锌 当月合约-现货 次月合约-现货 价差 110 15 理论价差 118 265 铅 当月合约-现货 次月合约-现货 价差 20 140 理论价差 94 204 跨品种套利跟踪 2026/02/11 | 铜/锌 | | 铜/铝 | 铜/铅 | 铝/锌 | 铝/铅 | 铅/锌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪（三连） | 4.16 | 4.31 | 6.10 | 0.96 | 1.41 | 0.68 | | 伦（三连） 3.86 4.24 6.64 0.91 1.57 0.58 | | | | | | | | 免责声明: 以上内容所依据的信息均来源于交易所、媒体及资讯公司等发布的公开资料或通过合法授权渠道向发布人取得的资讯，我们力求分析及建议内 | | | | | | | | 容的客观、公正，研究方法专业审慎，分析结论合理，但公司对信息来源的准确性和完整性不作任何保证，也不保证所依据的信息和建议不会 | | | | | | | | 发生任何变化。且全部分析及建议内容仅供参考，不构成对您的任何投资建议及入市依据，客户应当自主做出期货交易决策，独立承 ...

Market Updates - The Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges announced the holiday schedule for the 2026 Spring Festival, with a break from February 15 to February 23, resuming trading on February 24 [1] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange adjusted the price limits and margin requirements for various futures contracts, including copper, aluminum, and gold, effective from February 9 [2] Company News - Runze Technology announced plans to issue convertible bonds to acquire assets, with trading suspended from February 6 for up to 10 trading days [4] - Tianqi Model is planning a major asset restructuring through the issuance of shares and cash to acquire equity in Dongshi Automotive Technology Group, with trading suspended from February 6 [5] - *ST Cube reported a significant stock price increase of 314.93% from January 20 to February 5, leading to a trading suspension for verification due to potential market volatility [5] - Jiangfeng Electronics plans to acquire control of Beijing Kaide Quartz Co., with trading resuming on February 6 [6] - JinkoSolar clarified that it has not engaged in any business with SpaceX and has no current orders related to "space photovoltaics," which has not impacted its financial performance [8] - Jinfu Technology intends to acquire 51% stakes in two companies for a total consideration of up to 714 million yuan, with a share transfer agreement in place [9] Industry Insights - CITIC Securities reported that the automotive industry may face profit margin pressures in Q1 2026 due to rising costs of storage and battery materials, with potential impacts from lithium carbonate price increases [10] - Galaxy Securities highlighted that AI's benefits are primarily seen in improved efficiency and cost reduction across platforms and content production, suggesting a focus on internet and AI-related stocks [11]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The report presents cross - market, cross - period, and cross - variety arbitrage tracking data for various non - ferrous metals including copper, zinc, aluminum, nickel, lead, and tin on January 22, 2026 [1][3][4] Summary by Related Catalogs Cross - Market Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: Spot domestic price is 100125, LME price is 12877, and the ratio is 7.81; March domestic price is 101450, LME price is 12907, and the ratio is 7.80. The equilibrium ratio for spot import is 7.90, with a profit of - 1047.36, and the profit for spot export is 560.57 [1] - **Zinc**: Spot domestic price is 24200, LME price is 3155, and the ratio is 7.67; March domestic price is 24385, LME price is 3195, and the ratio is 5.34. The equilibrium ratio for spot import is 8.32, with a profit of - 2060.52 [1] - **Aluminum**: Spot domestic price is 23710, LME price is 3123, and the ratio is 7.59; March domestic price is 24205, LME price is 3137, and the ratio is 7.63. The equilibrium ratio for spot import is 8.32, with a profit of - 2271.71 [1] - **Nickel**: Spot domestic price is 139650, LME price is 17864, and the ratio is 7.82. The equilibrium ratio for spot import is 7.99, with a profit of - 203.17 [1] - **Lead**: Spot domestic price is 16875, LME price is 1992, and the ratio is 8.47; March domestic price is 17165, LME price is 2039, and the ratio is 11.86. The equilibrium ratio for spot import is 8.54, with a profit of - 145.43 [3] Cross - Period Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: The spreads of次月 - 现货月, 三月 - 现货月, 四月 - 现货月, 五月 - 现货月 are 340, 510, 640, 620 respectively, and the theoretical spreads are 607, 1111, 1625, 2139 respectively [4] - **Zinc**: The spreads of次月 - 现货月, 三月 - 现货月, 四月 - 现货月, 五月 - 现货月 are - 15, 20, 30, 25 respectively, and the theoretical spreads are 225, 356, 486, 617 respectively [4] - **Aluminum**: The spreads of次月 - 现货月, 三月 - 现货月, 四月 - 现货月, 五月 - 现货月 are 275, 325, 355, 390 respectively, and the theoretical spreads are 230, 362, 493, 625 respectively [4] - **Lead**: The spreads of次月 - 现货月, 三月 - 现货月, 四月 - 现货月, 五月 - 现货月 are - 50, 0, 45, 50 respectively, and the theoretical spreads are 211, 318, 424, 531 respectively [4] - **Nickel**: The spreads of次月 - 现货月, 三月 - 现货月, 四月 - 现货月, 五月 - 现货月 are 1810, 2040, 2210, 2130 respectively [4] - **Tin**: The spread of 5 - 1 is 4100, and the theoretical spread is 8490 [4] Spot - Futures Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: The spread of当月合约 - 现货 is 915, and the theoretical spread is 632; the spread of次月合约 - 现货 is 1255, and the theoretical spread is 1234 [4] - **Zinc**: The spread of当月合约 - 现货 is 165, and the theoretical spread is 208; the spread of次月合约 - 现货 is 150, and the theoretical spread is 389 [5] - **Lead**: The spread of当月合约 - 现货 is 290, and the theoretical spread is 205; the spread of次月合约 - 现货 is 240, and the theoretical spread is 317 [5] Cross - Variety Arbitrage Tracking - The ratios of copper/zinc, copper/aluminum, copper/lead, aluminum/zinc, aluminum/lead, lead/zinc are 4.16, 4.19, 5.91, 0.99, 1.41, 0.70 respectively in Shanghai (triple - continuous), and 4.03, 4.11, 6.34, 0.98, 1.54, 0.64 respectively in London (triple - continuous) [5]

Monetary Policy and Financial Support - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has lowered the interest rates of various structural monetary policy tools by 0.25 percentage points, with the one-year relending rate decreasing from 1.5% to 1.25% [1] - The minimum down payment ratio for commercial housing loans has been reduced to 30%, and the relending quota for supporting agriculture and small enterprises has been increased by 500 billion yuan, with a total quota for private enterprises set at 1 trillion yuan [2][3] - The loan quota for technological innovation and transformation has been raised from 800 billion yuan to 1.2 trillion yuan, including support for private small and medium-sized enterprises with high R&D investment levels [2][3] Financial Market Data - As of the end of December, the broad money supply (M2) stood at 340.29 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 8.5% [3] - The total social financing scale for the year 2025 reached 35.6 trillion yuan, an increase of 3.34 trillion yuan compared to the previous year, with new RMB loans amounting to 16.27 trillion yuan [3] Regulatory Developments - The Financial Regulatory Bureau has emphasized the need for effective risk resolution for small financial institutions and the establishment of a normalized financing coordination mechanism for urban real estate [5] - The Ministry of Finance announced a tax exemption policy for foreign institutions investing in the domestic bond market, effective from January 1, 2026, to December 31, 2027 [8] Corporate Announcements - China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation has set a goal to advance reusable rocket technology and promote commercial aerospace development in 2026 [7] - Liou Technology announced a significant contract with CATL worth 120 billion yuan, but the stock will remain suspended for one additional day due to uncertainties [12] - Mu Yuan Co. has projected a net profit of 14.7 billion to 15.7 billion yuan for 2025, indicating a year-on-year decline of 12.20% to 17.79% [16] Stock Market Performance - The three major U.S. stock indices closed higher, with the Dow Jones up by 0.60%, the S&P 500 rising by 0.26%, and the Nasdaq increasing by 0.25% [17] - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index fell by 0.6%, indicating a mixed performance among popular Chinese concept stocks [17]

Core Viewpoint - Silver prices have accelerated their decline, with spot silver and COMEX silver both dropping over 4%, while Shanghai silver futures fell more than 3% as of January 7 [1] Group 1: Market Adjustments - The Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) issued four announcements prior to the night trading session on January 7, advising market participants to manage risk and adjusting trading margin ratios, price limits, trading limits, and transaction fees for silver futures [1][3] - Starting from January 9, 2026, the SHFE will adjust the trading margin ratios and price limits for silver futures contracts AG2601, AG2602, AG2603, and AG2604, with price limits set at 16% and margin ratios for hedging positions at 17% and for general positions at 18% [3][4] Group 2: Trading Limits and Fees - The maximum number of contracts for day trading in silver futures for non-futures company members and special overseas non-broker participants will be limited to 7,000 contracts starting from January 9, 2026, with specific rules for related accounts [4] - The transaction fees for silver futures AG2604 will be adjusted to 0.025% of the transaction amount for day trading starting from January 9, 2026 [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - The report presents cross - market, cross - period, spot - futures, and cross - variety arbitrage tracking data for non - ferrous metals (copper, zinc, aluminum, nickel, lead, tin) on December 31, 2025, including domestic and LME prices, price ratios, equilibrium price ratios, profits, spreads, and theoretical spreads [1][4][5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Cross - Market Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: On December 31, 2025, the domestic spot price was 97,700, LME price was 12,516, and the ratio was 7.86; the three - month domestic price was 98,240, LME price was 12,477, and the ratio was 7.84. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 7.95 with a profit of - 1,171.20 [1]. - **Zinc**: The domestic spot price was 23,290, LME price was 3,091, and the ratio was 7.54; the three - month domestic price was 23,420, LME price was 3,123, and the ratio was 5.60. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.37 with a profit of - 2,576.06 [1]. - **Aluminum**: The domestic spot price was 22,180, LME price was 2,941, and the ratio was 7.54; the three - month domestic price was 22,620, LME price was 2,974, and the ratio was 7.54. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.33 with a profit of - 2,321.75 [1]. - **Nickel**: The domestic spot price was 131,750, LME price was 16,358, and the ratio was 8.05. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.04 with a profit of 1,259.30 [1]. - **Lead**: The domestic spot price was 17,400, LME price was 1,979, and the ratio was 8.74; the three - month domestic price was 17,510, LME price was 2,021, and the ratio was 11.48. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.60 with a profit of 273.72 [3]. Cross - Period Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: The spreads for次月 - spot month, 三月 - spot month, 四月 - spot month, and 五月 - spot month were - 630, - 480, - 420, and - 460 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 596, 1089, 1592, and 2094 respectively [4]. - **Zinc**: The spreads were 180, 220, 265, and 295, and the theoretical spreads were 219, 344, 469, and 594 respectively [4]. - **Aluminum**: The spreads were 50, 105, 145, and 180, and the theoretical spreads were 224, 348, 473, and 597 respectively [4]. - **Lead**: The spreads were 65, 70, 70, and 110, and the theoretical spreads were 212, 320, 429, and 537 respectively [4]. - **Nickel**: The spreads for 次月 - spot month, 三月 - spot month, 四月 - spot month, and 五月 - spot month were 7,080, 7,360, 7,630, and 7,870 respectively [4]. - **Tin**: The 5 - 1 spread was 1,410, and the theoretical spread was 6,712 [4]. Spot - Futures Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: The spreads for the current - month contract - spot and the next - month contract - spot were 1,150 and 520 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 489 and 936 respectively [4]. - **Zinc**: The spreads were - 90 and 90, and the theoretical spreads were 146 and 282 (also mentioned 185 and 325) respectively [4][5]. - **Lead**: The spreads were 40 and 105, and the theoretical spreads were 136 and 252 respectively [5]. Cross - Variety Arbitrage Tracking - On December 31, 2025, the cross - variety ratios for copper/zinc, copper/aluminum, copper/lead, aluminum/zinc, aluminum/lead, and lead/zinc were 4.19, 4.34, 5.61, 0.97, 1.29, 0.75 in Shanghai (three - consecutive) and 4.02, 4.21, 6.25, 0.95, 1.48, 0.64 in London (three - consecutive) [5].

Group 1 - The internationalization of the futures market in China is being enhanced, with plans to expand the number of futures and options products available for foreign investors to 100 [1] - Three futures exchanges in China have announced the addition of 16 new futures and options products for qualified foreign institutional investors (QFII) [1][2] - The total number of futures and options products available for QFII has increased from 46 to 75 in the first quarter of this year, covering major sectors of the economy [2] Group 2 - After the addition of 16 new products, the total number of futures and options available for qualified foreign investors has reached 91, laying a solid foundation for further market opening [3] - The expansion of products available for foreign investors is expected to enhance China's influence in the global commodity market and provide better price signals for industrial enterprises [3] - Starting from October 9, 2025, qualified foreign investors will be allowed to participate in on-exchange ETF options trading, limited to hedging purposes [3]

Group 1 - The central financial committee issued opinions to accelerate the construction of Shanghai as an international financial center, aiming for significant improvements in financial system adaptability, competitiveness, and inclusiveness over the next five to ten years [1] - The opinions emphasize enhancing Shanghai's role as a global hub for RMB asset allocation and risk management, aligning its status with China's comprehensive national strength and international influence [1] Group 2 - The first meeting of the Shanghai International Financial Center Construction Coordination Promotion Mechanism was held, attended by key financial leaders, discussing the support from central financial institutions [2] - The meeting reviewed the progress of the Shanghai International Financial Center construction and deliberated on related topics [2] Group 3 - The 2025 Lujiazui Forum opened with a theme focused on financial openness and high-quality development amid global economic changes, featuring speeches from prominent financial officials [3] Group 4 - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) announced the formal implementation of a third set of standards for the ChiNext board, allowing unprofitable companies to list under specific conditions [4] - The CSRC is also promoting the development of sci-tech bonds and accelerating the launch of sci-tech bond ETFs [4] Group 5 - The CSRC announced that qualified foreign investors will be allowed to participate in ETF options trading starting from October 9, 2025, with a focus on hedging [5] - Further reforms to optimize the qualified foreign investor system are expected to enhance the capital market's openness [5] Group 6 - The Financial Regulatory Bureau and Shanghai Municipal Government jointly issued an action plan to support the construction of the Shanghai International Financial Center, aiming to enhance its competitiveness and influence [6] Group 7 - The Shanghai Futures Exchange will expand the range of commodities available for trading by qualified foreign institutional investors, including natural rubber, lead, and tin [8]

Financial Policy and Market Developments - The People's Bank of China announced eight significant financial opening measures at the 2025 Lujiazui Forum, including the establishment of an interbank market trading report library and a digital RMB international operation center [3] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) introduced a "1+6" policy to deepen the reform of the Sci-Tech Innovation Board, aiming to enhance market attractiveness and competitiveness [3][4] - The State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE) will implement a package of foreign exchange innovation policies in the free trade pilot zone, including optimizing international trade settlement [3][4] Regulatory and Institutional Support - The Financial Regulatory Bureau and Shanghai Municipal Government jointly released an action plan to support the construction of Shanghai as an international financial center, promoting innovation in technology finance and cross-border finance [3][4] - The CSRC announced that starting from October 9, 2025, qualified foreign investors will be allowed to participate in on-market ETF options trading, aimed at expanding investment opportunities for foreign institutions [3][4] Market Expansion and Investment Opportunities - The Shanghai Futures Exchange will expand the range of commodities available for qualified foreign institutional investors, including natural rubber and lead futures contracts [4] - The Shanghai Stock Exchange is drafting guidelines to support the listing of unprofitable technology companies, enhancing the inclusivity and adaptability of the capital market [3][4] International Financial Cooperation - The Shanghai-Hong Kong International Financial Center Collaborative Development Action Plan was signed, supporting the optimization of free trade account functions and encouraging the use of RMB for cross-border transactions [4] - The Central Financial Committee issued opinions to accelerate the construction of Shanghai as an international financial center, promoting high-quality development of multi-level equity markets [4]

Group 1 - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) announced that starting from October 9, 2025, qualified foreign institutional investors (QFIIs) will be allowed to participate in on-exchange ETF options trading, with the purpose limited to hedging [1] - This initiative is part of the CSRC's efforts to implement the decisions made during the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, aimed at optimizing the QFII system [1] - The CSRC has already relaxed restrictions for QFIIs in participating in domestic commodity futures and options earlier this year, aiming to expand the investment scope for foreign investors and enhance the stability of their investment behavior in A-shares [1] Group 2 - The Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange announced that starting from June 20, 2025, it will expand the range of tradable products for QFIIs to include futures and options contracts for glass, soda ash, and silicon manganese [2] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange will also expand its tradable products for QFIIs from June 20, 2025, adding futures and options contracts for natural rubber, lead, and tin [2] - The Dalian Commodity Exchange will similarly expand its offerings for QFIIs from June 20, 2025, to include futures and options contracts for ethylene glycol and liquefied petroleum gas [2]