Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - For sugar, after the northern hemisphere finishes the sugar - crushing process in February and the bearish impact of increased production is mostly realized, international sugar prices may rebound. Currently, the supply of imported sugar in China is gradually decreasing, and the downward space for sugar prices in the short - term may be limited. It is advisable to wait and see for now [2][3][4] - For cotton, the February USDA monthly supply - demand report is neutral. After the Spring Festival, attention should be paid to the downstream operating rate and the new cotton target price policy that may be announced in March or April. It is recommended to try to go long at the lower edge of the oscillation range [6][8][10] - For protein meal, the expectation of China increasing soybean purchases from the US drives up the CBOT soybean price. For the domestic market, on one hand, the long - term supply pressure increases, and on the other hand, the import cost rises. It is expected that the protein meal price will continue to fluctuate in the short - term [12][13][14] - For oils and fats, driven by the bio - diesel policies of various countries, the consumption growth of oils and fats this year is greater than the production growth rate. The price of oils and fats is bullish in the medium - term. It is recommended to wait for a pull - back and then go long [16][18][19] - For eggs, the market is in the inventory - accumulation period around the Spring Festival. Under weak demand and high inventory, the spot price is likely to fall rather than rise, which drives the futures price down. The near - term contracts may still need to squeeze out the premium. It is recommended to maintain a short - selling strategy. The long - term contracts may trade the capacity reduction logic after the spot price turns, but the implementation path is uncertain. Pay attention to the pressure after the price rises. Before the Spring Festival, pay attention to risk control and keep a light position [20][21] - For pigs, the basic supply is large and the live - animal inventory is accumulating. The spot price and near - term expectations are pessimistic. The near - term may still be under pressure, and it is recommended to sell on rallies. The long - term capacity decline has been revised down, but there are still expectations of a high fat - to - standard price difference, seasonal support, and recovery of consumption demand. Pay attention to the support at the lower level after the price follows the decline. Before the Spring Festival, pay attention to risk control and keep a light position [23][24] Summary by Commodity Sugar Domestic - On Thursday, the domestic sugar spot price index dropped by 7 yuan/ton to 5,294 yuan/ton. In January, the sugar production was 263,000 tons, and the cumulative sugar production in the 2025/26 sugar - crushing season was 3.21 million tons, an increase of 120,000 tons year - on - year. As of the end of January, the cumulative national sugar production was 6.89 million tons, a decrease of 600,000 tons year - on - year. In January, the sugar sales volume was 1.13 million tons, a decrease of 100,000 tons year - on - year. The cumulative sales - to - production ratio was 39.1%, a decrease of 10.75 percentage points year - on - year. The industrial inventory was 4.19 million tons, an increase of 430,000 tons year - on - year. In December 2025, China imported 580,000 tons of sugar, an increase of 190,000 tons year - on - year. In 2025, the cumulative sugar imports were 4.92 million tons, an increase of 570,000 tons year - on - year. As of the end of December in the 2025/26 sugar - crushing season, the cumulative sugar imports were 1.77 million tons, an increase of 310,000 tons year - on - year. In December, the total imports of syrup and premixed powder were 69,700 tons, and the cumulative imports in 2025 were 1.1888 million tons [2] Foreign - According to UNICA data, as of the first half of January in the 2025/26 sugar - crushing season, the cumulative sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil was 40.23 million tons, an increase of 345,000 tons year - on - year. According to data from the Brazilian shipping agency Williams, as of the week of February 4, the quantity of sugar waiting to be shipped at Brazilian ports was 1.56 million tons, a decrease of 220,000 tons compared with the previous week. As of the end of January 2026 in the 2025/26 sugar - crushing season, the cumulative sugar production in India was 19.5 million tons, an increase of 2.97 million tons year - on - year; the cumulative sugar production in Thailand was 4.8 million tons, a decrease of 460,000 tons year - on - year [3] Cotton Domestic - On Thursday, the China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex) 3128B rose by 40 yuan/ton to 16,069 yuan/ton. As of February 6, the spinning mill operating rate was 60.5%, a decrease of 3.7 percentage points compared with the previous week. The national commercial cotton inventory was 5.52 million tons, a decrease of 120,000 tons compared with the previous week. In December 2025, China imported 180,000 tons of cotton, an increase of 40,000 tons year - on - year; the cumulative cotton imports in the 2025/26 season were 560,000 tons, a decrease of 70,000 tons year - on - year. In December 2025, China imported 170,000 tons of cotton yarn, an increase of 20,000 tons year - on - year; the cumulative cotton yarn imports in the 2025/26 season were 720,000 tons, an increase of 110,000 tons year - on - year [6] Foreign - From January 22 to January 29, the US current - year cotton export sales were 51,800 tons, and the cumulative export sales were 1.7722 million tons, a decrease of 194,900 tons year - on - year. Among them, the export to China in that week was 8,800 tons, and the cumulative export to China was 97,400 tons, a decrease of 66,000 tons year - on - year. The February USDA monthly supply - demand report was neutral. The February forecast for the 2025/26 global cotton production was 26.1 million tons, an increase of 100,000 tons compared with the January forecast and an increase of 300,000 tons compared with the previous year. The increase in production forecast came from China, with the February forecast for China's production being 7.62 million tons, an increase of 100,000 tons compared with the January forecast. The global consumption forecast was 25.85 million tons, a decrease of 40,000 tons compared with the January forecast and a decrease of 50,000 tons compared with the previous year. The global ending inventory forecast was 16.35 million tons, an increase of 130,000 tons compared with the January forecast and an increase of 290,000 tons compared with the previous year. The global inventory - to - consumption ratio forecast was 62.27%, an increase of 0.63 percentage points compared with the January forecast and an increase of 1.25 percentage points compared with the previous year. In other major producing countries, the US export volume forecast was reduced by 40,000 tons to 2.61 million tons compared with the January forecast, while the forecasts for China, Brazil, and India changed little [6][8][9] Protein Meal Domestic - On Thursday, the spot price of soybean meal in Dongguan was reported at 3,060 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day; the spot price of rapeseed meal in Huangpu was reported at 2,510 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. As of February 6, the arrival of domestic sample soybeans was 1.56 million tons, a decrease of 260,000 tons compared with the previous week; the sample soybean port inventory was 5.91 million tons, a decrease of 800,000 tons compared with the previous week and a decrease of 1.6 million tons year - on - year; the sample soybean meal inventory of oil mills was 900,000 tons, an increase of 40,000 tons compared with the previous week and an increase of 516,000 tons year - on - year [12] Foreign - The February USDA monthly supply - demand report was neutral. The February forecast for global soybean production was 428 million tons, an increase of 2.5 million tons compared with the January forecast and an increase of 1 million tons compared with the previous year. The global soybean consumption forecast was 424 million tons, an increase of 1.6 million tons compared with the January forecast and an increase of 11.24 million tons compared with the previous year. The global soybean ending inventory forecast was 125 million tons, an increase of 1.11 million tons compared with the January forecast and an increase of 2.12 million tons compared with the previous year. The global soybean inventory - to - consumption ratio forecast was 29.55%, an increase of 0.15 percentage points compared with the January forecast and a decrease of 0.29 percentage points compared with the previous year. In major producing countries, the production forecasts for the US and Argentina remained unchanged, and the production forecast for Brazil was increased by 2 million tons to 180 million tons compared with the January forecast. The US soybean export volume and China's soybean import volume forecasts remained unchanged. From January 22 to January 29, the US exported 440,000 tons of soybeans, and the current - year cumulative soybean exports were 34.29 million tons, a decrease of 8.27 million tons year - on - year. Among them, the export of soybeans to China in that week was 230,000 tons, and the current - year cumulative export of soybeans to China was 9.89 million tons, a decrease of 10.33 million tons year - on - year [13] Oils and Fats Domestic - On Thursday, the spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Zhangjiagang was reported at 8,560 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; the spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was reported at 8,900 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was reported at 9,920 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. As of February 6, the inventory of the three major oils in domestic sample data was 1.92 million tons, an increase of 30,000 tons compared with the previous week and a decrease of 30,000 tons compared with the same period last year. Among them, the sample palm oil inventory was 726,700 tons, an increase of 25,300 tons compared with the previous week and an increase of 264,900 tons compared with the same period last year; the sample soybean oil inventory was 960,000 tons, an increase of 13,000 tons compared with the previous week and an increase of 73,400 tons compared with the same period last year; the sample rapeseed oil inventory was 240,000 tons, a decrease of 6,000 tons compared with the previous week and a decrease of 369,800 tons compared with the same period last year [16] Foreign - According to data released by MPOB, the palm oil production in Malaysia in January was 1.58 million tons, a decrease of 250,000 tons compared with the previous month and an increase of 340,000 tons compared with the same period last year. The export volume in January was 1.48 million tons, an increase of 160,000 tons compared with the previous month and an increase of 320,000 tons compared with the same period last year. The inventory in January was 2.82 million tons, a decrease of 230,000 tons compared with the previous month and an increase of 1.24 million tons compared with the same period last year. According to data from ITS, from February 1 to 10, 2026, the export volume of Malaysian palm oil was 451,000 tons, a decrease of 10.5% compared with the same period in January. According to data from AmSpec, from February 1 - 10, the export volume of Malaysian palm oil was 399,000 tons, a decrease of 14.2% compared with the same period in January. According to Indonesian customs data, Indonesia exported 2.79 million tons of palm oil in January, an increase of 1.36 million tons compared with the previous month and an increase of 900,000 tons year - on - year. According to USDA data, the February forecast for the 2025/26 Malaysian palm oil production was 20.2 million tons, an increase of 500,000 tons compared with the January forecast; the production forecast for Indonesia remained unchanged at 46.7 million tons. In other aspects, the US soybean oil consumption forecast remained unchanged, and the Canadian rapeseed production forecast remained unchanged [16][18] Eggs - Near the Spring Festival, the market trading volume decreased. Most markets had no mainstream trading prices. The Xinji market remained stable at 2.67 yuan/jin, and the Dongguan market rose by 0.24 yuan to 3.43 yuan/jin. It is expected that today's egg prices will mainly stop reporting or remain stable [20] Pigs - Yesterday, domestic pig prices showed mixed trends. The average price in Henan rose by 0.24 yuan to 12.18 yuan/kg, and the average price in Sichuan remained unchanged at 10.8 yuan/kg. Near the Spring Festival, the slaughter volume of the breeding side gradually decreased, and a small number of slaughtering enterprises stopped work. The trading volume in the pig market decreased. It is expected that today's pig prices may remain stable [23]

Report Industry Investment Rating No mention in the report Core Viewpoints - For sugar, the current raw sugar price has fallen below the support of the Brazilian ethanol conversion price. After the start of the new Brazilian sugar - cane crushing season in April this year, there is a possibility of reducing the sugar - cane - to - sugar ratio. After the northern hemisphere starts to finish the sugar - cane crushing in February and the negative impact of increased production is basically realized, the international sugar price may rebound. The supply of imported sugar in China is gradually decreasing, and the short - term downward space of sugar price may be limited. It is advisable to wait and see for now [4] - For cotton, in the medium - to - long - term, with the reduction of the planting area in the new year and the positive macro - economic outlook, there is still room for cotton price to rise. Attention should be paid to the opportunity of low - buying before the Spring Festival [8] - For protein meal, affected by the sudden news from Canada, the price of rapeseed meal rebounded. The January USDA report data is slightly bearish, but the overall balance sheet is still better than that of the 2024/25 season. From the weekly sample data, the domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories decreased month - on - month. The short - term fundamentals are improving, and the protein meal price may be bottoming out [12] - For oils and fats, affected by the sudden news from Canada and the year - on - year decline in Malaysian palm oil production in January, the price of oils and fats rose significantly yesterday. In addition, the inventory of the three major domestic oils and fats has been decreasing month - on - month. The short - term fundamentals are improving. Wait for a pullback and then try to go long [17] - For eggs, the pre - festival stocking sentiment has boosted the spot price increase beyond expectations. The near - month contracts are driven to fluctuate strongly, but the overall supply is still abundant, and the demand is about to meet expectations. The near - month contracts have post - festival attributes and may fluctuate mainly. In the future, more attention should be paid to the pressure after the rebound. The far - end has a long - term positive expectation due to the peak of production capacity, but after the profit is given too early, the realization path is still uncertain. Pay attention to the selling pressure after the over - valuation [19] - For pigs, the demand support and the market's reluctance to sell due to the high fat - to - standard price difference support the limited short - term decline of the spot price. However, the expectation of inventory accumulation and the upcoming pre - festival supply release lead to the early weakening of the futures market. Considering the large supply pressure after the Spring Festival in the first half of the year and the expectation of inventory postponement, the futures discount is logical. There may still be short - selling opportunities after the rebound. Due to the limited reduction of production capacity, the improvement space of the far - end fundamentals is revised down. Pay attention to the lower support after the long - term decline [22] Summary by Commodity Sugar - **Market Information**: On Thursday, the Zhengzhou sugar futures price rebounded. The closing price of the May contract of Zhengzhou sugar was 5,257 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan/ton or 1.35% from the previous trading day. The quotation of Guangxi sugar - making groups was 5,290 - 5,370 yuan/ton, up 40 - 50 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. In the second half of December 2025, the central - southern region of Brazil crushed 2.171 million tons of sugar - cane, a year - on - year increase of 26.60%. The sugar output was 56,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 14.93%. The sugar - cane - to - sugar ratio was 21.24%, a decrease of 11.28 percentage points compared with the same period last year. In December 2025, China imported 580,000 tons of sugar, an increase of 190,000 tons year - on - year. In 2025, China's cumulative sugar imports were 4.92 million tons, an increase of 570,000 tons year - on - year. As of the end of December in the 2025/26 sugar - cane crushing season, China's cumulative sugar imports were 1.77 million tons, an increase of 310,000 tons year - on - year. In December, China imported a total of 69,700 tons of syrup and premixed powder. In 2025, the cumulative imports were 1.1888 million tons. As of January 15, 2026, India's national sugar output reached 15.909 million tons, a year - on - year increase of nearly 22%. The number of sugar mills still in operation increased from 500 to 518 compared with the same period last year [2][3] - **Strategy**: Wait and see for now [4] Cotton - **Market Information**: On Thursday, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price fluctuated at a high level. The closing price of the May contract of Zhengzhou cotton was 14,910 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton or 0.2% from the previous trading day. The China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex) 3128B was 16,103 yuan/ton, up 170 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. As of January 24, the planting rate of cotton in Brazil in the 2025/26 season was 60.6%, compared with 36.3% in the previous week, 46.3% in the same period last year, and a five - year average of 40.9%. In December 2025, China imported 180,000 tons of cotton, an increase of 40,000 tons year - on - year. In 2025, China's cumulative cotton imports were 1.08 million tons, a decrease of 1.56 million tons year - on - year. As of the week of January 23, the spinning mill's operating rate was 64.6%, flat compared with the previous week and an increase of 26.1 percentage points compared with the same period last year. The national commercial cotton inventory was 5.7 million tons, an increase of 460,000 tons year - on - year. The January 2025/26 global cotton production forecast was 26 million tons, a decrease of 80,000 tons compared with the December forecast and an increase of 200,000 tons compared with the previous season. The inventory - to - consumption ratio was 62.63%, a decrease of 1.42 percentage points compared with the December forecast and an increase of 0.62 percentage points compared with the previous season. The January forecast of US cotton production was 3.03 million tons, a decrease of 76,000 tons compared with the December forecast. The export forecast remained unchanged, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio was 30.43%, a decrease of 2.17 percentage points. Brazil's production forecast remained unchanged at 4.08 million tons; India's production was revised down by 110,000 tons to 5.12 million tons; China's production was revised up by 220,000 tons to 7.51 million tons. From January 8 to January 15, the US current - year cotton export sales were 97,300 tons, and the cumulative export sales were 1.72 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 166,000 tons. Among them, the export to China in that week was 3,300 tons, and the cumulative export to China was 88,600 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 72,100 tons [5][6][7] - **Strategy**: Pay attention to the opportunity of low - buying before the Spring Festival [8] Protein Meal - **Market Information**: On Thursday, the protein meal futures price rose. The closing price of the May contract of soybean meal was 2,802 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton or 0.72% from the previous trading day. The closing price of the May contract of rapeseed meal was 2,325 yuan/ton, up 28 yuan/ton or 1.22% from the previous trading day. The spot price of soybean meal in Dongguan was 3,120 yuan/ton, flat compared with the previous trading day; the spot price of rapeseed meal in Huangpu was 2,520 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. From January 8 to January 15, the US exported 2.45 million tons of soybeans, and the current - year cumulative soybean exports were 33.03 million tons. Among them, the export of soybeans to China in that week was 1.3 million tons, and the current - year cumulative export to China was 9.42 million tons. From January 16 to January 23, the domestic sample soybean arrivals were 1.47 million tons, a decrease of 30,000 tons compared with the previous week; the sample soybean port inventory was 7.21 million tons, a decrease of 500,000 tons compared with the previous week; the sample oil mill soybean meal inventory was 810,000 tons, a decrease of 30,000 tons compared with the previous week. The January 2025/26 global soybean production forecast was 425.67 million tons, an increase of 3.13 million tons compared with the December forecast and a decrease of 1.48 million tons compared with the previous season. The inventory - to - consumption ratio was 29.4%, an increase of 0.39 percentage points compared with December and a decrease of 0.44 percentage points compared with the previous season. The January forecast of US soybean production was 115.99 million tons, an increase of 238,000 tons compared with the December forecast and a decrease of 3.05 million tons compared with the previous season; the January forecast of Brazil's production was 178 million tons, an increase of 3 million tons compared with the December forecast and an increase of 6.5 million tons compared with the previous season; the January forecast of Argentina's production was 48.5 million tons, flat compared with the December forecast and a decrease of 2.6 million tons compared with the previous season. In addition, in the January forecast, the US export volume was slightly revised down by 1.63 million tons to 42.86 million tons compared with the December forecast [10][11] - **Strategy**: The protein meal price may be bottoming out [12] Oils and Fats - **Market Information**: On Thursday, the oils and fats futures price rose. The closing price of the May contract of soybean oil was 8,382 yuan/ton, up 56 yuan/ton or 0.67% from the previous trading day. The closing price of the May contract of palm oil was 9,362 yuan/ton, up 92 yuan/ton or 0.99% from the previous trading day. The closing price of the May contract of rapeseed oil was 9,446 yuan/ton, up 116 yuan/ton or 1.24% from the previous trading day. The spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Zhangjiagang was 8,900 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; the spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 9,360 yuan/ton, up 110 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 10,170 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. From January 1 to 20, the production of crude palm oil in Malaysia decreased by 14.43% compared with the same period of the previous month. From January 16 to January 23, the inventory of the three major domestic oils and fats decreased slightly by 30,000 tons to 1.95 million tons. The US government plans to finalize the 2026 biofuel blending quota in early March. Indonesia's Deputy Minister of Energy said that Indonesia has cancelled the plan to increase the mandatory biodiesel blending ratio to 50% this year (i.e., the B50 plan) and maintained the current B40 plan. The January US soybean oil consumption forecast was 1.32 million tons, a decrease of 249,000 tons compared with the December forecast and an increase of 1 million tons compared with the previous season. In December, India's total vegetable oil imports were 1.38 million tons, an increase of 200,000 tons compared with November [14][16] - **Strategy**: Wait for a pullback and then try to go long [17] Eggs - **Market Information**: Yesterday, the national egg price was generally stable with slight increases. The average price in the main production areas rose 0.01 yuan to 3.97 yuan/jin. The price in Heishan remained at 3.7 yuan/jin, and the price in Guantao remained at 3.62 yuan/jin. The supply was normal, the overall market digestion slowed down, and the terminal caution increased. It is expected that the national egg price will remain stable in the short - term, and there may be narrow adjustments in a few areas [18] - **Strategy**: The near - month contracts may fluctuate mainly, and pay attention to the pressure after the rebound. The far - end has a long - term positive expectation, but pay attention to the selling pressure after the over - valuation [19] Pigs - **Market Information**: Yesterday, the domestic pig price generally continued to decline. The average price in Henan fell 0.23 yuan to 12.71 yuan/kg, and the average price in Sichuan fell 0.2 yuan to 12.27 yuan/kg. The slaughtering enthusiasm of farmers remained high. In some areas, the slaughtering progress was lagging behind, so they accelerated the slaughtering. The demand side may have stocking sentiment due to the approaching weekend, but the increase may be lower than expected. The pig price may continue to decline, and the decline may narrow slightly [21] - **Strategy**: There may still be short - selling opportunities after the rebound. Pay attention to the lower support after the long - term decline [22]

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - For sugar, the current raw sugar price has fallen below the support of the Brazilian ethanol conversion price. After the new Brazilian sugar - cane crushing season in April this year, there is a possibility of reducing the sugar - cane - to - sugar ratio. After the northern hemisphere starts to finish the sugar - cane crushing in February and the negative impact of increased production is basically realized, the international sugar price may rebound. The supply of imported sugar in China is gradually decreasing, and as the sugar price drops to a low level, the short - term downward space may be limited. It is advisable to wait and see for now [4]. - For cotton, in the medium - to - long - term, with the reduction of the new - year planting area and the positive future macro - economic expectations, the cotton price still has room to rise. However, due to the excessive short - term increase, it needs time to digest. It is recommended to wait for the price to pull back and then choose the opportunity to go long [10]. - For protein meal, affected by the sudden news from Canada, the rapeseed meal price rebounded. The January USDA report data was slightly bearish as the production forecasts of the US and Brazil increased slightly month - on - month, and the US export volume decreased slightly. But the overall balance sheet situation is still better than that of the 2024/2025 season. From the weekly sample data, the domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories decreased month - on - month. The short - term fundamentals are improving, and the protein meal price may be bottoming out [14]. - For oils and fats, affected by the sudden news from Canada and the year - on - year decline in the palm oil production in Malaysia in January, the oil and fat prices rose significantly yesterday. On the other hand, the inventories of the three major domestic oils and fats have been decreasing month - on - month. The short - term fundamentals are improving. It is recommended to wait for the price to pull back and then try to go long [19]. - For eggs, the pre - holiday stocking sentiment has boosted the spot price increase beyond expectations. The near - month contracts are driven to fluctuate strongly, but the overall supply is still abundant, and the demand - side expectations are about to be realized. The near - month contracts have post - holiday characteristics and may fluctuate. In the future, more attention should be paid to the pressure after the rebound. The far - end contracts are affected by the peak of production capacity and have long - term positive expectations, but after giving profits too early, the realization path is still uncertain. Pay attention to the selling pressure after the over - valuation [21]. - For pigs, the demand support and the market's reluctant - to - sell sentiment caused by the high fat - to - standard pig price difference support the limited short - term decline of the spot price. However, the expectation of inventory accumulation and the upcoming pre - holiday supply release have led to the early weakness of the futures market. Considering the large supply pressure after the Spring Festival in the first half of the year and the expectation of inventory postponement, the futures discount is logical. There may still be short - selling opportunities after the rebound. Due to the limited reduction of production capacity, the improvement space of the far - end fundamentals has been revised down. Pay attention to the support at the lower level after the long - term decline [24]. Summary by Category Sugar Market Information - On Tuesday, the Zhengzhou sugar futures price fluctuated. The closing price of the May contract of Zhengzhou sugar was 5,168 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4 yuan/ton or 0.08% from the previous trading day. In the spot market, the quotation of Guangxi sugar - making groups was 5,250 - 5,320 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [2]. - According to UNICA data, in the second half of December 2025, the central - southern region of Brazil crushed 2.171 million tons of sugar - cane, a year - on - year increase of 26.60%. The sugar output was 56,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 14.93%. The sugar - cane - to - sugar ratio was 21.24%, a decrease of 11.28 percentage points compared with the same period last year. According to the data released by the General Administration of Customs, in December 2025, China imported 580,000 tons of sugar, an increase of 190,000 tons year - on - year. In 2025, China's cumulative sugar imports were 4.92 million tons, an increase of 570,000 tons year - on - year. As of the end of December in the 2025/2026 sugar - cane crushing season, China's cumulative sugar imports were 1.77 million tons, an increase of 310,000 tons year - on - year. In December, China imported a total of 69,700 tons of syrup and premixed powder. In 2025, the cumulative imports were 1.1888 million tons. According to the data released by the Indian Sugar and Bio - energy Manufacturers Association (ISMA), as of January 15, 2026, India's national sugar output had reached 15.909 million tons, a nearly 22% increase compared with 13.044 million tons in the same period last year. The number of sugar mills still in operation increased from 500 in the same period last year to 518 [3]. Cotton Market Information - On Tuesday, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price fluctuated weakly. The closing price of the May contract of Zhengzhou cotton was 14,565 yuan/ton, a decrease of 85 yuan/ton or 0.58% from the previous trading day. In the spot market, the China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex) 3128B was reported at 15,953 yuan/ton, a decrease of 42 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [6]. - According to the data released by the Brazilian National Supply Company (Conab), as of January 24, the planting rate of cotton in the 2025/2026 season in Brazil was 60.6%, compared with 36.3% in the previous week, 46.3% in the same period last year, and a five - year average of 40.9%. According to the data of the General Administration of Customs, in December 2025, China imported 180,000 tons of cotton, an increase of 40,000 tons year - on - year. In 2025, China's cumulative cotton imports were 1.08 million tons, a decrease of 1.56 million tons year - on - year. According to Mysteel data, as of the week of January 23, the operating rate of spinning mills was 64.6%, unchanged from the previous week and an increase of 26.1 percentage points compared with the same period last year; the national commercial cotton inventory was 5.7 million tons, an increase of 460,000 tons year - on - year. According to USDA data, the January forecast for the 2025/2026 global cotton production was 26 million tons, a decrease of 80,000 tons compared with the December forecast and an increase of 200,000 tons compared with the previous season; the inventory - to - consumption ratio was 62.63%, a decrease of 1.42 percentage points compared with the December forecast and an increase of 0.62 percentage points compared with the previous season. Among them, the January forecast for US production was 3.03 million tons, a decrease of 76,000 tons compared with the December forecast, the export forecast remained unchanged, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio was 30.43%, a decrease of 2.17 percentage points. The production forecast for Brazil remained unchanged at 4.08 million tons; the production forecast for India was reduced by 110,000 tons to 5.12 million tons; the production forecast for China was increased by 220,000 tons to 7.51 million tons. According to USDA data, from January 8 to January 15, the US current - year cotton export sales were 97,300 tons, and the cumulative export sales were 1.72 million tons, a decrease of 166,000 tons year - on - year; among them, the export to China in that week was 3,300 tons, and the cumulative export to China was 88,600 tons, a decrease of 72,100 tons year - on - year [7][9]. Protein Meal Market Information - On Tuesday, the protein meal futures price fluctuated. The closing price of the May contract of soybean meal was 2,766 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3 yuan/ton or 0.11% from the previous trading day. The closing price of the May contract of rapeseed meal was 2,271 yuan/ton, an increase of 2 yuan/ton or 0.09% from the previous trading day. In the spot market, the spot price of soybean meal in Dongguan was reported at 3,120 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; the spot price of rapeseed meal in Huangpu was reported at 2,470 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day [12]. - According to foreign media reports, Canadian Prime Minister Carney said that after President Trump threatened to impose a 100% tariff, he did not plan to sign any trade agreements with China. According to USDA export sales data, from January 8 to January 15, the US exported 2.45 million tons of soybeans, and the current - year cumulative soybean exports were 33.03 million tons; among them, the US exported 1.3 million tons of soybeans to China in that week, and the current - year cumulative exports to China were 9.42 million tons. According to MYSTEEL data, from January 16 to January 23, the domestic sample soybean arrivals were 1.47 million tons, a decrease of 30,000 tons compared with the previous week; the sample soybean port inventory was 7.21 million tons, a decrease of 500,000 tons compared with the previous week; the sample oil - mill soybean meal inventory was 810,000 tons, a decrease of 30,000 tons compared with the previous week. According to USDA data, the January forecast for the 2025/2026 global soybean production was 425.67 million tons, an increase of 3.13 million tons compared with the December forecast and a decrease of 1.48 million tons compared with the previous season. The inventory - to - consumption ratio was 29.4%, an increase of 0.39 percentage points compared with December and a decrease of 0.44 percentage points compared with the previous season. Among them, the January forecast for US soybean production was 115.99 million tons, an increase of 238,000 tons compared with the December forecast and a decrease of 3.05 million tons compared with the previous season; the January forecast for Brazilian production was 178 million tons, an increase of 3 million tons compared with the December forecast and an increase of 6.5 million tons compared with the previous season; the January forecast for Argentine production was 48.5 million tons, unchanged compared with the December forecast and a decrease of 2.6 million tons compared with the previous season. In addition, in the January forecast, the US export volume decreased slightly by 1.63 million tons to 42.86 million tons compared with the December forecast [13]. Oils and Fats Market Information - On Tuesday, the oils and fats futures price rose. The closing price of the May contract of soybean oil was 8,258 yuan/ton, an increase of 32 yuan/ton or 0.39% from the previous trading day. The closing price of the May contract of palm oil was 9,238 yuan/ton, an increase of 146 yuan/ton or 1.61% from the previous trading day. The closing price of the May contract of rapeseed oil was 9,326 yuan/ton, a decrease of 19 yuan/ton or 0.2% from the previous trading day. In the spot market, the spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Zhangjiagang was reported at 8,740 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; the spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was reported at 9,170 yuan/ton, an increase of 140 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was reported at 10,080 yuan/ton, an increase of 130 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [16]. - According to foreign media reports, Canadian Prime Minister Carney said that after President Trump threatened to impose a 100% tariff, he did not plan to sign any trade agreements with China. According to the data released by the Malaysian Palm Oil Association (MPOA), the production of crude palm oil in Malaysia from January 1 to 20 decreased by 14.43% compared with the same period of the previous month. According to MYSTEEL data, from January 16 to January 23, the inventory of the three major domestic oils and fats decreased slightly by 30,000 tons to 1.95 million tons. The US government plans to finalize the 2026 biofuel blending quota in early March. The deputy minister of the Indonesian Ministry of Energy said that Indonesia has cancelled the plan to increase the mandatory biodiesel blending ratio to 50% this year (i.e., the B50 plan) and will maintain the current B40 plan. According to USDA data, the January forecast for US soybean oil consumption was 1.32 million tons, a decrease of 249,000 tons compared with the December forecast and an increase of 1 million tons compared with the previous season. According to the data of the Indian Solvent Extractors' Association, India's total vegetable oil imports in December were 1.38 million tons, an increase of 200,000 tons compared with November [16][18]. Eggs Market Information - Yesterday, the national egg price was stable in some areas and rose in others. The average price in the main production areas increased by 0.08 yuan to 3.92 yuan/jin. The price in Heishan increased by 0.1 yuan to 3.6 yuan/jin, the price in Guantao increased by 0.11 yuan to 3.62 yuan/jin, and the price in Xishui increased by 0.07 yuan to 3.96 yuan/jin. The supply was normal, the overall market digestion was okay, and most industry players purchased and sold according to the market trend. Most industry players still had a bullish sentiment, and it is expected that the national egg price may rise in most areas and remain stable in a few areas in the short term [21][25]. Pigs Market Information - Yesterday, the domestic pig price generally declined. The average price in Henan decreased by 0.06 yuan to 13.18 yuan/kg, and the average price in Sichuan decreased by 0.1 yuan to 12.67 yuan/kg. The slaughtering enthusiasm of the northern breeding side was okay, but there was a certain reluctance to sell in the low - price areas, and the decline of the pig price may narrow. The southern breeding side was active in slaughtering, the market demand was average, and under the influence of oversupply, the pig price may continue to decline [23].

农产品团队 | 作者： | 王亮亮 | | --- | --- | | 从业资格证号： | F03096306 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0017427 | | 联系方式： | 010-68578697 | | 作者： | 侯芝芳 | | 从业资格证号： | F3042058 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0014216 | | 联系方式： | 010-68578922 | | 作者： | 宋从志 | | 从业资格证号： | F03095512 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0020712 | | 联系方式： | 18001936153 | | 作者： | 辛旋 | | 从业资格证号： | F3064981 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0016876 | | 联系方式： | -- | 投资咨询业务资格：京证监许可【2012】75号 成文时间：2026年01月12日星期一 更多精彩内容请关注方正中期官方微信 期货研究院 养殖油脂产业链日度策略报告 摘要 豆油：周二，豆油主力05合约午后收于7986（日变动-8或-0.10% ）。1月USDA供需报告影响利空，CBOT大豆下跌，日内棕榈油价 格上涨抑制豆油价 ...

Group 1: Report Investment Ratings - Cotton: Neutral to bullish [1] - Sugar: Neutral [4] - Pulp: Neutral [7] Group 2: Core Views - Cotton: The overall pattern of domestic and foreign cotton prices is divided, with a strong domestic and weak foreign situation. In the short - term, ICE US cotton is under pressure, and the demand side of domestic cotton is weakening marginally. In the long - term, cotton prices are expected to be bullish [1] - Sugar: The global sugar market is in a state of surplus. The short - term decline of raw sugar is limited, and the long - term price is not overly pessimistic. Domestic sugar is in a situation of increasing supply and the price is expected to fluctuate and bottom out [3][4] - Pulp: Overseas supply is disturbed, and domestic demand is expected to recover moderately in the short - term. The price will fluctuate and be slightly strong, but the upward height depends on demand and inventory digestion [7] Group 3: Summary by Commodity Cotton - Market News and Key Data: The closing price of cotton 2605 contract was 14,435 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton. The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 15,385 yuan/ton, up 267 yuan/ton. From December 19th to 25th, the US graded and inspected 129,200 tons of 2025/26 cotton, and 82.1% met the ICE cotton delivery requirements [1] - Market Analysis: The domestic and foreign cotton price trends are divided. Internationally, the US cotton inventory pressure increases, and the global textile consumption is weak. Domestically, cotton production increases, and the demand side is marginally weakening [1] - Strategy: Neutral to bullish. In the long - term, cotton prices are expected to rise, but short - term high - level corrections should be vigilant [1] Sugar - Market News and Key Data: The closing price of sugar 2605 contract was 5253 yuan/ton, down 32 yuan/ton. As of December 27, 2025/26, Thailand's cumulative sugar production was 1.2793 million tons, down 15.83% year - on - year [2] - Market Analysis: The global sugar market is in surplus. The short - term decline of raw sugar is limited, and the long - term price is not overly pessimistic. Domestic sugar supply is increasing seasonally, and the import pressure remains high [3][4] - Strategy: Neutral. The domestic sugar price is expected to fluctuate and bottom out [4] Pulp - Market News and Key Data: The closing price of pulp 2605 contract was 5510 yuan/ton, down 120 yuan/ton. The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5590 yuan/ton, unchanged [4] - Market Analysis: Overseas pulp mills have shutdown and maintenance news, and the European demand has improved. The domestic terminal demand is insufficient, and the port inventory is high but showing a downward trend [6] - Strategy: Neutral. The short - term trend is expected to fluctuate and be slightly strong, depending on demand and inventory digestion [7]

农产品日报 | 2025-12-18 持续上涨驱动不足，板块延续震荡 棉花观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘棉花2605合约13925元/吨，较前一日变动-20元/吨，幅度-0.14%。现货方面，3128B棉新疆到 厂价14978元/吨，较前一日变动+10元/吨，现货基差CF05+1053，较前一日变动+30；3128B棉全国均价15144元/吨， 较前一日变动+14元/吨，现货基差CF05+1219，较前一日变动+34。 近期市场资讯，16日2025/26年度印度棉花上市量折皮棉约4.2万吨，包含来自安得拉邦1.6万吨、马哈拉施特拉邦8670 吨及古吉拉特邦5950吨。据悉，16日CCI抛储约7.3万吨，前一日成交量为1972吨。具体来看，S-6竞拍底价稳定在 51500卢比/坎地，折约72.45美分/磅。 市场分析 昨日郑棉期价震荡收跌。国际方面，本月USDA对于全球棉花供需数据调整不大，25/26年度全球棉花产需双减， 期末库存微幅增加。美棉产量继续小幅调增，经过两个月的调整后美棉累库压力明显加大。当前北半球新棉集中 上市，阶段性供应压力较大，而全球纺织终端消费仍疲软，短期ICE美棉仍将承压。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No information is provided in the given content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply of domestic soybean products is sufficient, which restricts the price increase of soybean oil, while the improving downstream consumption limits its price decline. Currently, the driving forces of both long and short positions are not obvious. The short - term suggestion is to wait and see [3]. - The inventory of rapeseed oil in major regions across the country continues to decline, and the supply may increase after the arrival of Australian rapeseeds. The strong performance of palm oil prices has a certain driving effect on rapeseed oil, and it may continue the volatile pattern in the short term [3]. - The SPPOMA data indicates that Malaysian palm oil may enter the production - reduction season, and the market trades the expectation of future production decline. However, the export demand in the main producing areas is still weak. It is expected to maintain a volatile and strong operation in the short term, but the upward space may be limited [4]. - The supply of domestic beans is relatively sufficient, and the short - term upward driving force is expected to be insufficient. Attention should be paid to the sowing situation of South American soybeans and the export situation of US soybeans to China [4]. - The demand for aquatic feed is in the off - season, the cost - performance of rapeseed meal is not high, the downstream demand is weak, and the supply is still tight. After the smooth arrival of Australian rapeseeds, it is expected to have a certain increase in the follow - up [4]. - The market focus of US corn has gradually shifted to the consumption side, and its export competitive advantage is obvious, supporting the price. The quality of corn in North China has declined, and the purchase enthusiasm for Northeast corn has increased, but the driving force for the continuous increase of the futures price is insufficient [5][6]. - The upstream and middle - stream of soybeans in the Northeast region have a bullish sentiment, while the downstream procurement is cautious. The overall supply of domestic soybeans is sufficient, but there is a structural shortage, and the price may continue to be firm in the short term [6]. - The spot price of live pigs has rebounded from the bottom, and the loss of breeding units has increased in early December, resulting in a strong sentiment of reducing supply and supporting prices. The futures price shows a pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength, and the mid - term suggestion is to wait for the confirmation of production capacity reduction and then choose the opportunity to buy the 2607 contract at a low price [6]. - The spot price of eggs has stopped falling and rebounded, but the continuous rise is currently lacking strength. The expectation of production capacity reduction boosts the long - term expectation. The futures price has fallen below the historical low level since 2016, and it is recommended to be cautious about short - selling [6]. Summary According to the Directory Part One: Sector Strategy Recommendations 1. Market Analysis | Sector | Variety | Market Logic (Supply - Demand) | Support Level | Resistance Level | Market Judgment | Reference Strategy | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Oilseeds | Soybean No.1 01 | The upstream and middle - stream are reluctant to sell and support prices, and the downstream is wait - and - see. The price is firm. | 4040 - 4050 | 4180 - 4200 | Range operation | Temporarily wait and see | | Oilseeds | Soybean No.2 01 | The news of Brazilian soybean arrivals disturbs, and the port soybean inventory is sufficient. The price is firm. | 3650 - 3660 | 3800 - 3820 | Volatile adjustment | Temporarily wait and see | | Oils | Soybean Oil 01 | The news of Brazilian soybean arrivals and domestic soybean oil export disturbs, and the inventory continues to decline. The supply is sufficient, and consumption is increasing. | 8050 - 8100 | 8330 - 8350 | Volatile adjustment | Temporarily wait and see | | Oils | Rapeseed Oil 01 | The supply may increase after the arrival of Australian rapeseeds. | 9300 - 9350 | 10000 - 10050 | Volatile trend | Temporarily wait and see | | Oils | Palm Oil 01 | The data indicates that Malaysian palm oil enters the production - reduction season, but the export demand in the main producing areas is still weak. The domestic inventory decreased last week but is still higher than the same period last year. | 8300 - 8350 | 8750 - 8800 | Volatile and strong | Light - position short - term long | | Proteins | Soybean Meal 01 | The supply is sufficient, the cost is slightly weak, and the downstream demand is weak. The coastal oil mills are in a standstill, and the supply is still tight. | 2940 - 2950 | 3080 - 3100 | Volatile adjustment | Temporarily wait and see | | Proteins | Rapeseed Meal 01 | The supply is tight, but it is expected to increase after the arrival of Australian rapeseeds. | 2370 - 2380 | 2600 - 2630 | Volatile and under pressure | Temporarily wait and see | | Energy and By - products | Corn 01 | The quality of North China corn is poor, and the import of grains has decreased, which supports the purchase enthusiasm and price of Northeast corn. However, the upward driving force of the futures price has decreased. | 2140 - 2150 | 2280 - 2300 | Volatile consolidation | Temporarily wait and see | | Energy and By - products | Starch 01 | Follows the cost of corn for volatile consolidation. | 2350 - 2360 | 2600 - 2620 | Volatile consolidation | Temporarily wait and see | | Livestock | Live Pigs 01 | The feed price stops falling and rebounds, and the expectation of production capacity reduction is strengthened. | 11500 - 12000 | 12500 - 12800 | Volatile bottom - seeking | Turn to wait and see | | Livestock | Eggs 01 | The new production decreases, and there is an expectation of a consumption peak season. | 3000 - 3100 | 3300 - 3350 | Volatile bottom - seeking | Buy at a low price | [9] 2. Commodity Arbitrage - For inter - month spreads, such as soybean No.1 1 - 5, soybean No.2 1 - 5, etc., most of the strategies are to wait and see. For the live pig 1 - 3 spread, it is recommended to do a long - near and short - far arbitrage at a low price [11]. - For cross - variety spreads, such as 01 soybean oil - palm oil, 01 rapeseed oil - soybean oil, etc., some suggest waiting and seeing, and some suggest bearish operations [11]. 3. Basis and Spot - Futures Strategies The report provides the spot prices, price changes, and basis and basis changes of various varieties in different sectors, including oilseeds, oils, proteins, energy and by - products, and livestock [12]. Part Two: Key Data Tracking Table 1. Oils and Oilseeds - **Daily Data**: It shows the import cost data of soybeans, rapeseeds, and palm oil from different origins and different shipping dates, including CNF prices, import - duty - paid prices, and the cost of soybean meal when the crushing profit is zero [13][14]. - **Weekly Data**: It presents the inventory and operating rates of various varieties such as soybeans, rapeseeds, palm oil, and peanuts [15]. 2. Feed - **Daily Data**: It provides the import cost data of corn from Argentina and Brazil in different months [15]. - **Weekly Data**: It shows the weekly data of corn and corn starch, including the consumption, inventory, operating rate, and sales progress of corn by deep - processing enterprises [16]. 3. Livestock - It provides the daily and weekly data of live pigs and eggs, including prices, production, consumption, and inventory data [17][18][19][20][21]. Part Three: Fundamental Tracking Charts - **Livestock (Live Pigs and Eggs)**: It includes charts of the closing prices of live pig and egg futures contracts, spot prices, piglet prices, white - strip pork prices, chicken - seedling prices, and culled - chicken prices [22][24][25][26][28][29][30][31]. - **Oils and Oilseeds**: - **Palm Oil**: It includes charts of Malaysian palm oil production, exports, inventory, import gross profit, import volume, domestic inventory, and daily trading volume [31][32][33][34][35]. - **Soybean Oil**: It includes charts of US soybean crushing volume, US soybean oil inventory, soybean crushing profit, domestic soybean oil mill operating rate, domestic soybean oil inventory, and daily trading volume [39][40][41][42]. - **Peanuts**: It includes charts of peanut arrival and shipment volume, peanut crushing profit, peanut operating rate, peanut inventory, and peanut oil inventory [44][45][46]. - **Feed**: - **Corn**: It includes charts of corn futures closing prices, spot prices, basis, spreads, port inventory, sales progress, import volume, and deep - processing enterprise consumption and inventory [48][49][50][51][53][54][55][56]. - **Corn Starch**: It includes charts of corn starch futures closing prices, spot prices, basis, enterprise operating rate, and inventory [58][60]. - **Rapeseed**: It includes charts of rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil spot prices, basis, inventory, and crushing profit [62][64][66][68][70]. - **Soybean Meal**: It includes charts of US soybean growth indicators, soybean and soybean meal inventory, basis, spreads, and the ratio of soybean oil to soybean meal [75][77][79][81][83][85]. Part Four: Option Situation of Feed, Livestock, and Oils It provides charts of the historical volatility of rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, soybean oil, palm oil, and peanuts, as well as the trading volume, open interest, and put - call ratio of corn options [89][90]. Part Five: Warehouse Receipt Situation of Feed, Livestock, and Oils It provides charts of the warehouse receipt situations of rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, soybean oil, palm oil, peanuts, corn, corn starch, live pigs, and eggs, as well as the open interest of the live pig and egg indexes [92][94][95].

Report Industry Investment Rating - All three industries (cotton, sugar, and pulp) are rated neutral [3][6][8] Core Viewpoints - For cotton, short - term upward space is limited due to factors like potential increase in hedging positions and weak downstream demand, but long - term prospects are optimistic considering low initial inventory and resilient consumption [2][3] - For sugar, the 25/26 global sugar market may be in a bear cycle with an oversupply pattern. Before the end of the year, it is expected to fluctuate, and there may be new lows next year [5][6] - For pulp, the fundamental improvement is insufficient, and the price is likely to continue to oscillate at a low level. Attention should be paid to the actual implementation of peak - season demand in the fourth quarter [7][8] Summary by Industry Cotton Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of the cotton 2601 contract was 13,615 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan/ton (+0.59%) from the previous day [1] - Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 14,627 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan/ton; the national average price was 14,825 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan/ton [1] - Market Information: In the 2025/26 season, the cotton - planting area in Mato Grosso, Brazil is expected to be 1.46 million hectares (21.9 million mu), a year - on - year reduction of 5.7%, while the output is expected to be 2.62 million tons, a slight increase of 2.6% [1] Market Analysis - International: Sino - US negotiations have made substantial progress, but the actual purchase volume of US cotton by China is unclear. The release of key data is postponed, and the short - term upward space of the outer market is limited due to supply pressure and weak export performance [2] - Domestic: The new - year cotton market starts with low inventory, but the supply is supplemented. The purchase price of seed cotton has stabilized and rebounded, but the short - term upward space of cotton prices is limited due to potential hedging positions and weak downstream demand [2] Strategy - A neutral strategy is recommended. In the short term, there is a possibility of a callback, while in the long term, cotton prices can be viewed optimistically [3] Sugar Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of the sugar 2601 contract was 5441 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton (-0.73%) from the previous day [4] - Spot: The spot price of sugar in Kunming, Yunnan was 5660 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton [4] - Market Information: The estimated total sugar production in the 2025/26 season in India (excluding the amount used for ethanol production) is 34.35 million tons, and the net production (after excluding ethanol usage) is 30.95 million tons [4] Market Analysis - Raw sugar: Supply surplus pressure has pushed the price below 15 cents. Although the sugar - making ratio in Brazil has declined in the short term, the long - term rebound momentum is limited due to overall northern hemisphere production increases [5] - Zhengzhou sugar: The impact of typhoons has subsided, and there is a strong expectation of domestic sugar production increase. However, the price has fallen near the production cost line, and the downward space is limited due to stricter syrup control policies [5] Strategy - A neutral strategy is recommended. It is expected to fluctuate before the end of the year, and there may be new lows next year [6] Pulp Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of the pulp 2601 contract was 5360 yuan/ton, up 72 yuan/ton (+1.36%) from the previous day [6] - Spot: The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Russian softwood pulp was 5045 yuan/ton, unchanged [6] - Market Information: The spot price of imported wood pulp was basically stable, with only minor adjustments [6] Market Analysis - Supply: Overseas pulp mills have announced price increases, production cuts, and conversion plans, but the actual transactions are not good, and the overall supply pattern remains loose [7] - Demand: Weak consumption in Europe and the United States and domestic demand weakness are the core factors suppressing pulp prices. During the peak season, downstream paper mills' procurement is cautious [7] Strategy - A neutral strategy is recommended. The pulp price is likely to continue to oscillate at a low level, and attention should be paid to the actual implementation of peak - season demand in the fourth quarter [8]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Soybean Oil**: The price of soybean oil futures rose during the day due to the exhaustion of Argentina's export tax - free quota and the news of potential US support for Argentina's currency swap. With sufficient domestic supply and weak market confidence in the "strong expectation," the futures price is expected to fluctuate widely. It is recommended to temporarily observe the Y2601 contract, with support at 7950 - 8000 yuan/ton and resistance at 8330 - 8350 yuan/ton [3]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: China's temporary anti - dumping measures on Canadian rapeseed imports may lead to a significant reduction in Canadian rapeseed purchases. Although imports from Russia, Dubai, and Australia can partially make up for the supply, the trade policy of Canadian rapeseed remains uncertain. If imports are significantly reduced, domestic rapeseed oil will continue the de - stocking process. It is recommended to go long with a light position, with support at 9655 - 9698 and resistance at 10300 - 10333 [3]. - **Palm Oil**: From September 1 - 20, Malaysia's palm oil production decreased by 4.26 - 7.89% month - on - month, and from 1 - 25, exports increased by 11.3 - 12.9% month - on - month. There is no obvious inventory accumulation pressure in the producing areas. Indonesia may increase the mandatory palm oil blending ratio in biodiesel to B45 before moving to B50. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, with support at 8900 - 8910 and resistance at 9570 - 9590 [4]. - **Soybean Meal and Bean No. 2**: The exhaustion of Argentina's export tax - free quota and the uncertainty of supply policies have led to price fluctuations. The domestic supply of soybean meal is sufficient, and the short - term trend is expected to be volatile. It is recommended that aggressive strategies consider going long with a light position, while conservative strategies consider temporary observation [5]. - **Corn and Corn Starch**: In the short term, the CBOT corn futures price is expected to remain in a low - level range. The domestic market is mainly a game between low channel inventory and the new season's listing rhythm. It is recommended to consider selling wide - straddle option combinations or out - of - the - money call options [7]. - **Soybean No. 1**: The price rebounded with Bean No. 2, but its fundamentals changed little. The new domestic soybeans are gradually being listed, and the supply is increasing, which restricts the price increase [8]. - **Peanuts**: The new season's peanuts are expected to have an increased yield and lower production costs. As the listing volume gradually increases, there is supply pressure on the spot and futures prices. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile [9]. - **Hogs**: The futures price of hogs fluctuated and bottomed out. The current market is affected by factors such as feed prices and production capacity reduction expectations. It is recommended that cautious investors hold long - short spreads, while aggressive investors can consider going long on the 2601 contract after the production capacity reduction is confirmed [10]. - **Eggs**: The futures price of eggs rebounded with reduced positions. After a continuous decline, the spot price rebounded slightly in September. It is recommended that cautious investors avoid short - selling, while aggressive investors can consider going long on the 2511 contract at a low price [10]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents First Part: Sector Strategy Recommendations - **Market Analysis** - **Oilseeds**: Products such as Bean No. 1, Bean No. 2, and peanuts are expected to have a volatile adjustment. It is recommended to temporarily observe [13]. - **Oils**: Soybean oil is expected to decline with fluctuations, while rapeseed oil is expected to be slightly stronger, and palm oil is expected to be volatile. It is recommended to observe soybean oil and palm oil, and go long on rapeseed oil with a light position [13]. - **Proteins**: Both soybean meal and rapeseed meal are expected to be volatile, and it is recommended to observe [13]. - **Energy and By - products**: Corn and corn starch are expected to face pressure, and it is recommended to hold short positions cautiously [13]. - **Livestock**: Hogs are expected to find the bottom with fluctuations, and eggs are expected to be volatile. It is recommended to observe hogs and go long on eggs at a low price [13]. - **Commodity Arbitrage** - For most varieties, it is recommended to observe, while for hogs 1 - 3 and eggs 10 - 1, it is recommended to conduct long - short spreads at a low price [15]. - **Basis and Spot - Futures Strategies** - The report provides the spot prices, price changes, and basis changes of various products, including oilseeds, oils, proteins, energy and by - products, and livestock [16]. Second Part: Key Data Tracking Table - **Oilseeds and Oils** - **Daily Data**: It includes the import costs of soybeans, rapeseeds, and palm oil from different origins and shipping dates [17]. - **Weekly Data**: It shows the inventory and operating rates of beans, rapeseeds, palm oil, and peanuts [19]. - **Feed** - **Daily Data**: It provides the import costs of corn from Argentina and Brazil [19]. - **Weekly Data**: It shows the consumption, inventory, operating rate, and inventory of corn and corn starch in deep - processing enterprises [20]. - **Livestock** - **Daily Data**: It provides the daily data of hogs and eggs, including prices, price changes, and cost - profit data [21][22]. - **Weekly Data**: It shows the weekly data of hogs and eggs, including prices, production costs, profits, and slaughter data [23][25]. Third Part: Fundamental Tracking Charts - **Livestock (Hogs and Eggs)**: It includes charts of futures and spot prices of hogs and eggs, as well as related price charts such as piglets and white - striped pork [26]. - **Oilseeds and Oils** - **Palm Oil**: It includes charts of production, exports, inventory, and other aspects of Malaysian palm oil, as well as domestic palm oil inventory and trading volume [36]. - **Soybean Oil**: It includes charts of US soybean crushing volume, soybean oil inventory, domestic soybean oil factory operating rate, and inventory [43]. - **Peanuts**: It includes charts of peanut arrival, shipment, processing profit, and inventory [52]. - **Feed** - **Corn**: It includes charts of corn futures and spot prices, inventory, import volume, and processing profit [58]. - **Corn Starch**: It includes charts of corn starch futures and spot prices, operating rate, and inventory [65]. - **Rapeseed**: It includes charts of rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil spot prices, inventory, and processing profit [69]. - **Soybean Meal**: It includes charts of US soybean growth indicators, soybean and soybean meal inventory, and basis [75]. Fourth Part: Options Situation of Feed, Livestock, and Oils It includes charts of historical volatility of products such as rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, soybean oil, palm oil, and peanuts, as well as option trading volume and open interest of corn [93]. Fifth Part: Warehouse Receipt Situation of Feed, Livestock, and Oils It provides charts of warehouse receipts of products such as rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, soybean oil, palm oil, peanuts, corn, corn starch, hogs, and eggs [96].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints - For the soybean/meal sector, the international soybean supply is generally loose, with price pressure remaining. In the domestic market, high arrivals and crushing volumes, along with good demand, still result in overall pressure [2][3][4]. - Regarding sugar, internationally, Brazil is in the supply peak, and the global inventory is entering the accumulation phase, which has a bearish impact on prices. However, low - priced sugar has strong support. Domestically, the import volume is high, the domestic sugar inventory is low, and the Zhengzhou sugar price has greater downward resistance [7][8][11]. - In the oil and fat sector, the palm oil price is supported by stable spot prices in the origin. Domestic soybean oil is in the inventory accumulation stage, and the fundamentals of rapeseed oil have little change. Short - term sentiment may affect the market [15][17][19]. - For corn/corn starch, the US corn futures are falling back, and the domestic corn supply is still scarce. The 01 corn contract is oscillating at the bottom [26][27][29]. - In the pig market, the overall supply pressure remains, and the price is expected to decline [35]. - For peanuts, the market is stable, and the 01 peanut contract is oscillating at the bottom [39][40][43]. - In the egg market, high supply, low cost, and weak demand have led to low egg prices. The short - term price rebound is due to holiday stocking, and the price is starting to fall back [48][49][51]. - For apples, the futures are expected to be oscillating in the short term, and the new - season purchase price will have a significant impact on the market [55][56][60]. - In the cotton - cotton yarn market, the Xinjiang cotton output is expected to increase, and the downstream demand improvement is limited. The market is expected to be slightly weak [64][65][67]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean/Meal - **外盘情况**: CBOT大豆指数下跌0.7%至1028.5美分/蒲，CBOT豆粕指数下跌0.74%至280.6美金/短吨 [2] - **相关资讯**: 截至2025年9月18日当周，预计美国2025/26市场年度大豆出口净销售为60 - 160万吨；2024/25市场年度豆粕出口净销售介于0 - 5万吨，2025/26市场年度豆粕出口净销售为15 - 40万吨；欧盟将EUDR执行再度推迟12个月至2026年年底；9月22日当周大豆出口量达200万吨，9月1 - 22日累积出口量约470万吨；截止9月19日当周，油厂大豆实际压榨量242.75万吨，开机率67.76%，大豆库存694.66万吨，较上周减少38.54万吨，减幅5.26%，同比去年增加7.04万吨，增幅1.02%，豆粕库存125万吨，较上周增加8.56万吨，增幅7.35%，同比去年减少20.83万吨，减幅14.28% [2][3] - **逻辑分析**: 美国与阿根廷相关谈判使市场对阿根廷压力担忧好转，国际大豆供应偏宽松，价格有压力；国内大豆到港和压榨量维持高位，需求良好但仍有压力 [4] - **策略建议**: 单边观望；M11 - 1正套；期权观望 [6] Sugar - **外盘变化**: 上一交易日ICE美原糖主力合约震荡小幅收低，跌0.04（-0.25%）至16.12美分/磅；伦白糖主力合约跌4.6（-0.99%）至458.4美元/吨 [7] - **重要咨讯**: 咨询公司StoneX预计巴西中南部地区2026/27年度糖产量达4210万吨，同比增长5.7%，甘蔗压榨量或达6.205亿吨，同比增长3.6%；2025/26年度全球食糖市场预计供应过剩277万吨，巴西、印度和泰国作物收成改善将抵消欧洲减产；内蒙古荷丰农业和新疆绿翔糖业开榨 [8][9] - **逻辑分析**: 国际上巴西供应高峰使全球累库，对价格有一定利空，但低价糖有支撑；国内进口糖量高，国产糖库存低，受外糖走势影响大，郑糖向下阻力变大，广东广西台风对郑糖有支撑 [11] - **交易策略**: 单边外糖短期低位震荡，郑糖受外糖反弹和天气影响走势略强；套利观望；考虑低位卖出虚值看跌期权 [12][13][14] Oil and Fat - **外盘情况**: 隔夜CBOT美豆油主力价格变动幅度 - 0.30%至49.84美分/磅；BMD马棕油主力价格变动幅度0.28%至4353林吉特/吨 [15] - **相关资讯**: MPOC预计马来西亚棕榈油9 - 10月库存小幅攀升，11月回落；印尼和欧盟签署协定，印尼棕榈油等产品有望受益；巴基斯坦9月采购约18万吨美国大豆；截至9月21日，欧盟2025/26年棕榈油、大豆、豆粕、油菜籽进口量较去年有不同程度变化 [17][18] - **逻辑分析**: 9月马棕产量或下滑，出口或上涨，产地现货价格支撑棕榈油；国内豆油累库，关注美豆进口情况；菜油基本面变化不大，澳籽进口有变数，菜油去库支撑价格；短期油脂受情绪面影响，建议观望 [19] - **交易策略**: 单边短期油脂震荡回落，暂时观望；套利观望；期权观望 [20][21][22] Corn/Corn Starch - **外盘变化**: 芝加哥期货交易所（CBOT）玉米期货外盘回落，美玉米12月主力合约回落0.5%，收盘为424.5美分/蒲 [26] - **重要资讯**: 截至2025年9月19日，北方四港玉米库存共计67.5万吨，周环比减少5.4万吨，下海量共计22.4万吨，周环比减少9.70万吨；广东港内贸玉米库存减少，外贸库存增加，进口高粱减少，进口大麦增加；本周全国玉米加工总量、淀粉产量增加，开机率升高；截至9月24日，全国玉米淀粉企业淀粉库存总量下降；9月25日北港收购价稳定，产区黑龙价玉米下跌，华北产区玉米稳定 [27][28] - **逻辑分析**: 美玉米外盘回落，后期下调单产但产量新高，反弹空间有限；国内玉米供应少，东北玉米回落，港口价格偏强，进口玉米拍卖，华北玉米现货反弹，01玉米底部震荡，盘面回落空间小 [29] - **交易策略**: 单边外盘12玉米反弹到高位观望等回调，01玉米建立多单并设止损；套利观望；期权观望 [31][32][33] Pig - **相关资讯**: 生猪价格整体震荡，东北地区12.6 - 12.8元/公斤，华北地区12.4 - 12.5元/公斤等；截止9月23日当周，全国7公斤仔猪价格236元/头，15公斤仔猪价格335元/头，50公斤母猪价格1588元/头；9月24日农产品批发价格指数上升，全国农产品批发市场猪肉平均价格上升0.2% [35] - **逻辑分析**: 规模企业和普通养殖户出栏压力好转，短期供应略减，但生猪存栏高位，总体供应压力仍在，价格偏回落 [35] - **策略建议**: 单边观望；LH15反套；卖出宽跨式策略 [38] Peanut - **重要资讯**: 全国花生通货米均价4.22元/斤基本稳定；山东油厂通货米合同采购报价8400元/吨、河南油厂报价7800元/吨；国庆、中秋双节临近，花生油走货略有改善但不如往年旺季，国内一级普通花生油报价14664元/吨、小榨浓香型花生油市场报价为16350元/吨；截止到2025年9月18日，国内花生油样本企业厂家花生库存减少，花生油库存增加 [39][40] - **逻辑分析**: 部分花生现货上市但因天气上量少，河南和东北新季花生稳定，进口量大幅减少，价格稳定，豆粕、花生粕、花生油价格稳定，油厂有利润，油料花生市场稳定，01花生短期底部震荡 [41][43] - **交易策略**: 单边11和01花生底部震荡，11花生短多操作；套利观望；卖出pk601 - P - 7600期权 [44][45][46] Egg - **重要资讯**: 昨日主产区均价为3.67元/斤，主销区均价3.81元/斤，今日全国主流价格多数稳定，部分地区有落价；8月份全国在产蛋鸡存栏量为13.65亿只，较上月增加0.09亿只，同比增加5.9%，8月份样本企业蛋鸡苗月度出苗量环比减少0.1%，同比减少8%；9月11日一周全国主产区蛋鸡淘鸡出栏量减少，淘汰鸡平均淘汰日龄持平；截至9月11日当周全国代表销区鸡蛋销量减少，生产和流通环节周度平均库存减少 [48][49][50] - **交易逻辑**: 总体供应高，高存栏低成本叠加弱需求使蛋价低，前期超低蛋价增加淘鸡积极性，近期蛋价反弹使淘鸡意愿下降，双节备货使库存去化，近期走货放缓，蛋价开始回落 [51] - **交易策略**: 单边近期蛋价回落，近月合约可逢高沽空；套利观望；期权观望 [52][53][54] Apple - **重要资讯**: 截至2025年9月10日，全国主产区苹果冷库库存量为20.91万吨，环比上周减少6.44万吨，山东产区库存走货速度加快；7月份鲜苹果出口量环比增加44.95%，进口量环比减少5.73%，同比增加8.47%，1 - 7月累计进口量同比增加29.76%；山东产区冷库苹果价格主流平稳，优质货源成交顺畅，红将军货源供应量充足但好货偏紧，西北产区客商按需采购，采青货订购价格高，国内批发市场到货平稳，主流成交价格稳定；山东烟台栖霞苹果主流价格稳定，三级果交易顺畅 [55][56][57] - **交易逻辑**: 早熟苹果优果率差，晚熟富士优果率预计也差，开称价格预期略高，但期货盘面价格已不低，短期偏震荡，关注新季收购价格 [60] - **交易策略**: 单边预计短期受优果率差预期苹果偏震荡，前期高位是近期高点，后期苹果上市后卖套保压力大；套利观望；期权观望 [60][61][62] Cotton - Cotton Yarn - **外盘影响**: 昨日ICE美棉下跌，主力合约下跌0.47（0.71%）至66.14分/磅 [64] - **重要资讯**: 昨日市场交投冷清，现货基差偏稳，纺企刚需采购，今日籽棉收购价暂稳，棉农观望心理强；美棉主产区及得克萨斯州气温上升降水增加，降水仍偏低，干旱水平上行，优良率小幅下滑；近日籽棉采收增加，价格跌后暂稳，新季棉籽少量上市，棉短绒价格上涨 [65][66] - **交易逻辑**: 新花进入收购，市场关注新棉开称，新疆棉产量预计超预期增加，轧花厂收购积极性一般，无大范围抢收，新花上市有卖套保压力，9月市场旺季下游需求好转有限，旺季表现一般，对盘面提振有限 [67] - **交易策略**: 单边预计未来美棉走势大概率震荡，郑棉前期高位是短期高点，近期卖套保压力大，震荡略偏弱，建议择机交易；套利观望；期权观望 [68][69][70]