机构观点 2月3日，上期所石油沥青厂库期货仓单26490吨，环比上个交易日持平；石油沥青仓库期货仓单13580吨，环比上个交易日持平。 新湖期货：春节临近，市场供需呈南北分化。南方区域部分项目施工进入尾声阶段，终端少量释放，市场零星成交；北方市场上下游参与意愿均 不足，买卖氛围清淡，贸易商及下游企业逐步进入年度收尾阶段，整体交投活跃度持续走低。短期盘面重点关注原油价格变动。 上周沥青开工率环比回落1.3个百分点至25.5%，较去年同期低了2.6个百分点，处于近年同期偏低水平。 国信期货：据卓创资讯（301299），供应方面，中国沥青日度开工负荷率为28.95%，延续偏低位区间运行，支撑较为稳固。需求方面，冬季沥青 刚性需求整体呈现偏弱特征。中东等地缘局势的不确定性从成本端对沥青价格产生影响。操作上短期建议以震荡思路为主。 2月4日，沥青期货盘面表现偏强，截至发稿主力合约报3370.00元/吨，震荡上行1.97%。 截止到2026年1月26日，国内沥青104家社会库库存共计120.5万吨，较1月22日增加2.6%，同比增加21.0%。 【消息面汇总】 ...

Group 1 - The main contract for pulp futures showed weak fluctuations, with a minimum drop to 5498.00 yuan and a current price of 5510.00 yuan, reflecting a decline of 1.75% [1] - The pulp futures market is currently experiencing a range-bound fluctuation, with domestic pulp manufacturers maintaining normal production levels and port inventory continuing to decrease [2] - The demand side shows mixed trends in downstream procurement, with white card paper increasing by 1.3% and double glue paper decreasing by 0.2% [2] Group 2 - As of December 25, 2025, the inventory at major Chinese pulp ports was 1.906 million tons, a decrease of 87,000 tons from the previous period, marking a 4.4% decline [2] - The SP2605 contract is expected to face short-term support at 5450 and resistance around 5750, with a focus on risk control [2] - The import volume of bleached softwood pulp in November 2025 was 725,000 tons, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 4.9% and a year-on-year increase of 10.1% [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For cotton, on Thursday, ICE U.S. cotton fell 0.19% to 64 cents per pound, CF601 rose 0.65% to 13,860 yuan per ton, and the main - contract position decreased by 30,671 lots to 443,600 lots. The spot price index of cotton 3128B was 14,630 yuan per ton, up 40 yuan per ton from the previous day. The Fed cut interest rates by 25BP in December, but there were differences among voting members on the subsequent rate - cut path. The USDA December report slightly increased the expected output of U.S. cotton in the 2025/26 season. The domestic market had no obvious fundamental changes, and the focus of the market kept switching. High out - of - Xinjiang freight affected cotton transportation. The cotton consumption in November remained relatively high, but the consumption in the second half of November was lower than that in the first half. Currently, there are both long and short factors for Zhengzhou cotton, and it is in a short - term shock pattern with the upside space potentially larger than the downside space [1]. - For sugar, the spot price quotes were flat. The production progress in India and Thailand was within the expected increase range in the short term. Whether the raw - sugar price can give India export profits needs to be observed in the medium term. The domestic spot price has stabilized recently, the near - month contract on the futures market has stopped falling, and the May contract is hovering at a low level. It is in a short - term shock pattern, and the medium - term outlook is still not optimistic [1]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Data Monitoring - **Cotton**: The 1 - 5 contract spread was 10 yuan, down 10 yuan; the main - contract basis was 1153 yuan, down 71 yuan. The spot price in Xinjiang was 14,835 yuan per ton, up 5 yuan, and the national spot price was 15,013 yuan per ton, up 9 yuan [2]. - **Sugar**: The 1 - 5 contract spread was 124 yuan, up 24 yuan; the main - contract basis was 215 yuan, up 83 yuan. The spot price in Nanning was 5370 yuan per ton, unchanged, and in Liuzhou was 5460 yuan per ton, unchanged [2]. 2. Market Information - **Cotton**: On December 11, the number of cotton futures warehouse receipts was 2967, 3 less than the previous trading day, and the effective forecast was 3585. The cotton arrival prices in different regions were: 14,835 yuan per ton in Xinjiang, 15,096 yuan per ton in Henan, 15,017 yuan per ton in Shandong, and 15,198 yuan per ton in Zhejiang. The yarn comprehensive load was 51, unchanged from the previous day; the yarn comprehensive inventory was 27.8, up 0.1; the short - fiber cloth comprehensive load was 51.6, down 0.1; and the short - fiber cloth comprehensive inventory was 31.5, up 0.1 [3]. - **Sugar**: On December 11, the sugar spot price in Nanning was 5370 yuan per ton, unchanged from the previous day, and in Liuzhou was 5460 yuan per ton, unchanged. The number of sugar futures warehouse receipts was 611, an increase of 215 from the previous trading day, and the effective forecast was 1490 [4][5]. 3. Chart Analysis - The report provides multiple charts for cotton and sugar, including the closing price of the main contract, the basis of the main contract, the 1 - 5 spread, the warehouse receipts and effective forecasts, etc., with data sources from Wind and the Everbright Futures Research Institute [7][15][17]

Market Overview - On October 15, propylene spot prices in East China were quoted at 6200 RMB/ton, while prices in Shandong were at 6250 RMB/ton [1] - The top 20 futures companies for propylene had a total long position of 19,200 contracts and a short position of 18,900 contracts, resulting in a long-to-short ratio of 1.01. The net position decreased by 82 contracts compared to the previous day, totaling 259 contracts [1] Industry Insights - Propylene downstream factory capacity utilization rates showed mixed trends, with the largest increase seen in phenol-ketone products due to the resumption of full operations at Longjiang Chemical's facility and the gradual ramp-up of Sinopec Mitsui's phenol-ketone plant [1] - According to Nanhua Futures, the overall propylene market remains loose, with the spot market experiencing some low-price purchasing interest after significant declines, although high prices continue to face resistance. The night trading session saw further declines, with costs continuing to impact the market [2] - Ruida Futures noted that the supply and demand for propylene are relatively balanced, with maintenance returns leading to weaker spot prices and futures maintaining a fluctuating trend. Short-term attention is on the support level of 6000 and resistance at 6150 [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the given content. Core Viewpoints - The cost support for staple fiber and bottle chips is weak, and the market situation requires further observation through oscillation analysis [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking Staple Fiber - The prices of staple fiber contracts (2510, 2511, 2512) decreased by 40, 38, and 36 respectively compared to the previous day. - The spreads of PF10 - 11 and PF11 - 12 decreased by 2 each. - The PF basis increased by 8. - The staple fiber's main contract open interest decreased by 19037, and the trading volume decreased by 1019. - The spot price in East China decreased by 30, and the production - sales ratio decreased by 3% to 51% [1]. Bottle Chips - The prices of bottle chip contracts (2510, 2511, 2512) decreased by 22, 38, and 34 respectively compared to the previous day. - The spreads of PR10 - 11 increased by 16, and PR11 - 12 decreased by 4. - The PR main contract basis decreased by 12. - The bottle chip's main contract open interest decreased by 569, while the trading volume increased by 10560. - The spot prices in East China and South China decreased by 50 and 30 respectively [1]. Spot News Staple Fiber - The staple fiber futures showed a weak oscillation. Factory quotes for the spot market remained stable, and transactions were negotiated on a case - by - case basis. The prices of futures - spot and traders decreased. As of 3:00 p.m., the average production - sales ratio was 51%, and the production - sales ratios of some factories varied [1]. Bottle Chips - The prices of upstream raw material futures declined, and polyester bottle chip factories mostly lowered their quotes by 20 - 50 yuan. The low - end transactions in the polyester bottle chip market were acceptable on the day, and some large factories had significant transaction volumes. Orders from September to November were mostly transacted at ex - factory prices ranging from 5780 - 5900 yuan/ton, with slightly lower prices at 5750 - 5770 yuan/ton and slightly higher prices around 5910 yuan/ton, varying by brand [2]. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of staple fiber and bottle chips on the day's daytime session of the main contract futures price fluctuations was 0, indicating a neutral trend [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - The overall view for both coking coal (JM2509) and coke (J2509) is to adopt an oscillating approach. Coking coal futures are expected to oscillate due to optimistic market sentiment, while coke futures are likely to have an interval oscillation due to a mix of bullish and bearish factors [1]. 3. Summary by Variety Coking Coal (JM) - **Price and Supply - Demand Data**: The latest quoted price of Mongolian coking coal at the Ganqimaodu Port is 940.0 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 1.08%. As of the week ending July 4, the daily average output of clean coal from 523 coking coal mines nationwide was 73.9 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.1 million tons but 2.7 million tons lower than the same period last year. The combined daily average output of coke from independent coking plants and steel - mill coking plants was 111.81 million tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.13 million tons [5]. - **Market Outlook**: The fundamental situation of coking coal has not improved significantly, and the supply in the production area has increased in the short term. The upward movement of futures is mainly driven by news. With the upcoming Politburo meeting in July, the market's long - short game is intensifying. It is expected that the main coking coal contract will maintain an oscillating trend [5]. Coke (J) - **Price Data**: The latest quoted price index of quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke at Rizhao Port is 1220 yuan/ton, remaining flat week - on - week. The ex - warehouse price of quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke at Qingdao Port is 1210 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 3.42% [6]. - **Market Outlook**: The market logic has shifted from fundamental game to expected game. The policy mentioned in the Sixth Meeting of the Central Financial and Economic Commission may have an impact on coking coal and coke. However, since the coking industry has completed capacity upgrading in recent years, the direct impact on coke may be relatively limited. With a combination of strong expectations and weak realities, coke futures are adjusting in a low - level oscillation. It is recommended to adopt an oscillating approach and pay attention to the recovery of coking coal production and policy dynamics [6].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Report's Core View - Both coking coal and coke are expected to maintain a volatile trend in the short - and medium - term, with an intraday bias towards a slightly stronger trend [1][5][6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs For Coking Coal (JM) - **Price and Performance**: On the night of July 7, the main coking coal contract oscillated, recording a 0.24% decline and closing at 834.5 yuan/ton [5]. - **Supply and Demand**: As of the week ending July 4, the daily average output of clean coal from 523 coking coal mines nationwide was 73.9 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.1 million tons and 2.7 million tons lower than the same period last year. The combined daily average output of coke from independent coking plants and steel - mill coking plants was 111.81 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.13 million tons [5]. - **Market Outlook**: The fundamental situation of coking coal has not improved significantly, and the supply in the production area has increased in the short term. The upward movement of futures is mainly driven by news. With the upcoming Politburo meeting in July, the market's long - short game will intensify, and the main coking coal contract is expected to maintain a volatile trend [5]. For Coke (J) - **Price and Performance**: On the night of July 7, the main coke contract oscillated at a low level, recording a 0.35% decline and closing at 1417.5 yuan/ton [6]. - **Policy Impact**: On July 1, the Sixth Meeting of the Central Financial and Economic Commission proposed to rectify "involution - style competition" and guide the orderly withdrawal of backward production capacity. Coking coal has a surplus supply, and coke has a surplus production capacity, both may be affected by this policy, but the direct impact on coke may be relatively limited [6]. - **Market Outlook**: The fundamental situation of coke has no obvious positive factors, but market expectations are relatively optimistic due to the positive impact of anti - involution policies. In the short term, coke futures are expected to maintain a slightly stronger volatile trend [6].