December 7, 2025 10:30 PM GMT Tesla Inc | North America Beyond the Wheel – Mapping Tesla's Journey into Physical AI | What's Changed | | | | --- | --- | --- | | Tesla Inc (TSLA.O) | From | To | | Rating | Overweight | Equal-weight | | Price Target | $410.00 | $425.00 | Tesla under Elon Musk's leadership is poised to be a market leader across autonomous mobility, renewable energy, and robotics. However, with the stock trading at 30x 2030 EBITDA (48x on MSe), downside to NTM cons. estimates, and non-auto cata ...

乘用车：车企盈利分化，Q4增长可期 行业方面，2025Q3，乘用车板块实现营收同比+7.4%，低于并表销量端的同比+14.4%，主要系价格战 影响下单车均价同比-0.99万元/辆；乘用车板块扣非归母净利润94.9亿元，同比-25.1%。 个股方面，新品上市+高端化成为乘用车企营收增长主要驱动力；销量方面，小鹏汽车、零跑汽车等新 势力车企在低基数效应以及重磅新车放量带动下销量同比增长迅速；吉利汽车、上汽集团（600104）等 传统自主车企新能源转型稳步推进、叠加传统品牌销量修复，带动整体销量实现较快增长。高端化方 面，豪华市场的问界M8以及超豪华市场的尊界S800两款标志性产品带动对应车企赛力斯（601127）和 江淮汽车（600418）单车收入同比显著提升。 华龙证券发布研报称，2025Q3，乘用车板块实现营收同比+7.4%，低于并表销量端的同比+14.4%，主 要系价格战影响下单车均价同比-0.99万元/辆；扣非归母净利润94.9亿元，同比-25.1%。展望2025Q4， 整车端，2026年优惠政策退坡预期下，板块销量增长可期；商用车市场有望在政策持续发力下有望延续 Q3高景气度。零部件端，已发布&待发布强 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the automotive industry [2] Core Insights - The automotive sector has shown a significant performance divergence between passenger vehicles and commercial vehicles, with the latter expected to maintain high growth momentum [1][5] - The passenger vehicle segment experienced a revenue increase of 7.4% year-on-year in Q3 2025, while the sales volume grew by 14.4%, indicating a price war impact with an average price decrease of 0.99 million yuan per vehicle [5][37] - The commercial vehicle sector has seen a notable recovery in sales since June 2025, driven by government fiscal improvements and overseas demand, leading to a valuation recovery in the sector [5][15] Summary by Sections Passenger Vehicles - The passenger vehicle market maintained a high level of activity in Q3 2025, with wholesale sales reaching 7.53 million units, a year-on-year increase of 13.7% [23] - The segment's revenue for Q3 2025 was 557.7 billion yuan, with a notable performance difference among manufacturers, driven by new product launches and a shift towards higher-end models [37][44] - The profitability of the passenger vehicle sector showed a decline, with a net profit of 9.49 billion yuan in Q3 2025, down 25.1% year-on-year, primarily due to pressure on leading manufacturers like BYD [41][44] Commercial Vehicles - The commercial vehicle sector, particularly buses and heavy trucks, has shown significant improvement, with Q3 2025 revenues increasing by 30.6% year-on-year for buses and 26.9% for heavy trucks [6][15] - The heavy truck segment's net profit reached 3.84 billion yuan in Q3 2025, reflecting a 55.3% increase year-on-year, supported by favorable government policies and demand recovery [6][15] Auto Parts - The auto parts sector reported a revenue increase of 10.4% year-on-year in Q3 2025, with a net profit growth of 22.6%, indicating effective cost control and efficiency improvements [5][6] - Nearly 80% of auto parts companies achieved revenue growth in Q3 2025, driven by strong demand from the automotive production side [5][6] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies in strong product cycles, such as Great Wall Motors, Seres, and SAIC Motor, as well as key suppliers in the auto parts sector like Joyson Electronics and Desay SV [5][6][7]

Core Viewpoint - The company has a clear structure with four major business segments and possesses high-quality customer resources, focusing on the automotive parts industry for over 30 years. The expected revenue for 2024 is 2.531 billion yuan, with a projected revenue of 1.287 billion yuan for the first half of 2025. The gross profit margin is expected to rebound in 2023 and grow to 29.04% in the first half of 2025 [2][27][36]. Business Segments Summary Stamping and Assembly Business - The stamping and assembly business benefits from the recovery and growth of core customers, particularly SAIC Motor, which is experiencing a resurgence. The company has expanded its customer base to include new energy vehicle manufacturers such as Tesla, Li Auto, and Xiaomi, with a multi-regional capacity layout to meet future demand [3][4][25]. - The stamping business has over 3,500 products covering critical areas such as body, chassis, powertrain, and electronics, with a year-on-year growth of 41.08% expected in the first half of 2025 [15][54]. Precision Plating Business - The precision plating business has opened a second growth avenue, with a focus on power semiconductor-related projects. The company entered this field by acquiring Wuxi Kaixiang and has established itself as a core supplier in precision plating for Bosch since 2016, with a gross profit margin of 80% [5][20][51]. - The company has invested in a power semiconductor component project, which is expected to bring new growth opportunities [6][25]. Financial Performance - The company's revenue has shown continuous growth, with a significant increase of 32.7% in 2023, driven by rising demand from downstream customers. The revenue for 2024 is projected to reach 2.531 billion yuan, with a net profit of 378 million yuan, reflecting a growth rate of over 36% [27][32]. - The gross profit margin has improved significantly, reaching 29.04% in the first half of 2025, benefiting from product structure optimization and cost control [36][51]. Customer Base and Market Position - The company has a solid customer base, with major clients including SAIC Group, Tesla, Li Auto, and Xiaomi, contributing to 73.51% of total revenue in 2025. The deep partnership with SAIC Group ensures stable business, while new energy clients provide growth potential [54][55]. - The automotive stamping parts market in China is expected to maintain a scale of around 250 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027, driven by the increasing demand for lightweight and high-safety vehicles [58][59].

Core Insights - Tesla reported mixed results for Q3, with revenue of $28.1 billion, a 12% year-over-year increase, and deliveries of 497,000 vehicles, up 7.4%, both hitting historical highs. However, net profit fell to $1.37 billion, a 37% decline year-over-year, and adjusted net profit dropped 29%, significantly below market expectations [1][17] - The company is facing challenges with its pricing strategy, as it has resorted to price cuts to boost sales, which has led to a decline in vehicle margins and consumer perception of quality [3][6][9] Financial Performance - Q3 revenue reached $28.1 billion, a 12% increase from the previous year, while net profit was $1.37 billion, down 37% year-over-year [1] - The average selling price of Tesla vehicles decreased from approximately $55,000 in 2022 to $41,800 in Q3 2023, reflecting a significant drop in vehicle margins [3][8] - The automotive gross margin fell to 15.4%, with per vehicle gross profit estimated at $6,400, a reduction of over 50% compared to previous years [8][9] Pricing Strategy - Tesla introduced lower-priced models, such as the Model Y Standard and Model 3 Standard, but faced criticism for reducing features, leading to negative consumer feedback [2][6] - The company has been using financial promotions and subsidies to manage inventory, but the effectiveness of these strategies is in question as consumer trust appears to be eroding [3][6] Innovation and Future Outlook - Tesla's future growth narrative relies heavily on advancements in autonomous driving, robotics, and AI, with Musk emphasizing these areas during earnings calls [10][15] - Despite the focus on new technologies, the company has faced delays in the rollout of its robotics business, with significant technical challenges reported [13][15] - The energy generation and storage business saw a 44% revenue increase to $3.42 billion, but this segment remains a small part of Tesla's overall business [15] Leadership and Governance - A new ten-year compensation plan for Musk has sparked controversy, with critics arguing that it is excessive and questioning Musk's focus on Tesla amid his other ventures [17][18] - Musk's potential departure raises concerns about Tesla's future direction, as he has shown more interest in AI and robotics than in traditional automotive operations [19][20]

Core Insights - Tesla reported record vehicle deliveries and energy storage deployments, leading to record revenue and free cash flow generation in Q3 2025 [1] - Total revenue increased by 12% year-over-year to $28.1 billion, driven by higher vehicle deliveries and growth in energy generation and storage [3] Financial Performance - GAAP operating income was $1.6 billion, with GAAP net income at $1.4 billion and non-GAAP net income at $1.8 billion [1] - Operating cash flow reached $6.2 billion, while free cash flow was nearly $4.0 billion, raising total cash and investments to $41.6 billion [1] Product Development - Tesla launched the Model YL and Model Y Performance, and expanded its offerings with the Model 3 and Model Y Standard [2] - The company introduced the Megapack 3 and Megablock to simplify large battery installations [2] Operating Challenges - Operating income decreased by 40% year-over-year to $1.6 billion due to increased operating expenses from SG&A, AI, and R&D projects, along with lower one-time FSD revenue recognition [3] Autonomous and AI Initiatives - Tesla began deploying version 14 of FSD (Supervised) and launched a ride-hailing service in the Bay Area [4] - The company expanded its AI training compute capacity to 81 k H100 equivalents and announced a semiconductor-manufacturing partnership with Samsung [4] Energy Operations - Energy storage deployments reached record levels, supported by the ramp-up of Megafactory Shanghai and Powerwall deployments [5] - Gross profit from energy operations rose to a record $1.1 billion [5] Future Outlook - Management indicated sufficient liquidity to fund product roadmap and long-term capacity expansion, expecting hardware-related profits to accelerate alongside AI and software profits [6] - Upcoming milestones include Cybercab, Tesla Semi, and Megapack 3 entering volume production in 2026, with Optimus production lines being installed [6]

Core Insights - Tesla reported its third-quarter financials, achieving record highs in vehicle deliveries and free cash flow, but its adjusted earnings fell short of market expectations [1][4] Financial Performance - Tesla delivered record vehicle volumes globally, with automotive revenue increasing by 6% year-over-year and 29% sequentially, driven by strong demand for the Model Y [3] - The company's total revenue and free cash flow reached new highs, supported by higher deliveries and energy storage deployments [3] - Adjusted earnings fell 31% from the prior year, primarily due to a decline in regulatory credit revenue and increased costs per vehicle [4] Market Reaction - Despite strong operational metrics, TSLA stock traded lower in the morning session, indicating investor disappointment over the earnings miss and lack of short-term guidance [2] External Factors - The expiration of the U.S. federal EV tax credit of $7,500 in September likely contributed to the record deliveries, as customers rushed to purchase vehicles before the incentive ended [5] - Broader market uncertainties, including fluctuating demand and evolving trade dynamics, have left investors uncertain about Tesla's future performance [2] Product Development - Tesla launched several new automotive and energy products, including the Model YL and Model Y Performance, and expanded its affordable vehicle lineup with the Model 3 and Model Y Standard [6]

Core Insights - Tesla reported total revenue of $28.1 billion for Q3 2025, a 12% year-over-year increase, exceeding market expectations [1] - Net profit for the quarter was $1.373 billion, a 37% decline compared to the previous year [1] - Gross margin improved to 18%, higher than the first two quarters of the year [1] Delivery and Production - Tesla achieved a record total delivery of 497,100 vehicles in Q3, marking a 7% year-over-year increase [1] - The Shanghai Gigafactory delivered over 90,000 vehicles in September, with over 71,000 vehicles delivered in the Chinese market [1] - New models such as Model YL and high-performance Model Y were introduced to diversify the product lineup [1] Technological Advancements - Significant progress was made in artificial intelligence, robotics, and related services during Q3 [1] - Tesla began rolling out the V14 version of its smart driving assistance and expanded the operational scope, timing, and fleet size of its Robotaxi service [1] - A partnership with Samsung was established to produce chips for AI inference and training in the U.S. [1] Autonomous Driving and Robotics - Currently, 12% of Tesla users are paying for smart driving assistance, with cumulative usage exceeding 9.6 billion kilometers [2] - The Cybercab, Tesla's autonomous electric vehicle, is set to begin mass production in Q2 2026 [2] - A production line for humanoid robots with a capacity of 1 million units is expected to be completed by the end of 2026 [2] - The focus on humanoid robots includes creating a highly flexible and functional mechanical hand, which poses significant supply chain challenges [2] Operational Status - Humanoid robots are currently operational at Tesla's engineering headquarters in California, achieving continuous operation [3]

Financial Performance - GAAP operating income was $1.6 billion[6] - GAAP net income was $1.4 billion[6] - Non-GAAP net income reached $1.8 billion[6] - Operating cash flow amounted to $6.2 billion[6] - Free cash flow hit a record of nearly $4.0 billion[6] - Cash and investments increased by $4.9 billion to reach $41.6 billion[6] Revenue Growth - Total revenue increased by 12% year-over-year to $28.1 billion[9, 11] - Automotive revenue increased by 6% year-over-year to $21.205 billion[9] - Energy generation and storage revenue increased significantly by 44% year-over-year to $3.415 billion[9] - Services and other revenue grew by 25% year-over-year to $3.475 billion[9] Operational Highlights - Total vehicle deliveries increased by 7% year-over-year to 497,099 units[12] - Energy storage deployments saw a substantial increase of 81% year-over-year, reaching 12.5 GWh[12]

Core Insights - Tesla reported third-quarter revenue of $28.095 billion, a 12% year-over-year increase, surpassing the consensus estimate of $26.239 billion, marking the first revenue beat after four consecutive misses [1] - Automotive revenue reached $21.21 billion, up 6% year-over-year, driven by delivery increases, while earnings per share were 50 cents, missing the consensus estimate of 54 cents [2] - Operating income fell 40% year-over-year to $1.6 billion, with an operating margin of 5.8%, despite record deliveries of 497,099 vehicles and production of 447,450 vehicles [3] Financial Performance - The company reported a significant increase in digital assets, totaling $1.315 billion, primarily from Bitcoin holdings, up from $1.235 billion in the previous quarter [4] - Tesla ended the quarter with $41.6 billion in cash, indicating strong liquidity [4] Future Outlook - Tesla plans to launch new products, including the Model YL, Model Y Performance, and affordable versions of Model 3 and Model Y, aiming to leverage its scale and cost structure to navigate market dynamics [5] - The company is focused on long-term growth, with plans for volume production of the Cybercab, Tesla Semi, and Megapack 3 scheduled for 2026, and the Optimus Bot's production lines being installed [6] Market Reaction - Following the earnings report, Tesla's stock declined by 1.1% to $434.20 in after-hours trading, within a 52-week trading range of $212.11 to $488.54 [7]