证券研究报告·行业深度报告·食品饮料 食品饮料行业深度报告 保健品行业 2025 三季报总结：如期向好，个 股分化 增持（维持） [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 投资要点 2025 年 11 月 05 日 证券分析师 苏铖 执业证书：S0600524120010 such@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 邓洁 执业证书：S0600525030001 dengj@dwzq.com.cn 行业走势 -10% -7% -4% -1% 2% 5% 8% 11% 14% 17% 2024/11/4 2025/3/5 2025/7/4 2025/11/2 食品饮料 沪深300 相关研究 《大众品 2025 年三季报总结：成长分 化，蓄势向好 》 2025-11-04 《2025Q3 基金食品饮料持仓分析：持 仓低位继续下降，个股配置更趋分散》 2025-10-30 东吴证券研究所 1 / 15 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 ◼ 个股分化，Q3 保健品行业在低基数下如期向好：2025Q3 保健品板块 （SW）收入/归母净利润分别同增 18%/122%。个股逻辑各异，整体经 营向上：①汤臣倍健 ...

Group 1 - The core market for women's health food is projected to reach 12.8 trillion yuan by 2025, driven by a growing female population and increasing disposable income [1][16][18] - The women's health food market is expected to exceed 300 billion yuan, with over 70% of women willing to pay a premium for health food, indicating a high priority on health management [1][19][18] - The primary consumer demographic consists of women aged 26-45, particularly married women with children, with significant growth in second and third-tier cities [1][23][18] Group 2 - The market is diversifying and becoming more refined, with a focus on functional snacks such as dried fruits, candies, and traditional pastries, which account for over 90% of the market [2][38] - The menopause market is rapidly expanding, with projections indicating that by 2030, there will be over 210 million menopausal women in China, leading to increased sales of related products [2][29] - The anti-aging market, although smaller, is growing quickly, with an expected market size of 25.57 billion yuan by 2025, characterized by a dual-track model of overseas scientific innovation and traditional health supplements [2][29] Group 3 - Competition in the market has shifted from single-category focus to multi-dimensional competition involving scenarios, technology, and branding [3][31] - Brands like Fiboo, SorLife, and Swisse have emerged successfully due to precise positioning, while health needs are evolving from general health to specific ingredients [3][31] - Marketing strategies are increasingly emphasizing respect for women's individual experiences and conveying authentic, diverse representations of women [3][31]

近日，南昌市民谢女士爆料，她母亲每天都在喝一款宣称"航天员都在喝"的小红瓶饮品，可她仔细核查发现，这款号称"高科技保健品"瓶身未标注任何专 属专利号，核心有效成分竟与红牛饮料所含的牛磺酸一致，谢女士怀疑母亲是被忽悠了。 消费者曝料母亲疑陷 航天员都在喝？ 谢女士表示，除了成分和宣传不符，更让她警惕的是，母亲提及的该产品的营销机制是：只要介绍朋友购买，自己买的价格就能减半。这让她瞬间想到： 这不就是早都被政府明令禁止的传销模式吗？ "传销式"消费陷阱 今年3月份，谢女士发现母亲开始接触这款"小红瓶"，每天都会固定喝一瓶，不久，母亲又购入了同品牌的"玉竹金银花复合茶萃固体饮料"和"钙片"，起 初她没太在意，直到发现母亲的一个举动，才让她觉得事情不对劲。 谢女士：我发现别人有任何身体不舒服，她都推荐喝这个，我妈跟我说这里面有航空航天专利的成分，意思是某种菌带去太空，经辐射转化回来对身体有 益，但我查了，没有任何专利号，专利也没写上来。 谢女士告诉记者，这款让母亲觉得"精神气很足"的饮品，成分列表显示，含有黄芪、牛磺酸等，而这些成分，其实很常见。 谢女士：它里面唯一会让老人家觉得有效果的东西，一种成分叫牛磺酸，其实就 ...

Core Insights - Osteoporosis is a significant health issue for the elderly, often misunderstood, leading to inadequate calcium supplementation and increased bone burden [1][2] Misconceptions Summary Misconception 1: No Fractures Means No Problem - Osteoporosis is characterized by low bone mass and increased fragility, often referred to as a "silent disease" [2] - The prevalence of osteoporosis in individuals over 50 in China is 19.2%, with rates of 32.1% in women and 6.0% in men; for those over 65, the rates are 32.0% for women and 10.7% for men [2] Misconception 2: More Calcium Equals Stronger Bones - Common belief that consuming bone broth or calcium supplements will prevent osteoporosis is misleading; bone broth has low calcium content and excessive calcium intake can lead to health issues [3][4] - Recommended daily calcium intake for individuals over 50 is 1000 mg, with adjustments for those with osteoporosis or on certain medications [3] Misconception 3: Osteoporosis is Exclusive to the Elderly - Bone mineral content peaks around age 30 and declines thereafter; early life bone health significantly impacts later osteoporosis risk [5] - Emphasis on the importance of calcium intake and physical activity during childhood and adolescence to promote bone health [5][6] Health Initiatives - The "Healthy China Action (2019-2030)" includes initiatives to strengthen the musculoskeletal system and prevent osteoporosis among the elderly [6] - Increased public health awareness and education on osteoporosis prevention is crucial for improving health literacy among older adults [6]

Core Insights - In 2025, the company celebrates its 30th anniversary but faces significant challenges with declining revenue and net profit after a difficult 2024 [2] - The brand struggles to resonate with younger consumers, who prefer newer brands like Swisse, indicating a shift in market dynamics [3][4] - The company's marketing efforts have not translated into sales growth, with a notable increase in sales expenses without corresponding revenue increases [4][5] Financial Performance - In 2023, sales expenses reached 3.859 billion, a 21.77% increase year-on-year, while revenue growth was only 19.66%, indicating diminishing returns on marketing investments [4] - In the first half of 2025, sales expenses were 1.233 billion, down 32.33% from 1.822 billion, but revenue still declined by 23.43%, showing ongoing challenges in sales momentum [5] - The company reported a 62.62% drop in net profit in 2024, marking the most severe decline in years, with continued revenue decreases into 2025 [5][10] Marketing and Sales Strategy - The company has significantly cut marketing expenses, with advertising costs dropping over 50% in the first half of 2025, yet this has not led to improved sales performance [7][11] - Despite reducing costs, the sales expense ratio reached a historical high of 44.33% in 2024, indicating that marketing efficiency is declining [11] - The company has also reduced R&D expenses by 56.45% in the first half of 2025, which may impact long-term innovation and competitiveness [13] Market Position and Consumer Perception - The brand is losing its appeal among younger consumers, who view it as outdated compared to competitors [3][15] - The company has seen a significant decline in its dealer network, with the number of dealers dropping from 1,070 in 2021 to 640 in 2025 [17] - Revenue from key products like "健力多" has decreased significantly, with a drop from over 1 billion in 2022 to 411 million in the first half of 2025 [17] Challenges and Future Outlook - The company faces a dual challenge of declining sales and increasing competition from new brands and online platforms [14][18] - The traditional sales channels are under pressure, with both online and offline revenues declining significantly [16][18] - The future success of the company hinges on its ability to adapt to market changes, engage younger consumers, and innovate its product offerings [18]

Core Viewpoint - Calcium is essential for bone health, but many people's diets fail to meet the necessary intake due to high salt and selective eating habits. It is crucial for long-term low-calcium dieters, menopausal women, the elderly, and those with limited physical activity to adjust their diets and scientifically supplement calcium [1] Group 1: Common Misconceptions - Misconception 1: More calcium is better. Excessive calcium intake can lead to health risks, and recommended daily intake varies by age and physiological status, such as 800mg for children aged 4-10 and adults over 18, and 1000mg for teenagers aged 11-17 and seniors over 50 [2][3] - Misconception 2: The type of supplement determines absorption. The source of calcium is more critical than the form of the supplement. For example, calcium carbonate requires sufficient stomach acid for absorption, while calcium citrate is more easily absorbed [4][5] - Misconception 3: Only calcium supplementation is necessary. Calcium absorption is enhanced by other nutrients like Vitamin D, Vitamin K, and collagen, which should be taken together for optimal effectiveness [6][7][8] Group 2: Product Comparisons - Calcium Tablets: - Calcium Carbonate D3 Tablets contain 600mg of calcium carbonate and 125 IU of Vitamin D3, but may cause discomfort for those with low stomach acid [11] - Swisse Calcium Citrate Tablets contain 333mg of calcium citrate, 665 IU of Vitamin D, and 60μg of Vitamin K, with a high absorption rate and minimal gastrointestinal discomfort [14] - Calcium Capsules: - Tongrentang DK Capsules contain 500mg of calcium carbonate, 360 IU of Vitamin D, and 24μg of Vitamin K, but may cause constipation due to the calcium source [17] - Schiff Vitamin D and K Softgels contain 500mg of a dual calcium source and are easy to swallow, but may require additional supplementation of nutrients [20] - Liquid Calcium: - Mom's Garden Liquid Calcium contains 500mg of patented organic calcium and 400 IU of Vitamin D, with a high absorption rate and added collagen for joint support [23] - Golden Calcium Liquid contains 300mg of calcium citrate and additional nutrients to enhance absorption, but may require further supplementation [26] Group 3: Key Principles for Effective Calcium Supplementation - Choose the right type of calcium based on individual digestive sensitivity, preferring calcium citrate or natural biological calcium [27] - Ensure synergistic intake with Vitamin D and Vitamin K2 for better absorption and utilization [28] - Monitor dosage to avoid excessive intake, with a recommendation of ≤500mg per single dose and total daily intake [28] - Select supplements that are easy to take and fit personal preferences to ensure adherence [28] - Individualize choices based on specific health needs and consult medical professionals if diagnosed with osteoporosis [29]

Core Viewpoint - The health supplement market in China is experiencing significant challenges, as evidenced by the poor performance of leading companies like汤臣倍健, which has seen substantial declines in revenue and profit. However, the overall market is still growing, driven by younger consumers seeking health products, indicating a shift in consumer behavior and preferences [3][4][32]. Group 1: Company Performance -汤臣倍健 reported a revenue of 35.32 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year decline of 23.43%, with a net profit of 7.37 billion yuan, down 17.34% [3]. - For the entire year of 2024,汤臣倍健's revenue was 68.38 billion yuan, a decrease of 27.3%, and net profit fell by 62.62%, marking the largest decline since its listing [3][9]. - The company's market capitalization has dropped from a peak of 600 billion yuan to approximately 209 billion yuan, resulting in a loss of nearly 400 billion yuan in value [3][9]. Group 2: Market Trends - The health supplement industry is not in decline; rather, it is evolving, with younger consumers engaging in "punk health" practices, leading to increased spending on health products [5][14]. - Data from 2023 indicates a 255% increase in consumption of uric acid monitoring products among consumers born in the 1990s, with 30% of their spending on immune-boosting supplements [15]. - Brands targeting younger demographics, such as诺特兰德 and Swisse, are thriving by employing innovative marketing strategies and product offerings [16][19]. Group 3: Challenges and Strategies -汤臣倍健's traditional marketing and distribution strategies have become outdated, leading to a significant drop in sales across its product lines [10][11]. - The company has reduced its advertising and marketing expenses, which has further contributed to declining revenues and profits [11]. - Despite launching new products,汤臣倍健 has struggled to capture the younger market, missing out on the e-commerce boom and innovative marketing tactics that competitors have successfully utilized [12][17]. Group 4: Historical Context - The Chinese health supplement market has evolved over nearly 40 years, with discussions around "intelligence tax" continuing as long as consumers fear aging, death, and loss of beauty [21][32]. - The market saw significant growth in the 1990s, but regulatory changes led to a downturn, from which汤臣倍健 and other second-generation companies emerged to dominate the market [31][32]. - Recent data shows that the health supplement market generated sales of 604.1 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, reflecting a growth of 16.2%, with specific categories like sleep management products growing by 53.1% [32].

Core Insights - The retail pharmacy industry in China is experiencing a significant downturn, with an estimated 39,000 pharmacies expected to close in 2024, averaging 107 closures per day, and projections suggesting that closures could exceed 100,000 by 2025 [1][2] - Major players in the industry, such as Guoda Pharmacy and Jianzhijia, have reported substantial losses, with Guoda closing over 1,270 stores and incurring a net loss of over 1.1 billion yuan in 2024 [2] - The rapid expansion of pharmacies from 524,000 in 2019 to 667,000 in 2023 has led to market saturation, with the average number of customers served per store dropping from 4,112 in 2016 to 2,113 in 2023 [2][3] Industry Challenges - The high density of pharmacies has resulted in aggressive price competition, with many stores resorting to loss-leader pricing strategies to attract customers, ultimately harming their profitability [3] - Changing consumer habits, particularly among younger generations who prefer online channels for purchasing medications, have further exacerbated the decline in foot traffic to physical stores [3] - Tightening healthcare policies, including stricter regulations on insurance reimbursements and the shift of chronic disease medication distribution from pharmacies to community hospitals, have significantly impacted pharmacy revenues [3][4] Regulatory Environment - Starting in 2025, all participating pharmacies must implement drug traceability codes, complicating the procurement and settlement processes, which could increase operational costs for smaller pharmacies [4][5] - The requirement for licensed pharmacists to be present in all pharmacies by December 31, 2025, adds further compliance pressure, particularly for smaller operations [5] - The transition from a rapid expansion phase to a necessary industry adjustment reflects the need for pharmacies to focus on their role in public health rather than profit maximization [5]

Core Viewpoint - The elderly food and nutrition market in China is poised to become a trillion-dollar industry, driven by the increasing aging population and their diverse needs for health and nutrition [1][4][6]. Group 1: Market Overview - The elderly population in China is projected to exceed 310 million by 2024, accounting for 22% of the total population, with those aged 65 and above reaching 220.23 million, or 15.6% [6]. - The silver economy is not limited to traditional elder care but encompasses a vast industry that includes various sectors such as nutrition, health management, and community services [4][6]. - The market for elderly food and nutrition is expected to reach 9 trillion yuan by 2025, with the food and health-related sectors accounting for approximately 23.5% of this market [13]. Group 2: Consumer Needs and Pain Points - Elderly consumers have diverse needs that go beyond basic nutrition, including specific dietary requirements for chronic diseases and preferences for taste and texture [11][12]. - Common health issues among the elderly include digestive problems, nutrient deficiencies, and a high prevalence of chronic diseases such as hypertension and diabetes [10][11]. - The market faces significant challenges, including product homogenization, lack of standardized regulations, and misleading marketing practices targeting elderly consumers [17][19]. Group 3: Product and Service Trends - There is a growing demand for high-quality, specialized products that cater to the unique nutritional needs of the elderly, including functional foods and easy-to-chew options [15][19]. - The trend towards online shopping is increasing among elderly consumers, who are becoming more familiar with digital purchasing platforms [16]. - Innovations in product formulation and packaging are emerging, focusing on enhancing the user experience for elderly consumers, such as easy-to-open packages and clear labeling [34][36]. Group 4: Regulatory and Competitive Landscape - The regulatory framework for elderly food products in China is still developing, with recent standards being introduced to improve product safety and quality [36]. - Comparatively, countries like Japan have established a more mature elderly food industry with detailed classifications and standards, serving as a model for China's market development [24][26]. - The competition in the elderly food market is expected to intensify as companies strive to meet the evolving demands of this demographic, emphasizing the need for differentiated products and services [37].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the importance of calcium supplementation for preventing osteoporosis and highlights the differences in calcium supplements available in the market, emphasizing the need for informed choices when purchasing them. Group 1: Importance of Calcium - Calcium is a crucial nutrient for human health, involved in bone formation, muscle function, and various cellular processes [1] - The recommended daily calcium intake is 800 mg for adults and pregnant women, and 1000 mg for adolescents aged 9-18 [1] - The median calcium intake in China is only 328.3 mg per day, with a deficiency rate of 94.3%, indicating a significant need for calcium supplementation [1] Group 2: Misconceptions About Calcium Supplements - The effectiveness of calcium supplements does not significantly differ between low-cost and high-cost options, as they contain similar core ingredients [2] - There are three main types of calcium: inorganic calcium (e.g., calcium carbonate), organic calcium (e.g., calcium citrate), and amino acid chelated calcium, each with different absorption characteristics [2] - High calcium content in supplements does not guarantee better absorption; excessive intake can lead to adverse health effects [4] Group 3: Dietary Recommendations - A balanced diet rich in dairy products is the best source of calcium, with a recommended daily intake of 300-500 grams of dairy for adults [7] - For individuals with normal digestive function, calcium carbonate is recommended due to its high calcium content and good absorption rate [8] - It is advised to limit calcium intake to no more than 500 mg at a time for optimal absorption, and to consult healthcare professionals for higher needs [9] Group 4: Role of Vitamin D - Vitamin D is essential for calcium absorption, and taking both together can help reduce the risk of osteoporosis [10]