2026 年 03 月 20 日 公司研究 评级：买入(维持) 研究所： | 相对恒生指数表现 | | | 2026/03/19 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 表现 | 1M | 3M | 12M | | 吉利汽车 | 7.6% | 8.1% | 4.0% | | 恒生指数 | -4.5% | -0.7% | 2.9% | | 市场数据 | | | 2026/03/19 | | 当前价格（港元） | | | 18.34 | | 周价格区间（港元） 52 | | | 12.94-20.90 | | 总市值（百万港元） | | | 197,817.28 | | 流通市值（百万港元） | | | 197,817.28 | | 总股本（万股） | | | 1,083,146.23 | | 流通股本（万股） | | | 1,083,146.23 | | 日均成交额（百万港元） | | | 1,494.47 | | 近一月换手（%） | | | 12.77 | 相关报告 《吉利汽车（00175）销量点评：1-2 月累计销量 同比微增，出口表现亮眼（买入）*乘用车*戴畅， 胡惠民》——2026 ...

2026年3月18日 ・・ 吉利汽车控股有限公司（简称"吉利汽车"） (0175.HK ) 发布2025年全年业绩 销量首破300万辆 市占率首超10% 收入利润双增长 3,452亿元, 同比增长25%↑ 收入再破新高 单位:人民币(亿元),同比增长(%) 3.452 2.759 25% ● 2024 2025 2025年市占率* 10.05%, 同比增长27% 连续四年提升,创历史新高 10.05% 7.90% 6.47% 6.08% 2022 2023 2024 2025 一张图带你看懂 吉利汽车2025年全年业绩 > 01 收入、利润双增长 盈利能力稳步增长 2025年总收入 同比增长了 2025年总现金水平 682 亿元 同比增长40 货币单位:人民币 数据统计周期：2025年1月1日-12月31日 *市占率指总销量占按发运口径的中国国内市场和出口市场总销量占比 **指不包含外汇汇兑税后归母净收益、非金融资产之减值亏损及视为出售附属公司及出售一间合营公司部分权益之净收益 02 油电并举,燃油、插混、纯电 户端站 出来日 2025年核心归母净利润** 明大 | 柳 明 里 二 出 上 明 。 上 出 上 ...

Group 1 - The article highlights the upcoming product launch cycle for major automotive companies in March and April 2026, with significant new models expected from BYD, Huawei, Xiaomi, and others [2][3] - BYD plans to host a technology day after March 7, introducing several new models including the Song Max/Ultra, Qin Max, and various updated versions of existing models [2] - Other companies like Xpeng, Li Auto, and NIO are also set to unveil new models, with Xpeng's G pre-sale starting in March and NIO's ES9 expected to launch in late March [3] Group 2 - The article mentions that CATL is focusing on the energy storage market, which is growing faster than the power battery sector [13] - BYD is expanding its presence in Southeast Asia, indicating a strategic move to tap into emerging markets [13]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the humanoid robot industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector [2][6]. Core Insights - The humanoid robot industry is experiencing significant growth, with a projected 28% increase in industrial robot production by 2025, and over 300 humanoid robot models launched by Chinese companies, accounting for more than half of the global total [3][4]. - The Chinese government is actively supporting the development of the humanoid robot industry, emphasizing the importance of original innovation and key technology breakthroughs during the "Two Sessions" [4]. - Tesla's Cortex 2 supercomputer is set to enhance the training capabilities for its Optimus robot, indicating a strong commitment to advancing AI and robotics technology [3]. Summary by Sections Humanoid Robot Sector - The Huaxin humanoid robot index fell by 6.55% this week, but has a cumulative return of 99.6% since 2025 [18]. - The sector's trading volume accounted for 13.9% of the CSI 2000 index, indicating a relatively high level of market activity [18]. - Among the sub-sectors, the reducer segment performed relatively well, while other components like dexterous hands and screws saw declines [21]. Automotive Sector - The CITIC automotive index decreased by 2.6%, underperforming the broader market [34]. - The commercial vehicle index showed better performance compared to passenger vehicles and other segments [35]. - Key companies such as Changyuan Donggu and Feilong shares saw significant gains, while others like Daimai and Tianpu shares experienced notable declines [40]. Key Companies and Profit Forecasts - Recommended companies include: - Mould Technology (EPS forecast: 0.68 in 2024, PE: 18.88) [11] - Shuanglin Co. (EPS forecast: 1.24 in 2024, PE: 26.81) [11] - New Spring Co. (EPS forecast: 2.00 in 2024, PE: 39.76) [11] - The report highlights the importance of components such as joints, screws, and motors in the humanoid robot sector, recommending specific companies for investment [10].

Group 1 - Hyundai Motor Group announced an investment of approximately 9 trillion KRW in the new city of Wanjin, focusing on AI data centers, robotics, and hydrogen industries, marking a significant step in strengthening its future industry layout [2] - NIO has registered a new company, NIO Battery Technology (Shanghai) Co., Ltd., with a registered capital of 100 million RMB, aimed at accelerating solid-state battery research and development, highlighting the importance of its battery technology leadership [2] - GAC Aion announced that the Aion RT battery swap version will be launched in April, supporting both charging and battery swapping, with a full charge achievable in 99 seconds, and the current Aion RT models priced between 99,800 to 123,800 RMB [2] Group 2 - Geely's new mid-size plug-in hybrid SUV, the Galaxy M7, is set to launch in April, offering six color options to cater to diverse consumer preferences [2]

Core Viewpoint - Dongfang Securities maintains a "Buy" rating for Geely Automobile (00175), predicting net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 to be 17.041 billion, 20.604 billion, and 24.318 billion yuan respectively, with a target price of 23.54 HKD based on a PE average valuation of 11 times for comparable companies [1] Sales Performance - In January and February 2026, Geely's cumulative sales achieved a year-on-year growth of 1.0%, with total sales in February reaching 206,200 units, a 0.6% increase year-on-year [2] - The automotive market in January 2026 was in a policy transition phase, leading to weak overall demand, but Geely's sales growth indicates strong product competitiveness [2] Export Growth - Geely's export sales in February reached 60,900 units, a year-on-year increase of 138.3%, with cumulative exports for January and February at 121,400 units, up 129.4% year-on-year [3][4] - The launch of Geely's new energy series in the UAE, including the Geely EX5EM-i and Lynk & Co 900, marks a significant step in its global strategy, with plans for further expansion into Southeast Asia, Latin America, and Central Asia [4] Brand Development - Zeekr brand sales in February reached 23,900 units, a 70.0% year-on-year increase, while Lynk & Co sales were 27,400 units, up 58.7% year-on-year [5] - The high-end positioning of the Zeekr brand is showing results, with the Zeekr 9X maintaining its position as the best-selling large SUV, and the upcoming Zeekr 8X expected to enhance the brand's market presence [5]

Core Viewpoint - Dongfang Securities maintains a "Buy" rating for Geely Automobile (00175), predicting net profit for 2025-2027 to be 17.041 billion, 20.604 billion, and 24.318 billion yuan respectively, with a target price of 23.54 HKD based on a 26-year average PE of 11 times [1] Sales Performance - In February 2026, Geely's total sales reached 206,200 units, a year-on-year increase of 0.6%, with cumulative sales for January-February at 476,300 units, up 1.0% year-on-year [1] - The automotive market in January 2026 was in a transitional policy phase, leading to weak overall demand, but Geely's sales growth indicates strong product competitiveness [1] - The release of pent-up consumer demand is expected as national subsidies for vehicle replacements are gradually implemented [1] Export Growth - Geely's brand sales in February reached 154,900 units, with new energy vehicle sales at 117,500 units, marking a year-on-year increase of 19.4% and a new energy sales ratio of 57.0% [2] - Exports in February totaled 60,900 units, a year-on-year increase of 138.3%, with cumulative exports for January-February at 121,400 units, up 129.4% [2][3] Global Expansion - Geely's overseas strategy is gaining momentum, with the launch of new energy models in the UAE market, including the Geely EX5 EM-i and Lynk & Co 900, which will also enter Southeast Asia, Latin America, and Central Asia in 2026 [3] - The global expansion is expected to significantly contribute to the company's annual performance, with a focus on enhancing the new energy product matrix and high-end brand positioning [3] Brand Development - Zeekr brand sales in February reached 23,900 units, a year-on-year increase of 70.0%, while Lynk & Co sales were 27,400 units, up 58.7% [4] - The Zeekr 9X has been the best-selling large SUV for three consecutive months, and the upcoming Zeekr 8X is anticipated to further strengthen the brand's high-end market position [4] - The integration of Zeekr with Geely's strategy is expected to yield collaborative and scale effects in the future [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Geely Automobile is maintained as "Buy" with a target price of 23.54 HKD [3][6]. Core Insights - Geely's export sales continue to grow significantly, with a year-on-year increase of 138.3% in February and 129.4% for the cumulative sales in January-February [10]. - The company is focusing on high-end brand development and expanding its overseas market presence, which is expected to contribute significantly to its performance in 2026 [10]. - The forecasted net profit attributable to the parent company for 2025-2027 is projected to be 17.04 billion, 20.60 billion, and 24.32 billion CNY respectively, indicating a strong growth trajectory [3]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue for 2023 is projected at 179.20 billion CNY, with a year-on-year growth of 21.1%, and is expected to reach 448.69 billion CNY by 2027 [5][11]. - Operating profit is forecasted to grow from 3.81 billion CNY in 2023 to 23.17 billion CNY in 2027, reflecting a significant increase in profitability [5][11]. - The net profit margin is expected to improve from 3.0% in 2023 to 5.4% in 2027, indicating enhanced operational efficiency [5][11]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to increase from 0.49 CNY in 2023 to 2.23 CNY in 2027 [5][11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Geely Automobile [3][6] Core Views - Geely's export sales continue to grow, and the brand's high-end positioning is gradually showing results [2] - The company is expected to achieve significant net profit growth, with forecasts of 17.04 billion, 20.60 billion, and 24.32 billion RMB for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, maintaining a target price of 23.54 HKD [3] - The report highlights the strong competitive position of Geely's products, as evidenced by positive sales growth despite a challenging market environment [10] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue projections for 2023A to 2027E are as follows: 179.20 billion, 240.19 billion, 319.44 billion, 387.36 billion, and 448.69 billion RMB, with year-on-year growth rates of 21.1%, 34.0%, 33.0%, 21.3%, and 15.8% respectively [5][11] - Operating profit is projected to increase significantly, with figures of 3.81 billion, 7.64 billion, 16.06 billion, 19.62 billion, and 23.17 billion RMB for the same years, reflecting growth rates of 4.3%, 100.8%, 110.0%, 22.2%, and 18.1% [5][11] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to grow from 5.31 billion RMB in 2023A to 24.32 billion RMB in 2027E, with growth rates of 0.9%, 213.3%, 2.5%, 20.9%, and 18.0% [5][11] - The earnings per share (EPS) are projected to rise from 0.49 RMB in 2023A to 2.23 RMB in 2027E [5][11] Sales and Market Position - In February 2026, Geely's total sales reached 206,200 units, a year-on-year increase of 0.6%, with cumulative sales for January and February at 476,300 units, up 1.0% year-on-year [10] - Geely's export volume in February was 60,900 units, a significant year-on-year increase of 138.3%, indicating successful overseas expansion [10] - The high-end brands, Zeekr and Lynk & Co, showed strong sales growth, with Zeekr's sales in February increasing by 70.0% year-on-year [10]

Core Viewpoint - The automotive industry is shifting towards high-quality development, reducing internal competition among companies while focusing on technological advancements to attract users [1][2]. Group 1: Key Models to Watch - Xiaomi's YU9 is expected to be a significant player in 2025, likely to continue the sales success of its predecessors SU7 and YU7, and is anticipated to be unveiled mid-year [4][8][10]. - Awenjie M6 is positioned as a new sales leader for the brand, filling a gap in the 250,000 RMB market segment with its competitive features and pricing [11][14][16]. - NIO's ES9 is set to be a high-end offering in the large SUV market, with production already underway and a launch expected in Q2 [19][24][26]. - The updated Li Auto L9 Livis is introducing advanced technology and features, aiming to establish a strong market presence in 2026 [28][32][33]. - XPeng's GX is focusing on L4 autonomous driving technology, with a unique design and high-performance specifications [34][39][41]. - Leap Motor's A10 is entering the market with a focus on affordability and advanced features, targeting the 70,000 to 100,000 RMB segment [42][46]. - Geely's Galaxy M7 is designed to enhance brand visibility and prepare for international expansion, showcasing efficient powertrains and appealing design [49][50][52]. Group 2: Industry Trends and Developments - The automotive sector is witnessing a trend towards larger SUVs, with multiple brands focusing on this segment to capture market share [21][22]. - Companies are increasingly showcasing new models internationally to enhance brand recognition and appeal to global markets [49]. - The competition is intensifying as brands like Tesla face delays in product launches, allowing Chinese manufacturers to gain a competitive edge in performance and technology [66][70][74].