【冠通期货研究报告】 油粕日报：油强粕弱 发布日期：2026 年 2 月 24 日 豆粕：据巴西农业部下属的国家商品供应公司 CONAB，截至 2 月 21 日，巴 西大豆收割率为 32.3%，上周为 24.7%，去年同期为 36.4%，五年均值为 36.6%。 马托格罗索州农业经济研究所（IMEA）表示，截至 2 月 20 日，该州 2025/26 年 度大豆收割进度已达种植面积的 65.75%，高于一周前的 51.01%，略低于去年同 期的 66.16%，但是仍高于过去五年平均进度 57.25%。一周前该州大豆收获进度 还领先去年同期水平，但是降雨阻碍了田间作业。IMEA 预测 2025/26 年度该州 大豆产量为 5050 万吨，比上年的创纪录产量降低 0.74%。 节假期外盘美豆出现明显上涨，但是压榨利润更多的倾向于美豆油，豆粕仍 然保持震荡。巴西大豆收割进度因为降水延误，但是这种延续并未带来实际的减 产效应，大豆供应仍然显得充足，后续豆粕需要关注国内进口大豆到港以及元宵 节后的抛储计划，近月进口大豆供应将决定近月行情走势。 ZZ0022441 McDonald Pelz、金十期货网站。 美豆油受到美 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The global demand growth helps the US soybean export prospects this year, and the US Soybean Export Council is committed to expanding the global market access for US soybeans [2] - The protein meal market: Night trading of soybean and rapeseed meal was weak. The US EPA will soon release final regulations on biofuels, including the small refinery exemption policy, which boosts demand expectations, but the harvest pressure in Brazil has led to a decline in US soybean futures prices. In the domestic market, the high inventory of soybean meal and the expectation of sufficient supply in the distant months continue to put pressure on prices [2] - The oil market: Night trading of oils closed higher. Malaysia's palm oil exports were strong in January, production decreased month - on - month, and the reduction of tariffs improved future export expectations. The palm oil market is in a de - stocking cycle, which supports palm oil prices. However, due to the sharp decline in crude oil prices, the oil market is expected to fluctuate and adjust in the short term [2] 3. Summary According to the Catalog Futures Market Domestic Futures - **Prices and Changes**: The previous closing prices of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil were 8086, 9094, and 9215 respectively, with changes of - 6, + 80, and + 79, and percentage changes of - 0.07%, + 0.89%, and - 3.15%. The previous closing prices of soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and peanuts were 2727, 2362, and 8844 respectively, with changes of - 23, - 21, and + 26, and percentage changes of - 0.84%, - 0.88%, and + 0.29% [1] - **Spreads**: The current spreads of Y9 - 1, P9 - 1, and OI9 - 1 are 40, 112, and 68 respectively, compared with the previous values of 56, 134, and 90. The current spreads of Y - P09, OI - Y09, and OI - P09 are - 946, 1057, and 111 respectively, compared with the previous values of - 1000, 971, and - 29. The current spreads of M9 - 1, RM9 - 1 are - 48 and 68 respectively, compared with the previous values of - 45 and 57. The current spread of M - RM09 is 559, compared with the previous value of 579. The current ratios of M/RM09, Y/M09 are 1.24 and 2.87 respectively, and Y - M09 is currently 5349, compared with the previous value of 5406 [1] International Futures - **Prices and Changes**: The previous closing prices of BMD palm oil (in ringgit per ton), CBOT soybeans (in cents per bushel), CBOT US soybean oil (in cents per pound), and CBOT US soybean meal (in dollars per ton) were 4180, 1067, 54.52, and 292 respectively, with changes of - 40.0, + 6.8, + 1.3, and - 2.2, and percentage changes of - 0.95%, + 0.64%, + 2.40%, and - 0.75% [1] Spot Market Domestic Spot Prices and Changes - **Oils**: The current spot prices of Tianjin and Guangzhou first - grade soybean oil are 8470 and 8570 respectively, with percentage changes of - 0.24% and - 0.35%. The current spot prices of Zhangjiagang and Guangzhou 24° palm oil are 9160, with a percentage change of 1.10%. The current spot prices of Zhangjiagang and Fangchenggang third - grade rapeseed oil are 9890 and 9860 respectively, with a percentage change of - 0.20% [1] - **Meals and Nuts**: The current spot prices of Nantong and Dongguan soybean meal are 3030 and 3090 respectively, with percentage changes of - 0.66% and - 0.96%. The current spot prices of Nantong and Dongguan rapeseed meal are 2520 and 2460 respectively, with percentage changes of - 0.79% and - 0.81%. The current spot prices of Linyi and Anyang peanuts are 7150 and 7300 respectively, with no change [1] Spot Basis - For oils, the spot basis of Tianjin and Guangzhou first - grade soybean oil is 384 and 484 respectively, that of Zhangjiagang and Guangzhou 24° palm oil is 66, and that of Zhangjiagang and Fangchenggang third - grade rapeseed oil is 675 and 645 respectively. For meals, the spot basis of Nantong and Dongguan soybean meal is 303 and 363 respectively, and that of Nantong and Dongguan rapeseed meal is 271 and 211 respectively. The spot basis of Linyi and Anyang peanuts is - 880 and - 730 respectively [1] Spot Spreads - The current spot spread between Guangzhou first - grade soybean oil and 24° palm oil is - 460, the spread between Zhangjiagang third - grade rapeseed oil and first - grade soybean oil is 1340, and the spread between Dongguan soybean meal and rapeseed meal is 630, compared with the previous values of - 460, 1270, and 600 respectively [1] Import, Crushing Profit, and Warehouse Receipts - **Import and Crushing Profit**: The current import and crushing profits of near - month Malaysian palm oil, near - month US Gulf soybeans, near - month Brazilian soybeans, near - month US West soybeans, near - month Canadian crude rapeseed oil, and near - month Canadian rapeseed are - 377, - 256, 0, - 224, 223, and 465 respectively, compared with the previous values of - 469, - 253, 4, - 217, 133, and 399 respectively [1] - **Warehouse Receipts**: The current warehouse receipts of soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed oil, soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and peanuts are 26,460, 450, 625, 33,428, 0, and 0 respectively. The previous values of soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed oil, soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and peanuts were 26,460, 0, 625, 33,428, 0, and 0 respectively [1] Industry Information - The US Soybean Export Council CEO said global demand growth helps the US soybean export prospects this year, and the council is committed to expanding the global market access for US soybeans [2] - According to SPPOMA data, from January 1 - 31, 2026, the yield per unit of Malaysian palm oil decreased by 13.78% month - on - month compared with the same period of last month, the oil extraction rate increased by 0.16% month - on - month, and the production decreased by 13.08% month - on - month [2] - According to CONAB data, as of January 31, the soybean harvest rate in Brazil was 11.4%, compared with 6.6% last week, 8% in the same period last year, and a five - year average of 11.8% [2] - According to MPOA data, the estimated production of Malaysian palm oil from January 1 - 20 decreased by 14.43%. High - frequency data showed that the export volume of Malaysian palm oil from January 1 - 25 increased by 7.97% - 9.97% month - on - month [2] - The Indonesian President announced a plan to ban the export of used cooking oil and palm waste [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The export sales of US soybeans, soybean meal, and soybean oil are expected to increase, with different expected net increases in different fiscal years [1]. - Malaysia's palm oil exports from August 1 - 25, 2025, increased by 36.41% compared to the same period last month [1]. - The average estimated yield of Canadian rapeseed is 20.3 million tons, with a forecast range of 19 - 21.2 million tons [1]. - Australia's rapeseed yield this year is expected to be between 5.8 - 7.2 million tons [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Overnight Market Information - **US Exports**: Before the USDA's weekly export sales report (scheduled for 20:30 Beijing time on Thursday), a survey of industry analysts showed that as of the week ending August 21, US soybean export sales are expected to net increase by 25 - 105 tons, with a net decrease of 20 tons to a net increase of 5 tons in the 2024 - 2025 fiscal year and a net increase of 45 - 100 tons in the 2025 - 2026 fiscal year. US soybean meal export sales are expected to net increase by 12.5 - 45 tons, with 2.5 - 15 tons in the 2024 - 2025 fiscal year and 10 - 30 tons in the 2025 - 2026 fiscal year. US soybean oil export sales are expected to net increase by 0 - 1.4 tons, with 0 - 0.8 tons in the 2024 - 2025 fiscal year and 0 - 0.6 tons in the 2025 - 2026 fiscal year [1]. - **Malaysia's Palm Oil Exports**: According to SGS, Malaysia's palm oil product exports from August 1 - 25, 2025, were 933,437 tons, a 36.41% increase from 684,308 tons in the same period last month [1]. - **Canadian Rapeseed Yield**: Canada's Statistics Bureau plans to release the estimated yield of major farm crops as of the end of July 2025 at 20:30 Beijing time on Thursday. Based on the forecasts of 6 traders and analysts, the average estimated yield of rapeseed is 20.3 million tons, with a range of 19 - 21.2 million tons, compared to 19.5 million tons reported by the Statistics Bureau in August last year [1]. - **Australian Rapeseed Yield**: Australia's ABARES estimates that the country's rapeseed yield this year will be between 5.8 - 7.2 million tons, compared to 6.1 million tons last year and a 10 - year average of 4.8 million tons [1]. Spot Prices - The spot prices of soybean meal in Jiangsu, rapeseed meal in Guangdong, soybean oil in Jiangsu, palm oil in Guangzhou, and rapeseed oil in Jiangsu from August 21 - 27, 2025, are provided [1].

Core Insights - Palm oil futures prices have declined for two consecutive days, indicating a bearish trend in the market [1] - Malaysia's palm oil inventory is expected to decrease for the first time in four months, which could impact supply dynamics [1] - The upcoming supply and demand report may serve as a potential catalyst for market recovery [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article discusses the end of a six-week rising trend in Malaysian palm oil futures, driven by declining production and strong demand, raising questions about the potential for price rebound [1] Group 2 - The article highlights the factors contributing to the recent price trends, including a decrease in palm oil production and robust demand, which have influenced market dynamics [1] - It poses questions regarding the future supply and demand landscape for Malaysian palm oil, indicating uncertainty in price movements [1]

Core Viewpoint - The drought situation in the U.S. Midwest is gradually easing, which is beneficial for the growth of new season crops, although there are concerns about warm and dry weather affecting recently planted soybeans [1] Group 1: U.S. Soybean Market - As of the week ending May 29, U.S. old crop soybean export sales were 194,300 tons, close to the lower end of market expectations [1] - New crop sales were only 3,500 tons, indicating a lack of significant overseas demand [1] - The market is optimistic about U.S.-China trade relations, which could lead to increased imports of U.S. agricultural products, alleviating soybean supply concerns [1] Group 2: Argentine Soybean Harvest - Argentina has completed 89% of its soybean harvest, an increase of 4% from the previous week [1] - The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange maintains its production forecast at 50 million tons, slightly above the USDA's estimate of 49 million tons [1] Group 3: Malaysian Palm Oil Production - Malaysian palm oil production increased by 3.07% month-on-month from May 1 to 31, with peninsula production up by 4.05% and East Malaysia production up by 1.90% [1] - April export volume rose by 24.6%, while March production increased by 17.66% [1] Group 4: Futures Market Trends - On Thursday, CBOT soybean futures rose moderately, closing about 0.5% higher, reaching a one-week high due to optimism in U.S.-China trade relations [1] - CBOT soybean oil futures experienced mixed results, closing about 0.3% lower due to weak export sales [1] - Domestic and international palm oil futures are experiencing narrow fluctuations due to increased production, while crude oil prices stabilize, creating a favorable atmosphere for oilseeds [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that palm oil futures prices are declining, and Malaysia's palm oil inventory is expected to rise for the third consecutive month in May, suggesting a shift in market supply and demand dynamics [1] Group 2 - The article highlights the anticipated increase in Malaysia's palm oil inventory, which may impact future pricing and market conditions [1] - It raises questions about how the supply-demand balance will evolve and what implications this may have for price trends in the palm oil market [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints The report presents a comprehensive overview of the overnight market trends, important macro - economic news, and developments in various financial and commodity sectors, including futures, stocks, bonds, and foreign exchange. It also provides upcoming economic data releases and events. Summary by Directory Overnight Night - Market Trends - Domestic futures主力合约涨跌互现，烧碱、纸浆等涨超0.4%，SC原油、氧化铝等跌超1% [2] - International precious metal futures普遍收跌，COMEX黄金期货跌0.56%，COMEX白银期货跌1.39% [3] - International oil prices走弱，美油主力合约收跌1.23%，布伦特原油主力合约跌1.29% [4] - London basic metals收盘多数下跌，LME期锡、期镍、期铜均有不同程度跌幅 [5] - International agricultural product futures涨跌不一，美大豆、美玉米等有涨有跌 [6] Important Information Macro - Information - China's central bank will conduct 500 billion yuan of MLF operations on May 23, 2025 [9] - CFFEX is promoting the dual functions of financial futures [9] - SHFE will improve its product system and promote the R & D and listing of new varieties [9] - US initial jobless claims for the week ending May 17 were 227,000, a four - week low [10] - Iran vows a "devastating response" to any Israeli attack [11] - Trump's tax reform bill passed the House and is sent to the Senate, and the Senate passed a bill to end California's ban on fuel - powered vehicles [12] - Fed Governor Waller expects a rate cut in the second half of 2025 if tariffs decline [13] Energy and Chemical Futures - OPEC + is discussing a possible large - scale production increase in July [16] - China's urea production increased, and domestic soda ash inventory decreased [16] - Singapore's fuel oil, light distillate, and middle distillate inventories all rose [16] - SHFE adjusted the trading fees of natural rubber futures RU2509 contract [17] - US natural gas inventory increased, with a year - on - year decrease of 12.3% [17] - The US was not persuaded to lower the oil price cap at the G7 meeting [18] Metal Futures - Freeport Indonesia's Manyar smelter will resume production in June and reach full capacity in December [20] - CBA expects gold prices to reach $3,750 per ounce in Q4 due to rising safe - haven demand and a weakening dollar [22] - SHFE adjusted the trading fees of alumina futures AO2509 contract [22] - The global lead market had a supply shortage in March 2025 [22] Black - Series Futures - Rebar production increased, factory inventory rose, social inventory decreased, and apparent demand declined [24] - China's cumulative power generation installed capacity increased by 15.9% year - on - year as of the end of April [24] - Steel social inventory in 21 cities decreased in mid - May, with a narrowing decline [24] - Global crude steel production in April 2025 decreased by 0.3% year - on - year [25] - The average profit per ton of coke in independent coking plants varied by region [26] Agricultural Product Futures - Malaysia's palm oil production and exports are expected to increase in May [28] - Nigeria's palm oil prices may rise due to Indonesia's export tax increase [28] - Market rumors suggest the US government may grant small refinery exemptions, reducing biodiesel production and oil consumption [29] - IGC maintains the 2025/26 global soybean production forecast, with increased trade and consumption [29] - US soybean export net sales data for different periods [30] - Canada's rapeseed exports increased, and commercial inventory was reported [30] - The proportion of US soybean and corn planting areas affected by drought [30] - US cotton ON - call unpriced orders data [31] - Argentina's soybean sales accelerated in the first two weeks of May [31] Financial Market Finance - The CSRC will optimize the listing environment for technology companies and implement a more flexible IPO adjustment mechanism [33] - A - shares closed lower on Thursday, with some sectors rising and others falling [35] - Hong Kong stocks declined, but two new stocks had a strong performance in the dark - market trading [35] - CATL's H - shares will be included in MSCI indices [36] - Lenovo Group's Q4 revenue and profit increased [36] Industry - China's cumulative power generation installed capacity increased, with significant growth in solar and wind power [37] - The Cyberspace Administration of China will launch a special campaign to rectify online "black - mouth" against enterprises [37] - The world's first "Intelligent Grading of Humanoid Robots" standard was released [39] - Shanghai introduced measures to promote the high - quality development of the technology service industry [39] - A group standard for all - solid - state batteries was released [39] - TOP100 real - estate enterprises' land reserves decreased in 2024 [39] - China's narrow - sense passenger car retail sales are expected to increase in May [40] - The "JD Takeaway" platform was interviewed by the market supervision department [40] Overseas - Fed Governor Waller suggests a possible rate cut in the second half of 2025 if tariffs stabilize [41] - US manufacturing and service PMI data in May [43] - Harvard University's international student enrollment qualification was revoked [43] - US existing - home sales decreased in April, with a rising median price [43] - US initial jobless claims decreased to a four - week low [43] - Eurozone's May PMI data, with a decline in the composite PMI [44] - European Central Bank's meeting minutes and market expectations for a rate cut [44] - Japan's core machinery orders increased significantly in March [44] - Thailand's court ruled that Yingluck Shinawatra should pay compensation [46] International Stocks - US stocks closed mixed, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq recording three - day losses [47] - European stocks closed lower due to concerns about bond yields and tax reform [47] - Berkshire Hathaway's Greg Abel met with Japanese trading company executives [48] - Kraken plans to allow non - US customers to trade stocks in token form [48] Commodity - International precious metal futures declined, affected by the US fiscal deficit, inflation, and the dollar [50] - International oil prices weakened, pressured by OPEC + production increase expectations and US inventory [50] - London basic metals mostly fell, with supply - chain changes [50] - OPEC + is discussing a production increase in July [51] - SHFE adjusted the trading fees of alumina and natural rubber futures contracts [51] Bond - China's bond market continued to fluctuate, with the central bank conducting reverse - repurchase operations [52] - A member of the Bank of Japan's council believes no intervention in the bond market is necessary [54] - US Treasury yields declined across the board [54] - European bond yields showed mixed trends [54] Foreign Exchange - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar rose, and the central parity rate was adjusted up [55] - The RMB ranked fifth in global payment currency in April [55] - Japan's foreign - exchange official stated that exchange rates should be determined by the market [55] - The US dollar index rose, and most non - US currencies fell [57] Upcoming Economic Data and Events - Economic data release schedule including UK consumer confidence, Japan's CPI, etc. [59] - Event schedule including Trump's dinner invitation, central bank operations, and corporate earnings reports [61]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The USDA will release its weekly export sales report at 20:30 Beijing time on Thursday. A survey of industry analysts shows that as of the week ending May 15, US soybean export sales are expected to increase by 190,000 to 700,000 tons, with the current marketing year expected to increase by 100,000 to 300,000 tons and the next marketing year by 90,000 to 400,000 tons [1] - US soybean meal export sales are expected to increase by 100,000 to 450,000 tons, with the current marketing year expected to increase by 100,000 to 400,000 tons and the next marketing year by 0 to 50,000 tons [1] - US soybean oil export sales are expected to increase by 0 to 32,000 tons, with the current marketing year expected to increase by 0 to 22,000 tons and the next marketing year by 0 to 10,000 tons [1] - Data from the SPPOMA shows that from May 1 - 20, 2025, Malaysian palm oil production increased by 3.72% month - on - month, fresh fruit bunch yield increased by 1.72%, and oil extraction rate increased by 0.38% [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Spot Prices - Spot prices of various products from May 15 - 21, 2025 are presented, including soybean meal in Jiangsu, rapeseed meal in Guangdong, soybean oil in Jiangsu, palm oil in Guangzhou, and rapeseed oil in Jiangsu [2] 3.2 Protein Meal Basis and Oil Basis - No specific data provided, only the topics are mentioned [3] 3.3 Oil and Oilseed Futures Price Spreads - Only the topic is mentioned, no specific data provided [5]

Group 1 - The core issue is the rising prices of Malaysian palm oil despite an increase in inventory, raising questions about whether this is a bear trap or a precursor to a bull market [1] Group 2 - The article highlights the paradox of increasing palm oil prices amidst growing stock levels, suggesting potential market dynamics at play [1] - It raises the possibility of market speculation influencing prices, indicating a complex relationship between supply and demand [1] - The discussion points towards the need for further analysis to understand the underlying factors driving the price movements in the palm oil market [1]