Group 1: Report Investment Ratings - Cotton: Neutral to bullish [1] - Sugar: Neutral [4] - Pulp: Neutral [7] Group 2: Core Views - Cotton: The overall pattern of domestic and foreign cotton prices is divided, with a strong domestic and weak foreign situation. In the short - term, ICE US cotton is under pressure, and the demand side of domestic cotton is weakening marginally. In the long - term, cotton prices are expected to be bullish [1] - Sugar: The global sugar market is in a state of surplus. The short - term decline of raw sugar is limited, and the long - term price is not overly pessimistic. Domestic sugar is in a situation of increasing supply and the price is expected to fluctuate and bottom out [3][4] - Pulp: Overseas supply is disturbed, and domestic demand is expected to recover moderately in the short - term. The price will fluctuate and be slightly strong, but the upward height depends on demand and inventory digestion [7] Group 3: Summary by Commodity Cotton - Market News and Key Data: The closing price of cotton 2605 contract was 14,435 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton. The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 15,385 yuan/ton, up 267 yuan/ton. From December 19th to 25th, the US graded and inspected 129,200 tons of 2025/26 cotton, and 82.1% met the ICE cotton delivery requirements [1] - Market Analysis: The domestic and foreign cotton price trends are divided. Internationally, the US cotton inventory pressure increases, and the global textile consumption is weak. Domestically, cotton production increases, and the demand side is marginally weakening [1] - Strategy: Neutral to bullish. In the long - term, cotton prices are expected to rise, but short - term high - level corrections should be vigilant [1] Sugar - Market News and Key Data: The closing price of sugar 2605 contract was 5253 yuan/ton, down 32 yuan/ton. As of December 27, 2025/26, Thailand's cumulative sugar production was 1.2793 million tons, down 15.83% year - on - year [2] - Market Analysis: The global sugar market is in surplus. The short - term decline of raw sugar is limited, and the long - term price is not overly pessimistic. Domestic sugar supply is increasing seasonally, and the import pressure remains high [3][4] - Strategy: Neutral. The domestic sugar price is expected to fluctuate and bottom out [4] Pulp - Market News and Key Data: The closing price of pulp 2605 contract was 5510 yuan/ton, down 120 yuan/ton. The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5590 yuan/ton, unchanged [4] - Market Analysis: Overseas pulp mills have shutdown and maintenance news, and the European demand has improved. The domestic terminal demand is insufficient, and the port inventory is high but showing a downward trend [6] - Strategy: Neutral. The short - term trend is expected to fluctuate and be slightly strong, depending on demand and inventory digestion [7]

农产品日报 | 2025-12-18 持续上涨驱动不足，板块延续震荡 棉花观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘棉花2605合约13925元/吨，较前一日变动-20元/吨，幅度-0.14%。现货方面，3128B棉新疆到 厂价14978元/吨，较前一日变动+10元/吨，现货基差CF05+1053，较前一日变动+30；3128B棉全国均价15144元/吨， 较前一日变动+14元/吨，现货基差CF05+1219，较前一日变动+34。 近期市场资讯，16日2025/26年度印度棉花上市量折皮棉约4.2万吨，包含来自安得拉邦1.6万吨、马哈拉施特拉邦8670 吨及古吉拉特邦5950吨。据悉，16日CCI抛储约7.3万吨，前一日成交量为1972吨。具体来看，S-6竞拍底价稳定在 51500卢比/坎地，折约72.45美分/磅。 市场分析 昨日郑棉期价震荡收跌。国际方面，本月USDA对于全球棉花供需数据调整不大，25/26年度全球棉花产需双减， 期末库存微幅增加。美棉产量继续小幅调增，经过两个月的调整后美棉累库压力明显加大。当前北半球新棉集中 上市，阶段性供应压力较大，而全球纺织终端消费仍疲软，短期ICE美棉仍将承压。 ...

| 作者： | 王亮亮 | | --- | --- | | 从业资格证号： | F03096306 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0017427 | | 联系方式： | 010-68578697 | | 作者： | 侯芝芳 | | 从业资格证号： | F3042058 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0014216 | | 联系方式： | 010-68578922 | | 作者： | 宋从志 | | 从业资格证号： | F03095512 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0020712 | | 联系方式： | 18001936153 | | 作者： | 辛旋 | | 从业资格证号： | F3064981 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0016876 | | 联系方式： | -- | 投资咨询业务资格：京证监许可【2012】75号 成文时间：2025年12月03日星期三 农产品团队 更多精彩内容请关注方正中期官方微信 期货研究院 养殖油脂产业链日度策略报告 摘要 豆二、豆粕：周三，美盘偏强运行，大商所豆粕及豆二继续震荡调 整。美豆对华出口放缓，CBOT大豆走势疲软。目前我国豆类供应 较为充足，短期上涨驱动预计不足。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - All three industries (cotton, sugar, and pulp) are rated neutral [3][6][8] Core Viewpoints - For cotton, short - term upward space is limited due to factors like potential increase in hedging positions and weak downstream demand, but long - term prospects are optimistic considering low initial inventory and resilient consumption [2][3] - For sugar, the 25/26 global sugar market may be in a bear cycle with an oversupply pattern. Before the end of the year, it is expected to fluctuate, and there may be new lows next year [5][6] - For pulp, the fundamental improvement is insufficient, and the price is likely to continue to oscillate at a low level. Attention should be paid to the actual implementation of peak - season demand in the fourth quarter [7][8] Summary by Industry Cotton Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of the cotton 2601 contract was 13,615 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan/ton (+0.59%) from the previous day [1] - Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 14,627 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan/ton; the national average price was 14,825 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan/ton [1] - Market Information: In the 2025/26 season, the cotton - planting area in Mato Grosso, Brazil is expected to be 1.46 million hectares (21.9 million mu), a year - on - year reduction of 5.7%, while the output is expected to be 2.62 million tons, a slight increase of 2.6% [1] Market Analysis - International: Sino - US negotiations have made substantial progress, but the actual purchase volume of US cotton by China is unclear. The release of key data is postponed, and the short - term upward space of the outer market is limited due to supply pressure and weak export performance [2] - Domestic: The new - year cotton market starts with low inventory, but the supply is supplemented. The purchase price of seed cotton has stabilized and rebounded, but the short - term upward space of cotton prices is limited due to potential hedging positions and weak downstream demand [2] Strategy - A neutral strategy is recommended. In the short term, there is a possibility of a callback, while in the long term, cotton prices can be viewed optimistically [3] Sugar Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of the sugar 2601 contract was 5441 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton (-0.73%) from the previous day [4] - Spot: The spot price of sugar in Kunming, Yunnan was 5660 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton [4] - Market Information: The estimated total sugar production in the 2025/26 season in India (excluding the amount used for ethanol production) is 34.35 million tons, and the net production (after excluding ethanol usage) is 30.95 million tons [4] Market Analysis - Raw sugar: Supply surplus pressure has pushed the price below 15 cents. Although the sugar - making ratio in Brazil has declined in the short term, the long - term rebound momentum is limited due to overall northern hemisphere production increases [5] - Zhengzhou sugar: The impact of typhoons has subsided, and there is a strong expectation of domestic sugar production increase. However, the price has fallen near the production cost line, and the downward space is limited due to stricter syrup control policies [5] Strategy - A neutral strategy is recommended. It is expected to fluctuate before the end of the year, and there may be new lows next year [6] Pulp Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of the pulp 2601 contract was 5360 yuan/ton, up 72 yuan/ton (+1.36%) from the previous day [6] - Spot: The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Russian softwood pulp was 5045 yuan/ton, unchanged [6] - Market Information: The spot price of imported wood pulp was basically stable, with only minor adjustments [6] Market Analysis - Supply: Overseas pulp mills have announced price increases, production cuts, and conversion plans, but the actual transactions are not good, and the overall supply pattern remains loose [7] - Demand: Weak consumption in Europe and the United States and domestic demand weakness are the core factors suppressing pulp prices. During the peak season, downstream paper mills' procurement is cautious [7] Strategy - A neutral strategy is recommended. The pulp price is likely to continue to oscillate at a low level, and attention should be paid to the actual implementation of peak - season demand in the fourth quarter [8]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Soybean Oil**: The price of soybean oil futures rose during the day due to the exhaustion of Argentina's export tax - free quota and the news of potential US support for Argentina's currency swap. With sufficient domestic supply and weak market confidence in the "strong expectation," the futures price is expected to fluctuate widely. It is recommended to temporarily observe the Y2601 contract, with support at 7950 - 8000 yuan/ton and resistance at 8330 - 8350 yuan/ton [3]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: China's temporary anti - dumping measures on Canadian rapeseed imports may lead to a significant reduction in Canadian rapeseed purchases. Although imports from Russia, Dubai, and Australia can partially make up for the supply, the trade policy of Canadian rapeseed remains uncertain. If imports are significantly reduced, domestic rapeseed oil will continue the de - stocking process. It is recommended to go long with a light position, with support at 9655 - 9698 and resistance at 10300 - 10333 [3]. - **Palm Oil**: From September 1 - 20, Malaysia's palm oil production decreased by 4.26 - 7.89% month - on - month, and from 1 - 25, exports increased by 11.3 - 12.9% month - on - month. There is no obvious inventory accumulation pressure in the producing areas. Indonesia may increase the mandatory palm oil blending ratio in biodiesel to B45 before moving to B50. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, with support at 8900 - 8910 and resistance at 9570 - 9590 [4]. - **Soybean Meal and Bean No. 2**: The exhaustion of Argentina's export tax - free quota and the uncertainty of supply policies have led to price fluctuations. The domestic supply of soybean meal is sufficient, and the short - term trend is expected to be volatile. It is recommended that aggressive strategies consider going long with a light position, while conservative strategies consider temporary observation [5]. - **Corn and Corn Starch**: In the short term, the CBOT corn futures price is expected to remain in a low - level range. The domestic market is mainly a game between low channel inventory and the new season's listing rhythm. It is recommended to consider selling wide - straddle option combinations or out - of - the - money call options [7]. - **Soybean No. 1**: The price rebounded with Bean No. 2, but its fundamentals changed little. The new domestic soybeans are gradually being listed, and the supply is increasing, which restricts the price increase [8]. - **Peanuts**: The new season's peanuts are expected to have an increased yield and lower production costs. As the listing volume gradually increases, there is supply pressure on the spot and futures prices. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile [9]. - **Hogs**: The futures price of hogs fluctuated and bottomed out. The current market is affected by factors such as feed prices and production capacity reduction expectations. It is recommended that cautious investors hold long - short spreads, while aggressive investors can consider going long on the 2601 contract after the production capacity reduction is confirmed [10]. - **Eggs**: The futures price of eggs rebounded with reduced positions. After a continuous decline, the spot price rebounded slightly in September. It is recommended that cautious investors avoid short - selling, while aggressive investors can consider going long on the 2511 contract at a low price [10]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents First Part: Sector Strategy Recommendations - **Market Analysis** - **Oilseeds**: Products such as Bean No. 1, Bean No. 2, and peanuts are expected to have a volatile adjustment. It is recommended to temporarily observe [13]. - **Oils**: Soybean oil is expected to decline with fluctuations, while rapeseed oil is expected to be slightly stronger, and palm oil is expected to be volatile. It is recommended to observe soybean oil and palm oil, and go long on rapeseed oil with a light position [13]. - **Proteins**: Both soybean meal and rapeseed meal are expected to be volatile, and it is recommended to observe [13]. - **Energy and By - products**: Corn and corn starch are expected to face pressure, and it is recommended to hold short positions cautiously [13]. - **Livestock**: Hogs are expected to find the bottom with fluctuations, and eggs are expected to be volatile. It is recommended to observe hogs and go long on eggs at a low price [13]. - **Commodity Arbitrage** - For most varieties, it is recommended to observe, while for hogs 1 - 3 and eggs 10 - 1, it is recommended to conduct long - short spreads at a low price [15]. - **Basis and Spot - Futures Strategies** - The report provides the spot prices, price changes, and basis changes of various products, including oilseeds, oils, proteins, energy and by - products, and livestock [16]. Second Part: Key Data Tracking Table - **Oilseeds and Oils** - **Daily Data**: It includes the import costs of soybeans, rapeseeds, and palm oil from different origins and shipping dates [17]. - **Weekly Data**: It shows the inventory and operating rates of beans, rapeseeds, palm oil, and peanuts [19]. - **Feed** - **Daily Data**: It provides the import costs of corn from Argentina and Brazil [19]. - **Weekly Data**: It shows the consumption, inventory, operating rate, and inventory of corn and corn starch in deep - processing enterprises [20]. - **Livestock** - **Daily Data**: It provides the daily data of hogs and eggs, including prices, price changes, and cost - profit data [21][22]. - **Weekly Data**: It shows the weekly data of hogs and eggs, including prices, production costs, profits, and slaughter data [23][25]. Third Part: Fundamental Tracking Charts - **Livestock (Hogs and Eggs)**: It includes charts of futures and spot prices of hogs and eggs, as well as related price charts such as piglets and white - striped pork [26]. - **Oilseeds and Oils** - **Palm Oil**: It includes charts of production, exports, inventory, and other aspects of Malaysian palm oil, as well as domestic palm oil inventory and trading volume [36]. - **Soybean Oil**: It includes charts of US soybean crushing volume, soybean oil inventory, domestic soybean oil factory operating rate, and inventory [43]. - **Peanuts**: It includes charts of peanut arrival, shipment, processing profit, and inventory [52]. - **Feed** - **Corn**: It includes charts of corn futures and spot prices, inventory, import volume, and processing profit [58]. - **Corn Starch**: It includes charts of corn starch futures and spot prices, operating rate, and inventory [65]. - **Rapeseed**: It includes charts of rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil spot prices, inventory, and processing profit [69]. - **Soybean Meal**: It includes charts of US soybean growth indicators, soybean and soybean meal inventory, and basis [75]. Fourth Part: Options Situation of Feed, Livestock, and Oils It includes charts of historical volatility of products such as rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, soybean oil, palm oil, and peanuts, as well as option trading volume and open interest of corn [93]. Fifth Part: Warehouse Receipt Situation of Feed, Livestock, and Oils It provides charts of warehouse receipts of products such as rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, soybean oil, palm oil, peanuts, corn, corn starch, hogs, and eggs [96].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints - For the soybean/meal sector, the international soybean supply is generally loose, with price pressure remaining. In the domestic market, high arrivals and crushing volumes, along with good demand, still result in overall pressure [2][3][4]. - Regarding sugar, internationally, Brazil is in the supply peak, and the global inventory is entering the accumulation phase, which has a bearish impact on prices. However, low - priced sugar has strong support. Domestically, the import volume is high, the domestic sugar inventory is low, and the Zhengzhou sugar price has greater downward resistance [7][8][11]. - In the oil and fat sector, the palm oil price is supported by stable spot prices in the origin. Domestic soybean oil is in the inventory accumulation stage, and the fundamentals of rapeseed oil have little change. Short - term sentiment may affect the market [15][17][19]. - For corn/corn starch, the US corn futures are falling back, and the domestic corn supply is still scarce. The 01 corn contract is oscillating at the bottom [26][27][29]. - In the pig market, the overall supply pressure remains, and the price is expected to decline [35]. - For peanuts, the market is stable, and the 01 peanut contract is oscillating at the bottom [39][40][43]. - In the egg market, high supply, low cost, and weak demand have led to low egg prices. The short - term price rebound is due to holiday stocking, and the price is starting to fall back [48][49][51]. - For apples, the futures are expected to be oscillating in the short term, and the new - season purchase price will have a significant impact on the market [55][56][60]. - In the cotton - cotton yarn market, the Xinjiang cotton output is expected to increase, and the downstream demand improvement is limited. The market is expected to be slightly weak [64][65][67]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean/Meal - **外盘情况**: CBOT大豆指数下跌0.7%至1028.5美分/蒲，CBOT豆粕指数下跌0.74%至280.6美金/短吨 [2] - **相关资讯**: 截至2025年9月18日当周，预计美国2025/26市场年度大豆出口净销售为60 - 160万吨；2024/25市场年度豆粕出口净销售介于0 - 5万吨，2025/26市场年度豆粕出口净销售为15 - 40万吨；欧盟将EUDR执行再度推迟12个月至2026年年底；9月22日当周大豆出口量达200万吨，9月1 - 22日累积出口量约470万吨；截止9月19日当周，油厂大豆实际压榨量242.75万吨，开机率67.76%，大豆库存694.66万吨，较上周减少38.54万吨，减幅5.26%，同比去年增加7.04万吨，增幅1.02%，豆粕库存125万吨，较上周增加8.56万吨，增幅7.35%，同比去年减少20.83万吨，减幅14.28% [2][3] - **逻辑分析**: 美国与阿根廷相关谈判使市场对阿根廷压力担忧好转，国际大豆供应偏宽松，价格有压力；国内大豆到港和压榨量维持高位，需求良好但仍有压力 [4] - **策略建议**: 单边观望；M11 - 1正套；期权观望 [6] Sugar - **外盘变化**: 上一交易日ICE美原糖主力合约震荡小幅收低，跌0.04（-0.25%）至16.12美分/磅；伦白糖主力合约跌4.6（-0.99%）至458.4美元/吨 [7] - **重要咨讯**: 咨询公司StoneX预计巴西中南部地区2026/27年度糖产量达4210万吨，同比增长5.7%，甘蔗压榨量或达6.205亿吨，同比增长3.6%；2025/26年度全球食糖市场预计供应过剩277万吨，巴西、印度和泰国作物收成改善将抵消欧洲减产；内蒙古荷丰农业和新疆绿翔糖业开榨 [8][9] - **逻辑分析**: 国际上巴西供应高峰使全球累库，对价格有一定利空，但低价糖有支撑；国内进口糖量高，国产糖库存低，受外糖走势影响大，郑糖向下阻力变大，广东广西台风对郑糖有支撑 [11] - **交易策略**: 单边外糖短期低位震荡，郑糖受外糖反弹和天气影响走势略强；套利观望；考虑低位卖出虚值看跌期权 [12][13][14] Oil and Fat - **外盘情况**: 隔夜CBOT美豆油主力价格变动幅度 - 0.30%至49.84美分/磅；BMD马棕油主力价格变动幅度0.28%至4353林吉特/吨 [15] - **相关资讯**: MPOC预计马来西亚棕榈油9 - 10月库存小幅攀升，11月回落；印尼和欧盟签署协定，印尼棕榈油等产品有望受益；巴基斯坦9月采购约18万吨美国大豆；截至9月21日，欧盟2025/26年棕榈油、大豆、豆粕、油菜籽进口量较去年有不同程度变化 [17][18] - **逻辑分析**: 9月马棕产量或下滑，出口或上涨，产地现货价格支撑棕榈油；国内豆油累库，关注美豆进口情况；菜油基本面变化不大，澳籽进口有变数，菜油去库支撑价格；短期油脂受情绪面影响，建议观望 [19] - **交易策略**: 单边短期油脂震荡回落，暂时观望；套利观望；期权观望 [20][21][22] Corn/Corn Starch - **外盘变化**: 芝加哥期货交易所（CBOT）玉米期货外盘回落，美玉米12月主力合约回落0.5%，收盘为424.5美分/蒲 [26] - **重要资讯**: 截至2025年9月19日，北方四港玉米库存共计67.5万吨，周环比减少5.4万吨，下海量共计22.4万吨，周环比减少9.70万吨；广东港内贸玉米库存减少，外贸库存增加，进口高粱减少，进口大麦增加；本周全国玉米加工总量、淀粉产量增加，开机率升高；截至9月24日，全国玉米淀粉企业淀粉库存总量下降；9月25日北港收购价稳定，产区黑龙价玉米下跌，华北产区玉米稳定 [27][28] - **逻辑分析**: 美玉米外盘回落，后期下调单产但产量新高，反弹空间有限；国内玉米供应少，东北玉米回落，港口价格偏强，进口玉米拍卖，华北玉米现货反弹，01玉米底部震荡，盘面回落空间小 [29] - **交易策略**: 单边外盘12玉米反弹到高位观望等回调，01玉米建立多单并设止损；套利观望；期权观望 [31][32][33] Pig - **相关资讯**: 生猪价格整体震荡，东北地区12.6 - 12.8元/公斤，华北地区12.4 - 12.5元/公斤等；截止9月23日当周，全国7公斤仔猪价格236元/头，15公斤仔猪价格335元/头，50公斤母猪价格1588元/头；9月24日农产品批发价格指数上升，全国农产品批发市场猪肉平均价格上升0.2% [35] - **逻辑分析**: 规模企业和普通养殖户出栏压力好转，短期供应略减，但生猪存栏高位，总体供应压力仍在，价格偏回落 [35] - **策略建议**: 单边观望；LH15反套；卖出宽跨式策略 [38] Peanut - **重要资讯**: 全国花生通货米均价4.22元/斤基本稳定；山东油厂通货米合同采购报价8400元/吨、河南油厂报价7800元/吨；国庆、中秋双节临近，花生油走货略有改善但不如往年旺季，国内一级普通花生油报价14664元/吨、小榨浓香型花生油市场报价为16350元/吨；截止到2025年9月18日，国内花生油样本企业厂家花生库存减少，花生油库存增加 [39][40] - **逻辑分析**: 部分花生现货上市但因天气上量少，河南和东北新季花生稳定，进口量大幅减少，价格稳定，豆粕、花生粕、花生油价格稳定，油厂有利润，油料花生市场稳定，01花生短期底部震荡 [41][43] - **交易策略**: 单边11和01花生底部震荡，11花生短多操作；套利观望；卖出pk601 - P - 7600期权 [44][45][46] Egg - **重要资讯**: 昨日主产区均价为3.67元/斤，主销区均价3.81元/斤，今日全国主流价格多数稳定，部分地区有落价；8月份全国在产蛋鸡存栏量为13.65亿只，较上月增加0.09亿只，同比增加5.9%，8月份样本企业蛋鸡苗月度出苗量环比减少0.1%，同比减少8%；9月11日一周全国主产区蛋鸡淘鸡出栏量减少，淘汰鸡平均淘汰日龄持平；截至9月11日当周全国代表销区鸡蛋销量减少，生产和流通环节周度平均库存减少 [48][49][50] - **交易逻辑**: 总体供应高，高存栏低成本叠加弱需求使蛋价低，前期超低蛋价增加淘鸡积极性，近期蛋价反弹使淘鸡意愿下降，双节备货使库存去化，近期走货放缓，蛋价开始回落 [51] - **交易策略**: 单边近期蛋价回落，近月合约可逢高沽空；套利观望；期权观望 [52][53][54] Apple - **重要资讯**: 截至2025年9月10日，全国主产区苹果冷库库存量为20.91万吨，环比上周减少6.44万吨，山东产区库存走货速度加快；7月份鲜苹果出口量环比增加44.95%，进口量环比减少5.73%，同比增加8.47%，1 - 7月累计进口量同比增加29.76%；山东产区冷库苹果价格主流平稳，优质货源成交顺畅，红将军货源供应量充足但好货偏紧，西北产区客商按需采购，采青货订购价格高，国内批发市场到货平稳，主流成交价格稳定；山东烟台栖霞苹果主流价格稳定，三级果交易顺畅 [55][56][57] - **交易逻辑**: 早熟苹果优果率差，晚熟富士优果率预计也差，开称价格预期略高，但期货盘面价格已不低，短期偏震荡，关注新季收购价格 [60] - **交易策略**: 单边预计短期受优果率差预期苹果偏震荡，前期高位是近期高点，后期苹果上市后卖套保压力大；套利观望；期权观望 [60][61][62] Cotton - Cotton Yarn - **外盘影响**: 昨日ICE美棉下跌，主力合约下跌0.47（0.71%）至66.14分/磅 [64] - **重要资讯**: 昨日市场交投冷清，现货基差偏稳，纺企刚需采购，今日籽棉收购价暂稳，棉农观望心理强；美棉主产区及得克萨斯州气温上升降水增加，降水仍偏低，干旱水平上行，优良率小幅下滑；近日籽棉采收增加，价格跌后暂稳，新季棉籽少量上市，棉短绒价格上涨 [65][66] - **交易逻辑**: 新花进入收购，市场关注新棉开称，新疆棉产量预计超预期增加，轧花厂收购积极性一般，无大范围抢收，新花上市有卖套保压力，9月市场旺季下游需求好转有限，旺季表现一般，对盘面提振有限 [67] - **交易策略**: 单边预计未来美棉走势大概率震荡，郑棉前期高位是短期高点，近期卖套保压力大，震荡略偏弱，建议择机交易；套利观望；期权观望 [68][69][70]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - For soybeans/meal, the CBOT soybean index rose slightly while the CBOT meal index declined. With various factors like export sales, NOPA压榨 reports, and Brazilian planting area and yield forecasts, strategies include going long on distant - month contracts of soybean and rapeseed meal, expanding the MRM05 spread, and buying call options [2][3][5]. - For sugar, international sugar is expected to enter a inventory - building phase, with a narrowing supply gap. Domestic sugar has low inventory but large imports. The price is expected to rebound at a low level, and trading strategies involve a slightly bullish short - term outlook for Zhengzhou sugar, staying on the sidelines for spreads, and selling put options [6][9][10]. - For oils, palm oil production and inventory building in Malaysia are expected to slow down, and Indonesian prices are supported. U.S. soybeans have a strong harvest expectation, and domestic soybean oil is in the inventory - building stage. Strategies include buying on dips for short - term trading, staying on the sidelines for spreads and options [12][15][16]. - For corn/corn starch, the CBOT corn futures rebounded. Domestic corn supply is tight, but prices may fall. Trading strategies involve short - term long positions on the 12 - month CBOT corn on dips, staying on the sidelines for the 01 - month contract, and slightly expanding the spread between the 11 - month corn and starch [21][23][24]. - For pigs, the supply pressure has decreased slightly, but there is still some pressure due to high inventory and weight. Strategies include shorting near - month contracts on rallies, conducting LH15 reverse spreads, and buying long - term call options [27][28][29]. - For peanuts, the spot supply is limited, and the market is stable. The 11 - and 01 - month contracts are expected to fluctuate at the bottom, and the 05 - month contract can be lightly long. Stay on the sidelines for spreads and sell pk601 - P - 7600 options [32][34][35]. - For eggs, the supply pressure remains, and demand is expected to increase slightly during festivals. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines for all trading methods [40][42][43]. - For apples, the early - maturing apple quality is poor, and the price is expected to fluctuate in the short term. Stay on the sidelines for spreads and options, and expect short - term fluctuations for new - season apples [44][45][46]. - For cotton - cotton yarn, the new cotton harvest is approaching, with high production and low enthusiasm from ginners. There will be selling hedging pressure, and demand improvement is limited. Strategies include shorting Zhengzhou cotton on rallies, staying on the sidelines for spreads and options [49][52][53]. Summary by Directory Soybeans/Meal - **External Market**: CBOT soybean index rose 0.1% to 1052 cents/bushel, CBOT meal index fell 0.3% to 291.3 dollars/short ton [2]. - **Relevant Information**: U.S. soybean and meal export sales data, NOPA压榨 report forecast, Brazilian soybean planting area and yield forecast, and domestic oil mill soybean and meal inventory data [2][3]. - **Logic Analysis**: Multiple factors affect the market, and there are opportunities for long - term growth [2][3][4]. - **Trading Strategies**: Long on distant - month contracts of soybean and rapeseed meal, expand the MRM05 spread, buy call options [5]. Sugar - **External Market Changes**: ICE U.S. raw sugar and London white sugar prices declined [6]. - **Important Information**: Brazilian port sugar shipping data, fire in Brazilian sugar - cane areas, and Chinese sugar import data [7][8]. - **Logic Analysis**: International sugar is in a supply - increasing phase, and domestic sugar is affected by imports. The price is expected to rebound [9]. - **Trading Strategies**: Slightly bullish short - term outlook for Zhengzhou sugar, stay on the sidelines for spreads, sell put options [10][11]. Oils - **External Market**: CBOT soybean oil and BMD palm oil prices changed slightly [12]. - **Relevant Information**: Malaysian palm oil planting area, U.S. soybean drought situation, and Canadian rapeseed export data [14]. - **Logic Analysis**: Palm oil production and inventory building in Malaysia are expected to slow down, and domestic oil fundamentals vary [15]. - **Trading Strategies**: Buy on dips for short - term trading, stay on the sidelines for spreads and options [16][17][18]. Corn/Corn Starch - **External Market Changes**: CBOT corn futures rebounded [21]. - **Important Information**: CBOT corn and wheat futures prices, domestic corn inventory and consumption data, and corn purchase price [22]. - **Logic Analysis**: U.S. corn has room to rebound, and domestic corn prices may fall [23]. - **Trading Strategies**: Short - term long positions on the 12 - month CBOT corn on dips, stay on the sidelines for the 01 - month contract, slightly expand the spread between the 11 - month corn and starch [24][25]. Pigs - **Relevant Information**: Pig price, piglet and sow price, and agricultural product wholesale price index [27]. - **Logic Analysis**: Supply pressure has decreased slightly but still exists [28]. - **Trading Strategies**: Short near - month contracts on rallies, conduct LH15 reverse spreads, buy long - term call options [29]. Peanuts - **Important Information**: Peanut price, oil mill purchase price, peanut oil and meal price, and peanut inventory [32][33]. - **Logic Analysis**: Spot supply is limited, and the market is stable [34]. - **Trading Strategies**: The 11 - and 01 - month contracts are expected to fluctuate at the bottom, lightly long the 05 - month contract, stay on the sidelines for spreads, sell pk601 - P - 7600 options [35][37][38]. Eggs - **Important Information**: Egg price, in - production laying hen inventory, egg - chick hatchling volume, hen culling data, egg sales volume, and inventory [40][41][42]. - **Logic Analysis**: Supply pressure remains, and demand may increase slightly during festivals [42]. - **Trading Strategies**: Stay on the sidelines for all trading methods [43]. Apples - **Important Information**: Apple cold - storage inventory, export and import data, spot price, and storage profit [44][45]. - **Logic Analysis**: Early - maturing apple quality is poor, and the price is expected to fluctuate [45]. - **Trading Strategies**: Expect short - term fluctuations for new - season apples, stay on the sidelines for spreads and options [46][47][48]. Cotton - Cotton Yarn - **External Market Impact**: ICE U.S. cotton price declined [49]. - **Important Information**: Indian cotton rainfall, U.S. cotton export sales, and domestic cotton spot trading and basis [50][51]. - **Trading Logic**: New cotton harvest is approaching, with high production and limited demand improvement [52]. - **Trading Strategies**: Short Zhengzhou cotton on rallies, stay on the sidelines for spreads and options [53].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The international soybean market's supply - demand situation has improved significantly, while the domestic soybean has obvious inventory - building pressure. For sugar, the international market is expected to enter a stocking phase, and the domestic sugar price will follow the international trend. In the oils and fats sector, the price of palm oil is supported, and the fundamentals of domestic rapeseed oil are stable. Corn spot prices are expected to decline, and the 01 - contract corn has limited downside. The supply of live pigs is expected to increase, and the near - term pressure is obvious. Peanut prices are stable in the short - term but may face supply pressure in the new season. Egg prices are under pressure due to high supply, and apple prices are expected to fluctuate widely in the short - term. Cotton prices are expected to be slightly stronger in the short - term [5][10][17][25][31][35][43][53][59] Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean/Meal - **External Market**: CBOT soybean index rose 0.73% to 1067.25 cents per bushel, and CBOT soybean meal index rose 0.17% to 296.6 dollars per short ton [2] - **Relevant Information**: USDA data shows changes in US soybean and soybean meal export net sales; Pro Farmer predicts an increase in soybean pod numbers in some regions; IGC slightly increases the global soybean production forecast for 2025/26 to 4.30 billion tons (year - on - year + 1%); My Agri data shows the soybean crushing volume, inventory, and soybean meal inventory situation [2][3] - **Logic Analysis**: The international soybean market's supply - demand situation has improved, with reduced supply pressure in the US, potential price correction in Brazil, and improved export pressure in Argentina. The domestic soybean has high arrivals and crushing volume, with obvious inventory - building pressure [5] - **Strategy Suggestion**: For unilateral trading, long positions in the far - month contracts of soybean and rapeseed meal are recommended; for arbitrage, expand the MRM05 spread; for options, buy call options [6] Sugar - **External Market Changes**: ICE US raw sugar price fell 0.22 (- 1.33%) to 16.36 cents per pound, and London white sugar price fell 6.4 (- 1.31%) to 482.9 dollars per ton [7] - **Important Information**: SCA Brasil data shows a decrease in the sugarcane crushing volume in the central - southern region this season; China's customs data shows the import volume of syrup and premixed powder; domestic sugar quotes in different regions are provided [8][9] - **Logic Analysis**: Internationally, Brazil is in the supply peak, and the global inventory is expected to increase. The domestic sugar price is affected by the international price and is expected to follow the international trend [10] - **Position Suggestion**: For unilateral trading, the Zhengzhou sugar price is expected to fluctuate between 5500 - 5700; for arbitrage and options, take a wait - and - see approach [11][12][13] Oils and Fats - **External Market Situation**: CBOT US soybean oil主力 price changed by - 0.52% to 51.41 cents per pound, and BMD Malaysian palm oil主力 price changed by 0.71% to 4529 ringgit per ton [16] - **Relevant Information**: ITS data shows an increase in Malaysian palm oil exports from August 1 - 20; Indonesia plans to increase palm oil production; Pro Farmer provides soybean pod numbers in some regions; Australian rapeseed production forecast is stable; the US Soybean Association urges to reopen the Chinese market [16] - **Logic Analysis**: Malaysian palm oil is expected to continue to increase production and inventory, but the Indonesian price provides support. Domestic soybean imports and crushing volume are decreasing, and the fundamentals of domestic rapeseed oil are stable [17] - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, short - term oils and fats may correct, with limited correction range; for arbitrage, the YP01 spread may rebound, and the P15 spread can be expanded after correction; for options, take a wait - and - see approach [20] Corn/Corn Starch - **External Market Changes**: CBOT corn futures rose, with the December主力 contract rebounding 1.7% to 411.5 cents per bushel [21] - **Important Information**: USDA drought report shows the drought situation in US soybean and corn planting areas; Mysteel data shows the inventory and consumption of corn and corn starch [22] - **Logic Analysis**: Corn spot prices are expected to decline, and the 01 - contract corn has limited downside [25] - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, go long on the external December corn and the 01 - contract corn at the bottom; for arbitrage, expand the spread between November corn and starch; for options, take a wait - and - see approach [25][26][27] Live Pigs - **Relevant Information**: Live pig prices have slightly declined in some regions; piglet and sow prices have changed; agricultural product wholesale price indices and pork prices are provided [29] - **Logic Analysis**: The supply of live pigs has slightly improved, but the future supply pressure is expected to increase, with obvious near - term pressure [31] - **Strategy Suggestion**: For unilateral trading, buy far - month contracts at low prices; for arbitrage, conduct LH91 reverse arbitrage; for options, take a wait - and - see approach [32] Peanuts - **Important Information**: Peanut prices in different regions are provided; most oil mills are in a shutdown state, waiting for new peanuts; peanut oil and peanut meal prices are stable [33] - **Logic Analysis**: Peanut prices are stable in the short - term, but the new - season supply is expected to be sufficient due to the expected increase in planting area [35] - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, short the October peanut contract at high prices and currently wait and see; for arbitrage, take a wait - and - see approach; for options, sell the pk510 - C - 8300 option [36][37][38] Eggs - **Important Information**: Egg prices in the main production and sales areas have declined; the number of laying hens in production has increased; egg sales volume has decreased; inventory has increased; and profit has changed [40][41][42] - **Trading Logic**: The supply of eggs is high, and the short - term bearish logic holds [43] - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, short at high prices; for arbitrage, short near - month contracts before the Spring Festival and long far - month contracts after the Spring Festival; for options, sell out - of - the - money call options [43][46][47] Apples - **Important Information**: Apple inventory in the main production areas has decreased; import and export volumes have changed; apple prices are stable, and the profit of apple storage has declined [49][50][51] - **Trading Logic**: The current apple inventory is low, the demand is in the off - season, and the new - season production is expected to be similar to this season. The price is expected to fluctuate widely in the short - term [53] - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, expect wide - range fluctuations; for arbitrage and options, take a wait - and - see approach [54][55] Cotton - Cotton Yarn - **External Market Impact**: ICE US cotton fell, with the主力 contract falling 0.06 (0.09%) to 67.47 cents per pound [56] - **Important Information**: Indian cotton weekly and cumulative listing volumes are provided; CFTC data shows the change in unfixed call sales of ICE cotton [57][58] - **Trading Logic**: The short - term impact of tariffs may weaken, and the supply of cotton is tight. The demand is expected to improve in August. Cotton prices are expected to be slightly stronger in the short - term [59] - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, expect a slightly stronger trend with limited upside; for arbitrage and options, take a wait - and - see approach [60]

Report Industry Investment Rating The provided text does not mention the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Soybean Oil**: The soybean oil market is in a "weak reality + strong expectation" pattern. The weak reality is reflected in high inventory and slow sales in the spot market, while the strong expectation is shown by fewer purchases in the fourth quarter, export drive, possible slowdown in oil mill crushing, and impending inventory reduction. Short - term callback space is expected to be limited, and it is still bullish in the medium - to - long - term. Consider 1 - 5 positive spread operations [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: China's temporary anti - dumping measures on Canadian rapeseed may reduce domestic purchases from Canada. However, domestic rapeseed oil inventory is seasonally high, and traders are importing from other countries as a supplement. The price is expected to fluctuate, with limited room for further decline [1]. - **Palm Oil**: Malaysian palm oil production growth has slowed, and export demand is good. Domestic inventory has increased, and the basis is under short - term pressure. There is a short - term adjustment need, but support exists. Hold partial long positions after partial profit - taking [2]. - **Soybean No. 2 and Soybean Meal**: The possible soybean reserve release and US soybean import rotation (unconfirmed) have led to a decline in soybean No. 2 and soybean meal. Soybean meal is in a "weak reality + strong expectation" situation, and the short - term decline is limited. Consider going long after stabilization [2]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The expected reduction in Canadian rapeseed imports and weak consumption have led to a decline in rapeseed meal prices. However, there is still an expectation of inventory reduction in the long - term. It is recommended to wait and see or go long at low prices [2]. - **Corn and Corn Starch**: The prices are expected to continue to be under pressure due to factors such as abundant supply from South America, increased US planting area, and continuous release of imported corn. It is recommended to hold short positions cautiously [4]. - **Soybean No. 1**: New domestic soybeans are gradually coming onto the market, increasing supply. The price is expected to be under pressure, but downstream replenishment during the back - to - school season may provide support. Hold short positions [5]. - **Peanuts**: The new season is expected to have increased production and lower costs, putting pressure on prices. Consider holding short positions for the 11 - contract [6]. - **Hogs**: The implementation of new regulations may affect cross - provincial transportation and increase secondary fattening costs. The short - term price is expected to fluctuate, and it is recommended to hold long positions for the 11 - contract and consider long - term long positions after capacity reduction is confirmed [6]. - **Eggs**: The current price is at a low level, and consumption is in the off - season. After the cost collapse risk is partially released, it is recommended to wait and see for the 09 - contract and consider going long for the 11 - contract at low prices [7]. Summary by Directory First Part: Sector Strategy Recommendations 1. Market Judgment - **Oilseeds**: Soybean No. 1 11 - contract is expected to fluctuate, hold short positions; Soybean No. 2 09 - contract is expected to fluctuate and adjust, wait and see; Peanut 11 - contract is expected to be bearish, hold short positions; Soybean oil 01 - contract is expected to fluctuate and adjust, wait and see [10]. - **Oils**: Rapeseed oil 01 - contract is expected to fluctuate and adjust, wait and see; Palm 01 - contract is expected to be bullish, reduce long positions [10]. - **Proteins**: Soybean meal 01 - contract is expected to fluctuate and adjust, wait and see; Rapeseed meal 01 - contract is expected to fluctuate within a range, go long at low prices [10]. - **Energy and By - products**: Corn 11 - contract is expected to be bearish, hold short positions cautiously; Starch 11 - contract is expected to be bearish, hold short positions cautiously [10]. - **Livestock Farming**: Hog 11 - contract is expected to rebound, hold long positions; Egg 10 - contract is expected to find a bottom, wait and see [10]. 2. Commodity Arbitrage - **Oilseeds**: For soybean No. 1 9 - 1, soybean No. 2 9 - 1, and peanut 10 - 11, wait and see; For soybean meal 3 - 5, conduct positive spread operations [11][12]. - **Oils**: For soybean oil 9 - 1, rapeseed oil 9 - 1, and palm oil 9 - 1, wait and see; For 09 soybean oil - palm oil, conduct bearish operations; For 09 rapeseed oil - soybean oil, conduct bullish operations; For 09 rapeseed oil - palm oil, wait and see [12]. - **Proteins**: For 09 soybean meal - rapeseed meal, it is in a low - level oscillation; For 09 soybean oil - meal ratio, go long; For 09 rapeseed oil - meal ratio, wait and see [12]. - **Energy and By - products**: For 11 starch - corn, wait and see [12]. - **Livestock Farming**: For hog 9 - 1 and egg 9 - 1, conduct positive spread operations at low prices [12]. 3. Basis and Spot - Futures Strategies The report provides spot prices, price changes, and basis changes for various commodities such as soybean No. 1, soybean No. 2, peanuts, etc., which can be used for basis and spot - futures trading analysis [13]. Second Part: Key Data Tracking Table 1. Oils and Oilseeds - **Daily Data**: It shows the import cost data of soybeans, rapeseeds, and palm oil from different origins and different shipping dates, including to - shore premium, futures prices, CNF prices, and import duty - paid prices [15]. - **Weekly Data**: Presents the inventory and operating rates of beans, rapeseeds, palm oil, and peanuts, such as soybean port inventory, oil mill soybean meal inventory, etc. [17]. 2. Feed - **Daily Data**: Provides the import cost data of corn from Argentina and Brazil in different months [17]. - **Weekly Data**: Shows the consumption, inventory, operating rate, and inventory of corn and corn starch in deep - processing enterprises [18]. 3. Livestock Farming - **Daily Data**: Displays the daily data of hogs and eggs, including spot prices, price changes, and basis in different regions [19][20]. - **Weekly Data**: Presents the weekly key data of hogs and eggs, such as breeding costs, profits, slaughter data, and supply - demand data [21][22][23]. Third Part: Fundamental Tracking Charts - **Livestock Farming (Hogs and Eggs)**: Includes charts of hog and egg futures prices, spot prices, and related prices such as piglet prices, chicken苗 prices, etc. [25][27][28][30][32][33][34]. - **Oils and Oilseeds**: - **Palm Oil**: Charts show Malaysian palm oil production, exports, inventory, import profit, domestic inventory, and price spreads [36][38][39]. - **Soybean Oil**: Charts display US soybean crushing volume, soybean oil inventory, domestic oil mill operating rate, and inventory [48][50][51]. - **Peanuts**: Charts present peanut arrival, shipment, processing profit, and inventory [53][54]. - **Feed**: - **Corn**: Charts show corn futures prices, spot prices, inventory, import volume, and processing profit [57][58]. - **Corn Starch**: Charts display corn starch futures prices, spot prices, operating rate, inventory, and processing profit [60][61]. - **Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil**: Charts show rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil spot prices, basis, inventory, and processing profit [63][65][67][69]. - **Soybean Meal**: Charts present US soybean growth rates, domestic soybean and soybean meal inventory [71]. Fourth Part: Options Situation of Soybean Meal, Feed, Livestock Farming, and Oils It shows the historical volatility of various commodities such as rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, soybean oil, palm oil, and peanuts, as well as the trading volume, open interest, and put - call ratio of corn options [73][74]. Fifth Part: Warehouse Receipt Situation of Feed, Livestock Farming, and Oils Presents the warehouse receipt data of rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, soybean oil, palm oil, peanuts, corn, corn starch, hogs, and eggs [76][77][78].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report provides daily strategy recommendations for feed, breeding, and oil industries, including market analysis, support and resistance levels, and trading strategies for various commodities such as soybeans, palm oil, and livestock [3][4][5]. - It also presents data on import costs, inventory, and operating rates for these industries, as well as charts for tracking market fundamentals and option volatility [16][18][80]. Summary by Directory Part I: Sector Strategy Recommendations 1. Market Analysis - **Oilseeds**: Soybean No. 1 09 contract is expected to fluctuate strongly, while soybean No. 2 09 contract will adjust. Peanut 10 contract is likely to decline. Long positions in soybean oil 01 contract can be held [11]. - **Oils**: Rapeseed oil 09 contract will fluctuate within a range, and long positions can be taken at low levels. Palm oil 09 contract is expected to rise, and long positions should be held [11]. - **Protein**: Soybean meal 09 contract is expected to fall, and long positions should be closed. Rapeseed meal 09 contract will decline, and long positions should be exited [11]. - **Energy and By - products**: Corn 09 and starch 09 contracts will fluctuate, and short positions can be reduced at low levels [11]. - **Livestock**: Pig 09 contract will rebound, and long positions can be reduced at high levels. Egg 09 contract will bottom - hunt, and long positions can be taken at low levels [11]. 2. Commodity Arbitrage - For most cross - period and cross - variety arbitrage, the recommended strategy is to wait and see. However, for some, such as soybean meal 11 - 1, a positive spread strategy is recommended, and for pig 9 - 1 and egg 9 - 1, a positive spread strategy at low levels is suggested [12][13]. 3. Basis and Spot - Futures Strategies - The report provides spot prices, price changes, and basis information for various commodities in different sectors, including oilseeds, oils, protein, energy and by - products, and livestock [14]. Part II: Key Data Tracking Table 1. Oils and Oilseeds - **Daily Data**: It includes import cost data for soybeans from different origins and shipping dates, rapeseeds, and palm oil [16]. - **Weekly Data**: It shows inventory and operating rate data for beans, rapeseeds, palm oil, and peanuts [18]. 2. Feed - **Daily Data**: Import cost data for corn from Argentina and Brazil are provided [18]. - **Weekly Data**: Data on corn consumption, inventory, starch enterprise operating rate, and inventory are presented [19]. 3. Breeding - It provides daily and weekly data on the pig and egg markets, including prices, costs, profits, and inventory [20][22][24]. Part III: Fundamental Tracking Charts - **Breeding End**: Charts for tracking the closing prices of pig and egg futures contracts, as well as spot prices, are provided [25][29]. - **Oils and Oilseeds**: Charts for palm oil, soybean oil, and peanuts, including production, exports, inventory, and trading volume, are presented [34][47][54]. - **Feed End**: Charts for corn, corn starch, rapeseed meal, and soybean meal, including inventory, consumption, and processing profits, are shown [58][64][72]. Part IV: Option Situation for Soybean Meal, Feed, Breeding, and Oils - Charts for historical volatility of rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, soybean oil, palm oil, and peanuts, as well as option trading volume and open interest for corn, are provided [80]. Part V: Warehouse Receipt Situation for Feed, Breeding, and Oils - Charts for warehouse receipts of rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, soybean oil, palm oil, peanuts, corn, corn starch, pigs, and eggs are presented [83].