有色金属 | 证券研究报告 — 调整盈利预测 2025 年 11 月 10 日 603799.SH 增持 原评级：增持 市场价格:人民币 64.34 板块评级:强于大市 股价表现 (%) 今年 至今 1 个月 3 个月 12 个月 绝对 126.5 (2.4) 50.3 79.0 相对上证综指 103.9 (5.3) 40.5 63.8 (23%) 1% 26% 50% 74% 99% Nov-24 Dec-24 Jan-25 Feb-25 Mar-25 Apr-25 May-25 Jun-25 Jul-25 Sep-25 Oct-25 Nov-25 华友钴业 上证综指 | 发行股数 (百万) | 1,896.10 | | --- | --- | | 流通股 (百万) | 1,884.08 | | 总市值 (人民币 百万) | 121,994.90 | | 3 个月日均交易额 (人民币 百万) | 5,352.74 | | 主要股东 | | | 华友控股集团有限公司 | 16.25% | 资料来源：公司公告， Wind ，中银证券 以 2025 年 11 月 7 日收市价为标准 相关研究报告 《华友钴业》20 ...

Industry Overview - In the first 19 days of October, the retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles in China reached 632,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 5% and a month-on-month increase of 2%, with a retail penetration rate of 56.1% [1] - The wholesale volume of new energy passenger vehicles during the same period was 676,000 units, showing a year-on-year growth of 6% and a month-on-month growth of 5%, with a wholesale penetration rate of 58.5% [1] - Cumulatively, from January to October 19, the retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles reached 9.502 million units, a year-on-year increase of 23%, while wholesale reached 11.123 million units, a year-on-year increase of 30% [1] Production and Sales Growth - In September, the production of new energy vehicles reached 1.58 million units, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 20.3% [2] - For the first nine months of the year, production and sales of new energy vehicles in China reached 11.243 million and 11.228 million units respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 35.2% and 34.9% [2] - New energy vehicle sales accounted for 46.1% of total new car sales in China [2] Supply Chain Developments - Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co., Ltd. signed a supply agreement with LG Energy Solution for the supply of 76,000 tons of ternary precursor products from 2026 to 2030 [3] - Huayou Cobalt's subsidiary in Hungary is expected to supply 88,000 tons of ternary cathode materials to LGES and its Polish factory during the same period [3] Industry Expansion and Innovation - Ningbo Ronbay New Energy Technology Co., Ltd. is accelerating its industrialization process, with plans for a 6,000-ton annual precursor production line in South Korea and a 25,000-ton ternary cathode capacity in Poland expected to be operational by mid-next year [4] - The expansion of the new energy vehicle industry and technological innovations are expected to drive growth in the upstream battery materials sector [4] - Solid-state battery safety breakthroughs are a focus for several battery material companies, with advancements reported by Wanxiang Qianchao Co., Ltd. [4] Strategic Recommendations - New energy vehicle companies are advised to focus on technological innovation, business expansion, and strategic collaboration to enhance high-quality development [5] - Emphasis should be placed on key technological breakthroughs, expanding into emerging sectors like fast charging and smart chassis, and forming industry alliances to improve competitive advantages [5]

Core Viewpoint - Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co., Ltd. reported record high revenues and net profits for the first three quarters of 2025, driven by rising cobalt prices and stable supply from various sources [2]. Financial Performance - The company achieved operating revenue of 58.941 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 29.57% [2]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 4.216 billion yuan, up 39.59% year-on-year, marking a historical high for the company [2]. Market Dynamics - The lifting of the cobalt export ban in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) has shifted to an export quota system, leading to a significant increase in cobalt prices [2]. - Cobalt prices rose from 169,000 yuan per ton at the beginning of 2025 to between 367,000 and 390,000 yuan per ton as of October 17, 2025, indicating a general supply shortage in the cobalt market [2]. Supply Chain and Production Capacity - The company maintains stable supply chains despite changes in DRC's export policies, with long-term contracts being fulfilled as planned [2]. - Huayou Cobalt is set to launch a new project in 2026 with an annual production capacity of 120,000 tons of nickel-cobalt hydroxide, which will enhance its cobalt raw material capacity [2]. Strategic Partnerships - Huayou Cobalt signed a significant supply agreement with LG Energy Solution, committing to supply approximately 76,000 tons of ternary precursor products from 2026 to 2030 [3]. - Additionally, a basic procurement contract was established with LGES for the sale of 88,000 tons of battery ternary cathode materials over the same period, strengthening the strategic partnership [4].

Core Insights - The report highlights the robust growth and diversification of the cultural and tourism industry, with the cultural industry expected to achieve a revenue of 19.14 trillion yuan in 2024, a 37.7% increase from 2020 [3] - The report emphasizes the strategic partnerships and expansions in the mining sector, particularly focusing on the lithium, cesium, and copper resources, which are expected to enhance the company's growth potential [6][7][9] - The semiconductor testing sector is experiencing rapid growth, with significant orders and revenue increases, indicating a strong market demand for advanced testing equipment [14][18] Economic Policies and Developments - The National Development and Reform Commission announced a new policy tool with a total scale of 500 billion yuan to support project capital, particularly in AI and smart terminal applications [2] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has granted satellite mobile communication licenses to major telecom operators, enhancing communication capabilities in remote areas [2] - The Ministry of Culture and Tourism reported a significant recovery in the tourism sector, with domestic travel and spending showing high growth rates post-pandemic [3] Company-Specific Developments - Zhongwei Co. signed a strategic cooperation framework agreement with Xiamen Tungsten New Energy Materials, focusing on key battery materials for emerging sectors [5] - Huayou Cobalt's subsidiary signed a supply agreement with LGES for a total of approximately 76,000 tons of ternary precursor products from 2026 to 2030 [5] - The report indicates that the company has successfully acquired significant mining rights in Zambia and Namibia, enhancing its resource base and production capabilities [8][9] Industry Trends - The report notes a shift in the highway sector towards high dividend stocks, with several companies experiencing significant stock price adjustments, making them attractive for investors seeking stable returns [21][22] - The semiconductor testing equipment market is expanding rapidly, driven by demand from the AI and storage sectors, with the company achieving substantial revenue growth in this area [14][15][18] - The mining industry is diversifying into multi-metal resources, with a focus on copper and other metals, which are expected to provide new growth avenues for the company [9][10]

Group 1: Battery Industry Developments - Yiwei Lithium Energy has secured overseas energy storage orders, including a strategic cooperation with TSL Assembly for a total scale of 1GWh in Central and Eastern Europe from 2026 to 2030, and a 500MWh agreement with CommVOLT to promote energy transition in Europe [2][2] - Chuangneng New Energy signed an investment agreement with the Xiangyang Municipal Government for a lithium battery industrial park with an annual production capacity of 70GWh, focusing on energy storage batteries and power batteries [2] - Zhaoke Energy announced the completion of angel round financing, which will help expand production capacity and enhance technological advantages in large cylindrical lithium batteries [5][6] Group 2: Material Supply Chain and Strategic Partnerships - Xiamen Tungsten New Energy signed a strategic cooperation framework agreement with Zhongwei Co., focusing on the supply chain for lithium battery materials and joint development of high-quality mineral resources [7] - Huayou Cobalt signed long-term supply agreements with LGES for a total of approximately 16.4 million tons of ternary precursor and cathode materials from 2026 to 2030, which is expected to positively impact the company's performance during this period [11][12] Group 3: Corporate Control and Financial Performance - Fengyuan Co. announced a 30 million yuan acquisition of a 3.32% minority stake in its subsidiary Anhui Fengyuan, consolidating control over the company [8][10] - Yinglian Co. expects a significant increase in net profit for the first three quarters of 2025, projecting revenue between 1.63 billion to 1.65 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 9.49% to 10.83%, and a net profit increase of 1531.13% to 1672.97% [12]

Group 1 - Argentina's Cauchari-Olaroz salt lake project plans to increase lithium production to 85,000 tons annually by 2029, more than doubling the 25,000 tons expected in 2024 [1] - The new joint venture between Argentina Lithium and Ganfeng Lithium aims for a total annual production capacity of 150,000 tons, with construction expected to start in 2026 [1] - Brazil is forming a multi-stakeholder committee to develop national mining policies, focusing on the mining sector which has been overshadowed by energy sectors in recent years [2] Group 2 - Indonesia's President Prabowo Subianto ordered the closure of 1,000 illegal tin mines in Bangka Belitung, aiming to recover significant lost revenue and cut off 80% of smuggled tin exports [3] - Arconic's new high-purity aluminum facility is set to begin operations on October 1, with production expected to exceed 90 million pounds [4] - Argentina approved McEwen Copper's $2.7 billion Los Azules copper project, which will benefit from tax incentives under the country's RIGI program [6] Group 3 - Japan's JX Advanced Metals plans to invest 7 billion yen ($47 million) to enhance its recycling pre-treatment capabilities, aiming for a 50% increase in processing capacity by 2027 [7] - MinRes signed a binding agreement to acquire assets from RDG, including the Lucky Bay garnet mine, following RDG's restructuring [8] - Northern Dynasty Minerals received $12 million to advance its Pebble copper/gold project in Alaska, with total funding from a royalty financing agreement reaching $48 million [9] Group 4 - American Lithium increased its investment in the Falchani lithium project in Peru to $847 million, following a favorable court ruling [10] - The Franklin lithium project in Texas revealed a resource estimate of 2.159 million tons of lithium equivalent, indicating significant development potential [11] - China's Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued a plan for the non-ferrous metals industry, targeting an average annual growth of 5% in value-added output from 2025 to 2026 [12] Group 5 - The 2025 China International Copper Forum was held, focusing on building value co-creation ecosystems in the copper industry [13] - The 18th National Nonferrous Metals Industry Skills Competition was held, showcasing advancements in the sector [14] - A seminar on corporate culture in the nonferrous metals industry was conducted, emphasizing high-quality development [16] Group 6 - A lithium battery recycling project in Zhangjiakou, Hebei, aims for an annual processing capacity of 50,000 tons, marking a significant development in the battery recycling sector [17] - Yunnan's Jinpo lead-zinc mine received a new mining license valid until 2034, allowing continued operations [18] - A strategic cooperation agreement was signed between China Railway and Ashapura for bauxite mining in Guinea, focusing on sustainable development and local economic growth [19][20] Group 7 - Huayou Cobalt's subsidiary signed a supply agreement with LGES for 76,000 tons of ternary precursor products from 2026 to 2030 [21] - Jiangxi Jiazhe plans to invest 620 million yuan in a project to produce 180,000 tons of non-ferrous metal deep processing products annually [22] - Salt Lake Co. has begun trial production of a 40,000-ton lithium salt project, enhancing its market competitiveness [23] Group 8 - New Zobang's lithium hexafluorophosphate production capacity is expected to reach 36,000 tons by the end of 2025 following technical upgrades [24] - Tianqi Lithium's 30,000-ton battery-grade lithium hydroxide project has been completed in Jiangsu, marking a significant milestone in its five-year strategic plan [25] - Chongqing aims for a 90% coverage rate of battery recycling networks by 2027, promoting sustainable practices in the industry [26] Group 9 - A new group standard for high-performance aluminum electronic foil was released, enhancing industry quality and technological standards [27] - The Lanzhou New Area high-precision aluminum plate and foil project has commenced, with an investment of approximately 2.499 billion yuan [28] - Ningbo Haicui's aluminum alloy smart door and window project has successfully launched, contributing to the company's digital transformation [30] Group 10 - The Suining Tianna Energy project is undergoing renovations, with a total investment of 5.8 billion yuan aimed at producing sodium battery materials [31] - An 800 million yuan new energy battery project has been signed in Liaoning, indicating growth in the sector [32] - A high-precision aluminum processing project was signed in Inner Mongolia, focusing on enhancing value-added production [33]

Group 1 - The rare metals sector is experiencing strong growth, with Huayou Cobalt leading the gains, and rare metals ETFs rising over 3% [1] - Rare metals ETFs have shown significant performance, with year-to-date increases of 62.84% to 65.59% across various funds [2] - Huayou Cobalt has signed supply agreements with LGES for a total of approximately 76,000 tons of ternary precursor products and 88,000 tons of ternary materials from 2026 to 2030, which is expected to positively impact its financial performance [3][4] Group 2 - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other departments have released a plan to promote the application of high-end products in emerging industries, which may benefit the rare metals sector [4] - Zhongyou Securities is optimistic about the performance of precious metals, copper, aluminum, lithium, and uranium, indicating a favorable outlook for the rare metals market [5] - The cobalt market is expected to remain tight in the long term, with prices of intermediate products projected to rise gradually [6]

Group 1 - Huayou Cobalt's subsidiary signed a supply agreement with LGES for 76,000 tons of ternary precursor products from 2026 to 2030, and another contract for 88,000 tons of ternary cathode materials, indicating a significant long-term partnership [1] - The collaboration between Huayou Cobalt and LGES highlights the strategic importance of Chinese material companies in the global supply chain and LGES's strategy to secure upstream resources to enhance global competitiveness [1] - The expected increase in demand for electric vehicles and energy storage solutions is likely to benefit such deep collaborations, potentially leading to growth opportunities [1] Group 2 - Fulin Precision plans to jointly increase capital in its subsidiary Jiangxi Shenghua with CATL, with Fulin investing 1 billion yuan and CATL investing 2.563 billion yuan, resulting in CATL holding a 51% stake [2] - This capital increase is a typical case of deep integration of technology and capital in the power battery industry, allowing CATL to secure core production capacity while Fulin accelerates its technological upgrades and international expansion [2] - The impact of Jiangxi Shenghua's financial performance on Fulin Precision needs to be monitored in the short term, while long-term success will depend on collaboration in new fields like robotics [2] Group 3 - Tianji Co. is advancing the industrialization of its lithium sulfide material preparation patent, with approximately 5 million yuan invested in R&D and a team of 7 researchers [3] - The project has passed initial small-scale tests, but further scaling and cost analysis are required before moving to pilot testing, indicating the early stage of development [3] - Despite the promising market for solid-state batteries, Tianji faces challenges in technology transfer, cost optimization, and shareholder dynamics, which may limit short-term contributions to performance [3]

Group 1 - The National Development and Reform Commission announced a new policy financial tool with a total scale of 500 billion yuan, all allocated to supplement project capital [1][2] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and five other departments released the "Mechanical Industry Stabilization Growth Work Plan (2025-2026)", aiming for an average annual revenue growth rate of about 3.5% and total revenue exceeding 10 trillion yuan by 2026 [2] - In 2024, China's cultural industry is projected to achieve a revenue of 19.14 trillion yuan, a 37.7% increase compared to 2020 [2] Group 2 - The DeepSeek-V3.2-Exp model was officially released, reducing the cost of using the DeepSeek API by over 50% [3] - The total net subscription amount for multiple broad-based equity ETFs reached 22.2 billion yuan on September 26, marking a new high in over five months [3] Group 3 - The securities industry is expected to continue its high growth in Q3, with 42 listed securities firms reporting a total revenue of 251.87 billion yuan in the first half of the year, a year-on-year increase of 11.37% [5] - The average annual revenue growth rate for the securities industry is anticipated to further increase due to the active stock market and low base effects [5] Group 4 - OpenAI's upcoming developer conference on October 6 is expected to focus on the application of AI technology in hardware, potentially boosting the consumer electronics supply chain [7] - The demand for lithium batteries is surging, with production expected to grow by 10% month-on-month in October, leading to a projected annual demand growth rate exceeding 35% [8] Group 5 - China CNR Corporation announced that its total contract amount for Q3 exceeded 50 billion yuan, with significant contracts signed for various types of vehicles [9] - Huayou Cobalt signed a major supply agreement with LGES for a total of 76,000 tons of ternary precursor products from 2026 to 2030 [10] Group 6 - Tianqi Lithium received significant institutional buying, with two institutions purchasing a total of 221 million yuan worth of shares, driven by strong growth in its electrolyte business [16] - GF Securities saw institutional buying of 254 million yuan, reflecting positive performance in its brokerage and asset management businesses [17]

Core Viewpoint - Huayou Cobalt (603799.SH) has signed significant supply agreements with LGES for the provision of ternary precursor products and ternary cathode materials, which are expected to positively impact the company's performance from 2026 to 2030 [1] Group 1: Agreements and Supply Details - Huayou Cobalt's subsidiary, Quzhou New Energy, will supply approximately 76,000 tons of ternary precursor products to LGES and its designated purchasers from 2026 to 2030 [1] - The subsidiary Chengdu Bamo and Hungary Bamo will supply a total of approximately 88,000 tons of battery ternary cathode materials to LGES and its Polish factory during the same period [1] Group 2: Financial Impact - The contracts signed will not have a significant impact on the current period, but are expected to positively influence the company's operating performance from 2026 to 2030 [1] - Revenue recognition will depend on specific order conditions and accounting principles, subject to final audit by the accounting firm [1]