证券研究报告 电力设备与新能源 英伟达明确 AIDC 配储刚需，中压整 流器、SST 为下一代配电方案 华泰研究 2025 年 10 月 16 日│中国内地 动态点评 刘俊 研究员 karlliu@htsc.com +(852) 3658 6000 | 边文姣 | 研究员 | | --- | --- | | SAC No. S0570518110004 | bianwenjiao@htsc.com | | SFC No. BSJ399 | +(86) 755 8277 6411 | | 陈爽* | 研究员 | SAC No. S0570524040001 chenshuang@htsc.com +(86) 21 2897 2228 杨景文* 研究员 SAC No. S0570525080002yangjingwen022663@htsc.com +(86) 21 2897 2228 | 王嵩 | 联系人 | | --- | --- | | SAC No. S0570125090007 | alanwang@htsc.com | | SFC No. BLE051 | +(852) 3658 6000 | 行业走 ...

Core Insights - The competition among major internet companies has shifted from app performance to the environmental impact of their data centers, with Douyin planning to procure over 200MWh of large-scale lithium battery storage and renewable energy equipment to ensure uninterrupted power supply for its core business [1][4] - Douyin's aggressive procurement strategy reflects a sense of urgency in its green energy initiatives, aiming to respond to carbon neutrality policies, reduce reliance on traditional power grids, and ensure business continuity [4][6] - The industry is collectively transforming under policy guidance, with a mandatory requirement for new data centers to achieve over 80% green electricity usage by the end of 2025, pushing all data center operators to accelerate their green initiatives [4][6] Company Actions - Douyin's tender specifies that bidders must have experience with large-scale lithium battery storage systems of at least 30MWh, with a tight timeline for project completion by the end of December [4] - Tencent has already implemented a successful integrated wind, solar, and storage project, which is the first of its kind in China, generating 14 million kWh annually, equivalent to the annual electricity consumption of 5,000 households [6][8] - Tencent's project not only reduces carbon emissions by nearly 8,000 tons annually but also saves over 3.5 million yuan in electricity costs, demonstrating that green transformation can yield economic benefits [8] Industry Trends - The shift towards green computing is becoming a core competitive advantage in the data center industry, as the demand for computing power continues to grow alongside the digital economy [8][10] - The green electricity ratio directly impacts operational costs, and more clients are considering environmental performance when selecting cloud service providers [8] - Future policies will further clarify the direction of green energy initiatives, with ongoing plans to enhance the integration of computing power and energy management through innovative mechanisms [10]

低价竞争持续是当前储能行业面临的重要挑战。 9 月 17 日，宁德时代董事长曾毓群表示，在行业高度繁荣的同时，储能安全事故频发、价格战击穿行业底线、产品参数造假、技术同质化及 无序扩张盛行，已严重制约行业健康发展。 他提到， 近三年间，储能系统价格下降了约八成，近期某个集采项目的中标价格甚至低过了 0.4 元 /Wh ，严重偏离成本。 他认为， 低价 必然带来减量减配，为行业埋下了质量的安全隐患。 今年价格战已经蔓延到了海外，这不仅让储能企业的毛利急速缩水，关键是不可持续， 得不偿失。 随着集中式大项目加速落地，市场竞争加剧，价格竞争愈发激烈。 2025 年 8 月储能系统价格持续探底， 2h 和 4h 锂电储能系统中标均 价、最低报价均创历史新低。 举例来看， 2025 年 8 月 18 日，中节能乌兰察布市察右前旗天皮山 80 万千瓦时独立储能电站储能设备采购项目开标，中天储能科技有限 公司中标，中标单价为 0.389 元 /Wh ，低于 0.4 元 /Wh 。 8 月 6 日，中国能建 2025 年度磷酸铁锂电池储能系统集中采购项目公示结果，标段 3 （ 4 小时系统）中，安诚新能源、晶科能源等企业 报 ...

Core Viewpoint - The storage industry in China is responding to the "anti-involution" initiative, with over 150 companies signing a proposal to promote fair competition and healthy development in the sector [1][2]. Group 1: Industry Response - As of August 14, 152 companies have actively participated in the initiative, including major players like BYD, EVE Energy, Huawei Digital Energy, and Xiamen Hichain Energy Technology [1]. - Among the top ten lithium-ion battery manufacturers, nine have joined the initiative, and eight out of the top ten energy storage system integrators are also participants, indicating strong support from the industry [1]. Group 2: Industry Challenges - The new energy storage capacity in China reached 94.91 million kilowatts (22.2 billion kilowatt-hours) by the end of June, reflecting a growth of approximately 29% compared to the end of 2024 [1]. - Despite rapid growth, the price of lithium battery storage systems has plummeted nearly 80% over the past three years, leading some companies to face a situation of "increased revenue without increased profit" [1]. Group 3: Proposal Details - The initiative emphasizes reasonable pricing and fair competition, encouraging companies to base their market participation on technology, service, reputation, and performance capabilities [2]. - It advocates for integrity, transparency, professionalism, and prudence in bidding activities, aiming to eliminate false commitments and irrational low-price competition [2]. - The initiative is seen as essential for sustainable development in the industry, promoting healthy market environments and accelerating technological advancements [2].

Core Insights - The report discusses the recently published draft amendment to the pricing law, emphasizing the concept of "anti-involution" and prohibiting dumping prices below cost [2] - The focus is on the recovery of prices within the photovoltaic industry, with expectations for polysilicon prices to return above industry cost levels due to supply-side reforms [2] - The report highlights potential price recovery opportunities across various segments of the photovoltaic supply chain, including silicon materials, solar glass, wafers, cells, and modules [2] Industry Performance - The report provides a performance overview of different industries, noting that the steel industry saw a 20.7% increase in January, 19.1% in March, and 38.2% over the past year [1] - The construction materials sector experienced increases of 18.5% in January, 15.5% in March, and 33.0% year-on-year [1] - The non-ferrous metals industry reported a 14.7% increase in January, 22.1% in March, and 40.3% over the past year [1] - The telecommunications sector had a performance of 13.0% in January, 29.1% in March, and 51.5% year-on-year [1] - The pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector saw increases of 11.6% in January, 18.7% in March, and 33.0% over the past year [1] Key Focus Areas - The report identifies three main focus areas for investment opportunities: 1. Price recovery opportunities in the supply chain driven by supply-side reforms, particularly in polysilicon, solar glass, wafers, cells, and modules [2] 2. Long-term growth opportunities arising from new technologies, specifically monitoring the progress of perovskite GW-level production lines and the expansion of BC [2] 3. The recovery trends in profitability for lithium battery components, including lithium iron phosphate, lithium hexafluorophosphate, and copper foil [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the significant growth in the global energy storage market, particularly in lithium battery shipments and installations, driven by various factors including renewable energy demands and energy security needs [4]. Company Performance Summary - **Tesla**: Revenue of $97.69 billion with a 1% increase; energy storage revenue of $10.086 billion, showing a 67% year-on-year growth; net profit decreased by 53% to $7.091 billion [3]. - **Wärtsilä**: Revenue of €6.449 billion, a 7% increase; net profit increased by 88.5% to €507 million [3]. - **海博思创**: Revenue of 8.27 billion yuan, an 18.44% increase; net profit of 647 million yuan, up by 11.92% [3]. - **Fluence**: Revenue of $2.7 billion, a 22% increase; net profit increased by 129.03% to $30.4 million [3]. - **阿特斯**: Revenue of 46.161 billion yuan, a decrease of 10.03%; net profit decreased by 21.09% to 2.291 billion yuan [3]. - **华宝新能源**: Revenue between 3.4 billion to 3.7 billion yuan, a significant increase of 146.94%-159.91%; net profit between 200 million to 250 million yuan, up by 215.13%-243.91% [3]. - **新网光**: Revenue of 1.895 billion yuan, an 11.39% increase; net profit of 170 million yuan, up by 2.77% [3]. - **特变电工**: Net profit expected between 3.9 billion to 4.3 billion yuan, a decrease of 59.81% to 63.55% [3]. - **上海电气**: Net profit expected between 680 million to 810 million yuan, an increase of 138.6% to 184.2% [3]. - **易事特**: Net profit expected between 180.1 million to 236.4 million yuan, a decrease of 58% to 68% [3]. - **晶科能源**: Net profit expected between 80 million to 120 million yuan, a decrease of 98.39% to 98.92% [3]. - **科陆电子**: Revenue between 4.3 billion to 4.5 billion yuan, a slight increase of 2.38%-7%; net profit expected to be a loss between 380 million to 480 million yuan [3]. - **育都电源**: Revenue between 8.4 billion to 9.5 billion yuan, a decrease of 35.22% to 42.01%; net profit expected to be a loss between 1.2 billion to 1.56 billion yuan [3]. - **智光电气**: Net profit expected to be a loss between 250 million to 350 million yuan [3]. - **华自科技**: Net profit expected to be a loss between 360 million to 420 million yuan [3]. - **东方日升**: Net profit expected to be a loss between 2.7 billion to 3.5 billion yuan [3]. Industry Growth Insights - The global lithium battery energy storage system installations are projected to reach 63 GW/165 GWh in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 61.5% and 77.4% respectively [4]. - The primary drivers for market growth include the demand for renewable energy consumption in China, increased demand for energy storage systems in the US grid, the green energy transition in Europe, energy security needs, and cross-border grid interconnectivity [4]. - Global shipments of lithium batteries for energy storage are expected to grow over 55% year-on-year, with specific segments like power storage, residential, and commercial storage showing growth rates of over 70%, 25%, and 40% respectively [3].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the commencement of the Shandong Baimingcheng lithium battery control board and energy storage system project, which is expected to significantly contribute to the local economy and the lithium battery industry [1]. Group 1: Project Overview - The Baimingcheng project was signed on February 10 in the Jining Qufu Economic Development Zone with a total investment of 1.06 billion yuan [1]. - Upon completion, the project is expected to produce approximately 500,000 units of intelligent high and low voltage automotive and energy storage general BMS protection boards, 500,000 sets of intelligent chargers, 300,000 sets of motor controllers, and a lithium battery energy storage system with a capacity of 10 GWh [1]. - The anticipated annual output value of the project is estimated to reach 2 billion yuan [1].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the power equipment and new energy industry, highlighting high growth potential and certainty in sectors like energy storage and lithium batteries [5][11]. Core Insights - Energy storage is expected to maintain high prosperity with a cumulative installed capacity CAGR of 37% from 2023 to 2030, emphasizing the importance of selecting leading companies in the sector [5]. - Lithium battery demand is supported by three main factors: policy-driven growth in new energy vehicle demand, the explosion of energy storage, and a recovery in material supply [5]. - The photovoltaic sector is anticipated to rebound in the second half of 2025, driven by high-quality demand and industry collaboration [5]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Review - The report notes that from February 28 to March 7, 2025, the CSI 300 index increased by 1.39%, while the new energy index rose by 1.16%, ranking 16th among industries [11]. 2. Valuation Analysis - As of March 7, 2025, the price-to-earnings ratio (TTM) for the power equipment and new energy industry is 26.64, which is at 29.69% of its 10-year historical valuation percentile, indicating it is at a historical low [15][17]. 3. Industry Data Tracking - The report highlights that the photovoltaic industry is entering a down cycle in pricing, with significant price drops in silicon materials and components, leading to pressure on profit margins [20][25]. - The lithium battery supply chain shows a mixed trend, with some materials experiencing price increases while others remain stable or decline [35][36]. 4. Key News Tracking - The report covers significant developments in the wind power sector, including a 4.12GW procurement in February 2025 and government initiatives to boost offshore wind energy [50][51]. - It also notes advancements in energy storage technology, such as the deployment of a commercial 8-hour lithium battery storage system in Australia [66].

Core Viewpoint - The conference highlighted the emerging opportunities in the commercial energy storage sector, with a focus on trends leading up to 2025 and the integration of energy storage with photovoltaic systems [1][3][29]. Industry Development - The global energy storage market is projected to add 100GW by 2025, with 2024 expected to see 77GW/183GWh of new installations, driven by energy transition, technological innovation, and supportive policies [4][5]. - China is leading the charge with a cumulative installed capacity of 73.76GW by 2024, surpassing pumped storage for the first time [5]. Technological Trends - Energy storage has transitioned from a supplementary role to a necessity, particularly with the rise of distributed photovoltaic systems, which reached a cumulative capacity of 370 million kW by the end of 2024 [6][7]. - Innovations in long-duration storage technologies, such as flow batteries and compressed air storage, are expected to enhance the capabilities of energy systems [7]. Regional Market Insights - The Southeast Asian energy storage market is estimated to reach $2.85 billion (approximately 206.733 billion RMB) in 2024, with a growth rate of 6.77%, focusing on industrial applications [8]. Investment Opportunities - The commercial energy storage sector is experiencing a shift towards higher value propositions, with investment returns becoming increasingly attractive in regions like Zhejiang, Shanghai, and Guangdong, where payback periods are under four years [12][13]. - The integration of financing solutions is seen as a way to mitigate risks and enhance cash flow for energy storage projects [21]. Market Dynamics - The commercial energy storage landscape is evolving, with new entrants gaining market share and competition intensifying among top players [18]. - The trend towards integrated solutions combining energy storage with photovoltaic systems is expected to dominate the market, driven by cost reductions and technological advancements [19][22]. Future Outlook - The industry anticipates a significant market shift due to new energy policies, which will create both challenges and opportunities for energy storage providers [29]. - The consensus among industry leaders is that only companies with core competencies in safety and operational services will thrive in the evolving market landscape [29].