2026年已经到来。回顾2025年，国内居民存款热情越来越高涨。数据显示：1-11月居民存款增加12.06万元。过去中老年人群体是存钱的主力军。而如今， 有越来越多的年轻人也加入到存钱队伍中来。老百姓爱存钱的原因，就是为了应对未来可能发生的失业、疾病等突发事件，以及子女教育、购买大件商品、 养老等未来将会发生的费用支出。 面对银行各档存款利率都已经进入到"1时代"，很多储户都想把钱拿出来投资股票、基金、银行理财产品，甚至还有人把存款拿去创业。但是，所面对的投 资风险却是非常大的，大多数人理财和创业的结果就是亏掉本金。主要原因是当前大环境不好，盲目理财或创业大概率是要亏钱的。所以，在进入到2026年 之后，很多储户陷入到存款利率太低，理财和创业风险又在上升，不知该如何投资的困惑。 第四，中小银行倒闭的数量还在增加 在进入到2023年之后，国内存款利率在快速下跌。以1年期的大额存单为例，过去利率是2.25%，现在存款利率只有1.4%。如果你把50万存入银行，到期存 款利息收入只有7000元，较过去减少了4250元。而受到存款利率收入大幅减少影响最大的是中老年人群体，以及靠存款利息收入生活的群体。导致银行存款 利率 ...

2025年已经过去了。这一年储户们存钱的热情还是越来越高涨。数据显示：1-11月居民存款增加12.06万元。老百姓之所以爱存钱。这主要是为了应对失 业、疾病等突发事件。此外，现在股票、基金、银行理财等高收益产品的风险比较大，弄不好会蚀掉本金，还不如把钱存到银行里面，这样才能更放心。 而面对当前存款利率、投资市场，以及普通家庭的实际情况，有银行职员表示：2026年起，手里有定期存款的人，应尽量做好这4个准备，这样才能采取相 应的措施。让我们一起来了解一下： 准备一：存款利率还有下调的空间 从2023年开始，国内存款利率就进入到下降的通道之中。以3年期定期存款为例，之前的利率是3.25%，现在已经跌到了1.75%。如果把10万元存入银行定 期，平均每年利息收入是1750元，与过去相比利息少了1500元。而未来存款利率还会有下降的空间。而受利率下降影响最大的是，喜欢存钱的老年人群体， 以及想靠存款利息收入生存的人。 随着银行存款利率持续下降，而物价水平却在不断回升，未来存款利率肯定无法跑赢通胀。不仅如此，由于每年物价有不同程度的上涨，储户放在银行里的 存款的购买力也是一年不如一年。面对存款利率无法跑赢通胀，甚至存款 ...

固收-30y 国债定价怎么看？20251222 摘要 年末商业银行债供需结构承压，地方债发行比例高企，大行指标接近上 限，保费增速下滑导致保险有效久期下降，长债审批能力受限，需关注 潜在的供需缺口风险。 基金持续卖出长债，今年净卖出超长债累计约 600 亿，基金中长期利率 债久期回到 4 月初水平，长债仓位下降和风险初步释放，但未来仍可能 波动。 明年整体供需结构面临压力，预计净融资量增加至 6.76-6.8 万亿水平。 若需求不足，高成本可能导致缩短发债期间。一季度地方政府计划发行 量仍处于历史高位。 预计明年基金对超长久期品种的需求将维持在 2023 年的水平，略弱于 2024 年，但好于 2020 上半年。保险方面，由于低利率环境下分红险 比例提高，其对超长期品种配置比例可能下降。 预计明年保险行业对偿付比例的需求将延续今年的下降趋势，对超长期 债券的需求可能减少约 2000 亿元。银行方面，若维持今年创债买入比 例，其退价份额将小幅下降约 1,000 亿元。 基金方面，今年（2025 年）超长久期策略有所调整，从中长期策略转向灵活 变化，以适应低利率环境中的交易需求。预计明年（2026 年）基金对超长 ...

最近，有不少网友提出，若拥有500万存款，放在全球是什么水平？放银行能靠利息为生吗？实际上，国内拥有500万存款的家庭数量并不多。2024年胡润财 富报告发布了数据，中国拥有600万元资产的富裕家庭有512.8万户。看起来数量有不少，但中国的家庭数量大约是4.94亿户。这就意味着，512.8万户占国内 家庭总数大约只有1%。 所以，如果你的家庭总资产超过600万，在国内就属于凤毛麟角的存在了。值得一提的是，即使你的资产达到600万，很多家庭的房子市值就达到400多万， 剩下的可投资的资产也只有100多万。所以，资产达到600万，与拥有存款500万相比，这个含金量还要低很多。这就意味着，国内拥有500万存款的家庭数 量，占国内家庭总数的比重远低于1%。 那么，如果在国内拥有500万存款，放在全球是什么水平呢？根据估算500万相当于70万美元左右。放在全球也是绝大多数人难以企及的水平。如果放在发达 国家，应该算是中上等家庭水平的家庭，而如果放在发展中国家，那应该算是非常富裕的家庭了。关键还是要看你所处的哪个国家，以及哪座城市了。 事实上，拥有500万存款，放银行能否靠利息为生，这取决于两个方面的因素：第一，要看当 ...

不过，就在这笔巨额奖金打到中奖者账户上的同时，银行后台的风控系统马上就会亮起红灯。届时，银行方面会在第一时间"盯"上你了。不过，中奖者也不 用担心，银行此举主要是为了打击洗钱活动。所以，你只要提供两分资料，就可以顺利通过审核。一份是彩票中心颁发的中奖证明。另一份是已经完税的个 人所得税凭证。而一旦通过银行审核 ，中奖者就可以自由支配这笔奖金了。 不过，也有网友提出担忧，中奖者手里有这么多奖金，银行员工会不会泄密？事实上，银行客户的信息都是最为机密的，若是银行员工把中奖者的信息给泄 露出去，轻则被开除，重则可能还要坐牢。所以，银行员工即使嘴上再会漏风，也不可能为了泄露你的个人信息，而毁了自己一生的前途。 那么，银行员工会不会围着中奖者推销理财产品呢？实际上，按照银行内部的规定，严禁银行员工主动向客户强行推销理财产品。不过，多数中奖者会主动 开口询问，如何使自己的这笔巨额奖金能够保值增值？只有客户在表达出想要投资理财的愿望之时，银行方面才会邀请你进入私人财富管理银行。届时，会 有银行理财经理根据你对风险的厌恶程度，为你量身定制多元化资产配置方案。 最近，网上有一个讨论，就是如果你买彩票中了800万大奖，奖金打进银 ...

Core Insights - The enthusiasm for saving among Chinese residents is increasing, with a record surge of 10.77 trillion yuan in bank deposits in the first half of 2025, indicating a shift in saving behavior among younger generations [1] - There are notable changes in bank deposits, particularly for families with savings exceeding 500,000 yuan, which require attention starting from September [3] Changes in Bank Deposits - **Declining Deposit Rates**: Starting in 2024, deposit rates in China have entered a downward trend, with the 3-year deposit rate dropping from 3.05% to 1.55%. This results in a significant decrease in annual interest income from 15,250 yuan to 7,750 yuan for a 500,000 yuan deposit, a difference of 7,500 yuan [4][6] - **Inverted Deposit Rates**: Some banks are experiencing an inverted deposit rate situation, where the 3-year deposit rate (1.55%) is higher than the 5-year rate (1.3%). This is due to increased demand for 3-year fixed deposits, prompting banks to raise rates for that term [6] - **Increasing Bank Failures**: The number of bank failures is rising, with 105 banks approved for dissolution in 2024. Depositors with amounts exceeding 500,000 yuan may face potential losses, as only the first 500,000 yuan is fully insured under the deposit insurance regulations [6][9] Recommendations for Depositors - **Investing in Large Time Deposits**: Depositors are advised to consider purchasing 3-year large time deposits to lock in higher interest rates, as these typically offer better rates than regular fixed deposits and have transferability features [9] - **Checking Deposit Insurance**: It is crucial for depositors to ensure that their bank participates in deposit insurance, as this guarantees full compensation for deposits and interest up to 500,000 yuan [11] - **Diversifying Deposits**: To mitigate risks, depositors should avoid placing all their funds in one bank. Spreading deposits across 2-3 banks, with each bank holding no more than 500,000 yuan, can help ensure full compensation in case of bank failures [11] Investment Strategies for High Depositors - **Risk-Averse Investors**: For those with deposits over 500,000 yuan who are risk-averse, investing in large time deposits or government bonds is recommended [13] - **Aggressive Investors**: More aggressive investors can diversify their portfolios by allocating 40% to risk-free assets, 30% to low-risk investments like bank wealth management products, and 30% to mixed funds and dividend-paying bank stocks, balancing risk and potential returns [13]

Core Insights - The perception of having 1 million yuan in savings is misleading, as it is considered a significant amount in China, with only about 0.1% of households achieving this level [3][4] - The disparity in savings among different regions and income levels is notable, with higher proportions of wealthy households in first-tier cities compared to smaller cities [3][4] - The challenges faced by ordinary families in accumulating savings of 1 million yuan are substantial, often seen as an unattainable goal [5][6] Group 1: Savings Statistics - Only around 0.1% of China's 1.4 billion population has savings of 1 million yuan, equating to less than 500,000 households [3] - In first-tier cities like Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen, the proportion of families with over 1 million yuan in savings is higher due to greater income levels [3][4] Group 2: Challenges in Saving - Ordinary workers face low wages and high living expenses, making it difficult to save; a typical family may only manage to save a few thousand yuan [4][5] - Even high-income families struggle to save 1 million yuan due to significant monthly expenses, including housing, education, and daily living costs [5][6] Group 3: Investment Recommendations - For those who do manage to save 1 million yuan, a diversified asset allocation strategy is recommended, including risk-free products, low-risk investments, and moderate-risk options [7][8] - Suggested allocation includes 400,000 yuan in risk-free products, 300,000 yuan in low-risk investments, and 300,000 yuan in moderate-risk products to maximize returns while minimizing risks [7][8]

Core Insights - Recent data from the central bank indicates a significant outflow of deposits, with a reduction of 1.11 trillion yuan in July 2025, which is 780 billion yuan more than the same period last year [1][11] - Industry experts predict that the trend of deposit outflow may continue in the short term, with an expected annual increase in resident deposits falling below 1 trillion yuan [1] Group 1: Deposit Outflow Trends - The outflow of deposits is primarily directed towards the A-share market, with non-bank financial institution deposits surging by 2.14 trillion yuan, marking a ten-year high [5] - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 3.74%, while the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index increased by 5.20% and 8.14%, respectively, due to the influx of funds into the A-share market [5] - Public funds have also seen significant growth, with the total scale reaching 34.39 trillion yuan by the end of June 2025, marking the ninth historical high since early 2024 [7] Group 2: Investment Shifts - A substantial portion of the outflow has been directed towards public funds, particularly bond funds, which saw a growth of 507.8 billion yuan in June 2025 [7] - Bank wealth management products have attracted deposits, with the market size reaching 30.67 trillion yuan by the end of June 2025, despite declining yields [9] - The annualized yield of bank wealth management products stands at 2.12%, significantly higher than the 0.95% yield of one-year fixed deposits from major state-owned banks [9] Group 3: Consumer Behavior - There is a notable trend of residents using their deposits for early mortgage repayments, with personal housing loan balances decreasing by 852 billion yuan in the first seven months of 2025 [9] - Consumer spending has also increased, particularly in the mid-range sectors such as dining, entertainment, and tourism, with domestic tourism reaching 3.2 trillion yuan in revenue [9]

Group 1 - The core idea emphasizes the importance of establishing a scientific fund allocation awareness regardless of income level [2] - Income should be divided into fixed expenses, daily expenses, insurance, and long-term investments, with a focus on ensuring that investment losses do not impact daily life [2][3] - Long-term investments should be allocated to equity funds, with the proportion based on individual risk tolerance [2] Group 2 - Asset allocation should focus on low correlation among different funds, diversifying across industries, markets, and fund types to optimize risk-return ratios [4] - Selecting funds based solely on past year performance is discouraged, as market conditions can change, affecting future performance [5] - It is essential to consider the investment style and strategy of fund managers, as well as the overall strength of the fund company [5] Group 3 - To gather more information about fund products, reading the fund's prospectus is recommended, focusing on sections like investment goals, strategies, and asset allocation [6] - The investment section of the prospectus is crucial, as it outlines the fund's objectives and strategies, which vary between passive and active funds [6]