农产品团队 | 作者： | 王亮亮 | | --- | --- | | 从业资格证号： | F03096306 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0017427 | | 联系方式： | 010-68578697 | | 作者： | 侯芝芳 | | 从业资格证号： | F3042058 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0014216 | | 联系方式： | 010-68578922 | | 作者： | 王一博 | | 从业资格证号： | F3083334 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0018596 | | 联系方式： | 010-68578169 | | 作者： | 宋从志 | | 从业资格证号： | F03095512 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0020712 | | 联系方式： | 18001936153 | 投资咨询业务资格：京证监许可【2012】75号 成文时间：2025年09月25日星期四 更多精彩内容请关注方正中期官方微信 期货研究院 养殖油脂产业链日度策略报告 摘要 豆油：日内豆油期价上涨。主要原因在于阿根廷出口免税额度用尽 ，以及此前消息称美国或将采取必要措施支持阿根廷进行美元货币 互换以缓解阿 ...

大宗商品研究所 农产品研发报告 每日早盘观察 2025 年 9 月 25 日 公众号二维码 银河农产品及衍生品 粕猪研究：陈界正 期货从业证号：F3045719 投资咨询证号：Z0015458 棉禽苹果白糖研究： 刘倩楠 期货从业证号：F3013727 投资咨询证号：Z0014425 玉米花生：刘大勇 期货从业证号： F03107370 投资咨询证号：Z0018389 棉禽研究：王玺圳 期货从业证号： F03118729 投资咨询证号：Z0022817 油脂研究：张盼盼 期货从业证号： F03119783 投资咨询证号：Z0022908 每日早盘观察 大豆/粕类 【外盘情况】 CBOT 大豆指数下跌 0.7%至 1028.5 美分/蒲，CBOT 豆粕指数下跌 0.74%至 280.6 美金/短吨 【相关资讯】 1.USDA 出口销售前瞻：截至 2025 年 9 月 18 日当周，预计美国 2025/26 市场 年度大豆出口净销售为 60-160 万吨；预计美国 2024/25 市场年度豆粕出口净销售 介于 0-5 万吨，2025/26 市场年度豆粕出口净销售为 15-40 万吨。 2.油世界：欧盟将 EUDR ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - For soybeans/meal, the CBOT soybean index rose slightly while the CBOT meal index declined. With various factors like export sales, NOPA压榨 reports, and Brazilian planting area and yield forecasts, strategies include going long on distant - month contracts of soybean and rapeseed meal, expanding the MRM05 spread, and buying call options [2][3][5]. - For sugar, international sugar is expected to enter a inventory - building phase, with a narrowing supply gap. Domestic sugar has low inventory but large imports. The price is expected to rebound at a low level, and trading strategies involve a slightly bullish short - term outlook for Zhengzhou sugar, staying on the sidelines for spreads, and selling put options [6][9][10]. - For oils, palm oil production and inventory building in Malaysia are expected to slow down, and Indonesian prices are supported. U.S. soybeans have a strong harvest expectation, and domestic soybean oil is in the inventory - building stage. Strategies include buying on dips for short - term trading, staying on the sidelines for spreads and options [12][15][16]. - For corn/corn starch, the CBOT corn futures rebounded. Domestic corn supply is tight, but prices may fall. Trading strategies involve short - term long positions on the 12 - month CBOT corn on dips, staying on the sidelines for the 01 - month contract, and slightly expanding the spread between the 11 - month corn and starch [21][23][24]. - For pigs, the supply pressure has decreased slightly, but there is still some pressure due to high inventory and weight. Strategies include shorting near - month contracts on rallies, conducting LH15 reverse spreads, and buying long - term call options [27][28][29]. - For peanuts, the spot supply is limited, and the market is stable. The 11 - and 01 - month contracts are expected to fluctuate at the bottom, and the 05 - month contract can be lightly long. Stay on the sidelines for spreads and sell pk601 - P - 7600 options [32][34][35]. - For eggs, the supply pressure remains, and demand is expected to increase slightly during festivals. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines for all trading methods [40][42][43]. - For apples, the early - maturing apple quality is poor, and the price is expected to fluctuate in the short term. Stay on the sidelines for spreads and options, and expect short - term fluctuations for new - season apples [44][45][46]. - For cotton - cotton yarn, the new cotton harvest is approaching, with high production and low enthusiasm from ginners. There will be selling hedging pressure, and demand improvement is limited. Strategies include shorting Zhengzhou cotton on rallies, staying on the sidelines for spreads and options [49][52][53]. Summary by Directory Soybeans/Meal - **External Market**: CBOT soybean index rose 0.1% to 1052 cents/bushel, CBOT meal index fell 0.3% to 291.3 dollars/short ton [2]. - **Relevant Information**: U.S. soybean and meal export sales data, NOPA压榨 report forecast, Brazilian soybean planting area and yield forecast, and domestic oil mill soybean and meal inventory data [2][3]. - **Logic Analysis**: Multiple factors affect the market, and there are opportunities for long - term growth [2][3][4]. - **Trading Strategies**: Long on distant - month contracts of soybean and rapeseed meal, expand the MRM05 spread, buy call options [5]. Sugar - **External Market Changes**: ICE U.S. raw sugar and London white sugar prices declined [6]. - **Important Information**: Brazilian port sugar shipping data, fire in Brazilian sugar - cane areas, and Chinese sugar import data [7][8]. - **Logic Analysis**: International sugar is in a supply - increasing phase, and domestic sugar is affected by imports. The price is expected to rebound [9]. - **Trading Strategies**: Slightly bullish short - term outlook for Zhengzhou sugar, stay on the sidelines for spreads, sell put options [10][11]. Oils - **External Market**: CBOT soybean oil and BMD palm oil prices changed slightly [12]. - **Relevant Information**: Malaysian palm oil planting area, U.S. soybean drought situation, and Canadian rapeseed export data [14]. - **Logic Analysis**: Palm oil production and inventory building in Malaysia are expected to slow down, and domestic oil fundamentals vary [15]. - **Trading Strategies**: Buy on dips for short - term trading, stay on the sidelines for spreads and options [16][17][18]. Corn/Corn Starch - **External Market Changes**: CBOT corn futures rebounded [21]. - **Important Information**: CBOT corn and wheat futures prices, domestic corn inventory and consumption data, and corn purchase price [22]. - **Logic Analysis**: U.S. corn has room to rebound, and domestic corn prices may fall [23]. - **Trading Strategies**: Short - term long positions on the 12 - month CBOT corn on dips, stay on the sidelines for the 01 - month contract, slightly expand the spread between the 11 - month corn and starch [24][25]. Pigs - **Relevant Information**: Pig price, piglet and sow price, and agricultural product wholesale price index [27]. - **Logic Analysis**: Supply pressure has decreased slightly but still exists [28]. - **Trading Strategies**: Short near - month contracts on rallies, conduct LH15 reverse spreads, buy long - term call options [29]. Peanuts - **Important Information**: Peanut price, oil mill purchase price, peanut oil and meal price, and peanut inventory [32][33]. - **Logic Analysis**: Spot supply is limited, and the market is stable [34]. - **Trading Strategies**: The 11 - and 01 - month contracts are expected to fluctuate at the bottom, lightly long the 05 - month contract, stay on the sidelines for spreads, sell pk601 - P - 7600 options [35][37][38]. Eggs - **Important Information**: Egg price, in - production laying hen inventory, egg - chick hatchling volume, hen culling data, egg sales volume, and inventory [40][41][42]. - **Logic Analysis**: Supply pressure remains, and demand may increase slightly during festivals [42]. - **Trading Strategies**: Stay on the sidelines for all trading methods [43]. Apples - **Important Information**: Apple cold - storage inventory, export and import data, spot price, and storage profit [44][45]. - **Logic Analysis**: Early - maturing apple quality is poor, and the price is expected to fluctuate [45]. - **Trading Strategies**: Expect short - term fluctuations for new - season apples, stay on the sidelines for spreads and options [46][47][48]. Cotton - Cotton Yarn - **External Market Impact**: ICE U.S. cotton price declined [49]. - **Important Information**: Indian cotton rainfall, U.S. cotton export sales, and domestic cotton spot trading and basis [50][51]. - **Trading Logic**: New cotton harvest is approaching, with high production and limited demand improvement [52]. - **Trading Strategies**: Short Zhengzhou cotton on rallies, stay on the sidelines for spreads and options [53].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The international soybean market's supply - demand situation has improved significantly, while the domestic soybean has obvious inventory - building pressure. For sugar, the international market is expected to enter a stocking phase, and the domestic sugar price will follow the international trend. In the oils and fats sector, the price of palm oil is supported, and the fundamentals of domestic rapeseed oil are stable. Corn spot prices are expected to decline, and the 01 - contract corn has limited downside. The supply of live pigs is expected to increase, and the near - term pressure is obvious. Peanut prices are stable in the short - term but may face supply pressure in the new season. Egg prices are under pressure due to high supply, and apple prices are expected to fluctuate widely in the short - term. Cotton prices are expected to be slightly stronger in the short - term [5][10][17][25][31][35][43][53][59] Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean/Meal - **External Market**: CBOT soybean index rose 0.73% to 1067.25 cents per bushel, and CBOT soybean meal index rose 0.17% to 296.6 dollars per short ton [2] - **Relevant Information**: USDA data shows changes in US soybean and soybean meal export net sales; Pro Farmer predicts an increase in soybean pod numbers in some regions; IGC slightly increases the global soybean production forecast for 2025/26 to 4.30 billion tons (year - on - year + 1%); My Agri data shows the soybean crushing volume, inventory, and soybean meal inventory situation [2][3] - **Logic Analysis**: The international soybean market's supply - demand situation has improved, with reduced supply pressure in the US, potential price correction in Brazil, and improved export pressure in Argentina. The domestic soybean has high arrivals and crushing volume, with obvious inventory - building pressure [5] - **Strategy Suggestion**: For unilateral trading, long positions in the far - month contracts of soybean and rapeseed meal are recommended; for arbitrage, expand the MRM05 spread; for options, buy call options [6] Sugar - **External Market Changes**: ICE US raw sugar price fell 0.22 (- 1.33%) to 16.36 cents per pound, and London white sugar price fell 6.4 (- 1.31%) to 482.9 dollars per ton [7] - **Important Information**: SCA Brasil data shows a decrease in the sugarcane crushing volume in the central - southern region this season; China's customs data shows the import volume of syrup and premixed powder; domestic sugar quotes in different regions are provided [8][9] - **Logic Analysis**: Internationally, Brazil is in the supply peak, and the global inventory is expected to increase. The domestic sugar price is affected by the international price and is expected to follow the international trend [10] - **Position Suggestion**: For unilateral trading, the Zhengzhou sugar price is expected to fluctuate between 5500 - 5700; for arbitrage and options, take a wait - and - see approach [11][12][13] Oils and Fats - **External Market Situation**: CBOT US soybean oil主力 price changed by - 0.52% to 51.41 cents per pound, and BMD Malaysian palm oil主力 price changed by 0.71% to 4529 ringgit per ton [16] - **Relevant Information**: ITS data shows an increase in Malaysian palm oil exports from August 1 - 20; Indonesia plans to increase palm oil production; Pro Farmer provides soybean pod numbers in some regions; Australian rapeseed production forecast is stable; the US Soybean Association urges to reopen the Chinese market [16] - **Logic Analysis**: Malaysian palm oil is expected to continue to increase production and inventory, but the Indonesian price provides support. Domestic soybean imports and crushing volume are decreasing, and the fundamentals of domestic rapeseed oil are stable [17] - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, short - term oils and fats may correct, with limited correction range; for arbitrage, the YP01 spread may rebound, and the P15 spread can be expanded after correction; for options, take a wait - and - see approach [20] Corn/Corn Starch - **External Market Changes**: CBOT corn futures rose, with the December主力 contract rebounding 1.7% to 411.5 cents per bushel [21] - **Important Information**: USDA drought report shows the drought situation in US soybean and corn planting areas; Mysteel data shows the inventory and consumption of corn and corn starch [22] - **Logic Analysis**: Corn spot prices are expected to decline, and the 01 - contract corn has limited downside [25] - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, go long on the external December corn and the 01 - contract corn at the bottom; for arbitrage, expand the spread between November corn and starch; for options, take a wait - and - see approach [25][26][27] Live Pigs - **Relevant Information**: Live pig prices have slightly declined in some regions; piglet and sow prices have changed; agricultural product wholesale price indices and pork prices are provided [29] - **Logic Analysis**: The supply of live pigs has slightly improved, but the future supply pressure is expected to increase, with obvious near - term pressure [31] - **Strategy Suggestion**: For unilateral trading, buy far - month contracts at low prices; for arbitrage, conduct LH91 reverse arbitrage; for options, take a wait - and - see approach [32] Peanuts - **Important Information**: Peanut prices in different regions are provided; most oil mills are in a shutdown state, waiting for new peanuts; peanut oil and peanut meal prices are stable [33] - **Logic Analysis**: Peanut prices are stable in the short - term, but the new - season supply is expected to be sufficient due to the expected increase in planting area [35] - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, short the October peanut contract at high prices and currently wait and see; for arbitrage, take a wait - and - see approach; for options, sell the pk510 - C - 8300 option [36][37][38] Eggs - **Important Information**: Egg prices in the main production and sales areas have declined; the number of laying hens in production has increased; egg sales volume has decreased; inventory has increased; and profit has changed [40][41][42] - **Trading Logic**: The supply of eggs is high, and the short - term bearish logic holds [43] - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, short at high prices; for arbitrage, short near - month contracts before the Spring Festival and long far - month contracts after the Spring Festival; for options, sell out - of - the - money call options [43][46][47] Apples - **Important Information**: Apple inventory in the main production areas has decreased; import and export volumes have changed; apple prices are stable, and the profit of apple storage has declined [49][50][51] - **Trading Logic**: The current apple inventory is low, the demand is in the off - season, and the new - season production is expected to be similar to this season. The price is expected to fluctuate widely in the short - term [53] - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, expect wide - range fluctuations; for arbitrage and options, take a wait - and - see approach [54][55] Cotton - Cotton Yarn - **External Market Impact**: ICE US cotton fell, with the主力 contract falling 0.06 (0.09%) to 67.47 cents per pound [56] - **Important Information**: Indian cotton weekly and cumulative listing volumes are provided; CFTC data shows the change in unfixed call sales of ICE cotton [57][58] - **Trading Logic**: The short - term impact of tariffs may weaken, and the supply of cotton is tight. The demand is expected to improve in August. Cotton prices are expected to be slightly stronger in the short - term [59] - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, expect a slightly stronger trend with limited upside; for arbitrage and options, take a wait - and - see approach [60]

Report Industry Investment Rating The provided text does not mention the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Soybean Oil**: The soybean oil market is in a "weak reality + strong expectation" pattern. The weak reality is reflected in high inventory and slow sales in the spot market, while the strong expectation is shown by fewer purchases in the fourth quarter, export drive, possible slowdown in oil mill crushing, and impending inventory reduction. Short - term callback space is expected to be limited, and it is still bullish in the medium - to - long - term. Consider 1 - 5 positive spread operations [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: China's temporary anti - dumping measures on Canadian rapeseed may reduce domestic purchases from Canada. However, domestic rapeseed oil inventory is seasonally high, and traders are importing from other countries as a supplement. The price is expected to fluctuate, with limited room for further decline [1]. - **Palm Oil**: Malaysian palm oil production growth has slowed, and export demand is good. Domestic inventory has increased, and the basis is under short - term pressure. There is a short - term adjustment need, but support exists. Hold partial long positions after partial profit - taking [2]. - **Soybean No. 2 and Soybean Meal**: The possible soybean reserve release and US soybean import rotation (unconfirmed) have led to a decline in soybean No. 2 and soybean meal. Soybean meal is in a "weak reality + strong expectation" situation, and the short - term decline is limited. Consider going long after stabilization [2]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The expected reduction in Canadian rapeseed imports and weak consumption have led to a decline in rapeseed meal prices. However, there is still an expectation of inventory reduction in the long - term. It is recommended to wait and see or go long at low prices [2]. - **Corn and Corn Starch**: The prices are expected to continue to be under pressure due to factors such as abundant supply from South America, increased US planting area, and continuous release of imported corn. It is recommended to hold short positions cautiously [4]. - **Soybean No. 1**: New domestic soybeans are gradually coming onto the market, increasing supply. The price is expected to be under pressure, but downstream replenishment during the back - to - school season may provide support. Hold short positions [5]. - **Peanuts**: The new season is expected to have increased production and lower costs, putting pressure on prices. Consider holding short positions for the 11 - contract [6]. - **Hogs**: The implementation of new regulations may affect cross - provincial transportation and increase secondary fattening costs. The short - term price is expected to fluctuate, and it is recommended to hold long positions for the 11 - contract and consider long - term long positions after capacity reduction is confirmed [6]. - **Eggs**: The current price is at a low level, and consumption is in the off - season. After the cost collapse risk is partially released, it is recommended to wait and see for the 09 - contract and consider going long for the 11 - contract at low prices [7]. Summary by Directory First Part: Sector Strategy Recommendations 1. Market Judgment - **Oilseeds**: Soybean No. 1 11 - contract is expected to fluctuate, hold short positions; Soybean No. 2 09 - contract is expected to fluctuate and adjust, wait and see; Peanut 11 - contract is expected to be bearish, hold short positions; Soybean oil 01 - contract is expected to fluctuate and adjust, wait and see [10]. - **Oils**: Rapeseed oil 01 - contract is expected to fluctuate and adjust, wait and see; Palm 01 - contract is expected to be bullish, reduce long positions [10]. - **Proteins**: Soybean meal 01 - contract is expected to fluctuate and adjust, wait and see; Rapeseed meal 01 - contract is expected to fluctuate within a range, go long at low prices [10]. - **Energy and By - products**: Corn 11 - contract is expected to be bearish, hold short positions cautiously; Starch 11 - contract is expected to be bearish, hold short positions cautiously [10]. - **Livestock Farming**: Hog 11 - contract is expected to rebound, hold long positions; Egg 10 - contract is expected to find a bottom, wait and see [10]. 2. Commodity Arbitrage - **Oilseeds**: For soybean No. 1 9 - 1, soybean No. 2 9 - 1, and peanut 10 - 11, wait and see; For soybean meal 3 - 5, conduct positive spread operations [11][12]. - **Oils**: For soybean oil 9 - 1, rapeseed oil 9 - 1, and palm oil 9 - 1, wait and see; For 09 soybean oil - palm oil, conduct bearish operations; For 09 rapeseed oil - soybean oil, conduct bullish operations; For 09 rapeseed oil - palm oil, wait and see [12]. - **Proteins**: For 09 soybean meal - rapeseed meal, it is in a low - level oscillation; For 09 soybean oil - meal ratio, go long; For 09 rapeseed oil - meal ratio, wait and see [12]. - **Energy and By - products**: For 11 starch - corn, wait and see [12]. - **Livestock Farming**: For hog 9 - 1 and egg 9 - 1, conduct positive spread operations at low prices [12]. 3. Basis and Spot - Futures Strategies The report provides spot prices, price changes, and basis changes for various commodities such as soybean No. 1, soybean No. 2, peanuts, etc., which can be used for basis and spot - futures trading analysis [13]. Second Part: Key Data Tracking Table 1. Oils and Oilseeds - **Daily Data**: It shows the import cost data of soybeans, rapeseeds, and palm oil from different origins and different shipping dates, including to - shore premium, futures prices, CNF prices, and import duty - paid prices [15]. - **Weekly Data**: Presents the inventory and operating rates of beans, rapeseeds, palm oil, and peanuts, such as soybean port inventory, oil mill soybean meal inventory, etc. [17]. 2. Feed - **Daily Data**: Provides the import cost data of corn from Argentina and Brazil in different months [17]. - **Weekly Data**: Shows the consumption, inventory, operating rate, and inventory of corn and corn starch in deep - processing enterprises [18]. 3. Livestock Farming - **Daily Data**: Displays the daily data of hogs and eggs, including spot prices, price changes, and basis in different regions [19][20]. - **Weekly Data**: Presents the weekly key data of hogs and eggs, such as breeding costs, profits, slaughter data, and supply - demand data [21][22][23]. Third Part: Fundamental Tracking Charts - **Livestock Farming (Hogs and Eggs)**: Includes charts of hog and egg futures prices, spot prices, and related prices such as piglet prices, chicken苗 prices, etc. [25][27][28][30][32][33][34]. - **Oils and Oilseeds**: - **Palm Oil**: Charts show Malaysian palm oil production, exports, inventory, import profit, domestic inventory, and price spreads [36][38][39]. - **Soybean Oil**: Charts display US soybean crushing volume, soybean oil inventory, domestic oil mill operating rate, and inventory [48][50][51]. - **Peanuts**: Charts present peanut arrival, shipment, processing profit, and inventory [53][54]. - **Feed**: - **Corn**: Charts show corn futures prices, spot prices, inventory, import volume, and processing profit [57][58]. - **Corn Starch**: Charts display corn starch futures prices, spot prices, operating rate, inventory, and processing profit [60][61]. - **Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil**: Charts show rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil spot prices, basis, inventory, and processing profit [63][65][67][69]. - **Soybean Meal**: Charts present US soybean growth rates, domestic soybean and soybean meal inventory [71]. Fourth Part: Options Situation of Soybean Meal, Feed, Livestock Farming, and Oils It shows the historical volatility of various commodities such as rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, soybean oil, palm oil, and peanuts, as well as the trading volume, open interest, and put - call ratio of corn options [73][74]. Fifth Part: Warehouse Receipt Situation of Feed, Livestock Farming, and Oils Presents the warehouse receipt data of rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, soybean oil, palm oil, peanuts, corn, corn starch, hogs, and eggs [76][77][78].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report provides daily strategy recommendations for feed, breeding, and oil industries, including market analysis, support and resistance levels, and trading strategies for various commodities such as soybeans, palm oil, and livestock [3][4][5]. - It also presents data on import costs, inventory, and operating rates for these industries, as well as charts for tracking market fundamentals and option volatility [16][18][80]. Summary by Directory Part I: Sector Strategy Recommendations 1. Market Analysis - **Oilseeds**: Soybean No. 1 09 contract is expected to fluctuate strongly, while soybean No. 2 09 contract will adjust. Peanut 10 contract is likely to decline. Long positions in soybean oil 01 contract can be held [11]. - **Oils**: Rapeseed oil 09 contract will fluctuate within a range, and long positions can be taken at low levels. Palm oil 09 contract is expected to rise, and long positions should be held [11]. - **Protein**: Soybean meal 09 contract is expected to fall, and long positions should be closed. Rapeseed meal 09 contract will decline, and long positions should be exited [11]. - **Energy and By - products**: Corn 09 and starch 09 contracts will fluctuate, and short positions can be reduced at low levels [11]. - **Livestock**: Pig 09 contract will rebound, and long positions can be reduced at high levels. Egg 09 contract will bottom - hunt, and long positions can be taken at low levels [11]. 2. Commodity Arbitrage - For most cross - period and cross - variety arbitrage, the recommended strategy is to wait and see. However, for some, such as soybean meal 11 - 1, a positive spread strategy is recommended, and for pig 9 - 1 and egg 9 - 1, a positive spread strategy at low levels is suggested [12][13]. 3. Basis and Spot - Futures Strategies - The report provides spot prices, price changes, and basis information for various commodities in different sectors, including oilseeds, oils, protein, energy and by - products, and livestock [14]. Part II: Key Data Tracking Table 1. Oils and Oilseeds - **Daily Data**: It includes import cost data for soybeans from different origins and shipping dates, rapeseeds, and palm oil [16]. - **Weekly Data**: It shows inventory and operating rate data for beans, rapeseeds, palm oil, and peanuts [18]. 2. Feed - **Daily Data**: Import cost data for corn from Argentina and Brazil are provided [18]. - **Weekly Data**: Data on corn consumption, inventory, starch enterprise operating rate, and inventory are presented [19]. 3. Breeding - It provides daily and weekly data on the pig and egg markets, including prices, costs, profits, and inventory [20][22][24]. Part III: Fundamental Tracking Charts - **Breeding End**: Charts for tracking the closing prices of pig and egg futures contracts, as well as spot prices, are provided [25][29]. - **Oils and Oilseeds**: Charts for palm oil, soybean oil, and peanuts, including production, exports, inventory, and trading volume, are presented [34][47][54]. - **Feed End**: Charts for corn, corn starch, rapeseed meal, and soybean meal, including inventory, consumption, and processing profits, are shown [58][64][72]. Part IV: Option Situation for Soybean Meal, Feed, Breeding, and Oils - Charts for historical volatility of rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, soybean oil, palm oil, and peanuts, as well as option trading volume and open interest for corn, are provided [80]. Part V: Warehouse Receipt Situation for Feed, Breeding, and Oils - Charts for warehouse receipts of rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, soybean oil, palm oil, peanuts, corn, corn starch, pigs, and eggs are presented [83].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The cost of imported soybeans is likely to rise, and the supply - demand situation of soybean meal is expected to improve after August, suggesting a long - position strategy for soybean meal futures [1][18]. - Palm oil may experience a short - term correction, but a long - position strategy is recommended in the medium - to - long term [1][18]. - New - crop corn is likely to face seasonal selling pressure, and a short - position strategy is advised [1][18]. - The upward momentum of cotton prices is limited, and short - position and arbitrage strategies are recommended [2][18]. - Short - to - medium - term: Long soybean meal 09 and rapeseed meal 09; short egg 09, corn 11, and cotton 01. Medium - to - long - term: Long soybean meal and palm oil on dips; short live hogs on rallies [3][87][88]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1上期策略回顾 - Corn: The price performance in the past two months was generally in line with expectations. After July, the price of corn futures accelerated its decline [13]. - Oils: The "YP09 spread narrowing" strategy performed well from mid - May to mid - July [14]. - Strength - weakness allocation strategy: In the one - month period until June 13, the multi - short allocation portfolio was profitable by 5.7% [15]. 3.2本期策略推荐 3.2.1单边策略 - Soybean meal: Bullish in 3 - 6 months. Consider long positions in M2509 and M2601 on dips, with stop - loss levels at 2850 and 2950 respectively [18]. - Palm oil: Bearish in 1 month. Consider short positions in the 09 contract, with a profit - taking level at 8500 and a stop - loss level at 8800 [18]. - Corn: Bearish in 3 - 5 months. Consider short positions in the 11 contract on rallies, with a stop - loss above 2350 and a profit - taking level around 2100 [18]. - Cotton: Bearish in 3 - 5 months. Consider short positions in the January contract around 14000 yuan/ton, with a profit - taking level at 13000 - 13200 and a stop - loss level at 14300 - 14500 [18]. 3.2.2套利策略 - P2509 - P2601: Consider a reverse arbitrage strategy. Set the profit - taking level at - 50 to - 100 and the stop - loss level at 100 [20]. - CF2511 - CF2601: Consider a reverse arbitrage strategy. Set the profit - taking level at - 300 (for non - delivery funds) and the stop - loss level at 50 [20]. 3.2.3推荐策略逻辑详述及相关指标跟踪 - Soybean meal: The cost of imported soybeans in the fourth quarter is unlikely to drop significantly, and the supply - demand situation of soybean meal will improve. Key indicators include Brazilian export CNF premiums and China's monthly soybean imports [21]. - Oils: Palm oil may face a short - term correction as the growth in production picks up in July. However, its downward space is limited due to its cost - effectiveness. Key indicators include China's palm oil inventory and international soybean - palm oil spreads [32]. - Corn: The supply - demand gap in the 25/26 season is likely to shrink. If the old - crop gap is revised downwards, the new - crop price may decline earlier and more significantly. Key indicators include northern port corn inventories and deep - processing enterprise corn inventory - consumption ratios [39]. - Cotton: The upward momentum of cotton prices is limited due to factors such as weak downstream demand and high - cost resource release. The January contract faces heavy hedging pressure. Key indicators include domestic cotton commercial inventories and Zhengzhou cotton 9 - month contract positions [51]. 3.3农产品品种间强弱排序 3.3.1农产品各主要品种观点 - Soybean meal and rapeseed meal: Bullish in the long term, but the upward drive is uncertain in the short term. It is advisable to go long on dips [68][83]. - Palm oil: May face a short - term correction, but long - position strategy is recommended in the medium - to - long term [68]. - Corn: Bearish in the medium - to - long term due to the expected reduction in the supply - demand gap [68][70]. - Cotton: The upward space is limited, and short - position and arbitrage strategies are recommended [71][86]. - Sugar: The international market is in a bearish cycle, and the domestic market is expected to be weak in the third quarter and may have a phased rebound in the fourth quarter [70]. - Livestock and poultry: The supply of live hogs and eggs is expected to be loose in the second half of the year, and short - position strategies are recommended in the medium - to - long term [70]. 3.3.2主要指标跟踪 - **资金面动态**: In the past month, the agricultural futures sector had a net inflow of funds, with palm oil and soybean oil leading in terms of capital inflow, while corn and rapeseed oil had the largest net outflows [74]. - **各品种基差及基差率（2025年7月14日）**: The basis and basis rate of each agricultural product variety are provided, which can help investors understand the price relationship between futures and spot markets [78]. - **农产品期货强弱排序及多空配置策略**: Short - to - medium - term: Long soybean meal 09 and rapeseed meal 09; short egg 09, corn 11, and cotton 01. Medium - to - long - term: Long soybean meal and palm oil on dips; short live hogs on rallies [87][88].

Group 1: Agricultural Futures Market Overview - The soybean market is experiencing low prices due to reduced demand and limited trading activity, with the 09 contract facing resistance at 4235 - 4250 CNY/ton and support at 4080 - 4100 CNY/ton [1] - The peanut market is under pressure from increased planting areas in Henan, Jilin, and Liaoning, with the 10 contract support at 8004 - 8020 CNY and resistance at 8380 - 8392 CNY [1] - The soybean oil market is seeing a decline in prices due to weak demand and sufficient supply, with the 09 contract facing resistance at 8100 - 8130 CNY and support at 7830 - 7850 CNY/ton [1] Group 2: Oilseed and Meal Markets - The canola oil market is affected by falling crude oil prices and increased domestic supply, with the 09 contract support at 9210 - 9320 CNY and resistance at 9600 - 9790 CNY [1] - The palm oil market is experiencing adjustments due to rising inventories and reduced export demand, with support at 8200 - 8210 CNY and resistance at 8566 - 8592 CNY [1] - The soybean meal market is seeing a weak domestic fundamental outlook, with the 09 contract resistance at 3100 - 3150 CNY and support at 2880 - 2900 CNY/ton [1] Group 3: Corn and Livestock Markets - The corn market is under pressure from increased supply and import auction focus, with the 09 contract support at 2330 - 2340 CNY and resistance at 2430 - 2450 CNY [1] - The live pig market is experiencing increased supply, with the 09 contract reference range at 13600 - 14200 points [1] - The egg market is seeing a potential rebound after a low, with strategies suggested for the 08 contract [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The agricultural products sector shows mixed trends. Cotton and sugar prices are rising, while hog prices are falling. Other products such as soybean meal, palm oil, etc., also have their own specific market conditions and price trends [1]. Summary by Variety Cotton - The cotton main 2509 contract soared. Positive factors include the substantial progress of Sino - US economic and trade talks, domestic macro - benefits, and a decline in port inventory. However, the textile industry is in the off - season, and demand is mainly for rigid needs. The strategy is to hold light long positions, with support at 13100 and resistance at 13300 [2][3]. Sugar - The sugar main 2509 contract rose strongly. Overseas market price increases and strong domestic demand (April sales rate reached a 25 - year high) boosted the price. The strategy is to close short positions, with support at 5859 and resistance at 5900 [4][8]. Soybean Meal - The soybean meal main 2509 contract fluctuated, first falling and then rising, but the downward trend remained. The increase in domestic soybean imports and inventory put pressure on prices. The strategy is to hold light short positions on rallies, with support at 2865 and resistance at 2912 [7]. Palm Oil - The palm oil main 2509 contract rebounded, driven by the strengthening of crude oil. However, the increase in production and inventory in Malaysia and the expected increase in domestic supply limit the rebound space. The strategy is to hold short positions, with support at 7940 and resistance at 8076 [9]. Soybean No.1 - The soybean No.1 main 2507 contract rebounded and fluctuated. Although there is support from less remaining beans in the Northeast, weak demand and the expected increase in imported soybeans limit the rebound space. The strategy is to hold short positions, with support at 4127 and resistance at 4185 [11]. Soybean Oil - The soybean oil main 2509 contract fluctuated upward, driven by the strengthening of crude oil. However, the increase in imported soybeans and inventory may limit the upward space. The strategy is for short - term trading, with support at 7762 and resistance at 7852 [14]. Corn - The corn main 2507 contract adjusted at a high level. Profit - taking and the expected increase in US corn imports put pressure on the price, but factors such as less remaining grain in the producing area and strong demand limit the adjustment space. The strategy is to close long positions, with support at 2360 and resistance at 2389 [15][17]. Hog - The hog 2509 contract continued to decline weakly. High inventory and weak demand led to the downward trend. The strategy is to short on rallies, with support at 13800 and resistance at 13930 [18]. Egg - The egg main 2506 contract rebounded. Spot price increases due to补货 demand and approaching festivals supported the rebound, but high egg - laying hen inventory limits the rebound space. The strategy is to close short positions, with support at 2898 and resistance at 2940 [20]. Apple - The apple main 2510 contract rebounded slightly. Although the inventory is at a five - year low, the slowdown in sales and uncertain fruit - setting conditions due to abnormal weather make the market trend uncertain. The strategy is to close short positions, with support at 7800 and resistance at 7903 [22].