固定收益 | 固定收益定期 2025 年 7 月中债登和上清所托管数据 证券研究报告 商业银行增配利率债，广义基金减配国债政金债 1、银行间杠杆率：环比下降，低于往年同期 7 月末银行间债市杠杆率环比上升：7 月末银行间市场杠杆率为 106.81%， 较上月末的 107.64%下降 0.83pct，总体低于历年同期杠杆率。 2、托管数据总览 2025 年 7 月，中债登、上清所债券总托管规模 173.03 万亿元，环比增加 17449 亿元；其中，中债登环比增加 14102 亿元、上清所环比增加 3347 亿元。 3、分券种：国债净融资下滑，同业存单延续净偿还 利率债：2025 年 7 月，主要利率债（国债、地方政府债、政策性银行债） 合计托管规模 114.81 万亿元，环比增加 14374 亿元；商业银行为增持主力， 增持 15499 亿元；广义基金、证券公司、境外机构减持。 信用债：2025 年 7 月，主要信用债（企业债、中票、短融、超短融）合计 托管规模 16.04 万亿元，环比增加 2007 亿元；广义基金、商业银行为主要 增持机构，分别增持 1168 亿元、717 亿元；证券公司减持。 同业存单： ...

固定收益 | 固定收益点评 固收周度点评 证券研究报告 债市或延续区间波动 1、债市复盘：股市继续压制、资金收敛，赎回压力增加 本周，债市跟随股市演绎，未能走出独立行情，呈现近乎"股市涨势延续、 债市跌势不止"的单边趋势：（1）股债"跷跷板"效应明显，债市对基本 面"脱敏"。（2）市场情绪敏感，出现债基的集中赎回。上半周赎回压力加 大，基金卖盘明显增加。（3）利率中枢上移，单日波动加大。10 年国债活 跃券收益率 8/18 便突破 1.75%关键点位，而后运行于 1.75%-1.79%的区间。 资金面超预期收敛后边际缓和，资金利率波动加大，大行净融出规模快速 回落，整体上呈现两点特征：（1）预期与现实的背离，原因在于传统的税 期和非传统的股债市场联动改变资金流向两点因素形成的共振冲击。（2） 流动性投放力度大、节奏前置以稳定预期，阻断赎回压力的蔓延。 2、利率筑顶了吗？ 过去的一周，在赎回担忧发酵的同时，央行呵护显效、配置盘持续买入、 交易盘抛售到小幅净买入，或逐步对利率向上的空间形成一定约束，我们 预计 1.80%或成为 10年期国债利率的阶段性顶部，当前正处筑顶的过程中。 央行的适时呵护对债市的调整形成一 ...

Core Points - The People's Bank of China has released a draft decision to amend certain regulations, focusing on enhancing the functions of bond registration, custody, and settlement institutions, optimizing information disclosure mechanisms, and improving the liquidity of pledged bonds and the efficiency of fund utilization [1][2] Group 1: Regulatory Changes - The amendments primarily involve the issuance of financial bonds in the interbank market, non-financial corporate debt instruments, and the management of bond registration, custody, and settlement [2] - The draft includes significant updates to three management measures, specifically the "Measures for the Administration of Financial Bond Issuance in the National Interbank Bond Market," "Measures for the Administration of Non-Financial Corporate Debt Financing Instruments in the Interbank Bond Market," and "Measures for the Administration of Bond Registration, Custody, and Settlement in the Interbank Bond Market" [2][3] - The definition and scope of bond registration and custody institutions have been updated, explicitly including the Shanghai Clearing House as a legal entity [2][3] Group 2: Information Disclosure - The revised regulations require issuers to submit relevant information disclosure documents through the financial bond issuance management information system to the interbank lending center, which will then forward these documents to the bond registration and custody institutions [3][4] - The changes aim to enhance the role of the interbank lending center in managing financial bond issuance information and ensuring compliance with disclosure requirements [4] Group 3: Pledged Bonds - A significant change is the removal of the previous requirement for pledged bonds to be frozen, which is expected to enhance liquidity and efficiency in the bond market [7][9] - The new regulations allow bond registration and custody institutions to provide pledge registration services without freezing the pledged bonds, enabling them to be reused or traded during the pledge period [9][10] - This adjustment is anticipated to improve the utilization of collateral and facilitate the development of a multi-tiered bond market, aligning domestic practices with international standards [9][10][11]

Group 1: Financing Environment - The financing scale of real estate companies in the first half of this year was 184.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 30% [1] - In the second quarter, financing reached 100.4 billion yuan, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 19%, but a year-on-year decrease of 25% [1] - Despite marginal improvements in financing support policies, the financing situation remains severe, especially for private real estate companies [1][6] Group 2: Domestic and International Financing - Domestic bond financing costs decreased to 2.71% in the first half of this year, down 0.2 percentage points from the entire year of 2024 [3] - In contrast, the cost of issuing overseas bonds remains high, with rates around 8.60% for the first half of 2025 [2] - The issuance of overseas bonds by real estate companies is primarily for refinancing existing debts, with high interest rates reflecting investor caution [2][3] Group 3: Debt Maturity and Repayment Pressure - In 2024, the maturity scale of real estate company bonds is expected to reach 482.9 billion yuan, while the issuance scale is only 220.9 billion yuan [7] - The third quarter of 2024 is projected to be a peak period for debt repayment, with approximately 160 billion yuan due [7] Group 4: Alternative Liquidity Solutions - Real estate companies are exploring various methods to supplement liquidity, such as asset sales and debt restructuring [8] - For instance, Vanke completed a stock sale plan raising approximately 479 million yuan, while Rongsheng Development announced asset swaps to reduce debts [8] Group 5: Industry Recovery Mechanisms - The urban real estate financing coordination mechanism has accelerated, with approved loans exceeding 670 billion yuan in 2024 [9] - The government plans to issue 440 billion yuan in special bonds to support investment and debt resolution in the real estate sector [9] - Successful debt restructuring cases among several companies provide a model for others in distress, promoting industry risk clearance [10]

证券分析师：赵婧 0755-22940745 zhaojing@guosen.com.cn S0980513080004 证券分析师：陈笑楠 021-60375421 chenxiaonan@guosen.com.cn S0980524080001 证券研究报告 | 2025年06月17日 资金观察，货币瞭望 半年末叠加到期高峰，预计6月资金利率季节性上行 投资策略 · 固定收益 2025年第六期 证券分析师：季家辉 021-61761056 jijiahui@guosen.com.cn S0980522010002 证券分析师：李智能 0755-22940456 lizn@guosen.com.cn S0980516060001 证券分析师：董德志 021-60933158 dongdz@guosen.com.cn S0980513100001 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 摘要 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 ➢海外货币市场指标跟踪：美联储6月会议继续暂停降息预期一致，美债短期利率 走势平稳； ➢国内货币市场指标跟踪——价：5月资金面继续转松，银行间和交易所回购利 率均值大多 ...

Group 1: Debt Issuance and Replacement - The issuance of replacement bonds has exceeded 1.6 trillion yuan, completing over 80% of the annual quota for replacing stock hidden debts of 2 trillion yuan [1] - Local governments have cumulatively issued over 120 billion yuan in land reserve special bonds, indicating a significant gap between actual issuance and publicly announced figures [1] Group 2: Monetary Policy - The central bank conducted a 1,193 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation with a net withdrawal of 72 billion yuan, maintaining an operation interest rate of 1.40% [2] Group 3: Regional Debt Limits - The Ministry of Finance has allocated a new government debt limit of 111 billion yuan for Guangxi in 2025, including 30.3 billion yuan for general debt and 80.7 billion yuan for special debt [3] - Guizhou Province plans to issue 33.24 billion yuan in government special bonds to support existing government investment projects, with an increase in provincial revenue budget by 3.504 billion yuan [4] Group 4: Bond Market Developments - Zhengzhou City Investment Group made its debut in the credit bond market with a 1 billion yuan issuance, featuring a dual-term structure with low interest rates [5] - The first issuance of aerospace technology bonds in the country was completed, with a scale of 300 million yuan and an interest rate of 2.28% [6] - Xuchang City Investment Group issued a 1 billion yuan short-term financing bond at an interest rate of 1.83% [7] - Yuzhou City Guoyun Capital Operating Company completed a 20 million yuan corporate bond issuance at an interest rate of 2.90% [8] - Kaifeng Development Group issued a 600 million yuan corporate bond at an interest rate of 2.73% [10] Group 5: Corporate Financing - New City Development plans to issue senior unsecured US dollar bonds, marking a significant move for private real estate companies to re-enter the overseas capital market [11] Group 6: Market Sentiment and Investment Opportunities - The market is seeing an increase in interest in "dim sum bonds" and onshore RMB bonds, with a recommendation to focus on high-yield city investment bonds, particularly those issued with SBLC or cross-border guarantees [15][16]

Core Viewpoint - Credit bond ETFs offer a higher return potential compared to interest rate bond ETFs, appealing to investors willing to accept some credit risk [2][13]. Group 1: Definition and Structure - Credit bond ETFs track a basket of credit bonds, allowing investors to hold multiple credit bonds through a single ETF [2]. - The underlying credit bond assets primarily include short-term financing bonds, corporate bonds, enterprise bonds, and local government financing bonds [2][7]. Group 2: Market Overview - There are currently 11 credit bond ETFs in the market, with a total scale exceeding 82.1 billion yuan [3]. - Among these, one product tracking short-term financing bonds has a scale of over 25.4 billion yuan, while one product tracking local government financing bonds has a scale exceeding 15 billion yuan [3][5]. Group 3: Asset Types and Characteristics - Short-term financing bonds are typically issued by large state-owned enterprises or leading private enterprises, with a maturity of no more than one year [7]. - Corporate bonds are issued by listed companies or large enterprises, with flexible funding purposes [7]. - Local government financing bonds are issued by financing platforms of local governments, commonly used for municipal infrastructure projects [7]. Group 4: ETF Product Details - There are five credit bond ETFs with underlying assets in corporate bonds, totaling over 28.5 billion yuan [8]. - The two main indices tracked by these ETFs differ in focus: one emphasizes credit ratings while the other prioritizes market liquidity [9][11]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The next discussion will focus on convertible bond ETFs, which offer more flexibility in risk and return [13].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of tariff measures on the bond market, highlighting a rapid decline in interest rates and the subsequent stabilization, while emphasizing the need to monitor external demand shocks and government debt issuance in May [1][2][3]. Group 1: Bond Market Overview - In April, following the implementation of tariff measures by the Trump administration, the stock market experienced a significant drop, leading to a rapid decline in long-term bond yields [2]. - The 10-year government bond yield remained stable around 1.65% during the latter part of April, reflecting market adjustments to external demand shocks and monetary policy expectations [2][3]. - The issuance of special government bonds has been confirmed, with net financing for government bonds in May expected to be around 623.4 billion, indicating a moderate level of financing activity [4]. Group 2: Liquidity and Monetary Policy - The liquidity gap in May is projected to be around 1500 billion, which is considered manageable, suggesting a continuation of a loose monetary environment [5]. - Despite the tariff-induced uncertainties, the central bank has not implemented significant monetary easing measures, maintaining a stance of "appropriate looseness" in monetary policy [6][7]. - The article anticipates that the central bank may prioritize a reserve requirement ratio cut in the second quarter, depending on external economic conditions [7]. Group 3: Credit Market Dynamics - In April, credit bond yields decreased, particularly in short-term bonds, with credit spreads for one-year bonds narrowing by up to 14 basis points [9]. - The article notes a shift in the yield curve, with the potential for long-term credit bonds to experience upward adjustments in yields [9][10]. - The analysis suggests that selecting 3-5 year credit bonds could yield higher returns, with estimated riding yields of 0.4% to 2% depending on the holding period [10]. Group 4: Interest Rate Trends - Recent trends indicate a decline in overnight funding rates, with the 7-day moving average of DR001 dropping to 1.65%, reflecting a 30 basis point decrease from previous highs [11]. - The article emphasizes the need for a supportive monetary environment to stimulate domestic demand, with expectations for short- to medium-term government bond yields to benefit from this liquidity [11][12]. - The current yield curve is described as relatively flat, with a higher probability of a steepening trend in the near future [12].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core View of the Report In March 2025, the leverage ratio of the inter - bank bond market increased month - on - month but was slightly lower than the historical average. The total bond custody scale of China Central Depository & Clearing Co., Ltd. (CCDC) and Shanghai Clearing House increased. Different institutions had different investment preferences for various bond types, with commercial banks significantly increasing their allocation of interest - rate bonds and broad - based funds increasing their allocation of inter - bank certificates of deposit [1][2][4]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Bank - Inter Leverage Ratio: Up Month - on - Month, Lower than the Same Period in Previous Years At the end of March, the inter - bank bond market leverage ratio was 107.03%, up 0.8 pct from 106.23% at the end of the previous month, and slightly lower than the historical average [1][12]. 3.2 Custody Data Overview In March 2025, the total bond custody scale of CCDC and Shanghai Clearing House was 166.22 trillion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 2655.6 billion yuan. CCDC's custody scale increased by 1308.9 billion yuan, and Shanghai Clearing House's increased by 1346.7 billion yuan. Treasury bonds, local government bonds, policy - bank bonds, medium - term notes, and inter - bank certificates of deposit contributed to the increase, while enterprise bonds, short - term financing bonds, and private placement notes contributed to the decrease [2][15]. 3.3 By Bond Type: Net Financing of Treasury Bonds and Inter - bank Certificates of Deposit Increased, Credit Bonds Had Net Repayment - **Interest - rate Bonds**: In March 2025, the total custody scale of major interest - rate bonds was 109.14 trillion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 1584.1 billion yuan. Commercial banks and broad - based funds were the main buyers, increasing their holdings by 814.8 billion yuan and 401.4 billion yuan respectively. For treasury bonds, commercial banks were the main buyers; for policy - bank bonds, broad - based funds were the main buyers; for local government bonds, commercial banks and broad - based funds increased their holdings [3][17][48]. - **Credit Bonds**: The total custody scale of major credit bonds was 15.54 trillion yuan, a month - on - month decrease of 1.01 billion yuan. Broad - based funds and commercial banks increased their holdings. For enterprise bonds, all institutions reduced their holdings; for medium - term notes, commercial banks were the main buyers; for short - term financing bonds, broad - based funds were the main buyers; for ultra - short - term financing bonds, multiple institutions reduced their holdings [3][29][48]. - **Inter - bank Certificates of Deposit**: The custody scale was 21.18 trillion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 1115 billion yuan. Broad - based funds were the main buyers, increasing their holdings by 1306.6 billion yuan, while commercial banks were the main sellers, reducing their holdings by 264.8 billion yuan [3][45][48]. 3.4 By Institution: Commercial Banks Significantly Increased Allocation of Interest - rate Bonds, Broad - based Funds Increased Allocation of Inter - bank Certificates of Deposit - **Commercial Banks**: The custody scale of major bonds was 80.04 trillion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 561.1 billion yuan. They increased their holdings of interest - rate bonds and credit bonds by 814.8 billion yuan and 11.1 billion yuan respectively, and reduced their holdings of inter - bank certificates of deposit by 264.8 billion yuan. They increased their allocation of treasury bonds and local government bonds in interest - rate bonds and medium - term notes in credit bonds [4][49]. - **Broad - based Funds**: The custody scale of major bonds was 35.53 trillion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 1729.7 billion yuan. They increased their holdings of interest - rate bonds, credit bonds, and inter - bank certificates of deposit by 401.4 billion yuan, 21.8 billion yuan, and 1306.6 billion yuan respectively. They increased their allocation of local government bonds, treasury bonds, and policy - bank bonds in interest - rate bonds and medium - term notes and short - term financing bonds in credit bonds [4][49]. - **Overseas Institutions**: The custody scale of major bonds was 4.20 trillion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 146.5 billion yuan. They increased their holdings of interest - rate bonds, inter - bank certificates of deposit, and credit bonds by 3.2 billion yuan, 141.1 billion yuan, and 2.2 billion yuan respectively. They mainly increased their allocation of treasury bonds in interest - rate bonds and slightly increased their allocation of medium - term notes, short - term financing bonds, and ultra - short - term financing bonds in credit bonds [4][53]. - **Insurance Institutions**: The custody scale of major bonds was 4.03 trillion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 93.5 billion yuan. They increased their holdings of interest - rate bonds and inter - bank certificates of deposit by 93.1 billion yuan and 1.3 billion yuan respectively, and reduced their holdings of credit bonds by 1 billion yuan. They mainly increased their allocation of local government bonds and treasury bonds in interest - rate bonds and slightly reduced their allocation of medium - term notes and enterprise bonds in credit bonds [4][53]. - **Securities Companies**: The custody scale of major bonds was 2.76 trillion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 118.1 billion yuan. They increased their holdings of interest - rate bonds, credit bonds, and inter - bank certificates of deposit by 88.7 billion yuan, 3.3 billion yuan, and 26.1 billion yuan respectively. They mainly increased their allocation of treasury bonds in interest - rate bonds and increased their allocation of medium - term notes in credit bonds [4][53]. - **Credit Unions**: The custody scale of major bonds was 1.89 trillion yuan, a month - on - month decrease of 14.8 billion yuan. They increased their holdings of interest - rate bonds by 21.6 billion yuan and reduced their holdings of credit bonds and inter - bank certificates of deposit by 0.63 billion yuan and 35.8 billion yuan respectively. They increased their allocation of treasury bonds, policy - bank bonds, and local government bonds in interest - rate bonds [5][54].

基金产品研究 2025Q1 债基降久期、降杠杆 2025 年 04 月 25 日 ➢ 2025Q1 债券型基金概览 2025Q1，债市主要围绕宽货币预期、均衡偏紧的资金面、"股债跷跷板"、 机构行为进行交易，走势较为跌宕，资金面压制下短端率先开启调整行情，而后 逐渐波及长端，至季末曲线熊平。 2025Q1 债基数量小幅增长、资产净值回落至 2024Q2 前水平。规模在 10 亿元以下的债基数量普遍增加，以中长债基金为主，10-50 亿元债基数量小幅波 动，50 亿元以上的基金数量环季明显下滑，尤其是 100 亿元以上基金。 从持仓情况来看，中长债纯债基持仓较多政金债，金融债（除政金债）、中票 次之，占比分别为 31%、15%、10%。短融、中票、国债持仓占比较上季度分别 增加 0.35%、0.36%、0.26%，政金债持仓占比环比回落 0.28%；短债持有较多 中票和短融，由于 2025Q1 规模继续下滑，除持仓短融规模逆势增长 1.94%之 外，持仓各类债券市值多数下滑，其中，金融债（除政金债）、存单、政金债持仓 占比分别回落 0.57%、0.56%、0.41%；混合型（一级）持仓债券市值高于混合 型（二级 ...