近日，长华化学董事长顾仁发在接受中国证券报记者采访时表示，化工行业近期出现局部回暖迹象，但 整体还没有真正触底反弹，化工行业"内卷"现象整体仍然比较严重。在真正企稳回升之前，预计化工行 业要经历一轮较为明显的并购整合。 在顾仁发看来，长华化学所在的精细化工行业，如果和新兴产业产生强关联，比较容易产生爆发式增 长。为此，长华化学一直重视新品研发，目前的研发方向主要集中在可持续发展领域。 ● 本报记者 董添 据长华化学介绍，公司自成立之初便组建研究院，现有研发人员40多名，包括博士、外国专家等，同时 公司也积极与南京工业大学、苏州大学开展产学研合作。历经15年技术创新与深耕，公司在分子结构设 计、聚合工艺突破、性能定向开发等关键领域持续攻坚，构建起从基础研究、中试验证到产业化落地的 全链条技术体系，形成行业领先的核心技术能力。公司现有产品全部来自自主研发，涵盖软泡用聚醚、 CASE用聚醚及特种聚醚，其中高活性POP和高回弹PPG产品是公司的核心竞争力产品，产品具备低气 味、低VOC、低醛类及低苯系物含量等核心特性。 深挖绿色低碳赛道 据长华化学介绍，公司目前的技术研发方向主要有催化剂的迭代升级、高性能车用聚醚、特 ...

Core Insights - The Huai'an Industrial Park is focusing on the high-quality development of the polyurethane industry, establishing a collaborative innovation platform involving government, industry, academia, and finance to promote project signings and implementation [1][4] - The park aims to create a first-class polyurethane new materials industrial base in China, leveraging its existing industrial foundations and enhancing the supply chain with specialized products [2][4] Group 1: Industrial Development - The Huai'an Industrial Park has identified polyurethane as a core focus area, attracting key enterprises across the entire supply chain to enhance its industrial ecosystem [1][2] - The park is developing a distinctive industrial system in functional new materials and polyether-based polyurethane, positioning itself as a significant hub for the national polyurethane industry [2][4] Group 2: Infrastructure and Services - The Huai'an Polyurethane New Materials Industrial Park covers an area of 686 acres and is equipped with comprehensive facilities, enabling companies to quickly set up operations with minimal hassle [3][4] - The park offers seven advantages, including policies, transportation, research, talent, resources, elements, and business environment, to support enterprises [3][4] Group 3: Innovation and Collaboration - The park has signed multiple strategic cooperation agreements and projects, including the establishment of a technology transfer center in collaboration with Beijing University of Chemical Technology [5][6] - The park aims to achieve a significant increase in industrial output value by 2030, targeting a fourfold increase in total industrial output [6]

Core Viewpoint - The meeting held by the Zibo Municipal Government focused on the innovation and development of the polyurethane industry chain, highlighting the efforts to create leading advantages in this sector [1]. Company Overview - China National Chemical Corporation's subsidiary, Zhonghua Dongda, is a national manufacturing champion with nearly 40 years of experience in the industrial production of polyether polyols, operating two production bases in Zibo and Quanzhou with a total capacity of 640,000 tons per year [3]. - Zhonghua Dongda's product range includes over 100 types of high-rebound polyether, elastic polyether, soft foam polyether, hard foam crosslinking agent polyether, POP polyether, and specialty polyethers, which are widely used in high-end automotive, rail transportation interiors, waterproof coatings, cable coatings, and eco-friendly sealing adhesives [3]. Market Position - Zhonghua Dongda holds a 35% market share in the domestic automotive interior sector and has established partnerships with mainstream new energy vehicle brands [3]. - The company is also making strides in specialty polyethers, developing high-end products such as UV-curable polyethers to replace some imported products, with applications in electronic display bonding, fiber optic cable coatings, new energy battery packaging, and electronic device adhesives [3]. Innovation and Sustainability - Zhonghua Dongda is involved in the national "14th Five-Year" key research and development plan and has developed the world's first industrialized low-carbon eco-friendly polyurethane waterproof coating polyether polyol, which significantly improves batch stability and reduces VOC emissions by lowering intermediate viscosity by 20% [4]. - The company has become a core supplier for several multinational corporations, including BASF, Huntsman, Covestro, and Mitsui, as well as long-term partners with domestic leaders like BYD, Dongfeng, and Zhejiang Huafeng [4]. Industry Collaboration - As a provincial-level green supply chain management enterprise and the president unit of the Zibo polyurethane industry chain cooperation alliance, Zhonghua Dongda aims to leverage Zibo's comprehensive industrial advantages to integrate resources across the epoxy propane, polyether polyol, and polyurethane industries, enhancing the overall strength of the Zibo polyurethane industry chain [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the basic chemical industry [4] Core Viewpoints - The exit of overseas bulk chemicals is expected to accelerate the growth of China's fine chemicals [6][21] - China's petrochemical capacity has rapidly increased since 2018, surpassing the US in refining capacity in 2023, leading to a stronger competitive position compared to Europe and Northeast Asia [15][6] - The reduction in imports of phenol and the expansion of downstream products like PC and epoxy resins in China have significantly decreased overseas demand for phenol, creating opportunities for domestic fine chemical companies [15][6] Summary by Sections 1. Impact of Overseas Bulk Chemical Exit - The exit of European bulk chemical capacity is driven by the rapid enhancement of China's chemical industry competitiveness [10] - China's share in bulk chemicals has been increasing, with significant capital expenditure leading to output growth [10][18] - The exit of marginal capacity in Europe and Japan is expected to accelerate supply-demand balance restoration in the industry [23][24] 2. Opportunities for Domestic Fine Chemicals - China's technological breakthroughs and industry chain expansion are forcing European upstream bulk chemicals to exit [25] - The trend of European chemical industry exit is unlikely to reverse, providing growth opportunities for China's fine chemical enterprises [25][39] - The exit of bulk chemicals will lead to supply issues in fine chemical products, prompting demand for stable suppliers from China [39][44] 3. Investment Recommendations - Recommended companies include: - Huangma Technology (603181, Buy): A leader in specialty polyether with a total capacity of approximately 225,000 tons and new projects adding 330,000 tons [47] - Changqing Technology (603125, Not Rated): A leader in specialty monomers with a projected capacity increase from 35,000 tons to 90,500 tons by the end of 2024 [47] - Lianlong (300596, Buy): A leader in polymer materials with a focus on anti-aging agents and lubricant additives [47]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" for companies with strong fundamentals and low correlation to oil prices, suggesting a bottom-fishing strategy [10][18]. Core Viewpoints - The report indicates a recovery in macro expectations, with a notable increase in oil prices due to supply risks from geopolitical tensions and seasonal demand [10][14]. - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on domestic demand and opportunities in new material substitutions, particularly in the agricultural chemical sector during the spring planting season [10][18]. Summary by Sections 1. Core Viewpoints - Oil prices have risen this week, with a focus on companies that have strong fundamentals and are less affected by oil price fluctuations [10][18]. - Recommendations include companies like Wanhua Chemical, Huamao Technology, Runfeng Co., Guoguang Co., and Hualu Hengsheng, highlighting their unique market positions and growth potential [10][18]. 2. Oil and Chemical Price Information 2.1 Oil - As of June 6, Brent oil prices increased by 4.02% to $66.47 per barrel, driven by supply risks and seasonal demand [14]. - U.S. crude oil commercial inventories decreased by 4.3 million barrels to 436.1 million barrels [14]. 2.2 Chemicals - Among 188 monitored chemical products, the top three price increases this week were for liquid chlorine (up 11.8%), natural gas (up 9.3%), and hydrochloric acid (up 4.6%) [15]. - The report notes significant monthly price changes, with hydrochloric acid increasing by 54.5% [10][15]. 3. Price and Spread Changes - The report highlights the top three products with the largest weekly spread increases: R410a spread (up 200.0%), acrylic acid butyl ester spread (up 58.2%), and PTA (up 45.9%) [10][20]. - Monthly spread changes show significant increases in the electric stone method PVC spread (up 216.9%) [10][20].

Industry Overview - The Chinese polyether market price was 10,400 yuan/ton as of the end of March 2025, facing severe challenges of overcapacity [12] - Total polyether production capacity reached 9.5 million tons/year by February 2025, with expectations to exceed 11 million tons/year due to new capacity from several factories [12] - Despite the automotive and soft furniture industries being in a relatively busy season, overall demand remains weak, leading to increasing supply surplus issues [12] Industry Development History - The polyether industry in China has gone through four main stages, starting from the establishment of the largest polyether production facility in 1989 with an annual capacity of 20,000 tons [4] - By the end of 1996, national polyether production capacity reached 260,000 tons/year, marking a nearly 50% increase from 1994 [5] - The 2000s saw structural adjustments and technological innovations, with China becoming the second country to master PEEK technology in 2000 [5] Industry Current Status - The polyether market is currently characterized by overcapacity, with production capacity expected to exceed demand in the near future [12] - The market activity is low, and the overall demand is not keeping pace with the production capacity expansion [12] Industry Segmentation - The special polyether market, including low unsaturation polyether and bio-based polyether, saw a market size of 2.166 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 6.92% [14] - Demand growth in downstream applications, particularly in new energy and high-end manufacturing, has slowed due to global economic conditions [14] Key Companies' Performance - Wanhua Chemical, a leading player in the polyether industry, reported a revenue of 46.161 billion yuan in Q1 2024, showing a 6.70% year-on-year decline [18] - Changhua Chemical achieved a revenue of 3.05 billion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 12.47% [20] - Longhua New Materials focuses on soft foam polyether and CASE polyether, with products widely used in various sectors [20] Industry Development Trends - The polyether industry is expected to continue growing, driven by expanding downstream applications and steady demand growth [22] - Technological innovation and green production are becoming core drivers for future development, with a focus on cleaner and safer production technologies [24] - The competitive landscape is evolving, with leading companies consolidating their market positions while smaller firms seek opportunities through differentiation and industry chain integration [25]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive (Maintain)" [7] Core Viewpoints - This week, oil prices experienced a slight decline, while the prices of acrylic acid and coal tar saw significant increases. The report emphasizes a focus on leading companies with strong alpha that are less correlated with oil prices, suggesting a bottom-fishing strategy. It also highlights the importance of domestic demand and opportunities in new material domestic substitution, particularly in the agricultural chemical sector during the spring farming peak [9][17]. Summary by Sections Oil and Chemical Prices Information - As of May 23, Brent oil price decreased by 0.96% to $64.78 per barrel. The report notes that U.S. commercial crude oil inventories increased by 1.3 million barrels to 443.2 million barrels, with gasoline inventories rising by 800,000 barrels and distillate inventories by 600,000 barrels [13][14]. - Among 188 monitored chemical products, the top three price increases this week were acrylic acid (up 10.8%), coal tar (up 7.6%), and anthracene oil (up 5.7%). The largest declines were seen in liquid chlorine (down 16.7%), formic acid (down 8.0%), and tetrachloroethylene (down 7.2%) [9][14]. Price and Spread Changes - The report indicates that the top three products with the largest weekly price increases were acrylic acid (up 10.8%), coal tar (up 7.6%), and anthracene oil (up 5.7%). The largest monthly price increases were liquid chlorine (up 40.2%), but it also noted significant declines in formic acid (down 29.2%) [9][15]. - The top three products with the largest weekly spread increases were MTP spread (up 35.0%), acrylic acid spread (up 33.2%), and BDO spread (up 29.5%). The report also highlights significant declines in the spreads of acrylic acid butyl ester (down 710.1%) and R410a spread (down 100.0%) [9][19]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends several companies for investment: - Wanhua Chemical (600309, Buy): Core product MDI is seeing profit improvements, with new petrochemical and new material projects coming online [17]. - Huangma Technology (603181, Buy): A leading special polyether company that has entered a growth phase again [17]. - Runfeng Co., Ltd. (301035, Buy): A rare company with a global layout for formulation registration and sales channels [17]. - Guoguang Co., Ltd. (002749, Buy): A leading company in the plant growth regulator sector [17]. - Hualu Hengsheng (600426, Buy): Core product prices are recovering alongside a decline in coal prices, leading to continuous improvement in spreads [17].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive (Maintain)" [7] Core Viewpoints - Oil prices experienced a slight decline this week, with a focus on leading companies that have strong alpha and are less correlated with oil prices, suggesting a bottom-fishing strategy. The report emphasizes the importance of domestic demand and opportunities in new material domestic substitution, particularly in the agricultural chemical sector during the spring farming peak [17][9][5]. Summary by Sections Oil and Chemical Prices Information - As of May 23, Brent oil price decreased by 0.96% to $64.78 per barrel. The increase in U.S. commercial crude oil inventory and OPEC+ production expectations contributed to this decline. As of May 16, U.S. crude oil commercial inventory was 443.2 million barrels, with a weekly increase of 1.3 million barrels [13][2]. - Among 188 monitored chemical products, the top three price increases this week were acrylic acid (up 10.8%), coal tar (up 7.6%), and anthracene oil (up 5.7%). The largest declines were in liquid chlorine (down 16.7%), formic acid (down 8.0%), and tetrachloroethylene (down 7.2%) [14][9]. Price Spread Changes - The top three price spread increases this week were MTP spread (up 35.0%), acrylic acid spread (up 33.2%), and BDO spread (up 29.5%). The largest declines were in acrylic acid butyl ester spread (down 710.1%), R410a spread (down 100.0%), and lithium hexafluorophosphate spread (down 20.7%) [19][9]. - Monthly, the top three price spread increases were in styrene (up 192.7%), oil head ethylene glycol spread (up 130.1%), and MTO spread (up 119.6%). The largest declines were in acrylic acid butyl ester spread (down 2675.6%), BDO (phenol method) spread (down 370.9%), and R410a spread (down 100.0%) [19][9]. Investment Recommendations - Recommended companies include: - Wanhua Chemical (600309, Buy): Core product MDI shows recent profit improvement, with upcoming petrochemical and new material projects [17]. - Huangma Technology (603181, Buy): A leading special polyether company that has entered a growth phase again [17]. - Runfeng Co., Ltd. (301035, Buy): A rare company with global formulation registration and sales channels [17]. - Guoguang Co., Ltd. (002749, Buy): A leading domestic differentiated formulation company in the plant growth regulator industry [17]. - Hualu Hengsheng (600426, Buy): Core product price recovery combined with falling coal prices leads to continuous improvement in spreads [17].

Group 1: Company Overview and Product Capacity - The company produces various products with capacities as follows: Special Polyether 19,000 tons/year, Polyether Amine 31,000 tons/year, Alkyl Glycoside 35,000 tons/year, Flame Retardants 34,800 tons/year, Silicone Oil 4,600 tons/year, and Silicone Rubber 8,500 tons/year [2] - The current capacity utilization rate is good, and the company is focused on capturing market opportunities to secure more orders [2] Group 2: Dividend Policy and Historical Performance - Since its listing in 2017, the company has distributed a total of 308 million RMB in dividends, with the total funds raised at 264 million RMB [3] - The dividend payout ratios from 2016 to 2023 have shown a consistent increase: 18%, 19%, 19%, 24%, 44%, 48%, 59%, and 63% respectively [3] - For the 2024 profit distribution, the company plans to distribute 2.00 RMB (including tax) per 10 shares, totaling 43,001,596 RMB [3] Group 3: Share Buyback Plan - The share buyback will commence on May 13, 2025, and will last for 12 months [4] - The company will adhere to information disclosure requirements during the buyback period [4] Group 4: Market Trends and Future Outlook - In the surfactant sector, the company aims to strengthen its product line and enhance quality, maintaining deep cooperation with renowned companies [5] - The flame retardant business is expected to see a slight decline in scale due to oversupply in the domestic market [5] - The organic silicone rubber materials are projected to have a slight increase in gross profit due to leading technology and brand advantages [5] - The market trends for 2025 are expected to follow the development patterns observed in 2024 [5]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive (Maintain)" [6] Core Views - The report highlights that the recent US-China tariff policy has been implemented, leading to a further increase in oil prices. The focus remains on leading companies with strong alpha that are less correlated with oil prices, suggesting a bottom-up investment approach. There is significant uncertainty regarding the US tariff policy, and short-term attention should be on domestic demand and opportunities for domestic substitutes in new materials. The agricultural chemical sector, characterized by rigid demand and dividend attributes, is recommended for investment [13][14]. Summary by Sections 1. Core Views - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on leading companies with strong fundamentals that are less affected by oil price fluctuations. It suggests a bottom-up investment strategy and highlights the agricultural chemical sector as a promising area due to its rigid demand [13]. 2. Oil and Chemical Price Information 2.1 Oil - As of May 16, Brent oil prices increased by 2.3% to $65.41 per barrel. The report notes that while oil prices are rising, the increase in US oil inventories has somewhat restrained the price growth. As of May 9, US commercial oil inventories stood at 441.8 million barrels, with a weekly increase of 3.5 million barrels [14]. 2.2 Chemicals - Among the 188 monitored chemical products, the top three price increases this week were for butadiene (up 21.1%), SBS (up 13.6%), and benzene (up 11.4%). Conversely, the largest declines were seen in liquid chlorine (down 464.3%), natural gas (down 8.1%), and formic acid (down 7.4%). The report attributes the significant rise in butadiene prices to increased downstream demand and supply constraints [15][16]. 3. Investment Recommendations - Recommended companies include: - Wanhua Chemical: Core product MDI shows recent profit improvement, with upcoming petrochemical and new material projects [13]. - Huangma Technology: A leader in specialty polyether, responding positively to previous macro demand pressures [13]. - Runfeng Co., Ltd.: A rare company with global formulation registration and sales channels [13]. - Guoguang Co., Ltd.: A leading domestic differentiated formulation company in the plant growth regulator sector [13]. - Hualu Hengsheng: Core product prices are recovering alongside falling coal prices, leading to improved price differentials [13].