更多资料加入知识星球:水木调研纪要 关注公众号:水木纪要 大模型不能"吞噬一切",重视 AI 应用投资机会 20260104 摘要 0&A 2025 年 AI 应用市场表现如何?有哪些关键事件影响了市场预期? 2025年 AI 应用市场整体表现较为一般,甚至让人有些失望。除了春节后 Deepseek 用户增长带动了一些行情外,从二季度到四季度,AI 应用的市场表现都不尽如 人意。然而,在 2025 年最后几个交易日,中国武汉的公司 Manus 被 Facebook 收购的消息引发了市场关注。这一事件从两个视角改变了人们对 AI 应用的看法。 首先,今年以来,市场上普遍认为大模型吞噬一切,导致非全球 TOP 3 模型公司 的应用产品难以独立生存。这种观点压制了应用行情。然而,Meta 作为全球顶 争 狗 - Manus 被 Meta 收购表明垂直 AI 应用具独立价值,中国 AI 应用公司海外 商业化能力获认可,市场对 AI 应用行情重燃兴趣,短期内 CES 展会及智 谱华章、Minimax 上市等事件或成催化剂。 2026年 AI 应用行情预计乐观,大厂加速 C端布局,如阿里千问 APP 接入 高德地图,字节 ...

12月的上海世博中心，迎来了一次在年底难得一见的盛会，超过5000人涌进了在这里举行的火山引擎举办2025冬季Force原动力大会。 Lenovo 原理 保障联想AI PC智能体 百万级用户隐私数据安全 哪里 | FORCE 8 ! s : . u . ... t C 9 C . B/S/H/ I I FORCE & NIO 得到 0 66 7 POWER LL 理想 (SF) Trondlood t 4R 15 招商证母 CMS coffee P 8 .. . . i . . . . . 2. . &a .t. .50 - *** . . B . to . . ● . . . ® . .... . ..... 与TO C端的展会不懂也能看个热闹不同，Force原动力大会这样TO B端的大会，主打的就是一个实际价值：没价值的请也未必来，有价值的不请也要来，毕 竟大家都挺忙的。据南方+记者在本次大会现场所见，主会场除了安排的座位外，里三层外三层站着的观众让本来相当宽敞的世博中心主会场被迫限制入 场，更是在外场的三层和四层安排了直播观会，Force原动力大会如此爆棚的人气，背后恰恰说明了火山引擎如今对于B端用户的 ...

Core Insights - ByteDance's cloud platform Volcano Engine has released the Doubao model 1.8 and the Seedance 1.5 pro audio-video creation model, with Doubao's daily token usage exceeding 50 trillion, up from 30 trillion in September [2] - The industry views the targeted restrictions on internet apps as a conflict between the "Agent era and the APP era," but the president of Volcano Engine, Tan Dai, believes that the core value for users lies in achieving goals more conveniently and at lower costs, regardless of the medium used [2] - Tan Dai emphasizes that AI's primary role should be to optimize the efficiency of unmet needs, suggesting a coexistence of Web, APP, and Agent rather than a replacement [2] Industry Readiness - The exploration of AI and Agents is still in a trial phase, with market demand present but models not yet fully developed, a situation expected to last for about three more years [3] - The core issue regarding the industry's readiness for Agent integration lies in the improvement of Agent tools, with Volcano Engine investing significant resources to make existing functions recognizable and callable by Agents [3] - Tan Dai notes that both Doubao AI assistants and APPs consist of complex Agent collections, facing challenges in foundational capabilities and real-world application requirements [3] Multi-Modal Models - By the end of 2025, leading domestic and international model manufacturers are intensifying efforts, with multi-modal models like Seedance 1.5 pro marking a shift towards deeper AI applications [4] - Multi-modal capabilities allow models to "see, hear, speak, and act," moving beyond text-based interactions to practical applications such as traffic recognition and quality inspection [4] - Tan Dai believes that while multi-modal models face data challenges, significant progress has been made compared to last year, and the pace of model advancement is rapid [4] Cloud Services in AI Era - Volcano Engine continues to highlight the value of cloud services in the AI era, with AWS aiming for its generative AI platform Bedrock to become the "largest reasoning engine globally," comparable to its core computing service EC2, which is currently valued at around $40 billion [4] - Tan Dai acknowledges this trend and compares the development of MaaS (Model as a Service) to the chip business, indicating a shift from GPU training to inference processes [4] Future of AI Hardware - Tan Dai cites the early 2025 AI wave as evidence of the importance of cloud business, noting that many users faced issues with fixed-capacity AI hardware due to rapid technological iterations [5] - The inability to privatize deploy technologies like Agents and the fixed capabilities of one-machine solutions hinder the successful implementation of diverse AI applications [5] - Consequently, the private one-machine model from the software era is expected to be phased out in the AI era [5]

Core Insights - The emergence of AI smartphones is facing significant challenges, particularly highlighted by the collaboration between ByteDance and ZTE, which encountered operational issues due to system-level permission conflicts with major applications like WeChat [1][4][5] - The competition for AI integration in mobile devices is intensifying, with questions about how new entrants can gain trust within established ecosystems dominated by giants like Tencent [2][6] Technical Challenges - The AI assistant, Doubao, attempted to utilize system-level permissions, allowing it to simulate user actions across applications, which triggered security alerts from popular apps [4][5] - This capability effectively positioned Doubao as an invasive entity within the mobile ecosystem, raising concerns about user data privacy and security [5][6] Ecosystem Dynamics - The conflict is not merely technical but rooted in the competitive dynamics between ByteDance and Tencent, where trust and data security are paramount [6][9] - Doubao's intent to streamline user interactions across multiple applications poses a direct threat to the existing flow of traffic and user engagement for established platforms like WeChat and Alibaba [7][8] Strategic Implications for Tencent - Tencent is likely to adopt a more integrated approach by leveraging its existing ecosystem, potentially creating an AI assistant that seamlessly integrates with WeChat, thus enhancing user experience without compromising security [13][14] - The strategy may involve deep partnerships with manufacturers that lack strong ecosystems, allowing Tencent to maintain control over the software and user interactions [11][12] Market Reactions and Future Outlook - The response from existing applications to Tencent's potential AI assistant will be critical, as many rely heavily on WeChat for user engagement and transactions [21][22] - Tencent's approach may involve a combination of incentives and pressures to ensure cooperation from third-party applications, thereby reinforcing its ecosystem dominance [23][24] - The future of AI smartphones may hinge on whether they can navigate existing ecosystem barriers or if they will need to align with established players to succeed [26]

Core Insights - The Doubao smartphone, featuring the Doubao AI assistant, has gained significant attention for its advanced capabilities, including cross-application automation and real-time visual understanding, leading to immediate sell-out on its launch day [1][3] - The device has created a unique user experience, with reports of its ability to assist in complex tasks such as answering quiz questions and video editing, showcasing a glimpse of a future where voice commands can replace manual actions [3][5] - However, the smartphone has faced backlash due to login issues with several major applications, raising concerns about security and fairness in the digital ecosystem, as its AI capabilities mimic human interactions [5][6] Market Response - The initial market response has been overwhelmingly positive, with the smartphone selling out quickly and commanding high resale prices on second-hand platforms, indicating strong demand [1][3] - Users have shared their experiences on social media, highlighting the device's ability to perform tasks that were previously thought to require human intervention, thus enhancing its appeal [3][5] Regulatory and Industry Challenges - The smartphone's advanced AI features have led to restrictions from various applications, including WeChat and several financial apps, due to concerns over account security and the potential for misuse [5][6] - The Doubao team has announced adjustments to the AI's operational capabilities, including limiting its use in gaming and financial applications, reflecting the industry's struggle to adapt to the implications of AI as an active operator rather than a mere tool [6][7] - The situation underscores the broader challenges faced by the AI industry, including the need for clear regulations and guidelines to address liability and ethical considerations as AI technology evolves [7]

Core Insights - The article highlights the competition for the "super entry point" in the AI era, emphasizing that the ability to control data and traffic is shifting from traditional apps to system-level AI agents [2][17] - The recent developments surrounding the Doubao AI assistant reveal the challenges faced by AI companies in navigating existing app ecosystems and data security regulations [5][19] Group 1: Doubao AI Assistant Launch and Challenges - Doubao AI assistant was launched on December 1, enabling cross-application operations, which generated significant market excitement [7][4] - Shortly after its launch, Doubao announced a temporary suspension of its ability to operate financial apps due to security concerns, highlighting the need for clear AI operation guidelines [3][4] - Major apps like WeChat, Taobao, and banks implemented measures to prevent Doubao AI from functioning properly, indicating a defensive response to the new technology [8][10] Group 2: Industry Dynamics and Competitive Landscape - The conflict between AI companies, hardware manufacturers, and app developers illustrates a complex interplay of interests and poses challenges to existing data security frameworks [5][12] - Goldman Sachs identified three core obstacles for third-party AI agents: system-level operation permissions, memory capabilities, and cross-application interface connections [12][14] - The dominance of major smartphone manufacturers in the Chinese market, which hold over 90% market share, makes it difficult for new players to disrupt the ecosystem [14][15] Group 3: Future of AI and App Ecosystem - The article suggests that as voice interaction becomes the primary entry point, traditional app operations may collapse, making it crucial to establish a default system entry point [17][20] - The ongoing battle for AI agents signifies a broader struggle involving major tech companies and highlights the potential for significant shifts in the internet landscape over the next decade [19][20]

Core Viewpoint - The competition in the AI industry is shifting from large model parameters to the hardware applications of AI, with major companies vying for the next generation of hardware entry points, particularly AI glasses and smartphones [5][6]. Group 1: AI Hardware Competition - Major companies like Alibaba, ByteDance, and Baidu are rapidly developing AI glasses to establish a foothold in the AI hardware ecosystem [4][6]. - The AI glasses are seen as the next critical terminal after smartphones, with both startups and major internet companies entering the market [6][7]. - The integration of AI capabilities into smartphones and AI glasses aims to create a closed-loop hardware ecosystem, with ByteDance's ambitions being particularly notable [7][13]. Group 2: User Interaction and Functionality - The "Doubao AI Assistant" on the Nubia M153 smartphone can perform tasks such as gaming and controlling smart devices, showcasing the potential of AI in enhancing user experience [8][11]. - AI assistants from various companies, including Alibaba's Qianwen Assistant, are being integrated into AI glasses to enable voice-controlled operations [12]. - The future of smartphones may involve AI generating interfaces and operations based on user intent, reducing reliance on traditional input methods [13]. Group 3: Regulatory Challenges - The integration of AI assistants with third-party applications like WeChat faces significant regulatory hurdles, leading to the suspension of certain functionalities due to compliance issues [15][17]. - Major apps, particularly WeChat, have strict regulations against automated operations, which complicates the deployment of AI assistants [17][22]. - Previous attempts by other smartphone manufacturers to integrate AI functionalities with WeChat have also been halted, indicating a broader trend of resistance from app developers [18][20]. Group 4: Hardware Development Challenges - Internet companies lacking hardware expertise face significant challenges in developing smart terminals, as evidenced by past struggles of companies like Google and ByteDance in the smartphone market [23][24]. - Despite skepticism about the sustainability of hardware ventures, some experts believe that companies like ByteDance can leverage their existing user base to support hardware initiatives [25]. - Alibaba's strength lies in its stable B2B customer base, while Baidu's advantage is its search capabilities, which can enhance the functionality of AI glasses [25].

Core Insights - The "Doubao Phone" has decided to temporarily withdraw its capability to operate financial apps, citing the need for "prudent adjustments" to align technology development with industry ecology [1][2] - The launch of the Doubao AI Assistant, which allows cross-application operations, has faced significant backlash from major apps like WeChat and Taobao, indicating a conflict between AI developers and existing app ecosystems [3][4] Group 1: Doubao Phone and AI Assistant - Doubao's announcement on December 5 highlights a shift in strategy to ensure safe AI operations, particularly in financial applications [1][2] - The Doubao AI Assistant, launched on December 1, was initially well-received, leading to a surge in demand and price inflation for the associated smartphone [2][3] - Users reported issues with the AI Assistant causing abnormal logouts from WeChat and other apps, raising concerns about security and operational integrity [3][4] Group 2: Industry Response and Implications - Major apps like WeChat and Taobao have implemented measures to block the Doubao AI Assistant, reflecting a defensive stance against third-party AI operations [4][5] - The situation underscores the challenges faced by third-party AI agents in gaining system-level permissions and accessing user data, which are tightly controlled by smartphone manufacturers [5][6] - High-profile firms like Xiaomi are highlighted as having a competitive advantage due to their integrated AI systems and established ecosystems, which are difficult for new entrants to disrupt [6][7] Group 3: Future of AI and App Ecosystems - The conflict initiated by Doubao reveals a broader struggle for control over AI as a new entry point in the digital landscape, potentially reshaping user interactions with applications [7][8] - The need for third-party app authorization poses significant barriers for AI agents, as existing apps are likely to maintain strict security measures to protect user data [9][10] - The ongoing evolution of AI agents is seen as a pivotal moment in the tech industry, with major players vying for dominance in a rapidly changing environment [10]

Core Insights - The competition in the AI sector is shifting from large model parameters to the application of AI in hardware, with major companies vying for the next generation of hardware entry points [2][6] - AI glasses are emerging as a key terminal following smartphones, attracting interest from both startups and major internet companies [2][6] - The integration of AI capabilities into hardware is seen as essential for creating a closed-loop ecosystem, with companies like ByteDance and ZTE collaborating on AI assistant-enabled devices [2][6] Group 1: Industry Dynamics - Major internet companies are racing to establish their presence in the AI hardware market, with the "entry point" being a critical competitive advantage [2][12] - The AI assistant capabilities are being tested in various applications, but face challenges due to strict regulations from major apps like WeChat, which restrict automated operations [10][12] - The integration of AI with hardware is expected to redefine user interaction, potentially leading to a future where devices operate based on user intent without traditional interfaces [6][12] Group 2: Company Strategies - ByteDance's collaboration with ZTE on the "Doubao AI Assistant" smartphone aims to enhance user experience by enabling advanced functionalities like game automation and smart device control [2][7] - Alibaba's launch of the Quark AI glasses, featuring the Qianwen assistant, marks its entry into the AI hardware space, emphasizing voice control capabilities [6][14] - Baidu leverages its search capabilities to enhance the functionality of AI glasses, allowing for voice-activated information retrieval, positioning itself uniquely in the market [15] Group 3: Challenges and Opportunities - The lack of hardware expertise among internet giants poses significant challenges in developing competitive AI hardware products [13][14] - Despite the challenges, companies like ByteDance and Alibaba have unique advantages, such as user traffic and established B2B relationships, which could facilitate their success in the hardware market [14][15] - The ongoing competition and regulatory hurdles highlight the need for companies to navigate the complex landscape of app permissions and user privacy while developing AI-enabled devices [11][12]

Core Viewpoint - The competition in the AI sector is shifting from large model parameters to the application of AI hardware and software, with major companies vying for the next generation of hardware entry points, particularly AI glasses [1][2]. Group 1: AI Hardware Competition - Major companies like Alibaba, ByteDance, and Baidu are rapidly developing AI glasses to establish a foothold in the AI hardware market, indicating a strategic shift towards integrating AI capabilities into consumer electronics [1][2]. - The AI glasses are seen as the next critical terminal after smartphones, with various startups and major firms entering the market to capture user engagement [2][6]. - The collaboration between ByteDance and ZTE on the "Doubao AI Assistant" smartphone exemplifies the trend of integrating AI capabilities into hardware, aiming to create a closed-loop system with smartphones and AI glasses [2][6]. Group 2: Challenges and Limitations - Current technological limitations prevent AI glasses from functioning independently of smartphones, necessitating a reliance on mobile devices for most operations [2][6]. - The integration of AI assistants with popular applications like WeChat faces significant regulatory hurdles, as seen with the restrictions imposed on the "Doubao AI Assistant" when interacting with WeChat [7][10]. - The competitive landscape is complicated by the need for hardware manufacturers to navigate the interests of app developers, which can lead to conflicts over user data and application access [11][12]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Future Prospects - The entry of internet giants into the hardware space raises questions about their long-term sustainability, especially given the high R&D costs and the potential for low returns on investment [12]. - Despite skepticism regarding their hardware capabilities, companies like ByteDance and Alibaba leverage their existing user bases to drive hardware sales, potentially offsetting some of the risks associated with hardware development [12][13]. - Baidu's strength in search capabilities positions it uniquely in the AI glasses market, as it can enhance the functionality of these devices through superior information retrieval [13].