份额向上，需求向下 文：国金宏观宋雪涛/联系人孙永乐 一、美国进口增速转负，中国出口搭东盟和非洲便车 对等关税开启后，美国进口增速从3月的31%大幅下滑至6月的-2.9%，前期"抢进口"带来的透支效应在美国已经出 现。体现在库存数据上，6月美国批发商耐用品库存同比从3月1.6%的年内高点下滑至0.2%，非耐用品库存增速从 4月的4.1%下滑至6月的3.4%。 美国已经进入了去库存周期。 受关税影响，中美直接贸易往来大幅下滑。6月中国对美出口小幅回升，但7月中国对美出口再度转弱，拖累中国 出口同比增速下滑3.3个百分点。 6月美国自中国进口增速同比-44%，后续中美直接贸易往来继续面临下滑压力。 但 东盟和非洲在关税豁免到期之前的"抢出口"，又给了中国出口搭便车的机会。 4-6月美国自东盟进口增速稳定在30%左右。7月越南出口同比17.7%，其中出口机械设备、交通工具零配件、电子 零件同比18%、40.2%、45.2%。这些也是中国对越南出口增速最高的商品。1-6月中国对越南出口机械器具 （HS84）、电气设备（HS85）、汽车运输设备（HS87）同比35.3%、44.9%、41.7%，累计拉动中国对越南出口 ...

Group 1 - Foreign enterprises in China achieved a total import and export value of 6.32 trillion yuan in the first half of the year, marking a year-on-year growth of 2.4% and maintaining growth for five consecutive quarters [1] - Guangdong province, known as the largest foreign trade province in China, has established over 350,000 foreign enterprises with actual foreign investment nearing 600 billion USD [1] - The food and beverage industry in Foshan, Guangdong, is experiencing a surge in "cooling economy" activity, with significant export orders being fulfilled [3] Group 2 - Foreign enterprises are deeply integrated with the Chinese market, contributing to high-quality economic development and benefiting from shared growth dividends [5] - The local government is focused on creating a transparent and predictable customs environment for foreign enterprises, facilitating rapid clearance for imported production equipment and key raw materials [5] - In the first half of the year, foreign enterprises showed strong performance in industrial exports, particularly in specialized equipment, electrical machinery, and electronic devices, with a notable increase in imports of high-end equipment by 3.2% and a 52.1% rise in imported bonded research and development goods [7]