研究报告 Research Report 1 Jul 2025 山西汾酒 Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory (600809 CH) 跟踪报告：以实力迈入复兴第二阶段 Entering the Second Phase of Revitalization With Strength 消费结构加速转型，政策影响短空长多。当前白酒行业仍处于供 需再平衡阶段，由量价齐升转向以价补量。5 月新禁酒令短期对白 酒消费冲击较大，但将加速行业由政务依赖向商务及个人消费转 型。去年以来，促消费政策不断。近日，央行等六部门又推出金 融促消费 19 条，重点支持餐饮、文旅、住宿等行业，利好白酒行 业长期发展。 营收稳居行业前三，25 年总基调稳中求进。15-23 年，公司总营收 /归母净利润复合增速分别为 29.1%/45.5%，稳居白酒行业增速领 先地位。24 年正式锁定行业营收前三。25 年作为汾酒复兴纲领第 二阶段的开局之年，公司以"稳健压倒一切"为总基调，淡化增速目 标，强化盈利质量。通过玻汾控量、老白汾上量、青花 20 放量、 青花 26/30 增量的四轮驱动策略，实现全价格带覆盖和市 ...

酒行业丨市场观察 本周看点： -中 国葡萄酒，没有品牌的巨人； -酒类直播迎来新时代； -"苏超"这么火，酒业要跟上。 概要 ： 中国葡萄酒产业虽产量居全球前列，但品牌认知度低、高端市场占有率少。主要问题 包括产业链碎片化、品牌塑造不足、品质信任危机及外部竞争压力。破局需产区整合、培育龙 头企业，实施品牌战略革命，精准定位市场，融入文化元素，同时加强科研投入与消费者教 育，实现从量到质的转变，推动品牌崛起与文化复兴。 2.酒类直播迎来新时代："直播间品牌"转向线下，中小直播间陆续退场？ 关键词 ： 直播电商,酒类销售,线上渠道,流量转化,头部效应 管理趋严，中小直播间生存压力增大，"旺季更旺、淡季更淡"的现象加剧了腰部以下直播间的 退出趋势。 3."苏超"这么火，酒业要跟上 关键词 ： 足球联赛,地域文化,消费场景,白酒市场,啤酒市场 行业环境 1.吴勇：中国葡萄酒，没有品牌的巨人 关键词 ： 葡萄酒产业,品牌建设,产区整合,文化价值,品质提升 概要 ： 酒类直播电商已进入成熟期，头部主播效应显著，市场格局趋于固化。非头部直播间 因流量转化率低而逐渐退出，而头部达播虽占据主要市场份额，但也面临增长瓶颈。平台扶 ...

Core Viewpoint - The white liquor industry is undergoing a transformation from traditional marketing channels to diversified digital marketing strategies, driven by the rise of younger consumer groups and the experience economy [3][9][11]. Group 1: Digital Marketing Innovations - Shanxi Fenjiu launched the first "3D holographic" marketing advertisement in the white liquor industry on JD.com, allowing consumers to view the product in 360 degrees and place it in their environment using augmented reality [1][4]. - Wuliangye introduced a "digital wine certificate" that ensures authenticity through blockchain technology, with over 68,000 certificates created and a repurchase rate of 26.1% among users [4][12]. - Yanghe Distillery is shifting from deep distribution to precision marketing by launching three cultural liquor products targeting specific consumer groups, such as military enthusiasts and golf lovers [8][12]. Group 2: Changing Consumer Demographics - The main consumer demographic for white liquor is shifting from older generations to younger consumers born between 1985 and 1994, who are less responsive to traditional advertising methods [9][10]. - Young consumers prefer interactive and engaging marketing strategies, moving away from passive consumption of brand information [10][11]. - The rise of social media platforms has led to a significant increase in online engagement, with 83% of consumers using online channels to gather information about liquor [10]. Group 3: Impact on Industry Competition - The competition in the white liquor industry is intensifying as traditional marketing methods face challenges from digital strategies [11]. - Digital marketing is becoming a new competitive dimension, allowing leading companies to build stronger market positions while enabling regional brands to reach national markets more effectively [11]. - The transformation in marketing strategies is reshaping the sales ecosystem, with immersive experiences like 3D displays and AR technology enhancing consumer engagement [11][12].

the f " erle 11:2 th EH a 2017 出品｜搜狐财经 6月17日，山西汾酒在线上召开2024年度暨2025年第一季度业绩说明会。 公司产品策略、国际化和年轻化战略等成为投资者关注重点。 财报显示，2025年一季度山西汾酒营业收入165.22亿元，同比增长7.72%，归属于上市公司股东的净利润66.48亿元，同比增长6.15%。 山西汾酒董事长袁清茂表示，2025年一季度，公司有序推进年度营销规划，保持了稳健的增长。 二季度及全年公司将继续推进"抓区域聚焦促销量增长、抓四轮驱动促销量增长、抓汾享礼遇促利润增长"，继续推进"玻汾控量，老白汾上量，青花20放 量，青花26及以上增量"的产品策略，实现稳健增长和渠道优化。 对于行业发展趋势，山西汾酒副董事长武跃峰指出，当前白酒行业呈现消费向品质集中、产能向产区集中、份额向名酒集中的特征，"稳市场、稳渠道、稳 价格"成为共识。他明确表示，"今后一个时期，稳健将是汾酒发展的主旋律。" 作者｜柴鑫洋 编辑｜李文贤 袁清茂在回应第二增长曲线问题时强调，杏花村酒与竹叶青酒是公司重点培育对象。竹叶青酒正按照"露酒白酒化、功能化、时尚化"三条道路及"悦己、好 ...

[Table_Reportdate] 2025年06月03日 超配 [证券分析师 Table_Authors] 姚星辰 S0630523010001 yxc@longone.com.cn 联系人 吴康辉 wkh@longone.com.cn -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 2024-05 2024-07 2024-09 2024-11 2025-01 2025-03 2025-05 食品饮料(申万) 沪深300 [相关研究 table_product] 1.龙头酒企保持战略定力，期待需求 修 复 — — 食 品 饮 料 行 业 周 报 （2025/5/19-2025/5/25） 2.产能加快调整，2025年奶价有望企 稳——乳制品行业深度报告 3.白酒底部区间，大众品关注高成长 性赛道 — — 食 品 饮 料 行 业 周 报 （2025/5/12-2025/5/18） [Table_NewTitle 白酒持续筑底 ] ，重视新消费趋势 ——食品饮料行业周报（2025/5/26-2025/6/1） [table_main] 投资要点： 行 业 研 究 证券研究报告 HTTP://WWW.LO ...

Core Viewpoint - The top six listed liquor companies in China are transitioning to a low-speed growth model, reflecting a structural change in the industry due to external economic pressures, market transformation, and inventory adjustments [1][3][4] Industry Performance - In Q1 2023, the total revenue of large-scale liquor enterprises in China was 196.3 billion, a slight increase of 0.38% year-on-year, while total profit decreased by 0.73% [3] - The production of liquor in China from January to April 2025 was 1.308 million kiloliters, a year-on-year decrease of 7.8%, indicating a potential eighth consecutive year of declining production if the trend continues [1] Strategic Adjustments - Major liquor companies are adopting more pragmatic and quality-focused growth strategies, with Moutai setting a revenue growth target of around 9% for 2023 [4][6] - Companies like Wuliangye and Luzhou Laojiao emphasize stability and gradual progress in their development goals, reflecting a shift from rapid growth to high-quality development [4][6] Market and Channel Strategies - Companies are focusing on enhancing channel operation efficiency and quality, with Yanghe implementing product optimization and inventory control measures [8][10] - Luzhou Laojiao is adjusting sales targets and market policies based on consumer behavior, while Gujing Gongjiu is optimizing resource allocation for better effectiveness [10] Product Innovation - The industry is seeing a trend towards low-alcohol products, with Luzhou Laojiao's 38-degree Guojiao 1573 achieving over 10 billion in revenue [18][20] - The low-alcohol market is projected to grow significantly, with a compound annual growth rate of around 30% from 2021 to 2024, indicating a promising opportunity for smaller enterprises [20][21] Youth Engagement - The liquor industry recognizes the importance of engaging younger consumers, with companies like Wuliangye and Fenjiu launching targeted products and marketing strategies to attract this demographic [14][16] - The younger consumer segment (ages 25-40) accounted for 38% of liquor consumers in the first half of 2023, highlighting the need for brands to adapt to changing preferences [14] Conclusion - The liquor industry is undergoing a significant transformation, moving from rapid expansion to a focus on value creation and quality development, with both large and small enterprises needing to adapt to these changes to thrive in the evolving market landscape [21]

Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 36.011 billion yuan for 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 12.79%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 12.243 billion yuan, up 17.29% year-on-year [1] - For Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 16.523 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 7.72%, and a net profit of 6.648 billion yuan, which is a 6.15% increase year-on-year [1] Revenue Breakdown - In 2024, the revenue from mid-to-high-end liquor and other liquor categories was 26.532 billion yuan and 9.342 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth of 14.35% and 9.40% [1] - Revenue from the domestic market reached 13.500 billion yuan, while the revenue from the external market was 22.374 billion yuan, showing year-on-year increases of 11.72% and 13.81% respectively [1] - The number of distributors increased significantly, with 835 in the domestic market and 3,718 in the external market, net additions of 15 and 598 respectively compared to the end of 2023 [1] Profitability and Cost Structure - The company's gross margin for 2024 was 76.20%, an increase of 0.90 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to product mix improvements [2] - The expense ratios for sales, management, R&D, and finance were 10.35%, 4.02%, 0.41%, and -0.03% respectively, with slight increases year-on-year [2] - The net profit margin for 2024 was 34.00%, up 1.31 percentage points year-on-year, indicating improved profitability [2] Growth Potential and Market Strategy - The company demonstrated strong operational resilience with double-digit growth in revenue and net profit in 2024, and positive growth in Q1 2025, reflecting strong brand equity and growth momentum [3] - The product strategy focuses on enhancing the "Qinghua" series, strengthening mid-tier products, and maintaining the market position of "Guangping" liquor [3] - The company is expanding its market presence, particularly in southern regions, by targeting county-level markets and focusing on core distributors to increase terminal numbers [3] Investment Outlook - Based on the operational performance in 2024 and Q1 2025, profit forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are adjusted to 13.63 billion yuan, 15.11 billion yuan, and 16.67 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 11.4%, 10.8%, and 10.4% [3] - The current stock price corresponds to price-to-earnings ratios of 17, 16, and 14 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 [3]

the f " erle 11:2 th EH a 2017 出品｜搜狐财经 公司未来增长目标、产品布局及动销情况、全国化和年轻化战略等成为投资者关注重点。 汾酒副总经理、总会计师王怀表示，公司将积极面对行业调整周期，坚持稳中求进的工作总基调，继续保持稳健增长态势。 当被问及中高价酒增长的核心驱动因素，汾酒董事会秘书许志峰解释称，主要系青花汾酒系列占比提升，带动整体结构优化。 端午临近，王怀透露，公司将在渠道与终端做好充足的产品储备，并通过"汾享礼遇"做好渠道促销。 2025年坚持稳中求进 跻身白酒营收前三之后，山西汾酒的增长目标成为投资者关注的焦点话题。 2024年，山西汾酒则凭借12.79%的增速，实现营收360.11亿元，夺得白酒探花之位，开启"茅五汾时代"。 对此，有投资者提问称：市场都说"白酒老三"的位置不好坐，公司2025年的增长目标是怎样的？ 作者｜饶婷 编辑｜李文贤 5月20日，山西汾酒在线上召开2024年年报业绩说明会。 2024年，汾酒中高价酒类实现营收265.32亿元，同比增长14.35%；毛利率为84.45%，同比增加0.36个百分点。 据介绍，中高价酒类指每升130元及以上产品，包括 ...

在白酒行业整体承压的背景下，山西汾酒以营收净利双增的业绩表现，成为2024年少数实现双位数增长的酒 企。4月30日发布的年报显示，公司全年营收达360.1亿元，同比增长12.8%，归母净利润122.4亿元，同比增长 17.3%，营收规模稳居行业前三。面对行业深度调整期、动销承压、业绩下滑等普遍难题，汾酒通过"复兴纲 领"战略引领，在产品矩阵优化与市场扩张方面取得关键突破。 业内人士分析指出，汾酒近年通过品牌升级、渠道改革、文化赋能等系统性变革，构建了穿越周期的核心竞争 力。这种结构性优势在行业调整期尤为凸显，成为支撑企业韧性增长的关键要素。 双百亿大单品驱动，青花和玻汾双线并进 虽然2024年白酒行业整体表现不佳，但2024年汾酒依然保持着高质量增长的趋势，核心数据亮点颇多。 财报显示，2024年汾酒产销率95.96%，生产量、销售量、库存量均保持正向增长，供应链管理效率显著提 升。 考虑到2024年下半年，受到外部环境等因素影响，国内酒水消费市场恢复缓慢，包括汾酒在内的头部白酒企业 大多采取了控货稳价策略，而汾酒依旧能够保持双位数增长，印证了渠道健康度和消费端的高认可度。 从产品上看，汾酒的高端化进程也未被 ...

保持稳健增长态势,规模跃居行业第三 2024 年度和 2025Q1 业绩点评 2025 年 04月 30 日 核心观点 主要财务指标预测 | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 36010.99 | 39328.45 | 43202.18 | 46878.90 | | 收入增长率% | 12.79 | 9.21 | 9.85 | 8.51 | | 归母净利润(百万元) | 12242.88 | 13104.64 | 14532.14 | 15822.83 | | 利润增速% | 17.29 | 7.04 | 10.89 | 8.88 | | 毛利率% | 76.20 | 76.84 | 77.65 | 78.06 | | 摊薄 EPS(元) | 10.04 | 10.74 | 11.91 | 12.97 | | PE | 20.34 | 19.00 | 17.13 | 15.74 | | PB | 7.16 | 5.55 | 4.19 | 3.31 | 公司点评报告 · 食品饮料行业 资 ...