| 童甜毒 | 2006 | | --- | --- | | 刘力宇 | הערות ה פ | | 孟璐 | | | 郭雨蒙 | Orodo | | 孙仁昊 | | | 赖思旭 | סטרונים | | 童明祺 | Disto | | | | | 投资要点 | | --- | 敏实集团是全球领先的汽车外饰件、车身结构件供应商。 基于多种新材料及表面处理技术，敏实形成了各类外饰件和车身结构件产品体系，并于2020年 整合设立金属饰条、塑件、铝件和电池盒四大产品线BU。目前，公司重点投资布局汽车电动 化领域，已成为全球最大的电池盒和车身结构件供应商；同时也在进一步着手布局人形机器 人、低空、液冷等领域，打开新的成长空间。客户方面，公司在业务发展和经营中凭借优秀的 产品品质和稳定的配套能力，积累了大量的优质客户资源，与国内外众多知名整车品牌建立了 良好的合作关系。 海外电动化加速公司电池盒业务发展。 电池盒是新能源汽车电池模块的承载体，对电池模块的安全工作和防护起着关键作用，是底盘 一体化的重要部件。当前，电池盒市场规模随着新能源汽车渗透率提升而持续增长，其中根据 我们的测算：2024年中国新能源乘用车电池盒市 ...

Core Conclusions - The 2026 automotive industry investment strategy emphasizes "breaking old and establishing new," suggesting that the industry is at a crossroads similar to 2011 and 2018, with the end of the electric vehicle (EV) boom and the rise of smart technology [2][3] - The report predicts a total domestic demand of 22 million vehicles in 2026, a decrease of 3.5% year-on-year, with new energy vehicle (NEV) sales expected to reach 13.2 million, an increase of 6.4% [2][10] - The commercial vehicle sector is expected to see a wholesale volume of 1.16 million units in 2026, with a slight increase of 1.5% year-on-year, while the bus sector is projected to maintain strong export growth [2][19] Passenger Vehicle Sector - The passenger vehicle sector is projected to experience a total sales volume of 22 million units in 2026, with NEV sales expected to reach 13.2 million units, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 6.4% [2][10] - The report highlights the impact of a 5% purchase tax on NEVs starting January 1, 2026, which is expected to support domestic demand [10] - Key investment opportunities include BYD and Jianghuai Automobile in the passenger vehicle sector [2][3] Commercial Vehicle Sector - The heavy truck segment is forecasted to have a wholesale volume of 1.16 million units in 2026, with domestic sales expected to decline by 5.5% to 770,000 units, while exports are projected to grow by 18.8% [2][15] - The bus sector is expected to see a total domestic sales volume of 81,000 units, with exports anticipated to grow by over 30% [2][19] Motorcycle Sector - The motorcycle industry is expected to achieve total sales of 19.38 million units in 2026, representing a year-on-year increase of 14%, with large-displacement motorcycles projected to grow by 31% [2][22] - Domestic sales of large-displacement motorcycles are expected to reach 430,000 units, while exports are projected to grow significantly [22] Investment Opportunities - The report identifies key investment opportunities across various segments, including Yutong Bus and King Long in the bus sector, and Spring Power and Longxin General in the motorcycle sector [2][3] - The focus on L4 RoboX investment opportunities highlights the importance of software over hardware in the autonomous driving sector, with recommended stocks including XPeng Motors and Horizon Robotics [2][3] Growth Trends - The report anticipates a continued focus on smart technology and robotics, with significant growth expected in the L4 RoboX industry and AIDC (Automated Identification and Data Capture) sectors [2][3] - The penetration rate of smart driving technology in new energy vehicles is expected to reach 40% by 2026, with a notable shift in chip supplier market shares [13][14]

Global Research Solid outlook for auto parts business Management believes that Minth's auto parts business possesses solid growth momentum, primarily driven by: 1) a comprehensive global capacity layout, which could mitigate potential impacts from trade friction risks and meets OEMs' requirements of localised supply, thereby supporting the overseas business expansion; 2) rising content value per vehicle through product integration and systematization; 3) active expansion in low-penetrated new regions, such ...

Core Viewpoint - The Shenzhen Stock Exchange has issued an inquiry letter regarding Ningbo Huaxiang's application for a specific stock issuance in 2025, focusing on the necessity and rationality of its fundraising projects, particularly the planned investment of nearly 3 billion yuan for capacity expansion despite a current utilization rate of about 70% [1] Group 1: Capacity Utilization and Expansion Plans - The current capacity utilization rate of Ningbo Huaxiang is approximately 70%, with a specific focus on the hot-formed metal parts utilization rate reaching 88% [1] - The company plans to raise nearly 3 billion yuan for capacity expansion, which raises questions about the necessity of such an investment given the existing utilization levels [1] Group 2: Project Justification and Market Strategy - The automotive parts industry generally requires suppliers to reserve 10% to 20% of capacity to handle unexpected orders, which justifies the company's expansion plans [1] - The projects in Wuhu and Chongqing, while both producing interior parts, target different local markets and are not considered duplicate investments [1] Group 3: Order Coverage and Client Base - The Wuhu project has secured orders for battery pack housings and body structure parts, covering 69.7% of the expected revenue upon reaching full production [1] - The Chongqing project's interior parts orders have an 80.5% coverage rate, with orders coming from major automotive companies such as Chery, BYD, and Seres, ensuring capacity utilization [1]

Core Viewpoint - The company, Haomei New Materials, plans to raise up to 1.897 billion yuan through a private placement to expand its production capacity for lightweight aluminum profiles and components in East and South China, enhance its R&D capabilities, and improve its operational efficiency in response to the growing demand in the automotive lightweight sector [1][2]. Group 1: Company Strategy and Expansion - The company aims to build production bases in East China to meet the local supply needs of automotive manufacturers, thereby reducing logistics costs and enhancing supply chain resilience [1][2]. - The expansion will include the development of a full-process production capability covering casting, extrusion, precision machining, and assembly, which aligns with the trend of localized supply chains in the automotive industry [1][2]. - The company is also focusing on increasing automation in precision processing to enhance product value and achieve a strategic goal of simultaneous growth in volume and price [2]. Group 2: Financial Performance and R&D Investment - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported total revenue of 5.582 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.40%, while net profit decreased by 16.68% to 143 million yuan [3]. - The company has increased its R&D expenditure to over 180 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 21.28%, indicating a strong commitment to innovation in the lightweight automotive sector [3]. - The company is actively pursuing opportunities in emerging markets, including establishing a joint venture in Morocco to supply components for the European and North African markets [3].

Core Viewpoint - The company plans to invest up to $150 million in Morocco to establish a production base for special alloy electronic materials, with an expected annual output of 30,000 tons. The project aims to meet the growing international demand from its top-tier clients and enhance its global operational capabilities [2][3]. Investment Details - The project is expected to commence in October 2026, with a construction period of 36 months and an anticipated return on investment of 16.72% [2]. - The investment requires approvals from both domestic authorities and relevant Moroccan departments [2]. Market Context - The decision to invest in Morocco comes after the company previously planned a similar investment in Vietnam, which was terminated due to unfavorable changes in international trade policies that affected the project's profitability [3]. - The primary target markets for the new production base are North America and Europe, where the company aims to capitalize on lower tariffs compared to other regions [3]. Competitive Advantage - Morocco's favorable trade agreements, including a free trade agreement with the U.S., position it as a strategic location for manufacturing, minimizing tariff impacts compared to Vietnam and other countries [3]. - Other companies, such as Reddick and Haomei New Materials, are also investing in Morocco, indicating a trend of increasing foreign investment in the region to enhance supply chain resilience [3]. Operational Considerations - The company acknowledges the differences in legal, commercial, and cultural environments between Morocco and China, which may pose risks related to regulatory changes and unforeseen circumstances [4]. - The company will closely monitor the investment approval process and implement strategies to mitigate operational risks [4].

Summary of Minth's Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Minth - **Industry**: Automotive Parts Manufacturing - **Established**: 1992 - **Core Business**: Design, manufacturing, and sales of auto trims, decorative parts, body structural parts, and other auto parts - **Production Facilities**: Over 40 in China and overseas - **Sales Composition (2024)**: - Trims & Metal Parts: 24% - Aluminum Parts: 21% - Plastic Parts: 25% - Battery Housing: 23% - Others: 6% [10][11] Key Developments - **Liquid Cooling Orders**: - Announced new orders for liquid cooling systems for AI servers from two Taiwanese manufacturers, with deliveries starting by end-2025 [1][14] - This marks Minth's entry into the AI Data Center (AIDC) sector [1] - Expected revenue from liquid cooling for AI servers to be minimal in 2025, reaching RMB 200-300 million in 2026 [1] - **Battery Housing Growth**: - Anticipated sustained sales growth in Europe for battery housing, leveraging plants in Serbia and France [2] - NEV wholesale volume in Europe grew 37% YoY in August 2025 [2] - Minth holds over 30% market share in the European battery housing market, with European sales accounting for approximately 60% of total battery sales in 2024 [2] Financial Performance and Projections - **Earnings Estimates**: - EPS estimates for 2025/26/27 raised by 1%/2%/3% due to new liquid cooling orders [3][18] - New price objective (PO) set at HK$43, up from HK$36, reflecting confidence in business model transition [3][21] - **Revenue and Profit Projections**: - 2025E Revenue: RMB 26,277 million - 2026E Revenue: RMB 29,998 million - 2027E Revenue: RMB 33,580 million - 2025E Net Income: RMB 2,768 million - 2026E Net Income: RMB 3,430 million - 2027E Net Income: RMB 3,872 million [4][19] - **Key Ratios**: - Expected EPS growth of 19% in 2025 and 24% in 2026 [20] - Operating margin projected to improve to 15% by 2027 [20] Investment Rationale - **Buy Rating**: - Solid revenue growth from both traditional and new battery housing businesses [11] - Anticipated 17% earnings CAGR from 2025 to 2027 [11] - Expansion into various sectors including AI servers and humanoid robots [3][11] Risks and Considerations - **Downside Risks**: - Increasing trade tariffs from China and Mexico to the US - Volatile margins in overseas plants - Lower margins in the battery housing business - Foreign exchange volatility [27] Conclusion - Minth is positioned for growth with its expansion into AI server cooling systems and sustained momentum in battery housing sales. The company is expected to deliver strong earnings growth, supported by a diversified product portfolio and strategic market positioning. The new price objective reflects confidence in its evolving business model and potential for re-rating in the market.

Core Viewpoint - Minth Group (00425) has seen a stock price increase of over 4%, currently trading at 37.6 HKD with a transaction volume of 45.05 million HKD, following the announcement of new orders related to AI server cooling technology [1] Group 1: Company Developments - The company's subsidiary, Precision Industries, has recently secured orders from a Taiwanese AI server manufacturer for the design, development, and production of immersion liquid cooling cabinets [1] - Precision Industries has successfully passed the technical validation for the immersion liquid cooling cabinets, with the first batch of products expected to be delivered by mid-November 2025 [1] - The group has also passed the technical validation for a splitter from another Taiwanese AI server liquid cooling system manufacturer and has received related orders, with the first batch expected to be delivered by the end of December 2025 [1] Group 2: Business Overview - The company is recognized as a global leader in automotive exterior and body structure components, with a diversified product line including plastic parts, metal and decorative parts, aluminum components, and battery boxes [1] - The traditional business has shown steady growth, while the battery box segment is expected to benefit from the increase in electric vehicle production in Europe, contributing to profit elasticity [1] - The company is actively exploring new markets such as low-altitude, robotics, and AI liquid cooling, which may form a third growth curve for the business [1]

Core Viewpoint - Minth Group (00425) has seen a stock price increase of over 4%, currently trading at 37.6 HKD, following the announcement of new orders for AI server immersion cooling cabinets from a Taiwanese AI server manufacturer [1] Group 1: Company Developments - Minth Group's subsidiary, Precision Industry, has received orders for the design, development, and production of AI server immersion cooling cabinets, with technical validation already completed [1] - The first batch of products is expected to be delivered by mid-November 2025 [1] - Additionally, the group has passed technical validation for a splitter from another Taiwanese AI server liquid cooling system manufacturer, with initial product deliveries anticipated by the end of December 2025 [1] Group 2: Market Position and Growth Potential - Minth Group is recognized as a global leader in automotive exterior and body structure components, with a diversified product line including plastic parts, metal and decorative parts, aluminum components, and battery boxes [1] - The traditional business has shown steady growth, while the battery box segment is expected to benefit from the increase in electric vehicle production in Europe, contributing to profit elasticity [1] - The company is actively exploring new markets such as low-altitude, robotics, and AI liquid cooling, which may create a third growth curve [1]

Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 5.582 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 15.40% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 143 million yuan, with a non-recurring net profit of 140 million yuan [1] - Operating cash flow net amount increased by 244.47% to 74.05 million yuan, indicating significant improvement in cash flow management [1] Automotive Lightweight Business - The automotive lightweight business has established a full industry chain layout of "materials-components-systems," generating a revenue of 962 million yuan in the first half of the year with a gross margin of 14.16%, nearly 10 percentage points higher than traditional industrial profiles [1] - The company has formed a "domestic + overseas" dual-base pattern with its Wuhu base in Anhui and a joint venture factory in Morocco, supplying high-value-added products to leading automotive companies [1] - The company is positioned to benefit from the increasing penetration rate of new energy vehicles [1] System Windows Business - The recovery in consumer demand and policy incentives provide strong support for the system windows segment [1] - The Beikelo brand achieved a revenue of 303 million yuan in the first half of the year, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 27.95% through a dual-driven approach of "engineering + retail" [1] - The energy-saving performance indicators of system windows have reached industry-leading levels, aligning with the trend of increasing green building penetration under the "dual carbon" policy [1] R&D Investment - The company has continuously increased its R&D investment, with expenses exceeding 180 million yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 21.28% [2] - The company is accelerating the construction of the "automotive lightweight components production base in East China" through changes in fundraising projects, creating a positive cycle of capacity expansion and technological innovation [2] - This investment is expected to provide solid support for the company's long-term value development [2]