光伏政策：核心还是关注反内卷，但短期来看反内卷的推进仍存在一些堵点，收储方案尚未确定、受年底去库影响部分主材价格略有下滑，但行业反内卷的 决心依旧坚定，后续静待政策"花开"。 储能行业看，国内储能电芯的需求十分强劲，头部电池企业均表示工厂已处于满产状态，一些订单已经排到2026年年初。此外，国家发展改革委、国家能源 局印发《新型储能规模化建设专项行动方案（2025—2027年）》提出，2027年，全国新型储能装机规模达到1.8亿千瓦以上，带动项目直接投资约2500亿 元。随着中国储能电芯与电池系统规模化带来的单位成本下降，中国厂商在海外多个地区具有显著落地成本优势，能够以更低的LCOE中标大型项目。 CESA储能应用分会预测，到2030年底，全球累计储能装机规模将达1950GWh左右，未来全球储能市场仍将保持强劲发展态势。 新能源板块后市怎么看？ 展望后市，板块核心关注点依旧聚焦在储能需求、材料涨价、光伏政策三方面： 储能需求：一是关注国内各省的容量电价政策，预计仍有部分省份将在年底发布相关补贴政策；二是关注电池厂排产情况以及扩产进展；三是关注海外需求 情况，主要是跟踪国内头部储能厂商与海外AIDC合作配储项 ...

锂矿端：近期碳酸锂市场已呈现出情绪化特征，昨日价格突破10万元/吨，价格上涨核心支撑因素为近 期矿石供应短缺，但实际供需紧张程度并未达到当前价格所体现的水平，有一定的情绪因素影响。 材料端：近期市场核心关注材料厂商与头部电池厂的长协价格，以往头部电池厂的做法通常会是拖一 拖，今年不排除这种可能，但情况也不完全一样，因为今年电池厂下游客户的订单也排得很满，所以也 未必能够像以前那样拖很久。 早盘新能源板块回调幅度较大，主要系美联储降息节奏影响市场情绪，同时碳酸锂、铁锂正极、电解液 等细分板块前期上涨较快、交易相对充分，因此今日回调幅度相对较大。 综合而言，基本面并无明显变化，储能需求确定性向好，26Q1有望淡季不淡。但后续仍需持续关注市 场情绪，以及电池厂商后续排产情况，短期来看板块或将延续震荡态势。感兴趣的投资者可通过新能源 车ETF（159806）、光伏50ETF（159864）、创业板新能源ETF（159387）、碳中和50ETF（159861） 等产品，逢低布局板块投资机会。 基本面来看—— （文章来源：每日经济新闻） ...

11月18日新能源板块明显回调，主要系短期冲高后，部分资金有所兑现，但基本面并无明显变化， 下游需求依旧向好。 后续大致可以持续关注三个方向：方向一，景气延续，如储能、锂电池等，主要是看国内电池厂后 续的排产情况，以及春节假期的安排；方向二，困境反转，如光伏、锂电材料等，主要是关注各环节的 涨价情况；方向三，未来产业，如AIDC、固态电池等，主要关注美国市场表现，以及后续工信部验收 情况。综合来说，就是要关注高景气+供需边际好转的方向。 感兴趣的投资者可关注新能源板块布局机会： - 针对性：对锂电需求上修+固态电池突破感兴趣的投资者，可关注新能源车ETF（159806），锂电 池上中下游全覆盖，固态电池含量约65%；对反内卷概念感兴趣的投资者，可以关注光伏50ETF （159864）。 风险提示： 无论是股票ETF/LOF基金，都是属于较高预期风险和预期收益的证券投资基金品种，其预期收益及 预期风险水平高于混合型基金、债券型基金和货币市场基金。 基金资产投资于科创板和创业板股票，会面临因投资标的、市场制度以及交易规则等差异带来的特 有风险，提请投资者注意。 板块/基金短期涨跌幅列示仅作为文章分析观点之辅助材料 ...

Group 1 - The A-share market experienced a decline today, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.81%, the Shenzhen Component Index down 0.92%, and the ChiNext Index down 1.16%. The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 1.95 trillion yuan, an increase of 156 billion yuan compared to the previous day, with over 4,100 stocks declining [1] - The AI application sector rebounded this week after a period of adjustment, with major companies like Alibaba and Tencent launching new AI products. Alibaba introduced the Qianwen App, a personal AI assistant, while Tencent plans to launch a personal agent assistant within WeChat. ByteDance's Volcano Engine released the Doubao programming model, significantly reducing usage costs [1] - The current market environment is characterized by a lack of major adjustment risks, but upward momentum is weakening, leading to accelerated structural rotation. The market is expected to remain in a range-bound oscillation, with a focus on a "dumbbell" structure of technology and dividends for investment [1] Group 2 - The new energy sector saw a noticeable pullback today, primarily due to profit-taking after a recent surge, although the fundamentals remain strong with continued demand from downstream markets. Future attention should be paid to domestic battery production schedules and arrangements for the Spring Festival holiday, as well as the European electricity market's performance due to winter price increases [2] - Investors interested in the new energy sector can consider various ETFs, including the New Energy Vehicle ETF (159806), the Photovoltaic 50 ETF (159864), the ChiNext New Energy ETF (159387), and the Carbon Neutrality 50 ETF (159861) to capitalize on industry opportunities [2]

今日，新能源板块震荡回调，创业板新能源ETF（159387）跌近4%。 国金证券表示，全球缺电+降碳诉求驱动未来3-5年全球范围内清洁电源、新型电网建设大周期带来的丰 富投资机会，储能、绿氢氨醇是显著增量环节，风电、光伏、电网也仍将保持高强度投资。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） 能源领域政策频频下发，近期发改委、能源局先后印发《关于促进新能源消纳和调控的指导意见》、 《关于促进新能源集成融合发展的指导意见》两份重磅文件，全面指向十五五期间新能源行业高质量发 展。 ...

今日，新能源板块集体反弹，新能源车ETF（159806）大涨近6% 、创业板新能源ETF（159387）大涨 超5%、光伏50ETF（159864）大涨超3%。 近期新能源板块表现相对较好，主要围绕三条主线展开：一是储能领域，主要在交易国内外储能需求向 好。二是锂电领域，主要在关注各个环节的涨价情况。三是光伏领域，主要在博弈反内卷政策落地。 具体来看： 2）欧洲已起量爆发，阳光等国内企业持续落地签单，阳光份额冲至第一，今年签单量同比增长50%， 海博等企业后来者亦占据一定份额； 3）新兴市场爆发初期，阳光等企业签单量同比大幅增长。 国内方面，136号文引发国内储能商业模式变化、独立储能接棒新能源配储成为重要增长引擎独立储能 后续有望享受容量电价、峰谷价差、调峰调频可实现至少6~7%投资回报率。截至目前，内蒙古/河北等 六省发布独立储能项目合计103GWh，其中内蒙古最多达到49GWh，甘肃等省份容量电价政策陆续出 台，独立储能模式有望推广至全国；下半年看，判断独立储能有望接棒成为国内储能装机的重要增长引 擎，经济性驱动独立储能走向长期高成长空间。 2、固态电池，趋势增强： 固态电池产业近期迎来多重利好，新技术 ...

近期新能源板块表现相对较好，主要围绕三条主线展开：一是储能领域，主要在交易国内外储能需求向 好。二是锂电领域，主要在关注各个环节的涨价情况。三是光伏领域，主要在博弈反内卷政策落地。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） 另外，头部企业锁定订单：1）阿特斯旗下子公司阿特斯储能签下加拿大储能超级大单，规模达 1.86GWh；2）海博思创与宁德时代签订未来3年200GWh电芯供货协议，宁德确定保障并优先供应海博 的需求，在规模化锁量前提下，宁德会提供有竞争力的价格支持。再次印证储能需求广阔，优质产能并 不充沛，国内国外储能需求形成共振。 消息面，添加剂价格上涨，11月12日，电解液添加剂厂商山东亘元因设备故障需停产检修，已停止发 货。山东亘元VC产能占比约25%，停产检修将导致供不应求。价格端，VC散单价格跳涨，百川电池级 VC报价11万元/吨，单日上涨4.5万元/吨，环比增长68%。后续若亘元停产检修时间较长，VC价格或将 进一步上涨。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The China Photovoltaic Industry Association has issued a statement refuting false information circulating online, emphasizing that the industry is making steady progress and will combat malicious actions aimed at undermining the sector [1]. Group 1: Industry Developments - The photovoltaic industry is actively working together to counteract misinformation and maintain national and industry interests [1]. - The trend of price weakness in silicon wafers is influenced by year-end inventory adjustments, with expectations for a price recovery in January and February of the following year [1]. - The commitment to counteract "involution" in the industry remains strong, with policies regarding mergers and acquisitions of silicon materials and production limits expected to be implemented gradually [1]. Group 2: Future Opportunities - The renewable energy sector, including storage and solid-state batteries, presents potential investment opportunities worth monitoring [1].

Market Overview - The market experienced fluctuations today, with the three major indices opening high but closing lower, while the Shanghai Composite Index remained above 4000 points [1] - The trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was below 2 trillion, a decrease of 180.9 billion from the previous trading day [1] - Sector performance showed strength in gold, photovoltaic, and lithium battery sectors, while computing-related sectors declined [1] Gold Market Insights - Gold prices have stabilized and are expected to rise due to several factors: unsustainable high debt levels in major countries, strategic allocations by central banks, declining real interest rates, and increasing global risk events [3][4] - The U.S. federal debt has reached historical highs, raising concerns about systemic risks, with the debt-to-GDP ratio matching levels seen during World War II [3] - UBS reports that gold is increasingly viewed as a long-term strategic asset, with central banks diversifying reserves and retail investors buying gold through ETFs, potentially driving prices higher [4] Automotive Sector Developments - The Hong Kong automotive ETF rose by 2.01%, influenced by changes in China's new energy vehicle (NEV) purchase tax policy, which will shift from exemption to a 50% reduction starting January 1, 2026 [7] - Domestic sales of passenger vehicles are expected to improve in Q4 2025 due to the upcoming tax adjustments and the traditional sales peak at year-end [7] - Exports of passenger vehicles continue to show strong growth, with a 27.7% year-on-year increase in October, and NEV exports surged by 104.2%, accounting for 44% of total exports [7] Robotics and Intelligent Driving - XPeng Motors launched three self-developed Robotaxi models and initiated trial operations, marking a significant step in the commercialization of intelligent driving [8] - XPeng's new humanoid robot, IRON, is set for mass production by the end of 2026, featuring advanced design and capabilities [8] Renewable Energy Sector Trends - The renewable energy sector is performing well, focusing on three main areas: energy storage, lithium batteries, and photovoltaics [9][10] - Energy storage solutions are gaining traction due to the increasing demand from the AI industry, with a focus on building out infrastructure to support this growth [9] - The lithium battery sector is seeing improved supply-demand dynamics, with price increases across various segments, including electrolytes and cathodes [9] - The photovoltaic sector is expected to benefit from supportive policies and market dynamics, with a focus on reducing internal competition and enhancing operational health [10]

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in the new energy sector is primarily driven by the increasing electricity demand in North America, particularly due to the rapid growth of the AI industry and the anticipated power shortages in the region [2][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - Since the end of the National Day holiday, the Wind New Energy Index has risen by 14.29%, while the CSI 300 Index has only increased by 0.82% [1]. - The new energy sector's rise is seen as a long-term opportunity, supported by the growing demand for computing power in North America [1]. Group 2: North American Electricity Demand - North American AI industry growth is expected to significantly increase the demand for data center power, with predictions of a cumulative installed capacity of 30-100 GW over the next five years [2]. - The North American power grid is currently under pressure, with a projected electricity shortfall of approximately 73.2 GW from 2025 to 2030, which could escalate to 201 GW if data center growth exceeds expectations [2]. Group 3: Industry Opportunities - The anticipated electricity shortages in the U.S. are expected to benefit several industries, including power generation (diesel, gas, nuclear), grid interconnection, and data center power upgrades [3]. - Sectors such as energy storage, electrical equipment, and grid infrastructure are likely to see significant benefits from these developments [4]. Group 4: Policy and Fundamental Support - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes the acceleration of a new energy system, increasing the share of renewable energy, and developing new energy storage solutions [6]. - The new energy sector is positioned as a sunrise industry supported by long-term policies, aligning with national energy security and industrial upgrading goals [6]. Group 5: Industry Dynamics - The sector is experiencing a shift from chaotic competition to improved industry standards, with leading companies leveraging technological advantages and scale to eliminate inefficient capacity [8]. - Emerging areas such as new energy storage, green electricity trading, and hydrogen energy are opening new growth avenues for the sector [7]. Group 6: Demand and Technological Breakthroughs - The demand for lithium batteries is expected to continue rising due to ongoing developments in energy storage and commercial vehicle markets [10]. - Solid-state battery technology is making significant advancements, with breakthroughs expected to resolve existing limitations and enhance performance [10]. - The wind power sector is poised for a new growth cycle, particularly in offshore wind projects, supported by favorable policies and increasing installation rates [10]. Group 7: Investment Opportunities - Investors interested in lithium battery demand and solid-state battery breakthroughs may consider the New Energy Vehicle ETF (159806), which covers the entire lithium battery supply chain [13]. - For those focused on grid equipment, the Grid ETF (561380) is expected to benefit from increased electricity demand driven by AI and related policies [13].