证券研究报告|行业研究周报 [Table_Date] 2025 年 08 月 25 日 猪肉供过于求局面加剧，猪价继续下跌 [Table_Title2] 农林牧渔行业周报第 26 期 [Table_Summary] 本周观点: 种植产业链：8 月 19 日，农业农村部种植业管理司会同全国农 业技术推广服务中心在广西南宁召开全国秋粮作物中后期重大 病虫害防控现场会，组织主产省份观摩重大病虫害绿色防控作 业现场，邀请行业专家重点讲解水稻和玉米病虫害发生规律及 绿色防控技术，动员安排秋粮作物重大病虫害防控工作。会议 指出，秋粮产量占全年粮食产量的四分之三，要完成今年粮食 产量 1.4 万亿斤左右的目标任务，关键看秋粮。把好秋粮病虫 害防控关，对夺取全年粮食丰收意义重大。当前，受降雨偏多 等不利因素影响，秋粮重大病虫害发生重于上年，监测防控任 务仍较为艰巨。8—9 月份是秋粮产量形成的关键时期，也是病 虫害多发重发期。各地要高度重视，突出重点、分类指导、科 学防控，抓住主要作物、重点区域、重大病虫和关键环节，全 力以赴推进"虫口夺粮"保秋粮丰收行动。在粮食安全背景 下，转基因技术在提升单产方面具有革命性作用，我们判断 ...

2003年，霞浦渔民开始少量养殖海参，引进山东长岛刺参小苗，在室内水泥池和室外土池开始投附着基 及海区吊笼养殖，打破了南方不能养殖海参的历史。 20年时间，霞浦海参养殖业从无到有，产业规模不断扩大，成为当地经济与民生的双支柱产业，同时也 是我国"北参南养"的主产区、拉缸盐海参集散中心和南方最大的仿刺参交易中心。 通过这一创新有效填补了海参产业链下游融资空白，使养殖户在生产环节和销售环节都能获得适配性信 贷支持，户均贷款额度从原来的30万元增加到120万元。同时，也有力稳住了海参市场价格，助力养殖 户增收增利。 "在海参集中上市时，很多养殖户在卖海参会出现亏损的情况下，会申请海参仓单质押贷款，把手里的 海参变成周转资金。中秋节左右，海参进入销售旺季，再将仓储的海参卖掉。"林云文表示，养殖户在 获得仓单质押贷款支持后，售卖期从原来的3到5天延长至半年以上，养殖户可以根据市场行情选择出售 时机，议价能力明显增强，在相对稳定向好的年份，养殖户平均利润能够维持在30%以上。 模式升级：提升产业链生命力和竞争力 走进霞浦野湾水产品有限公司冷库，零下十八度的温度让记者倒吸一口气。这里是霞浦农信联社、兴业 银行等银行机构在办 ...

Group 1: Agricultural Production - The first industry added value in the province increased by 4.3% year-on-year, surpassing the national average by 0.6% [1] - The province has implemented 16 policies to support grain and oil production, with a total subsidy of 8.4 billion yuan, enhancing local and farmer engagement in grain production [2] - The total grain planting area reached 53.863 million acres, an increase of over 200,000 acres compared to the previous year, exceeding national targets [2] Group 2: Technological Advancements - The province organized 33,000 new operating entities to demonstrate high-yield technology applications and updated 26,000 agricultural machines, with 40% being high-end intelligent machinery [3] Group 3: Diversification of Agricultural Products - The province has increased support for land, finance, and fiscal policies, leading to the construction and renovation of 45,000 acres of new greenhouses and cold storage, a 10% increase year-on-year [4] - The province is focusing on developing ten advantageous specialty industries, including sea cucumbers and strawberries, with a 6.3% year-on-year increase in the added value of the agricultural and sideline food processing industry [6] Group 4: Rural Development and Infrastructure - The province is advancing rural environmental improvement initiatives, with a coverage rate of 60% for integrated urban and rural sanitation [7] - A total investment of 47.17 billion yuan has been allocated for 64 types of rural revitalization projects, focusing on infrastructure such as roads and water supply [7]

Core Viewpoint - The private domain seafood business is a lucrative opportunity, emphasizing the importance of customer retention and high repurchase rates rather than just the product category [3][6][7]. Group 1: Business Model - The seafood business model relies on high customer repurchase rates, with a focus on maintaining long-term relationships with customers [6][7]. - A successful case involves a student generating approximately 50 million yuan in annual sales through selling seafood and other products in their social circle [8]. - The strategy includes dividing the social media approach into two parts: daily sales of low-margin products to increase customer frequency and the monthly promotion of high-margin products [9]. Group 2: Marketing Strategy - The marketing strategy involves a pre-sale period of one month, with two weeks dedicated to preheating interest and one week for actual sales [11][12]. - The pre-sale phase is crucial for identifying potential customers, as engagement during this period leads to a higher conversion rate during the actual sale [14][15]. - The social media posts are structured to gradually increase in frequency, with specific targets for engagement and customer inquiries [12][19]. Group 3: Performance Metrics - Key performance indicators for social media marketing include interaction metrics (likes and comments) and inquiry metrics (number of interested customers) [19][20]. - A conversion rate of 50% is noted, where 100 inquiries lead to 50 sales, highlighting the effectiveness of the social media strategy [20]. - The role of the social media manager is critical, as they must analyze which posts generate the most inquiries and refine their approach accordingly [21][22].

Core Insights - The establishment of the Shandong Sea Cucumber Industry Alliance aims to promote high-quality development in the sea cucumber industry, with participation from key stakeholders including JD Supermarket [1][3] - JD Supermarket's fresh sea cucumber division presented insights on consumer behavior and industry trends, emphasizing the importance of market understanding for strategic decision-making [1][3] Company Insights - JD Supermarket has developed a comprehensive retail ecosystem encompassing nine business sectors, including retail, technology, logistics, and health, with a structured store matrix of flagship, specialty, and dedicated stores [3] - The company has successfully attracted several high-quality Shandong sea cucumber brands to its platform, enhancing brand influence through digital empowerment [3] Consumer Insights - A survey revealed that health and nutrition are the primary reasons consumers purchase sea cucumbers, with gift-giving also being a significant factor [4] - Consumers prioritize product quality, taste, and safety, indicating that these attributes will be critical competitive points in the future sea cucumber market [4] Industry Trends - The sea cucumber market is diversifying, with strong potential in various product categories such as traditional dried sea cucumbers, ready-to-eat options, and fresh stewed varieties [5] - Yantai, as a major sea cucumber production area, possesses a robust industrial foundation and the largest sea cucumber distribution market in the country, providing significant supply chain advantages [5] - However, the online presence of Shandong sea cucumber merchants is limited, indicating room for growth in e-commerce and brand influence [5][6] Strategic Initiatives - JD plans to leverage its platform advantages, including high user concentration and quality, to support Shandong sea cucumber brands in achieving online breakthroughs [6] - The company will implement targeted resource allocation strategies, such as one-on-one category sales services and subsidy support, to facilitate the digital, brand, and premium transformation of the industry [6]

Group 1: Core Insights - The conference in Dongying, Shandong Province, emphasized the importance of developing a high-quality marine economy and outlined four key tasks to accelerate the construction of a marine strong city [1][2] - The marine economy is projected to see significant growth, with the national marine GDP expected to exceed 10 trillion yuan in 2024, and Shandong's marine GDP reaching 1.81 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5.9% [2][3] - Dongying aims to enhance its ecological protection efforts while developing its marine economy, with successful initiatives like the creation of the Yellow River Estuary National Park [2][3] Group 2: Marine Economy Development - Major infrastructure projects, including a 10,000-ton channel and multiple large-scale terminals, are being developed to support Dongying's goal of becoming a deep-water port [3][4] - The marine chemical industry in Dongying has established a complete industrial chain, contributing to a marine GDP of over 120 billion yuan in 2024, with a growth rate of 7.1%, the highest in Shandong Province [3][4] - The conference highlighted the need to focus on ecological sustainability, traditional industry upgrades, and the development of new growth points in the marine economy [4][5] Group 3: Focus on Marine Food Industry - Dongying has a strong foundation for marine food industry development, with significant achievements in aquaculture, processing, and brand building [5][6] - The Yellow River Estuary crab has become a flagship product, with an annual production of 7,000 tons and a market value of 1 billion yuan, alongside other successful seafood products [5][6] - Innovative aquaculture practices, such as smart farming and water recycling technologies, are being implemented to enhance productivity and sustainability in the marine food sector [6][7] Group 4: Future Directions - Dongying plans to increase support for the marine food industry, focusing on integrating the entire supply chain and enhancing brand recognition [7] - The city aims to leverage technology to drive the marine food sector towards intelligence, sustainability, and high-end development, contributing to the overall marine economy [7]

Core Insights - The extended 618 shopping festival failed to ignite consumer enthusiasm, leading to a quieter event than in previous years [3] - Consumers expressed frustration over price manipulation tactics, such as raising prices before discounts and complicated promotional rules [3][4] - The traditional promotional model is under pressure, prompting some merchants to adopt alternative strategies to survive [4][5] Group 1: Traditional Promotions and Consumer Sentiment - The 618 event lasted 37 days, spanning multiple holidays, but did not effectively engage consumers [2] - Many consumers reported negative experiences, including inflated prices and complicated discount structures [3][4] - Despite efforts to simplify rules, the core issues of price wars and low profit margins for small businesses remain [4][5] Group 2: Alternative Strategies by Merchants - Some merchants, like "奶思加nice家居," opted to pause participation in traditional promotions to avoid losses from price wars [4][5] - The rising cost of advertising and the need for competitive pricing create a challenging environment for small businesses [4][5] - Merchants are exploring new avenues, such as the "友好市集" on Xiaohongshu, which emphasizes quality and trust over aggressive discounting [6][12] Group 3: The "友好市集" Initiative - The "友好市集" aims to create a more trustworthy shopping environment by setting high standards for participating merchants [6][8] - This initiative has shown promising results for some merchants, leading to increased sales and reduced return rates [11][25] - The platform's focus on community-driven commerce aligns with consumer preferences for quality and genuine engagement [40][41] Group 4: Future Implications for E-commerce - The success of the "友好市集" could signal a shift in e-commerce dynamics, moving away from price-centric competition to value-driven transactions [37][40] - The initiative's design encourages a more natural integration of shopping into community interactions, appealing to value-sensitive consumers [40][41] - Ongoing adjustments to the program, such as coupon reductions, will be critical in assessing its long-term viability [39][41]

Core Points - The Guangdong Provincial Agricultural Technology Promotion Center has initiated a project called "Million Seedlings" to support the development of modern marine ranching in the region [7][15]. - A significant event was held on June 28, where 534.4 million fish seedlings, including species like golden pompano and blue round pompano, were donated to local marine ranching entities and typical village aquaculture operators [11][10]. Industry Summary - The "Million Seedlings" initiative is part of a broader effort to enhance the quality and variety of marine aquaculture in Guangdong, aiming to upgrade the fishing industry and promote rural revitalization [15][17]. - The project has successfully cultivated a series of high-quality seawater aquaculture varieties, laying a solid foundation for the development of marine ranches [9][14]. - The initiative also aims to break down barriers between research and industry, facilitating the rapid transformation of research outcomes into practical applications for aquaculture [13][14]. Company Summary - The project involves collaboration between research teams and various enterprises, with agreements signed for the transfer of seedlings to ensure effective distribution and utilization [10][12]. - The Guangdong Provincial Agricultural Technology Promotion Center is committed to continuing its support for marine ranching development by allocating 30% of the seedlings produced to coastal cities and typical village operators [12][13].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of implementing comprehensive strategies for rural revitalization and agricultural development in the province, guided by Xi Jinping's thoughts and the resolutions from the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China [1] Group 1: Agricultural Production and Supply - Ensure stable production and supply of key agricultural products, with grain planting area maintained at over 53.3 million acres and grain output around 50 billion pounds [2] - Stabilize livestock production, maintaining a breeding sow population of over 1.3 million heads and supporting the development of meat and dairy industries [2] - Strengthen farmland protection and construction, ensuring dynamic balance in annual farmland area and promoting high-standard farmland construction of 4.76 million acres [3] Group 2: Agricultural Technology and Disaster Resilience - Enhance agricultural technology and equipment levels, promoting biotechnology and smart agriculture [4] - Improve disaster prevention and reduction capabilities, including strengthening meteorological services and flood control projects [4] Group 3: Food Security and Trade - Implement food production support policies, including minimum purchase prices for rice and subsidies for land fertility protection [5] - Establish a diversified food supply system, expanding modern facility agriculture and supporting deep-sea fisheries [6] Group 4: Poverty Alleviation and Employment - Ensure no large-scale return to poverty, with stable employment for over 156,000 individuals from impoverished backgrounds [8] - Maintain overall stability in support policies and funding for rural revitalization, with at least 60% of funds directed towards industrial development [8] Group 5: Rural Infrastructure and Public Services - Advance rural infrastructure construction, including building 300 rural water supply projects and improving rural road conditions [13] - Enhance basic public service levels in rural areas, ensuring 90% of counties have established integrated medical service systems [14] Group 6: Environmental Protection and Governance - Strengthen rural ecological environment construction, including adding 14,000 garbage collection facilities and improving rural sewage treatment [15] - Build strong rural grassroots party organizations to enhance governance effectiveness and address corruption [16] Group 7: Talent Development and Investment - Cultivate rural talent through various training programs, aiming to train over 10,000 practical talents [24] - Improve the multi-source investment mechanism for rural revitalization, encouraging financial institutions to increase funding for agricultural sectors [27]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the significant improvements in the sea cucumber farming industry in Xiapu County, Fujian Province, due to recent regulatory reforms and anti-corruption measures, leading to a more sustainable and profitable environment for farmers [1][2]. Group 1: Industry Changes - The chaotic state of sea cucumber farming in Xiapu County was characterized by over-planning and illegal occupation of public sea areas, resulting in increased farming density, deteriorating water quality, and frequent diseases [1]. - Recent comprehensive rectification actions have been implemented, including the cleanup of illegal net cages and the use of drone surveillance for regulatory oversight, which has led to a more organized farming environment [1][2]. Group 2: Economic Impact - The sea cucumber output value in Xiapu reached 6.3 billion yuan last year, establishing it as a national geographical indication brand [2]. - The survival rate of sea cucumbers has improved by 30% due to the enhanced farming conditions and regulatory clarity [2].