证券研究报告：建筑材料|行业周报 发布时间：2026-03-02 强于大市|维持 | 行业基本情况 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘点位 | | 6571.81 | | 52 | 周最高 | 6706.6 | | 52 | 周最低 | 4167.51 | 行业相对指数表现 研究所 分析师:赵洋 SAC 登记编号:S1340524050002 Email:zhaoyang@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《电子布涨价超预期，看好 26 年涨价 持续性》 - 2026.02.09 建材行业报告 （2026.02.23-2026.03.01） 电子布延续高景气，看好龙头中国巨石 投资要点 行业投资评级 电子布自 25 年 10 月已经历 4 轮涨价，2 月初涨价幅度达 0.5-0.6 元/米，涨价节奏及幅度均超预期。一方面，AI 相关的 low-CTE、一 代布二代布等产品需求旺盛高景气，供给短期难以满足，产品价格有 望持续提升。另一方面，由于行业产能转向 AI 特种玻纤，传统电子 布产能紧缺、叠加织布机紧缺等因素，预计传统电子布仍将延续超预 期涨价态势。建议关注：中国巨石。 水泥： ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [1] Core Views - The report highlights that the electronic cloth sector has experienced four rounds of price increases since October 2025, with a price increase of 0.5-0.6 yuan/meter in early February 2026, driven by strong demand from AI-related products and a supply shortage [3] - The cement industry is gradually recovering post-Spring Festival, with demand showing signs of improvement, particularly in the civil market, while the overall capacity is expected to decline under production restriction policies, leading to increased profit elasticity [3] - The glass industry is facing continuous demand pressure due to real estate impacts, with short-term price fluctuations expected to remain low due to high inventory levels among intermediaries [4] - The fiberglass sector is anticipated to see explosive growth driven by AI demand, with a clear upgrade in product structure and a trend of simultaneous volume and price increases [4] - The consumer building materials sector is expected to see profit improvements as prices stabilize after years of competition, with major companies expected to issue price increases in 2026 [4] Summary by Sections Cement - National demand is gradually recovering post-Spring Festival, with a notable decline in cement production of 1.44 billion tons in December 2025, down 6.6% year-on-year [8] Glass - The glass market is under pressure with traditional peak season orders showing limited improvement, and supply-side adjustments are expected to keep prices low in the short term [15] Fiberglass - The demand for electronic yarn is strong, driven by the AI industry, with expectations for simultaneous increases in volume and price due to product upgrades [4] Consumer Building Materials - The sector's profitability has reached a bottom, with strong calls for price increases expected to lead to profit improvements for leading companies in 2026 [4]

Core Viewpoint - The building materials sector is expected to experience fundamental improvement and valuation recovery due to dual drivers of policy support and real estate recovery, with a strategic window opening in 2025 [1] Policy Support - The fiscal policy for 2025 includes a record high special bond allocation of 4.4 trillion yuan, with 800 billion yuan directed towards "two major" construction and urban renewal projects, providing certainty for infrastructure demand [2] - Monetary policy is expected to maintain a moderately loose stance, with anticipated cumulative reductions in reserve requirement ratios of 150-250 basis points and interest rates by 40-60 basis points, benefiting infrastructure investment and real estate construction recovery [2] - Real estate policies aim for stabilization, with measures such as optimizing purchase restrictions and lowering down payment ratios, leading to signs of price recovery in first-tier cities; from January to May 2025, the year-on-year decline in commercial housing sales area narrowed to 2.9%, a significant improvement compared to 2024 [2] Market Trends - Starting in 2025, the sales area and prices of commercial housing are expected to rebound, particularly in the first half of the year, with a notable narrowing of overall declines [5] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's "Building Materials Industry Stabilization Growth Work Plan (2025-2026)" emphasizes improving profitability and prohibits new cement clinker and flat glass capacity, promoting capacity replacement and staggered production to optimize the supply structure [5] - The real estate market in first-tier cities is projected to maintain high transaction levels post-2026, with second-tier cities like Hangzhou, Nanjing, Chengdu, and Tianjin also showing positive performance [5] Demand Dynamics - The policy to ensure housing delivery is expected to reduce the year-on-year decline in housing completion area to around 15% in the first half of 2025, directly stimulating demand for basic building materials like cement and glass [6] - The total urban housing stock in China is 37.3 billion square meters, with increasing renovation and upgrading needs driven by aging properties, leading to new growth in building material consumption; green building materials revenue is expected to exceed 300 billion yuan by 2026 [6] Investment Opportunities - The building materials sector has faced five years of decline, but positive signals are emerging, suggesting a potential recovery in the sector [8] - The Building Materials ETF (159745) tracks the CSI All Share Building Materials Index, covering leading companies across the entire industry chain, providing an efficient tool for investors to gain exposure to the building materials sector [8] - The current environment favors cyclical sectors, with the building materials industry presenting investment value due to demand recovery, supply optimization, and profitability restoration, alongside low valuations and high dividends [10]

Group 1: Cement Industry - The cement industry is expected to see the effects of capacity reduction by 2026, improving the supply-demand balance and leading to a price recovery, which will gradually restore corporate profitability [1] - In January, the cement market faced seasonal weakness with reduced demand and price pressure, but inventory levels are gradually decreasing, and prices are expected to stabilize in the short term, with potential increases in March due to seasonal construction [1] Group 2: Glass Fiber - In January, the price of raw glass fiber remained stable, supported by some demand recovery and inventory adjustments, while electronic fiber prices increased due to strong demand and supply constraints [2] - The demand for high-end glass fiber products remains robust, and prices are expected to maintain an upward trend in the short term, despite potential temporary declines in traditional electronic fiber demand [2] Group 3: Consumer Building Materials - The retail sales of building and decoration materials decreased by 2.7% year-on-year in 2025, with a significant drop in December, but demand is expected to recover slightly due to urban renewal strategies and the push for high-quality green building materials [3] - Leading companies in the consumer building materials sector are implementing price increases, which, along with anti-competitive policies, may help restore profitability [3] Group 4: Float Glass - The float glass market is experiencing weakening demand, with speculative purchasing increasing, leading to a decline in prices and high overall inventory levels [4] - Short-term demand is expected to continue decreasing, and the price center is likely to shift downward due to ongoing supply-demand pressures [4]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Hold" [3] Core Insights - In Q4 2025, funds increased their allocation in the cement and glass sectors, while the overall allocation in the building materials sector remains low at 0.51%, with a low allocation of 0.49% [19][23] - The industry shows signs of profit recovery, with leading companies demonstrating resilience [23] - The fund's strategy continues to focus on core industries that counteract internal competition, particularly in waterproofing and glass [41] Fund Holdings Analysis - As of Q4 2025, the fund's allocation in the building materials sector is 0.51%, up by 0.046 percentage points from the previous quarter, indicating a low allocation compared to the overall market [19] - The allocation by sub-sector includes cement at 0.13%, glass at 0.07%, and other materials at 0.02% [23] - The fund increased its holdings in all sub-sectors except for consumer materials, new materials, and glass fibers [23] Individual Stock Performance - The top ten companies by fund holdings as of Q4 2025 include: - 菲利华 (44.5 billion RMB) - 东方雨虹 (22.4 billion RMB) - 三棵树 (20.5 billion RMB) - 中材科技 (16.1 billion RMB) - 海螺水泥 (13.7 billion RMB) [41] - The top ten companies by fund holding percentage include: - 菲利华 (8.68%) - 东方雨虹 (8.61%) - 三棵树 (6.00%) [41] Valuation and Financial Analysis - The report includes a detailed valuation and financial analysis of key companies in the building materials sector, with several companies rated as "Buy" based on their projected earnings and price-to-earnings ratios [7]

Group 1: Construction Materials - The completion end of construction materials is expected to reach a long-term turning point in 2026, driven by factors such as a narrowing decline in new housing completions, improving second-hand housing transaction volumes, and a significant increase in the stock of homes entering the renovation cycle [1][10][20] - The demand structure has been significantly impacted by economic pressures, leading to a delay in renovation needs, but positive changes are anticipated in the future, with a dual positive shift expected in the industry due to continuous supply contraction [1][21][33] - The glass supply is notably shrinking, approaching a supply-demand balance, with a focus on price elasticity in 2026, highlighting the importance of companies like Qibin Group [1][43] Group 2: Construction Start Materials - Profit recovery in the construction start materials sector is underway, but further policy support is needed for a sustained trend. The demand for construction starts is primarily driven by new real estate projects and infrastructure [2][14] - The cement industry has seen a significant exit of over 160 million tons of actual capacity, leading to a relatively stable price environment and improved profit margins for companies with cost advantages, such as Conch Cement and Huaxin Cement [2][33] Group 3: New Materials - The report emphasizes the potential of electronic yarn, carbon fiber, and TCO glass. The electronic yarn sector is experiencing price increases due to high demand driven by the AI industry [3][17] - Carbon fiber demand is expected to grow rapidly, driven by the wind energy sector and aerospace applications, with companies like Zhongfu Shenying being highlighted for their growth potential [3][20] - TCO glass is entering a commercial application phase, with significant production capacity planned by companies such as BOE Technology and JinkoSolar, indicating a strong future demand for this material [3][23] Group 4: Key Investment Targets - Key investment targets include companies like Sankeshu (603737.SH), Weixing New Materials (002372.SZ), and Rabbit Baby (002043.SZ), with projected earnings per share (EPS) growth and favorable price-to-earnings (PE) ratios indicating potential for investment [6][7] - The report maintains a buy rating for companies like China Jushi (600176.SH) and Zhongfu Shenying (688295.SH), reflecting confidence in their growth prospects in the new materials sector [6][7]

Investment Rating - The report recommends a "Buy" rating for several key companies in the building materials sector, including China Jushi, Huaxin Cement, and Dongfang Yuhong [5]. Core Insights - The building materials industry is experiencing a transformation, with traditional categories weakening while price increases are leading the recovery [1]. - The demand for cement is expected to stabilize in the short term, with a potential rebound in March due to seasonal construction activities [4][15]. - The fiberglass sector is seeing price increases driven by high demand for electronic yarn, while the overall market remains tight [4][42]. - The consumer building materials market is shifting towards high-quality products, supported by urban renewal strategies and price increases from leading companies [4][39]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Transformation - The building materials industry plays a crucial role in supporting various sectors, including infrastructure and emerging industries [7]. - The industry is undergoing a transition towards high-quality development, with a focus on technological upgrades and sustainable practices [9]. 2. Traditional Materials Weakness and Price Increases - Cement demand is under pressure due to seasonal factors, with a decrease in total demand observed in January [15]. - The fiberglass market is experiencing stable prices for raw yarn, while electronic yarn prices are rising due to strong demand [42]. - Consumer building materials are seeing a shift towards high-quality products, with urban renewal driving demand [39]. 3. Market Confidence and Valuation Recovery - The building materials sector is witnessing a gradual recovery in valuations, supported by multiple favorable factors [4]. - The financial performance of the industry has improved, with significant cash flow recovery noted in the first three quarters [6]. 4. Investment Recommendations - For cement, the report suggests focusing on leading companies like Huaxin Cement and Conch Cement, which are expected to benefit from improved supply-demand dynamics [4]. - In the fiberglass sector, companies like China Jushi and China National Building Material are highlighted for their strong earnings potential [4]. - The consumer building materials segment is recommended for investment, particularly companies with strong brand and distribution advantages [4].

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview Real Estate Market - New home sales in core cities are still experiencing negative growth, while the second-hand housing market saw significant increases in transaction volume year-on-year and month-on-month due to early demand for school district properties and supply lagging behind, leading to a rise in both volume and price [1][3] - Anticipation for continued market heat in March, with April's performance dependent on policy support. A potential policy package similar to that of September 24, 2024, could signal a fundamental turning point in core urban areas by the end of 2026 [1][4] - Real estate stocks typically lead the fundamentals by 2-3 quarters, suggesting Q2 may be a good time to increase allocations [4] Construction and Building Materials - The construction and building materials sector is currently in a subdued state, with many projects halted due to the approaching Spring Festival and downstream demand not yet released [6] - Cement prices are continuously declining, with a recent drop of 0.8%. Glass demand is shrinking, and prices remain stable, while manufacturers of consumer building materials are promoting price increases [6][10] - The sector is at historical low levels, presenting opportunities for capital rebalancing [7] Express Delivery Industry - Domestic express delivery business saw a high growth rate of approximately 20% in January, influenced by the timing of the Spring Festival. There is a noticeable divergence in growth rates among leading companies [8] - Jitu Express benefits from the rapid growth of TikTok in Southeast Asia and Latin America, predicting high growth in shipment volume for Q1 due to promotional activities [8] Oil Transportation Industry - Since August 2025, oil transportation rates have significantly increased due to improved supply-demand dynamics and tightening sanctions. The BDTI index has nearly doubled year-on-year as of February 2, 2026 [9][11] - The mid-term outlook suggests continued upward pressure on rates due to geopolitical events and sanctions, providing substantial earnings elasticity for companies in this sector [11] Chemical Logistics - Chemical prices have gradually recovered since late 2025, although they remain at five-year lows. The industry is expected to experience a recovery in trade activity and inventory digestion, leading to improved logistics conditions [12] Civil Aviation - Domestic civil aviation demand is robust, with January passenger volume increasing nearly 9% year-on-year. The Spring Festival period is expected to exceed historical peak levels for passenger volume [13][14] - The average ticket price has increased by 2.4% year-on-year, with a notable rise in pre-sale ticket prices expected in the coming weeks [13][14] Road Transportation - High-speed road freight throughput reached 241 million vehicles in January, marking a year-on-year increase of 22.8%. Predictions indicate significant population movement during the Spring Festival, with a projected increase in passenger volume [15] Key Recommendations - For real estate, focus on companies like China Merchants Shekou, New Town Holdings (A-shares), and China Resources Land (H-shares) [5] - In the construction sector, consider leading firms such as Yuhong, Sankeshu, Tubao, and China Jushi [7] - In the express delivery sector, maintain a watch on leading domestic companies and Jitu Express for overseas delivery [16] - For oil transportation, prioritize companies like China Merchants Energy and COSCO Shipping Energy [11] - In the chemical logistics space, look at companies like Meikewei, Xingtong Co., and Hongtan Wisdom for potential performance rebounds [12] - In civil aviation, monitor the evolving pricing strategies of airlines as they shift towards price control [14]

Group 1 - The building materials sector has shown a strong rebound, with the building materials ETF (159745) rising over 2%, and continuous capital inflow exceeding 1 billion yuan over the past 10 days, bringing its total scale to over 1.6 billion yuan, ranking first among its peers [1] - Shanghai has initiated a program to acquire second-hand housing for the purpose of providing affordable rental housing, with pilot districts including Pudong New Area, Jing'an District, and Xuhui District. The first batch of targeted acquisitions will focus on housing types that match, reasonable layouts, mature supporting facilities, and convenient transportation to meet the "work-life balance" needs of various talents [1] - According to Guosheng Securities, since 2026, the real estate market in first-tier cities has maintained high transaction levels, particularly in the second-hand housing market. Second-tier cities such as Hangzhou, Nanjing, Chengdu, and Tianjin have also performed well. The increased debt resolution policies are expected to alleviate government financial pressure and provide room for corporate balance sheet recovery, accelerating municipal engineering projects [1] Group 2 - Zhongyou Securities indicates that in the consumer building materials sector, industry profitability has bottomed out, with frequent price increase notices being issued. Leading companies are expected to benefit from anti-competition policies and improved downstream demand [1]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Focus - The report focuses on the **materials and energy sectors**, specifically highlighting trends in **non-ferrous metals, oil, chemicals, and storage** industries [1]. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Non-Ferrous Metals Price Increase**: Driven by geopolitical risk aversion and concerns over US dollar credit, prices for non-ferrous metals such as **silver and gold** have risen. This price increase is impacting the cost structure in the **semiconductor manufacturing and testing sectors**, particularly affecting **passive components and power devices** [1]. 2. **Oil Price Surge**: Supply-side disruptions combined with escalating geopolitical tensions have led to an increase in oil prices. This rise is being transmitted downstream, resulting in price hikes in the **chemical sector** and **consumer building materials** such as waterproofing and coatings [1]. 3. **AI-Driven Price Increases**: The strong demand for AI technologies is causing a price surge across various sectors, including **semiconductor manufacturing and testing, storage, CPUs, and cloud services** [1]. Other Important Insights - The report indicates a **deep transmission and linkage** of price increases throughout the supply chain, suggesting a systemic impact across multiple industries [1].