摘要： 产业观察 [table_Header]2026.02.27 风起青萍，拥抱趋势，空天产业 2026 年十大展望 产业研究中心 [商业航天展望 Table_Summary] 低空经济展望 风险提示 1）可复用火箭研制及回收试验不及预期；2）巨型星座组网进度及商业化 落地缓慢；3）工业无人机市场竞争加剧致盈利持续承压；4）重型无人机 及 eVTOL 适航取证与场景落地不及预期。 | [Table_Authors] | 周天乐(分析师) | | | --- | --- | --- | | 0755-23976003 | | | | zhoutianle@gtht.com | 登记编号 | S0880520010003 | | 徐淋(分析师) | | | | 021-38677826 | | | | xulin4@gtht.com | 登记编号 | | | S0880523090005 | | | | 肖洁(分析师) | | | | | xiaojie3@gtht.com | | --- | --- | | 登记编号 | 021-38674660 S0880513080002 | [Table_Report] ...

Group 1 - Musk's SpaceX has applied to the FCC for a plan to launch 1 million satellites, which is seen as a move to compete with China's satellite spectrum application [1][2] - The FCC has begun processing SpaceX's application, with public comments due by March 6, indicating regulatory support for Musk's ambitious project [2] - The plan aims to advance humanity towards a "Type II Kardashev civilization," which involves harnessing energy from entire star systems [4] Group 2 - The satellites are not ordinary communication satellites but are designed as powerful space servers, providing significant computational capabilities for AI models [6] - Once operational, the satellite network could deliver computational power equivalent to over 80 million top-tier servers, far exceeding current terrestrial capabilities [6] - Musk's vision transcends national competition, aiming to elevate human civilization as a whole, positioning SpaceX as a leader in this technological frontier [6] Group 3 - China has lost the lead in developing a satellite network, with Musk's plans dominating low Earth orbit spectrum, while China's recent application for 200,000 satellites is seen as a response to this disadvantage [8] - Despite missing the initial opportunity, China is rapidly advancing its own space computing capabilities, having launched its first batch of 12 computing satellites in May 2025 [9] - China's satellite system has demonstrated significant computational power, achieving capabilities equivalent to at least 5 million high-performance servers [9][10]

【今日速览】 ①SpaceX百万颗算力卫星计划曝光，催生100GW太空光伏年需求，设备商迎订单拐点，机构建议关 注三条主线； ②进口依存度高达75%！这种关键金属拟纳入国家战略储备，核心受益企业已圈出； ③氢能成"十五五"主攻方向，把握价值释放关键窗口； ④"新农具"有新机遇，农业无人机站上政策风口。 点击付费阅读，解锁市场最强音，把握投资机会！ 太空光伏｜SpaceX百万颗算力卫星计划曝光，催生100GW太空光伏年需求，设备商迎订单拐 点，机构建议关注三条主线 ①太空算力已成为成本最低、效率最高的AI算力建设模式，SpaceX启动百万颗算力卫星布局 ②太空光伏需求预期不断强化，设备先行订单有望大规模落地 全球卫星部署有望进入高速轨道，随通信卫星向算力卫星升级，太空光伏需求有望持续高增，建议关 注光伏设备供应商迈为股份（300751.SZ）、捷佳伟创（300724.SZ）、奥特维（688516.SH）、高 测股份（688556.SH）、帝尔激光（300776.SZ）；高效换热器供应商双良节能（600481.SH）；光 伏电池供应商钧达股份（002865.SZ）、东方日升（300118.SZ）、明阳智能（601 ...

2月3日，商业航天板块再度获得市场青睐，资金净流入136亿元，居市场首位。机构认为，在AI算力需 求持续外溢、地面算力基础设施约束日益凸显的背景下，商业航天逐渐成为全球科技巨头竞逐"算力布 局"的战略高地。 近期，围绕"算力上太空"的多重重磅消息密集落地，成为商业航天板块走强的直接催化。马斯克推动 SpaceX与xAI合并，SpaceX申请部署百万颗算力卫星，以及OpenAI、Meta、微软等科技巨头同步上调 AI资本开支预期，共同强化了太空算力商业化加速落地的市场预期，商业航天需求空间再度扩容。 机构提示，可围绕"太空算力产业链"进行分层投资布局： 一是算力卫星与核心通信环节。重点关注星间激光通信、高可靠电子与信息处理系统相关标的，如铖昌 科技、航天科技等，直接受益于算力卫星对高速组网与数据处理能力的需求提升。 二是卫星制造与关键材料方向。算力卫星数量放量将显著拉动高性能材料与核心部件需求，菲利华、天 银机电等在航天材料或卫星配套领域具备技术积累的企业有望受益。 从上涨逻辑来看，AI资本开支外溢，是商业航天行情的重要催化因素。当前地面数据中心正面临能源 成本高企、用电指标受限与散热效率下降等现实瓶颈，而太空 ...

Group 1: Copper Industry - The market believes that the probability of the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates in March 2026 is low; short-term declines in gold and silver may negatively impact overall commodity sentiment [5] - Cable companies' operating rates have rebounded week-on-week, but demand may weaken as the Spring Festival approaches; copper prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term [5] - The supply-demand tightness in 2026 remains unchanged, and there is continued optimism for copper price increases [5] Group 2: Commercial Aerospace - SpaceX plans to deploy one million computing power satellites, further expanding the commercial aerospace demand space [5] - The manufacturing and launch capabilities of reusable rockets are fundamental for large-scale constellation construction [5] - Laser communication networks are key to achieving large-scale inter-satellite communication [5] Group 3: Jiuri New Materials (688199.SH) - Jiuri New Materials expects to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of 21 to 31.5 million yuan in 2025, turning from loss to profit year-on-year [5] - The company anticipates a net profit of 14.4 to 21.6 million yuan after deducting non-recurring gains and losses, also turning from loss to profit year-on-year [5] - The recovery in the price of photoinitiators and the gradual production of new projects are solidifying the company's leading position in the industry [5] Group 4: Keda Manufacturing (600499.SH) - Keda Manufacturing is planning a major asset restructuring to acquire 51.55% of the shares of Tef International, aiming to hold 100% of the shares post-transaction [7] - The transaction is expected to significantly enhance the company's net profit attributable to shareholders [7] Group 5: Tesla (TSLA.O) - Tesla's total revenue for 2025 decreased by 2.9% year-on-year to $94.83 billion, while the Non-GAAP net profit fell by 26.4% to $5.86 billion [8] - In Q4 2025, Tesla's total revenue decreased by 3.1% year-on-year and 11.4% quarter-on-quarter to $24.9 billion, with a Non-GAAP net profit decline of 16.4% year-on-year to $1.76 billion [8] Group 6: Apple (AAPL.O) - Apple's FY1Q26 performance exceeded expectations, driven by strong demand for the iPhone 17 series and the continued penetration of AI features [8] - Despite rising storage costs, Apple managed to maintain and even increase its gross margin through product mix optimization and high-margin service business [8] Group 7: Ausnutria (1717.HK) - Ausnutria is expected to see a 1.1% year-on-year revenue growth in 2025, with a slowdown in growth primarily due to domestic milk powder business challenges [9] - The company's net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to remain flat year-on-year, with a decline in H2 2025 profits due to slower internal code adjustment progress and intensified industry competition [9]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the commercial aerospace industry, highlighting the transition into a second phase of investment with a significant acceleration in fundamentals exceeding expectations [1][4]. Core Insights and Arguments - The T/S orders, domestic satellite constellations, and rocket launch progress have become unexpectedly critical elements in determining investment opportunities [1][5]. - The current market perception is misaligned, as it continues to extrapolate launch volumes linearly, while the demand for space computing power suggests a need for a more nuanced approach, projecting a requirement of 5-10 GW for mid-term outlooks [5]. - This translates to a forecast of tens of thousands of satellites and nearly 10,000 rocket launches annually, with a vision of one million units of embodied intelligence per year [5]. Investment Opportunities - Leading companies such as Feiwo Technology, Western Materials, and Aerospace Power are identified as having strong cost-performance advantages, warranting increased attention [6][9]. - The SpaceX plan for a million-satellite system emphasizes the importance of solar energy utilization, positioning communication satellites and computing satellites as vehicles for advancing civilization through photonic conversion [6]. - The domestic photovoltaic industry is expected to benefit significantly from the demand for space photovoltaic applications, leading to an expansion of overseas production capacity and a rise in the scale of specialized products distinct from terrestrial needs [6]. Market Dynamics - The upstream segment, particularly in engine materials, is expected to see changes in demand for scarce metals as rocket demand increases [7]. - The midstream equipment sector is experiencing significant marginal changes, particularly in engines and 3D printing, driven by scarcity and long-term inflationary logic [7]. - The downstream segment is witnessing accelerated progress among listed companies, with a focus on resolving capacity bottlenecks in the commercial rocket sector, indicating a potential for exceeding production expectations [8]. Strategic Developments - The report notes the acceleration of the space race, with a focus on core positioning in rockets and satellites, particularly in light of SpaceX's application for a million-satellite constellation and the establishment of an orbital AI data center network [10][12]. - The Chinese government is pushing for breakthroughs in the aerospace sector, with plans announced for the construction of a "Rocket Star City" in Shanghai, aiming for an annual production capacity of 80 rockets and 200 satellites by 2027, and 150 rockets and 500 satellites by 2030 [11]. Additional Considerations - The report suggests monitoring developments in laser communication as a potential area of growth [13]. - The challenges posed by the scale of a million-satellite system to existing space traffic management rules and the need for stringent collision avoidance standards are highlighted as critical sustainability considerations [14][15].

航天宏图 20260123 摘要 航天宏图计划采购 6 颗雷达卫星，总金额约 6 亿元，并与上海蓝星光域 合作研发卫星激光通信系统，目前已有四颗卫星使用其模块并调试中， 旨在提升卫星通信能力。 公司积极拓展国际市场，与非洲某国签订合作协议，并与尼日利亚国防 部进行技术交流，同时推动与印尼的碳汇监测卫星项目，雷达卫星在国 外应用需求增加，预计带来较好的回款和盈利能力。 航天宏图应收账款主要来自政府项目，金额较小且稳定，公司通过国家 化债政策和法律手段降低应收账款比例，以确保财务健康。 研发投入占比从 2025 年的 20%上升到 2026 年的 40%，主要用于提 升技术水平和产品竞争力，如激光通信系统和算力卫星，预计未来将转 化为实际效益，提高市场竞争力和盈利能力。 公司预计 2026 年和 2027 年，卫星操作系统等研发成果将逐步转化为 收入，应用于客户提供的卫星设计和制造中，有助于逐步实现盈利。 与苏州政府签订的 28 亿元项目，包括卫星和火箭，第一期投资 12 亿元， 航天宏图将获得 6 亿元的卫星订单，预计春节前后签订，交付周期约一 年，毛利率尚未明确。 2026 年计划发射 10 颗以上雷达卫星及 ...

Core Viewpoint - Shunhao Co., Ltd. is focusing on the development of a giant computing power satellite constellation in the dawn-dusk orbit, which aligns with global trends in space computing power [1] Group 1: Project Overview - The project, named "Tian Guang," is the first incubated industrial project by the Beijing Xingchen Future Space Technology Research Institute [1] - It aims to leverage the unique characteristics of the dawn-dusk orbit to provide continuous solar power supply 24/7 [1] Group 2: Technological Innovations - The project utilizes new gallium arsenide solar cells to significantly enhance the power density of the satellites [1] - Innovative radiative cooling plates and two-phase fluid loop technology have been developed to efficiently dissipate waste heat into the cold environment of space, reducing reliance on ground data centers for cooling [1] Group 3: Achievements and Future Prospects - The team has made progress in key areas such as massive data transmission, space environment protection, and large-scale flat deployment, laying a solid technical foundation for the stable operation of computing satellites [1]

Core Viewpoint - The company is actively seeking transformation in the computing power industry to find a second growth curve amid the backdrop of US-China technology competition [1] Group 1: Industry Trends - The company notes that the US has already made investments in the space computing power sector, with projects like Starcloud backed by notable investors such as Nvidia and Sequoia, potentially launching the first computing power satellite by 2025 [1] - Domestic competitor Chengdu Guoxing Aerospace submitted its prospectus to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange in January 2025, which the company has analyzed in detail, focusing on the development of the domestic computing power satellite industry and Guoxing's financing valuations [1] Group 2: Company Strategy - The company believes that while the industry is still in its early stages, the continuous advancement of artificial intelligence technology is highlighting issues such as power shortages from computing growth, high costs of ground data center construction, and environmental impacts from large data centers [1] - Space data centers are emerging as the ultimate solution for AI computing power development due to their significant advantages in energy efficiency and environmental impact [1] - The main business of the company involves launching computing power satellites into dawn-dusk orbits to establish space data centers, providing computing power services to clients, with a focus on key technologies such as ultra-light solar wings, efficient radiative cooling plates, and modular in-orbit assembly [1] - The company's core technologies align closely with global trends in space computing power development, indicating a promising future for the industry [1]

Group 1 - The A-share market is expected to benefit from upward liquidity trends, with valuations currently at a relatively reasonable level compared to global equity markets, remaining at a medium to low level [1] - By 2026, earnings are anticipated to become the focal point for the market, with the improvement of listed companies' fundamentals driven by China's economic transformation and the development of emerging industries [1] - The narrowing decline in PPI is expected to support a further recovery in corporate profit margins, while attention should be paid to potential disruptions from the US midterm elections, geopolitical risks, and the pace of domestic economic recovery [1] Group 2 - The pharmaceutical sector has seen a slowdown in its upward momentum after a strong rally earlier in the year, with a significant reduction in the number of "doubling funds" [3] - As of November 28, only two pharmaceutical-themed funds maintained year-to-date doubling returns, indicating a shift in market sentiment from aggressive accumulation to cautious observation [3] - Despite the current transitional phase characterized by clear policy bottoms and visible valuation bottoms, the long-term growth logic of the pharmaceutical industry remains intact, supported by ongoing policy reinforcement and improvements in cash flow [3] Group 3 - Lithium battery production is expected to increase month-on-month in December, with a strong demand leading to price increases across multiple segments [5] - Sample companies reported a battery production of 143.3 GWh, a month-on-month increase of 2.3%, marking the first month-on-month increase in battery production since 2022 [5] - The tightening supply and strong demand in the energy storage sector are anticipated to lead to improved profitability across the lithium battery supply chain [5] Group 4 - The short-term trend of the market is strong, with significant inflows of incremental capital and a strong profit-making effect [7] - The Shanghai Composite Index's rebound is seen as a positive stimulus from insurance capital, although the actual implementation of beneficial policies is still pending [11] - The market is expected to maintain a slow bull trend, with potential for further liquidity easing and a focus on sectors such as new energy equipment, industrial machinery, computing power, and high-end manufacturing [11]