2026年伊始，A股在震荡中呈现结构性机会，公募基金新一轮布局已然展开。 多家头部机构发布的最新投资展望认为，在经济温和复苏与产业升级加速的背景下，人工智能、半导 体、消费等多个板块均有结构性机遇。 2026年预计仍有较多增量资金流入 大成基金首席权益策略分析师耿睿坦认为，从企业盈利层面看，制造业投资和A股资本开支收缩推动供 需再平衡，为盈利提供支撑；国内需求端以财政为牵引，特别国债、专项债的投向结构变化，将影响A 股定价。海外经济体财政扩张，叠加相关地区再工业化进程，将带来明确的外需贝塔。 从微观流动性上看，耿睿坦表示，当前A股处于总量流动性扩张、风险偏好提升的环境，后续需关注财 政货币政策；2025年A股延续资金净流入，主力增量为险资、融资等，个人投资者以高净值、高风险偏 好人群为主。预计2026年仍有较多增量资金流入。 中长期来看，国泰基金基金经理胡松认为，人民币国际化进程推进，以及政策持续鼓励长期资金入市， 市场仍具备向上动力。无风险利率下行、资本市场改革提速、中长期宏观预期修复，对市场形成较强支 撑。 展望2026年A股表现，华夏基金表示，市场向好的中期趋势有望在深化与平衡中延续。从宏观环境看， 政 ...

Core Insights - The four major tech companies, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, and Meta, are projected to invest over $650 billion in artificial intelligence in 2026, with significant capital expenditures planned [1][2][3] Investment Plans - Amazon plans to invest approximately $200 billion in capital expenditures by 2026 [1] - Alphabet's capital expenditures are expected to range between $175 billion and $185 billion for the current year [1] - Meta's spending is projected to be between $115 billion and $135 billion in 2026 [2] - Microsoft's annual run rate for capital expenditures is estimated at $145 billion for its 2026 fiscal year [2] Expenditure Growth - The total spending from these four companies is expected to increase by about 67% to 74% compared to their $381 billion expenditures in 2025, with a low-end estimate of $635 billion and a high-end estimate of $665 billion [3] Focus Areas - The majority of the investments will be directed towards AI chips, servers, and data center infrastructure [3] Market Reactions - Following the announcements, Amazon's stock fell over 8%, Alphabet's shares dropped 3%, and Microsoft experienced an 11% decline after reporting slower growth in its Azure cloud unit [5] - In contrast, Meta's stock rallied due to positive quarterly results and the impact of AI on its ad revenue [6] Investor Sentiment - Investors are exhibiting caution regarding the spending plans of tech companies, reflecting a more scrutinizing approach towards returns on AI investments [6][7] - There is a growing belief in the transformative potential of AI for enterprises, influenced by advancements from companies like Anthropic and Google's Gemini 3 [8]

Core Insights - The competition in the AI programming sector is intensifying, with OpenAI's Codex App marking a significant evolution in AI coding tools, transitioning from a simple code assistant to a multi-agent collaboration platform [1][10] Group 1: Codex App Features - Codex App allows developers to manage multiple AI agents simultaneously, enabling parallel task execution and independent operation of agents, which enhances productivity [2][3] - Each Codex agent can work for up to 30 minutes, returning complete code results, and operates on the GPT-5.2-Codex model, which currently leads in benchmark tests [1][2] - The app supports git worktree, allowing multiple agents to work in the same repository without conflicts, thus maintaining the stability of the main branch [2] Group 2: Skills and Automation - OpenAI is expanding the capabilities of Codex beyond code generation by introducing "Skills," which package instructions and resources for stable execution of workflows [3][5] - Codex App includes an automation feature that allows developers to set scheduled tasks for agents to run in the background, facilitating the handling of repetitive but important tasks [5] Group 3: Safety and Technical Debt - The design of Codex emphasizes safety, utilizing a configurable system-level sandbox that restricts agent access to specific files and requires user authorization for higher permissions [6] - Codex has proven effective in addressing technical debt, performing tasks that human engineers often avoid, such as code refactoring and legacy issue resolution [7] Group 4: Market Position and Future Plans - OpenAI aims to establish Codex as the default tool in the AI programming space before competitors can expand their influence, with over 1 million developers already using Codex in the past month [8][10] - Future plans include launching a Windows version and enhancing cloud-triggered automation capabilities, alongside continuous improvements in model performance [9]

Core Insights - Concerns about returns in the AI sector are resurfacing, with Big Tech earnings indicating that companies must show results quickly after significant investments in AI or face market penalties [1] Group 1: Meta Platforms - Meta Platforms (META) experienced a stock increase of 10.4% on January 29, 2026, with a revenue growth of 24% in the December quarter, driven by AI-enhanced online advertising [2] - The company provided a first-quarter revenue forecast of $53.5 billion to $56.5 billion, surpassing analyst expectations of $51.41 billion [3] - Meta's capital expenditures related to AI are projected to be between $115 billion and $135 billion for 2026, exceeding analyst expectations of $110.7 billion and nearly doubling the 2025 figure of $72.2 billion [4] Group 2: Microsoft - Microsoft (MSFT) saw a stock decline of about 10% on January 29, 2026, despite reporting better-than-expected earnings and sales, as investors were concerned about slowing momentum and rising risks [6] - Azure cloud revenue grew by 39% in the fiscal second quarter, slightly above forecasts, but below the 40% growth seen in the previous quarter [6] - A significant concern for Microsoft is that OpenAI accounts for 45% of its remaining performance obligations, raising fears about future revenue stability [8] Group 3: Tesla - Tesla's stock fell by 3.2% on January 29, 2026, despite beating quarterly profit and revenue expectations, as investors reacted to the scale of future spending [9] - The company announced plans to more than double its capital expenditures to over $20 billion, focusing on AI, humanoid robots, and fully autonomous vehicles [9] Group 4: Competitive Landscape - The AI race is intensifying, with OpenAI issuing an internal "code red" following strong early reviews of Google's Gemini 3, while Anthropic's Claude Code has reached an annualized revenue run rate exceeding $1 billion [12] - AI ETFs such as AIQ, BOTZ, and ARKQ are considered long-term investment opportunities despite short-term volatility [11] Group 5: ETFs Performance - ETFs heavily invested in Meta, like Fidelity MSCI Communication Services Index ETF (FCOM) and Vanguard Communication Services ETF (VOX), gained approximately 2.8% each [13] - Conversely, ETFs focused on Microsoft, such as Roundhill MSFT WeeklyPay ETF (MSFW) and iShares U.S. Technology ETF (IYW), experienced declines of 12.2% and 1.4%, respectively [13]

Core Insights - Alphabet's Google is transitioning to "agentic commerce," where AI not only suggests purchases but also executes them, fundamentally changing the online retail experience [1] - The Universal Commerce Protocol (UCP) was introduced to facilitate autonomous AI agents in managing complex shopping tasks, enhancing the customer experience and retailer participation [1] - Google is leveraging its vast user data and AI capabilities to position itself as a leader in the evolving AI commerce landscape, moving from a reactive to an offensive strategy [2] Company Developments - Google unveiled the UCP at the National Retail Federation conference, designed to streamline shopping processes such as discount codes and payment processing [1] - The UCP was developed in collaboration with major retailers like Wayfair, Shopify, Walmart, Etsy, and Target, aiming to enhance the shopping journey through AI integration [1] - The Gemini AI model has gained significant traction, with over 650 million monthly users and 2 million business users shortly after launch, indicating strong market acceptance [1] Competitive Landscape - OpenAI's ChatGPT has entered the agentic commerce space with its Instant Checkout feature, which allows users to make purchases directly within the chat interface [1] - Amazon's generative AI shopping agent, Rufus, provides product comparisons and recommendations but does not complete transactions, highlighting a gap in its capabilities compared to Google's offerings [1] - Analysts believe Google's extensive user data and established ecosystem give it a competitive edge in the AI commerce sector [1] Market Outlook - Analysts have a bullish outlook on Alphabet, with price targets set at $310 and $330, reflecting confidence in the company's AI momentum and retail partnerships [1] - The upcoming fiscal 2025 fourth-quarter report is anticipated to provide further insights into Alphabet's AI strategy and future plans for 2026 [2] - The introduction of UCP is seen as a pivotal moment that could redefine retail search and commerce, moving towards a "Chat-Then-Buy" model [1]

Core Insights - The article highlights the intense competition for AI talent among major tech companies, with significant salaries being offered to attract top graduates and professionals [5][6][9] - There is a notable trend of talent leaving large companies to start ventures in embodied intelligence, indicating a shift in focus from traditional AI to more hardware-oriented applications [12][16] - Investors are increasingly favoring the embodied intelligence sector, viewing it as a friendly environment for entrepreneurs compared to the more competitive AI landscape dominated by large firms [4][20] Talent Competition - Major tech companies are offering high salaries to attract AI talent, with Tsinghua University PhD graduates receiving offers ranging from 1.6 million to 2 million yuan, and some positions in foundational AI models reaching 3 to 4 million yuan [6][7] - Companies like ByteDance and Tencent have launched aggressive recruitment programs targeting both graduates and current students, with ByteDance offering up to 20,000 yuan per day for interns [7][9] - The competition for AI talent has led to significant salary increases, with reports indicating a 50% rise in compensation for core AI personnel at Meituan by 2025 [7][9] Shift to Embodied Intelligence - A growing number of tech professionals are leaving their positions at large firms to pursue opportunities in embodied intelligence, with over 30 entrepreneurs reported to have made this transition in 2023 alone [4][12] - The article lists several notable figures who have left major companies to start their own ventures in embodied intelligence, indicating a trend among top talent to seek more innovative and less constrained environments [15][16] - The investment landscape for embodied intelligence is becoming increasingly favorable, with significant funding being directed towards startups in this field, totaling over 70 billion yuan in 2024 [15][22] Corporate Strategies - Major tech companies are cautious about investing heavily in embodied intelligence, viewing it as a less profitable venture compared to AI software development [20][22] - Companies like Alibaba, Tencent, and ByteDance are primarily investing in startups within the embodied intelligence space rather than developing their own products, aiming to mitigate risks associated with new business ventures [22][23] - The article notes that large firms are likely to adopt a strategy of gradual investment and eventual acquisition of successful startups in the embodied intelligence sector [22][23]

Group 1 - The S&P 500 index has reached a new closing high, indicating a potential year-end rally, with Nvidia leading the charge [1][2] - Fundstrat's technical strategist Newton predicts a rebound in the market, with Nvidia expected to perform well in the coming weeks, which is significant for the U.S. stock market [2] - Nvidia's stock price has shown a notable increase, breaking through a downward trend line, suggesting a bullish outlook for the tech sector [2][3] Group 2 - Nvidia's next technical resistance levels are identified at $196 and $212, with a potential rise towards $220 if it closes above $212 [2] - The S&P 500 index has broken through the critical level of 6,903 points, suggesting a possible year-end close above 7,000 points [3] - The market is advised to remain bullish, with any minor pullbacks seen as buying opportunities [3] Group 3 - Argent Capital's manager expects continued demand for computing power, citing supply chain shortages and conservative capacity expansion by TSMC as key factors [4] - The anticipated release of OpenAI's new GPT model in early 2026, trained on Nvidia's latest Blackwell chips, could significantly impact Nvidia's market position [4] - Gabelli Funds' manager emphasizes the importance of the new GPT model's performance for Nvidia, comparing it to the recent success of Google's Gemini 3 model [4] Group 4 - Concerns about competition from Google's Gemini 3 model are noted, but it is suggested that the real competition lies in the rivalry between OpenAI and Google rather than a direct threat to Nvidia [5][6] - Custom chips developed by other companies are not expected to pose a significant threat to Nvidia, as Nvidia's Blackwell chips are versatile and support various data centers [6] - The market will closely monitor the progress of OpenAI's Stargate data centers and its recurring revenue targets, which will help alleviate investor concerns regarding Nvidia's competitive advantage [6]

Group 1: Core Insights - The core growth drivers for the media and internet industry are performance-driven factors and AI empowerment, with a recommendation to focus on increasing AI investments and core internet assets in Hong Kong [1] - The film industry shows stable supply and a recovery in the market, with a notable increase in box office revenue, reaching 3.553 billion yuan in November 2025, a year-on-year increase of 89.29% and a month-on-month increase of 36.03% [1] Group 2: Gaming Sector - The domestic gaming market achieved actual sales revenue of 31.359 billion yuan in October 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 7.8%, with client games showing strong performance [2] - Self-developed games generated overseas revenue of 1.799 billion USD, marking an 11.9% increase year-on-year, while the number of game licenses issued in November reached 178, with a total of 1,532 licenses issued in the year, up over 29% [2] Group 3: Marketing Trends - The overall advertising market saw a 4.3% year-on-year increase in spending from January to October 2025, with October alone witnessing a 10.6% increase compared to the same month last year [3] - Significant increases in advertising spending were noted in sectors such as telecommunications, personal care, and entertainment, while pharmaceuticals and alcoholic beverages experienced declines [3] - In November, advancements in AI technology focused on long text, multi-modal capabilities, and reasoning efficiency, with major companies releasing updates to enhance their AI systems [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the media and internet industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The media and internet industry is driven by performance and AI empowerment, with a focus on core assets in the Hong Kong internet sector and AI applications [3][4] - The report highlights the stable supply in the film industry and the recovery of the box office, with significant growth in ticket sales [16][20] - The gaming sector shows strong performance with an increase in both client and mobile game revenues, driven by dual-end interaction [57][58] - The advertising market is showing steady growth, with a notable increase in spending across various sectors [3][4] Market Review - In November 2025, the media industry index rose by 1.69%, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index, which fell by 2.46% [5][6] - The media sector's performance varied, with advertising marketing up by 9.68% and the gaming sector down by 0.94% [10][12] Sub-industry Data Tracking Film Industry - The national box office for November 2025 reached 3.553 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 89.29% and a month-on-month increase of 36.03% [16][20] - The top film, "Zootopia 2," generated a box office of 1.731 billion yuan, accounting for 54.2% of the monthly total [23] Gaming Industry - The domestic gaming market's actual sales revenue in October 2025 was 31.359 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.83% [57] - Client games showed a strong performance with revenues of 7.227 billion yuan, up 29.4% year-on-year [58] Advertising Industry - The overall advertising market expenditure increased by 4.3% year-on-year in the first ten months of 2025, with a significant rise of 10.6% in October [3][4]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry or specific companies involved. Core Insights - The launch of the GPT-5.2 series by OpenAI marks a significant enhancement in its deliverable capabilities, which is expected to increase AI penetration in knowledge-based roles. The model achieved a 70.9% win or tie rate in the GDPval benchmark, with a notable improvement of 9.3 percentage points in spreadsheet modeling tasks for junior investment banking analysts [2][13]. - The transition of model capabilities from merely providing answers to completing end-to-end tasks is highlighted, with a 98.7% completion rate in the Tau2-bench Telecom task and a 55.6% score in SWE-Bench Pro evaluations, indicating enhanced reliability in complex workflows [3][14]. - OpenAI's pricing strategy for the GPT-5.2 series emphasizes efficiency improvements through scenario segmentation, with a steeper pricing gradient for different model capabilities, aiming to increase Average Revenue Per User (ARPU) without significantly lowering service thresholds [4][15]. - The competitive landscape is evolving, with OpenAI's release of GPT-5.2 seen as a direct response to Google Gemini 3, indicating a shift in competition towards distribution channel control and enterprise system integration capabilities [5][16]. Summary by Sections Event Overview - OpenAI officially launched the GPT-5.2 model series on December 11, 2025, targeting professional knowledge work and long-horizon tasks, with significant performance enhancements in various applications [1][12]. Product Enhancements - The GPT-5.2 upgrade focuses on improving the quality of deliverables, particularly in financial modeling and presentation generation, which are critical for enterprise productivity scenarios [2][13]. Commercial Strategy - The pricing model for GPT-5.2 is designed to encourage precise model selection based on task complexity, thereby optimizing user engagement and revenue generation [4][15]. Competitive Dynamics - The introduction of GPT-5.2 is part of an ongoing "iteration speed war" among leading AI firms, with a focus on transforming model capabilities into scalable productivity solutions [5][16].