点击小程序查看报告原文 黄金珠宝销售或继续受金价扰动，看好品牌、产品特色突出的品牌。 我们认为2026年黄金珠宝消费或继续受金价高位波动的影响，同时行业 销售基数也逐步恢复正常。2026年我们认为品牌将继续通过古法国潮等产品设计和工艺创新、IP联名、渠道形象优化等提升品牌竞争力。 产品创新也是OEM制造商获取份额的最大动力。 随着关税的落地，纺织制造行业的海外订单已逐步稳定。同时头部服装制造商的订单在下半 年开始持续回暖，我们认为这更多由于目前头部品牌对具备新功能的差异化产品的需求持续提升，具备研发优势的供应商也有望持续提升份 额。 风险提示： 国内终端需求波动，海外需求疲软，汇率变动，成本上涨。 Abstract 摘要 在2026年行业平稳发展的情况下，产品的创新和渠道的创新对服装品牌的增长将会起到至关重要的作用。 在2026年行业整体增长平稳，但线 下渠道流量分化加剧、行业产品供过于求的背景下：（1）我们看好以产品创新为基石、依托大店向消费者全面展示品牌形象，持续打造现象 级大店的优秀服装品牌；（2）看好依靠产品创新重塑品牌形象的黄金珠宝品牌，以及依靠产品和渠道的改变重新回到增长轨迹的名创优品； （3）产 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "A" rating for investment in the textile manufacturing industry, with specific buy recommendations for Shenzhou International (02313.HK), Yuanyuan Group (00551.HK), and Huali Group (300979.SZ) [1]. Core Insights - The global textile and apparel export value is approximately $900 billion, with an expected compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 3.2% from 2020 to 2024. The export value is projected to reach $882.7 billion by 2024 [2][16]. - The apparel manufacturing industry is experiencing a trend of vertical integration, with some mid-to-large companies extending upstream into weaving and dyeing processes, while the footwear industry remains more concentrated in competition [3][4]. - The report highlights that the sportswear manufacturing sector has a low concentration level, with vertical integration becoming a trend. Shenzhou International is identified as the largest sports knitwear manufacturer globally, with a production capacity of 550 million garments and revenue of 28.7 billion yuan in 2024 [4][9]. Summary by Sections Textile Manufacturing Overview - The global textile and apparel export value is around $900 billion, with the EU, the US, and Japan being the top three importers. The CAGR from 1989 to 2000 was 5.6%, while from 2014 to 2020, it slowed to -0.3% due to inventory destocking and pandemic impacts [16][19]. - The report notes that the textile manufacturing industry is shifting globally, with China's export share declining to 34% in 2023 [19][20]. Apparel Manufacturing Industry - The apparel manufacturing supply chain includes six main areas: fiber, spinning, weaving, dyeing, garment making, and retail. The trend is towards vertical integration, enhancing product development capabilities [36]. - Major apparel manufacturers have high customer concentration, with the largest customer accounting for about 30% of revenue for many companies [50][52]. - The report indicates that overseas production capacity is expanding, with Vietnam, Cambodia, and Indonesia being the primary locations for apparel manufacturing [55]. Footwear Manufacturing Industry - The footwear manufacturing industry has a higher concentration level, with leading companies like Yuanyuan Group dominating the market. In 2024, Yuanyuan Group is expected to produce 255 million pairs of shoes, generating revenue of $5.621 billion [4][9]. - The report emphasizes that the competition in the footwear sector is more concentrated compared to apparel, with fewer suppliers for footwear than for apparel [3][43]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends Shenzhou International due to its lower exposure to the US market and strong overseas fabric production capacity, which exceeds 50% [9]. - Yuanyuan Group is recommended for its strong upstream material control and potential for profit recovery as production capacity increases [9]. - Huali Group is noted for its average exposure to the US market and optimistic sales outlook due to new client acquisitions [9].

Core Viewpoint - The sports goods market is experiencing significant growth due to the booming sports event economy, with Guangdong's enterprises seizing the opportunity to expand exports [1] Group 1: Export Growth - Guangdong's sports goods and equipment exports have shown impressive year-on-year growth, with a reported increase of over 8.5% in the first eight months of the year, amounting to approximately 3.27 billion yuan [3] - Guangzhou Double Fish Sports Goods Group's export sales revenue for the first eight months increased by 10%, with plans to expand into cross-border e-commerce, expecting overall order volume to rise by over 20% compared to last year [2] - Qingyuan's Guangshuo Footwear Co., Ltd. reported a more than 100% increase in export value of sports shoes, reaching 1.08 billion yuan in the first eight months [2] Group 2: Product Specifics - The main exported products include table tennis equipment, basketball shoes, and various types of rackets, with significant demand in Southeast Asia and Europe [2][3] - Guangdong Haimao Innovation Technology Co., Ltd. experienced a 99.8% year-on-year increase in racket exports, totaling over 55 million yuan in the first eight months [3]

Core Insights - The Chinese football shoe market is experiencing significant growth driven by an increase in football participation and favorable policies, with production and sales both thriving [1][9] - Domestic brands are enhancing their R&D efforts and adopting new materials and advanced technologies, enabling them to compete with international brands [1][9] - The market is projected to reach a production volume of 115.86 million pairs and a sales revenue of 15.463 billion yuan in 2024, with further growth expected in 2025 [1][9] Industry Overview - Football shoes are specialized footwear for players, categorized based on the playing surface, including FG, AG, MG, and TF types [2][3] - The domestic market primarily offers MG and TF types, while FG and AG types are less common due to stringent surface requirements [5][9] Market Dynamics - The global football shoe market is also expanding, with a projected production of 233.42 million pairs and a market size of 6.446 billion USD in 2024 [7][9] - In China, the demand for football shoes is largely driven by amateur players, with 59.52 million pairs expected to be sold in 2024, contributing to a market size of approximately 6.708 billion yuan [11][9] Competitive Landscape - The competition in the Chinese football shoe market is characterized by international brands dominating the high-end segment, while domestic brands focus on cost-effectiveness and local market needs [21][26] - Domestic brands are increasingly investing in R&D to improve their product offerings and compete in the mid-range market [26][29] Policy Environment - Recent government policies aim to support the sports industry, including financial backing for sports manufacturing and encouraging participation in outdoor activities [18][20] Future Outlook - The demand for football shoes in China is expected to continue growing, with a structural trend of "amateur dominance and professional follow-up" [29] - Domestic brands are encouraged to enhance their material and design capabilities to penetrate the high-end market effectively [29]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the Jiangsu Province urban football league is expected to boost the football equipment market, driven by increasing fan enthusiasm and various supportive policies [1] - The football equipment industry serves both competitive and recreational football participants, with products including football shoes, apparel, protective gear, and professional match balls [1] - The industry has seen rapid growth due to policy benefits, consumption upgrades, technological innovations, and diverse event developments [1] Group 2 - Major manufacturing enterprises in the football equipment sector are concentrated in regions like Fujian Jinjiang and Guangdong Dongguan, indicating significant industrial clustering [1] - The market demand is primarily distributed in provinces such as Guangdong, Beijing, Shandong, Sichuan, and Jiangsu, showcasing notable regional differentiation [1] - The "Guiding Opinions on the Construction of Key Cities for National Football Development" aims for football to become a hallmark of China's sports strength by 2035 [1] Group 3 - The football equipment industry in China is relatively young and faces challenges such as weak international competitiveness and low collaboration within the industry chain [1] - Companies are encouraged to enhance innovation capabilities, develop differentiated strategies, and embrace new retail models to expand sales networks [2] - Establishing a supply chain alliance within the football equipment industry is essential to address raw material price fluctuations and new material development pressures [2] Group 4 - The ongoing league and rapid development of football culture are leading to the emergence of diverse products, including professional equipment and training tools, expanding the consumption ecosystem [3] - Companies should prepare for long-term consumer engagement beyond the peak of event enthusiasm by creating more competitive and appealing products [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the rapid growth of the football equipment industry in China, driven by policy support, consumer upgrades, and technological innovations [1][2] - The football equipment industry serves both competitive and recreational football participants, with products including football shoes, apparel, protective gear, and professional match balls [1] - Key cities for football equipment demand are concentrated in Guangdong, Beijing, Shandong, Sichuan, and Jiangsu, indicating significant regional differentiation [1] Group 2 - The industry faces challenges such as weak international competitiveness and low collaboration within the supply chain, necessitating a focus on innovation and problem-solving [2] - Companies are encouraged to enhance innovation capabilities, adopt new retail models, and develop smart wearable devices and specialized products for women and niche markets [2] - There is a call for increased financial support from relevant departments to foster long-term development in the football equipment sector and to strengthen intellectual property protection [2] Group 3 - The ongoing league and rapid development of football culture are leading to the emergence of diverse products, including professional equipment and training tools, expanding the consumption ecosystem around football [3] - Companies are advised to prepare for sustained consumer interest beyond the peak of events by creating competitive and appealing products [3]

Core Viewpoint - Puma, referred to as the "eternal third," is struggling to regain its competitive edge in the sportswear market, facing ongoing losses and declining sales despite efforts to diversify its product offerings [2][3]. Financial Performance - Puma has issued a profit warning, predicting losses for 2025 and lowering its annual sales forecast, with a projected decline of at least 10% after currency adjustments [3]. - In 2024, Puma's revenue grew by 4.4% to €8.817 billion, but net profit fell by 7.6% to €282 million. In 2023, sales increased by 6.6% to €8.6017 billion, while net profit dropped by 13.7% to €304.9 million [3]. - The company attributes its declining performance to weak sales and the impact of U.S. tariffs on gross profit [3]. Market Position and Competition - Puma ranks behind Nike and Adidas in global revenue, with Nike's revenue at $46.3 billion and Adidas at €23.683 billion for the fiscal year 2025 [5]. - The global athletic footwear market is projected to reach approximately $147.2 billion in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 5% [3]. - Competitors like Adidas and Lululemon have reported significant revenue growth, outperforming Puma [3]. Brand Strategy and Challenges - Puma is facing challenges in the sportswear market, where leading brands dominate the mass market while niche brands target high-end customers, leaving Puma in a difficult position [4]. - The company has struggled to maintain its historical strength in football, losing market share to Nike and Adidas, which have made substantial investments in sponsorships and athlete endorsements [6][7]. - Despite recent efforts to regain footing in football, including securing contracts with the Portuguese national team and becoming the official ball supplier for the Premier League, Puma's path to recovery remains challenging [8]. Expansion Efforts - Puma is also attempting to re-enter the basketball market and has launched new products aimed at the running segment, including the FAST-R NITRO ELITE running shoe [9][10]. - The company has initiated a cost efficiency plan called "Nextlevel," aiming to generate €75 million in one-time costs by 2025, which includes closing unprofitable stores [10]. - In China, Puma is accelerating its market strategy by appointing experienced executives to enhance its presence and product offerings [11].

Core Viewpoint - The rise of the Suzhou Super League (苏超) and Jiangxi Super League (赣超) has significantly revitalized local sports venues and promoted football popularity, leading to increased youth engagement and economic benefits in related industries [1][2][4]. Group 1: Event Popularity and Ticket Sales - The Jiangxi Super League's second round saw overwhelming ticket demand, with 30,000 tickets selling out instantly, and an additional 5,000 tickets also selling out quickly [1]. - The Suzhou Super League continues to attract massive interest, with a total of 1.36 million people participating in ticket purchases over two rounds [1]. Group 2: Venue Utilization and Development Plans - The popularity of these leagues has improved the utilization of existing sports venues, which were previously underused for events like concerts [2]. - Cities like Wuxi, Changzhou, and Suzhou have introduced three-year action plans to enhance football development, aiming for significant increases in participation and the establishment of professional clubs by 2027 [3][4]. Group 3: Economic Impact and Consumer Behavior - The surge in interest in the Suzhou Super League has led to a 60% increase in sales of football-related products on e-commerce platforms in Jiangsu Province [4]. - The events have stimulated local tourism and cultural activities, with significant increases in visitor numbers and spending during match days, such as 2.18 million visitors and a total consumption of 2.72 billion yuan in Nanjing [5]. Group 4: Integration of Sports and Local Economy - The integration of sports events with local consumption has been emphasized, with initiatives like the "浙BA" basketball league promoting consumer benefits through event attendance [6]. - The Jiangxi Super League is also focusing on creating a new ecosystem that combines sports, culture, and commerce, encouraging community participation in football events [5].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the enthusiasm for football in Jiangsu Province is driving a surge in sales of football-related products, with significant growth in professional training equipment [1] - Football shoes, footballs, and football socks are the top three products by sales volume, while various training aids have seen sales growth exceeding 60% year-on-year, indicating a trend towards professionalization in football consumption [1] - The primary consumer demographic for football products is individuals aged 36 to 45, accounting for over 50% of sales, followed by those aged 26 to 35 at 26.1%, reflecting both ongoing participation and parental demand for children's training equipment [1] Group 2 - Female consumers contribute 36.1% to football consumption, showing a significant preference for products like football apparel and sports skirts, highlighting the increasing participation and diverse needs of women in football [1] - Regional preferences in football product consumption are evident, with Guangdong, Beijing, Shandong, Sichuan, and Jiangsu being the top five areas for football equipment sales, each showing unique product preferences [1] - The trend of moving from general fitness to specialized training in football is expanding the consumption ecosystem, with a variety of professional equipment and fashion items emerging as the football culture develops [2]