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Core Insights - Global gold demand increased by 3% year-on-year to 1249 tons in Q2 2025, with a value surge of 45% to $132 billion, marking a historical high [1] - The growth was primarily driven by investment demand, central bank purchases, regional market differentiation, and structural changes in consumption trends [2] Investment Demand: Core Growth Engine - Gold ETFs and similar products were the main drivers of demand growth, with a net inflow of 170 tons in Q2 2025, contrasting with slight outflows in the same period of 2024 [3] - Cumulative inflows for the first half of the year reached 397 tons, the highest since 2020, reflecting institutional investors' hedging against geopolitical risks and economic uncertainties [3] - In China, gold ETF inflows amounted to 464 billion RMB (approximately $65 billion), with holdings increasing to 200 tons and assets under management (AUM) surging 116% year-on-year to 152.5 billion RMB [3] - Demand for gold bars and coins grew by 11% year-on-year to 307 tons, with Chinese investors leading globally with a demand of 115 tons, a 44% increase year-on-year [3] Central Bank Purchases: Long-term Support - Global central banks net purchased 166 tons of gold in Q2 2025, remaining at historically high levels, 41% above the average from 2010-2021 [6] - A survey indicated that 95% of central banks expect to continue increasing gold holdings in the next 12 months, highlighting a trend towards de-dollarization [6] - The People's Bank of China added 6 tons in Q2, totaling 19 tons for the first half of the year, with official reserves reaching 2299 tons, accounting for 6.7% of foreign reserves [6] Consumption Demand: Structural Changes - Global gold jewelry demand fell by 14% year-on-year to 341 tons, nearing 2020 pandemic lows, with China's demand dropping 20% year-on-year to 69 tons, the weakest Q2 since 2007 [7] - Despite the decline, high-end jewelry demand remained resilient, while the mass market shifted towards lighter, more innovative designs, leading to a 21% increase in consumption value to $36 billion [7] - India's demand decreased by 17% year-on-year, although pre-wedding season purchases and trade-in policies mitigated some of the decline [8] Price and Supply: Market Balance Amid High Prices - The average gold price in Q2 reached $3280.35 per ounce, a 40% increase year-on-year, marking a historical high [12] - In China, the average physical gold price surpassed 1000 RMB per gram, with retail prices fluctuating between 984-1018 RMB per gram [13] - Gold mine production increased by 3% year-on-year to 909 tons, a record high for the quarter, while recycled gold supply grew by only 4%, indicating a reluctance among holders to sell [14] - Overall, gold prices rose by 26% in the first half of the year, outperforming most mainstream assets [15] Regional Market: Differentiation and Resilience - The Chinese market exhibited strong investment but weak consumption, with total retail gold demand reaching 245 tons, a 28% increase year-on-year, despite weak jewelry demand [16] - In India, demand for gold bars and coins rose to 46 tons, but jewelry consumption fell by 17% due to price-sensitive consumers reducing purchases [17] - European demand doubled due to post-energy crisis risk aversion, while U.S. demand for bars and coins fell to 9 tons due to a high-interest rate environment [17] - The growth in gold demand underscores its dual value as a safe-haven asset and a long-term allocation tool [17] Future Outlook - Geopolitical developments, monetary policy trajectories, and changes in consumer behavior will be key variables influencing the gold market [19]

Group 1: Market Dynamics - The international spot gold price surged by 1.5% on July 21, 2025, reaching a historic high of $3,400 per ounce, followed by a sharp decline to $3,386 on July 22, indicating a complex market dynamic [1] - Domestic gold jewelry brands saw a price increase of 7-10 yuan per gram, with some stores experiencing a 300% surge in sales on the day of the price spike [1] - As of July 23, the price of gold jewelry from brands like Chow Sang Sang and Lao Feng Xiang showed a mixed trend, reflecting ongoing market volatility [1] Group 2: Demand Drivers - Global physical gold demand showed significant divergence in Q2 2025, with U.S. investors cashing out due to high uncertainty over tariff policies, while Asian markets experienced a 12% increase in demand, particularly a fourfold increase in China's gold ETF holdings [3][4] - The interplay of monetary policy, geopolitical risk, and investment structure transformation is driving the gold market, with central banks globally expected to continue increasing gold reserves [3][4] - The U.S. Federal Reserve's anticipated interest rate cuts and China's central bank's record gold reserves of 73.9 million ounces are key factors supporting gold prices [3] Group 3: Compliance and Technology in Trading - The value of compliance platforms has increased, with Hong Kong's gold exchange reporting a 45% year-on-year growth in trading volume in H1 2025, and AA-class members holding over 70% market share [5] - Strict regulatory requirements for AA-class licenses ensure transaction transparency, while technological advancements allow for rapid market response and risk management [5] - In extreme market conditions, compliant platforms demonstrated superior performance in managing client positions, reducing liquidation risks significantly [5] Group 4: Future of Physical Gold Investment - The gold market is entering a "new normal" characterized by persistent geopolitical risks, long-term central bank purchases, and diversified investment demand [6] - Investors are encouraged to utilize compliant platforms for strategic trading and to create a diversified portfolio that includes both physical gold and derivatives [6] - A significant majority of institutional investors plan to increase their gold allocations in the next two years, potentially reshaping market pricing logic [6]

Core Insights - The European Central Bank (ECB) warns of unprecedented investor skepticism towards U.S. assets, highlighting potential systemic risks in the global financial system due to various factors including Trump's tariff policies and high asset valuations [1] - The ECB's semi-annual Financial Stability Assessment indicates a fundamental shift in investor behavior, moving away from traditional safe-haven assets like the U.S. dollar and Treasury bonds, which could lead to significant changes in global capital flows [1][3] - The ECB emphasizes that the unpredictability of U.S. policies has led to higher risk premiums demanded by investors for U.S. assets, potentially undermining confidence in the dollar as a global reserve currency [1][3] Asset Valuation and Market Vulnerability - Despite some easing of tariff threats, asset valuations remain excessively high, contributing to significant market vulnerability and the potential for extreme volatility, particularly in U.S. tech stocks [2] - The ECB warns that investors may be underestimating the likelihood and impact of adverse scenarios, exacerbated by rising uncertainty affecting economic outlooks in Europe [3] Cryptocurrency Risks - The ECB highlights systemic risks posed by cryptocurrencies, particularly stablecoins, due to their rising valuations and increasing ties to traditional finance, which could create large transmission channels for financial instability [4] - Concerns have been raised by policymakers regarding the U.S. support for cryptocurrencies and non-bank financial institutions, with warnings that this could sow the seeds for a future global crisis [4] Gold Market Concerns - The structural vulnerabilities in the gold market, combined with geopolitical risks, pose a significant threat to financial stability in the Eurozone [5] - A report indicates that the Eurozone's exposure to gold derivatives has reached €1 trillion, a 58% increase since November 2024, raising concerns about systemic risks due to opaque trading practices and reliance on leverage [6] Conclusion - The ECB's assessments underscore the interconnectedness of global financial markets and the potential for significant disruptions stemming from U.S. policy changes, high asset valuations, and emerging risks in cryptocurrencies and commodity markets [1][2][4][5][6]

文/曹萌 五一假期临近，资本市场似乎进入了提前放假的行情。就连今年大热的黄金，也已围绕着3300美 元/盎司一线震荡了多日。 过去的一周里，伦敦现货金经历了一轮过山车行情。从大幅上涨到大幅回撤，再到如今"不疼不 痒"的小幅震荡。虽然现在处于冷静期的金价有些无趣，但也让人对后市行情"浮想联翩"。 4月22日，在全球萦绕着对贸易战升级担忧的气氛中，伦敦现货金触摸到了3500美元/盎司的又一历 史新高。但随后便一路下行，不仅当日收跌1.3%，更丢掉了刚刚到手的3400美元/盎司关口。尽管 这波下跌来势汹汹，但国际金价今年以来仍以26%以上的涨幅，坐稳全球大类资产表现最佳的宝 座。 可能按照国际单位计算金价上涨幅度，对于 大众 来说并不直观。 因此，换个角度来看，2024年年 初，北京菜百人头攒动，那时千足金金饰价格不过600元/克左右，而现在已迈入克金千元时代。 伴随金价不留喘息的上涨，你应该会听到身边的朋友这样说："我当时就是买少了。"而无论是真的 投资，还是对金饰情有独钟，涨了，赚了，知足常乐。 金银因其稀缺、可分割等特性自然而然成为了货币的首选材料。但在上世纪70年代，布雷顿森林货 币体系崩塌后，由于美元与黄 ...