机构：中金公司 研究员：林思婕/赖晟炜 公司近况 风险 我们估计公司2H25 翻台同比基本持平，成本费用优化好于预期，整体盈利仍有韧性。此外建议关注新 品牌潜力。 翻台不及预期；开店低于预期或关店超预期；新品牌发展受阻。 评论 优化新品牌发展策略，关注后续潜力。公司不断优化新品牌发展策略，下半年在原"自下而上"提报基础 上新增总部管理人员"自上而下"提报方式（已开业如鮨寿司等），且公司计划1Q26系统评估新品牌情 况并确定后续各品牌发展方向，我们认为有望提升新品牌发展效率和优化资源配置。目前已有一定体量 的新品牌包括焰请烤肉铺子（预计25 年新开80-90 家）、举高高自助小火锅（截至10 月底在二三线城 市已布局20-30 家门店）等。此外公司对主品牌开店仍相对谨慎，预计维持同比中单位数百分比开店增 速（我们估计7-11 月主品牌新开43 家、关闭42 家）。 盈利预测与估值 考虑成本费用优化超预期，上调25/26 年归母净利润6%/7%至40.1 亿元和47.1 亿元。当前股价对应25/26 年P/E 19 倍/16倍。维持跑赢行业评级。上调目标价6%至17 港元，对应25/26年P/E 22 倍/18 ...

Core Viewpoint - Recent news indicates that Luckin Coffee's major shareholder, Dazhong Capital, is considering a bid for Costa Coffee, which is reportedly up for sale by Coca-Cola, with discussions still in preliminary stages [1][2] Group 1: Company Developments - Luckin Coffee has successfully turned around its business, surpassing Starbucks to become the largest coffee company in China in 2023, following a period of losses and significant compensation [1] - In Q3 2023, Luckin Coffee reported total net revenue of 15.287 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 50.2%, with a GAAP operating profit of 1.777 billion yuan and an operating profit margin of 11.6% [1] - The CEO of Luckin Coffee, Guo Jinyi, stated there is no clear timetable for the company's return to the main board for listing [2] Group 2: Industry Trends - The coffee and fast-food sectors are experiencing a wave of mergers and acquisitions, with significant investments such as CPE Yuanfeng's $350 million injection into Burger King China, aiming to expand its stores from 1,250 to over 4,000 by 2035 [1][2] - Costa Coffee currently has 341 stores in China, but its expansion has been slow due to a conservative strategy, leading to a perception of high prices among consumers [2] - The current M&A landscape in the restaurant industry shows three notable trends: controlling acquisitions becoming mainstream, increasingly complex transaction structures, and a diverse range of acquisition entities including private equity and industry capital [3]

Core Insights - Major restaurant chains are increasingly focusing on smaller business models, diversifying their offerings beyond traditional large-scale operations [1][3][5] - The trend of "miniaturization" in the restaurant industry is gaining momentum, with companies like Haidilao and MoMo exploring niche markets [1][19] Group 1: Industry Trends - Haidilao has launched several new brands targeting smaller segments, including "SHUA BAKERY" and "小嗨爱炸hiburger," indicating a strategic shift towards smaller business models [1][6][19] - Other companies, such as Xibei and MoMo, are also experimenting with smaller store formats and focused product offerings, reflecting a broader industry trend [3][10][14] - The traditional emphasis on large-scale operations is being challenged by more agile and precise "small" models, which are seen as a new competitive advantage [5][19] Group 2: Business Strategies - The "small business" approach allows for reduced operational costs and increased efficiency, as seen in Haidilao's "举高高自助小火锅," which has achieved high table turnover rates [23][24] - Companies are focusing on fewer products to strengthen brand identity and consumer recognition, exemplified by MoMo's "软虎虎" brand, which centers on a single product [25][27] - The branding strategy is shifting towards creating relatable and youthful identities, making it easier for consumers to connect with new sub-brands [29][31] Group 3: Competitive Landscape - The move towards smaller business models is not just a trend but a strategic necessity for companies to explore new markets and build competitive barriers [34][35] - Companies are transitioning from being "super brands" to creating a "brand fleet," allowing for diversified offerings and shared resources across different brands [36][38] - The ability to test new concepts with lower investment risks is a significant advantage, enabling companies to innovate while maintaining their core business [39][40]

Core Insights - Haidilao is actively expanding its brand portfolio and experimenting with new restaurant concepts to adapt to changing consumer preferences and market conditions [2][8][10] Group 1: Brand Expansion and Strategy - Haidilao has launched the "Red Pomegranate Plan," which encourages employees to develop new restaurant brands through internal entrepreneurship and acquisitions [8][10] - The brand "Jugaogao," acquired from former Haidilao employees, offers a self-service hot pot experience at a significantly lower price point of 59.9 yuan per person, appealing to cost-conscious consumers [3][4] - The rapid expansion of Jugaogao has resulted in over 50 locations across nine provinces within six months, with high demand leading to long wait times [5][10] Group 2: Market Position and Consumer Response - Despite the initial success, there are concerns regarding service quality and operational issues at new locations, with some consumers reporting inconsistent food quality and slow service [7][10] - The overall dining market is experiencing a downturn, with average consumer spending in the restaurant sector declining, which poses challenges for Haidilao's growth strategy [11][12] Group 3: Financial Performance and Challenges - Haidilao's aggressive expansion strategy has led to significant financial losses in the past, prompting a reevaluation of its growth approach [12][13] - The company is now focusing on a dual strategy: expanding into new consumer segments while also introducing high-end dining options to enhance brand value [11][13] - Despite the increase in brand numbers and store count, the new brands have yet to contribute significantly to overall revenue, indicating potential challenges in achieving sustainable growth [10][13]

Core Insights - Haidilao is actively expanding its brand portfolio and experimenting with new restaurant concepts to adapt to changing consumer preferences and market conditions [3][9][12] Group 1: Brand Expansion and Strategy - Haidilao has launched the "Red Pomegranate Plan" to encourage internal entrepreneurship and develop new restaurant brands across various price segments [9][10] - The brand "Jugaogao," acquired from former Haidilao employees, offers a self-service hot pot experience at a significantly lower price point of 59.9 yuan per person, attracting high customer traffic [4][5][11] - The company has rapidly expanded "Jugaogao" to over 50 locations within six months, indicating a strong market demand for affordable dining options [6][11] Group 2: Market Position and Consumer Response - Despite the initial success of new brands, there are concerns about service quality and operational issues, with some consumers reporting inconsistent food quality and slow service [8][11][14] - The overall dining market is experiencing a downturn, with average consumer spending in the restaurant sector declining, which poses challenges for Haidilao's growth strategy [12][13] Group 3: Financial Performance and Challenges - Haidilao's aggressive expansion strategy has led to significant financial losses in the past, prompting a reevaluation of its growth approach [13][14] - The company's market valuation has fluctuated significantly since its IPO, reflecting a shift from high-growth expectations to a focus on sustainable profitability [13][14] - The new brands launched under the "Red Pomegranate Plan" have yet to contribute significantly to overall revenue, highlighting the challenges of scaling new concepts effectively [11][14]

Core Insights - Haidilao is successfully replicating its next "Haidilao" with the launch of "Jugaogao Self-Service Hotpot," which has quickly become a phenomenon in the market [2][13][19] Company Overview - Haidilao's new brand "Jugaogao" has expanded to over 50 locations across 9 provinces within six months, demonstrating a rapid growth trajectory [2][14] - The brand's first store in Wuhan achieved a remarkable 11 rounds of table turnover, while the first store in Xi'an saw over 4,000 tables queued [2][5] Market Dynamics - The self-service hotpot segment is gaining traction, with the market for small hotpot restaurants exceeding 56,000 locations and a market size nearing 100 billion, growing by 30% year-on-year [16] - Jugaogao's pricing strategy at approximately 60 yuan per person positions it well within the competitive landscape, appealing to a broader consumer base [16][10] Innovation and Strategy - The launch of Jugaogao is part of Haidilao's broader "Pomegranate Plan," aimed at diversifying its offerings and exploring new business models [13][18] - Jugaogao's unique product offerings and service enhancements, such as timely clearing of empty plates and customer care, differentiate it from traditional self-service hotpot experiences [10][12] Competitive Advantage - Jugaogao's rapid expansion and ability to replicate its business model across regions highlight its potential as a significant growth driver for Haidilao [14][15] - The brand's focus on high-quality ingredients and innovative menu items has redefined customer expectations in the self-service hotpot category [9][12] Future Outlook - The success of Jugaogao in Xi'an is seen as a testament to the city's potential as a culinary hub and a fertile ground for Haidilao's expansion [4][20] - Jugaogao is positioned to become a key player in Haidilao's portfolio, contributing to the company's second growth curve and opening new revenue streams [13][17]

Core Insights - Haidilao is successfully replicating its next "Haidilao" with the launch of "Jugaogao Self-Service Hotpot," which has quickly become a phenomenon in the market [4][5][29] - The new brand has expanded to over 50 locations across 9 provinces in less than six months, demonstrating strong market demand and operational efficiency [4][33] - The acquisition of Jugaogao marks a significant step in Haidilao's diversification strategy and internal entrepreneurship transformation [4][5] Brand Development - Jugaogao's positioning at approximately 60 yuan per person for self-service hotpot caters to a price-sensitive market, allowing Haidilao to tap into a new customer base [4][5][39] - The brand's rapid growth is attributed to its innovative approach and the integration of a mature team, which enhances Haidilao's multi-brand operational capabilities [5][29] Market Dynamics - The self-service hotpot segment is experiencing a surge in popularity, with Jugaogao capitalizing on this trend by offering high-quality ingredients and a unique dining experience [15][18] - The overall market for small hotpot restaurants has seen significant growth, with over 56,000 locations nationwide and a market size nearing 100 billion yuan, reflecting a 30% year-on-year increase [36][39] Competitive Advantage - Jugaogao's business model combines competitive pricing with superior service, creating a unique market position that avoids the pitfalls of low-end price wars [23][39] - The brand's ability to rapidly iterate and innovate its offerings, such as seasonal products and enhanced customer experiences, establishes a deep competitive moat [28][40] Strategic Implications - Jugaogao represents Haidilao's second growth curve, providing a scalable and replicable business model that can drive future revenue growth [29][31] - The success of Jugaogao in Xi'an highlights the city's potential as a key market for restaurant expansion, reinforcing Haidilao's strategic positioning in the industry [10][40]

Core Insights - The Ganzhou Ocean Future Plaza has officially upgraded its image and services, aiming to enhance regional consumption and support urban economic development [1][12] Group 1: Upgrade and Features - The plaza features a new facade, optimized parking, and improved internal environment, focusing on four thematic areas: micro-vacation center, children's fun park, trendy gathering place, and taste experience area [3][10] - The commercial space spans approximately 120,000 square meters across seven floors, with a focus on children's entertainment, quality brands, and food gathering [5][12] Group 2: Brand and Store Introduction - By 2025, the plaza has introduced 14 regional first stores and one city-level first store, enhancing its brand appeal [5] - New stores from brands like Haidilao's "Jugaogao" self-service hot pot, Bosideng, and Kidswant are set to open during the National Day holiday, providing diverse shopping options [5][10] Group 3: Smart Operations and Membership - The plaza has undergone a comprehensive digital system upgrade, optimizing the membership rights system to create a more intelligent and convenient shopping environment [7][8] - Existing membership benefits will be extended and enhanced, improving service standards for a better customer experience [7][8] Group 4: Economic Activation - The plaza's upgrade aims to invigorate local consumption through initiatives like "first store economy," "festival economy," and "night economy" [10] - Upcoming events during the National Day holiday, including the first exhibition of Capybara and themed activities, are expected to attract significant foot traffic [10][12] Group 5: Company Background - Ocean Commercial, a professional brand under Ocean Group, has managed over 5.6 million square meters of commercial space across more than 27 cities, implementing advanced commercial operation concepts in regional markets [12][13] - The upgrade of Ganzhou Ocean Future Plaza represents a significant practice of introducing first-tier city commercial operation strategies and quality resources into regional markets [12]

Core Insights - Haidilao, with an annual revenue exceeding 42.7 billion, has launched a new budget hotpot brand called "Jugaogao," which was acquired from former employees [1][4] - The introduction of "Jugaogao" aligns with the trend of consumers seeking high cost-performance in dining, indicating a strategic shift in Haidilao's approach to brand expansion [1][4] - The "Red Pomegranate Plan," aimed at fostering entrepreneurship within and outside the company, has been optimized to include acquisitions as a means to expand the brand matrix [1][4] Company Strategy - The new brand "Jugaogao" offers a self-service hotpot experience at an average cost of approximately 60 yuan per person, significantly lower than Haidilao's nearly 100 yuan pricing [4][10] - "Jugaogao" features a unique dining setup with individual pots and a wide variety of food options, including pizza and fried chicken, differentiating it from Haidilao's traditional large-table format [4][10] - The acquisition of "Jugaogao" is seen as a response to consumer demand for better value, with the brand reportedly showing stable revenue and good profit margins [4][12] Market Context - The overall dining market in China is experiencing a decline in per capita spending, with the average dropping from 86.7 yuan in 2022 to 77.4 yuan in 2024 for hotpot [12] - Haidilao's other brands generated 597 million yuan in revenue in the first half of the year, accounting for only 2.9% of total revenue, indicating that new brands have yet to significantly impact overall performance [10][12] - The competitive landscape is intensifying, with consumers increasingly favoring brands that offer high cost-performance, which poses challenges for Haidilao's traditional dining model [12][13] Acquisition Insights - The acquisition of "Jugaogao" marks Haidilao's return to a strategy of diversification through mergers and acquisitions after several years of focusing on internal brand development [9][12] - The operational integration of acquired brands presents challenges, including team management and resource allocation, which will be critical for maximizing the success of the acquisition [12][13] - Industry experts suggest that acquiring established brands can provide quicker market entry and validation compared to internal incubation, which often involves higher costs and longer timelines [12]

Group 1 - The small hot pot market is experiencing a resurgence, with Haidilao's sub-brand "Jugaogao" achieving a record of "thousand tables per day" in Wuhan and planning to open over 30 new stores [1][2] - The market size of China's small hot pot is expected to approach 65 billion yuan by 2025, with a 3.26% year-on-year increase in the number of related enterprises, reaching 22,200 as of September 8 this year [1][2] - Major brands are accelerating their market presence, with Haidilao's "Jugaogao" utilizing a self-service model and a competitive price point of 59.9 yuan per person, leveraging its mature supply chain for cost advantages [1][2] Group 2 - Yang Guofu, primarily known for its spicy hot pot, has also entered the market with a similar self-service model and pricing strategy, differentiating itself by incorporating seafood into its offerings [2][4] - The entry of large chain brands into the small hot pot sector is seen as a structural adjustment rather than a market-wide increase, with emerging brands like Weilai and Longge also expanding rapidly [2][4] - The competition is shifting towards high-end shopping centers, with brands like Weilai focusing on high-line cities, while traditional players like Xiaobai Xiaobai are facing challenges in maintaining their market share [6][8] Group 3 - The small hot pot industry is facing structural challenges, particularly in balancing quality and price, as evidenced by Xiaobai Xiaobai's declining performance attributed to consumer downgrade trends [9][10] - Concerns about quality degradation due to price competition are prevalent, with industry experts emphasizing the importance of establishing reliable quality control systems [9][10] - The competition is intensifying, with brands needing to differentiate themselves while managing supply chain capabilities to maintain quality at lower costs [10]