证券研究报告：建筑材料|行业周报 发布时间：2025-11-24 行业投资评级 强于大市|维持 | 行业基本情况 | | | --- | --- | | 收盘点位 | 5067.41 | | 52 周最高 | 5417.39 | | 52 周最低 | 4167.51 | 分析师:赵洋 SAC 登记编号:S1340524050002 Email:zhaoyang@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《 地产数据 10 月持续承压，期待政策 端变化》 - 2025.11.17 建材行业报告 （2025.11.17-2025.11.23） 地产政策预期升温，重视建材低位白马价值 投资要点 本周根据彭博报道，中国正考虑新措施以扭转其疲软的房地产市 场，包括首次在全国范围内向新房购房者提供抵押贷款补贴，其他措 施包括提高抵押贷款借款人的所得税退税，以及降低房屋交易成本。 目前地产仍在下行通道中，10 月份销售开工竣工数据均持续下滑，与 之相关后周期建材企业基本面整体触底，后续期待政策端变化，消费 建材等后周期相关白马品种有望迎来估值修复。 行业相对指数表现 -8% -5% -2% 1% 4% 7% 10% 13% 16 ...

证券研究报告：建筑材料|行业周报 发布时间：2025-10-20 行业投资评级 强于大市|维持 | 行业基本情况 | | | --- | --- | | 收盘点位 | 5129.37 | | 52 周最高 | 5355.99 | | 52 周最低 | 4167.51 | 行业相对指数表现 -9% -6% -3% 0% 3% 6% 9% 12% 15% 18% 21% 2024-10 2025-01 2025-03 2025-05 2025-08 2025-10 建筑材料 沪深300 资料来源：聚源，中邮证券研究所 研究所 分析师:赵洋 SAC 登记编号:S1340524050002 Email:zhaoyang@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《中美贸易摩擦升温，关注低位内需板 块》 - 2025.10.13 建材行业报告 （2025.10.13-2025.10.19） 内需避险逻辑强化，关注低位建材板块 投资要点 我们认为市场短期进入内需逻辑强化的窗口，一方面市场风偏下 降，中美贸易摩擦升温、三季报的落地、以及科技板块的回调，可能 促使市场增强对于低位内需板块的关注。我们认为，建材板块中具备 内需+高股 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" for both construction and building materials, maintained from previous assessments [7]. Core Insights - The report indicates that the construction sector is approaching a turning point, with expectations of narrowing year-on-year declines in revenue due to a low base in Q3 2024 [1]. - The demand for consumer building materials remains relatively stable, with retail categories showing signs of resilience despite ongoing pressures in the engineering sector [1]. - The cement and glass sectors are experiencing weak physical volumes, but there are signs of inventory and price improvements as of September [1]. - High-end demand for fiberglass is strong, leading to continuous profit improvements for companies in that segment, while carbon fiber prices remain stable, supported by wind energy demand [1]. Summary by Sections Construction Sector - In Q3 2025, local government special bond net financing is approximately 1.6 trillion yuan, a decrease of 2.11% from Q2 [2]. - Infrastructure, real estate, and manufacturing investments have shown a year-on-year decline of 1.2%, 0.9%, and 1.1 percentage points respectively compared to the previous month [2]. - Major state-owned enterprises are expected to maintain flat revenue, but the year-on-year decline may narrow due to the low base effect from Q3 2024 [2]. - Regional state-owned enterprises are expected to perform variably, with some regions like Sichuan showing profit growth [2]. Consumer Building Materials - Prices for key raw materials in Q3 2025 show mixed trends, with waterproofing and gypsum board prices increasing while others like hardware and pipes decline [3]. - The cumulative sales of commercial housing from January to August 2025 decreased by 4.7%, while the sales of second-hand homes in sample cities still showed positive growth [3]. - Retail sales in the building and decoration materials sector reached 108.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.8% [3]. Cement and Glass - The average price of cement in Q3 2025 is 349 yuan/ton, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 10.5% [4]. - The average price of float glass is 65 yuan per heavy box, down 13.3% year-on-year, but there is a price increase trend starting in September [4]. - The profitability of the glass sector is expected to improve year-on-year, although supply-side changes are still needed [4]. Fiberglass and Carbon Fiber - The demand for high-end electronic yarn remains strong, with profit improvements expected for fiberglass companies [5]. - The average price of carbon fiber has remained stable, with a slight year-on-year decline, but overall demand is improving, particularly in the wind energy sector [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the building materials industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector's performance relative to the overall market [2][10]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the cement industry is experiencing a traditional seasonal downturn in Q3 2025, with prices expected to decline after peaking earlier in the year. The average cement price in Q3 2025 is projected at 353.1 CNY/ton, down 27.6 CNY/ton from the previous quarter and down 33.5% year-on-year [2][3]. - The report notes that while the cement industry's profitability is under pressure, there are ongoing developments in overseas markets, particularly in Africa, where profitability is expected to improve [2]. - In the fiberglass sector, the report indicates that mid-to-high-end product prices are more resilient, with special fabrics contributing positively to profitability. The report anticipates continued differentiation in the fiberglass market, with low-end products facing weaker profitability [2][3]. - The consumer building materials segment is expected to see strong performance from quality companies, particularly in categories like coatings and tiles, as demand in the residential real estate market remains relatively weak [2]. - The glass industry is facing challenges, with photovoltaic glass prices slightly declining and flat glass prices under pressure. The report suggests that the industry may see a shift towards cleaner production methods, which could improve profitability in the coming years [2]. Summary by Sections Cement - Q3 2025 is a traditional off-season for the cement industry, with prices expected to decline after a peak earlier in the year. The average price is projected at 353.1 CNY/ton, down 27.6 CNY/ton from the previous quarter and down 33.5% year-on-year [2][3]. - The industry is expected to face overall profitability pressure, but overseas expansion, particularly in Africa, shows promise for improved earnings [2]. Fiberglass - Mid-to-high-end fiberglass products are showing stronger price resilience, while low-end products are struggling. The report anticipates continued growth in special fabric sales [2][3]. Consumer Building Materials - Quality companies in the consumer building materials sector are expected to stand out, particularly in categories with strong brand value and retail attributes. Price increases in various segments are anticipated to stabilize in Q3 2025 [2]. Glass - The glass industry is experiencing price declines, particularly in photovoltaic and flat glass. The report suggests a potential shift towards cleaner production methods, which may enhance profitability in the future [2]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies with improving Q3 performance expectations and strong fundamentals, including major players in the cement, fiberglass, consumer building materials, and glass sectors [2][3].

Group 1: Cement Industry - The demand for cement is improving slightly, with companies actively pushing for price increases due to the traditional peak season [1] - National cement prices have seen a slight increase this week, driven by higher demand and proactive pricing strategies from cement companies [1] - Despite some recovery in market demand, it remains weaker compared to the same period last year, and the overall increase in demand is expected to be limited [1] Group 2: Consumer Building Materials - The home decoration market is expected to recover in September, supported by urban renewal initiatives, which will improve demand for consumer building materials [2] - Retail sales of building and decoration materials from January to August 2025 grew by 1.8% year-on-year, with a slight decline in August due to adverse weather conditions [2] - The ongoing "old-for-new" policy is anticipated to further stimulate demand in the home decoration market [2] Group 3: Glass Fiber - Prices for roving and electronic yarns remain stable, with strong demand for high-end electronic yarns [3] - The market for roving is stable, but traditional thermosetting product demand is recovering slowly, leading to sustained supply pressure [3] - High-end electronic yarns are experiencing a supply gap, while traditional electronic yarns see stable production and demand [3] Group 4: Float Glass - Float glass prices have seen a slight increase, with seasonal demand recovering slowly [4] - The market is characterized by high inventory levels at float glass manufacturers, leading to significant pressure to reduce stock [4] - Overall market demand is expected to increase gradually, but the improvement will be limited, with companies primarily purchasing based on immediate needs [4]

Group 1: Cement Industry - The cement market is currently experiencing weak demand, with an average price of 271.67 yuan/ton in August, showing a month-on-month decline [1] - Seasonal demand is expected to recover from September to November, potentially leading to price increases due to the "anti-involution" trend promoting capacity reduction [1] Group 2: Consumer Building Materials - Retail sales of building and decoration materials grew by 2.2% year-on-year from January to July 2025, but saw a 0.5% year-on-year decline in July, indicating a seasonal slowdown [2] - Urban renewal initiatives are anticipated to boost demand for renovation and repair materials such as pipes, waterproofing, and coatings [2] Group 3: Glass Fiber - The market for glass fiber is under pressure, with small and medium enterprises experiencing slight price reductions for coarse yarn due to high inventory levels [3] - Demand for high-end electronic yarn remains strong, while traditional electronic yarn products face increased supply pressure, leading to a slight price decrease [3] Group 4: Float Glass - The float glass market continues to show weak demand, with prices reverting to levels seen before the June price increase, indicating a historical low [4] - Seasonal demand may improve slightly, but supply-side pressures are expected to limit significant price increases in the short term [4]

Group 1: Cement Industry - In August, the cement market remained in a seasonal downturn, with high temperatures and rainy weather affecting downstream construction, leading to weak demand and a decrease in operating load of cement mills [1][2] - The average price of cement in August was 271.67 yuan/ton, showing a month-on-month decline [1][2] - A seasonal demand recovery is expected from September to November, combined with the "anti-involution" trend accelerating industry capacity reduction, which may help ease supply-demand imbalances and support price increases [1][2] Group 2: Construction Materials - Retail sales of construction and decoration materials saw a slight decline, with a year-on-year growth of 2.2% from January to July 2025, while July's retail sales decreased by 0.5% year-on-year and 14.45% month-on-month [2] - The ongoing urban renewal initiatives are expected to boost demand for renovation and repair materials, such as pipes, waterproofing, and coatings [2] Group 3: Fiberglass - In August, the pricing of fiberglass roving from small and medium enterprises showed slight weakening, while demand for high-end electronic yarn products remained strong [3] - The supply of traditional electronic yarn products faced pressure, leading to a slight price reduction, but high-end products are expected to see price increases due to demand recovery [3] Group 4: Float Glass - The float glass market continued to experience weak demand, with prices returning to levels seen before previous increases by the end of August [3] - Despite the potential for slight price recovery due to seasonal demand, supply-side pressures remain, limiting significant price increases [3] Group 5: Investment Recommendations - Companies with strong brand advantages and product quality in the construction materials sector, such as Beixin Building Materials, Weixing New Materials, and Dongfang Yuhong, are expected to benefit from urban development focusing on quality improvement [4] - In the cement sector, regional leaders like Shangfeng Cement are recommended, with attention to Huaxin Cement and Conch Cement due to expected profit recovery [5] - For fiberglass, companies like China Jushi are recommended, with a focus on Zhongcai Technology for potential performance recovery [5] - In the glass sector, attention is drawn to Qibin Group as the industry supply-demand dynamics improve [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the construction materials sector [4] Core Views - The construction materials sector is expected to benefit from government debt management measures aimed at supporting high-quality development and alleviating financial pressure on local governments [2] - The cement industry is in a demand bottoming phase, with supply-side improvements anticipated due to increased production discipline [2][3] - The glass fiber sector shows signs of recovery with demand from wind power projects expected to rise, while the photovoltaic glass market is stabilizing due to self-regulated production cuts [2][7] - Consumer building materials are recommended due to favorable conditions in the second-hand housing market and consumption stimulus policies [2] Summary by Sections Cement Industry Tracking - As of September 12, 2025, the national cement price index is 339.18 CNY/ton, up 0.89% week-on-week, with a total cement output of 2.659 million tons, an increase of 3.16% [3][17] - The cement clinker capacity utilization rate is 55.69%, up 14.96 percentage points from the previous week [3][17] - The construction sector is showing steady growth, but regional weather and demand release discrepancies are affecting the overall market [17] Glass Industry Tracking - The average price of float glass is 1197.01 CNY/ton, with a slight increase of 0.34% week-on-week [6] - Inventory levels have decreased, but demand remains weak, with many small processing plants facing order shortages [6] Glass Fiber Industry Tracking - The price of non-alkali glass fiber has seen a slight increase, with demand showing limited recovery [7] - The demand for electronic yarn is stable, with high-end products continuing to perform well [7] Consumer Building Materials - The consumer building materials sector is experiencing a weak recovery, with upstream raw material prices fluctuating [8] - The report highlights the potential for long-term market share growth in this sector [2] Carbon Fiber Industry Tracking - The carbon fiber market remains stable, with production costs at 107,100 CNY/ton and a negative gross margin [8]

Core Insights - The construction materials index increased by 0.14% during the week of August 25 to August 29, 2025, underperforming the CSI 300 index, which rose by 2.71% [1][3] - Over the past three months, the CSI 300 index has risen by 16.33%, while the construction materials index increased by 20.59%, indicating a 4.26% outperformance of the construction materials sector [1][3] - In the past year, the CSI 300 index has increased by 35.39%, and the construction materials index has risen by 42.76%, showing a 7.38% outperformance [1][3] Industry Overview - The construction materials industry prosperity index rose to 101.2 in August, up 6.4 points from July, marking an end to three consecutive months of contraction [2] - The supply-side production index returned to expansion, while the price index remains in contraction, indicating restored production but pressured prices [2] - Investment demand and industrial consumption indices have both returned above the critical point, reflecting the effects of infrastructure funding and real estate policies [2] - The international trade index remains below the critical point, indicating continued weakness in external demand [2] Recommendations - Recommended companies in the consumer building materials sector include: - Sanke Tree (channel expansion and retail growth) - Dongfang Yuhong (waterproofing leader with optimized operations) - Weixing New Materials (high-quality operations with significant retail business) - Jianlang Hardware [2] - Beneficiary companies include: - Beixin Building Materials (gypsum board leader with diversified expansion in coatings and waterproofing) - Conch Cement, Huaxin Cement, and Shangfeng Cement in the cement sector [2] Price Trends - As of August 29, 2025, the average price of P.O 42.5 bulk cement was 275.40 CNY/ton, down 1.81% from the previous period [4] - The average price of float glass was 1190.94 CNY/ton, with a slight increase of 0.26% [5] - The price of asphalt remained stable at 4570 CNY/ton, up 2.93% since the beginning of 2025 [6]

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The real estate sector is characterized as a "three low" industry (low price-to-book ratio, low positioning, low attention), suggesting that the valuation gap will eventually close [3][5] - The construction and real estate sectors are experiencing significant challenges, with broad infrastructure investment growth declining by 1.9% year-on-year in July 2025, marking the first negative growth in two years [6][9] - The construction investment growth rate in July 2025 was negative 5.1%, indicating a severe decline in local government-funded projects and highlighting fiscal difficulties [6][9] Key Points and Arguments - Real estate stocks are not to be viewed pessimistically; the market is in a phase of orderly expansion, and the sector's win rate is high due to its low valuation metrics [3][5] - In July 2025, real estate investment fell by 17.1%, while manufacturing investment decreased by 0.3%, both showing significant declines and marking a critical turning point [11] - The cash flow situation in the real estate market has improved compared to last year, with financing costs and completion rates showing strength, suggesting potential recovery in construction data in the second half of the year [2] - The introduction of special bonds and government debt in July has significantly increased, aiding in resolving real estate debt issues and enhancing macroeconomic stability [7] Notable Companies and Their Performance - Companies like Vanke, JinDi, Longfor, and New Town are identified as having high elasticity due to improved competitive dynamics [8] - Service-oriented companies such as Wanwu Cloud, China Resources Mixc, and China Overseas Property are also highlighted for their dividend performance in the mid-year reports [8] - Recommended companies in the consumer building materials sector include Oriental Yuhong and Henkel Group, which are expected to perform well due to improved market conditions [19] Risks and Future Outlook - The upcoming mid-year reports for construction companies are anticipated to be risky, with potential for lower-than-expected performance due to increased receivables and declining revenues [13][16] - Despite short-term risks, there is potential for a rebound in the fourth quarter, particularly for companies with mineral resource attributes, such as China Metallurgical Group and China Railway [14] - The cement industry is projected to face a demand decline of 4.5% for the year, with July's demand down by 5.6% [17] Additional Insights - The consumer building materials sector is showing signs of recovery, with improved fundamentals and reduced price wars, which may lead to enhanced profitability [18] - The western region's infrastructure projects are expected to significantly impact the building materials industry, with strong demand and funding availability [24] - Investors are advised to adjust their positions cautiously in anticipation of potential volatility following the mid-year report disclosures [15]