Core Insights - The report highlights a "contraction" in commodity markets, with a focus on the differentiated performance of long-end bonds in the debt market [3][4] - Recent macro data has shown positive trends, with social financing and export figures exceeding expectations, indicating a recovery in economic sentiment [3][4] - The report notes a significant increase in foreign exchange settlements, reaching the highest monthly value since 2014, driven by strong export growth and expectations of RMB appreciation [3][4] Commodity Market Analysis - Commodity prices have cooled down recently, with a notable "contraction" in market activity, particularly in the precious and non-ferrous metals sectors [3][4] - The South China Commodity Index has risen by 3.7%, with precious metals and non-ferrous metals leading the gains, while energy, black metals, and agricultural products have shown weaker performance [3][4] - The report identifies a divergence in the performance of different metal categories, with precious metals outperforming non-ferrous and black metals [4] Debt Market Insights - The debt market is currently in a relatively balanced range, with 30-year government bond yields around 2.3% and 10-year yields returning to the central bank's target range of approximately 1.85% [4][5] - There is limited room for further declines in short-term bond yields, as market participants shift from a bearish to a more neutral stance [5] - The report suggests that the recent buying activity from major banks, particularly in the 7-10 year maturity range, is providing crucial support for current interest rates [5] Investment Strategies - The report recommends focusing on high-odds, trading-oriented small metals and silver if risk preferences shift, while suggesting a focus on high-probability copper and aluminum if conditions remain stable [4][5] - The performance of perpetual bonds and secondary capital bonds is highlighted as a key area to watch, with strong buying interest from specific investor segments [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - This week's macro data is positive. Social financing and export data both exceeded expectations, and the settlement and sale of foreign exchange reached a new high for a single month in the past 10 years. The improvement in corporate credit and strong export performance indicate an economic recovery. The commodity market has cooled down, and the bond market has entered a relatively balanced range [1][2][3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro Data Continued to Improve, Corporate Credit Improved, and Exports Were Strong - In December 2025, the social financing growth rate was higher than expected, with loan components providing support and a significant improvement in corporate credit. New social financing in December was 22,080 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 8.30%. Corporate short-term loans were stronger than seasonal trends, and medium- and long-term loans improved year-on-year [9] - Exports in December increased by 6.6% year-on-year, and the full-year increase was 5.5%, both significantly exceeding market expectations. The settlement and sale of foreign exchange surplus in December reached the highest level for a single month since 2014, at 999.3 billion US dollars [2][9] - Historically, exchange rate appreciation is relatively beneficial to domestic assets. The central bank emphasized "preventing overshoot risks" in its recent statements [2][10] Commodity Market Pulled Back, and the Range of Rising Commodities "Narrowed" - Since the beginning of the year, commodities and equities have emerged in resonance, led by precious metals and non-ferrous metals. The Nanhua Commodity Index has risen by 3.7%. The market is mainly driven by geopolitical uncertainties and optimistic expectations for metals. The strength order is precious metals > non-ferrous metals > black metals > agricultural products > energy and chemicals [3][12] - After the Shanghai Stock Exchange raised the margin ratio for margin trading and the exchange introduced restrictions on some popular varieties, the commodity market cooled down. Only precious metals continued to rise, while the growth of non-ferrous metals slowed, and energy, chemicals, black metals, and agricultural products turned from rising to falling [3][14] - In the non-ferrous metals sector, there is an extreme style differentiation. Large-cap "value" varieties such as copper and aluminum are oscillating, lacking strong driving funds, while small-cap "growth" non-ferrous metals are highly elastic. Small metals are driven by supply factors, but their prices are volatile and difficult to sustain. Precious metals are mainly affected by geopolitical variables, with gold being less volatile than silver [3][16][19] Bond Market Entered a Relatively Balanced Range, and Attention Should Be Paid to the Differentiated Trends of Long-Term Bonds - Currently, the interest rate market has entered a relatively balanced range. The 30-year Treasury bond rate is around 2.3%, and the 10-year Treasury bond rate quickly returned to the central bank's desired range (around 1.85%) after a brief fluctuation [5][20] - For interest rate bonds, the short-term downward space is limited. Bond market sentiment has improved, and large banks have increased their purchases of 7 - 10-year bonds, which may indicate more policy easing. The profit of short-selling interest rate bonds has also decreased [5][20] - The strategy of short-selling local government bonds is attracting more attention, which may bring trading opportunities for widening spreads. The borrowing of local government bonds has increased, mainly due to concerns about supply and the narrowing of the spread between old local government bonds and old Treasury bonds [5][21] - For Tier 2 capital bonds and perpetual bonds, continuous buying is the key to the continuation of the market. Buying may come from dividend insurance and "fixed income +" accounts. However, for large institutional investors, the attractiveness of perpetual bonds is limited compared to equities at current levels. The allocation strength of "fixed income +" funds needs to be monitored [6][21]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that Guangdong Hongda held its 12th board meeting on December 5, 2025, to review the proposal for revising the "Board Authorization Management Measures" [1] - For the first half of 2025, Guangdong Hongda's revenue composition was as follows: mining accounted for 70.36%, civil explosives and other income for 15.11%, energy and chemical business for 12.85%, defense equipment for 0.88%, and other industries for 0.8% [1] - As of the report date, Guangdong Hongda's market capitalization was 32.1 billion yuan [1]

Core Viewpoint - Guangdong Hongda announced the convening of its 11th board meeting for 2025, where the third quarter report was reviewed, indicating ongoing corporate governance and financial oversight [1] Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, Guangdong Hongda's revenue composition was as follows: mining accounted for 70.36%, civil explosives and other income for 15.11%, energy and chemical business for 12.85%, defense equipment for 0.88%, and other industries for 0.8% [1] Market Position - As of the report, Guangdong Hongda's market capitalization stood at 29 billion yuan [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - Overseas, the US President's announcement of talks with Iran eases risk aversion, and the market expects the Fed to resume its rate - cut cycle, weakening the short - term US dollar index and increasing global risk appetite. Domestically, policies to support consumption and a relaxation of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East boost domestic risk appetite. Different asset classes have different trends: the stock index rebounds in the short - term, treasury bonds are volatile at a high level, and different commodity sectors show different short - term trends [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - finance - **Stock Index**: Driven by sectors such as finance, military, and artificial intelligence, the domestic stock market rises. With policy stimulus and a reduction in geopolitical risks, the short - term trading strategy is to cautiously go long [3][4]. - **Treasury Bonds**: They are volatile at a high level in the short - term, and the recommended strategy is to cautiously wait and see [3]. Precious Metals - After Iran and Israel declared a cease - fire, the safe - haven demand for precious metals weakened. Hawkish remarks from Powell and the Fed's decision to maintain interest rates, along with a deterioration in US consumer confidence, have put short - term pressure on precious metals [5]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The spot and futures prices of steel decline slightly. Demand continues to weaken, but supply is unlikely to decrease significantly due to expanding profits. The market is expected to oscillate at the bottom in the short - term [6][7]. - **Iron Ore**: The spot and futures prices of iron ore decline slightly. With rising iron - water production and inventory replenishment by steel mills, and high supply expectations, the price is expected to oscillate in the short - term and may decline in the medium - term [7]. - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: The spot prices are flat. Demand is okay in the short - term, but supply may increase. With potential supply disruptions in manganese mines, the market is expected to oscillate in the short - term, and prices may decline if oil prices fall [8]. Chemicals - **Soda Ash**: It oscillates strongly. Supply is abundant, demand is weak, and inventory is increasing. The price is expected to be under pressure and oscillate in the short - term [9]. - **Glass**: It also oscillates strongly. Supply is for just - in - time production, demand is weak, and profits are low. The price is expected to oscillate in the short - term [9]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy - **Copper**: Due to difficulties in US - EU trade negotiations and potential tariffs, along with high production and potential demand weakening, the short - term trend is uncertain, and future negotiations and tariff policies need to be monitored [10]. - **Aluminum**: With eased geopolitical tensions, the price rises. However, inventory accumulation may signal a turning point, and demand may weaken in the future [10]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: In the off - season, weak demand is offset by tight scrap aluminum supply, so the price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short - term with limited upside [11]. - **Tin**: The price rises due to slow mine复产 in Myanmar and tight domestic supply. Despite being in the off - season with weak demand, the price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short - term but with limited upside [11]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price rebounds and oscillates. Supply increases while demand weakens, and the recommended strategy is to wait and see in the short - term and go short in the medium - term [12]. - **Industrial Silicon**: It moves sideways. With weak supply and demand and a rebound in coal prices, the recommended strategy is to wait and see in the short - term and go short in the medium - term [12]. - **Polysilicon**: It remains weak. With limited room for a decline in supply and downward pressure on demand, the supply - demand contradiction may intensify if the photovoltaic industry cuts production [13][14]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Trump's pressure on Iran and a decline in EIA inventory keep the oil price oscillating in the short - term [15]. - **Asphalt**: It follows the oil price and oscillates. With improved shipping but increasing inventory, it will continue to fluctuate at a high level in the short - term [15]. - **PX**: It has strong cost support but faces a risk of decline. It will follow the oil price and oscillate weakly in the short - term [15]. - **PTA**: The basis remains strong, demand is weakening, and there is downward pressure in the short - term [16]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: With stable overseas production and low basis, the short - term de - stocking drive is low, and it will run weakly and stably [16]. - **Short - fiber**: It will follow the decline in the oil price and oscillate weakly in the medium - term, with high inventory and weak demand [16]. - **Methanol**: The price may decline in the short - term but is expected to oscillate strongly due to potential supply shortages [16]. - **PP**: With increasing production and weakening downstream demand, the price is expected to decline [17]. - **LLDPE**: With stable production and demand and falling oil prices, the price is expected to weaken and fluctuate strongly in the short - term [17]. Agricultural Products - **US Soybeans**: The price falls due to the impact of soybean oil and crude oil, and favorable weather in the US Midwest may further pressure the price [18]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The supply - demand situation is gradually easing, and the price may decline in the short - term. Attention should be paid to weather, policies, and import supply [18]. - **Oils and Fats**: The previous rally may reverse due to falling crude oil prices and changes in palm oil supply and demand [18]. - **Corn**: With changes in inventory and market supply, the price may consolidate at a high level in the short - term [18]. - **Hogs**: The market has a low expectation for price increases in July, and the price may decline in the short - term, with continued selling pressure on the LH09 contract [18].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - Overseas, Fed Chair Powell reiterated that the Fed can wait to cut interest rates, and the cease - fire between Israel and Iran reduced global risk aversion. The US dollar index weakened in the short - term, and global risk appetite increased. Domestically, China's consumption growth was strong in May, but investment and industrial production slowed down. The overall economic growth was stable, which helped boost domestic risk appetite. The easing of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and the dovish policy statements of Fed officials supported domestic risk appetite. For assets, the stock index may rebound in the short - term, and short - term cautious long positions are recommended; treasury bonds may fluctuate at a high level, and cautious waiting is advised; for the commodity sector, black metals may fluctuate at a low level, and cautious waiting is recommended; non - ferrous metals may fluctuate strongly, and short - term cautious long positions are recommended; energy and chemicals may have intensified fluctuations, and cautious waiting is recommended; precious metals may fluctuate at a high level, and cautious waiting is advised [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro Finance - Overseas, Powell's statement and the Israel - Iran cease - fire led to a weaker US dollar index and increased global risk appetite. Domestically, China's economic situation and external factors supported domestic risk appetite. For assets, different investment suggestions were given for stock indices, treasury bonds, and various commodity sectors [2]. Stock Index - Driven by sectors such as batteries, humanoid robots, and automobiles, the domestic stock market continued to rise. China's economic situation, the easing of Middle East geopolitical tensions, and Fed officials' dovish statements supported domestic risk appetite. The market's trading logic focused on multiple factors, and short - term cautious long positions were recommended [3]. Precious Metals - The Israel - Iran cease - fire reduced the safe - haven demand for precious metals, causing prices to decline. The Fed's stance and economic data influenced the market. With the easing of the Middle East conflict, precious metals were under short - term pressure [3][4]. Black Metals Steel - On Tuesday, steel prices slightly declined, and trading volume was low. The easing of the Middle East situation and falling oil prices affected the market. Although demand was not significantly worse and inventory was decreasing, supply increased, and the market was expected to bottom - out and fluctuate in the short - term [6]. Iron Ore - On Tuesday, iron ore prices declined. Iron ore supply was expected to remain high in the second - quarter peak season, and short - term prices were expected to fluctuate within a range, with a possible mid - term decline [6]. Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron - On Tuesday, the prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese were stable. The demand for ferroalloys was okay in the short - term. With production changes in different regions, the overall alloy output had little change. The market was expected to fluctuate within a range, and prices might decline if oil prices weakened [7][8]. Soda Ash - On Tuesday, soda ash prices were weakly fluctuating. Supply was increasing but at a slower pace, demand was mainly for rigid needs, and inventory was increasing. Prices were expected to be under pressure and fluctuate within a range in the short - term [8]. Glass - On Tuesday, glass prices were strongly fluctuating. Supply and demand were both weak, and the market was expected to fluctuate within a range in the short - term [9]. Non - Ferrous and New Energy Copper - Fed officials' stance changes affected the market. Copper production was high, demand had a marginal weakening risk, and inventory growth had slowed. The high price difference between COMEX and LME affected imports. Future market trends depended on US negotiations and tariff policies [10]. Aluminum - The easing of the Middle East geopolitical situation led to a decline in aluminum prices. Inventory accumulation indicated a possible turning point, and demand had a marginal weakening risk [11]. Aluminum Alloy - Entering the off - season, demand was weak, but tight scrap aluminum supply supported prices. Prices were expected to fluctuate strongly in the short - term with limited upside [11]. Tin - Supply was tight, and the start - up rate decreased slightly. Demand was in the off - season, and orders declined. Prices were expected to fluctuate strongly in the short - term with limited upside due to various factors [12]. Lithium Carbonate - The weighted contract of lithium carbonate rebounded, but supply increased while demand weakened, and inventory was high. Short - term waiting and mid - term short - positions were recommended [12]. Industrial Silicon - The market was in a sideways trend. Supply and demand were both weak, and prices were slightly affected by coal prices. Short - term waiting and mid - term short - positions were recommended [13]. Polysilicon - The market was weak. Supply was at a low level, and demand pressure was increasing. If the photovoltaic industry increased production cuts in the third quarter, the supply - demand contradiction would intensify [13]. Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - Trump's statements and the cease - fire agreement made the market focus on potential supply surpluses, and oil prices were expected to remain weakly fluctuating [14]. Asphalt - Oil price declines led to lower asphalt prices. Although inventory removal was slow, demand was approaching the peak season. It was expected to follow crude oil and fluctuate at a high level in the short - term [14]. PX - Crude oil price drops led to PX price declines, but the downward space was limited. Tight supply was expected to continue, and it would follow crude oil and fluctuate weakly in the short - term [15]. PTA - The PTA basis remained stable, but crude oil price changes might lead to downstream contradictions. With high polyester开工, inventory pressure was increasing, and prices might face upward pressure later [15]. Ethylene Glycol - Crude oil price drops and reduced supply risks affected ethylene glycol. Inventory removal slowed down, and prices were expected to be suppressed in the short - term [15]. Short - Fiber - Crude oil price drops led to short - fiber price declines. It followed the polyester sector and was expected to fluctuate strongly. With high inventory, it would wait for the peak - season demand [16]. Methanol - The methanol market declined, but supply shortages and profit repairs limited the downward space. It was expected to fluctuate strongly within a range in the short - term [17]. PP - PP prices declined. With increasing production and weakening demand, prices were expected to fall, and the development of the Israel - Iran conflict should be monitored [17]. LLDPE - Polyethylene prices adjusted. With stable production and demand, and the easing of geopolitical conflicts, the market was expected to weaken and fluctuate strongly in the short - term [17]. Agricultural Products US Soybeans - CBOT soybeans declined due to the influence of soybean oil and crude oil. Favorable weather in the US Midwest was expected [18]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - The high - opening rate of oil mills led to a gradually looser supply - demand situation for soybean meal. The market sentiment was weakly fluctuating, and the domestic basis was expected to remain unchanged [18]. Palm Oil - No detailed content provided for palm oil analysis. Live Hogs - The expected low pig prices until August - September might lead to continuous selling pressure for the LH09 contract [20].