新能源及有色金属日报 | 2026-01-28 供需双弱格局下，去库进度艰难 消费端：据SMM统计，有机硅DMC报价13800-14000（0）元/吨。近日国家取消光伏增值税出口退税政策，短期多 晶硅需求有上涨预期，多晶硅强出口有望提振工业硅需求端，短期的需求利好提振价格上行。铝硅合金企业开工 率小幅下降，有机硅维持错峰减排政策。铝合金下游需求呈现边际走弱，预计后续开工率以稳中偏弱为主。 供给端：1月产量环比减少接近20%，行业开工率降到历史低点，供给端有收缩趋势。 策略 工业硅价格预计将维持区间震荡，供需双减的情况下叠加煤炭价格与光伏产业链价格上涨传导效果，价格支撑明 显。上行高度取决于下游需求恢复和库存去化进度，下行空间则受成本支撑和减产预期限制。 单边：短期区间操作 工业硅： 跨期：无 期权：无 市场分析 2026-01-27，工业硅期货价格震荡下跌，主力合约2605开于8895元/吨，最后收于8860元/吨，较前一日结算变化（-70） 元/吨，变化（-0.78）%。截止收盘，2605主力合约持仓242625手，2026-01-26仓单总数为13115手，较前一日变化 144手。 供应端：工业硅现货价格 ...

Policy Overview - The Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration announced a differentiated adjustment to the export tax rebate policy for photovoltaic (PV) products, effective April 1, 2026, marking a strategic shift from subsidy-driven to market-driven growth[5] - The policy aims to address issues of overcapacity, price competition, and international trade friction in the PV manufacturing industry[4] Short-term Impacts - The export tax rebate for all PV products, including silicon wafers, solar cells, and modules, will be completely eliminated, with the previous 9% rebate rate reduced to 0%[6] - The export volume for polysilicon, silicon wafers, solar cells, and modules in 2024 is projected to be approximately 40,000 tons, 60.9 GW, 58.3 GW, and 236.2 GW, respectively, with module exports accounting for 40.2% of production[9] - The removal of the rebate will increase tax costs for exporting companies, leading to a significant drop in profitability; for example, the profit margin for solar modules will decrease from 7.73% to -0.17%[9] Long-term Effects - The policy is expected to accelerate the exit of less competitive small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) from the market, leading to a structural reshaping of the industry[10] - By eliminating reliance on export tax rebates, the industry will shift towards a focus on technology and value-driven competition, enhancing innovation and quality[11] - The market concentration in the PV manufacturing sector is projected to increase, with the CR5 market share for polysilicon, silicon wafers, solar cells, and modules expected to rise to 78%, 77%, 62%, and 63% respectively by 2025[12] Strategic Implications - The adjustment is seen as a proactive measure to mitigate international trade disputes and enhance the global competitiveness of Chinese PV products[13] - Companies with established overseas production capabilities will benefit from the policy, as they can mitigate risks associated with the removal of export rebates and tariffs[12]

Core Insights - The photovoltaic industry has responded to the "involution" competition by enhancing self-discipline, leading to improved profitability across the main industry chain and a significant recovery in prices [1] - The average prices of polysilicon, wafers, battery cells, and modules have increased by 38.9%, 2.2%, 0.4%, and 2.3% respectively since the beginning of the year [1] - Losses among main industry chain enterprises have narrowed, with third-quarter losses decreasing by over 5.6 billion yuan, a reduction of approximately 46.7% compared to the second quarter [1] Industry Performance - Despite a decline in operating revenue, the gross profit margin in the main industry chain has improved, indicating that photovoltaic companies are moving away from low-price, low-profit orders [1] - The new capacity growth trend in the main industry chain has been effectively controlled [1] - In the first ten months of the year, the export volume of photovoltaic products has shown signs of recovery, with total export value exceeding 24.4 billion USD, and the decline rate significantly narrowing compared to the same period in 2024 [1] Capacity and Utilization - As of the end of October, the installed capacity of photovoltaic power generation reached 114 million kilowatts, a year-on-year increase of 43.8% [1] - The proportion of photovoltaic power generation capacity in total installed capacity has increased from approximately 12% in 2020 to around 30% [1] - The share of photovoltaic power generation in total electricity consumption has risen from about 3.5% in 2020 to 11.6% [1] Future Directions - The National Energy Administration emphasizes the need for the photovoltaic industry to advocate for a competitive order centered on technological innovation, quality improvement, and service optimization [2] - The industry is encouraged to enhance its regulatory capabilities to meet diverse application needs, such as photovoltaic sand control, agricultural photovoltaic integration, and building-integrated photovoltaics [2] - There is a push to explore new non-electric utilization pathways and to integrate photovoltaic technology with green hydrogen, ammonia, and alcohol, directly addressing energy demands in commercial refrigeration, heating, and agricultural product drying [2]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [7] Core Views - The company reported a significant reduction in losses in Q1 2025, with operating cash flow remaining positive [5][12] - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 13.038 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 44%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of -2.134 billion yuan [2][5] - The company’s Q4 2024 revenue was 2.691 billion yuan, down 38% year-on-year, and the net profit was -794 million yuan [2][5] - For Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of 2.079 billion yuan, a 51% decrease year-on-year, with a net profit of -161 million yuan [2][5] Financial Performance - In 2024, the company's energy-saving and water-saving equipment contributed revenue of 3.002 billion yuan, with a gross margin of 26.77%, up 0.85 percentage points year-on-year [12] - The new energy equipment generated revenue of 946 million yuan, with a gross margin of 35.37%, down 9.42 percentage points year-on-year [12] - The photovoltaic products segment contributed revenue of 8.862 billion yuan, with a gross margin of -16.63% [12] - The company’s cash flow showed improvement, with Q4 2024 operating cash inflow of 1.074 billion yuan and Q1 2025 inflow of 358 million yuan [12] Future Outlook - The company is expected to see further improvement in Q2 2025 as equipment deliveries increase, contributing to profitability [12] - The backlog of orders for electrolyzers is robust, and the company is making progress in liquid cooling energy-saving equipment for data centers [12] - The photovoltaic industry is anticipated to recover as outdated capacity is phased out, leading to a return to reasonable profitability levels [12]