证券研究报告 | 2025年11月30日 美股市场速览 弱于大市 价格快速修复，业绩预期平稳 价格走势：多数行业与全风格显著修复 本周，标普 500 涨 3.7%，纳斯达克涨 4.9%。 风格：小盘成长（罗素 2000 成长+6.3%）＞小盘价值（罗素 2000 价值+4.7%） ＞大盘成长（罗素 1000 成长+4.2%）＞大盘价值（罗素 1000 价值+3.4%）。 22 个行业上涨，1 个行业下跌，1 个基本持平。上涨的主要有：汽车与汽车 零部件（+9.3%）、媒体与娱乐（+6.5%）、半导体产品与设备（+6.2%）、 耐用消费品与服装（+4.8%）、零售业（+4.7%）；下跌的主要有：家庭与个 人用品（-0.4%）。 资金流向：多数行业带动资金显著回流 本周，标普 500 成分股估算资金流（涨跌额 x 成交量）为+214.0（亿美元， 下同），上周为-154.0，近 4 周为-133.6，近 13 周为+492.3。 22 个行业资金流入，2 个行业资金流出。资金流入的主要有：半导体产品与 设备（+46.3）、媒体与娱乐（+43.0）、汽车与汽车零部件（+33.5）、综 合金融（+17.4）、技术硬件 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Weaker than Market" rating for the U.S. stock market [1] Core Insights - The report highlights a significant market downturn due to renewed trade conflicts, with the S&P 500 dropping by 2.4% and the Nasdaq by 2.5% [3] - Only three sectors experienced gains, while 21 sectors saw declines, indicating widespread market fear [3] - The semiconductor sector attracted substantial capital inflows, contrasting with the overall outflow from the market [4] Summary by Sections Price Trends - The S&P 500 fell by 2.4%, and the Nasdaq decreased by 2.5% due to trade tensions [3] - The performance of sectors varied, with the Food, Beverage & Tobacco sector increasing by 1.7%, while Durable Goods & Apparel dropped by 8.4% [3] Capital Flows - The estimated capital flow for S&P 500 components was -$40.6 billion, indicating a significant outflow compared to the previous week [4] - The semiconductor products and equipment sector saw a capital inflow of $83.2 million, while the automotive sector experienced a $25.7 million outflow [4] Earnings Forecast - The report indicates a 0.3% upward adjustment in the earnings per share (EPS) forecast for S&P 500 components, with 21 sectors seeing an increase in earnings expectations [5] - The materials sector led the upward revisions with a 1.0% increase, while the energy sector faced a downward adjustment of 0.5% [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Weaker than the market" rating for the U.S. stock market [1] Core Insights - The U.S. stock market has shown signs of slowing capital inflow, with significant industry differentiation observed [1][4] - The S&P 500 index has experienced a slight decline of 0.3% this week, while the Nasdaq fell by 0.7% [3] - Energy, automotive, utilities, and technology hardware sectors have shown positive performance, while retail, media, and materials sectors have faced declines [3][4] Summary by Sections Price Trends - The S&P 500 index decreased by 0.3%, and the Nasdaq dropped by 0.7% this week - The performance ranking of styles is as follows: Large-cap value (+0.1%) > Small-cap value (-0.1%) > Large-cap growth (-0.8%) > Small-cap growth (-1.0%) [3] Capital Flows - Estimated capital flow for S&P 500 components was +$12.5 billion this week, down from +$134.6 billion last week - 10 sectors saw capital inflows, while 14 experienced outflows - Notable inflows were seen in semiconductors (+$23.6 million), automotive (+$15.9 million), and technology hardware (+$9.5 million) [4] Earnings Forecast - The earnings per share (EPS) forecast for S&P 500 components was adjusted upward by 0.3% this week - 21 sectors saw an increase in earnings expectations, while materials and retail sectors experienced declines [5]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the changing nature of scarcity in the market, emphasizing that scarcity is not eternal and is influenced by time, supply and demand, and substitutes. It highlights the decline in the price of Moutai liquor due to reduced demand and increased supply, suggesting that businesses must adapt to consumer trends to remain competitive [2][24]. Group 1: Definition of Scarcity - Scarcity is defined as the limitation in obtaining resources needed by people, where supply is insufficient relative to demand. It can be categorized into absolute scarcity and relative scarcity [7]. - In investment terms, scarcity refers to a situation where demand for a product remains stable or grows while supply cannot keep pace, often due to a lack of substitutes [8][9]. Group 2: Types of Scarcity - Geographic scarcity occurs when a product is unique to a specific location, such as Moutai liquor, which can only be produced in Guizhou [11]. - Technological scarcity is characterized by monopolistic advantages in technology, as seen with companies like Nvidia and Microsoft, which have maintained strong market positions due to their technological innovations [12][15]. - Non-renewable scarcity refers to resources that are limited and deplete over time, such as indium, which has a finite supply and is crucial for various technologies [21]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Trends - The article notes that supply growth can destroy scarcity, as seen with rare earth elements, where excessive mining has led to a decrease in perceived value [22]. - The demand for cocoa has surged due to its limited supply and environmental vulnerabilities, leading to significant price increases [23]. - The decline in demand for high-end products, such as Moutai, due to anti-corruption measures and consumer downgrading, has resulted in a collapse of its scarcity and a drop in prices [24][25].

Group 1 - The core truth of today's investment world is that technological moats are failing, supply chains are critical to a company's survival, and the key metric determining value is "pulsation speed" [1][2] - Dell's stock price surged 269 times in the 1990s due to its innovative supply chain design, which included zero finished goods inventory and direct sales to customers [1][2] - Silicon Graphics, once a leader in 3D graphics technology, faced a dramatic decline due to supply chain failures, highlighting the importance of supply chain resilience [2] Group 2 - The "pulsation speed" framework from MIT analyzes how industries oscillate between vertical integration and horizontal modularity, with the transition speed determined by the industry's pulsation speed [5][7] - Different industries exhibit varying pulsation speeds, with personal computers having a product pulsation speed of less than 6 months, while pharmaceuticals can take over 10 years for new drug development [6][14] - The "whip effect" illustrates how small demand fluctuations can be amplified throughout the supply chain, leading to significant impacts on upstream suppliers [8] Group 3 - The three-dimensional capability chain map helps analyze a company's competitive position within its supply chain and technology ecosystem, focusing on organizational, technological, and capability chains [10][11][12] - Companies must adapt to market changes by managing their resources efficiently, as demonstrated by Dell's just-in-time production model that minimizes inventory cycles [13] - Investment strategies should be tailored based on industry types, such as "fruit fly" industries with rapid iteration cycles and "elephant" industries with stable cash flows [18][20]

Core Insights - The ranking of global brands in China reveals a significant interdependence between the US and Chinese economies, with American brands numbering 57, placing them second in the list [1] Market Dependency - American brands have a substantial presence in the Chinese market, generating $1.2 trillion in revenue, which accounts for 7% of their global sales, surpassing direct trade volumes between the two countries [1] - This dependency is evident not only in traditional consumer goods but also in upstream supply chains, such as Intel chips and Microsoft operating systems [1] Supply Chain Complementarity - The competitiveness of American brands relies on China's manufacturing capabilities, exemplified by Apple's assembly of iPhones in China, which integrates supply chains from Japan and Taiwan [3] - The "China manufacturing + American brand" model fosters a symbiotic relationship, allowing US consumers to bypass tariffs through cross-border e-commerce [3] Consumption Structure Upgrade - The demand for high-end brands among Chinese consumers, with Apple ranking among the top three, reflects a trend of consumption upgrading [3] - The rise of domestic brands in sectors like 3C digital and home appliances, such as Huawei and Xiaomi, creates differentiated competition with American brands, shifting the market from a "one-way input" to a "bilateral competition" [3] Economic Policy and Industrial Competition - The relative advantage of American brands in China highlights both their global capabilities and vulnerabilities in the Chinese market [3] - For instance, Sam's Club in China outperforms its US counterparts, indicating American companies' reliance on the Chinese market for excess profits [3] - US government policies restricting Chinese investments in the US inadvertently strengthen the first-mover advantage of American brands in China [3] Technology Standards and Innovation Linkage - The ranking shows that American brands are predominantly in high-tech sectors, while Chinese brands excel in application scenario innovations, such as Xiaomi's ecosystem and Huawei's 5G [4] - This dynamic reflects a balance in the innovation chain, where the US leads in foundational technologies while China expands application ecosystems [4] Deep Insights - The intertwined nature of the US and Chinese economies is evident, with American companies leveraging brand premiums for high profits, while Chinese firms utilize manufacturing capabilities and market size for technological advancement [5] - This relationship is a result of globalized division of labor and suggests that future competition will increasingly focus on standard-setting in emerging areas like AI ethics and data sovereignty [5] - The ranking not only represents consumer preferences but also serves as a microcosm of the shifting economic strengths between the two nations [5]