【环球网财经综合报道】当前，外资公募基金公司牌照落地五年有余。截至1月27日，2025年以来共有9家外资公募合 计成立57只新基金，募集规模超750亿元。其中，23只为被动基金、19只为固收基金，11只为主动权益基金，还有4只 FOF基金。进一步来讲，被动基金与固收产品为发行主力，主动权益类产品也逐渐崭露头角，特别是在科技、港股 通、ESG等主题赛道上，外资机构凭借其全球投研优势，正试图打造具有辨识度的产品线。 从机构布局来看，9家参与新发的外资公募呈现鲜明的差异化特征。摩根资产管理以17只新发产品位居数量榜首，覆 盖被动指数、增强指数、短期纯债、混合型FOF等多个品类，践行"主动+被动"双轮驱动策略，既布局港股通50ETF、 科创债ETF等被动工具，也发行主动权益类产品，形成均衡的产品线矩阵。 摩根士丹利基金聚焦主动权益赛道，期间发行的6只产品中有3只为偏股混合型基金，包括大摩沪港深科技混合、大摩 港股通多元成长混合、大摩景气智选混合。而宏利基金在固收与指数增强领域发力，期间发行了多只混合债券型基金 和中证A50、A500指数增强产品，契合其"稳健+增强"的产品风格。贝莱德基金继续深耕指数与固收赛道，发行了 ...

近期，公募基金2025年四季报已披露完毕，研报分析也相继出炉。将公募基金的四季报作为一个群体进行扫 描，"集体肖像"在一定程度上帮助我们勾勒这一阶段的市场共识，及时发现新的端倪。 规模方面，主动基金与被动基金呈现此消彼长的状态。 招商证券的报告中提到，四季度主动基金规模回落 1739亿元至3.97万亿；而被动基金则大幅回升1426亿元至5.48万亿，被动基金规模继续领先主动基金。 不过，尽管主动基金规模有所回落，但主动偏股类老基金净赎回规模收窄的现象已经出现。东吴证券报告提 到，2025年市场走强带动大量基金集中"回本"，对应基民"落袋为安"的赎回行为也在下半年集中释放，下半年 主动权益净赎回带动的权益资金净流出创下2016年以来半年度级别历史新高。往后看，尚未"回本"的基金规模 体量已相对有限，难再现2025年下半年的集中赎回潮，2026年被动减持压力缓解，资产端更具主动性。 除此之外，还有几份报告中的观察也值得关注： 一是 资源品仓位创历史新高 。招商证券的报告中提到，2025年四季度，资源品成为最显著的增持方向，环比 上升3.34%至13.36%，增幅居首，处于历史以来100%分位。 二是含权债基发行热 ...

Core Insights - The global asset management industry is projected to grow from $139 trillion in 2024 to $200 trillion by 2030, with private equity becoming a significant revenue contributor, expected to account for over half of the industry's income within five years [1][2]. Group 1: Private Equity Market Growth - The private equity market is anticipated to generate $432 billion in revenue by 2030, surpassing the combined revenue of traditional active and passive investment products [1]. - Factors driving the rapid expansion of the private equity market include investor demand for higher returns, increased accessibility for retail investors, and a decline in public market IPOs [2][3]. Group 2: Traditional Asset Management Challenges - Despite the growth in asset size, the profitability of the asset management industry is under pressure, with 89% of firms experiencing profit challenges over the past five years [4]. - Profit margins have decreased by 19% since 2018 and are expected to decline by an additional 9% by 2030, primarily due to rising costs and the growth of low-fee passive funds [4]. - The rapid growth of passive funds is projected to increase from approximately $40 trillion to $70 trillion by 2030, further compressing overall fee levels in the industry [4]. Group 3: Strategic Shifts in the Industry - Companies are encouraged to innovate and restructure their business models to remain competitive, as the winners will be those that adapt quickly rather than those that simply accumulate assets [5].

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The ETF market in China is rapidly expanding, expected to exceed 5 trillion by August 2025, surpassing Japan to become Asia's largest ETF market [1] - Passive funds are increasingly dominating the A-share market, with their market value share surpassing active funds for the first time in Q4 2024 [10] - The insurance sector is projected to inject an additional 300-400 billion into the market in the second half of 2025 due to policy guidance and premium growth [25] Core Insights and Arguments - The growth of stock ETFs is significant, with net inflows reaching 1 trillion in 2024, driven by a shift from state-backed support to industry-themed ETFs [1][5] - Active equity funds have been shrinking since 2022, but are expected to show excess returns starting in 2025, indicating a potential recovery in investor interest [13][15] - The social security fund, with a size of 3 trillion, plays a crucial role in the A-share market, holding approximately 21.4% of its assets in A-shares [34] Changes in Investor Behavior - There has been a notable shift in investor preferences, with insurance funds increasingly favoring high-dividend assets and expanding into broader sectors like telecommunications and automotive [25][26] - The participation of retail investors in the A-share market remains low, with a significant decline in new account openings compared to previous years [36] - The trend of active equity funds is showing signs of recovery, with improved performance and reduced redemption pressure since early 2025 [18] Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - The A-share market is currently characterized by a stock game environment, with ETFs providing essential passive incremental funds that influence market styles significantly [11] - The future of active equity funds looks promising, with expectations that they will become a significant source of incremental capital in the market starting in Q4 2025 [24] - External factors such as MSCI index inclusion, PMI index, US Treasury rates, offshore RMB exchange rates, and relative returns of A-shares are critical indicators for foreign capital inflow [31] Additional Important Insights - The insurance sector's asset allocation strategy is evolving, with a preference for high-dividend assets despite rising valuations and declining yields [25][26] - The performance of private equity funds has improved, with a notable increase in their market presence and flexibility in investment strategies [33] - The overall market sentiment is expected to improve as various types of funds, including public funds, insurance capital, and foreign ETFs, align to create a consensus for further capital inflow [38]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the unexpected strong performance of actively managed funds in the first half of 2025, outperforming passive funds by nearly 5 percentage points, suggesting a resurgence in the credibility of active fund managers [3][5]. Group 1: Performance of Active Funds - In the first half of 2025, 50 actively managed funds achieved net value returns exceeding 30%, with the top ten funds all surpassing 60% gains, outperforming the best-performing passive ETF, which had a return of 58.76% [12][14]. - Among the top-performing active funds, Guangfa Fund led with 9 funds, followed by Penghua, Changcheng, Huitianfu, and Fuguo, each with 6 funds [14][15]. Group 2: Opportunities in Emerging Markets - The article identifies the Beijing Stock Exchange (北交所) as a "golden opportunity" for active funds, where less transparent information and lower research coverage allow for better identification of mispriced opportunities, thus creating alpha (excess returns) [16][18]. - The North Star 50 Index, a benchmark for the Beijing Stock Exchange, has seen a year-to-date increase of over 30%, significantly outperforming the Zhongzheng 2000 index [18][21]. Group 3: Value of Active Management - The true value of active management lies in the ability to dynamically search for undervalued opportunities across the entire market, rather than being confined to specific industries or styles, which is a key advantage over passive investment strategies [22][24]. - The article emphasizes that while passive funds are effective for obtaining market average returns (beta), allocating a portion of investments to capable active fund managers can yield excess returns (alpha) [25][26].