| 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 项目 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货盘面 | T主力收盘价 | 108.020 | 0.08% T主力成交量 | 99199 | 3956↑ | | | TF主力收盘价 | 105.590 | 0.07% TF主力成交量 | 62229 | -8338↓ | | | TS主力收盘价 | 102.406 | 0.02% TS主力成交量 | 27789 | -5141↓ | | | TL主力收盘价 | 117.400 | 0.24% TL主力成交量 | 163183 | 22208↑ | | 期货价差 | TL2512-2509价差 | -0.42 | -0.01↓ T12-TL12价差 | -9.38 | -0.11↓ | | | T2512-2509价差 | -0.18 | +0.01↑ TF12-T12价差 | -2.43 | 0.01↑ | | | TF2512-2509价差 | -0.07 | -0.01↓ TS12-T12价差 | -5.61 | -0.02↓ | | | TS ...

策略早餐 主要品种策略早餐 （2025.08.26） 金融期货和期权 股指期货 品种：IF、IH、IC、IM 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：偏强 参考策略：IF2509 多单持有，持有 IO-4300-P 看跌期权保护 核心逻辑： 1.海外方面，全球央行年会上美联储主席鲍威尔最新表态相对偏鸽， 9 月大概率降息，市场基本计价价全年降息 2 次，大幅提振全球风险情绪， 有助科创类相关板块估值提升。 2.资金情绪方面，市场量能处于高位水平，融资余额稳定在 2.1 万亿 上方，融资余额市值占比上升至 2.30%，杠杆资金持续加速进场，杠杆资 金交投情绪持续升温，融资资金交易额占比虽先升后降，期末比重仍较上 周提升 0.1 个百分点。权益类 ETF 整体净申购为主，沪深 300 指数、上证 50 指数、中证 500 指数、中证 1000 指数分别净流入 428.57 亿、87.1 亿、 110.75 亿、59.41 亿。 3.政策端，新一期国常会听取实施大规模设备更新和消费品以旧换新 政策情况汇报，加强统筹协调，完善实施机制，更好发挥对扩大内需的推 动作用，综合施策释放内需潜力。 国债期货 品种：TS、TF、T、TL ...

日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：偏强 金融期货和期权 股指期货 品种：IF、IH、IC、IM 策略早餐 主要品种策略早餐 （2025.08.25） 参考策略：IF2509 多单持有，买入 IO-4300-P 看跌期权保护 核心逻辑： 1.海外方面，全球央行年会上美联储主席鲍威尔最新表态相对偏鸽， 9 月大概率降息，市场基本计价价全年降息 2 次，大幅提振全球风险情绪， 有助科创类相关板块估值提升。 2.资金情绪方面，市场量能处于高位水平，融资余额稳定在 2.1 万亿 上方，融资余额市值占比上升至 2.30%，杠杆资金持续加速进场，杠杆资 金交投情绪持续升温，融资资金交易额占比虽先升后降，期末比重仍较上 周提升 0.1 个百分点。权益类 ETF 整体净申购为主，沪深 300 指数、上证 50 指数、中证 500 指数、中证 1000 指数分别净流入 428.57 亿、87.1 亿、 110.75 亿、59.41 亿。 3.政策端，新一期国常会听取实施大规模设备更新和消费品以旧换新 政策情况汇报，加强统筹协调，完善实施机制，更好发挥对扩大内需的推 动作用，综合施策释放内需潜力。 国债期货 品种：TS、TF、T、TL ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall view of Treasury bond futures is that they will fluctuate in the short - term, with the short - term view of TL2509 being fluctuating, the medium - term view being fluctuating, and the intraday view being fluctuating and slightly stronger. The general reference view is fluctuating [1][5]. - Although the demand for Treasury bonds has been somewhat suppressed since July due to the rapid increase in stock market risk appetite, strong internal economic fundamentals, and the easing of external risk factors, the future policy will remain moderately loose, and there is still an expectation of monetary easing. The upward and downward space for market interest rates is limited in the short - term, so Treasury bond futures will mainly fluctuate and consolidate [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector | Variety | Short - term | Medium - term | Intraday | Viewpoint Reference | Core Logic Summary | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TL2509 | Fluctuation | Fluctuation | Fluctuation and slightly stronger | Fluctuation | There is still an expectation of loose monetary policy, but the possibility of an interest rate cut in the short - term is low [1]. | 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - **Viewpoints**: The intraday view is fluctuating and slightly stronger, the medium - term view is fluctuating, and the reference view is fluctuating [5]. - **Core Logic**: Since July, the demand for Treasury bonds has been affected by the rise in stock market risk appetite, strong internal economic fundamentals, and the easing of external risk factors, resulting in weak performance of Treasury bond futures. However, the future policy will remain moderately loose, and the expectation of monetary easing still exists. As market interest rates approach policy rates, the upward space for market interest rates is limited. In the short - term, Treasury bond futures will mainly fluctuate and consolidate [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The TL2509 variety is expected to be in a state of oscillation in the short - term, medium - term, and overall, with an intraday tendency to be slightly stronger. The core logic is that the manufacturing PMI weakened in July, but the possibility of an interest rate cut in the short term is low [1]. - For the TL, T, TF, and TS varieties, the intraday view is slightly stronger, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the overall reference view is oscillatory. After continuous adjustments since July, the 1 - year treasury bond yield has returned to near the policy rate, triggering the anchoring effect of the policy rate. Coupled with the emphasis on implementing a moderately loose monetary policy in the second half of the year, treasury bond futures have bottomed out and rebounded. However, the central bank has shifted to net liquidity withdrawal in recent open - market operations, and the high trading volume in the stock market indicates a strong risk preference among investors, resulting in insufficient upward momentum for treasury bonds. Overall, treasury bond futures are expected to trade in a range in the short term [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector | Variety | Short - term | Medium - term | Intraday | Viewpoint Reference | Core Logic Summary | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TL2509 | Oscillation | Oscillation | Slightly stronger oscillation | Oscillation | The manufacturing PMI weakened in July, but the possibility of an interest rate cut in the short term is low [1] | Main Variety Price and Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - **Varieties**: TL, T, TF, TS - **Intraday View**: Slightly stronger oscillation - **Medium - term View**: Oscillation - **Reference View**: Oscillation - **Core Logic**: Treasury bond futures oscillated and consolidated last Friday. After continuous adjustments since July, the 1 - year treasury bond yield has returned to near the policy rate, triggering the anchoring effect of the policy rate. The policy emphasizes implementing a moderately loose monetary policy in the second half of the year, leading to a rebound in treasury bond futures. But the central bank's net liquidity withdrawal and high stock market trading volume limit the upward momentum of treasury bonds. Short - term trading in a range is expected [5]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货国债期货早报（2025 年 8 月 1 日） ◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TL2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡偏强 | 震荡 | 7 月制造业 PMI 走弱 | 备注： 参考观点：震荡 核心逻辑：昨日国债期货均震荡上涨。由于 7 月政治局会议提到要落实落细适度宽松的货币政策， 未来的货币环境偏向宽松，降息预期有所回升。经过 7 月以来的连续回调，1 年期国债收益率回升至 政策利率附近，触发了政策利率的锚定效应，因此国债期货触底回升。消息面，统计局公布的 7 月制 造业 PMI 为 49.3，比上月回落 0.4 个百分点，这说明制造业景气度有所回落，内需有效需求不足的 问题仍存。制造业 PMI 表现偏弱，说明未来货币宽松的预期有所上升，利好国债期货。总的来说，预 计短期内国债期货以区间震荡为主。 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） 专业研究 ...

Report Information - Report Title: Treasury Bond Futures Daily Report 2025/7/29 [1] - Data Source: Third - party - Researcher: Liao Hongbin - Futures Practitioner Qualification Number: F30825507 - Futures Investment Consulting Practitioner Certificate Number: Z0020723 Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core View - On Tuesday, Treasury bond spot yields weakened collectively, and Treasury bond futures closed down. The central bank continued net injections, and the weighted average DR007 rate fell to around 1.56%. Domestically, the decline in industrial enterprise profits narrowed in June, but weak PPI remained a drag. Industrial growth rose slightly, fixed - asset investment and social retail sales declined slightly, and the unemployment rate remained stable. Socially - financed growth exceeded expectations, credit demand improved marginally, and deposit activation increased. Overseas, the US July S&P Global Composite PMI rebounded unexpectedly, the labor market was stable, and global trade tensions eased. Affected by policy themes, risk appetite increased, and the bond market was under pressure. If relevant policies are further introduced, the bond market may continue to face pressure in the short - term, and interest - rate bonds may be adjusted. It is recommended to observe the adjustment of Treasury bond futures in the short - term and allocate after stabilization [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Futures Disk - **Closing Prices**: T, TF, TS, and TL main contract closing prices decreased by 0.25%, 0.17%, 0.06%, and 0.78% respectively [2] - **Trading Volumes**: T and TL main contract trading volumes increased by 94 and 5157 respectively, while TF and TS main contract trading volumes decreased by 1398 and 677 respectively [2] 2. Futures Spreads - TL2512 - 2509, T2512 - 2509, and TS2512 - 2509 spreads decreased by 0.09, 0.02, and 0.01 respectively; T09 - TL09, TF09 - T09, TS09 - T09, and TS09 - TF09 spreads increased by 0.64, 0.09, 0.21, and 0.12 respectively [2] 3. Futures Positions - **Main Contract Positions**: T and TS main contract positions decreased by 625 and 2929 respectively, while TF main contract positions decreased by 32, and TL main contract positions increased by 488 [2] - **Top 20 Long and Short Positions**: T top 20 long positions decreased by 379, and short positions increased by 1659; TF top 20 long positions increased by 1156, and short positions increased by 309; TS top 20 long positions increased by 149, and short positions decreased by 2562; TL top 20 long and short positions increased by 3633 and 3786 respectively [2] 4. CTD (Cheapest to Deliver) - The net prices of various CTD bonds, such as 220010.IB, 250007.IB, etc., all decreased [2] 5. Active Treasury Bonds - Yields of active Treasury bonds with maturities of 1y, 3y, 5y, 7y, and 10y decreased by 1.75bp, 2.05bp, 2.50bp, 2.25bp, and 1.75bp respectively [2] 6. Short - term Interest Rates - Silver - pledged overnight, 7 - day, Shibor overnight, and 7 - day interest rates all decreased [2] 7. Industry News - The national child - rearing subsidy system implementation plan was announced on July 28. From January 1, 2025, a subsidy of 3600 yuan per child per year will be provided for children under 3 years old [2] - In June, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size decreased by 4.3% year - on - year, with a narrowing decline compared to May. The profits of new - kinetic - energy industries represented by the equipment industry grew rapidly. From January to June, the total profits of industrial enterprises above designated size were 3436.5 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 1.8%. The profits of the ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry increased 13.7 times year - on - year, and the profits of the mining industry decreased by 30.3% year - on - year [2] 8. Key Data to Focus On - July 29, 22:00, US July Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index - July 30, 20:15, US July ADP Employment (in ten thousand people) [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core View of the Report - The report presents a comprehensive overview of the weekly price - volume data of various futures, including precious metals, non - ferrous metals, black metals, energy and chemicals, agricultural products, forest products, livestock products, and financial futures, as well as the year - to - date price changes and weekly capital flow and position changes of these futures [2][4][11] Group 3: Summary According to Related Catalogs Weekly Futures Price - Volume Overview Precious Metals - Gold closed at 777.32 with a weekly increase of 12.11%, 20 - day annualized volatility of 8.88%, speculation degree of 1.15, trend degree of 0.14, and capital change of 29.31 [2] - Silver closed at 9,392.00 with a weekly increase of 14.74%, volatility change of 6.39%, speculation degree of 2.00, trend degree of 0.18, and capital change of - 21.41 [2] Non - Ferrous Metals - Copper closed at 79,250.00 with a weekly increase of 11.02%, volatility change of 8.11%, speculation degree of 0.48, trend degree of 0.00, and capital change of 7.27 [2] - Nickel closed at 124,360.00 with a weekly increase of 13.55%, volatility change of - 2.59%, speculation degree of 2.20, trend degree of 0.29, and capital change of 8.73 [2] - Aluminum closed at 20,760.00 with a weekly increase of 9.94%, volatility change of 19.17%, speculation degree of 0.51, trend degree of 0.12, and capital change of 3.46 [2] - Tin closed at 271,630.00 with a weekly increase of 15.43%, volatility change of 6.80%, speculation degree of 4.91, trend degree of 0.23, and capital change of 7.86 [2] - Zinc closed at 22,885.00 with a weekly increase of 14.07%, volatility change of 28.29%, speculation degree of 1.36, trend degree of 0.34, and capital change of 2.15 [2] - Lead closed at 16,955.00 with a weekly increase of 7.59%, volatility change of - 11.79%, speculation degree of 0.85, trend degree of 0.05, and capital change of - 0.08 [2] - Industrial silicon closed at 9,725.00 with a weekly increase of 42.16%, volatility change of 17.35%, speculation degree of 3.43, trend degree of 0.24, and capital change of 1.14 [2] Black Metals - Rebar closed at 3,356.00 with a weekly increase of 16.64%, volatility change of 46.68%, speculation degree of 1.43, trend degree of 0.34, and capital change of 11.10 [2] - Iron ore closed at 802.50 with a weekly increase of 20.75%, volatility change of 25.20%, speculation degree of 0.88, trend degree of - 0.05, and capital change of - 18.35 [2] - Coke closed at 1,763.00 with a weekly increase of 33.70%, volatility change of 29.75%, speculation degree of 1.67, trend degree of 0.49, and capital change of 5.61 [2] - Coking coal closed at 1,259.00 with a weekly increase of 50.73%, volatility change of 54.67%, speculation degree of 4.70, trend degree of 0.88, and capital change of 56.65 [2] - Hot - rolled coil closed at 3,507.00 with a weekly increase of 16.27%, volatility change of 44.49%, speculation degree of 0.71, trend degree of 0.38, and capital change of 10.40 [2] - Ferrosilicon closed at 6,166.00 with a weekly increase of 36.16%, volatility change of 64.42%, speculation degree of 1.93, trend degree of 0.28, and capital change of 4.91 [2] - Silicomanganese closed at 6,414.00 with a weekly increase of 30.90%, volatility change of 119.78%, speculation degree of 1.36, trend degree of 0.24, and capital change of 9.12 [2] - Stainless steel closed at 13,030.00 with a weekly increase of 9.23%, volatility change of 0.58%, speculation degree of 1.66, trend degree of 0.27, and capital change of 3.73 [2] Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil closed at 512.90 with a weekly decrease of 0.56%, volatility change of - 49.31%, speculation degree of 3.68, trend degree of - 0.04, and capital change of 0.85 [2] - Fuel oil closed at 2,915.00 with a weekly increase of 0.10%, volatility change of - 51.42%, speculation degree of 2.64, trend degree of 0.10, and capital change of 1.58 [2] - LU closed at 3,613.00 with a weekly decrease of 0.61%, volatility change of - 57.51%, speculation degree of 1.48, trend degree of - 0.07, and capital change of - 1.12 [2] - LPG closed at 4,047.00 with a weekly increase of 1.43%, volatility change of - 38.51%, speculation degree of 1.36, trend degree of 0.19, and capital change of 2.05 [2] - Asphalt closed at 3,615.00 with a weekly decrease of 1.09%, volatility change of - 55.52%, speculation degree of 0.98, trend degree of - 0.18, and capital change of - 2.77 [2] - PVC closed at 5,373.00 with a weekly increase of 8.83%, volatility change of 61.62%, speculation degree of 2.08, trend degree of 0.47, and capital change of 1.77 [2] - Polyethylene closed at 7,456.00 with a weekly increase of 3.33%, volatility change of - 5.38%, speculation degree of 0.91, trend degree of 0.45, and capital change of - 0.45 [2] - Polypropylene closed at 7,221.00 with a weekly increase of 2.97%, volatility change of - 8.60%, speculation degree of 0.94, trend degree of 0.47, and capital change of 0.73 [2] - Styrene closed at 7,587.00 with a weekly increase of 4.52%, volatility change of - 21.67%, speculation degree of 1.37, trend degree of 0.44, and capital change of - 0.39 [2] - PTA closed at 4,936.00 with a weekly increase of 4.05%, volatility change of - 38.50%, speculation degree of 1.01, trend degree of 0.31, and capital change of 4.10 [2] - Ethylene glycol closed at 4,545.00 with a weekly increase of 3.86%, volatility change of - 39.08%, speculation degree of 0.87, trend degree of 0.36, and capital change of 2.83 [2] - Short - fiber closed at 6,606.00 with a weekly increase of 3.67%, volatility change of - 21.55%, speculation degree of 1.31, trend degree of 0.43, and capital change of 0.10 [2] - Methanol closed at 2,519.00 with a weekly increase of 6.51%, volatility change of - 9.47%, speculation degree of 1.54, trend degree of 0.46, and capital change of 3.33 [2] - Urea closed at 1,803.00 with a weekly increase of 3.32%, volatility change of 32.12%, speculation degree of 1.49, trend degree of 0.16, and capital change of 0.44 [2] - Glass closed at 1,362.00 with a weekly increase of 25.99%, volatility change of 60.25%, speculation degree of 3.88, trend degree of 0.58, and capital change of - 4.10 [2] - Soda ash closed at 1,440.00 with a weekly increase of 18.42%, volatility change of 74.17%, speculation degree of 3.49, trend degree of 0.48, and capital change of - 17.51 [2] - Natural rubber closed at 15,585.00 with a weekly increase of 5.23%, volatility change of - 8.64%, speculation degree of 3.10, trend degree of 0.36, and capital change of 1.38 [2] Agricultural Products - Cotton closed at 14,170.00 with a weekly decrease of 0.70%, volatility change of 0.35%, speculation degree of 0.46, trend degree of - 0.23, and capital change of - 2.59 [2] - Sugar closed at 5,876.00 with a weekly increase of 0.86%, volatility change of - 12.50%, speculation degree of 0.57, trend degree of 0.19, and capital change of 3.48 [2] - Corn closed at 2,311.00 with a weekly decrease of 0.13%, volatility change of - 6.18%, speculation degree of 0.54, trend degree of - 0.04, and capital change of - 5.61 [2] - Apple closed at 8,005.00 with a weekly increase of 1.55%, volatility change of - 19.35%, speculation degree of 0.46, trend degree of 0.26, and capital change of - 0.24 [2] - Starch closed at 2,665.00 with a weekly increase of 0.26%, volatility change of - 4.75%, speculation degree of 0.49, trend degree of - 0.04, and capital change of - 1.69 [2] - Soybean No.1 closed at 4,224.00 with a weekly increase of 0.84%, volatility change of - 15.66%, speculation degree of 0.78, trend degree of 0.23, and capital change of 1.29 [2] - Soybean No.2 closed at 3,661.00 with a weekly decrease of 1.74%, volatility change of - 11.64%, speculation degree of 1.21, trend degree of - 0.17, and capital change of 0.06 [2] - Soybean meal closed at 3,021.00 with a weekly decrease of 1.15%, volatility change of - 5.58%, speculation degree of 0.69, trend degree of 0.03, and capital change of - 7.69 [2] - Soybean oil closed at 8,144.00 with a weekly decrease of 0.20%, volatility change of - 19.62%, speculation degree of 0.67, trend degree of - 0.07, and capital change of - 1.61 [2] - Palm oil closed at 8,936.00 with a weekly decrease of 0.31%, volatility change of - 1.15%, speculation degree of 1.41, trend degree of 0.04, and capital change of - 14.42 [2] - Rapeseed meal closed at 2,675.00 with a weekly decrease of 1.73%, volatility change of - 7.60%, speculation degree of 0.73, trend degree of - 0.08, and capital change of - 2.43 [2] - Rapeseed oil closed at 9,457.00 with a weekly decrease of 1.35%, volatility change of - 9.93%, speculation degree of 1.26, trend degree of - 0.21, and capital change of - 4.46 [2] Forest Products - Pulp closed at 5,520.00 with a weekly increase of 4.31%, volatility change of - 45.72%, speculation degree of 2.11, trend degree of 0.49, and capital change of 3.31 [2] Livestock Products - Live pigs closed at 14,385.00 with a weekly increase of 1.77%, volatility change of 15.99%, speculation degree of 1.10, trend degree of 0.15, and capital change of 14.31 [2] Financial Futures - IC closed at 6,216.00 with a weekly increase of 3.59%, 20 - day annualized volatility of 10.92%, volatility change of - 7.44%, speculation degree of 0.43, trend degree of 0.36, and capital change of 50.63 [4] - IF closed at 4,116.00 with a weekly increase of 1.84%, 20 - day annualized volatility of 8.07%, volatility change of - 23.25%, speculation degree of 0.39, trend degree of 0.24, and capital change of 34.02 [4] - IM closed at 6,605.80 with a weekly increase of 3.00%, 20 - day annualized volatility of 12.19%, volatility change of - 16.14%, speculation degree of 0.65, trend degree of 0.31, and capital change of 72.21 [4] - IH closed at 2,796.80 with a weekly increase of 1.08%, 20 - day annualized volatility of 7.06%, volatility change of - 27.82%, speculation degree of 0.55, trend degree of 0.10, and capital change of 9.98 [4] - T closed at 108.18 with a weekly decrease of 0.56%, 20 - day annualized volatility of 1.62%, volatility change of 16.55%, speculation degree of 0.47, trend degree of - 0.24, and capital change of 2.37 [4] - TS closed at 102.31 with a weekly decrease of 0.12%, 20 - day annualized volatility of 0.42%, volatility change of 12.45%, speculation degree of 0.41, trend degree of - 0.16, and capital change of - 1.57 [4] - TF closed at 105.57 with a weekly decrease of 0.40%, 20 - day annualized volatility of 1.13%, volatility change of 10.65%, speculation degree of 0.48, trend degree of - 0.32, and capital change of 0.07 [4] Year - to - Date Price Changes - Gold has a year - to - date increase of 25.86%, silver 25.73%, and other varieties have different year - to - date price changes, such as红枣 (13.41%), apple (13.06%), etc [11] Weekly Capital Flow and Position Changes - The capital attention of coking coal, gold, live pigs, rebar, and hot - rolled coil has increased [13] - The positions of crude oil

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The improvement of the macro - situation drives up risk appetite, and the index has broken through the upper edge of the short - term shock range. However, there are risks in different sectors, and corresponding trading strategies are recommended for each variety [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Financial - **Stock Index**: The macro situation has improved, the index has broken through the short - term shock range, and the dividend sector has rebounded. In the process of the central shift upward, be vigilant against the risk of chasing high. It is recommended to sell MO options with an exercise price of 5900 from August to September with a light position to collect option premiums. For the unilateral strategy, it is recommended to appropriately allocate long positions on dips in the short term, take profit when approaching the previous high, and pay attention to economic data and capital trends. Also, pay attention to steepening the curve [2]. - **Treasury Bonds**: At the beginning of the month, the capital market loosened, and treasury bonds rebounded as a whole, but there is currently no momentum to break through the previous high. In the short - term unilateral strategy, it is recommended to appropriately allocate long positions on dips, take profit when approaching the previous high, and pay attention to economic data and capital trends. Also, pay attention to steepening the curve [2]. - **Precious Metals**: The threat of US tariffs has increased, the US dollar index has continued to decline, and gold has continued its rebound trend. If the gold price stabilizes above the 60 - day moving average, it will fluctuate above $3300; the silver price will oscillate in the range of $35.5 - $36.5. Pay attention to the impact of US economic data on the Fed's monetary policy expectations [2]. Black - **Steel**: Industrial material demand and inventory are deteriorating. Pay attention to the decline in apparent demand. For unilateral operations, it is recommended to wait and see for now. For arbitrage, pay attention to the operation of going long on steel products and short on raw materials [2]. - **Iron Ore**: The Tangshan production restriction policy may suppress iron ore demand. It is recommended to short at high levels, with the fluctuation range referring to 690 - 720 [2]. - **Coking Coal**: The market auction non - successful bid rate has decreased, the expectation of coal mine复产 has strengthened, the spot is running strongly, the transaction has warmed up, and coal mine shipments have improved. It is recommended to wait and see, and then go long on dips or go long on coking coal and short on coke after stabilization [2]. - **Coke**: The fourth round of price cuts by mainstream steel mills on June 23 has been implemented, the coking profit has declined, and the price is approaching the phased bottom. It is recommended to wait and see, and then go long on dips or go long on coking coal and short on coke after stabilization [2]. Non - ferrous - **Copper**: The COMEX - LME spread has widened again, and high copper prices are suppressing downstream procurement. The main contract reference range is 79000 - 81000 [2]. - **Aluminum**: The oversupply pattern is difficult to change. It is recommended to lay out short positions at high levels in the medium term. The main contract reference range is 2750 - 3100 [2]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The market follows the high - level oscillation of aluminum prices, and the fundamentals in the off - season remain weak. The main contract reference range is 19200 - 20000 [2]. - **Zinc**: The demand expectation is still weak, and the downstream willingness to take delivery is low. The main contract reference range is 21500 - 22500 [2]. - **Lead**: The market maintains an oscillation, the sentiment is temporarily stable, but the industrial overcapacity still restricts the market. The main contract reference range is 116000 - 124000 [2]. - **Stainless Steel**: The market is weakly oscillating, the sentiment is temporarily stable, and the fundamentals remain weak. The main contract reference range is 12300 - 13000 [2]. Energy and Chemical - **Crude Oil**: The demand - side expectation has improved, driving the market to stabilize. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term. The support for WTI is in the range of [63, 64], the upper - end pressure for Brent is in the range of [64, 65], and the pressure level for SC is in the range of [480, 490] [2]. - **Urea**: The supply is at a high level while the demand release is insufficient, and the short - term market is likely to continue to bottom out. It is recommended to go long on dips in the short term, and exit if the actual quota fails to meet the expectation. The support level for the main contract is adjusted to 1690 - 1700 [2]. - **PX**: The supply - demand is tight, but the oil price support is limited. PX will maintain an oscillating trend in the short term. PX09 will oscillate in the range of 6600 - 6900 in the short term. Be cautious and bearish near the upper edge of the range; pay attention to the opportunity to widen the PX - SC spread at a low level [2]. - **PTA**: The supply - demand expectation is weakening, and the oil price support is limited. PTA will follow the raw materials to oscillate in the short term. TA will oscillate in the range of 4600 - 4900 in the short term. Allocate bearishly at the upper edge of the range; temporarily exit the TA9 - 1 reverse arbitrage [2]. - **Short - fiber**: With the expectation of factory production cuts, the processing fee is gradually being repaired. The unilateral strategy for PF is the same as that for PTA; mainly widen the processing fee at the low level of the PF market [2]. - **Bottle - chip**: It is the demand peak season, the production cuts of bottle - chips are gradually being implemented, the processing fee is bottoming out, and PR follows the cost to fluctuate. The unilateral strategy for PR is the same as that for PTA; conduct positive arbitrage on PR8 - 9 on dips; the processing fee of the PR main contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 350 - 600 yuan/ton. Pay attention to the opportunity to widen at the lower edge of the range [2]. - **Ethanol**: The supply - demand is gradually becoming loose, and the short - term demand is weak. It is expected that MEG will be weakly sorted. Hold the seller of the short - term call option EG2509 - C - 4450; conduct reverse arbitrage on EG9 - 1 at high levels [2]. - **Styrene**: Styrene may continue to weaken. Pay attention to the continuation of the decline in oil prices. Look for high - level short - selling opportunities for styrene with raw - material resonance [2]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: Butadiene is weakening, and there is pressure above BR. Short at high levels for BR2508 in the short term [2]. - **LLDPE**: The spot price is falling, and the trading is weak. It will oscillate in the short term [2]. - **PP**: The supply - demand is weak on both sides, and the cost - side support is weakening. Treat it with caution and bearishly, and enter short positions at 7250 - 7300 [2]. - **Methanol**: The basis is strong. Pay attention to the later shipments from Iran. Wait and see [2]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal**: US soybeans are oscillating at the bottom, and the lower - end support is strengthening. Conduct short - term operations [2]. - **Pigs**: The spot sentiment is strong, but the market is suppressed by profit - taking. Treat it with caution and bearishly [2]. - **Corn**: The import auction has a premium, and the market is slightly increasing steadily. Pay attention to the support at 2360 - 2370 [2]. - **Oils**: The decline in production supports the strong oscillation of palm oil. The reference range for P2509 is 8200 - 8500 [2]. - **Sugar**: The overseas supply outlook is relatively loose. Trade bearishly on rebounds [2]. - **Cotton**: The downstream market remains weak. The market rushes up and then falls back. Hold short positions in the short term [2]. - **Eggs**: The spot market remains weak. Go long on short - term rebounds, but still be bearish in the long - term [2]. - **Apples**: The trading is generally stable, and the transaction is priced according to quality. The main contract runs around 7700 [2]. - **Jujubes**: The market price is rising. The main contract runs around 9600 [2]. - **Peanuts**: The market price is oscillating steadily. The main contract runs around 8200 [2]. - **Soda Ash**: The oversupply logic is re - dominating the market, and the market is weakening again. Hold short positions [2]. Special Commodities - **Glass**: The spot sales are deteriorating, and the market is weakening. Adopt a short - term bearish thinking [2]. - **Rubber**: There is an expectation of weakening fundamentals. Continue to hold short positions above 14000 [2]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The resumption of production by southwestern enterprises has increased, and the industrial silicon price has declined. Wait and see [2]. New Energy - **Polysilicon**: The polysilicon futures price is oscillating downward. Wait and see [2]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The market is fluctuating widely, the news disturbance is increasing, and the fundamentals still face pressure. The main contract is expected to run in the range of 58,000 - 64,000 [2]. Shipping - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: The EC market is rising. Wait and see cautiously. It is expected that the 08 contract will hover between 1800 - 2000. For unilateral operations, wait and see for now [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - In the game of policy expectations, Treasury bond futures closed down across the board. Last week, Treasury bond yields showed a volatile and slightly stronger trend. Although social financing data increased year-on-year, it was mainly driven by government bonds, and credit demand remained weak. Coupled with the manufacturing PMI still below the boom-bust line, it strengthened the market's judgment of a weak economy, supporting the bond market. Geopolitical tensions and the escalation of the Middle East situation increased risk aversion, which was also beneficial to the bond market. Despite the signal of financial opening released at the Lujiazui Forum, there were no more-than-expected easing measures, which cooled the market's expectation of the central bank's buying and selling of Treasury bonds, causing interest rate bonds to rise and then fall. In June, the LPR remained unchanged, the stock market weakened, and the capital side was relatively stable. The bond market generally rose, and the market's expectation of easing policies in the second half of the year increased. Ultra-long-term Treasury bond trading was active, but it was still restricted by the policy vacuum period [1][3]. Summary by Directory 1. Interest Rate Pricing Tracking Indicators - **Price Indicators**: China's CPI (monthly) had a month-on-month change of -0.20% and a year-on-year change of -0.10%. China's PPI (monthly) had a month-on-month change of -0.40% and a year-on-year change of -3.30% [8]. - **Monthly Economic Indicators**: The social financing scale was 426.16 trillion yuan, with a month-on-month increase of 2.16 trillion yuan and a growth rate of 0.51%. M2 year-on-year was 7.90%, a decrease of 0.10% and a decline rate of 1.25%. The manufacturing PMI was 49.50%, an increase of 0.50% and a growth rate of 1.02% [8]. - **Daily Economic Indicators**: The US dollar index was 97.95, a decrease of 0.43 and a decline rate of 0.44%. The US dollar against the offshore RMB was 7.1754, a decrease of 0.011 and a decline rate of 0.15%. SHIBOR 7 days was 1.63, an increase of 0.13 and a growth rate of 8.82%. DR007 was 1.67, an increase of 0.16 and a growth rate of 10.67%. R007 was 1.64, a decrease of 0.12 and a decline rate of 6.66%. The 3M interbank certificate of deposit (AAA) was 1.61, an increase of 0.00 and a growth rate of 0.04%. The AA - AAA credit spread (1Y) was 0.08, an increase of 0.00 and a growth rate of 0.04% [8]. 2. Treasury Bond and Treasury Bond Futures Market Overview No specific content provided other than the section title and references to related figures such as the closing price trend of Treasury bond futures' main continuous contracts and the price changes of various Treasury bond futures varieties [9][12]. 3. Money Market Capital Situation - On June 24, 2025, the central bank conducted a 7 - day reverse repurchase operation of 406.5 billion yuan at a fixed interest rate of 1.5%. The main term repurchase rates of 1D, 7D, 14D, and 1M were 1.370%, 1.629%, 1.697%, and 1.620% respectively, and the repurchase rates had recently declined [2]. 4. Spread Situation No specific content provided other than the section title and references to related figures such as the inter - period spread trend of various Treasury bond futures varieties and the spread between spot bond term spreads and futures cross - varieties [36]. 5. Two - Year Treasury Bond Futures No specific content provided other than the section title and references to related figures such as the implied interest rate of the TS main contract and the Treasury bond maturity yield [43]. 6. Five - Year Treasury Bond Futures No specific content provided other than the section title and references to related figures such as the implied interest rate of the TF main contract and the Treasury bond maturity yield, and the three - year basis trend of the TF main contract [51]. 7. Ten - Year Treasury Bond Futures No specific content provided other than the section title and references to related figures such as the implied interest rate of the T main contract and the Treasury bond maturity yield, and the three - year basis trend of the T main contract [62]. 8. Thirty - Year Treasury Bond Futures No specific content provided other than the section title and references to related figures such as the implied interest rate of the TL main contract and the Treasury bond maturity yield, and the three - year basis trend of the TL main contract [69]. Strategies - **Unilateral**: With the decline of repurchase rates and the volatility of Treasury bond futures prices, the 2509 contract is neutral. - **Arbitrage**: Pay attention to the widening of the basis. - **Hedging**: There is medium - term adjustment pressure, and short - sellers can use far - month contracts for appropriate hedging. The short - term fluctuation of the yield curve intensifies, and the trend still depends on the further clarification of the fundamentals and policies [4].