2026 年 03 月 01 日 叶诗人之分堂 -2026/2/24-2026/3/1 汽车周报 《春晚机器人亮相、首台 Cybercab 下 线,继续看好 AI 应用方向 -- 2026/2/9-2026/2/15 汽车周报》 2026/02/23 本期投资后了 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 shaoyi@swsresearch.com 观点：①小鹏 VLA 2.0 下周发布，有望重归智驾 top 榜，推荐小鹏、理想，关注小马智 ○ 行等。②比亚迪技术发布会在即，有望解决高速+冬季用车痛点，巩固全系产品竞争， 推荐比亚迪。③英伟达 GTC 预热,全 ai 战略引燃智驾+机器人+工业 ai，推荐恒勃、银 轮、隆盛、福达、岱美，关注拓普、三花等。④我国养路费 2009 年并入成品油消费 税,随新能源渗透率提升,财政资金缺口扩大,"里程税"应运而生,但目前仅有海南 因特殊的政策环境，有望在今年落地试点，关注信息发展。 ● 行业情况更新: 根据乘联会周度数据，2 月第一周全国乘用车市场日均零售 4.1 万辆，同比去年 2 月同期 ○ 增长 54%，较上月同期增长 37%。 ● 最近一周传统原材料价格指 ...

行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 《春晚机器人亮相、首台 Cybercab 下 线，继续看好 AI 应用方向 —— 2026/2/9-2026/2/15 汽车周报》 2026/02/23 证券分析师 戴文杰 A0230522100006 daiwj@swsresearch.com 联系人 邵翼 A0230524120001 2026 年 03 月 01 日 小鹏比亚迪新技术发布，投资进入 事件催化密集期 行 业 及 产 业 看好 ——2026/2/24-2026/3/1 汽车周报 本期投资提示： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 评 证 券 研 究 报 告 汽车 shaoyi@swsresearch.com ⚫ 观点：①小鹏 VLA 2.0 下周发布，有望重归智驾 top 榜，推荐小鹏、理想，关注小马智 行等。②比亚迪技术发布会在即，有望解决高速+冬季用车痛点，巩固全系产品竞争， 推荐比亚迪。③英伟达 GTC 预热，全 ai 战略引燃智驾+机器人+工业 ai，推荐恒勃、银 轮、隆盛、福达、岱美，关注拓普、三花等。④我国养路费 2009 年并入成品油消费 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the automotive industry, particularly focusing on companies with strong supply-demand dynamics and pricing power, as well as those with technological cost-reduction capabilities [1][2]. Core Insights - The report highlights the impact of rising prices for memory, copper, aluminum, and key components, which are expected to lead to an upward trend in consumer vehicle prices. It suggests focusing on supply chain companies like Fuda, Bertley, Minshi, Top, and Jingu, as well as mid-to-high-end vehicle manufacturers such as Xiaopeng, NIO, Li Auto, BAIC, and Jianghuai [1]. - The report emphasizes the potential for profit recovery in the used car sector and improved profitability for dealers due to the industry's inflationary pricing cycle, recommending companies like Uxin [1][2]. - The report notes that the official implementation of new subsidies is expected to boost demand primarily in the mid-to-low-end market, with companies like BYD and Geely being highlighted for their performance potential [2]. Market Updates - According to the China Passenger Car Association, the average daily retail sales of passenger cars in the last week of December reached 123,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 17% [2]. - The automotive industry index rose by 2.53% this week, while the overall market index (CSI 300) increased by 2.79%, indicating that the automotive sector's performance was below the broader market [12]. - The report indicates that 201 automotive stocks rose while 68 fell, with the largest gainers being Siling Co., Jingu Co., and Kaizhong Co., which saw increases of 30.5%, 26.3%, and 23.3%, respectively [18]. Key Events - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology announced the 403rd batch of new car approvals, which includes notable models such as Xiaomi SU7, NIO ES9, and BYD's new models [3][4][5]. - The report discusses the rising costs of memory impacting the automotive industry, with NIO's founder highlighting that memory prices are becoming a significant cost pressure compared to traditional materials like lithium [6][7]. - A joint initiative by nine government departments aims to promote green consumption, with a focus on supporting the purchase of new energy vehicles and enhancing the automotive supply chain [10][11][26]. Financial Analysis - The automotive industry currently has a price-to-earnings ratio of 30.20, ranking 18th among all primary industries, indicating a moderate valuation compared to the broader market [15]. - The report notes that there are no companies facing stock unlocks in the upcoming week, which may provide stability in the market [21]. Company Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies with strong positions in AI and robotics, such as Desay SV, Jingwei Hirain, and Kobot, which are expected to benefit from the industry's technological advancements [1][2]. - It also suggests monitoring component manufacturers with solid earnings support and relatively low valuations, including Yinlun, Fuda, Shuanghuan, Jifeng, Minshi, Xingyu, and Ningbo Huaxiang [2].

Group 1 - The report highlights the transition from liquidity-driven markets to "physical validation" in 2026, marking a key year for the conversion of global monetary impulses into physical output [4] - It discusses the asymmetric game of global credit functions, with the US driving demand through administrative rate cuts and fiscal subsidies, Japan acting as an auditor of high-interest projects, and China filling global physical gaps as a "deflationary dividend" provider [5][6][7] - Asset allocation strategies are suggested under credit stratification, focusing on selecting targets with "physical rigidity" and cash flow resilience, particularly in the US, Japan, and China [8][9][10] Group 2 - The automotive sector saw a week-on-week increase in trading volume, but the automotive index underperformed compared to the Shanghai Composite Index, with significant declines in several key stocks [11][12] - Multiple new models from Xiaopeng and BYD were announced, including the Xiaopeng P7+ and G7, which will feature advanced AI capabilities and a dual technology route of pure electric and extended range [14][15] - The report maintains a "recommended" rating for the automotive industry, highlighting opportunities in domestic high-end brands and the acceleration of intelligent technology integration [16] Group 3 - The report notes the approval of SpaceX to deploy an additional 7,500 second-generation Starlink satellites, enhancing global internet service and suggesting investment opportunities in commercial aerospace and high-end materials [19][20] - China's "South Gate Plan" is introduced, focusing on future aerospace technologies, including high-speed flight and intelligent decision-making systems, indicating potential growth in related industries [21][22] Group 4 - The bond market is experiencing a "low volatility" trend, with the 10-year government bond yield rising to approximately 1.88% as of January 9, 2026, and a shift in institutional behavior noted [24][25][26] - The report anticipates that the 10-year government bond may continue to exhibit low volatility, enhancing its defensive attributes and making it a more liquid asset [26][27] Group 5 - The report indicates that the pig farming industry is entering a phase of accelerated capacity reduction, with a focus on low-cost operations and potential value reassessment for leading companies [38][39][40] - The poultry sector is expected to improve, with a notable increase in the number of breeding chickens and a focus on companies like Shennong Development and Lihua Shares [40] Group 6 - The mechanical equipment sector is highlighted as a key area for investment, with recommendations for companies involved in motorcycles, tools, and engineering machinery, as well as emerging technologies like humanoid robots and solid-state batteries [47][48][49] - The report emphasizes the potential for growth in the manufacturing sector, particularly in exports and innovative technologies, suggesting a favorable outlook for companies in these areas [47][48] Group 7 - The report discusses the acquisition of Hebei Kanda by Chaoyun Group for up to 450 million yuan, aimed at enhancing market competitiveness in home care products and increasing market coverage [55][56]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the automotive industry [1] Core Insights - The automotive industry is expected to face challenges in 2026 due to the reduction of new energy vehicle purchase tax incentives and the decline in vehicle replacement subsidies. However, there are opportunities for high-end upgrades and accelerated penetration of smart technologies. The report maintains a positive outlook on the industry, emphasizing the ongoing technological transformation [14][5] - The report highlights the launch of several new models from companies like Xpeng and BYD, indicating a competitive landscape with innovative offerings [11][12][13] Summary by Sections Weekly Dynamics - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) announced the 403rd batch of new vehicle models, including significant releases from Xpeng and BYD [11] - Xpeng unveiled four new models, including the P7+, G7, G6, and G9, with advanced AI capabilities and plans for mass production of humanoid robots and flying cars [12] - BYD launched the long-range version of the Qin family, featuring advanced technology and competitive pricing [13] Market Performance - From January 4 to January 9, 2026, the automotive sector underperformed compared to the Shanghai Composite Index, with the automotive index rising by 2.5% while the Shanghai Composite Index increased by 3.8% [15] - The report notes that the automotive sector's trading volume increased during this period, indicating heightened market activity [15] Key Companies and Profit Forecasts - The report provides a detailed forecast for several key companies, recommending stocks such as Xpeng, BYD, and others based on their expected earnings per share (EPS) and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for 2024 to 2026 [6]

Summary of Xiaopeng Motors Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Xiaopeng Motors - **Year**: 2026 Key Points Industry and Market Environment - The automotive industry has experienced a tightening market environment with reduced subsidies, impacting consumer purchasing costs [2][6][10] - The overall market has faced challenges due to the withdrawal of subsidies and consumer adaptation to new pricing structures [10] Product Strategy - Xiaopeng Motors plans to launch four new SUV models starting in April 2026, marking a significant shift from previous years where only one new model was introduced at a time [2][4] - The company aims to increase its SKU count due to the replacement of NVIDIA chips with self-developed Turing chips, which are expected to enhance product offerings [8] Technology and Cost Management - Xiaopeng will fully replace NVIDIA chips with its self-developed Turing chips across all new models, aiming to reduce hardware costs and improve competitiveness [5][6] - The introduction of the second-generation VLA large model in Q1 2026 will gradually cover all models by Q2 [5] Sales Targets and Strategies - The sales target for 2026 is set at 600,000 vehicles, with a quarterly goal of achieving an average monthly sales of 30,000 units [2][7] - The focus will shift towards Robotaxi and robot production in the second half of the year, with plans to trial Robotaxi services in Guangzhou by Q3 [7] Pricing and Consumer Strategy - Xiaopeng's pricing strategy is conservative, focusing on enhancing product configurations rather than competing solely on price [6][8] - The oil-electric parity strategy aims to promote the extended-range models, encouraging consumer acceptance of similar pricing for both extended-range and pure electric versions [8] Future Growth Opportunities - The company plans to expand its product line with more new SUV models and increase overseas exports, which are expected to be significant growth drivers [9] - The development of the Robotaxi sector is anticipated to be a key factor influencing Xiaopeng's stock price, with expectations of a market capitalization exceeding 200 billion yuan by the second half of 2026 [3][11] Financial Outlook - Xiaopeng's profit in 2026 is expected to remain stable compared to 2025, supported by strong foundational business from Volkswagen [12] - The company is optimistic about the potential for surprises in robot delivery and production in the latter half of the year [12][13] Overall Outlook - Despite uncertainties in the domestic automotive market, Xiaopeng is well-prepared for future developments, particularly in the Robotaxi sector, which could solidify its position in the market [13] - The current price level is viewed as a potential buying opportunity due to the company's promising outlook [13]

Summary of Xpeng Motors Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Xpeng Motors - **Market Position**: Transitioning from a pure automotive company to an AI technology company by 2026 [3] Key Industry Insights - **Sales Forecast**: Xpeng anticipates sales of 600,000 units by 2026, with domestic market growth of approximately 100,000 units and overseas contributions of about 15,000 units [2][4] - **Market Trends**: The overall domestic automotive market is expected to decline by around 3%, while the market share for new energy vehicles is projected to increase by 5-6 percentage points [2][4] Financial Projections - **Gross Margin**: Expected to improve in 2026, primarily due to profitability from the Volkswagen partnership, despite potential price reductions from subsidy policy changes [2][6] - **Profit Estimate**: Projected annual profit of approximately 2.5 billion RMB, with significant contributions from the Volkswagen business [2][6] - **Market Capitalization**: Current market cap is around 140 billion HKD, with expectations to reach 300 billion HKD by the end of 2026, driven by Volkswagen and Robotaxi business segments [2][8] Product Development and Launches - **New Models**: Plans to launch G7, G6, and P7+ extended-range models in Q1 2026, along with four new models including Volkswagen SUVs in Q2 and Q3 [2][7] - **Robotaxi Initiative**: Anticipated mass production of Robotaxi models in Q2 2026, with trial operations in Guangzhou later that year [2][7][12] Strategic Partnerships - **Collaboration with Volkswagen**: Development of two electric vehicles based on the G9 platform, with initial sales expectations of 100,000 units and projected revenue of 3 billion RMB from the partnership in the coming year [5][13] - **Shared Development**: Robotaxi models will share platforms with consumer models, providing cost advantages [5][12] Market Expansion - **Overseas Growth**: Significant progress in expanding overseas channels, particularly in Southeast Asia and Europe, with expectations of a 40-50% increase in overseas sales by 2026 [10] - **Local Production**: Establishment of factories in Indonesia and partnerships for localized production to mitigate trade tensions [10] Competitive Landscape - **EREV Market Outlook**: The penetration rate of extended-range electric vehicles (EREV) is expected to rise from 6-10% to 10-15% by the end of the year, with optimism about the technology's application in lower-priced models [9] - **Core Competencies**: Xpeng's strengths in intelligent driving technology, energy consumption control, and vehicle architecture platformization are seen as key competitive advantages [8] Future Outlook - **Robotaxi Development**: Positive outlook for Robotaxi operations, with expectations for advancements in autonomous driving technology and cost efficiencies [11][12] - **Industry Trends**: Overall optimism for the smart mobility industry, with potential for Xpeng to become a trillion-dollar market cap company despite current market uncertainties [15]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [6]. Core Insights - In October 2025, the company delivered 42,013 new vehicles, representing a year-on-year increase of 75.7% and a month-on-month increase of 1.0% [2][4]. - Cumulatively, from January to October 2025, the company delivered 355,000 new vehicles, marking a year-on-year increase of 190.0% [2][4]. - The company is expected to see steady sales growth driven by strong new vehicle cycles, enhanced marketing systems, and ongoing improvements in smart driving technology [2][9]. - The new models MONA M03 and P7+ are expected to initiate a new vehicle cycle for the company [9]. Summary by Sections Sales Performance - October 2025 saw a record monthly delivery of over 40,000 vehicles, with significant contributions from the new P7 model and strong sales of the SUV family [9]. - The MONA M03 model alone delivered over 15,000 units in October, with total deliveries exceeding 200,000 since its launch [9]. Future Outlook - For Q3 2025, the company anticipates deliveries between 113,000 and 118,000 units, representing a year-on-year growth of 142.8% to 153.6% [9]. - Expected revenue for Q3 2025 is projected to be between 19.6 billion and 21 billion CNY, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 94.0% to 107.9% [9]. Strategic Developments - The company is expanding its international presence, having entered seven new markets in Europe, Asia, and Africa, transitioning from rapid expansion to solid operations [9]. - The upcoming launch of the next-generation extended-range product, the X9, is anticipated to enhance the company's competitive edge with its unique features [9].

Investment Rating - The report rates the automotive industry as "Outperforming the Market" [29] Core Insights - The new energy vehicle sales continue to grow significantly, with various companies reporting impressive sales figures for October 2025 [3] - The report highlights the acceleration of intelligent driving technology among leading companies, indicating a shift towards enhanced user experience and competitive differentiation [3] - The investment recommendation focuses on companies that are leading in smart technology and user experience, specifically mentioning Xiaomi Group, Xiaopeng Motors, and Li Auto as key players to watch [3] Summary by Sections Sales Performance - Leap Motor reported sales of 70,289 units in October, showing a year-on-year increase of 84.1% and a month-on-month increase of 5.4% [3] - Xiaopeng Motors sold 42,013 units, with a year-on-year increase of 75.7% and a month-on-month increase of 1.0% [3] - NIO's sales reached 40,397 units, marking a year-on-year increase of 92.6% and a month-on-month increase of 16.3% [3] - BYD maintained strong sales with 441,706 units sold, although it experienced a year-on-year decline of 12.1% [3] - Other companies like Geely, Changan, and SAIC also reported significant sales figures, contributing to the overall growth in the sector [3] Technological Advancements - Xiaopeng Motors is enhancing its intelligent driving capabilities, with a notable penetration rate of 86% for its XNGP urban driving feature [3] - Tesla continues to leverage its Full Self-Driving (FSD) technology, achieving a record global delivery of 497,000 units in Q3 2025, a year-on-year increase of 7.4% [3] - The report emphasizes the importance of technological innovation in maintaining competitive advantages within the automotive industry [3] Market Dynamics - The report suggests that the industry is moving towards a concentrated market structure, with leading companies establishing user experience barriers through advanced technology [3] - The competitive landscape is characterized by a focus on smart technology and integrated ecosystems, as seen with Xiaomi's automotive strategy [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform the Market" for the automotive industry [2][9]. Core Insights - The automotive industry continues to show strong growth, with September production and sales reaching historical highs of 3.2758 million and 3.2264 million vehicles, respectively, reflecting month-on-month increases of 16.35% and 12.95% [9][26]. - The penetration rate of new energy vehicles (NEVs) has been steadily increasing, reaching 49.72% in September, with production and sales of NEVs at 1.6169 million and 1.604 million units, respectively, marking year-on-year growth of 23.67% and 24.65% [9][62]. - The report highlights two main investment themes: the impact of vehicle replacement policies and the commercialization of smart driving technologies, suggesting a focus on leading automotive companies and their supply chains [9][10]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Performance Review - As of October 22, the automotive (CITIC) industry index fell by 6.1%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 5.06 percentage points, ranking 29th among 30 CITIC primary industries [4][13]. - The automotive sector has seen a year-to-date increase of 23.23%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 6.51 percentage points [13][16]. 2. Key Industry Data Tracking 2.1. Industry Overview - In September, the automotive industry achieved production and sales of 3.2758 million and 3.2264 million vehicles, respectively, with both metrics showing over 10% growth month-on-month and year-on-year [9][26]. - The inventory coefficient for automotive dealers was 1.35 in September, indicating a slight increase but still below the warning line [26][29]. 2.2. Passenger Vehicles - Passenger vehicle production and sales reached 2.8996 million and 2.8585 million units in September, with year-on-year growth of 15.90% and 13.20% [37][47]. - Domestic brands accounted for 70.2% of passenger vehicle sales, with a year-on-year increase of 2.52 percentage points [47][50]. 2.3. Commercial Vehicles - Commercial vehicle production and sales in September were 376,200 and 367,900 units, respectively, with year-on-year growth of 27.74% and 29.61% [55][58]. - The new energy heavy truck market continues to perform well, with a market share of 28.93% in September [58][60]. 2.4. New Energy Vehicles - NEV production and sales in September were 1.6169 million and 1.604 million units, with a year-on-year increase of 23.67% and 24.65% [62][79]. - The cumulative NEV sales from January to September reached 11.2426 million units, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 35.20% [62][79]. 3. Important Industry Company News - The report includes updates on new vehicle launches, highlighting various models and their specifications, which reflect the ongoing innovation in the automotive sector [85].