投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 宝城期货国债期货早报（2026 年 2 月 10 日） 日内观点：偏强 中期观点：震荡 ◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TL2603 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏强 | 震荡整理 | 避险情绪提振国债投资需求 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—金融期货股指板块 品种：TL、T、TF、TS 参考观点：震荡整理 核心逻辑：昨日国债期货均震荡小幅反弹。由于最新宏观经济指标有所走弱，有效需求不足的问题显 现，"弱现实"压力上升，未来降息预期升温。另外临近长假，流动性趋紧，加上避险需 ...

国债期货日报 2026/2/9 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 项目 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货盘面 | T主力收盘价 | 108.490 | 0.06% T主力成交量 | 80346 | -2217↓ | | | TF主力收盘价 | 106.025 | 0.08% TF主力成交量 | 69532 | 7777↑ | | | TS主力收盘价 | 102.484 | 0.04% TS主力成交量 | 37563 | 10661↑ | | | TL主力收盘价 | 112.730 | 0.14% TL主力成交量 | 75752 | -25288↓ | | 期货价差 | TL2603-2606价差 | -0.11 | +0.03↑ T03-TL03价差 | -4.24 | -0.09↓ | | | T2603-2606价差 | -0.01 | +0.00↑ TF03-T03价差 | -2.46 | 0.01↑ | | | TF2603-2606价差 | -0.06 | +0.01↑ TS03-T03价差 | -6.01 | ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货国债期货早报（2026 年 2 月 5 日） ◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TL2603 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏弱 | 震荡整理 | 短期全面降息可能性下降 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—金融期货股指板块 品种：TL、T、TF、TS 日内观点：偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡整理 核心逻辑：昨日国债期货均震荡回调。由于央行 1 月份实施了结构性降息，加上美联储降息预期放 缓，短期内央行全面降息的可能性不高，国债期货的上行动能有所不足。不过最新的宏观经济指标有 所走 ...

【市场表现】 【政策面】 财政部表示，2026年，按照中央经济工作会议部署，财政部门将继续实施更加积极的财政政策，概括起 来就是"总量增加、结构更优、效益更好、动能更强"。"动能更强"，就是深化财税重点领域改革，进一 步激发经济的内生活力。优化转移支付结构，增强地方自主财力和统筹能力，提高转移支付资金效能。 通过加强财政资源和预算统筹、强化预算绩效管理、落实优化出口退税政策、清理规范税收优惠和财政 补贴等改革举措，进一步增强地方财政发展动能、助力全国统一大市场建设。总之，2026年财政部门 将"硬核"支持稳就业、稳企业、稳市场、稳预期，确保"十五五"实现良好开局。 【操作建议】 昨日股市降温，股债跷跷板影响下，期债震荡回升。往后看债市走向或主要取决于一季度政策力度和供 需状况，短期或仍处于震荡格局中，10债利率或在1.82%-1.88%区间震荡，T2603合约波动区间或在 107.6-108.3区间震荡，目前T2503合约在108.3附近可能面临一定上行阻力。单边策略上仍维持区间操 作。期现策略上关注TS、T与TF合约正套以及做阔基差策略。 免责声明：本报告中的信息均来源于被广发期货有限公司认为可靠的已公开资 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货国债期货早报（2026 年 1 月 27 日） ◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TL2603 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏弱 | 震荡整理 | 短期全面降息可能性下降 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—金融期货股指板块 品种：TL、T、TF、TS 日内观点：偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡整理 核心逻辑：昨日国债期货均窄幅震荡整理。2025 年宏观经济表现较强韧性，近期央行启动结构性降 息政策，短期内全面降息的可能性较低，国债期货上行动能不足。不过内需有效需求不足的问题仍存， ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - In the short term, Treasury bond futures will mainly fluctuate and consolidate, with the short - term possibility of a full - scale interest rate cut decreasing, and the upward momentum of Treasury bond futures being limited [1][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the TL2603 variety, the short - term view is "fluctuation", the medium - term view is "fluctuation", the intraday view is "weakening", and the reference view is "fluctuation and consolidation". The core logic is that the short - term possibility of a full - scale interest rate cut decreases [1] 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The varieties include TL, T, TF, and TS. The intraday view is "weakening", the medium - term view is "fluctuation", and the reference view is "fluctuation and consolidation". The core logic is that Treasury bond futures fluctuated and consolidated yesterday. Macro - demand has resilience, but the problem of relatively insufficient domestic demand still exists, so the future monetary and credit environment still needs to be relatively loose. Policy focuses on supporting technological innovation and promoting domestic consumption circulation, also requiring a loose monetary and credit environment. With the Fed in an interest - rate cut cycle, there are still expectations for domestic monetary easing. However, the short - term urgency of a full - scale interest rate cut is weak, and the direction of monetary policy is still mainly structural, so the upward momentum of Treasury bond futures is limited [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term view for TL2603 is "oscillation", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the intraday view is "weak". The overall view is "oscillation and consolidation". The core logic is that the probability of a short - term interest rate cut is low, while there is still an expectation of medium - and long - term monetary easing [1]. - For the TL, T, TF, and TS varieties, the intraday view is "weak", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the reference view is "oscillation and consolidation". The core logic is that the upward and downward momentum of Treasury bond futures is limited. Due to insufficient effective domestic demand, there is an expectation of a policy interest rate cut. With the decline of Treasury bond spot prices and the central bank's net injection in the open market, the downward momentum of Treasury bond futures is insufficient. However, the strong resilience of December's macro - economic data reduces the urgency of a short - term interest rate cut, so the upward momentum is also insufficient. Overall, short - term oscillation and consolidation are expected [5]. 3. Summary by Related Content Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector | Variety | Short - term | Medium - term | Intraday | Viewpoint Reference | Core Logic | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TL2603 | Oscillation | Oscillation | Weak | Oscillation and consolidation | Low short - term interest rate cut probability, medium - and long - term easing expectation [1] | Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - **Varieties**: TL, T, TF, TS - **Intraday View**: Weak - **Medium - term View**: Oscillation - **Reference View**: Oscillation and consolidation - **Core Logic**: Treasury bond futures oscillated narrowly yesterday. The upward and downward momentum is limited. Due to insufficient domestic demand, a loose monetary and credit environment is needed, so there is an expectation of a policy interest rate cut. The decline of spot prices and the central bank's net injection reduce the downward momentum, while the strong December macro - economic data reduces the short - term urgency of a rate cut, limiting the upward momentum. Short - term oscillation and consolidation are expected [5]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The TL2603 variety is expected to experience short - term and medium - term oscillations, with a weakening trend in the intraday period, and overall it will be in an oscillatory consolidation state. The short - term probability of interest rate cuts is low, but there are still long - term expectations for monetary easing [1]. - For the TL, T, TF, and TS varieties, the intraday view is weak, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the reference view is oscillatory consolidation. Due to factors such as the weakening of the downward momentum of Treasury bond futures and the insufficient upward momentum, it is expected to be mainly in an oscillatory consolidation state in the short term [5]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Index Sector - For the TL2603 variety, the short - term outlook is oscillatory, the medium - term is oscillatory, the intraday is weak, and the overall view is oscillatory consolidation. The core logic is that the short - term probability of interest rate cuts is low, while long - term easing expectations remain [1]. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Index Sector - The intraday view of TL, T, TF, and TS is weak, and the medium - term view is oscillatory, with a reference view of oscillatory consolidation. The core logic is that Treasury bond futures rebounded slightly yesterday. As the price of Treasury bond cash bonds fell, the interest rate cut expectations implied by the Treasury bond yield to maturity faded, and the anchoring effect of the policy interest rate emerged. Coupled with the central bank's resumption of net investment in the open market, the downward momentum of Treasury bond futures weakened. However, due to the insufficient effective domestic demand, there is still an expectation of a policy interest rate cut. But the manufacturing PMI returned to the expansion range in December, inflation data improved, and the short - term urgency of interest rate cuts weakened, resulting in insufficient upward momentum for Treasury bond futures [5].

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The TL2603 is expected to experience short - term and medium - term oscillations, with an intraday weakening trend, overall in a state of oscillatory consolidation. Short - term probability of interest rate cuts is low, but there are still long - term expectations of monetary easing [1]. - For financial futures index sectors such as TL, T, TF, and TS, the intraday view is weak, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the overall reference view is oscillatory consolidation. In the short term, due to strong macro - data resilience and bond supply pressure, bond yields have risen and bond futures prices have fallen. In the long run, due to insufficient domestic demand, there is room for policy rate cuts, which will support bond futures prices. Overall, short - term oscillatory consolidation is expected [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety View Reference - Financial Futures Index Sector - **Time Cycle Definition**: Short - term refers to within one week, and medium - term refers to two weeks to one month. For intraday, a decline greater than 1% is considered weak, a decline of 0 - 1% is considered weakly - trending, a rise of 0 - 1% is considered strongly - trending, and a rise greater than 1% is considered strong. The concepts of strongly - trending/weakly - trending only apply to intraday views [1][3][4]. - **TL2603**: Short - term: oscillatory; Medium - term: oscillatory; Intraday: weakly - trending. The view is oscillatory consolidation, with the core logic being a low short - term probability of interest rate cuts and long - term expectations of monetary easing [1]. 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Index Sector - **Varieties**: TL, T, TF, TS. Intraday view: weakly - trending; Medium - term view: oscillatory; Reference view: oscillatory consolidation. The core logic is that bond futures rebounded slightly yesterday. In the short term, strong macro - data resilience reduces the urgency of monetary easing, and the supply pressure of bond issuance has led to a significant rise in bond yields and a decline in bond futures prices since the end of December. In the long run, the problem of insufficient domestic demand requires a relatively loose monetary and credit environment, so there is still room for policy rate cuts, and bond futures prices have support. Overall, short - term oscillatory consolidation is expected [5].

Summary of Montage Technology Conference Call Company Overview - **Company Name**: Montage Technology (688008.SS) - **Industry**: Semiconductor, focusing on high-speed connectivity solutions for data center servers - **Key Products**: Memory interface chips (RCD/DB), interface support chips (SPD, TS, PMIC), connectivity solutions (MRCD/MDB, PCIe retimers, CXL MXC) [2][13][51] Core Insights and Arguments - **Investment Rating**: Initiated coverage with a Buy rating and a target price (TP) of Rmb170, representing a 60x P/E based on 2026 estimates [1][5][16] - **Growth Projections**: Expected net profit CAGR of 47% from 2024 to 2027, with specific annual growth rates of 59% in 2025, 45% in 2026, and 38% in 2027 [3][15] - **Market Position**: Montage is viewed as a rare opportunity in the Chinese semiconductor sector, particularly due to its alignment with global data center expansion amidst US tech restrictions [1][16] - **Earnings Impact**: Recent share price pullback attributed to one-off share incentive expenses, presenting a buying opportunity [1][5][16] Industry Dynamics - **AI Infrastructure Growth**: Anticipated growth in AI infrastructure to drive demand for global data center servers, with China's AI hardware capex projected to grow at over 30% CAGR from 2024 to 2027 [3][14][34] - **Investment Trends**: The first wave of AI investment focused on high-performance processors and memory storage, while a second wave is expected to emphasize high-speed interconnect solutions [14][42][43] - **Server Market Growth**: AI servers are projected to account for a significant portion of server shipments, with a forecasted growth of nearly 80% YoY in 2023 [36][40] Financial Highlights - **Earnings Summary**: - 2023: Net Profit of Rmb451 million, EPS of Rmb0.396 - 2024: Net Profit of Rmb1,412 million, EPS of Rmb1.235 (211.8% growth) - 2025E: Net Profit of Rmb2,242 million, EPS of Rmb1.958 (58.5% growth) - 2026E: Net Profit of Rmb3,248 million, EPS of Rmb2.837 (44.9% growth) - 2027E: Net Profit of Rmb4,490 million, EPS of Rmb3.921 (38.2% growth) [6][11] Product and Market Strategy - **Product Growth**: Key products expected to drive revenue growth include: - Memory interface (RCD/DB) with a CAGR of 29% - PCIe retimer with a CAGR of 60% - MRCD/MDB with a CAGR of 115% [17][54] - **Market Share**: Montage holds a 37% global market share in memory interconnect as of 2024, with expectations to maintain leadership through innovation and product development [56][61] Risks and Considerations - **Investment Risks**: Potential risks include market competition, technological advancements, and regulatory changes impacting the semiconductor industry [5][16] - **Dual-Listing Benefits**: The Hong Kong dual-listing is expected to enhance investor access and reduce export restriction risks [4][16] Conclusion Montage Technology is positioned as a key player in the semiconductor industry, particularly in the context of AI infrastructure growth. The company's strong financial projections, innovative product offerings, and strategic market positioning present a compelling investment opportunity amidst a rapidly evolving technological landscape.