证券研究报告 | 2025年11月16日 美股市场速览 弱于大市 资金减速流出，行业分化显著 价格走势：市场震荡，风格行业分化 本周，标普 500 涨 0.1%，纳斯达克跌 0.5%。 风格方面：大盘价值（罗素 1000 价值+0.1%）＞大盘成长（罗素 1000 成长 -0.1%）＞小盘价值（罗素 2000 价值-0.8%）＞小盘成长（罗素 2000 成长 -2.8%）。 14 个行业上涨，10 个行业下跌。上涨的主要有：制药生物科技和生命科学 （+6.1%）、电信业务（+3.2%）、能源（+2.5%）、保险（+2.3%）、食品饮 料与烟草（+1.3%）；下跌的主要有：汽车与汽车零部件（-5.3%）、零售业 （-3.0%）、银行（-1.8%）、资本品（-1.2%）、公用事业（-1.2%）。 资金流向：整体减速流出，行业分化显著 本周，标普 500 成分股估算资金流（涨跌额 x 成交量）为-22.3（亿美元， 下同），上周为-164.1，近 4 周为-160.8，近 13 周为+397.2。 13 个行业资金流入，11 个行业资金流出。资金流入的主要有：半导体产品 与设备（+14.8）、制药生物科技和生命科学 ...

Key Points - Waymo's self-driving car was stopped for illegal U-turn but could not be fined due to lack of legal provisions for autonomous vehicles [3] - Meng Wanzhou has taken over as Huawei's rotating chairman, marking her third term in this role [6] - BYD reported September sales of 396,300 units, maintaining its position as the top seller in the automotive market [8][9] - Xiaomi's sales reached a historical high in September, surpassing 40,000 units for the first time [8] - The Respect S800 is projected to outsell luxury brands like Maybach and Mercedes-Benz, with significant pre-orders [11] - Xiaomi clarified its marketing practices regarding "super strong steel," stating it follows industry norms and does not affect material performance [12] - Yushun Technology addressed security vulnerabilities in its robots, stating most issues have been resolved [14][15] - Panasonic is reportedly implementing a voluntary retirement program, but it does not affect its Chinese operations [16][17] - BYD's U9X model sold out quickly in the Middle East, indicating strong demand from high-net-worth individuals [18] - Nio's sales in September reached 34,700 units, showing a 10.86% increase from the previous month [9] - Ford's CEO highlighted China's dominance in the electric vehicle market, comparing it to a "700-pound gorilla" [28] - Apple responded to a lawsuit from Musk's xAI, defending its partnership with OpenAI as a legitimate business decision [30][31] - Amazon and Google are reportedly notifying NVIDIA about their AI chip developments to avoid supply chain disruptions [32] - Tesla plans to launch its third-generation Optimus humanoid robot by the end of 2025, with mass production expected in 2026 [33] - Samsung has begun mass production of its first 2nm chip, the Exynos 2600, set to debut in the Galaxy S26 series [35][36] - Microsoft will end support for Windows 10 on October 14, urging users to upgrade to Windows 11 [38]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Weaker than the market" rating for the U.S. stock market [1] Core Insights - The U.S. stock market has shown signs of slowing capital inflow, with significant industry differentiation observed [1][4] - The S&P 500 index has experienced a slight decline of 0.3% this week, while the Nasdaq fell by 0.7% [3] - Energy, automotive, utilities, and technology hardware sectors have shown positive performance, while retail, media, and materials sectors have faced declines [3][4] Summary by Sections Price Trends - The S&P 500 index decreased by 0.3%, and the Nasdaq dropped by 0.7% this week - The performance ranking of styles is as follows: Large-cap value (+0.1%) > Small-cap value (-0.1%) > Large-cap growth (-0.8%) > Small-cap growth (-1.0%) [3] Capital Flows - Estimated capital flow for S&P 500 components was +$12.5 billion this week, down from +$134.6 billion last week - 10 sectors saw capital inflows, while 14 experienced outflows - Notable inflows were seen in semiconductors (+$23.6 million), automotive (+$15.9 million), and technology hardware (+$9.5 million) [4] Earnings Forecast - The earnings per share (EPS) forecast for S&P 500 components was adjusted upward by 0.3% this week - 21 sectors saw an increase in earnings expectations, while materials and retail sectors experienced declines [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Underperform" rating for the U.S. stock market [1] Core Insights - The U.S. stock market has reached new highs as the interest rate cut cycle begins, with the S&P 500 increasing by 1.2% and the Nasdaq by 2.2% [3] - There is a significant divergence in industry performance, with 10 sectors rising and 12 falling [3] - The report highlights a steady upward revision in earnings expectations for the S&P 500 components, with a 0.3% increase in the next 12 months' EPS forecast [5] Price Trends - The S&P 500 rose by 1.2% this week, while the Nasdaq increased by 2.2% [3] - The best-performing sectors included Automotive & Components (+6.9%), Technology Hardware & Equipment (+4.6%), and Media & Entertainment (+3.9%) [3] - The sectors that saw the largest declines were Durable Goods & Apparel (-2.4%) and Healthcare Equipment & Services (-1.8%) [3] Fund Flows - The estimated fund flow for S&P 500 components was +134.6 billion USD this week, down from +215.4 billion USD the previous week [4] - Notable inflows were seen in Software & Services (+42.4 billion USD), Automotive & Components (+40.1 billion USD), and Semiconductor Products & Equipment (+26.3 billion USD) [4] - The sectors experiencing outflows included Healthcare Equipment & Services (-6.5 billion USD) and Durable Goods & Apparel (-2.1 billion USD) [4] Earnings Forecast - The report indicates a 0.3% upward adjustment in the earnings expectations for the S&P 500 components, consistent with the previous week [5] - The Semiconductor Products & Equipment sector led the upward revisions with a +0.7% increase, followed by Energy (+0.6%) and Materials (+0.5%) [5] - The Durable Goods & Apparel sector was the only one to see a downward revision, with a -0.8% adjustment [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Underperform" rating for the U.S. stock market [1] Core Insights - The U.S. stock market continues to reach new highs, with the S&P 500 increasing by 1.6% and the Nasdaq by 2.0% [3] - There is a significant capital inflow concentrated in the technology sector, with notable increases in software and services, automotive, and semiconductor industries [4] - Earnings expectations for the S&P 500 constituents have been slightly revised upward, with the energy sector leading the adjustments [5] Summary by Sections Price Trends - The S&P 500 rose by 1.6% this week, while the Nasdaq increased by 2.0% - Growth styles outperformed value styles, with large-cap growth (Russell 1000 Growth) up by 2.5% and small-cap growth (Russell 2000 Growth) up by 0.8% - The automotive and semiconductor sectors saw significant gains of 11.6% and 6.2%, respectively [3] Capital Flows - Estimated capital inflow for S&P 500 constituents was +215.4 billion USD this week, a substantial increase from +27.3 billion USD the previous week - The software and services sector led with an inflow of +66.9 billion USD, followed closely by automotive (+65.1 billion USD) and semiconductors (+52.5 billion USD) [4] Earnings Forecasts - The forward 12-month EPS expectations for S&P 500 constituents were revised up by 0.3% - The energy sector saw the largest upward revision at +1.0%, followed by semiconductors at +0.5% [5]

Key Points - NIO has returned to a market capitalization of 100 billion RMB after the launch of the new ES8, with a total market value of approximately 141 billion USD [4][5] - The president of a leading chip company is under investigation for insider trading, which is unrelated to the company's operations [7][9] - Yushu Technology is facing its first patent infringement lawsuit while preparing for its IPO [11] - A former executive at Kuaishou is involved in a corruption case involving 140 million RMB [12] - Pinduoduo reported a 21% decline in profits for Q2, with plans to focus on long-term investments [13][14] - Jia Yueting has secured 30 million USD in financing for his company Faraday Future [14] - DJI's new robot vacuum has faced issues with obstacle detection, which the company plans to fix within 1-2 months [15] - Gree's marketing director responded to claims that Xiaomi surpassed them in online air conditioner sales, emphasizing the importance of quality over sales figures [16] - Huawei's new car model, the Shangjie H5, has received 25,000 pre-orders within an hour of its launch [17][18] - JD.com's food delivery head stated the company will not engage in a subsidy war, focusing instead on long-term value creation [19] - DingTalk has launched new AI hardware and features, emphasizing a balance between work and life [19] - Huawei's HarmonyOS has delivered over 900,000 vehicles, with expectations to exceed one million by October [21] - ByteDance has denied rumors about releasing AI glasses, stating the product is still in early exploration [22] - Dongfeng Group's subsidiary, Lantu Motors, is set to go public in Hong Kong [22] - Apple's expansion in India faces challenges as Foxconn recalls around 300 Chinese engineers [24][25] - Elon Musk acknowledged that Chinese companies are formidable competitors for xAI due to their advantages in power supply and hardware manufacturing [26][27]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Weaker than Market" rating for the industry [1] Core Insights - The US stock market experienced a rapid rebound, with the S&P 500 rising by 2.4% and the Nasdaq by 3.9% [3] - There is significant sector differentiation in capital flows, with 17 sectors seeing inflows and 7 experiencing outflows [4] - Earnings expectations for the S&P 500 constituents have been revised upward by 0.4% for the next 12 months [5] Summary by Sections Market Overview - The S&P 500 closed at 6,389, reflecting a 2.4% increase for the week and a 19.6% increase year-to-date [11] - The Nasdaq 100 and Nasdaq Composite also showed strong performance, with increases of 3.7% and 3.9% respectively [11] Price Trends - The technology hardware and equipment sector led the market with an 11.5% increase, followed by the automotive and automotive parts sector at 8.3% [3] - The pharmaceutical, biotechnology, and life sciences sector saw a decline of 2.7% [3] Capital Flows - Estimated capital inflows for the S&P 500 were +$1.7 billion this week, contrasting with a significant outflow of -$10.8 billion in the previous week [4] - The technology hardware and equipment sector attracted the most capital, with inflows of $2.3 billion [19] Earnings Forecast - The report indicates that 21 sectors have seen upward revisions in earnings expectations, with consumer services and commercial and professional services leading at +0.7% [5] - The pharmaceutical, biotechnology, and life sciences sector was among those with upward revisions, despite its recent performance decline [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Weaker than Market" rating for the U.S. stock market [1] Core Insights - The U.S. stock market experienced a sudden pullback influenced by non-farm employment data, with the S&P 500 declining by 2.4% and the Nasdaq by 2.2% [3] - Among sectors, large-cap value stocks outperformed large-cap growth and small-cap stocks, indicating a preference for stability in turbulent market conditions [3] - The report highlights that three sectors saw gains while 21 sectors faced declines, with utilities, food and staples retailing, and media and entertainment being the only sectors to rise [3] Summary by Sections Price Trends - The S&P 500 fell by 2.4% and the Nasdaq by 2.2% this week, with large-cap value stocks declining by 1.8% compared to a 3.1% drop in large-cap growth stocks [3] - Utilities (+1.6%), food and staples retailing (+0.9%), and media and entertainment (+0.2%) were the only sectors to increase, while transportation (-5.9%), materials (-5.1%), and retail (-4.8%) faced the largest declines [3] Fund Flows - The estimated fund flow for S&P 500 constituents was -$16.95 billion this week, a significant increase from the previous week's -$2.2 billion [4] - Media and entertainment (+$1.59 billion), utilities (+$0.27 billion), and food and staples retailing (+$0.042 billion) saw inflows, while healthcare equipment and services (-$3.47 billion) and financials (-$4.15 billion) experienced the largest outflows [4] Earnings Forecast - The report indicates a 0.6% upward adjustment in the 12-month EPS forecast for S&P 500 constituents, with 18 sectors seeing an increase and 5 sectors experiencing downgrades [5] - Retail (+3.3%), media and entertainment (+2.0%), and technology hardware (+1.5%) led the upward revisions, while healthcare equipment and services faced a significant downgrade of -3.6% [5]

Market Performance - The S&P 500 increased by 1.5% this week, while the Nasdaq rose by 1.0%[3] - Large-cap value stocks (Russell 1000 Value) outperformed with a gain of 1.6%, compared to small-cap value (1.4%), large-cap growth (1.2%), and small-cap growth (0.5%)[3] Sector Performance - 21 sectors experienced gains, with durable goods and apparel leading at +5.3%, followed by telecommunications (+5.2%) and pharmaceuticals, biotechnology, and life sciences (+5.2%)[3] - The automotive and auto parts sector saw a decline of -3.4%, while food, beverage, and tobacco fell by -1.0%[3] Fund Flows - Estimated fund flow for S&P 500 components was -$2.2 billion this week, down from +$45.5 billion last week[4] - The pharmaceutical, biotechnology, and life sciences sector saw the highest inflow at +$1.5 billion, while the automotive sector had the largest outflow at -$2.5 billion[4] Earnings Forecast - The 12-month forward EPS estimate for S&P 500 components was revised up by 0.5% this week, following a 0.6% increase last week[5] - 22 sectors had upward revisions, with media and entertainment leading at +1.9% and real estate at +1.4%[5] Economic Risks - Key risks include uncertainties in economic fundamentals, international political situations, U.S. fiscal policy, and Federal Reserve monetary policy[5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Weaker than Market" investment rating for the U.S. stock market [1] Core Insights - The U.S. stock market experienced narrow fluctuations with most sectors declining, as the S&P 500 fell by 0.3% and the Nasdaq by 0.1% [3] - There were 8 sectors that increased while 16 sectors decreased, with notable gains in Energy (+2.6%), Semiconductor Products and Equipment (+2.4%), and Transportation (+1.2%) [3] - Conversely, sectors that saw significant declines included Telecommunications (-4.8%), Insurance (-2.6%), and Banks (-2.5%) [3] Summary by Sections Market Overview - The S&P 500's estimated fund flow was -$5.7 billion this week, a decrease from the previous week's +$23.4 billion, with a total of +$216.4 billion over the last 13 weeks [4] - Fund inflows were observed in 11 sectors, with Semiconductor Products and Equipment leading at +$17.2 billion, followed by Transportation (+$6.0 billion) and Energy (+$4.1 billion) [4] - Sectors experiencing fund outflows included Software and Services (-$15.9 billion) and Automotive and Parts (-$8.2 billion) [4] Earnings Forecast - The dynamic F12M EPS forecast for S&P 500 constituents was adjusted upward by 0.3%, following a 0.2% increase the previous week [5] - Earnings expectations were raised for 21 sectors, with the highest adjustments in Integrated Finance (+0.8%), Automotive and Parts (+0.8%), and Semiconductor Products and Equipment (+0.8%) [5] - Three sectors saw downward revisions, notably Healthcare Equipment and Services (-1.0%) and Telecommunications (-0.2%) [5] Price Performance - The Energy sector recorded a price return of +2.6% this week, while the Telecommunications sector saw a decline of -4.8% [15] - Over the past 52 weeks, the Energy sector has increased by 5.1%, while the Telecommunications sector has decreased by 4.0% [15] - The Semiconductor Products and Equipment sector has shown a remarkable increase of +48.0% over the past 13 weeks [15] Fund Flow Analysis - The Industrial sector led with a net fund inflow of $781 million this week, followed by Energy with $409 million [19] - The Semiconductor Products and Equipment sector also saw significant inflows of $1.716 billion, indicating strong investor interest [19] - In contrast, the Software and Services sector experienced the largest outflow of -$1.594 billion [19]