投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 宝城期货国债期货早报（2026 年 1 月 9 日） ◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TL2603 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏弱 | 震荡整理 | 短期降息概率较低，中长期宽松 预期仍存 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 专业研究·创造价值 1/2 请务必阅读文末免责条款 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—金融期货股指板块 品种：TL、T、TF、TS 日内观点：偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡整理 核心逻辑：昨日国债期货均震荡小幅反弹。由于短期内宏观数据表现较强韧性，货币政策宽松的紧迫 性下降，叠加一 ...

E s s e n t i a l s | 05 Jan 2026 16:00:18 ET │ 47 pages | Earnings Summary | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Year to | Net Profit | Diluted EPS | EPS growth | P/E | P/B | ROE | Yield | | 31 Dec | (RmbM) | (Rmb) | (%) | (x) | (x) | (%) | (%) | | 2023A | 451 | 0.396 | -65.4 | na | 14.3 | 4.5 | 0.2 | | 2024A | 1,412 | 1.235 | 211.8 | 103.4 | 12.8 | 13.1 | 0.2 | | 2025E | 2,242 | 1.958 | 58.5 | 65.2 | 11.4 | 18.5 | 0.3 | | 2026E | 3,248 | 2.837 | 44.9 | 45.0 | 9.5 | 23.0 | 0.5 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report presents a comprehensive overview of the weekly price - volume data of various commodity futures, including precious metals, non - ferrous metals, black metals, energy and chemicals, agricultural products, livestock products, and financial futures, as well as their year - to - date price changes and持仓量 and capital flow information [1][2][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Categories 3.1 Weekly Futures Price - Volume Overview - **Precious Metals**: Gold closed at 1,016.30 with a weekly increase of 3.71%, 20 - day annualized volatility of 13.43%, and a volatility change of 13.75%. Silver closed at 18,319.00 with a weekly increase of 19.14%, 20 - day annualized volatility of 43.50%, and a volatility change of 33.41% [2] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper closed at 98,720.00 with a 5.95% weekly increase; nickel at 126,750.00 with a 7.91% increase; aluminum at 22,405.00 with a 0.99% increase; tin at 338,550.00 with a 1.58% decrease; zinc at 23,170.00 with a 0.41% increase; lead at 17,555.00 with a 4.00% increase; industrial silicon at 8,880.00 with a 2.19% increase [2] - **Black Metals**: Coke closed at 1,720.00 with a 1.15% decrease; coking coal at 1,115.50 with a 0.68% increase; iron ore at 783.00 with a 0.38% increase; rebar at 3,118.00 with a 0.03% decrease; hot - rolled coil at 3,283.00 with a 0.43% increase; ferrosilicon at 5,672.00 with a 0.57% increase; silicomanganese at 5,840.00 with a 0.55% increase; stainless steel at 12,955.00 with a 1.85% increase [2] - **Energy and Chemicals**: Crude oil closed at 441.80 with a 3.56% increase; fuel oil at 2,491.00 with a 4.23% increase; LU at 3,017.00 with a 3.53% increase; LPG at 4,080.00 with a 0.46% decrease; asphalt at 2,995.00 with a 2.96% increase; PVC at 4,832.00 with a 3.87% increase; polyethylene at 6,465.00 with a 2.29% increase; polypropylene at 6,292.00 with a 1.27% increase; styrene at 6,787.00 with a 6.01% increase; PTA at 5,280.00 with an 8.15% increase; ethylene glycol at 3,846.00 with a 2.89% increase; short - fiber at 6,666.00 with a 5.94% increase; methanol at 2,161.00 with a 0.61% increase; urea at 1,735.00 with a 2.24% increase; glass at 1,057.00 with a 1.54% increase; soda ash at 1,200.00 with a 2.04% increase; natural rubber at 15,780.00 with a 3.88% increase [2] - **Agricultural Products**: Cotton closed at 14,535.00 with a 3.71% increase; sugar at 5,285.00 with a 3.87% increase; corn at 2,222.00 with a 1.37% increase; apple at 9,247.00 with a 0.52% increase; starch at 2,514.00 with a 0.88% increase; soybean No. 1 at 4,128.00 with a 1.08% increase; soybean No. 2 at 3,491.00 with a 2.26% increase; soybean meal at 2,790.00 with a 2.01% increase; soybean oil at 7,836.00 with a 1.61% increase; palm oil at 8,568.00 with a 3.33% increase; rapeseed meal at 2,391.00 with a 2.93% increase; rapeseed oil at 9,046.00 with a 3.45% increase; pulp at 5,630.00 with a 2.25% increase [2] - **Livestock Products**: Egg closed at 2,957.00 with a 2.46% increase; live pig at 11,645.00 with a 2.83% increase [2] - **Financial Futures**: IC closed at 7,388.00 with a 4.71% increase; IF at 4,638.40 with a 2.46% increase; IM at 7,472.40 with a 4.63% increase; IH at 3,051.40 with a 1.50% increase; T at 108.30 with a 0.14% increase; TS at 102.55 with a 0.06% increase; TF at 106.05 with a 0.08% increase [3] 3.2 Year - to - Date Price Changes - Silver had a year - to - date increase of 145.23%, gold 64.56%, and tin 38.26%. Some commodities had significant year - to - date decreases, such as PVC with a 20.95% decrease and LPG with a 25.11% decrease [13] 3.3 Position and Capital Flow - **Position Changes**: The positions of coke, PTA, lead, urea, and soybean No. 1 increased significantly [15][16] - **Capital Flow**: The capital attention of silver, gold, copper, nickel, and PTA increased [17]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term view of TL2603 is to oscillate, the medium - term view is to oscillate, and the intraday view is weak, with an overall view of oscillatory consolidation. The short - term probability of interest rate cuts is low, while the long - term easing expectation still exists [1]. - For the TL, T, TF, and TS varieties, the intraday view is weak, the medium - term view is to oscillate, and the reference view is oscillatory consolidation. The overall situation of treasury bond futures is that there is pressure above and support below, and they will mainly be in oscillatory consolidation in the short term [5]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the TL2603 variety, the short - term view is oscillation, the medium - term view is oscillation, the intraday view is weak, and the view reference is oscillatory consolidation. The core logic is that the short - term probability of interest rate cuts is low, while the long - term easing expectation still exists [1]. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - Yesterday, treasury bond futures oscillated and rebounded. In the long - term, the problem of insufficient effective domestic demand still exists, and the monetary policy environment next year is expected to be loose, with interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio cuts still anticipated. After continuous corrections, the current market interest rate implies a weak expectation of interest rate cuts, and the support for treasury bond futures is strong. In the short - term, the current market risk - aversion sentiment is weak, the urgency of interest rate cuts in the short - term is not strong, and the upward momentum of treasury bond futures is also insufficient. Overall, treasury bond futures have pressure above and support below, and will mainly oscillate and consolidate in the short term [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term view of TL2603 is to oscillate, the medium - term view is to oscillate, and the intraday view is to be weak, with an overall view of oscillatory consolidation. The short - term probability of interest rate cuts is low, while the long - term easing expectation still exists [1]. - For financial futures index stock sectors including TL, T, TF, and TS, the intraday view is weak, the medium - term view is to oscillate, and the reference view is oscillatory consolidation. The central bank will continue a moderately loose monetary policy in the long - term, which supports bond futures, but in the short - term, due to the strong resilience of macro - economic data and policy focus on structural easing, the expectation of a full - scale interest rate cut is low, so bond futures will oscillate in the short - term [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Index Stock Sector - For TL2603, the short - term is oscillatory, the medium - term is oscillatory, the intraday is weak, and the overall view is oscillatory consolidation. The reason is that the short - term probability of interest rate cuts is low, and there is still a long - term easing expectation [1]. 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Index Stock Sector - For varieties like TL, T, TF, and TS, last Friday, bond futures oscillated and pulled back. The central economic work conference proposes to continue a moderately loose monetary policy, and the long - term monetary environment is loose, which supports bond futures. However, in the short - term, macro - economic data is resilient, the urgency of a full - scale interest rate cut is low, and the policy focuses on structural easing, so the upward momentum of bond futures is limited. Overall, bond futures are under pressure and support, and will oscillate in the short - term [5].

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Group 2: Core View - The short - term probability of interest rate cuts is low, while the medium - and long - term easing expectations still exist. Treasury bond futures are under both upward pressure and downward support, and will mainly fluctuate and consolidate in the short term [1][5] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalog Variety View Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the TL2603 variety, the short - term view is "oscillation", the medium - term view is "oscillation", the intraday view is "weakening", and the reference view is "oscillation and consolidation". The core logic is that the short - term probability of interest rate cuts is low, and there are still medium - and long - term easing expectations [1] Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For varieties TL, T, TF, and TS, the intraday view is "weakening", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the reference view is "oscillation and consolidation". The core logic is that treasury bond futures oscillated and rebounded yesterday. In the medium and long term, a moderately loose monetary policy will continue to be implemented next year, and with a strong expectation of the Fed's interest rate cuts, the monetary policy environment will be loose, and there is an expectation of a cut in policy interest rates, providing strong support for treasury bond futures. However, there is a lack of short - term necessity for interest rate cuts, and the concentrated supply of treasury bonds in the first quarter of next year will bring certain pressure, resulting in insufficient upward momentum for treasury bond futures in the short term [5]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term view of TL2603 is shock, the medium - term view is shock, and the intraday view is weak, with an overall view of shock consolidation due to a decline in short - term interest rate cut expectations and the existence of long - term easing expectations [1] - For the main varieties of financial futures index stocks (TL, T, TF, TS), the intraday view is weak, the medium - term view is shock, and the reference view is shock consolidation. In the short term, treasury bond futures are mainly in shock consolidation [5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Index Stock Sector - For TL2603, short - term is shock, medium - term is shock, intraday is weak, with a view of shock consolidation. The core logic is the decline in short - term interest rate cut expectations and the existence of long - term easing expectations [1] Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Index Stock Sector - For varieties TL, T, TF, TS, the intraday view is weak, the medium - term view is shock, and the reference view is shock consolidation. The core logic is that treasury bond futures oscillated and consolidated yesterday. At the beginning of the month, liquidity is relatively loose, but the market lacks a main line, so the shock trend continues. There are still expectations for future macro - policies, and the combination of monetary and fiscal policies is expected to push down policy interest rates, but the central bank avoids rapid interest rate decline, so the upward momentum of treasury bond futures is limited. In the short term, concerns about the dense supply of long - term bonds in the first quarter of next year, year - end institutional profit - taking pressure, and decreased trading activity of treasury bonds lead to a high possibility of shock consolidation [5]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 宝城期货国债期货早报（2025 年 12 月 2 日） ◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TL2603 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏弱 | 震荡整理 | 短线降息预期下降，中长期宽松 预期仍存 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—金融期货股指板块 品种：TL、T、TF、TS 日内观点：偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡整理 核心逻辑：昨日国债期货均震荡整理。消息面，统计局公布的 11 月制造业 PMI 为 49.2%，相对上月 的 49.0%有所改善，不过仍然位于荣枯线下方。 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term view of TL2603 is volatile, the medium - term view is volatile, and the intraday view is weak, with an overall view of volatile consolidation. The core logic is that the short - term expectation of interest rate cuts has decreased, while the medium - and long - term expectation of monetary easing still exists [1]. - For financial futures in the bond index sector (TL, T, TF, TS), the intraday view is weak, the medium - term view is volatile, and the reference view is volatile consolidation. The core logic is that on one hand, the marginal weakening of macro data in October indicates that the future monetary policy environment is expected to be loose, providing strong support for bond futures. On the other hand, the difficulty of achieving the annual growth target is low, so there is no strong need for a comprehensive interest rate cut in the short term, resulting in insufficient upward momentum for bond futures. Overall, bond futures will mainly show volatile consolidation in the short term [5]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Bond Index Sector - For TL2603, the short - term is volatile, the medium - term is volatile, the intraday is weak, with a view of volatile consolidation. The core logic is the change in interest rate cut expectations [1]. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Bond Index Sector - The intraday view of TL, T, TF, TS is weak, the medium - term view is volatile, and the reference view is volatile consolidation. The driving factors include the weakening of October macro data and the low difficulty of achieving the annual growth target [5].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report provides a comprehensive overview of the weekly price - volume data of various futures, including precious metals, non - ferrous metals, black metals, energy and chemical products, agricultural products, livestock products, and financial futures, as well as their year - to - date price changes [2][3] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Weekly Futures Price - Volume Overview - **Precious Metals**: Gold closed at 953.92 with a weekly increase of 2.91%, 20 - day annualized volatility of 18.13% (down 17.26%); Silver closed at 12,727.00 with a weekly increase of 8.96%, 20 - day annualized volatility of 34.29% (down 3.88%) [2] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper closed at 87,430.00 with a 2.07% weekly increase; Nickel at 117,080.00 with a 2.66% increase; Aluminum at 21,610.00 with a 1.27% increase, etc [2] - **Black Metals**: Coke closed at 1,574.50 with a 2.48% weekly decrease; Coking coal at 1,067.00 with a 3.26% decrease; Iron ore at 794.00 with a 1.08% increase [2] - **Energy and Chemical Products**: Crude oil closed at 453.90 with a 1.45% weekly increase; Methanol at 2,135.00 with a 6.54% increase; LU at 3,038.00 with a 1.36% decrease [2] - **Agricultural Products**: Corn closed at 2,244.00 with a 2.23% weekly increase; Cotton at 13,725.00 with a 1.97% increase; Sugar at 5,400.00 with a 0.88% increase [2] - **Livestock Products**: Eggs closed at 3,293.00 with a 3.42% weekly increase; Hogs at 11,465.00 with a 1.01% increase [2] - **Financial Futures**: IC closed at 6,974.20 with a 3.02% weekly increase; IF at 4,505.80 with a 1.75% increase; T at 107.94 with a 0.28% decrease [3] 2. Year - to - Date Price Changes - Silver had the highest year - to - date increase of 70.37%, followed by gold at 54.46%, while some products like 20 - day rubber had a year - to - date decrease of 24.80% [13] 3. Other Observations - LPG, gold, rapeseed, tin, and zinc had significant increases in weekly average open interest [15][17] - Silver, gold, copper, tin, and corn attracted more capital attention as indicated by the change in weekly settled funds [16]