证券研究报告 山西汾酒 (600809 CH) 延续稳健表现，全国布局展开 2025 年 8 月 29 日│中国内地 饮料 | 公司发布 2025 年半年报，25H1 总营收/归母净利/扣非净利 239.6/85.1/85.2 | | --- | | 亿，同比 +5.4%/+1.1%/+1.3% ； 25Q2 总营收 / 归母净利 / 扣非净利 | | 74.4/18.6/18.6 亿，同比+0.4%/-13.5%/-13.4%。24 年公司圆满完成汾酒复 | | 兴计划的第一阶段，25 年是公司汾酒复兴纲领第二阶段，公司定调"稳健"， | | 上半年也顺利实现稳健增长，为未来长期发展打下坚实基础。展望全年，产 | | 品端公司将坚持四轮驱动；渠道端优化经销商考核结构；市场端在稳固基地 | | 市场基础上，发力全国化市场扩张，经营向上趋势不改。维持"买入"。 | 汾酒稳健增长，全国布局展开 1）产品结构：25H1 汾酒/其他酒类营收 233.9/4.8 亿（同比+5.8%/-10.5%）， 25Q2 营收同比变化+0.6%/-3.5%；上半年汾酒占营收比重同比+0.4pct 至 98.0%。公司积极打造全方位 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating to multiple companies in the consumer staples sector, including Moutai, Wuliangye, Luzhou Laojiao, and others, indicating a positive outlook for these stocks [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights a general decline in wholesale prices across most categories of consumer staples, particularly in the baijiu segment, with significant price drops noted for Moutai and Wuliangye [3][32]. - It emphasizes the structural opportunities arising from policy catalysis in the consumer staples sector, suggesting that investors should focus on these potential growth areas [3]. Summary by Sections Price Trends - Recent wholesale prices for Moutai show a decrease, with Feitian Moutai (case) priced at 1845 yuan, down 70 yuan from the previous month, and a year-to-date decline of 395 yuan [32]. - Wuliangye's eighth-generation price remains stable at 920 yuan, with no change since the beginning of the year [32]. - The report notes that the prices of various baijiu brands have shown a downward trend, with year-on-year declines for many products [4][32]. Discount Trends - Discounts on mass-market consumer goods have widened, particularly for liquid milk, soft drinks, infant formula, seasonings, and beer, indicating a shift in consumer purchasing behavior [19][30]. - The average discount rate for liquid milk decreased from 79.1% to 74.8%, while soft drinks saw a drop from 91.8% to 88.3% [19][30]. - The report provides a detailed overview of discount rates across various categories, showing a general trend of increasing discounts in the consumer staples market [20][21].

Group 1 - The overall sentiment in the food and beverage sector improved, but there was significant structural differentiation, with the Shenwan Food and Beverage Index rising by 0.74%, underperforming the CSI 300 Index by 0.95 percentage points, ranking 26th among 31 Shenwan primary industries [1] - Within the sub-sectors, pre-processed foods (+1.97%) and health products (+1.88%) performed well, while the liquor, beer, and mass-market products showed varied trends [1] Group 2 - The liquor sector is supported by favorable infrastructure policies, but public funds reduced their allocation to liquor in Q2 due to a contraction in consumption scenarios [2] - Leading liquor companies are enhancing brand and technological barriers to cope with intensified industry competition, with Guizhou Moutai establishing a research institute for innovation and Shanxi Fenjiu launching an upgraded version of its product to solidify its high-end market position [2] - High-end liquor prices have stabilized and rebounded, with the price of 2024 Feitian Moutai increasing by 10 yuan to 1900 yuan, and the original box price rising to 1960 yuan [2] Group 3 - The beer sector is currently facing short-term demand pressure due to the impact of delivery platform subsidies, leading to a slight year-on-year decline in production [3] - However, inventory reduction is ongoing, with leading companies' channel inventories at historical lows, and the sector's valuation has dropped to a five-year low [3] - Cost benefits are gradually materializing, with a year-on-year decline in imported barley prices, and the industry is expected to see profit elasticity due to product structure upgrades [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Increase" rating for the food and beverage industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector [5]. Core Views - The liquor industry is strengthening its internal capabilities, with companies focusing on management, product, and channel improvements. The industry is currently at a low valuation and is expected to stabilize as sales pressure eases [2]. - In the beer and beverage sector, East Peak Beverage reported impressive mid-year results, while the industry continues to show high growth potential despite intense competition [3]. - The report highlights the ongoing transformation in product selection at Sam's Club, emphasizing operational efficiency through local supply chain adjustments [4]. Summary by Sections Liquor Industry - The liquor sector is in a phase of continuous improvement, with major companies like Guizhou Moutai and Shanxi Fenjiu enhancing their management and product offerings. The industry is currently experiencing a seasonal downturn, but valuations are low, suggesting potential for recovery [2]. Beer and Beverage Sector - The beer segment is advised to focus on high-growth products and structural performance, with companies like Yanjing Beer and Zhujiang Beer being highlighted. East Peak Beverage's revenue for the first half of 2025 reached 10.737 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 36.37% [3]. Food Sector - Sam's Club is undergoing a significant product selection transformation, with a shift towards national best-selling items to improve operational efficiency. The report notes that the low-temperature dairy market is performing better than the ambient temperature segment [4][7].