投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货国债期货早报（2025 年 10 月 10 日） ◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TL2512 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡偏强 | 震荡 | 中长期降息预期仍存，短期全面 降息可能性较低 | 参考观点：震荡 核心逻辑：昨日国债期货均震荡小幅上涨。由于宏观经济需求端仍需要偏宽松的货币环境，中长期来 看未来货币政策偏向宽松，国债期货下方支撑较强。不过短期内股市风险偏好较强压制了购债需求， 且短期内全面降息的必要性不高，国债期货短期内上行动能有限。国庆之后，央行公开市场灵活管理 流动性，加量续作买断式逆回购，保持流动性相对平稳。总的来说，短期内国债期货上行动能与下行 空间均有限，以底部震荡整理为主。 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） 专业研究·创造价值 1/2 请务必阅读文末免责条款 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints The report presents a comprehensive overview of the weekly price and volume data of various futures products, including their closing prices, weekly price changes, 20 - day annualized volatility, volatility changes, speculation degrees, trend degrees, and capital changes. It also shows the year - to - date price changes and weekly average position and capital changes of these products, which helps investors understand the market trends and potential investment opportunities in different futures sectors [2][4][14]. 3. Summary by Category 3.1 Commodity Futures - **Precious Metals**: Gold had a closing price of 856.06 with a 20 - day annualized volatility of 3.07% and a volatility change of 14.14%. Silver closed at 10,632.00, with a 20 - day annualized volatility of 6.63% and a volatility change of 23.21% [2]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper closed at 82,470.00, with a 20 - day annualized volatility of 3.28% and a volatility change of 14.48%. Nickel, aluminum, tin, zinc, and lead also had their respective price and volatility data [2]. - **Black Metals**: Products like iron ore, coke, and coking coal showed significant price changes. For example, iron ore closed at 790.00 with a weekly price change of 17.43% [2]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: Crude oil closed at 491.30 with a weekly price change of 25.02%. Other products such as fuel oil, LPG, and PVC also had their price and volatility information [2]. - **Agricultural Products**: Products like soybeans, cotton, and sugar had different price trends. For instance, soybeans (bean one) closed at 3,935.00 with a weekly price change of 8.95% [2]. 3.2 Financial Futures - IC closed at 7,080.00 with a weekly price change of 1.37% and a 20 - day annualized volatility of 26.69%. IF, IM, IH, T, TS, and TF also had their corresponding price and volatility data [4]. 3.3 Year - to - Date Price Changes - Precious metals like silver and gold had relatively high year - to - date price increases, while some products such as industrial silicon and线材 had significant price decreases [14]. 3.4 Weekly Average Position and Capital Changes - Zinc, copper, lead, nickel, and tin had significant increases in their positions. Copper, silver, gold, apple, and fuel oil attracted more capital attention [16][17][18].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report - On August 27, the yields of treasury bond cash bonds strengthened collectively, with the yields of 1Y - 7Y maturities declining by about 0.15 - 0.75bp, and the yields of 10Y and 30Y maturities declining by about 0.20bp to 1.76% and 1.99% respectively. Treasury bond futures also strengthened collectively, with the TS, TF, T, and TL main contracts rising by 0.02%, 0.07%, 0.08%, and 0.24% respectively. The weighted average rate of DR007 rose to around 1.51% and fluctuated. - In terms of the domestic fundamentals, the profits of industrial enterprises above the designated size in July decreased by 1.5% year - on - year, and the profit decline has narrowed for two consecutive months. In July, industrial added value and social retail sales fell more than expected, the scale of fixed - asset investment continued to shrink, and the unemployment rate remained stable. In July, the financial data showed structural differentiation, with government bonds continuing to support the increase in social financing, while the medium - and long - term financing momentum of enterprises and residents was still insufficient, and new loans turned negative. - The Ministry of Commerce will introduce several policies to expand service consumption in September, which will promote the recovery of consumption growth. Overseas, the Fed Chairman's speech at the central bank annual meeting increased market bets on a Fed rate cut in September. As bond yields approach the high point in mid - March this year, the allocation value has significantly increased, and allocation demand is expected to effectively support the market. The bond market's sensitivity to external factors such as the rise of the stock market may weaken marginally. - If the fluctuations in the capital and fundamental aspects are limited, the subsequent strengthening of the equity market is expected to have a limited impact on the bond market. The bond market pricing is expected to gradually return to the rational range dominated by fundamentals. However, in the context of the monetary policy focusing on structural tools, the interest rate center lacks the impetus to decline further. Strategically, it is recommended to pay attention to the trading opportunities brought by the phased repair of treasury bond futures. [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Futures Prices and Volumes**: The closing prices of the T, TF, TS, and TL main contracts increased by 0.08%, 0.07%, 0.02%, and 0.24% respectively. The trading volumes of the T and TL main contracts increased by 3956 and 22208 respectively, while the trading volumes of the TF and TS main contracts decreased by 8338 and 5141 respectively. - **Futures Spreads**: The spreads of TL2512 - 2509, T12 - TL12, TF2512 - 2509, TS12 - T12, TS12 - TF12 decreased, while the spreads of T2512 - 2509 and TF12 - T12 increased. - **Futures Positions**: The positions of the T, TF, and TS main contracts increased by 1656, 1959, and 612 respectively, while the position of the TL main contract decreased by 1148. The net short positions of the T, TF, and TL decreased by 764, 63, and 2459 respectively, while the net short position of the TS increased by 221. [2] 3.2 CTD Bonds - The net prices of most CTD bonds increased, such as 220019.IB, 220017.IB, 230006.IB, etc., while the net price of 220022.IB decreased. [2] 3.3 Active Treasury Bonds - The yields of active treasury bonds with maturities of 1y, 3y, 5y, 7y, and 10y decreased by 1.25bp, 0.50bp, 1.00bp, 0.25bp, and 0.25bp respectively. [2] 3.4 Short - term Interest Rates - The silver - pledged overnight rate increased by 14.05bp, the Shibor overnight rate decreased by 0.20bp, the silver - pledged 7 - day rate decreased by 4.28bp, the Shibor 7 - day rate increased by 2.40bp, the silver - pledged 14 - day rate increased by 1.00bp, and the Shibor 14 - day rate increased by 1.10bp. The 1y and 5y LPR rates remained unchanged. [2] 3.5 Open Market Operations - The issuance scale of open market operations was 3799 billion yuan, the maturity scale was 6160 billion yuan, and the interest rate was 1.4% for 7 - day operations, with a net withdrawal of 2361 billion yuan. [2] 3.6 Industry News - From January to July, the total profit of industrial enterprises above the designated size was 40203.5 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 1.7%. In July, the profit decreased by 1.5% year - on - year. At the end of July, the total assets of industrial enterprises above the designated size were 183.67 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.9%; the total liabilities were 106.26 trillion yuan, an increase of 5.1%; the owner's equity was 77.41 trillion yuan, an increase of 4.6%; the asset - liability ratio was 57.9%, a year - on - year increase of 0.2 percentage points. - Six departments in Shanghai jointly issued a notice to optimize and adjust real estate policies, including unlimited housing purchases outside the outer ring for eligible families, adjusting housing purchase restrictions for single adults, increasing the provident fund loan limit for green buildings by 15%, implementing the "withdrawal and loan" policy for provident funds, unifying mortgage rates for first and second - home purchases, and fine - tuning property tax collection policies. - The Deputy Minister of Commerce stated that the consumption pattern in China has shifted to a stage where commodity consumption and service consumption are equally important. The Ministry of Commerce will introduce policies to expand service consumption in September. [2] 3.7 Key Events to Watch - On August 28 at 17:00, the Eurozone's industrial sentiment index for August will be released. - On August 29 at 20:30, the annual rate of the US core PCE price index for July will be released. [3]

Group 1: Financial Futures and Options - Stock Index Futures - Investment Rating: Not provided - Core View: The intraday view is oscillating with a slight upward bias, and the medium - term view is bullish. The global risk sentiment is boosted by the dovish stance of the Fed Chair at the Jackson Hole Symposium, and the market expects two rate cuts this year. The market volume is high, and policy measures are in place to boost domestic demand [1]. - Key Points: - Hold long positions in IF2509 and IO - 4300 - P put options for protection [1]. - Overseas, the Fed's possible rate cut in September boosts global risk sentiment and benefits the valuation of science - and - technology - related sectors [1]. - In terms of capital sentiment, market volume is high, margin trading balance is stable above 2.1 trillion, and the proportion of margin trading balance to market capitalization has risen to 2.30%. Leverage funds are actively entering the market. Equity ETFs have net inflows [1]. - Policy - wise, the State Council is promoting policies to expand domestic demand [1]. Group 2: Financial Futures and Options - Treasury Bond Futures - Investment Rating: Not provided - Core View: The intraday view is a continued rebound, and the medium - term view is a rebound in the making. The bond market is expected to return to an upward trend in the long - term [2][3]. - Key Points: - Hold long positions in TL2512 [2]. - The central bank's MLF operation has led to a large - scale net injection, and the inter - bank market funds are abundant. Short - term interest rates have declined [3]. - The stock - bond seesaw effect is weakening. Although the equity market is strong in the short - term, the bond market is expected to rise in the long - term [3]. - Economic data in July showed a slowdown, indicating that the bond market is unlikely to shift from a bull to a bear market [3]. Group 3: Commodity Futures and Options - Metal and New Energy Materials - Copper - Investment Rating: Not provided - Core View: The intraday view is a range - bound movement between 79,290 and 80,100, and the medium - term view is a range - bound movement between 60,000 and 90,000. The price is expected to rise with some support factors [4][5]. - Key Points: - Adopt an operation idea of oscillating with a slight upward bias [5]. - The expectation of a Fed rate cut in September provides macro - level support for copper prices [4]. - The supply side is tightening, with some mines approaching export quotas and potential production cuts by refineries. However, some producers have different production trends [4]. - The demand side is positive, with an increase in global refined copper consumption, growth in China's power grid investment, and a significant increase in global energy - storage battery shipments [4]. Group 4: Commodity Futures and Options - Metal and New Energy Materials - Industrial Silicon - Investment Rating: Not provided - Core View: The intraday and medium - term views are both bullish. The price is expected to be strong [8]. - Key Points: - Adopt a bullish trading idea [8]. - In July, China's industrial silicon production decreased by 30.56% year - on - year [8]. - As of August 21, the social inventory of industrial silicon is at a high level in the past seven years, which is a negative factor for prices [8]. - The "Kunming Initiative" in the industrial silicon industry aims to boost prices [9]. Group 5: Commodity Futures and Options - Metal and New Energy Materials - Polysilicon - Investment Rating: Not provided - Core View: The intraday and medium - term views are both bullish. The price is expected to be strong [10]. - Key Points: - Adopt a bullish trading idea [10]. - In June, China's polysilicon production decreased by 33.11% year - on - year [10]. - As of August 21, the social inventory of polysilicon increased week - on - week, indicating an obvious oversupply [12]. - The "anti - involution" expectation boosts polysilicon prices [13]. Group 6: Commodity Futures and Options - Metal and New Energy Materials - Aluminum - Investment Rating: Not provided - Core View: The intraday view is high - level operation, and the medium - term view is bullish. The price is supported by supply and demand factors [14]. - Key Points: - Sell AL2510 - P - 19300 put options [14]. - China's electrolytic aluminum production capacity has limited room for growth after the 2017 supply - side reform [14]. - As of August 21, the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum is at the second - lowest level in the past five years, which is positive for prices [14]. - China's automobile production and sales have increased year - on - year, which is beneficial for aluminum prices [14]. Group 7: Commodity Futures and Options - Metal and New Energy Materials - Lithium Carbonate - Investment Rating: Not provided - Core View: The intraday view is wide - range fluctuations, and the medium - term view is oscillating with a slight upward bias. The price is affected by supply, inventory, and market information [17]. - Key Points: - Adopt a bullish trading idea but operate cautiously [17][18]. - On August 25, the price of lithium carbonate declined for three consecutive days, but increased in the past 30 days [17]. - In July 2025, China's battery - grade lithium carbonate production increased by 51% year - on - year, and the total inventory is at a high level this year, which is negative for prices [17]. Group 8: Commodity Futures and Options - Black and Building Materials - Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - Investment Rating: Not provided - Core View: The short - term view is a decline with limited downside, and the medium - term view is a lack of upward momentum. The cost support for steel prices is weakening [19]. - Key Points: - Continue to hold short positions in out - of - the - money put options on rebar, such as RB2510 - P - 2900 [19]. - The supply of iron ore and coking coal is expected to increase, weakening the cost support for steel prices [19]. - Policy - based production restrictions are less than expected, and steel production is still high. The inventory of rebar and hot - rolled coil has been accumulating, reducing the upward momentum [19][20]. Group 9: Commodity Futures and Options - Agriculture, Livestock, and Soft Commodities - Sugar - Investment Rating: Not provided - Core View: The intraday view is bearish, and the medium - term view is that there is strong support at the bottom. The global sugar supply and demand situation is complex [21]. - Key Points: - There is strong support at the bottom. The reference range for Zhengzhou sugar is (5,500, 5,900) [21]. - Brazil's sugar production and exports decreased in July. India is expected to have a large increase in production in the new season, and Thailand is also expected to increase production [21]. - In China, the production of refined sugar is at a historical high, and the supply is expected to be more abundant with the listing of Inner Mongolia's beet sugar [21]. Group 10: Commodity Futures and Options - Agriculture, Livestock, and Soft Commodities - Protein Meal - Investment Rating: Not provided - Core View: The intraday view is that soybean meal 2601 will continue to oscillate in the range of [3,075, 3,175], and the medium - term view is that it will fluctuate significantly in August and September. The market is affected by the production of US soybeans and Canadian rapeseed [22]. - Key Points: - Continue to hold short positions in soybean oil 2601 and long positions in palm oil 2601 [22]. - The average yield of US corn and soybeans is expected to reach a record high. The situation of US soybean exports to China needs attention [22][23]. - The harvest of Canadian rapeseed is approaching, and the production is expected to increase significantly [24]. Group 11: Commodity Futures and Options - Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil - Investment Rating: Not provided - Core View: The short - term view is that there is upward potential, and the long - term view is that prices are under pressure. The oil market is affected by supply, demand, and geopolitical factors [25][27]. - Key Points: - Sell out - of - the - money put options on SC crude oil [25]. - OPEC+ is maintaining its production increase strategy, and the supply of heavy - oil is still tight due to geopolitical factors. The US oil production growth is expected to slow down [26]. - The demand for gasoline in the US is seasonally declining, and the diesel demand is expected to improve. The inventory is expected to accumulate in the third quarter [27]. Group 12: Commodity Futures and Options - Energy and Chemicals - PVC - Investment Rating: Not provided - Core View: The intraday view is a stable rebound, and the medium - term view is that there is support at the bottom. The PVC market is affected by cost, supply, demand, and inventory factors [28]. - Key Points: - Continue to hold short positions in out - of - the - money put options on PVC [28]. - The price of calcium carbide has increased due to reduced supply. The supply of PVC has decreased recently but is expected to increase in the future [28][29]. - The demand for PVC is weak, and the inventory is currently accumulating. However, the inventory is expected to decrease in the future, and the export may recover [29][30].

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - **Financial Futures and Options**: The global risk sentiment is boosted by the Fed's dovish stance, and the A - share market shows positive signs in terms of funds and policies. The bond market is affected by factors such as capital liquidity, the stock - bond relationship, and economic fundamentals [1][3]. - **Commodity Futures and Options**: Different commodities have different supply - demand situations and price trends. For example, nickel is expected to trade in a range, while industrial silicon, polysilicon, and aluminum are expected to show a relatively strong performance [4][6][12]. - **Black and Building Materials**: The prices of steel products are under pressure due to changes in raw material supply - demand and limited policy - driven production cuts [15][17]. - **Agricultural and Livestock Products**: The sugar market shows different trends at home and abroad, and the protein meal market is affected by factors such as crop yields and trade policies [18][20]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: The LPG market is affected by supply, demand, and cost factors, and the PVC market is influenced by cost, supply, demand, and inventory factors [24][27]. 3. Summary by Category Financial Futures and Options - **Stock Index Futures (IF, IH, IC, IM)**: - **Intraday View**: Oscillate with a slight upward bias [1] - **Medium - term View**: Bullish - **Reference Strategy**: Hold long positions in IF2509 and buy IO - 4300 - P put options for protection - **Core Logic**: Dovish Fed stance, high market trading volume, and positive policies [1] - **Treasury Bond Futures (TS, TF, T, TL)**: - **Intraday View**: Fluctuate widely and wait for a rebound - **Medium - term View**: Accumulate strength for a rebound - **Reference Strategy**: Hold long positions in TL2512 - **Core Logic**: Ample capital liquidity, the stock - bond relationship, and slow economic recovery [2][3] Commodity Futures and Options - **Nickel**: - **Intraday View**: Trade in the range of 118,000 - 124,000 - **Medium - term View**: Trade in the range of 115,000 - 132,000 - **Reference Strategy**: Sell N2509I - C - 124000 and NI2509 - P - 116000 - **Core Logic**: Complex supply - demand factors, including production in Indonesia, stainless - steel production, and battery demand [4][5] - **Industrial Silicon**: - **Intraday View**: Run strongly in the range of 8,700 - 9,000 - **Medium - term View**: Run strongly in the range of 8,500 - 9,500 - **Reference Strategy**: Adopt a bullish approach - **Core Logic**: Decreased production, decreased demand, high inventory, and industry initiatives [6][7] - **Polysilicon**: - **Intraday View**: Run strongly in the range of 50,000 - 53,000 - **Medium - term View**: Run strongly in the range of 45,000 - 65,000 - **Reference Strategy**: Adopt a bullish approach - **Core Logic**: Decreased production, decreased demand, high inventory, and "anti - involution" expectations [8][9][11] - **Aluminum**: - **Intraday View**: Trade at a high level in the range of 20,600 - 20,900 - **Medium - term View**: Run strongly in the range of 19,500 - 21,000 - **Reference Strategy**: Sell AL2509 - P - 19300 put options - **Core Logic**: Limited production capacity increase, low inventory, and strong demand in the automotive market [12] - **Lithium Carbonate**: - **Intraday View**: Fluctuate widely in the range of 75,000 - 85,000 - **Medium - term View**: Oscillate with a slight upward bias in the range of 70,000 - 100,000 - **Reference Strategy**: Adopt a bullish approach - **Core Logic**: High supply, high inventory, and price fluctuations affected by industry information [13] Black and Building Materials - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: - **Intraday View**: Decline in the short term but with limited downside space - **Medium - term View**: Lack of upward momentum - **Reference Strategy**: Continue to hold short positions in out - of - the - money put options on rebar, such as RB2510 - P - 2900 - **Core Logic**: Changes in raw material supply - demand and limited policy - driven production cuts [15][17] Agricultural and Livestock Products - **Sugar**: - **Intraday View**: Weak performance - **Medium - term View**: Strong support at the bottom - **Reference Strategy**: The price has strong support at the bottom - **Core Logic**: Different trends at home and abroad, with potential supply increases in major producing countries [18] - **Protein Meal**: - **Intraday View**: The price of soybean meal 2601 will continue to oscillate in the range of [3075, 3175] - **Medium - term View**: The price of soybean meal 2601 will fluctuate sharply in August and September - **Reference Strategy**: Exit the short - soybean meal 2601 and long - rapeseed meal 2601 strategy; continue to hold the short - soybean oil 2601 and long - palm oil 2601 strategy - **Core Logic**: Crop yields in North America and trade policies between the US and China [20][22] Energy and Chemicals - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG)**: - **Intraday View**: Oscillate with a slight upward bias - **Medium - term View**: Face pressure - **Reference Strategy**: Hold short positions in out - of - the - money call options on PG2510 - **Core Logic**: Decreased supply, low demand, and rising costs in the short term, but an overall loose supply - demand pattern in the long term [24][25] - **PVC**: - **Intraday View**: Stabilize and rebound - **Medium - term View**: Supported at the bottom - **Reference Strategy**: Continue to hold short positions in out - of - the - money put options on PVC - **Core Logic**: Rising raw material costs, decreased supply, weak demand, high inventory, and potential export changes [27][28][29]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall view of Treasury bond futures is that they will fluctuate in the short - term, with the short - term view of TL2509 being fluctuating, the medium - term view being fluctuating, and the intraday view being fluctuating and slightly stronger. The general reference view is fluctuating [1][5]. - Although the demand for Treasury bonds has been somewhat suppressed since July due to the rapid increase in stock market risk appetite, strong internal economic fundamentals, and the easing of external risk factors, the future policy will remain moderately loose, and there is still an expectation of monetary easing. The upward and downward space for market interest rates is limited in the short - term, so Treasury bond futures will mainly fluctuate and consolidate [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector | Variety | Short - term | Medium - term | Intraday | Viewpoint Reference | Core Logic Summary | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TL2509 | Fluctuation | Fluctuation | Fluctuation and slightly stronger | Fluctuation | There is still an expectation of loose monetary policy, but the possibility of an interest rate cut in the short - term is low [1]. | 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - **Viewpoints**: The intraday view is fluctuating and slightly stronger, the medium - term view is fluctuating, and the reference view is fluctuating [5]. - **Core Logic**: Since July, the demand for Treasury bonds has been affected by the rise in stock market risk appetite, strong internal economic fundamentals, and the easing of external risk factors, resulting in weak performance of Treasury bond futures. However, the future policy will remain moderately loose, and the expectation of monetary easing still exists. As market interest rates approach policy rates, the upward space for market interest rates is limited. In the short - term, Treasury bond futures will mainly fluctuate and consolidate [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The TL2509 variety is expected to be in a state of oscillation in the short - term, medium - term, and overall, with an intraday tendency to be slightly stronger. The core logic is that the manufacturing PMI weakened in July, but the possibility of an interest rate cut in the short term is low [1]. - For the TL, T, TF, and TS varieties, the intraday view is slightly stronger, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the overall reference view is oscillatory. After continuous adjustments since July, the 1 - year treasury bond yield has returned to near the policy rate, triggering the anchoring effect of the policy rate. Coupled with the emphasis on implementing a moderately loose monetary policy in the second half of the year, treasury bond futures have bottomed out and rebounded. However, the central bank has shifted to net liquidity withdrawal in recent open - market operations, and the high trading volume in the stock market indicates a strong risk preference among investors, resulting in insufficient upward momentum for treasury bonds. Overall, treasury bond futures are expected to trade in a range in the short term [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector | Variety | Short - term | Medium - term | Intraday | Viewpoint Reference | Core Logic Summary | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TL2509 | Oscillation | Oscillation | Slightly stronger oscillation | Oscillation | The manufacturing PMI weakened in July, but the possibility of an interest rate cut in the short term is low [1] | Main Variety Price and Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - **Varieties**: TL, T, TF, TS - **Intraday View**: Slightly stronger oscillation - **Medium - term View**: Oscillation - **Reference View**: Oscillation - **Core Logic**: Treasury bond futures oscillated and consolidated last Friday. After continuous adjustments since July, the 1 - year treasury bond yield has returned to near the policy rate, triggering the anchoring effect of the policy rate. The policy emphasizes implementing a moderately loose monetary policy in the second half of the year, leading to a rebound in treasury bond futures. But the central bank's net liquidity withdrawal and high stock market trading volume limit the upward momentum of treasury bonds. Short - term trading in a range is expected [5]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term view of TL2509 is "shock", the medium - term view is "shock", the intraday view is "shock - bullish", and the overall view is "shock" due to the weakening of the manufacturing PMI in July [1]. - For the TL, T, TF, TS varieties, the intraday view is "shock - bullish", the medium - term view is "shock", and the reference view is "shock". It is expected that Treasury bond futures will mainly fluctuate within a range in the short term [5]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the TL2509 variety, short - term is within one week, medium - term is from two weeks to one month. The short - term, medium - term, and overall views are "shock", and the intraday view is "shock - bullish". The core logic is the weakening of the 7 - month manufacturing PMI [1]. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The Treasury bond futures fluctuated and rose yesterday. The 7 - month Politburo meeting mentioned implementing a moderately loose monetary policy, leading to an increase in the expectation of interest rate cuts. After continuous corrections since July, the 1 - year Treasury bond yield has returned to near the policy rate, triggering the anchoring effect of the policy rate, causing Treasury bond futures to bottom out and rebound. The 7 - month manufacturing PMI released by the National Bureau of Statistics is 49.3, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing prosperity and insufficient effective domestic demand. The weak performance of the manufacturing PMI increases the expectation of future monetary easing, which is beneficial to Treasury bond futures [5].

Report Information - Report Title: Treasury Bond Futures Daily Report 2025/7/29 [1] - Data Source: Third - party - Researcher: Liao Hongbin - Futures Practitioner Qualification Number: F30825507 - Futures Investment Consulting Practitioner Certificate Number: Z0020723 Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core View - On Tuesday, Treasury bond spot yields weakened collectively, and Treasury bond futures closed down. The central bank continued net injections, and the weighted average DR007 rate fell to around 1.56%. Domestically, the decline in industrial enterprise profits narrowed in June, but weak PPI remained a drag. Industrial growth rose slightly, fixed - asset investment and social retail sales declined slightly, and the unemployment rate remained stable. Socially - financed growth exceeded expectations, credit demand improved marginally, and deposit activation increased. Overseas, the US July S&P Global Composite PMI rebounded unexpectedly, the labor market was stable, and global trade tensions eased. Affected by policy themes, risk appetite increased, and the bond market was under pressure. If relevant policies are further introduced, the bond market may continue to face pressure in the short - term, and interest - rate bonds may be adjusted. It is recommended to observe the adjustment of Treasury bond futures in the short - term and allocate after stabilization [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Futures Disk - **Closing Prices**: T, TF, TS, and TL main contract closing prices decreased by 0.25%, 0.17%, 0.06%, and 0.78% respectively [2] - **Trading Volumes**: T and TL main contract trading volumes increased by 94 and 5157 respectively, while TF and TS main contract trading volumes decreased by 1398 and 677 respectively [2] 2. Futures Spreads - TL2512 - 2509, T2512 - 2509, and TS2512 - 2509 spreads decreased by 0.09, 0.02, and 0.01 respectively; T09 - TL09, TF09 - T09, TS09 - T09, and TS09 - TF09 spreads increased by 0.64, 0.09, 0.21, and 0.12 respectively [2] 3. Futures Positions - **Main Contract Positions**: T and TS main contract positions decreased by 625 and 2929 respectively, while TF main contract positions decreased by 32, and TL main contract positions increased by 488 [2] - **Top 20 Long and Short Positions**: T top 20 long positions decreased by 379, and short positions increased by 1659; TF top 20 long positions increased by 1156, and short positions increased by 309; TS top 20 long positions increased by 149, and short positions decreased by 2562; TL top 20 long and short positions increased by 3633 and 3786 respectively [2] 4. CTD (Cheapest to Deliver) - The net prices of various CTD bonds, such as 220010.IB, 250007.IB, etc., all decreased [2] 5. Active Treasury Bonds - Yields of active Treasury bonds with maturities of 1y, 3y, 5y, 7y, and 10y decreased by 1.75bp, 2.05bp, 2.50bp, 2.25bp, and 1.75bp respectively [2] 6. Short - term Interest Rates - Silver - pledged overnight, 7 - day, Shibor overnight, and 7 - day interest rates all decreased [2] 7. Industry News - The national child - rearing subsidy system implementation plan was announced on July 28. From January 1, 2025, a subsidy of 3600 yuan per child per year will be provided for children under 3 years old [2] - In June, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size decreased by 4.3% year - on - year, with a narrowing decline compared to May. The profits of new - kinetic - energy industries represented by the equipment industry grew rapidly. From January to June, the total profits of industrial enterprises above designated size were 3436.5 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 1.8%. The profits of the ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry increased 13.7 times year - on - year, and the profits of the mining industry decreased by 30.3% year - on - year [2] 8. Key Data to Focus On - July 29, 22:00, US July Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index - July 30, 20:15, US July ADP Employment (in ten thousand people) [3]

Core Insights - The memory interconnect chip market is expected to grow from $768 million in 2020 to $1.168 billion by 2024, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 11.1% during this period, despite a decline in 2023 due to inventory adjustments in the server and computer industries [4][8][10] - China's memory interconnect chip market is projected to reach 1.66 billion yuan in 2024, accounting for approximately 20% of the global market, with a year-on-year growth exceeding 50% [12][10] - The industry is characterized by high technical barriers, leading to a concentrated market with the top three companies—Lanqi Technology, Renesas Electronics, and Rambus—holding 93.4% of the global market share, with Lanqi Technology leading at 36.8% [10][12] Market Overview - The global memory interconnect chip market is benefiting from continuous technological iterations and increasing penetration of AI servers, with growth expected in all years except 2023 [4][8] - The main products in the memory interconnect chip market include RCD/DB and module supporting chips, which are widely used in DDR4 and DDR5 memory modules, with RCD/DB expected to account for 59.5% of the market in 2024 [6][8] Industry Dynamics - The memory interconnect chip industry has significant technical barriers due to the complexity of product development, requiring deep technical expertise and long-term accumulation of intellectual property and design experience [10][12] - The industry follows JEDEC standards, and companies must engage in technical exchanges and collaborations with mainstream CPU, memory, server, and cloud computing manufacturers to establish a competitive edge [10] China's Market Position - China is becoming a significant player in the global AI and semiconductor sectors, with its memory interconnect chip market expected to continue expanding as downstream industries develop [12] - The market size for China's memory interconnect chips is projected to be 1.66 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a strong growth trajectory [12] Product Development Trends - The transition from DDR4 to DDR5 memory technology is driving demand for memory interconnect chips, with DDR5 expected to dominate the market by 2024, accounting for over 50% of global server memory module shipments [17][19] - New high-bandwidth memory modules like MRDIMM are being developed to meet the increasing bandwidth demands of AI and high-performance computing applications, with significant improvements in data transfer rates expected [24][19] Application Areas - Memory interconnect chips are primarily used in server applications, with DDR5 technology providing higher speeds, lower power consumption, and increased capacity compared to DDR4 [16][19] - The PC market is also experiencing a shift towards AI PCs, with DDR5 memory modules expected to see increased demand as the market evolves [21][19]