在进入到2026年之后，很多储户都在为存单即将到期而发愁。数据显示，今年有超32万亿定期存款集中到 期，比2025年多了4万亿。这些人大多都是在2023年高利率时存的定期。但随着银行存款利率持续下降，对 于这些储户来说，如果选择续存，利息少了一大截，但不续存又不知道钱该往哪里放。 除了存款利率越来越低之外，储户还要面对利息收入跑不赢通胀的尴尬。一边是像洗漱用品、食用油、生活 用纸等与老百姓生活休戚相关的商品价格不断上涨。而另一边却是银行存款利率创下历史新低。显然，银行 存款利率根本跑不赢每年物价上涨。而未来银行存款利率还有进一步下行的空间。对此，有业内人士表示： 2026年有银行定期的家庭注意了，只要做好这两手准备，利息不缩水。 第一手准备：要实现存款收入的最大化 而面对银行存款利率持续走低，越来越多的储户都不会选择把所有资金都存银行定期或大额存单，因为，这 么做并非是最佳决定。而是会选择进行多元化的资产配置，就是拿出一部分资金投资其他高收益的投资品。 这样既可以实现资产的保值增值，又可以将投资风险降到紧低。 现在很多人都在抱怨存款利息收入过低了。但实际上，你也可以实现存款利息收入的最大化，通常可以采取 以下 ...

资料来源：聚源，华源证券研究所，截至2026年01月27日 华源晨会精粹 20260127 金融工程 资金流向混债二级基金，周期和大金融占比提升——主动型公募基金 2025 年四季报分析：2025 年四季度公募基金总规模变动不大，但不同类别的基金 规模发生明显切换：投资者因追求稳健收益，资金从高波动的主动权益基金（较上 季度规模缩减 1823 亿元）和低风险的纯债基金（较上季度规模缩减 868 亿元）流出， 向中低风险的含权债基（较上季度规模增加 2398 亿元）迁移，与此同时，含权债基 的新发热度升高，发行数量创下 2020 年以来单季度新高。主动权益基金：对港股的 配置热情明显下降，显著增配周期板块。行业维度上，电子、通信、电新为重仓前 三，有色金属、基础化工和非银主动加仓最多。股债混合型基金：同样呈现出减仓 港股、加仓创业板的特征，2025 年四季度重仓股中占比最高的三个行业分别为电子、 有色和通信，主动加仓最多的行业为电子、通信和非银。含权债基：是承接资金向 中低风险迁移的重要方向，权益配置上向周期和大金融倾斜，对医药板块的减仓幅 度较大；债券方面，持续降低可转债仓位，转向利率债和信用债。纯债基金：是 ...

证券研究报告 | 金工专题报告 | | --- | hyzqdatemark 2026 年 01 月 27 日 资金流向混债二级基金，周期和大金融占比提升 ——主动型公募基金 2025 年四季报分析 投资要点： 主动权益基金规模萎缩，含权债基发行热情高涨 2025 年四季度，公募基金总规模变动不大，但不同类别的基金规模发生明显切换： 投资者因追求稳健收益，资金从高波动的主动权益基金（较上季度规模缩减 1823 亿 元）和低风险的纯债基金（较上季度规模缩减 868 亿元）流出，向中低风险的含权 债基（较上季度规模增加 2398 亿元）迁移，与此同时，含权债基的新发热度升高， 发行数量创下 2020 年以来单季度新高。 证券分析师 主动权益基金 2025 年四季度主动权益基金对港股的配置热情明显下降，从 2025 年二季度的 20.44%持续降低到四季度的 16.47%；对于创业板的配置意愿增强，由 2025 年一季 度的 13.46%抬升至 20.85%。 相比 2025 年三季度，主动权益基金显著增配周期板块，周期板块占比升至 28.31%， 环比增加 4.95pct；大金融板块占比由三季度的 4.57%提升 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the increasing trend of domestic residents' savings, with household deposits expected to reach approximately 164 trillion yuan by the end of 2025, resulting in an average per capita deposit of over 114,000 yuan [1] - The primary reasons for the growing savings enthusiasm among the population include the need to prepare for unexpected events such as pandemics, illnesses, unemployment, and future expenses related to children's education, retirement, and large purchases [1] - There is a significant decline in bank deposit interest rates, with the three-year fixed deposit rate dropping from 3.25% to 1.75%, leading to a reduction in annual interest income for depositors [3] Group 2 - The decrease in deposit interest rates is attributed to three main factors: an excess of deposits in financial institutions, the need to stimulate loan demand by lowering rates, and banks' profit models relying on interest rate spreads [3] - As the number of bank failures and dissolutions increases, particularly among small and medium-sized banks, depositors are advised to be cautious as their savings may not be entirely safe [6] - The implementation of the Deposit Insurance Regulation ensures that deposits up to 500,000 yuan, including interest, are fully compensated within seven working days in the event of a bank failure [6] Group 3 - For depositors with savings of 500,000 yuan, it is recommended to diversify their deposits across multiple banks to ensure that each bank's total deposits remain below the insured limit [8] - Conservative investors are advised to consider options such as depositing in joint-stock banks, purchasing large-denomination certificates of deposit, and locking in medium to long-term interest rates [5] - Aggressive investors may benefit from a diversified asset allocation strategy, including a mix of risk-free investments, low-risk products, and moderate-risk options like mixed funds and dividend-paying bank stocks [5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that starting from 2026, families with deposits exceeding 500,000 may face four major challenges related to low interest income, inflation, investment risks, and the increasing number of small bank failures [3][4][9] Group 2 - The first challenge is the decreasing interest income from deposits, with the interest rate for one-year large deposits dropping from 2.25% to 1.4%, resulting in a reduction of interest income by 4,250 yuan for a 500,000 yuan deposit [3][6] - The second challenge is that deposit interest income cannot keep up with inflation, as the purchasing power of the principal decreases each year due to rising prices of essential goods [4][6] - The third challenge is the confusion regarding investment options, as many depositors are uncertain about how to invest their money amidst low interest rates and high investment risks [7][8] - The fourth challenge is the increasing number of small bank failures, which poses a risk to depositors who previously favored these banks for higher interest rates [9][12] Group 3 - For risk-averse investors, it is suggested to purchase large deposits from joint-stock banks, which offer higher yields than state-owned banks while maintaining lower risks compared to small banks [12] - For investors willing to accept some risk, a diversified asset allocation strategy is recommended, dividing funds into fixed-income products, low-risk investments, and medium-risk options like mixed funds [12]

Core Viewpoint - The increasing enthusiasm of depositors to save money is driven by concerns over unemployment and health emergencies, as well as the perceived risks associated with higher-yield investment products like stocks and funds [1]. Group 1: Deposit Trends - In the first eleven months of 2025, residents' deposits increased by 120.6 billion yuan [1]. - The decline in deposit interest rates has been noted since 2023, with the three-year fixed deposit rate dropping from 3.25% to 1.75%, resulting in a decrease of 1,500 yuan in annual interest income for a 100,000 yuan deposit [6]. Group 2: Recommendations for Depositors - Depositors should consider moving funds to joint-stock banks, which typically offer higher interest rates than state-owned banks, while still being safer than village and commercial banks [6]. - For deposits exceeding 200,000 yuan, purchasing large-denomination certificates of deposit (CDs) is advisable, as they offer higher rates and transferability [6]. - A diversified asset allocation strategy is recommended to counteract the inability of deposit rates to outpace inflation, with examples provided for conservative investors [9]. Group 3: Liquidity and Safety - Maintaining liquidity is crucial; depositors are advised to avoid locking all funds in long-term deposits to prevent losses from early withdrawals due to emergencies [12]. - A suggested strategy includes keeping a portion of funds in short-term large-denomination CDs while locking the remainder in longer-term deposits [12]. Group 4: Bank Stability Concerns - The number of small bank failures is expected to rise, with recent examples including Baoshang Bank and Liao Yang Rural Commercial Bank [17]. - Depositors should ensure their banks display deposit insurance symbols, diversify their deposits across multiple banks, and understand the difference between deposits and investment products to ensure coverage in case of bank failures [17].

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The records primarily discuss the fixed income market, particularly focusing on the bond market dynamics and the implications for various financial institutions, including banks and insurance companies [1][2][5]. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Supply and Demand Pressure**: The supply-demand structure for bonds is under pressure, with local government bond issuance at historical highs and major banks nearing their issuance limits. This situation raises concerns about potential supply-demand gaps [1][2][5]. 2. **Long-term Bond Selling**: Funds have been continuously selling long-term bonds, with a net sell-off of approximately 60 billion, bringing the duration of medium to long-term interest rate bonds back to levels seen in early April [1][3][4]. 3. **Projected Financing Needs**: For the upcoming year, the net financing volume is expected to increase to between 6.76 trillion and 6.8 trillion, indicating a significant rise in overall financing needs [1][5]. 4. **Insurance Sector Adjustments**: The insurance sector is expected to see a decrease in demand for ultra-long-term bonds by about 200 billion due to a shift towards higher dividend insurance products in a low-interest-rate environment [1][6][7]. 5. **Banking Sector Trends**: If banks maintain their current bond purchase ratios, their share in the market may decrease by approximately 100 billion [1][7]. Additional Important Insights 1. **Market Volatility**: The bond market is anticipated to experience volatility, particularly in the long-term segment, as the demand from funds and insurance companies is expected to weaken [1][3][6]. 2. **Credit Bond Market Performance**: The credit bond market has shown a lackluster performance, with credit spreads widening as funds continue to favor short-term credit bonds [3][12][13]. 3. **Investment Strategies**: Recommendations for investment strategies include waiting for favorable conditions before making significant investments in long-term bonds and focusing on short to medium-term bonds for better liquidity and stability [11][16]. 4. **Impact of Regulatory Changes**: Regulatory adjustments, such as changes in fund sales fees and customized fund regulations, are expected to influence demand for bonds with maturities of 4-5 years, potentially increasing volatility [15][16]. 5. **Market Sentiment and Future Outlook**: The sentiment in the market is cautious, with expectations that the supply-demand gap could reach approximately 700 billion, necessitating measures such as relaxing central bank liquidity indicators to alleviate pressure [8][10]. This summary encapsulates the critical points discussed in the conference call records, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and future outlook of the fixed income market and its participants.

Core Insights - The article discusses the status of having 5 million yuan in savings in China and its implications for wealth and living standards globally [1][3][4] Group 1: Wealth Distribution in China - In China, there are approximately 5.128 million households with assets exceeding 6 million yuan, which represents about 1% of the total 494 million households [1][3] - Households with 5 million yuan in savings are extremely rare, with the proportion being significantly less than 1% of all households [3] Group 2: Global Perspective on Wealth - 5 million yuan is roughly equivalent to 700,000 USD, placing it at a middle-upper class level in developed countries and a very wealthy status in developing countries [3][4] Group 3: Interest Income Feasibility - The ability to live off interest from 5 million yuan depends on current deposit interest rates; a rate below 1% would make it difficult to rely solely on interest income [4][5] - Currently, a three-year fixed deposit offers an interest rate of 1.55%, yielding approximately 77,500 yuan annually or 6,458 yuan monthly, which can sustain basic living expenses in first-tier cities [5][7] Group 4: Personal Spending Considerations - Personal consumption levels significantly affect the feasibility of living off interest; higher living costs in first-tier cities may render interest income insufficient [7] - Households with 5 million yuan typically consist of high-ranking officials, medium to large business owners, major shareholders of listed companies, freelancers, and residents benefiting from urban redevelopment [7] Group 5: Investment Strategies - It is recommended to diversify asset allocation for better financial sustainability; suggested allocation includes 2.5 million yuan in fixed-income products, 1.5 million yuan in low-risk investments, and 1 million yuan in medium-risk products [7]

Group 1 - The number of lottery participants in China has exceeded 300 million, with total lottery sales reaching 317.85 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3% [1] - The probability of winning the top prize in the Double Chromosphere lottery is 1 in 17.72 million, while the probability for the Big Lotto is 1 in 21.42 million [1] Group 2 - If a winner receives an 8 million yuan prize, the lottery center deducts 20% as personal income tax, leaving the winner with 6.4 million yuan [3] - Upon the transfer of the prize money to the winner's bank account, the bank's risk control system will flag the transaction, prompting immediate monitoring [3] - Winners need to provide two documents: a winning certificate from the lottery center and proof of tax payment to pass the bank's review [3] Group 3 - Bank employees are prohibited from leaking customer information, and violations can lead to severe consequences, including termination or imprisonment [5] - Banks do not actively push financial products to winners unless the winners express interest in investment options [5] - Upon request for investment advice, banks will offer personalized wealth management services tailored to the winner's risk tolerance [5] Group 4 - Diversified asset allocation involves dividing the investment into three parts: safe investments like large deposits and government bonds, low-risk products like bond funds, and medium-risk investments like mixed funds and dividend-paying stocks [7] - This strategy aims to maximize investment returns while minimizing risks [7]

Core Insights - The enthusiasm for saving among Chinese residents is increasing, with a record surge of 10.77 trillion yuan in bank deposits in the first half of 2025, indicating a shift in saving behavior among younger generations [1] - There are notable changes in bank deposits, particularly for families with savings exceeding 500,000 yuan, which require attention starting from September [3] Changes in Bank Deposits - **Declining Deposit Rates**: Starting in 2024, deposit rates in China have entered a downward trend, with the 3-year deposit rate dropping from 3.05% to 1.55%. This results in a significant decrease in annual interest income from 15,250 yuan to 7,750 yuan for a 500,000 yuan deposit, a difference of 7,500 yuan [4][6] - **Inverted Deposit Rates**: Some banks are experiencing an inverted deposit rate situation, where the 3-year deposit rate (1.55%) is higher than the 5-year rate (1.3%). This is due to increased demand for 3-year fixed deposits, prompting banks to raise rates for that term [6] - **Increasing Bank Failures**: The number of bank failures is rising, with 105 banks approved for dissolution in 2024. Depositors with amounts exceeding 500,000 yuan may face potential losses, as only the first 500,000 yuan is fully insured under the deposit insurance regulations [6][9] Recommendations for Depositors - **Investing in Large Time Deposits**: Depositors are advised to consider purchasing 3-year large time deposits to lock in higher interest rates, as these typically offer better rates than regular fixed deposits and have transferability features [9] - **Checking Deposit Insurance**: It is crucial for depositors to ensure that their bank participates in deposit insurance, as this guarantees full compensation for deposits and interest up to 500,000 yuan [11] - **Diversifying Deposits**: To mitigate risks, depositors should avoid placing all their funds in one bank. Spreading deposits across 2-3 banks, with each bank holding no more than 500,000 yuan, can help ensure full compensation in case of bank failures [11] Investment Strategies for High Depositors - **Risk-Averse Investors**: For those with deposits over 500,000 yuan who are risk-averse, investing in large time deposits or government bonds is recommended [13] - **Aggressive Investors**: More aggressive investors can diversify their portfolios by allocating 40% to risk-free assets, 30% to low-risk investments like bank wealth management products, and 30% to mixed funds and dividend-paying bank stocks, balancing risk and potential returns [13]