转自：智通财经 智通财经9月3日讯（编辑 齐灵）以下为各家券商对美股的最新评级和目标价： 目标价71.20美元。公司2QFY26业绩符合预期，数据中心业务创新高，光电互连产品需求旺盛，1.6T产 品开始出货。尽管3QFY26 ASIC业务指引偏弱，但长期受益AI定制芯片市场扩容，已获18个XPU项 目，未来18-24个月有望贡献数十亿美元收入。企业网络与运营商基础设施业务复苏，支撑业绩增长。 下调26-28年盈利预测，考虑短期增长承压，给予25x 26年调整后PE，维持"增持"评级。 （智通财经 齐灵） 海通国际维持霸王茶姬（CHA.O）优于大市评级，目标价22.7美元： 公司2Q收入33.3亿元，同比+10%，经调净利6.3亿元，同比持平。大中华门店扩张至7038间，同比增长 41%，海外业务GMV同比+77%，进入印尼及美国市场。品牌策略致单店GMV下滑，但核心客群稳健。 因外卖补贴减少及海外拓展成本，下调25-27年盈利预测，预计利润率承压。考虑增速放缓，下调估值 至2025年12倍PE，目标市值42亿美元，对应目标价22.7美元，维持评级。 第一上海维持特斯拉（TSLA.O）买入评级： 特斯拉持续推进 ...

Core Insights - The AI industry chain companies have shown varied performance in their mid-year reports, with a long-term positive trend driven by AI [1] - Approximately two-thirds of the 85 listed AI companies reported profits, with 15 companies experiencing net profit growth exceeding 100%, primarily in the computing infrastructure sector [1][2] Group 1: AI Infrastructure Performance - The AI infrastructure sector has seen significant growth, particularly in semiconductor and server manufacturers, driven by applications like DeepSeek [2] - Chinese AI semiconductor company Cambricon reported a revenue of 2.881 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4347.82%, and a net profit of 1.038 billion yuan, marking its first profitable half-year [2] - Another leading domestic AI chip company, Haiguang Information, achieved a revenue of 3.763 billion yuan, up 44.08% year-on-year, with a net profit of 853 million yuan, a 25.97% increase [2] Group 2: Market Trends and Shifts - The demand for AI computing chips is surging, with local chips gaining market recognition, which is further boosting the performance of upstream wafer foundries [4] - Semiconductor manufacturer SMIC reported a revenue of 32.35 billion yuan, a 23.1% year-on-year increase, and a net profit of 1.9 billion yuan, up 47.8% [4] - Huahong Semiconductor's revenue for the first half of 2025 was 8.018 billion yuan, a 19.09% increase, but its net profit fell by 71.95% due to initial production costs and increased R&D expenses [4] Group 3: AI Model Development and Investment - Major internet companies like Alibaba and Tencent are enhancing AI model capabilities, leading to increased infrastructure demand, with Alibaba's capital expenditure reaching 38.7 billion yuan and Tencent's rising 119% year-on-year to 19.11 billion yuan [5] - The market is shifting from AI training to AI inference, with the demand ratio changing from 80% training to 70% inference [6][7] - The Chinese AI server market is experiencing rapid growth, with Inspur's revenue reaching 80.192 billion yuan, a 90.05% increase [7] Group 4: Policy and Future Outlook - The Chinese government has initiated the "Artificial Intelligence +" action plan, aiming for widespread integration of AI in six key areas by 2027, with a target application rate exceeding 70% for new intelligent terminals and agents [8][9] - This policy is expected to catalyze the comprehensive rollout of AI applications across various sectors, enhancing demand and ecosystem development [9]

Core Viewpoint - Alibaba's latest financial report indicates a 18% year-on-year decline in Non-GAAP net profit, but its core business shows strong resilience, particularly in cloud services and the rapid growth of Taobao Flash Sales [1][2]. Financial Performance - In Q2, Alibaba's total revenue reached 247.7 billion RMB, with a 10% year-on-year increase in customer management revenue from its Chinese e-commerce business [14][17]. - The adjusted EBITDA decreased by 14%, primarily due to strategic investments in expanding the instant retail business [15]. - Free cash flow showed a net outflow of 18.8 billion RMB, attributed to accelerated AI expansion and increased capital expenditures [16]. Business Highlights - Cloud business revenue grew by 26% year-on-year to 33.4 billion RMB, driven by AI-related services, which now contribute over 20% of external commercial revenue [2][7]. - Taobao Flash Sales, launched four months ago, has achieved over 300 million monthly active users, a 200% increase since April, with daily average orders reaching 120 million in July [1][24]. - The company plans to integrate over one million offline brand stores into its instant retail platform, potentially generating an additional 1 trillion RMB in transaction volume over the next three years [2][29]. Strategic Investments - Alibaba has committed to investing 380 billion RMB in AI capital expenditures over the next three years, with over 100 billion RMB already spent on AI infrastructure and product development [2][11]. - The company is focusing on building a comprehensive consumption platform that leverages AI and cloud technology to enhance user experience and operational efficiency [10][20]. Market Positioning - Alibaba aims to capture the growing demand for instant retail and AI services, positioning itself as a key player in the evolving e-commerce landscape [13][50]. - The integration of various business units, including Taobao and Tmall, is expected to enhance consumer experience and drive long-term growth [10][20]. Future Outlook - The company anticipates that the combination of AI and cloud services will create significant opportunities in the next decade, with a focus on enhancing its competitive edge in the market [12][13]. - Alibaba's strategic investments in both AI and consumer markets are expected to yield substantial returns, balancing short-term and long-term growth objectives [50].

Core Insights - The company has achieved significant growth in its instant retail business, with monthly active users of Taobao Flash Purchase exceeding 300 million, a 200% increase compared to before April [3][4] - The cloud business has shown resilience, with revenue growth of 26% year-on-year, driven by strong demand for AI-related products [3][6] - The company plans to invest 380 billion RMB in AI infrastructure over the next three years, with a focus on diversifying supply chains to mitigate risks [4][11] Group 1: Instant Retail Business - Taobao Flash Purchase has reached a daily average order volume of 120 million in July, maintaining around 80 million in August [3][24] - The number of active riders for the flash purchase service has tripled to 2 million since April, indicating significant operational expansion [3][4] - The company anticipates over 1 trillion RMB in new transaction volume from integrating more than one million offline brand stores into the instant retail platform over the next three years [4][28] Group 2: Cloud Business - The cloud segment's revenue reached 333.98 billion RMB, with AI-related revenue contributing over 20% to external commercial income [4][18] - The company has invested over 100 billion RMB in AI infrastructure and product development over the past four quarters, with plans for continued investment [11][35] - The cloud business is expected to maintain strong growth momentum, driven by increasing demand for AI applications and services [32][34] Group 3: Financial Performance - The company's Non-GAAP net profit decreased by 18% year-on-year, but core business revenues remained strong [3][15] - The adjusted EBITDA margin for the cloud segment stabilized at 8.8%, reflecting operational efficiency improvements [18] - Free cash flow showed a net outflow of 18.8 billion RMB, primarily due to accelerated investments in AI and infrastructure [15][19] Group 4: Strategic Initiatives - The company is integrating various business units, including Taobao and Tmall, to create a comprehensive consumer platform that enhances user experience [10][19] - A new loyalty program has been launched to connect different business units, improving customer engagement across platforms [16][19] - The company is focusing on enhancing operational efficiency and profitability while expanding its instant retail and cloud services [14][19]

Core Insights - Alibaba's management revealed that Taobao Flash Sale has surpassed 300 million monthly active users within four months of launch, achieving a 200% increase compared to before April, exceeding initial targets [1][9] - The company is preparing backup plans for global AI chip supply and policy changes, establishing a diversified supply chain to ensure the timely execution of its investment plans [2][10] - Alibaba's latest financial report shows a 18% year-on-year decline in Non-GAAP net profit for Q2, but core businesses demonstrate strong resilience, with cloud revenue growing by 26% and Taobao Flash Sale being a significant driver of user growth [1][16] Financial Performance - Total revenue for the quarter reached 247.7 billion RMB, with a 10% year-on-year increase in customer management revenue for the Chinese e-commerce business [12][14] - Cloud revenue increased by 26% to 33.398 billion RMB, driven by strong demand for AI-related products, which accounted for over 20% of external commercial revenue [1][16] - Adjusted EBITDA decreased by 14%, primarily due to strategic focus on rapidly expanding the flash sale business, which is expected to capture new consumer patterns [13][16] Business Developments - The company plans to invest 380 billion RMB in AI capital expenditures over the next three years, with quarterly investment amounts subject to supply chain fluctuations [2][11] - Taobao Flash Sale's daily average order volume reached 120 million in July, maintaining an average of 80 million orders per week in August, with active riders increasing to 2 million, tripling since April [1][9] - The integration of Taobao and Tmall, along with the strategic merger of Ele.me and Fliggy, aims to create a comprehensive consumer platform, enhancing user experience and operational efficiency [8][12] AI and Cloud Strategy - Alibaba has invested over 100 billion RMB in AI infrastructure and product development over the past four quarters, with AI-related revenue continuing to grow at a triple-digit rate [5][10] - The company emphasizes the importance of AI in driving cloud revenue growth, with AI applications accelerating demand for traditional products such as computing and storage [5][10] - A strategic partnership with SAP focuses on cloud and AI, allowing SAP customers to utilize Alibaba's platform for core software management [6][10] Future Outlook - Alibaba anticipates that over one million offline brand stores will join the flash sale platform within the next three years, potentially generating an additional 1 trillion RMB in transaction volume [1][27] - The company aims to create a comprehensive consumption platform to meet the needs of one billion consumers, targeting a market potential of 30 trillion RMB [10][11] - Management believes that the integration of AI and cloud services will provide significant opportunities for growth in the next decade, with a commitment to maintaining a healthy balance sheet and strong cash flow [18][48]

Core Insights - OpenAI has officially launched its new flagship AI model, GPT-5, marking a significant step towards achieving general artificial intelligence (AGI) [2] - The release emphasizes practical applications rather than technical specifications, showcasing improvements in programming, creative writing, and health consultation capabilities [3][5] - The launch of GPT-5 has heightened expectations for competing models, particularly DeepSeek's upcoming R2 model, which has faced delays [2][8] Group 1: GPT-5 Features and Performance - GPT-5 has shown significant enhancements in three key areas: programming, creative writing, and health consultation, with capabilities such as creating responsive websites and identifying potential health issues [3][5] - OpenAI has not disclosed the model parameters, focusing instead on the model's ability to integrate into various real-world applications [3][5] - The model is available in four versions: GPT-5, GPT-5 mini, GPT-5 nano, and GPT-5 chat, with different usage limits and subscription options for consumers [5][6] Group 2: Market Impact and Competition - Following the release of GPT-5, OpenAI's dominance in the AI model market is expected to strengthen, as evidenced by ChatGPT's leading position in user traffic [7][8] - DeepSeek, despite being a previous leader, has seen a decline in user engagement and is under pressure to release its R2 model to remain competitive [8][10] - Other companies in the industry are rapidly launching new models, indicating a highly competitive landscape where DeepSeek must accelerate its development to keep pace [9][10]

今日A股AI基建板块全线飙涨，液冷服务器、CPO领涨，工业富联盘中触及涨停续创历史新高，市值突破7000亿元，中际旭创涨超6%，新易盛涨2.87%。 ETF方面，创业板人工智能ETF富国、云计算ETF华泰柏瑞、国泰基金通信ETF、创业板人工智能ETF华宝、创业板人工智能ETF国泰、新华基金云50ETF、 云计算ETF沪港深、创业板人工智能ETF华夏、广发基金云计算50ETF、创业板人工智能ETF南方均涨超3%。 消息面上，Meta业绩超预期、指引强劲，上调全年资本支出下限，盘后大涨12%。广告收入 465 亿美元，同比增长 23%，超预期的 440.7 亿美元，主要受益 于 AI 驱动的广告精准投放和用户增长（日活跃用户数达 34.8 亿，同比增长 6%）。 Meta将资本支出计划上调至 660-720 亿美元（原 640-720 亿美元），2026 年预计超 1000 亿美元，重点投入 AI 基础设施和数据中心。 管理层表示，AI 将成为广告效率和元宇宙体验的核心驱动力，计划在 2026 年推出多款 AI 原生应用。 二季度微软营收创一年半最高季增速，营收764.4 亿美元，同比增长 18%，超预期的 73 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Alibaba (BABA) [2][12][24] Core Insights - The company is increasing investments in flash sales and instant retail, with AI driving cloud intelligence growth [1][12] - Short-term EBITA pressure is expected for Taotian due to increased investments, but this will help cultivate consumer awareness and activate local consumption [8][12] - Strong growth in cloud revenue is anticipated, driven by rising domestic AI demand and enhanced model capabilities [9][10][12] - The international business is expected to maintain healthy growth while balancing investment efficiency to improve profitability [11][12] Financial Data and Earnings Forecast - For FY26E, the revenue forecast is Rmb1,067.8 billion, with a YoY growth rate of 7.2% [15] - Non-GAAP net profit for FY26E is projected at Rmb137.2 billion, reflecting a decline of 13.4% YoY [15] - The adjusted EPS for FY26E is expected to be Rmb56.82 [15] - The target price is set at $138 per share, indicating a 33% upside potential [12][15]

Core Viewpoint - Honor has launched its new flagship foldable smartphone, Honor Magic V5, which integrates Alibaba's large models and vertical scene agents for the first time in a smartphone [1][2] Group 1: Product Features - Honor Magic V5 is equipped with Alibaba's Tongyi Qianwen-based intelligent agents, including Gaode and Fliggy Travel, marking a significant integration of AI technology into mobile devices [1] - The device features the "One Voice Ask Screen" function, allowing users to upload documents for in-depth Q&A and online searches through the Honor AI assistant, YOYO [1] - The smartphone supports various interactive scenarios, including voice practice and real-time interaction with the physical world through video mode [1] Group 2: Agent Capabilities - The Fliggy Travel agent is specifically designed for Honor Magic V5, enabling users to plan trips, discover destinations, and receive recommendations for nearby attractions and dining [1] - The Fliggy agent also facilitates quick bookings for train tickets, flights, and hotels, enhancing the travel experience for users [1] - The Gaode agent, developed by Gaode Cloud Map, focuses on providing location-based recommendations for dining, entertainment, and integrated travel services, with ongoing expansion into more scenarios [2]

Core Insights - Alibaba is making a significant investment in AI and cloud computing, planning to invest over 380 billion yuan in the next three years, marking the largest investment by a private company in China in this sector [2][5] - Despite facing intense competition in e-commerce, Alibaba has managed to maintain its market position while successfully expanding into the AI domain [2][3] Investment and Growth - Alibaba's AI revenue has seen triple-digit growth over the past seven quarters, with each quarter exceeding 100% growth [3] - The launch of the Tongyi Qianwen 3 model has positioned it as the top open-source model globally, outperforming leading models like OpenAI's [3] - As of April this year, Alibaba has open-sourced over 200 models, achieving over 300 million downloads, making it the largest open-source model family [3] AI Applications and Integration - The AI coding assistant "Tongyi Lingma" has gained widespread adoption among enterprise clients, becoming the most popular programming tool in China [4] - AI is being integrated across Alibaba's various business sectors, with tools like "Full Site Promotion" on Taobao and Ele.me's "Rider AI Assistant" improving operational efficiency [4] Historical Context and Strategy - Alibaba's early investment in AI began in 2007 with the establishment of the iDST, followed by the creation of DAMO Academy in 2017, which has been crucial for its current achievements [5] - The company has invested over 324.7 billion yuan in cloud and AI infrastructure over the past decade, with plans for an additional 380 billion yuan in the next three years [5] Challenges and Competition - Alibaba faces significant challenges, including the need for substantial capital investment in AI infrastructure, which may not yield immediate returns [7] - The company is also contending with competition from domestic startups and major tech firms like Tencent and ByteDance, as well as international giants like OpenAI and Google [9][10] Future Directions - Alibaba plans to focus on AI infrastructure, native applications, deep integration of AI into its business, and building an AI ecosystem to enhance efficiency and user experience [12] - The company aims to develop killer applications that could surpass existing popular platforms like Douyin [12] Conclusion - Alibaba's commitment to AI reflects its belief in the technology's potential to drive future growth, as highlighted by industry leaders like Ren Zhengfei [13]