京东集团（9618.HK）2025 年四季报前瞻点评 四季度业绩筑底，政策利好与业务优化共促 26 年修复 glmszqdatemark 推荐 维持评级 当前价格： 113.60 港元 [Table_Author] 分析师 孔蓉 | 执业证书： S0590525110014 | | | --- | --- | | 邮箱： | kongrong@glms.com.cn | | 分析师 | 曹睿 | | 执业证书： S0590525110018 | | | 邮箱： | caorui@glms.com.cn | 相对走势 -30% -7% 17% 40% 2025/1 2025/7 2026/1 京东集团-SW 恒生指数 相关研究 1． 京东集团（9618.HK）2025 年三季报点评： Q3 营 收 超 预 期 增 长 ， 利 润 短 期 承 压 -2025/11/18 [盈利预测与财务指标 Table_Forcast] | 单位/百万人民币 | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入 | 1,158,819 | ...

Core Insights - The core focus of the article is on Oriental Selection's strategic shift towards offline retail, highlighting the challenges and opportunities associated with this transition, particularly in the context of its recent leadership changes and financial performance [1][7]. Group 1: Company Strategy - Oriental Selection is actively seeking to establish its first flagship store in Beijing, with a monthly salary range of 15,000 to 30,000 RMB for the store manager, indicating a serious commitment to its offline retail strategy [1][2]. - The flagship store will cover approximately 400 square meters and will feature a combination of fresh food, snacks, daily necessities, and a dining area, aiming for a "restaurant + retail" hybrid model [3][4]. - The company is looking for store managers with at least five years of retail experience and a background in managing hybrid business models, indicating a focus on leveraging experienced talent to build its offline operations [3][4]. Group 2: Financial Performance - For the fiscal year 2025, Oriental Selection reported total revenue of 4.4 billion RMB, a decrease of 32.7% from the previous year, with a net profit of only 620,000 RMB, down 97.5% year-on-year [8]. - The financial implications of opening physical stores include significant operational costs such as rent, which could exceed 100,000 RMB per month for a prime location, alongside high salaries for staff, creating pressure on profitability [4][6]. Group 3: Market Competition - The offline retail market is highly competitive, with established players like 7-ELEVEn and Hema already having strong supply chains and operational efficiencies, posing a challenge for Oriental Selection as it enters this space [6][9]. - Competitors are leveraging unique business models and customer engagement strategies, such as integrating online and offline sales, which Oriental Selection must consider to differentiate itself [6][9]. Group 4: Operational Challenges - Oriental Selection faces significant operational challenges due to its lack of experience in offline retail, particularly in areas such as store location selection, layout design, and customer service [9][12]. - Previous quality control issues in its product offerings have raised concerns about its ability to maintain standards in a retail environment, where product quality is critical to brand reputation [9][12]. Group 5: Strategic Recommendations - It is suggested that Oriental Selection should initially focus on pilot stores in areas with high overlap with its existing educational centers to minimize costs and competition [13]. - The company should emphasize its strengths in self-operated products and create a unique shopping experience that differentiates it from traditional supermarkets, while also enhancing its supply chain efficiency [13].

Core Insights - JD Group reported a revenue of 299.1 billion yuan for Q3 2025, marking a year-on-year growth of 14.9% [2][27] - The number of annual active users surpassed 700 million in October, indicating strong user growth and shopping frequency [2][27] - The success is attributed to JD's investment in a super supply chain, which enhances efficiency across production, distribution, and consumption [2][27] Retail Performance - Core retail business showed robust growth, with daily necessities, supermarkets, and apparel categories significantly outperforming industry averages [6][27] - Daily necessities revenue grew by 18.8%, approximately four times the industry average, while apparel revenue growth reached eight times the industry average [6][27] - JD Fashion's new branding initiative led to a 288% increase in sales for winter apparel during the 11.11 shopping festival [8][27] New Business Growth - New business segments, particularly food delivery, saw a revenue increase of 214% year-on-year, with improved profitability metrics [16][27] - The number of quality restaurants on JD's food delivery platform exceeded 2 million, with significant growth in order volume for top brands [15][27] - JD's innovative business models, such as the Seven Fresh Kitchen, achieved a three-day repurchase rate three times the industry average [16][27] Technological Advancements - JD has invested nearly 160 billion yuan in R&D since 2017, enhancing the capabilities of its supply chain [20][27] - The logistics sector has seen the implementation of advanced systems, achieving over 95% automation in logistics operations [22][27] - AI technology integration has significantly improved operational efficiency, with a fourfold increase in the usage of JD's AI models [22][27] Social Responsibility - JD has committed to employee welfare, being the first in the industry to sign formal contracts with all frontline workers and cover their social insurance [24][27] - The company has initiated various programs to support rural revitalization and public welfare, demonstrating its commitment to social responsibility [25][27] - JD's actions reflect a dual focus on creating commercial and social value through its supply chain initiatives [25][27]

Banking Sector - In September, new RMB loans amounted to 1.29 trillion yuan, which was in line with market expectations but represented a year-on-year decrease of 300 billion yuan, primarily driven by bill financing [1] - New social financing in September reached 3.53 trillion yuan, slightly exceeding market expectations, but still down 229.7 billion yuan year-on-year [1] - The M1 growth rate was 7.2%, up 1.2 percentage points month-on-month, while M2 growth was 8.4%, down 0.4 percentage points [1] - The banking sector is expected to maintain stable profitability in Q3, making it attractive for investment despite recent stock price adjustments [2] Securities Industry - It is anticipated that the profitability of listed securities firms will grow by 20% quarter-on-quarter and maintain a high year-on-year growth rate of around 50% in Q3 [3] - Brokerage revenue is expected to increase further due to a low base effect, and IPO fundraising is projected to see significant year-on-year growth [3] - The A-share securities industry index currently has a price-to-book ratio of 1.45, which is below the historical median of 1.51, indicating attractive valuation [3] E-commerce Sector (JD.com) - JD.com is expected to see revenue in Q3 meet expectations, with profits slightly exceeding prior forecasts [5] - Retail growth remains robust, although the growth rate for certain categories is impacted by high base effects from government subsidies [5] - The company is projected to narrow its losses in the food delivery segment, with improved user engagement and significant growth in user numbers [5][6] Restaurant Sector (Jiumaojiu) - Jiumaojiu's same-store sales continue to face pressure, with declines of 9.3%, 19.1%, and 14.8% for its brands in Q3 [7] - Despite negative growth, there are initial signs of recovery, particularly for the Taier brand, which has shown improvement in major cities [7][8] - The company has adjusted its store count, reducing inefficient locations, which has led to marginal improvements in operational efficiency [8]

Core Insights - JD.com has shown significant revenue growth in Q1 2025, with total revenue reaching 301.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.8%, marking the highest growth rate in nearly three years [2] - The introduction of the food delivery business has positively impacted JD.com's overall performance, with new business revenue increasing by 18.1% year-on-year to 5.75 billion yuan, reversing a previous trend of decline [4] Revenue Performance - JD.com's Q1 revenue was 301.1 billion yuan, reflecting a 15.8% year-on-year growth [2] - Retail revenue for JD.com in Q1 was 263.85 billion yuan, up 16.3% year-on-year, with electronics and home appliances growing by 17.1% and daily necessities by 14.9% [3] User Growth and Engagement - The number of active users has seen double-digit year-on-year growth for six consecutive quarters, exceeding 20% [4] - The number of users transacting with third-party merchants and the order volume also maintained double-digit year-on-year growth [4] New Business Developments - JD.com launched a 200 billion yuan initiative to support the transition of export goods to domestic sales, with over 10,000 companies already engaged in procurement discussions [4] - The food delivery business, which began in February 2025, is in the investment phase, with operating expenses rising from 1.51 billion yuan in Q1 2024 to 2.49 billion yuan in Q1 2025, leading to an increase in operating losses [4] Logistics and AI Innovations - JD Logistics reported a revenue of 46.97 billion yuan in Q1, a year-on-year increase of 11.5% [6] - The AI team at JD.com has made advancements in creating digital human models, aiming to reduce costs for businesses lacking live streaming capabilities [6] Management Commentary - The CEO of JD.com highlighted that improved consumer sentiment, combined with enhanced supply chain capabilities and user experience, has driven strong performance in Q1 [6]