Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the significance of Serbia's 250th Air Defense Brigade, which gained fame for shooting down a NATO F-117A stealth fighter during the 1999 conflict, and its current collaboration with China in acquiring advanced air defense systems, specifically the FK-3 and HQ-17AE missile systems [1][3][4]. Group 1: Historical Context - The 250th Air Defense Brigade is renowned for using the SAM-3 missile to down the F-117A, marking the first instance of a stealth aircraft being shot down by a surface-to-air missile [1][4]. - The F-117A was considered invulnerable due to its stealth technology until it was successfully targeted by the older SAM-3 system, showcasing the effectiveness of training and tactics over technological superiority [6][7]. Group 2: Current Developments - Serbia has publicly showcased its new Chinese-made FK-3 and HQ-17AE air defense systems, with officials expressing pride in these acquisitions [7][9]. - The FK-3 system has a maximum range of 100 kilometers and can intercept various aerial threats, significantly enhancing Serbia's air defense capabilities [12]. - The HQ-17AE system is designed for low-altitude defense and can engage multiple targets simultaneously, further strengthening Serbia's military capabilities [15]. Group 3: User Experience and Collaboration - The 250th Air Defense Brigade has reported high satisfaction with the performance and reliability of the Chinese missile systems, emphasizing effective collaboration with Chinese manufacturers for system adaptations [9][12]. - The introduction of these systems has improved Serbia's airspace control and defense capabilities, allowing for better protection of critical infrastructure [9][12]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The brigade's commander expressed interest in continuing to monitor advancements in Chinese military technology, indicating a commitment to integrating new systems into Serbia's defense strategy [16].

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods - **Model Name**: Guozheng Aerospace and Aviation Industry Index (CN5082.CNI) **Model Construction Idea**: The index is designed to reflect the market performance of aerospace and aviation industry companies listed on the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing Stock Exchanges [41][42] **Model Construction Process**: 1. **Sample Space**: Select A-shares and red-chip enterprises' depositary receipts that meet the following conditions: - Non-ST/*ST securities - Listed for over 1 year (for STAR Market and Beijing Stock Exchange securities) or over 6 months (for other securities) - No major violations or financial reporting issues in the past year - No abnormal price fluctuations during the observation period - Belong to the aerospace and aviation industry under Guozheng's tertiary industry classification [43] 2. **Candidate Pool**: - Calculate the average daily free-float market capitalization and average daily trading volume over the past six months for eligible securities - Exclude the bottom 10% of securities ranked by trading volume if the pool exceeds 10 securities [43] 3. **Sample Selection**: - If the candidate pool contains ≤30 securities, all are included - If the pool contains 30<N≤50 securities, select securities covering 85% of free-float market capitalization, rounded to the nearest multiple of 10 [43] - If the pool contains >50 securities, select securities covering 85% of free-float market capitalization, rounded to the nearest multiple of 10, capped at 50 securities [43] 4. **Weighting**: Free-float market capitalization weighting [43] 5. **Adjustment**: Regular adjustments occur semi-annually, with temporary adjustments for special cases like delisting or corporate actions [44] **Model Evaluation**: The index is highly focused on the aerospace and aviation sector, with a strong representation of small-cap stocks and high exposure to the defense industry [44][47] Model Backtesting Results - **Guozheng Aerospace and Aviation Industry Index**: - **Annualized Return**: 6.26% (past five years) [61][62] - **Sharpe Ratio**: 0.33 (past five years) [61][62] - **Maximum Drawdown**: -55.93% (past five years) [61][62] - **Annualized Volatility**: 34.13% (past five years) [61][62] - **Recent Performance**: 33.78% return in the past year, outperforming other broad-based indices and military-themed indices [64][66] - **Bull Market Elasticity**: Demonstrated strong performance during bull market periods, with gains of 40.56%, 50.90%, and 38.36% in specific intervals [65] Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods - **Factor Name**: "Military Exposure" **Factor Construction Idea**: Focus on stocks with high exposure to the defense industry, particularly aerospace and aviation [47][55] **Factor Construction Process**: - Select stocks with significant involvement in defense-related activities, such as aircraft manufacturing, satellite technology, and unmanned systems [47][55] - Weight stocks based on their free-float market capitalization [43][55] **Factor Evaluation**: The factor achieves high representation of military-related stocks, with 97% of the index's components belonging to the defense industry [47][55] - **Factor Name**: "Aerospace Exposure" **Factor Construction Idea**: Emphasize stocks within the aerospace and aviation sub-sector [47][60] **Factor Construction Process**: - Identify stocks classified under the aerospace and aviation sub-sector [47][60] - Weight stocks based on their free-float market capitalization [43][60] **Factor Evaluation**: The factor has a high concentration in aerospace stocks, with 51% of the index's weight allocated to this sub-sector [47][60] Factor Backtesting Results - **Military Exposure Factor**: - **Representation**: 97% of index components belong to the defense industry [47][55] - **Aerospace Exposure Factor**: - **Representation**: 51% of index weight allocated to aerospace stocks [47][60] - **Unmanned Systems Factor**: - **Representation**: Over 12% of index weight allocated to stocks involved in unmanned systems, such as drones [60]

军工行情当下如何参与？20250703 摘要 军工板块自 5 月初以来涨幅显著，位列申万一级行业第二，受益于国内 政策周期、地缘政治及安全需求上升，以及中国国际军贸地位的提升。 宏观层面，中国军费开支虽保持个位数增长，但占 GDP 比重仍有提升空 间，十四五收官之年预计订单集中交付将推动内需改善，地缘冲突加剧 全球对安全的需求。 中观层面，军工板块景气度持续改善，从上游元器件、军工电子到兵装 和航空装备均处于爬坡或底部回升状态，台股 MLCC 龙头营收同比增速 回升，海绵钛价格同比降幅收窄。 微观层面，一季报显示部分细分行业进入补库阶段，航空装备和军工电 子订单显著回升，产能加速出清迹象明显，现金流压力公司占比见顶回 落及资本开支强度指标下降。 公募基金对军工行业超低配情况明显，配置系数已回落至 2016 年以来 中枢附近水平，不拥挤，散户、融资及 ETF 资金均有明显净流入，在关 键节点上融资和 ETF 大量流入成为先行指标。 Q&A 今年以来军工板块表现如何？有哪些驱动因素？ 今年以来，军工板块表现强劲，尤其是在 5 月初的印巴空战和 6 月中的伊以冲 突期间，军工板块走出了两波凌厉行情。年初至今，军工指 ...

本文来自格隆汇专栏：兴证策略张启尧 作者：张启尧团队 6月以来，兴业证券率先基于股价位置、产业趋势、日历效应等维度，反复提示军工和科技的投资机会（详见6.2快速轮动的市场中，6月关注什么方 向？、6.8抓住6月科技的修复窗口、6.15地缘风险是否会影响科技的修复逻辑？），当前仍重点推荐，详细逻辑供参考： 军工：国内景气加速+国际市场打开 胜率看，7-8月是军工全年胜率最高的窗口，近十年相对全A胜率高达70%-80%。 | 图11、近十年各一级行业相对全 A 胜率(2015-2024年) | | --- | | 级行业 | 1月 | 2月 | 3月 | 4月 | 5月 | 6月 | 7月 | 8月 | 9月 | 10日 | 11月 | 12月 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 国防线 L | 30% | 60% | 50% | 40% | 60% | 50% | 80% | 70% | 40% | 40% | 40% | 30% | | | | | | 70% | | | | | ...

Group 1 - The defense and military industry sector has seen significant growth, with stocks like Guoke Military rising over 12% and several companies hitting the daily limit up [1] - The National Defense Military ETF (512810) experienced a 3% increase during trading, with a transaction volume exceeding 59 million yuan and a turnover rate of 9.55%, leading the market among similar ETFs [1][2] - The ETF's share price was reduced from approximately 120 yuan to around 60 yuan after a split, making it more accessible for investors [3] Group 2 - Advanced fighter jets like J-10CE and J-35 are expected to be strategic assets for China's military trade, enhancing domestic equipment research and development [3] - The military trade sector is anticipated to benefit from a global arms race and industry recovery, with a focus on military trade, military electronics, and consumable ammunition as key investment themes [3] - The National Defense Military ETF (512810) tracks the CSI Military Index and is designed to provide efficient exposure to the defense sector, combining traditional and new military capabilities [3]

Core Viewpoint - The 2025 Paris Air Show, scheduled from June 16 to June 22, will see significant participation from Chinese companies across key sectors such as special materials, engines, and complete aircraft manufacturing, which is expected to catalyze investment enthusiasm in the military industry [1] Industry Summary - The Chinese military industry is anticipated to benefit from dual drivers: the transformation of the global military development environment and endogenous growth driven by strong planning [1] - Geopolitical conflicts and trade frictions are increasing uncertainty in international relations, leading to a sustained rise in military demand and enhancing the strategic position of the military industry [1] - The military industry exhibits stronger anti-cyclicality compared to traditional industries, showcasing rigidity and stability [1] - Short-term drivers such as accelerated technological iteration, approaching key strategic nodes, and the upcoming five-year planning cycle are expected to maintain an upward trend in industry prosperity [1] Company Summary - The J-10C fighter jet has demonstrated its capabilities by shooting down three 4.5-generation Rafale jets during the India-Pakistan border conflict, garnering global attention and leading to potential foreign trade orders, including interest from the Indonesian government [2] - The overall tone for military enterprises this year aligns with achieving the established goals of the "14th Five-Year Plan," with demand recovering from the upstream sector [2] - The military industry in China is transitioning from "import dependence" to "independent innovation" and even "foreign trade export" [2] - The military ETF (512660) has gained significant investor attention, achieving historical highs in both share size and net value performance, indicating a strong market interest in the military sector amid increasing geopolitical uncertainties [2]

中航证券表示，年初以来，低空经济、商业航天、深海科技、大飞机、军事智能化等主题高度活跃，这 些大军工新域新质主题仍将会不断深化、反复演绎；同时，伴随着军工基本面有望迎来持续回暖，主题 活跃+业绩提振，将构成未来较长一段时间的二重奏，共同推动军工整体行情的再次到来。 6月17日，A股三大指数小幅调整，军工板块午后异动拉升，聚焦空天国防的航空航天ETF（159227）一 度翻红，持仓股中兵红箭、中航沈飞、国博电子、长城军工等多股异动。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） 航空航天ETF（159227）紧密跟踪国证航天指数，规模位居同指数第一。Wind数据显示，截至最新，该 指数申万一级行业中国防军工行业占比达96.2%，相较于中证军工和中证国防指数，国证航天的指数集 中度更高，在航空装备、航天装备领域的占比更高，国证航天指数的航空航天装备（包括申万航空设 备、航天装备）权重占比高达71%，高于中证军工和中证国防指数。 通用航空ETF基金（159230）跟踪国证通用航空产业指数，聚焦通用航空、低空经济产业链龙头，兼具 低空经济、国防军工和国产大飞机概念。 消息面上，第55届巴黎航展于6月16日-22日在巴黎布歇尔机场举办， ...

[Table_Date] 2025 年 06 月 08 日 [Table_Title] 歼 10C 有望引领中国军贸 [Table_Title2] 国防军工 行业评级:推荐 证券研究报告|行业点评报告 从全球角度看，歼-10CE 所在的中轻型战斗机市场大部分被美国 F-16、俄罗斯"米格"系列、瑞典 "鹰狮"和法国"阵风"系列所瓜分。对于国防经费并不充裕的广大发展中国家来说，能够执行多用途作 战任务、购置及保障费用明显低于重型机、且单价低于欧美同类中型机的歼 10CE 无疑是性价比最高的选 择。 请仔细阅读在本报告尾部的重要法律声明 [Table_Summary] 事件一：据央视新闻报道，当地时间 6 月 5 日，印尼政府正就采购中国制造的歼-10 战机进行可行性 评估。报道称，歼-10 战机在印巴冲突中的表现是印尼考虑该机型的重要因素之一。相较于西方同类战 机，歼-10 的价格更具竞争力，且技术配置符合印尼对"高性价比先进装备"的需求。采购范围可能还包 括中国制造的舰艇、护卫舰及其他武器装备。 事件二：《人民日报》近期连续两个整版，分别以《龙腾东方——歼-10 诞生记》和《长空砺剑 科研 报国——歼-10系 ...

自2005年以来，指数历史年化收益率近20%，这只ETF可一键配置。 根据SIPRI数据，中国军贸近年来成绩斐然，中国近十年(2015-2024年)的军贸出口172.54亿TIV，相较 于上一个十年(2005-2014年)的军贸出口(110.26亿TIV)增长56.48%，其中飞行器、导弹等空天装备占 比近半，成为核心增量领域。 作者 | 紫枫 编辑 | 小白 风云君每天在手机上经常会刷到一些分析俄乌冲突、巴以冲突、印巴空战等让人紧张的文章和视频。 它们不断在提醒风云君"世界并不和平。" 而且，特朗普越来越展现出"穷兵黩武"的一面。5月份，白宫将美国国防支出提升至1万亿美元以上， 同比增加约13%。 随后，他不仅披露了耗资巨大的六代机研发计划和"金穹计划"（天基导弹防御系统），并宣布将北约 国防开支目标提升至GDP的5%，德国已表态要跟上。 所以，美国正在加快军事投入，全球军备竞赛或将再次升级。 所幸的是，中国装备在这次印巴空战中表现出色，表现出强大的空中优势，让不少国人感到安心，我 们的钢铁洪流有能力在这个动荡的环境下守护好我们的安全和利益。 风云君认为，在全球地缘政治动荡的环境下，航空航天板块兼具军工装备 ...

Core Viewpoint - The military industry sector is experiencing significant investment interest, particularly in military ETFs, driven by global geopolitical conflicts and advancements in China's military trade capabilities [1][2]. Group 1: Investment Trends - Military ETF (512660) has seen a net inflow of over 750 million yuan in the past five days, with a current scale of nearly 14 billion yuan, marking a nearly 40% increase in shares this year, making it the largest in its category [1]. - The military ETF closely tracks the CSI Military Index, which includes companies in aerospace, military electronics, shipbuilding, and weaponry, reflecting the overall performance of the military industry [2]. Group 2: Military Trade Developments - China's military trade products are gaining global attention due to their comparative advantages and improved production capabilities, with a focus on performance, cost-effectiveness, and production capacity [2]. - Pakistan, a key military trade partner, has sourced 81.15% of its military imports from China over the past five years, showcasing the high performance and cost-effectiveness of Chinese military equipment during recent conflicts [2]. Group 3: Industry Outlook - The military sector is expected to see strong domestic demand growth driven by the "14th Five-Year Plan," "Centenary of the Army," and "self-reliant domestic substitution" strategies, indicating a positive industry outlook [2].