Group 1 - Thailand's Finance Minister, Pichai Chunhavan, expressed optimism about reducing tariffs on most U.S. imports to zero, aiming to negotiate before the August 1 deadline set by the U.S. [1] - Thailand submitted a revised proposal to the U.S. to increase bilateral trade by 70% over five years and reduce a trade surplus of $46 billion, including expanding market access for U.S. agricultural and industrial products [1] - The proposal includes lowering import tariffs on 90% of U.S. products, which is seen as a win-win for both Thailand and the U.S. [1] Group 2 - The push for lower tariffs is crucial for protecting Thailand's trade-dependent economy from further downside risks, especially amid high household debt and weak domestic consumption [2] - Officials estimate that maintaining a 36% tariff could reduce Thailand's GDP by at least one percentage point this year [2] - Investor concerns are heightened due to political instability following the suspension of Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-o-cha over ethical violations related to a border dispute with Cambodia [2]

Core Points - The article discusses the potential outcomes of the upcoming US-EU trade negotiations, highlighting four possible scenarios that could unfold before the July 9 deadline [1][3][4] - The EU has shown a willingness to accept a 10% tariff on various goods, while seeking commitments from the US to lower tariffs in key sectors such as pharmaceuticals, alcohol, semiconductors, and commercial aircraft [1][3] - The EU has made it clear that digital legislation will not be part of the trade negotiations, maintaining its sovereignty over regulatory decisions [5][6] Group 1: Potential Scenarios - Four potential scenarios outlined by EU officials include: reaching an acceptable but asymmetric agreement, the US proposing an unacceptable agreement, extending the deadline for negotiations, or the Trump administration exiting the talks and raising tariffs [1][3] - The most likely scenario involves the EU retaliating against the US if the Trump administration withdraws from negotiations and increases tariffs [4] Group 2: Tariff Discussions - The EU is pushing for the US to significantly reduce tariffs on automobiles and parts, which are currently at 25%, and on steel and aluminum products, which are at 50% [3][4] - The EU's acceptance of a 10% tariff marks a shift from its initial stance against such a rate, indicating a potential compromise in negotiations [3] Group 3: Digital Legislation - The EU has explicitly stated that its digital market and service laws will not be included in the trade talks, emphasizing its commitment to existing regulations [5][6] - The EU's digital market law aims to regulate major tech companies, predominantly US firms, and has already resulted in significant fines for companies like Apple and Meta [5][6] Group 4: Trade Data and Implications - The EU estimates that US tariffs currently cover approximately €380 billion worth of products, which constitutes about 70% of its total exports to the US [7] - In 2024, the EU exported $52.8 billion worth of automobiles and parts to the US, making it the largest export destination for these products [7]

Core Viewpoint - The EU is preparing significant countermeasures against the US, including tariffs on over $100 billion worth of American goods, as trade negotiations intensify and the deadline approaches [1][3]. Group 1: Negotiation Dynamics - The EU believes that trade negotiations with the US may extend beyond the July 9 deadline, with only a principle agreement likely to be reached by then [1][2]. - EU officials have engaged in frequent discussions with US counterparts, focusing on key sectors such as steel, aluminum, automotive, pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, and civil aviation [2]. - Despite a seemingly positive negotiation atmosphere, the EU perceives the US demands as unilateral and potentially skewed in favor of Washington [2]. Group 2: Countermeasures Prepared by the EU - The EU has prepared a two-tiered response plan, with the first tier targeting $210 billion worth of US goods, including politically sensitive products like soybeans and poultry [4]. - The second tier is more aggressive, aimed at $950 billion worth of US products, specifically targeting Boeing aircraft, American-made cars, and bourbon whiskey [4]. - The EU estimates that current US tariffs affect approximately €380 billion ($434 billion) of EU exports to the US, representing about 70% of total EU exports to the US [3]. Group 3: EU's Stance on Tariffs - The EU Commission has expressed readiness to defend its interests and protect its workers, consumers, and industries, while also indicating a preference for reducing tariffs rather than increasing them [6].

Group 1 - The EU has issued a warning that if a mutually acceptable solution is not reached, countermeasures will take effect by July 14 at the latest [1][8] - The EU's countermeasures include previously approved but suspended tariffs on US goods worth €21 billion in response to Trump's steel and aluminum measures [8] - A second part of the EU's response involves preparing additional tariffs on US products worth €95 billion, targeting industrial goods such as Boeing aircraft and American-made cars [8] Group 2 - Recent court rulings have determined that the Trump administration's use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to impose tariffs is overreaching and unconstitutional [4][5] - The US International Trade Court ruled that trade balance and fentanyl import issues do not constitute an emergency under IEEPA, thus invalidating the tariffs [4] - The legal disputes surrounding IEEPA may escalate to the US Supreme Court, potentially affecting the negotiation positions of various trade partners [2][6] Group 3 - The Hinrich Foundation has reported that recent indecisive trade policy decisions in Washington are unlikely to be resolved in the short term, leading to long-term economic uncertainty for governments and businesses [7] - The EU is actively engaging in negotiations with the US, with meetings scheduled between EU Trade Commissioner and US Trade Representative [7][9] - There is a recognition that while the Trump administration aims to balance the trade deficit with the EU, breakthroughs may only occur in agricultural products due to price competitiveness [9]

Core Points - The article discusses the recent developments in US-EU trade negotiations, highlighting the postponement of a 50% tariff on EU goods by President Trump, which has led to renewed talks between the two parties [1][2] - The EU is committed to accelerating trade negotiations to avoid a transatlantic trade war, with both sides expressing a desire to maintain close communication [1][2] - Despite the extension of the negotiation deadline, significant differences remain between the US and EU, complicating the path to a mutually agreeable solution [3] Trade Negotiations - The EU has agreed to expedite trade talks following Trump's decision to delay the imposition of tariffs from June 1 to July 9 [2] - EU Trade Commissioner Maros Sefcovic emphasized the importance of constructive dialogue and maintaining close contact with US officials [1][2] - The EU's proposal to the US, which included joint tariff reductions and increased market access for US agricultural products, was rejected [3] Market Reaction - The threat of a 50% tariff was projected to impact $321 billion worth of US-EU trade, potentially reducing US GDP by nearly 0.6% and increasing prices by over 0.3% [4] - Following the news of the extended negotiation period, investor sentiment improved, leading to a rise in US stock futures and European markets [4][5] EU's Preparedness - The EU has prepared a countermeasure list targeting $239 billion worth of US goods in response to US tariffs, with a focus on politically sensitive products [12] - Additional tariffs on $950 billion worth of US products are also being considered, including items like Boeing aircraft and American-made cars [12] - German Economic Minister Katherina Reiche called for calm and emphasized the need to find common ground within the next six weeks [12]