当前时点地产近况更新和产业链投资机会梳理 20251120 摘要 房地产市场持续承压，1-10 月全国房产累计销量和金额分别同比下降 7%和 10%，投资和施工端压力加剧，新开工面积和拿地面积较峰值时 下跌约 70%，房价下跌 35%以上，市场处于加速寻底状态。 核心城市房价快速下跌或难持续，一线城市房价调整对居民资产端冲击 显著，目前更可能是情绪化的快速出清阶段，以上海为例，2026 年初 五年限售解禁期或带来一定下跌，但总体上距离周期底部已经不远。 政策层面，核心城市房价走弱或促使未来政策力度加大，全国层面新增 个人住房贷款贴息政策或在评估中，提高个人住房贷款利息所得税专项 扣除、进一步下调住房交易契税等政策也在酝酿中。 建材行业需关注顶层持续关注并琢磨支持政策，优秀上市公司将先于行 业见底，随着地产救市措施逐步落实，有望带动整体市场回暖，三棵树 等企业虽优于行业平均水平，但整体市场环境仍充满挑战。 大类资产配置应关注低位有边际变化或赔率较高的板块，如地产链，同 时需谨慎考虑结构性流动性担忧问题，海螺水泥因国内地产及供需关系 处于低位，有较好的配置价值，重视反内卷政策可能带来的供给侧改革 机会。 Q&A ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance relative to the market index [3][6]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 14.996 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 30.1%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.415 billion yuan, up 30.9% year-on-year [1]. - The company has shown resilience in its operations despite tariff disruptions, with a significant increase in operating cash flow by 42.8% year-on-year [1]. - The growth in revenue is driven by the recovery in exports of both four-wheeled and two-wheeled vehicles, alongside a substantial increase in sales of electric models [2]. Financial Performance Summary - For Q3 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 5.041 billion yuan, a 28.6% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 413 million yuan, reflecting an 11.0% growth [1]. - The gross margin for Q3 was reported at 26.14%, a decrease of 4.71 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to increased tariff costs and the rise in low-margin electric vehicle sales [5]. - The company has established production bases in multiple locations, including Mexico and Thailand, to mitigate tariff impacts and enhance supply chain flexibility [5]. Growth Projections - The company expects to achieve a net profit of 1.75 billion yuan in 2025, with projections of 2.48 billion yuan and 3.09 billion yuan for 2026 and 2027, respectively [6][7]. - Revenue is projected to grow from 19.76 billion yuan in 2025 to 29.66 billion yuan by 2027, with corresponding growth rates of 31.4% and 18.5% [7][12]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to increase from 11.46 yuan in 2025 to 20.25 yuan in 2027 [7][12].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" investment rating for the company [3][5]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 6.7 billion yuan in Q3, representing a year-on-year growth of 57%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 550 million yuan, up 46% year-on-year [1][5]. - The company is expected to continue its strong growth trajectory, with projected net profits of 2.1 billion yuan, 2.8 billion yuan, and 3.7 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [5]. - The report highlights significant growth in various product segments, including a 59% increase in two-wheeler sales and a doubling of revenue from lawnmowers [5]. Financial Data and Valuation - The total revenue for 2023 is projected at 10.22 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 1%, and is expected to reach 35.24 billion yuan by 2027, with a growth rate of 31% [2][12]. - The company's earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to increase from 0.83 yuan in 2023 to 5.18 yuan in 2027, reflecting a strong growth outlook [2][13]. - The price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is expected to decrease from 78.5 in 2023 to 12.6 in 2027, indicating improving valuation metrics as earnings grow [2][13]. Product Performance - The two-wheeler segment achieved sales of 1.49 million units in Q3, with revenue of 4.5 billion yuan, marking a 72% increase year-on-year [5]. - The lawnmower business continues to show strong growth, contributing 660 million yuan in revenue, up 36% year-on-year, with flagship products achieving double the average industry efficiency [5]. - The company is enhancing its brand presence through marketing initiatives, including a sci-fi short film that garnered over 74 million views on social media [5].

Group 1: Company Insights - 九号公司 - The company continues to see growth in two-wheeled vehicle sales, achieving a revenue of RMB 183.9 billion in the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 68.6% [1] - In Q3 2025, the company reported a revenue of RMB 66.5 billion, up 56.8% year-on-year, with two-wheeled vehicle revenue at RMB 44.54 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of approximately 72% [1][2] - The average selling price of two-wheeled vehicles was RMB 2,996, showing a year-on-year increase of about 8% [1][2] - The company maintains a positive outlook on product synergy and has raised its store target, indicating optimistic growth prospects [2] Group 2: Company Insights - 亿纬锂能 - The company reported a revenue of RMB 168.3 billion in Q3 2025, a year-on-year increase of 35.8%, with energy storage and power battery shipments at 19.7 GWh and 13.1 GWh respectively [3][4] - The company maintains its annual shipment target of 130 GWh, with energy storage and power battery shipments expected to be approximately 80 GWh and 50 GWh respectively [3] Group 3: Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, the gross profit margin for the company was 29.0%, with a year-on-year increase of 0.5 percentage points but a quarter-on-quarter decline of 1.9 percentage points due to seasonal factors [2] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for Q3 2025 was RMB 5.5 billion, a year-on-year increase of 46%, while the net profit margin was 8.2%, down 0.6 percentage points year-on-year [2][4] - The company expects an improvement in profitability in Q4 2025 due to price increases for batteries [4][7] Group 4: Industry Insights - Technology Sector - The technology sector is expected to receive increased policy support during the "15th Five-Year Plan" period, with a focus on high-level technological self-reliance and innovation [10][11] - Investment opportunities are anticipated in key areas such as artificial intelligence, semiconductor manufacturing, and new communication technologies [11][12]

Core Viewpoint - The company, Tongxing Technology, is actively developing sodium-ion battery materials with a wide range of applications in energy storage and various power supply products [1] Group 1: Product Development - The sodium-ion battery materials are suitable for energy storage, start-stop power sources, UPS power supplies, low-speed electric vehicles, and two-wheeled vehicles [1] - A general-purpose NFPP has successfully completed the trial production of a 50Ah short blade cell in a third-party laboratory, demonstrating high pressure density and excellent processing performance [1] Group 2: Market Strategy - The company plans to accelerate the verification of energy storage scenarios and expand its market outreach [1]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 6.65 billion yuan in Q3 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 56.8%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 550 million yuan, up 46%, while the net profit excluding non-recurring items was 490 million yuan, an increase of 37% [6] - The revenue growth was driven by seasonal factors and the impact of expense provisions for lawnmowers. The long-term outlook for the two-wheeled vehicle segment remains positive due to channel optimization and sales performance [6][8] - The company expects to maintain double-digit growth in operating profit for two-wheeled vehicles, supported by increasing brand presence and new product introductions [6][8] Revenue Breakdown - Revenue from two-wheeled vehicles reached 4.5 billion yuan, up 72%, with sales of 1.49 million units, a 59% increase. The average price was 2,996 yuan, an 8% increase [6] - Retail scooter revenue was 1 billion yuan, up 38%, with sales of 420,000 units, a 16% increase. The average price was 2,288 yuan, up 19% [6] - Revenue from ToB channels was 200 million yuan, up 17%, while all-terrain vehicle revenue was 330 million yuan, up 27% [6] Financial Performance - The gross margin for Q3 2025 was 29.0%, an increase of 1.9 percentage points year-on-year. The expense ratio was 19.6%, up 2.6 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to increased sales, management, and R&D expenses [7] - The net profit margin for Q3 2025 was 8.2%, down 0.6 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin excluding non-recurring items was 7.3%, down 1.1 percentage points [7] Long-term Growth Potential - The two-wheeled vehicle segment is expected to continue showing profit elasticity, with anticipated high growth in Q1 2026 due to new product launches and inventory reduction [8] - The lawnmower segment is projected to maintain high growth, supported by a broad offline channel layout and stable product performance [8] Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 20.18 billion yuan, 28.04 billion yuan, and 37.58 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 28.13 yuan, 39.10 yuan, and 51.39 yuan [6][9]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance in the near term [5]. Core Insights - The company, Ninebot, is a leading global player in the smart short-distance transportation and service robotics sectors, with a mission to simplify the movement of people and goods [5]. - In 2024, the company is projected to achieve a revenue of 14.2 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 38.9%, and a net profit of 1.1 billion yuan, reflecting a significant increase of 81.3% [8]. - The company has a strong competitive advantage due to its technological capabilities and established overseas brand presence, particularly after acquiring Segway in 2015 [6]. Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, Ninebot reported a revenue of 11.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 76.1%, and a net profit of 1.3 billion yuan, up 125.3% [5]. - The company's electric two-wheeled vehicles generated a revenue of 6.8 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, marking a 101.7% increase and accounting for 58.1% of total revenue [6]. - The revenue from the company's new business segments, including all-terrain vehicles and robotic lawn mowers, is expected to grow significantly, with the lawn mower segment projected to reach 860 million yuan in 2024, a staggering increase of 284% [7]. Growth Projections - The company anticipates a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 24.0% for revenue and 113.6% for net profit from 2020 to 2024 [5]. - The forecasted net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 2.0 billion yuan, 2.6 billion yuan, and 3.6 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding growth rates of 85.8%, 30.5%, and 36.9% [7]. Valuation Metrics - As of October 17, 2025, the price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios are projected to be 22, 17, and 13 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [7]. - The report highlights the company's strong market position and growth potential compared to peers such as Stone Technology and Aima Technology [7].

Core Viewpoint - The report from Everbright Securities highlights a significant increase in the sales volume of Ninebot's two-wheeler segment from 2020 to 2025, with strong brand momentum and improving profit margins [1] Sales Performance - Projected sales volumes for 2024 and the first half of 2025 are 2.6 million and 2.39 million units respectively, representing year-on-year growth of 77% and 100% [1] - The company is expected to maintain a leading position in the industry regarding sales performance [1] Profitability - Gross margins are anticipated to rise due to scale effects and product structure optimization, with expected margins of 21.1% and 23.7% for 2024 and the first half of 2025 respectively [1] - This positions the company favorably within the industry [1] Strategic Focus - Ninebot is concentrating on short-distance transportation and robotics, demonstrating high efficiency in R&D investment and commercialization [1] - The company's internationalization and diversification strategies are expected to ensure growth opportunities [1] Financial Forecast - The forecast for Ninebot's net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025, 2026, and 2027 is projected at 2 billion, 2.7 billion, and 3.5 billion yuan respectively [1] - The current price corresponds to a price-to-earnings ratio of 23, 18, and 14 times for the respective years [1] - The rating for the company is maintained at "Buy" [1]

Core Viewpoint - The first Morocco Electric Vehicle and Energy Storage Exhibition will be held from November 19 to 22 in Casablanca, focusing on "Electric Mobility in Africa" and aiming to create an important international platform for technological innovation and energy transition in the African transportation sector [1] Group 1: Event Details - The exhibition will feature over 150 exhibitors from more than ten countries across China, Morocco, and Europe, Asia, and Africa [1] - The event will cover the entire industry chain of electric vehicles, two-wheelers, charging stations, batteries, and energy storage equipment [1] - High-level international seminars, B2B matchmaking events, and outdoor test drives of electric vehicles will also take place during the exhibition [1] Group 2: Industry Significance - Electric vehicles are seen as a key solution to address challenges in traditional transportation, attract foreign investment, and create jobs [1] - The exhibition aims to solidify Morocco's position as a leading industrial technology center in Africa, particularly in the field of electric and sustainable mobility [1] - The event will also provide a platform for Moroccan youth entrepreneurs and promote collaboration between Moroccan vocational colleges and Chinese institutions in electric vehicle technology talent development [1]

Group 1 - The report highlights a stable performance in the home appliance industry, with a focus on the support for domestic demand through policies and the potential turning point in exports [5][6] - White goods are expected to maintain strong sales momentum, supported by the third batch of subsidies for trade-in programs, with leading companies like Midea Group, Haier Smart Home, Hisense Home Appliances, and Gree Electric showing robust financial performance [7][8] - The black goods segment benefits from domestic trade-in policies, with a steady increase in average prices and a projected stable growth in the global market size by 2025, recommending Hisense Visual and TCL Electronics as key players [7][8] Group 2 - The report indicates that the two-wheeler market will see accelerated growth due to national subsidies, with leading companies like Yadea Holdings expected to outperform the industry significantly [7] - The post-cycle segment shows improved operations, with a narrowing decline due to supportive policies in real estate, recommending companies like Robam Appliances and Vatti Corporation for investment [7] - The small appliance sector is experiencing a turnaround, with expectations for improved demand and market dynamics by 2025, highlighting companies like Ecovacs Robotics and Supor as potential investment opportunities [7] Group 3 - The report provides a market review for August, noting that the home appliance index increased by 4.73%, although it underperformed compared to the broader market indices [16][17] - The relative valuation of the home appliance sector is at a low point, with a PE ratio of 14.14 times, indicating potential investment value [17][18] - Key data tracking shows fluctuations in commodity prices, with copper and aluminum prices increasing year-on-year, while shipping rates have decreased [22][24]