大宗商品研究所 农产品研发报告 每日早盘观察 2025 年 8 月 22 日 公众号二维码 银河农产品及衍生品 粕猪研究：陈界正 期货从业证号：F3045719 投资咨询证号：Z0015458 CBOT 大豆指数上涨 0.73%至 1067.25 美分/蒲，CBOT 豆粕指数上涨 0.17%至 296.6 美金/短吨 【相关资讯】 1.USDA：美国 2024/2025 年度大豆出口净销售为-0.6 万吨，前一周为-37.8 万 吨；2025/2026 年度大豆净销售 114.3 万吨，前一周为 113.3 万吨。美国 2024/2025 年度豆粕出口净销售为 4.6 万吨，前一周为 2.6 万吨；2025/2026 年度豆粕净销售 17.6 万吨，前一周为 24.7 万吨。 2.Pro Farmer： 预计 2025 年爱荷华州 D7 区域大豆平均结荚数为 1562.54 个， 2024 年作物巡查为 1366.22 个，D4 区域大豆平均结荚数为 1376.15 个，2024 年作物 巡查为 1254.09 个，D1 区域大豆平均结荚数为 1279.25 个，2024 年作物巡查为 1108.76 个，伊 ...

农产品团队 | 作者： | 王亮亮 | | --- | --- | | 从业资格证号： | F03096306 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0017427 | | 联系方式： | 010-68578697 | | 作者： | 侯芝芳 | | 从业资格证号： | F3042058 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0014216 | | 联系方式： | 010-68578922 | | 作者： | 王一博 | | 从业资格证号： | F3083334 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0018596 | | 联系方式： | 010-68578169 | | 作者： | 宋从志 | | 从业资格证号： | F03095512 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0020712 | | 联系方式： | 18001936153 | 期货研究院 养殖油脂产业链日度策略报告 摘要 豆油：油脂供应充足，豆油价格继续低开低走。主要原因在于市场 尚未证实的消息称可能会有600万吨大豆抛储并进口美豆轮换（消 息尚未证实）。中美、中加贸易关系依旧严峻，市场对于四季度油 籽供应存在担忧。目前豆油市场处于"弱现实+强预期"格局，弱 现实主要表现为 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report provides daily strategy recommendations for feed, breeding, and oil industries, including market analysis, support and resistance levels, and trading strategies for various commodities such as soybeans, palm oil, and livestock [3][4][5]. - It also presents data on import costs, inventory, and operating rates for these industries, as well as charts for tracking market fundamentals and option volatility [16][18][80]. Summary by Directory Part I: Sector Strategy Recommendations 1. Market Analysis - **Oilseeds**: Soybean No. 1 09 contract is expected to fluctuate strongly, while soybean No. 2 09 contract will adjust. Peanut 10 contract is likely to decline. Long positions in soybean oil 01 contract can be held [11]. - **Oils**: Rapeseed oil 09 contract will fluctuate within a range, and long positions can be taken at low levels. Palm oil 09 contract is expected to rise, and long positions should be held [11]. - **Protein**: Soybean meal 09 contract is expected to fall, and long positions should be closed. Rapeseed meal 09 contract will decline, and long positions should be exited [11]. - **Energy and By - products**: Corn 09 and starch 09 contracts will fluctuate, and short positions can be reduced at low levels [11]. - **Livestock**: Pig 09 contract will rebound, and long positions can be reduced at high levels. Egg 09 contract will bottom - hunt, and long positions can be taken at low levels [11]. 2. Commodity Arbitrage - For most cross - period and cross - variety arbitrage, the recommended strategy is to wait and see. However, for some, such as soybean meal 11 - 1, a positive spread strategy is recommended, and for pig 9 - 1 and egg 9 - 1, a positive spread strategy at low levels is suggested [12][13]. 3. Basis and Spot - Futures Strategies - The report provides spot prices, price changes, and basis information for various commodities in different sectors, including oilseeds, oils, protein, energy and by - products, and livestock [14]. Part II: Key Data Tracking Table 1. Oils and Oilseeds - **Daily Data**: It includes import cost data for soybeans from different origins and shipping dates, rapeseeds, and palm oil [16]. - **Weekly Data**: It shows inventory and operating rate data for beans, rapeseeds, palm oil, and peanuts [18]. 2. Feed - **Daily Data**: Import cost data for corn from Argentina and Brazil are provided [18]. - **Weekly Data**: Data on corn consumption, inventory, starch enterprise operating rate, and inventory are presented [19]. 3. Breeding - It provides daily and weekly data on the pig and egg markets, including prices, costs, profits, and inventory [20][22][24]. Part III: Fundamental Tracking Charts - **Breeding End**: Charts for tracking the closing prices of pig and egg futures contracts, as well as spot prices, are provided [25][29]. - **Oils and Oilseeds**: Charts for palm oil, soybean oil, and peanuts, including production, exports, inventory, and trading volume, are presented [34][47][54]. - **Feed End**: Charts for corn, corn starch, rapeseed meal, and soybean meal, including inventory, consumption, and processing profits, are shown [58][64][72]. Part IV: Option Situation for Soybean Meal, Feed, Breeding, and Oils - Charts for historical volatility of rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, soybean oil, palm oil, and peanuts, as well as option trading volume and open interest for corn, are provided [80]. Part V: Warehouse Receipt Situation for Feed, Breeding, and Oils - Charts for warehouse receipts of rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, soybean oil, palm oil, peanuts, corn, corn starch, pigs, and eggs are presented [83].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The cost of imported soybeans is likely to rise, and the supply - demand situation of soybean meal is expected to improve after August, suggesting a long - position strategy for soybean meal futures [1][18]. - Palm oil may experience a short - term correction, but a long - position strategy is recommended in the medium - to - long term [1][18]. - New - crop corn is likely to face seasonal selling pressure, and a short - position strategy is advised [1][18]. - The upward momentum of cotton prices is limited, and short - position and arbitrage strategies are recommended [2][18]. - Short - to - medium - term: Long soybean meal 09 and rapeseed meal 09; short egg 09, corn 11, and cotton 01. Medium - to - long - term: Long soybean meal and palm oil on dips; short live hogs on rallies [3][87][88]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1上期策略回顾 - Corn: The price performance in the past two months was generally in line with expectations. After July, the price of corn futures accelerated its decline [13]. - Oils: The "YP09 spread narrowing" strategy performed well from mid - May to mid - July [14]. - Strength - weakness allocation strategy: In the one - month period until June 13, the multi - short allocation portfolio was profitable by 5.7% [15]. 3.2本期策略推荐 3.2.1单边策略 - Soybean meal: Bullish in 3 - 6 months. Consider long positions in M2509 and M2601 on dips, with stop - loss levels at 2850 and 2950 respectively [18]. - Palm oil: Bearish in 1 month. Consider short positions in the 09 contract, with a profit - taking level at 8500 and a stop - loss level at 8800 [18]. - Corn: Bearish in 3 - 5 months. Consider short positions in the 11 contract on rallies, with a stop - loss above 2350 and a profit - taking level around 2100 [18]. - Cotton: Bearish in 3 - 5 months. Consider short positions in the January contract around 14000 yuan/ton, with a profit - taking level at 13000 - 13200 and a stop - loss level at 14300 - 14500 [18]. 3.2.2套利策略 - P2509 - P2601: Consider a reverse arbitrage strategy. Set the profit - taking level at - 50 to - 100 and the stop - loss level at 100 [20]. - CF2511 - CF2601: Consider a reverse arbitrage strategy. Set the profit - taking level at - 300 (for non - delivery funds) and the stop - loss level at 50 [20]. 3.2.3推荐策略逻辑详述及相关指标跟踪 - Soybean meal: The cost of imported soybeans in the fourth quarter is unlikely to drop significantly, and the supply - demand situation of soybean meal will improve. Key indicators include Brazilian export CNF premiums and China's monthly soybean imports [21]. - Oils: Palm oil may face a short - term correction as the growth in production picks up in July. However, its downward space is limited due to its cost - effectiveness. Key indicators include China's palm oil inventory and international soybean - palm oil spreads [32]. - Corn: The supply - demand gap in the 25/26 season is likely to shrink. If the old - crop gap is revised downwards, the new - crop price may decline earlier and more significantly. Key indicators include northern port corn inventories and deep - processing enterprise corn inventory - consumption ratios [39]. - Cotton: The upward momentum of cotton prices is limited due to factors such as weak downstream demand and high - cost resource release. The January contract faces heavy hedging pressure. Key indicators include domestic cotton commercial inventories and Zhengzhou cotton 9 - month contract positions [51]. 3.3农产品品种间强弱排序 3.3.1农产品各主要品种观点 - Soybean meal and rapeseed meal: Bullish in the long term, but the upward drive is uncertain in the short term. It is advisable to go long on dips [68][83]. - Palm oil: May face a short - term correction, but long - position strategy is recommended in the medium - to - long term [68]. - Corn: Bearish in the medium - to - long term due to the expected reduction in the supply - demand gap [68][70]. - Cotton: The upward space is limited, and short - position and arbitrage strategies are recommended [71][86]. - Sugar: The international market is in a bearish cycle, and the domestic market is expected to be weak in the third quarter and may have a phased rebound in the fourth quarter [70]. - Livestock and poultry: The supply of live hogs and eggs is expected to be loose in the second half of the year, and short - position strategies are recommended in the medium - to - long term [70]. 3.3.2主要指标跟踪 - **资金面动态**: In the past month, the agricultural futures sector had a net inflow of funds, with palm oil and soybean oil leading in terms of capital inflow, while corn and rapeseed oil had the largest net outflows [74]. - **各品种基差及基差率（2025年7月14日）**: The basis and basis rate of each agricultural product variety are provided, which can help investors understand the price relationship between futures and spot markets [78]. - **农产品期货强弱排序及多空配置策略**: Short - to - medium - term: Long soybean meal 09 and rapeseed meal 09; short egg 09, corn 11, and cotton 01. Medium - to - long - term: Long soybean meal and palm oil on dips; short live hogs on rallies [87][88].

Group 1: Agricultural Futures Market Overview - The soybean market is experiencing low prices due to reduced demand and limited trading activity, with the 09 contract facing resistance at 4235 - 4250 CNY/ton and support at 4080 - 4100 CNY/ton [1] - The peanut market is under pressure from increased planting areas in Henan, Jilin, and Liaoning, with the 10 contract support at 8004 - 8020 CNY and resistance at 8380 - 8392 CNY [1] - The soybean oil market is seeing a decline in prices due to weak demand and sufficient supply, with the 09 contract facing resistance at 8100 - 8130 CNY and support at 7830 - 7850 CNY/ton [1] Group 2: Oilseed and Meal Markets - The canola oil market is affected by falling crude oil prices and increased domestic supply, with the 09 contract support at 9210 - 9320 CNY and resistance at 9600 - 9790 CNY [1] - The palm oil market is experiencing adjustments due to rising inventories and reduced export demand, with support at 8200 - 8210 CNY and resistance at 8566 - 8592 CNY [1] - The soybean meal market is seeing a weak domestic fundamental outlook, with the 09 contract resistance at 3100 - 3150 CNY and support at 2880 - 2900 CNY/ton [1] Group 3: Corn and Livestock Markets - The corn market is under pressure from increased supply and import auction focus, with the 09 contract support at 2330 - 2340 CNY and resistance at 2430 - 2450 CNY [1] - The live pig market is experiencing increased supply, with the 09 contract reference range at 13600 - 14200 points [1] - The egg market is seeing a potential rebound after a low, with strategies suggested for the 08 contract [1]

一、农产品板块综述 棉花暴涨，中美经贸高层会谈取得实质性进展，后续或有利于纺 织品出口，同时国内宏观利好，加之棉花库存下降，皆支撑棉花期价 大幅走高，期价转入上行趋势。白糖劲升，受外盘上涨提振，国内白 糖产销两旺，4 月销糖率创 25 年来同期最高，加之消费旺季来临， 支撑糖价反抽，走势或转强。生猪下挫，存栏高位，大猪出栏增多， 供应压力增大，而猪肉需求平淡，加之替代品充足，生猪期价承压走 低，后市有望持续下行趋势。 二、品种策略跟踪 （一）棉花：暴涨 焦点关注：棉花主力 2509 合约在上周稳健反弹的基础上，周一 暴涨，期价受到中美经贸高层会谈取得实质性进展的利好提振： 1. 中美经贸高层会谈坦诚、深入、具有建设性，达成重要共识， 并取得实质性进展，利多提振棉花大幅上涨，若中美达成关税协议， 或有助于纺织品出口增加。加之国内宏观利好，央行降准降息，皆提 振市场情绪。另外进口棉花维持低位，国内港口库存下降至 6 个月低 点，亦对期价有支撑。 棉花暴涨、白糖劲升 2.目前纺织品行业淡季到来，纺企新增订单量萎缩，成品库存增 加，纺企开机稳中有降，纺企对棉花需求以刚需为主，关注后续纺企 订单变化以及开工情况。棉花期 ...