债市多种叙事切换， "TACO"交易能否重现？ 证券研究报告/固收专题报告 2025 年 10 月 12 日 执业证书编号：S0740525060003 Email：lvpin@zts.com.cn 执业证书编号：S0740525070001 Email：yanly@zts.com.cn 执业证书编号：S0740524070004 Email：youyong@zts.com.cn Email：suht@zts.com.cn 2025-09-21 2025-09-14 通央企红利 ETF 投资价值分析》 2025-09-10 请务必阅读正文之后的重要声明部分 分析师：吕品 报告摘要 9 月机构行为模式：杀基金重仓债 分析师：严伶怡 伴随行情演绎，9 月各品种债券多数回调：1）利率债长端回调幅度大于短端，曲线走 陡，长端利差走阔，5Y-3Y 利差收窄。2）二永长端领跌，5-7Y 品种信用利差迅速走 阔。而这些期限、品种基本上是基金偏好的重仓券。从现券交易情况看，除短融外， 2024 年以来基金偏好净买入 7-10Y 利率债、20-30Y 国债、1-5Y 中票以及 7-10Y 二 永品种。 分析师：游勇 与 22 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The seasonal characteristics and calendar effects of bond market institutional behavior are important areas of bond market microstructure research. By combining the calendar effects with the bond investment patterns of different institutions, investors can seize structural opportunities, improve investment win - rates, and enhance return levels [6][9][14]. - Among different institutions, bank wealth management is most significantly affected by seasonality, followed by commercial banks and insurance companies, while the seasonality of public funds is relatively weak [6]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Bank Wealth Management - **Wealth Management Scale**: The scale of bank wealth management shows a seasonal pattern of "shrinking at the end of the quarter and growing at the beginning of the quarter". Quarterly, the scale surges most significantly in the second and third quarters. Annually, the first quarter is mainly affected by the Spring Festival, and the fourth quarter enters a seasonal off - peak. Weekly, the significant scale changes are concentrated in the last week of the quarter - end month and the first week of the quarter - beginning month [16][19][20]. - **Wealth Management Bond Allocation**: The bond - allocation intensity of wealth management increases in months of large - scale growth and the year - end "pre - emptive" period. It decreases at the end of the quarter and before the Spring Festival. The months with large bond - allocation proportions are April, July, August, May, November, and October [24][25]. - **Implications for Bond Investment**: In the bond - allocation months of the second and third quarters, short - term products such as certificates of deposit, short - term financing bonds, and short - term policy - bank bonds within 1 year are the main allocation varieties. In the year - end "pre - emptive" stage, the bond - allocation term is extended. Attention should be paid to the investment opportunities of varieties that wealth management focuses on and has pricing power [28][36]. Commercial Banks - **Seasonal Patterns of Liabilities and Supervision**: The liability growth of commercial banks mainly occurs in the first half of the year, with a "good start" in the first quarter. Deposits usually grow at the end of the quarter and decline at the beginning of the quarter. Bank bond allocation is restricted by performance growth, regulatory assessment, and the seasonality of fiscal bond issuance [7][41]. - **Large Banks**: Bond - allocation increases when the deposit - loan gap is high and the supply of interest - rate bonds is large. At the end of the quarter after the large - scale supply of long - term bonds, pay attention to the opportunities of steepening the treasury bond curve through "buying short and selling long" and be vigilant about the additional adjustment pressure on long - term varieties. When the bond market is continuously adjusting, large banks may sell old bonds to realize floating profits at the end of the quarter [55][58][64]. - **Rural Commercial Banks**: Bond - allocation is large in the first quarter due to the "good start" and in the year - end pre - emptive stage. In the second half of the year, they allocate bonds evenly in non - quarter - end months. Tracking the behavior of rural commercial banks is a good leading indicator to judge whether the year - end pre - emptive market will start [65][72][75]. Insurance - **Seasonal Influencing Factors**: Insurance premium income has an obvious "good start" at the beginning of the year. In the past two years, the reduction of the预定 interest rate has led to super - seasonal growth. Some insurance companies may adjust their positions at the end of the quarter to improve solvency assessment indicators due to the "Solvency II" assessment [79][80][85]. - **Insurance Bond - Allocation Seasonality**: Bond - allocation peaks usually occur in March and December. In the past two years, due to the reduction of the预定 interest rate, there has been super - seasonal bond - allocation in August and September [89]. - **Implications for Bond Investment**: Pay attention to the opportunity of narrowing the spread between 30 - year local bonds and treasury bonds in March. Also, focus on the opportunity of narrowing the spread between 30 - 10 - year treasury bonds after the reduction of the预定 interest rate [92][95][98]. Public Funds - **General Situation**: Public funds' bond investment follows the market and has relatively weak seasonality. However, some products and individual time points show certain seasonal characteristics [100]. - **Money Market Funds**: Affected by the end - of - quarter assessment of banks and liquidity management needs, the scale of money market funds declines at the end of the quarter and recovers slowly after the quarter. Pay attention to the opportunity of declining yields of certificates of deposit during the bond - allocation windows in mid - March, late June, and late December [4]. - **Amortized - cost - method Bond Funds**: During the open - period peak, pay attention to the opportunity of narrowing the spread of policy - bank bonds with corresponding maturities [4][10]. - **Bond - type Funds**: The second quarter is the peak period of bond - allocation throughout the year. Pay attention to the opportunity of narrowing the spread between 5 - year old policy - bank bonds and 2 - 5 - year secondary capital bonds. At the end of the year, there is a "pre - emptive" behavior, and attention should be paid to varieties with good trading attributes such as 10 - year China Development Bank bonds, 30 - year treasury bonds, and 5 - year secondary capital bonds [4][10].

Group 1: Corporate Bond Issuance - Henan Jiaotou Group completed the issuance of 1.5 billion yuan corporate bonds with an interest rate of 1.80% [1] - Luoyang Urban-Rural Construction Investment Group issued 1 billion yuan short-term financing bonds with an interest rate of 1.87% [2] - Zhoukou Investment Group completed the issuance of 1 billion yuan corporate bonds with an interest rate of 2.39% [3] - Zhuhai Huafa Group Co., Ltd. reduced the coupon rate of "20 Huafa Group MTN003" by 337 basis points to 1% [10] Group 2: Corporate Investigations and Legal Issues - Huang Hui, the deputy general manager of Anhui Transportation Intelligent Technology Co., Ltd., is under investigation for serious violations of discipline and law [4] - Sierte is under investigation by the China Securities Regulatory Commission for violations related to information disclosure [5] - *ST Gaohong's stock faces the risk of being delisted due to its price falling below par value [8] Group 3: Shareholding Changes - Wang Haoyu, the controlling shareholder of Dayu Water-saving, pledged 11 million shares, accounting for 1.08% of the company's total share capital [7] - Suzhou Shunwei, a shareholder of Longqi Technology, plans to reduce its holdings by no more than 19.1916 million shares, which is up to 4.09% of the company's total share capital [9] Group 4: Corporate Actions - Chint Electric terminated the spin-off of Chint Aneng for listing on the Shanghai Stock Exchange main board [6]

Core Insights - The report indicates that commercial banks are increasing their allocation to interest rate bonds, while broad-based funds are reducing their holdings in government bonds and policy financial bonds [4][5][51]. Group 1: Interbank Leverage Ratio - As of the end of July, the interbank market leverage ratio was 106.81%, down from 107.64% at the end of the previous month, indicating a decrease of 0.83 percentage points and remaining below historical levels for the same period [2][11]. Group 2: Custody Data Overview - In July 2025, the total custody scale of bonds at China Central Depository & Clearing Co., Ltd. (CCDC) and Shanghai Clearing House reached 173.03 trillion yuan, an increase of 174.49 billion yuan from the previous month [3][14]. Group 3: By Bond Type - The total custody scale of major interest rate bonds (government bonds, local government bonds, policy bank bonds) reached 114.81 trillion yuan, with a month-on-month increase of 143.74 billion yuan. Commercial banks were the main buyers, increasing their holdings by 154.99 billion yuan, while broad-based funds, securities companies, and foreign institutions reduced their holdings [4][51]. - The custody scale of major credit bonds (corporate bonds, medium-term notes, short-term financing bonds, and ultra-short-term financing bonds) was 16.04 trillion yuan, with a month-on-month increase of 20.07 billion yuan. Broad-based funds and commercial banks were the main buyers, increasing their holdings by 116.8 billion yuan and 71.7 billion yuan, respectively [4][30][51]. - The custody scale of interbank certificates of deposit was 20.74 trillion yuan, a decrease of 37.43 billion yuan, with commercial banks and foreign institutions being the main sellers [4][47][51]. Group 4: By Institution - The custody scale of commercial banks reached 84.13 trillion yuan, increasing by 137.58 billion yuan. They increased their holdings in interest rate bonds and credit bonds by 154.99 billion yuan and 7.17 billion yuan, respectively, while reducing their holdings in interbank certificates of deposit by 24.58 billion yuan [5][52]. - The custody scale of broad-based funds was 37.55 trillion yuan, decreasing by 83.7 billion yuan. They increased their holdings in credit bonds by 116.8 billion yuan but reduced their holdings in interest rate bonds and interbank certificates of deposit by 117.9 billion yuan and 2.26 billion yuan, respectively [5][52]. - Foreign institutions had a custody scale of 3.79 trillion yuan, decreasing by 301.6 billion yuan, with reductions in interest rate bonds, interbank certificates of deposit, and credit bonds by 129 billion yuan, 167.3 billion yuan, and 5.4 billion yuan, respectively [5][57].

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - The bond market is likely to continue its range - bound fluctuations. The adjustment range of the bond market will be protected by the buying power of allocation investors and the central bank's liquidity injection, which will suppress the upward space of interest rates. Meanwhile, the relative "absence" of allocation power since this year will also restrict the downward space of interest rates [39]. - It is expected that 1.80% may become the temporary top of the 10 - year Treasury bond interest rate, and currently, it is in the process of reaching the top [22]. - In the volatile market, attention can be paid to Guokai bonds of the 10 - year maturity, but the further manifestation of their value needs the stabilization of bond market sentiment and liquidity [40]. Summary by Directory 1. Bond Market Review 1.1 Bond Market Fluctuated with the Stock Market, and the Long - end Was Significantly Weak - The bond market followed the stock market and failed to have an independent trend. The stock - bond "seesaw" effect was obvious, and the bond market was "desensitized" to the fundamentals. There was a concentrated redemption of bond funds, and the interest rate center shifted upward with increased daily fluctuations. The yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond active bond broke through the 1.75% key point on 8/18 and then moved in the range of 1.75% - 1.79%. The overall yield curve shifted upward, with the medium - short end being significantly weak [6][7]. 1.2 Tax Payment Period Led to an Unexpected Convergence of Funds - The funding situation unexpectedly tightened and then eased marginally, with increased fluctuations in funding rates. The reasons included the resonance impact of the traditional tax period and the non - traditional stock - bond market linkage changing the flow of funds. The central bank increased the liquidity injection in advance to stabilize expectations and block the spread of redemption pressure [14]. 2. This Week's Focus 2.1 Has the Interest Rate Reached the Top? - In the past week, the central bank's support was effective, allocation investors continued to buy, and trading investors changed from selling to slightly net buying, which may gradually restrict the upward space of interest rates. It is expected that 1.80% may become the temporary top of the 10 - year Treasury bond interest rate [22]. - The central bank's timely support protected the bond market adjustment. When the bond market interest rate rose to a temporary high or the selling power of trading investors such as funds increased, the central bank would increase its open - market investment within 1 - 4 days [23]. - The buying power of allocation investors formed support at the 1.8% level of the 10 - year Treasury bond, suppressing the further upward space. However, the allocation power has been relatively "absent" this year, weakening the internal repair momentum of the bond market [26][27]. - Trading investors changed from selling to slightly net buying. Funds gradually increased their purchases of Treasury bonds and short - term financing bills in the second half of the week. Meanwhile, wealth management products slightly net - bought medium - term notes, short - term financing bills, and Tier 2 capital bonds, and the current redemption pressure was generally controllable [28][31]. 2.2 How Many Basis Points Has the Market Priced for the Newly Issued Tax - Inclusive Treasury Bonds? - The 30 - year Treasury bond basically fully priced the 6% VAT on the basis of the fair active bond price. The new 10 - year Treasury bond priced about 3% of the VAT, indicating that the current bond market allocation power may be relatively weak, and the digestion of the 6% VAT for ultra - long - term varieties is limited [3][38]. 3. The Bond Market May Continue Range - Bound Fluctuations - The bond market is likely to continue range - bound fluctuations. The buying power of allocation investors and the central bank's liquidity injection will suppress the upward space of interest rates, while the relative "absence" of allocation power will restrict the downward space [39]. - In the volatile market, Guokai bonds of the 10 - year maturity can be considered. After the adjustment since late July, the allocation cost - effectiveness of 10 - year Guokai bonds is prominent, and the VAT policy adjustment may further promote the narrowing of the spread between Guokai and Treasury bonds [40].

Core Viewpoint - The bond issuance scale of securities firms remains high in 2022, with a total of 430.765 billion yuan issued, and the cost of bond issuance has significantly decreased due to more relaxed market liquidity [1][2]. Group 1: Bond Issuance and Financing Costs - The median coupon rate for newly issued bonds by securities firms in 2022 is 3%, down from 3.43% in the same period last year [1][2]. - The largest single issuance in 2022 was by Industrial Securities, with a bond size of 5.9 billion yuan and a coupon rate of 3.02% [2]. - The financing costs have decreased, as evidenced by the comparison of similar bonds; for instance, the "22 Dongxing G2" bond was issued at a rate of 2.9%, compared to 3% for a similar bond issued earlier [2]. Group 2: Market Dynamics and Strategic Adjustments - Securities firms are increasingly recognizing the importance of capital-intensive businesses, leading to a strong impulse for financing [4]. - East Securities plans to use the proceeds from its bond issuance to repay maturing debt, highlighting the need for effective risk management in a more market-oriented capital environment [4]. - The competition among securities firms is intensifying, with financing capability becoming a core competency as they seek to expand financing channels and reduce financial risks [6]. Group 3: Trends in Equity Financing - Since 2021, there has been a surge in equity financing among securities firms, with many announcing plans for private placements and rights issues, with the latter being the most frequent [4]. - For example, CITIC Securities launched a 28 billion yuan rights issue plan, indicating a trend towards large-scale financing [4][5]. Group 4: Debt Levels and Leverage - The total bond balance of listed securities firms reached 1.93 trillion yuan, with CITIC Securities leading at 158 billion yuan [5][6]. - The leverage ratios of leading firms are significantly higher than the industry average, with only three firms exceeding a leverage ratio of 5 in 2021 [6]. - The disparity in profitability and leverage between top and bottom firms is widening, indicating a strengthening of the "Matthew Effect" in the industry [6].

Core Points - The People's Bank of China has released a draft decision to amend certain regulations, focusing on enhancing the functions of bond registration, custody, and settlement institutions, optimizing information disclosure mechanisms, and improving the liquidity of pledged bonds and the efficiency of fund utilization [1][2] Group 1: Regulatory Changes - The amendments primarily involve the issuance of financial bonds in the interbank market, non-financial corporate debt instruments, and the management of bond registration, custody, and settlement [2] - The draft includes significant updates to three management measures, specifically the "Measures for the Administration of Financial Bond Issuance in the National Interbank Bond Market," "Measures for the Administration of Non-Financial Corporate Debt Financing Instruments in the Interbank Bond Market," and "Measures for the Administration of Bond Registration, Custody, and Settlement in the Interbank Bond Market" [2][3] - The definition and scope of bond registration and custody institutions have been updated, explicitly including the Shanghai Clearing House as a legal entity [2][3] Group 2: Information Disclosure - The revised regulations require issuers to submit relevant information disclosure documents through the financial bond issuance management information system to the interbank lending center, which will then forward these documents to the bond registration and custody institutions [3][4] - The changes aim to enhance the role of the interbank lending center in managing financial bond issuance information and ensuring compliance with disclosure requirements [4] Group 3: Pledged Bonds - A significant change is the removal of the previous requirement for pledged bonds to be frozen, which is expected to enhance liquidity and efficiency in the bond market [7][9] - The new regulations allow bond registration and custody institutions to provide pledge registration services without freezing the pledged bonds, enabling them to be reused or traded during the pledge period [9][10] - This adjustment is anticipated to improve the utilization of collateral and facilitate the development of a multi-tiered bond market, aligning domestic practices with international standards [9][10][11]

Group 1: Financing Environment - The financing scale of real estate companies in the first half of this year was 184.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 30% [1] - In the second quarter, financing reached 100.4 billion yuan, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 19%, but a year-on-year decrease of 25% [1] - Despite marginal improvements in financing support policies, the financing situation remains severe, especially for private real estate companies [1][6] Group 2: Domestic and International Financing - Domestic bond financing costs decreased to 2.71% in the first half of this year, down 0.2 percentage points from the entire year of 2024 [3] - In contrast, the cost of issuing overseas bonds remains high, with rates around 8.60% for the first half of 2025 [2] - The issuance of overseas bonds by real estate companies is primarily for refinancing existing debts, with high interest rates reflecting investor caution [2][3] Group 3: Debt Maturity and Repayment Pressure - In 2024, the maturity scale of real estate company bonds is expected to reach 482.9 billion yuan, while the issuance scale is only 220.9 billion yuan [7] - The third quarter of 2024 is projected to be a peak period for debt repayment, with approximately 160 billion yuan due [7] Group 4: Alternative Liquidity Solutions - Real estate companies are exploring various methods to supplement liquidity, such as asset sales and debt restructuring [8] - For instance, Vanke completed a stock sale plan raising approximately 479 million yuan, while Rongsheng Development announced asset swaps to reduce debts [8] Group 5: Industry Recovery Mechanisms - The urban real estate financing coordination mechanism has accelerated, with approved loans exceeding 670 billion yuan in 2024 [9] - The government plans to issue 440 billion yuan in special bonds to support investment and debt resolution in the real estate sector [9] - Successful debt restructuring cases among several companies provide a model for others in distress, promoting industry risk clearance [10]

Group 1 - The report indicates that the domestic monetary market continued to ease in May, with the average repo rates in the interbank and exchange markets mostly declining [2][3][13] - The average values for R001, GC001, R007, and GC007 decreased by 16 basis points, 9 basis points, 14 basis points, and 14 basis points respectively, reaching 1.54%, 1.57%, 1.63%, and 1.64% [14][16] - The report forecasts a seasonal increase in funding rates for June due to the quarter-end factors and the peak of maturing interbank certificates of deposit and reverse repos [6][12][55] Group 2 - The report highlights that the Federal Reserve's June meeting is expected to maintain the pause on interest rate cuts, with stable short-term U.S. Treasury rates observed since May [8] - The European Central Bank decided to lower the three key rates in the Eurozone by 25 basis points on June 5 [8][9] - The report notes that the excess reserve ratio is estimated to be 1.1% for May and 1.3% for June, indicating a slight increase in liquidity [2][46][74] Group 3 - The report mentions that the central bank is expected to actively inject liquidity in June, with a projected slight increase in the excess reserve ratio [6][12][55] - The report also states that the interbank and exchange overnight transaction volumes and proportions increased compared to the previous month, with the average daily transaction volume for R001 at 58.6 trillion and for GC001 at 19.1 trillion [38][40] - The report anticipates that the seasonal increase in funding rates will be influenced by the high financing scale of government bonds and the pressure from maturing financial instruments [79]

Group 1: Debt Issuance and Replacement - The issuance of replacement bonds has exceeded 1.6 trillion yuan, completing over 80% of the annual quota for replacing stock hidden debts of 2 trillion yuan [1] - Local governments have cumulatively issued over 120 billion yuan in land reserve special bonds, indicating a significant gap between actual issuance and publicly announced figures [1] Group 2: Monetary Policy - The central bank conducted a 1,193 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation with a net withdrawal of 72 billion yuan, maintaining an operation interest rate of 1.40% [2] Group 3: Regional Debt Limits - The Ministry of Finance has allocated a new government debt limit of 111 billion yuan for Guangxi in 2025, including 30.3 billion yuan for general debt and 80.7 billion yuan for special debt [3] - Guizhou Province plans to issue 33.24 billion yuan in government special bonds to support existing government investment projects, with an increase in provincial revenue budget by 3.504 billion yuan [4] Group 4: Bond Market Developments - Zhengzhou City Investment Group made its debut in the credit bond market with a 1 billion yuan issuance, featuring a dual-term structure with low interest rates [5] - The first issuance of aerospace technology bonds in the country was completed, with a scale of 300 million yuan and an interest rate of 2.28% [6] - Xuchang City Investment Group issued a 1 billion yuan short-term financing bond at an interest rate of 1.83% [7] - Yuzhou City Guoyun Capital Operating Company completed a 20 million yuan corporate bond issuance at an interest rate of 2.90% [8] - Kaifeng Development Group issued a 600 million yuan corporate bond at an interest rate of 2.73% [10] Group 5: Corporate Financing - New City Development plans to issue senior unsecured US dollar bonds, marking a significant move for private real estate companies to re-enter the overseas capital market [11] Group 6: Market Sentiment and Investment Opportunities - The market is seeing an increase in interest in "dim sum bonds" and onshore RMB bonds, with a recommendation to focus on high-yield city investment bonds, particularly those issued with SBLC or cross-border guarantees [15][16]