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华创证券:自免疗法迈向双抗/多抗时代 国内市场空间提升潜力大
智通财经网· 2025-08-01 08:12
智通财经APP获悉,华创证券发布研报称,自身免疫疾病治疗市场作为全球第二大医药市场,在中国存 在巨大发展潜力。2022年全球自免市场规模达1323亿美元,值得注意的是,中国自免市场规模仅为肿瘤 市场的8%,远低于全球64.5%的比例,对标国际市场仍有较大提升空间。目前自免领域已产生多款抗体 类重磅药物,其中三款百亿美元的重磅药物跻身2024年全球药品销售额TOP10。 华创证券主要观点如下: 自免市场空间广阔,国内市场空间提升潜力大 自身免疫疾病是由于机体免疫系统异常而对自身抗原产生免疫反应进而导致自身机体损伤的一类疾病的 总称。 自免市场是仅次于肿瘤的第二大市场:根据Frost & Sullivan数据统计,2022年全球自免市场规模为1323 亿美元,2030年有望提升至1767亿美元,自免领域2022年-2030年复合增长率3.68%。 中国自免市场空间提升潜力大:根据Frost & Sullivan数据统计,2022年全球自免市场规模为肿瘤市场规 模的64.5%;而2022年国内自免和肿瘤市场分别为29亿美元及347亿美元,自免市场规模仅为肿瘤市场的 8%,对标国际市场仍有较大提升空间。 随着抗体的发 ...
创新药系列研究:自免疗法迈向双抗、多抗时代
Huachuang Securities· 2025-08-01 07:40
Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the autoimmune therapy market, suggesting significant growth potential and investment opportunities in the sector [8]. Core Insights - The autoimmune market is the second largest after oncology, with a global market size of $132.3 billion in 2022, projected to reach $176.7 billion by 2030, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 3.68% from 2022 to 2030 [8]. - The report highlights the potential for multi-target interventions to enhance treatment efficacy in autoimmune diseases, transitioning from monoclonal antibodies to bispecific and multispecific antibodies [19]. - The report emphasizes the significant market space for autoimmune therapies in China, where the autoimmune market size was only $2.9 billion in 2022, representing just 8% of the oncology market size of $34.7 billion, indicating substantial room for growth [8]. Market Overview - The global autoimmune drug market is expected to grow significantly, with the market size projected to increase from $1,323 million in 2022 to $1,767 million by 2030 [8]. - The report provides a detailed analysis of various autoimmune diseases, their prevalence, and the corresponding patient populations globally, including conditions like atopic dermatitis, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and rheumatoid arthritis [6][11]. Clinical Research Progress - The report outlines advancements in clinical research for dual-target and multi-target therapies, indicating a shift towards more effective treatment options for complex autoimmune diseases [19][22]. - It discusses the development of several blockbuster monoclonal antibody drugs in the autoimmune sector, with projected sales for top drugs in 2024, including Dupilumab at $14.15 billion and Risankizumab at $11.72 billion [9]. Key Companies to Watch - The report identifies key companies involved in the development of autoimmune therapies, including Sanofi, AbbVie, and Johnson & Johnson, highlighting their leading products and market positions [9][25].
从供需看,中国创新药能从海外分成多少钱?
Huafu Securities· 2025-06-09 05:05
Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the pharmaceutical industry [7] Core Insights - The report highlights that the Chinese innovative drug sector is poised to capitalize on the patent cliff faced by multinational corporations (MNCs), with a potential market space exceeding $240 billion due to the expiration of patents on 31 major drugs by 2037 [5][18] - It emphasizes that China has the largest number of innovative drug pipelines globally, particularly in cell therapy, ADCs, and bispecific antibodies, which positions it as a key player in the global market [5][32] - The report suggests that the ongoing trend of licensing out Chinese innovations to MNCs could lead to significant profit opportunities, estimating a net profit of approximately $8.2 billion from authorized projects between 2020 and 2025, translating to a potential market capitalization increase of $81.7 billion [5][46][47] Summary by Sections Market Review - The report notes that the CITIC Pharmaceutical Index rose by 1.2% during the week of June 3-6, 2025, outperforming the CSI 300 Index by 0.3 percentage points [4][48] - The pharmaceutical sector has shown a year-to-date increase of 8.3%, surpassing the CSI 300 Index by 9.9 percentage points [4][48] MNC Patent Cliff - The report identifies that 27 drugs with projected sales exceeding $4 billion in 2024 will face patent expiration by 2037, leading to a potential loss of approximately $244.3 billion for MNCs [18][19] - Specific drugs mentioned include Merck's Keytruda and Pfizer's Eliquis, which are expected to face significant sales declines post-patent expiration [19][20] Supply and Demand Dynamics - China leads globally in the number of innovative drug pipelines, particularly in cell therapy and ADCs, with 58% of these drugs currently in clinical phase I trials [32][33] - The report indicates that Chinese companies are involved in 716 research tracks, ranking first in development progress [32][33] Transaction Trends - The report highlights a significant increase in global pharmaceutical transactions, with the number of deals rising from 358 in 2015 to 743 in 2024, and total transaction value increasing from $56.9 billion to $187.4 billion [36][39] - Chinese companies accounted for 30% of global transaction value in 2024, with a total of $57.1 billion in deals [39][40] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with strong overseas clinical progress and those with potential for significant licensing deals, including Innovent Biologics, Eddingpharm, and others [5][6] - It also recommends monitoring companies that have received approval for commercialization, such as BeiGene and Kingsoft Biopharma [5][6]