贸易跟踪系列 ➢ 相较于传统对华进口大国，部分低份额非洲国家同样展现出突出的增长潜 力。刚果（布）、几内亚、科特迪瓦、安哥拉等国表现尤为亮眼，年初至今对华进 口增速均显著高于区域平均水平。其中，几内亚以机械、汽车进口为主要拉动力； 刚果（布）、安哥拉则因船舶进口量大幅增长形成新动能，推动各自对华进口快速 攀升。 ➢ 我们认为今年对非洲出口大幅增长背后，有三个重要的催化剂： 出口超预期："最热"非洲有何玄机？ 2025 年 11 月 07 日 ➢ 贸易摩擦的反复冲击下，今年出口的超预期着实令市场惊喜，其中非洲无疑 是最大的边际变量。今年以来，我国对非洲出口"一枝独秀"，不仅出口增速显著 高于东盟、欧盟等主要贸易伙伴，而且对我国出口的拉动从去年微不足道的 0.2% 大幅上升至 1.4%，贡献了约四分之一的出口增长，成为仅次于东盟的第二大出 口拉动。在美国关税"围堵"、全球贸易格局重构的背景下，非洲市场正加速成为 我国出口"突围"新的增长点。 ➢ 那么，对非出口火爆的背后有何玄机，是短期扰动还是趋势？非洲市场还有 多少潜力和空间？我们将在本文中予以回答。 ➢ 非洲国家在买什么？非洲发展潜力与工业短板之间的供需矛盾， ...

Core Insights - The report from ICBC Asia Research analyzes the impact of the US "reciprocal tariff" policy on the economy, focusing on inflation, supply chains, economic data, and policy outlook, while outlining economic signals and future trends in the US economy [1][2] Inflation and Price Transmission - As of August, the PPI decreased to 2.6% year-on-year, while the CPI increased to 2.9%, indicating a clearer transmission of inflation effects from tariffs [2][12] - The core goods contributed a 0.4% increase to the CPI, with furniture and transportation products leading the price hikes [2][12] - The inflationary impact is expected to become more pronounced in the fourth quarter as inventory buffers are depleted and companies gradually pass on costs [2][12] Economic Data and Trends - Economic resilience was supported by non-residential investment and consumer behavior, with GDP growth exceeding 1.5% in Q1 and Q2 when excluding tariff disruptions [2][19] - However, there are increasing downward risks as tariff effects become evident, potentially leading to reduced production and consumption [2][19] Policy and Financial Market Outlook - The Federal Reserve is likely to implement interest rate cuts in September, facing challenges from economic downturns, high inflation, and policy pressures [2][6] - The US dollar index is expected to trend downward, while the yield curve for US Treasury bonds will exhibit a "bull steepening" characteristic due to conflicting economic signals [2][6] Supply Chain and Inventory Dynamics - Tariff expectations have heightened inventory motivations across supply chains, leading to a temporary "prosperity illusion" in supply-side data [6][19] - Increased imports and production of durable goods have somewhat mitigated the impact of tariffs on end prices, with durable goods shipments rising by 3.1% in the first seven months of 2025 compared to the same period in 2024 [2][33] Consumer Behavior and Confidence - Consumer confidence has declined, with rising concerns about price increases leading to preemptive stockpiling of goods [2][26] - Retail sales in categories such as motor vehicles and furniture have shown significant growth, reflecting consumer behavior in response to tariff expectations [2][27]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the high-tech manufacturing industry is experiencing a significant upturn in its economic performance, with growth momentum shifting from external demand to internal demand since 2023 [2][10][28] - The EPMI index has shown a greater rebound compared to the PMI index, indicating an improvement in the economic climate for emerging industries [2][10] - The added value of high-tech manufacturing has increased significantly in 2023, contributing to GDP growth, with a year-on-year increase of 8.6% in the first half of 2025, which is expected to drive GDP growth by 2.3% [2][10] Group 2 - The profitability of high-tech manufacturing has shown greater resilience compared to other industries, primarily due to a higher profit margin that exceeds other manufacturing sectors by approximately 2 percentage points [4][33] - The profit margin for high-tech manufacturing was recorded at 6.5% in July 2025, while other industries were at 4.3% [4][33] - High-tech manufacturing has maintained a lower cost rate, approximately 5 percentage points lower than other manufacturing sectors, which supports its profit margin [4][43] Group 3 - The improvement in profitability within high-tech manufacturing is expected to have a direct impact on the labor market, leading to increased employment in this sector [6][67] - Employment growth in high-tech manufacturing is projected to rebound to 0.9% by 2025, contrasting with negative growth in other manufacturing sectors [6][67] - Higher wages in high-tech manufacturing are anticipated to boost household income, with average annual salary growth in sectors like electrical machinery and computer communications reaching 14.9% and 12%, respectively, from 2019 to 2024 [8][72]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the decline in U.S. import growth and the impact of tariffs on trade dynamics, particularly between the U.S. and China, while China is leveraging opportunities in ASEAN and Africa for exports [1][2][3] - U.S. import growth dropped from 31% in March to -2.9% in June, indicating a shift towards destocking, with wholesale inventories showing a significant decline [1] - China's exports to the U.S. faced a sharp decline, with a 44% drop in June, and subsequent months showing continued weakness, affecting overall export growth [1][2] Group 2 - Despite the decline in U.S. imports, ASEAN and Africa provided opportunities for China, with U.S. imports from ASEAN remaining stable at around 30% growth from April to June [2] - China's exports to Vietnam and Africa saw significant increases, with Vietnam's exports to the U.S. growing by 17.7% in July and China's exports to Africa increasing by 42.8% [2] - The upcoming increase in tariffs on ASEAN countries may pressure China's re-export trade, indicating a potential shift in trade dynamics [3] Group 3 - China's exports to the EU showed resilience, with a 9.2% year-on-year increase in July, driven by competitive advantages and a stable European economy [7][8] - The EU's economic indicators suggest a stable demand environment, which may support continued growth in Chinese exports to the region [8] - China's overall export share has increased, with significant growth in capital goods exports to Africa and the EU, reflecting an upward trend in competitive positioning [10] Group 4 - The article notes that the demand side is facing downward pressure, which may lead to a decline in exports, despite some competitive advantages [10][12] - The impact of tariffs has been severe, with a dramatic drop in China's exports to the U.S. following the imposition of new tariffs, indicating a potential cliff effect in trade [11] - Future export data, particularly in August, will be critical for assessing the ongoing impact of these trade dynamics [12]

Group 1 - Foreign enterprises in China achieved a total import and export value of 6.32 trillion yuan in the first half of the year, marking a year-on-year growth of 2.4% and maintaining growth for five consecutive quarters [1] - Guangdong province, known as the largest foreign trade province in China, has established over 350,000 foreign enterprises with actual foreign investment nearing 600 billion USD [1] - The food and beverage industry in Foshan, Guangdong, is experiencing a surge in "cooling economy" activity, with significant export orders being fulfilled [3] Group 2 - Foreign enterprises are deeply integrated with the Chinese market, contributing to high-quality economic development and benefiting from shared growth dividends [5] - The local government is focused on creating a transparent and predictable customs environment for foreign enterprises, facilitating rapid clearance for imported production equipment and key raw materials [5] - In the first half of the year, foreign enterprises showed strong performance in industrial exports, particularly in specialized equipment, electrical machinery, and electronic devices, with a notable increase in imports of high-end equipment by 3.2% and a 52.1% rise in imported bonded research and development goods [7]