尽管政策换挡引发车市阵痛，专家普遍认为这是阶段性调整， 长期将有利于推动车市向高质量转型。 作者：周菊 封图：本报资料室 农历腊月初十（1月28日），本是车市传统"年货采购"旺季，往年此时销售人员常忙得不可开 交。然而，经济观察报记者走访了北京多家品牌4S店后发现，今年的汽车展厅格外安静——车辆 整齐停放，销售人员或三两交谈，或低头刷手机，偶尔才有零星顾客到访。"1月客流明显减少， 购置税和补贴政策2025年底调整后，不少客户提前购车，我对春节前销量已不抱期望。"一位比 亚迪销售人员坦言，因为2月工作日比较少预计市场也不会太好，他已经做好这两个月收入锐减的 心理准备。 小鹏汽车销售人员同样感慨："上个月忙得脚不沾地，这个月突然就冷清了，政策调整作用太明 显。"广汽丰田的门店亦门可罗雀，一位销售人员表示，即便店内销售车型以燃油车为主，受新能 源购置税调整影响较小，但多数购车需求已在元旦前释放，市场进入"冷静期"。 上述多家4S店的冷清现状是当前车市下滑的一个缩影。中国汽车流通协会乘用车市场信息联席分 会（下称"乘联分会"）公布的数据显示，2026年1月1日至18日，国内乘用车零售67.9万辆，同 比下跌28%， ...

农历腊月初十（1月28日），本是车市传统"年货采购"旺季，往年此时销售人员常忙得不可开交。然而，经济观察报记者走访了北京多家品牌4S店后发现， 今年的汽车展厅格外安静——车辆整齐停放，销售人员或三两交谈，或低头刷手机，偶尔才有零星顾客到访。"1月客流明显减少，购置税和补贴政策2025年 底调整后，不少客户提前购车，我对春节前销量已不抱期望。"一位比亚迪销售人员坦言，因为2月工作日比较少预计市场也不会太好，他已经做好这两个月 收入锐减的心理准备。 小鹏汽车销售人员同样感慨："上个月忙得脚不沾地，这个月突然就冷清了，政策调整作用太明显。"广汽丰田的门店亦门可罗雀，一位销售人员表示，即便 店内销售车型以燃油车为主，受新能源购置税调整影响较小，但多数购车需求已在元旦前释放，市场进入"冷静期"。 上述多家4S店的冷清现状是当前车市下滑的一个缩影。中国汽车流通协会乘用车市场信息联席分会（下称"乘联分会"）公布的数据显示，2026年1月1日至18 日，国内乘用车零售67.9万辆，同比下跌28%，环比下跌37%。其中，新能源乘用车出现罕见大幅下滑，零售销售为31.2万辆，同比下跌16%，环比腰斩，降 幅达52%，新能源汽车渗 ...

Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:TSLA) will report its fourth quarter 2025 earnings on Wednesday after markets close, and Wedbush analysts say investors will be closely watching the company’s progress on autonomous driving and robotics as demand appears to be stabilizing. Wedbush reiterated its ‘Outperform’ rating on Tesla and set a 12-month price target of $600, citing improving delivery trends and the company’s “AI transformation” driven by autonomous and robotics initiatives. Shares of Tesla traded hands at $434 on Tue ...

2026年销量承压的理想则于1月20日"入局"这轮"金融大战"。其官方海报称，"首付3.25万元起，月供低至2578元，新车轻松开回家"；针 对MEGA与i8，另有专属7年贷款方案，可享前三年免息，月供低至2857元。随后，小鹏汽车在官方金融分期页面直接标注"限时6年-7年 低息方案"，明确活动有效期与费率口径，以"全系可享"的覆盖面争夺春节前的新增订单。 "七年低息"正在成为开年车市最热门的竞争焦点。据财联社记者初步统计， 继特斯拉率先推出7年超低息方案后，小米、理想、小鹏及吉利等车企迅 速跟进，将车贷周期从传统的三年拉长至七年，一场以金融服务为核心的竞争突然席卷而来。 这场"金融大战"由特斯拉于1月6日率先点燃，其针对Model3、Model Y以及Model YL车型推出7年超低息购车方案，其中Model YL系首 次开放该政策。以Model 3后轮驱动版为例，目前官网售价23.55万元，在不加装任何选配的情况下，首付7.99万元，贷款15.56万元，月 供1918元，共分为84期，折合年化率0.98%，7年总利息仅5000多元，而这一利率仅为市场普遍水平（4%-8%）的1/4，甚至低于部分 银行理财收 ...

Market Overview - The A-share market is experiencing a strong performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index achieving a 13-day consecutive rise, setting a record for the longest winning streak in history [6][10] - The trading volume today reached over 2.8 trillion yuan, marking the highest single-day volume since the fourth quarter of last year, indicating increasing market enthusiasm [10] Sector Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector is leading the market, with a significant increase of over 4%. This sector's performance is driven by strong commodity prices, particularly gold, silver, and copper [12][14] - Zijin Mining, a leading company in the non-ferrous sector, saw its market capitalization exceed 1 trillion yuan, making it the first mining company to reach this milestone in A-shares [16] - The non-bank financial sector has also reached new highs since the 1994 market rally, with major insurance companies continuing to perform well [17][20] Investment Trends - There is a notable influx of funds into the market, with net purchases of financing reaching 19 billion yuan, contributing to a total financing balance of 25.434 trillion yuan, a new historical high [10][23] - The market is witnessing a divergence in sector performance, with the communication sector experiencing a decline while non-ferrous metals continue to rise [13][14] Future Outlook - Predictions suggest that a portion of the influx of funds may gradually be sold off in the early part of the year, with a moderate net sell-off observed [23] - The market's current enthusiasm is reflected in the high trading volume and the performance of key sectors, but caution is advised as certain indicators suggest potential overheating in the market [26]

Core Viewpoint - Tesla's Q4 2025 global deliveries fell short of expectations, primarily due to the cancellation of the IRA subsidy in the U.S. and other factors [2] Group 1: Tesla Performance - In Q4 2025, Tesla's global delivery volume decreased by 15.6% year-on-year and 15.9% quarter-on-quarter, totaling 418,000 vehicles, with Model 3 and Model Y deliveries down by 13.8% year-on-year and 15.5% quarter-on-quarter to 407,000 vehicles [2] Group 2: NIO and Other New Energy Vehicles - NIO regained the top position among new energy vehicle manufacturers in December, with a delivery volume of 48,135 vehicles, representing a year-on-year increase of 54.6% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 32.7% [3] - Ideal's delivery volume decreased by 24.4% year-on-year but increased by 33.3% quarter-on-quarter to 44,246 vehicles [3] - Xiaopeng's delivery volume increased by 2.2% year-on-year and 2.1% quarter-on-quarter to 37,508 vehicles [3] Group 3: New Year Purchase Incentives - Tesla announced that the domestic Model 3 will be delivered in February 2026, with various financing policies extended [4] - Ideal's delivery cycles for several models have been adjusted, with cash subsidies available for January purchases [4] - NIO and Xiaopeng also introduced various delivery cycle adjustments and promotional offers for their vehicles [4][5] Group 4: Policy Updates - The Ministry of Commerce and other departments released the implementation details for the 2026 vehicle trade-in subsidy, extending the policy for another year and adjusting the subsidy method [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the automotive and auto parts industry, indicating an expected investment return exceeding 15% over the next 6-12 months [5]. Core Insights - In Q4 2025, Tesla's global deliveries fell short of expectations, decreasing by 15.6% year-on-year and 15.9% quarter-on-quarter to 418,000 units, primarily due to the cancellation of the IRA subsidy in the U.S. [2] - NIO regained the top position among new energy vehicle manufacturers in December, with deliveries increasing by 54.6% year-on-year and 32.7% quarter-on-quarter to 48,135 units [2]. - The continuation of the vehicle trade-in subsidy policy for 2026 is expected to boost market performance in Q1 2026, with a focus on optimizing the growth structure of the automotive market [4]. Summary by Sections Delivery Performance - Tesla's Q4 2025 deliveries were 418,000 units, down 15.6% year-on-year and 15.9% quarter-on-quarter, with Model 3 and Model Y deliveries at 407,000 units, down 13.8% year-on-year and 15.5% quarter-on-quarter [2]. - NIO's December deliveries reached 48,135 units, with a year-on-year increase of 54.6% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 32.7% [2]. - Li Auto's deliveries were 44,246 units, down 24.4% year-on-year but up 33.3% quarter-on-quarter [2]. - Xpeng's deliveries were 37,508 units, reflecting a slight increase of 2.2% year-on-year and 2.1% quarter-on-quarter [2]. New Year Promotions - Tesla will continue its 0% financing policy for five years on Model 3 and Model Y, with specific delivery timelines set for February 2026 [3]. - NIO and other new energy vehicle manufacturers are offering various promotional incentives, including cash subsidies and extended delivery timelines for certain models [3]. Policy Impact - The 2026 vehicle trade-in subsidy policy will extend the scope of eligible vehicles and adjust the subsidy method to a percentage of the new vehicle sales price, which is expected to positively impact the automotive market [4]. - The report recommends focusing on NIO and Xpeng for vehicle manufacturers, and on Fuyao Glass and other component manufacturers for investment opportunities [4].

Tesla Inc. Research Call Summary Company Overview - **Company**: Tesla Inc (TSLA.O) - **Industry**: Autos & Shared Mobility - **Market Cap**: $1,604,330 million - **Current Stock Price**: $455.00 (as of December 5, 2025) - **Price Target**: Increased from $410.00 to $425.00, implying a 6% downside from current levels [4][10] Key Points Rating and Valuation - **Rating Change**: Coverage assumed at Equal-weight from Overweight [4][10] - **Valuation Framework**: A full refresh of the Sum-of-the-Parts (SOTP) valuation framework was conducted, leading to a $15/share upside to the prior price target [10] - **Humanoid Business Value**: Updated model includes $60/share of value for Tesla's Humanoid business (Optimus) [10][12] Market Position and Outlook - **Market Leadership**: Tesla is recognized as a global leader in electric vehicles, renewable energy, and AI, justifying a premium valuation [4][10] - **Choppy Trading Environment**: Anticipated volatility in TSLA shares over the next 12 months due to downside risks to estimates and priced-in non-auto catalysts [4][10] Financial Projections - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: Projected EPS for fiscal years ending December 2024, 2025, 2026, and 2027 are $2.41, $1.66, $1.98, and $2.69 respectively [8] - **Auto Volume Forecast**: MSe auto volume forecast is 13% below consensus for 2026, reflecting a more cautious EV industry outlook [10] Business Segments Autos - **Valuation**: Auto business valued at $55/share, based on long-term DCF with 13% annual unit growth through 2040 [34] - **Market Share**: Expected to maintain 9-11% of the global EV market by 2040 [34] Energy - **Valuation**: Energy business valued at $40/share, with storage deployments expected to compound at an 18% growth rate through 2040 [55] - **Market Position**: Tesla is a leading provider of Energy Storage Systems (ESS), with gross margins improving from 7% in 2022 to 31% in 2025 [50] Robotaxi (Tesla Mobility) - **Market Penetration**: By 2030, Tesla's fleet is expected to capture 20% of the US autonomous vehicle market with 30,000 vehicles [61] - **Valuation**: Tesla Mobility valued at $125/share, with a projected fleet scaling from 1,000 units in 2026 to 5 million by 2040 [66] Humanoids - **Market Potential**: The global humanoid market could reach $7.5 trillion annually by 2050, with Tesla expected to capture significant market share [71][77] - **Valuation**: Humanoids valued at $60/share, reflecting Tesla's leadership in AI and manufacturing [78] Risks and Challenges - **Competition**: Increased competition and margin pressure across all business lines could impact Tesla's market share and profitability [11] - **Regulatory Hurdles**: Challenges in scaling autonomous vehicles in adverse weather conditions and regulatory environments [60] Conclusion - Tesla remains a strong player in the EV and renewable energy markets, with significant growth potential in humanoids and robotaxi services. However, the company faces challenges from competition and market volatility, necessitating a cautious investment approach at this time [4][10][11]

Core Viewpoint - The automotive sector is experiencing mixed performance, with passenger vehicles showing revenue growth but declining profits, while commercial vehicles and parts suppliers are benefiting from improved fundamentals and new product launches [1][2][3]. Passenger Vehicles - In Q3 2025, the passenger vehicle sector achieved a revenue growth of 7.4% year-on-year, which is lower than the consolidated sales growth of 14.4%, primarily due to a price war that led to a decrease in average selling price by 0.99 million yuan per vehicle [2]. - The sector's net profit attributable to the parent company was 9.49 billion yuan, down 25.1% year-on-year [2]. - New product launches and a shift towards high-end models are driving revenue growth for car manufacturers, with companies like Xpeng Motors and Leap Motor seeing rapid sales growth due to low base effects and significant new vehicle releases [2]. Commercial Vehicles - The commercial vehicle market is showing continuous improvement, with significant sales growth since June 2025, contributing to a recovery in sector valuations [1]. - The heavy truck segment reported a revenue of 108 billion yuan in Q3 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 26.9%, with net profit rising 55.3% to 3.84 billion yuan [5]. - The bus segment also performed well, with a revenue increase of 30.6% year-on-year, driven by higher single-vehicle income [4]. Auto Parts - The auto parts sector achieved a revenue of 368.37 billion yuan in Q3 2025, up 10.4% year-on-year, with net profit increasing by 22.6% to 19.64 billion yuan [3]. - Nearly 80% of auto parts companies reported revenue growth in Q3 2025, driven by strong terminal sales and effective cost control measures [3]. - The introduction of several key new models in the passenger vehicle market is expected to boost the performance of core suppliers in the supply chain [3]. Recommendations - Companies in a strong new product cycle such as Great Wall Motors, Seres, SAIC Motor, and Xpeng Motors are recommended for attention [6]. - Strong supply chain players and those involved in humanoid robotics and intelligent driving, such as Longsun Technology and Joyson Electronics, are also highlighted as potential investment opportunities [6]. - For commercial vehicles, leading companies like Weichai Power and Yutong Bus are suggested as beneficiaries of the industry's recovery [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the automotive industry [2] Core Insights - The automotive sector has shown a significant performance divergence between passenger vehicles and commercial vehicles, with the latter expected to maintain high growth momentum [1][5] - The passenger vehicle segment experienced a revenue increase of 7.4% year-on-year in Q3 2025, while the sales volume grew by 14.4%, indicating a price war impact with an average price decrease of 0.99 million yuan per vehicle [5][37] - The commercial vehicle sector has seen a notable recovery in sales since June 2025, driven by government fiscal improvements and overseas demand, leading to a valuation recovery in the sector [5][15] Summary by Sections Passenger Vehicles - The passenger vehicle market maintained a high level of activity in Q3 2025, with wholesale sales reaching 7.53 million units, a year-on-year increase of 13.7% [23] - The segment's revenue for Q3 2025 was 557.7 billion yuan, with a notable performance difference among manufacturers, driven by new product launches and a shift towards higher-end models [37][44] - The profitability of the passenger vehicle sector showed a decline, with a net profit of 9.49 billion yuan in Q3 2025, down 25.1% year-on-year, primarily due to pressure on leading manufacturers like BYD [41][44] Commercial Vehicles - The commercial vehicle sector, particularly buses and heavy trucks, has shown significant improvement, with Q3 2025 revenues increasing by 30.6% year-on-year for buses and 26.9% for heavy trucks [6][15] - The heavy truck segment's net profit reached 3.84 billion yuan in Q3 2025, reflecting a 55.3% increase year-on-year, supported by favorable government policies and demand recovery [6][15] Auto Parts - The auto parts sector reported a revenue increase of 10.4% year-on-year in Q3 2025, with a net profit growth of 22.6%, indicating effective cost control and efficiency improvements [5][6] - Nearly 80% of auto parts companies achieved revenue growth in Q3 2025, driven by strong demand from the automotive production side [5][6] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies in strong product cycles, such as Great Wall Motors, Seres, and SAIC Motor, as well as key suppliers in the auto parts sector like Joyson Electronics and Desay SV [5][6][7]