新力量 New Force 第一上海研究部 research@firstshanghai.com 总第 4988 期 2026 年 3 月 26 日 星期四 研究观点 【公司评论】 特斯拉（TSLA）：周报 第一上海证券有限公司 香港中环德辅道中 71 号永安集团大厦 19 楼 咨询热线：400-882-1055 服务邮箱：Service@firstshanghai.com 网址：www.mystockhk.com 第一上海证券有限公司 www.mystockhk.com 第一上海 新力量 New Force 【公司评论】 李京霖 852-25321957 特斯拉（TSLA）：周报 Jinglin.li@firstshanghai.com.hk Robotaxi：Robotaxi 疑似将进军新城市 Alice.tang@firstshanghai.com.hk 3 月 17 日，在拉斯维加斯北部的亨德森镇，有人发现了配备"后置摄像头清洗装 置"（Robotaxi 专用硬件）的 Model Y 车队。此前特斯拉就公开表示，拉斯维加 斯是其 Robotaxi 车队的五座目标城市之一，其他城市分别是菲尼克斯、达拉斯 ...

🚨 Tesla just released a deep-dive video of the new Model YL $TSLAhttps://t.co/Nzg4adrlPK ...

Group 1: Company Overview - HIMS & HERS HEALTH reported a revenue growth of 59% year-on-year, reaching $2.35 billion in 2025, with a net profit of $130 million[7] - The company has a market capitalization of $5.051 billion and a stock price of $22.16, with a target price of $31.10, indicating a potential upside of 41%[5][10] - The subscription base grew by 13% year-on-year to 2.51 million, with personalized subscription users increasing by 31% to 1.63 million, representing 65% of total subscriptions[8] Group 2: Financial Performance - Q4 2025 revenue was $620 million, a 28% increase, but gross margin decreased by 4.9 percentage points to 71.9%[7] - Adjusted EBITDA for 2025 was $318 million, with an adjusted EBITDA margin of 13.5%[7] - The company plans to achieve at least $6.5 billion in revenue and $1.3 billion in adjusted EBITDA by 2030[10] Group 3: Strategic Developments - HIMS & HERS is expanding internationally, with a $1.15 billion acquisition of Australia's largest telehealth platform, Eucalyptus, which has over 775,000 active paying users[8] - The company aims to exceed $1 billion in international revenue within three years, with 2025 international revenue at $140 million[8] - HIMS & HERS is transitioning to preventive healthcare, launching lab testing services and a longevity program in 2026[8] Group 4: Market Context - The GLP-1 drug market in the U.S. is projected to reach $100-150 billion by 2030, with HIMS & HERS shifting to sell Novo Nordisk's branded drugs after ceasing advertising for compounded semaglutide[9] - The company expects to leverage its platform and service advantages to capture significant market share despite lower margins on branded drugs[9]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of the Spring Festival holiday on February's new energy vehicle (NEV) sales, highlighting the performance of various manufacturers and the upcoming product launches in the industry [4][5][7]. Group 1: February NEV Sales Performance - Li Auto's delivery volume increased by 0.6% year-on-year but decreased by 4.5% month-on-month to 26,421 units [4] - NIO's delivery volume rose by 57.6% year-on-year but fell by 23.5% month-on-month to 20,797 units, with the NIO brand up by 65.8% year-on-year and down by 27.5% month-on-month to 15,159 units, while the Lada brand decreased by 26.4% year-on-year and 14.3% month-on-month to 2,981 units [4] - Xpeng's delivery volume dropped by 49.9% year-on-year and 23.8% month-on-month to 15,256 units [4] Group 2: New Flagship Models Launch - On February 6, Li Auto officially launched the L9 Livis, a flagship SUV featuring an 800V fully active suspension and a self-developed high-performance driving platform [5] - On February 8, Xpeng announced the core parameters of the GX, an AI luxury six-seat flagship SUV, equipped with an 800V high-voltage platform and L4-level autonomous driving capabilities [5] - The flagship models from Li Auto and Xpeng aim to enhance product strength through chassis architecture and intelligent driving features to capture high-end NEV market share [5] Group 3: Financing and Delivery Updates - Tesla's domestic Model 3 delivery cycle has been shortened to 1-3 weeks, with various financing policies extended, including an 8,000 yuan limited-time insurance subsidy [6] - Li Auto maintains delivery cycles for L6/L9 at 1-3 weeks, while the delivery cycle for L8 has been extended to 2-4 weeks [6] - NIO's delivery cycles for several models remain stable, with the new ES8's cycle shortened to 4-5 weeks [6] - Xpeng's delivery cycles for several models have been adjusted, with the G9's cycle extended to 1-5 weeks [6] - Xiaomi's delivery volume exceeded 20,000 units in February, with financing offers continuing [6] - Huawei's Hongmeng Zhixing saw a year-on-year delivery increase of 31.1% but a month-on-month decrease of 51.3% to 28,000 units [6] Group 4: Upcoming Product Launches and Financial Performance - The industry anticipates a surge of new vehicle launches from multiple manufacturers in March and April, with a focus on financial performance amid rising costs [7][8] - Tesla is expected to launch the third-generation Optimus humanoid robot in Q1 2026, presenting potential investment opportunities in components related to domestic and international robot mass production [8]

Tesla China Officially Posts New Model YL Video On Weibo 🇨🇳Tesla’s Lead Engineer and global design team features the Model YL: a longer, three-row, six-seat version built with the China team as the ultimate family EV.It features a 150mm longer wheelbase, bigger cabin, second-row captain’s chairs, upgraded 16” front display, 19-speaker premium audio, and improved HVAC for third-row comfort.It also adds wider rear tires, refined aerodynamics with a new spoiler (up to 100kg downforce), better crash protection ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from Everbright Securities highlights the focus on AI transformation in the automotive industry, particularly among new energy vehicle (NEV) manufacturers, while also addressing the pressure from rising raw material prices affecting profit margins. Group 1: AI Transformation in Automotive Industry - New energy vehicle companies are actively transitioning towards AI, especially in humanoid robotics, with Tesla planning to convert its Model S/X production line for humanoid robots, Xiaopeng announcing mass production of humanoid robots by 2026, and Li Auto establishing a humanoid robot team [1] Group 2: January NEV Performance - In January, the performance of NEVs was weak, with Li Auto's deliveries down 7.5% year-on-year and 37.5% month-on-month to 27,668 units; NIO's deliveries increased by 96.1% year-on-year but decreased by 43.5% month-on-month to 27,182 units; Xiaopeng's deliveries fell 34.1% year-on-year and 46.6% month-on-month to 20,011 units [1] Group 3: New Model Launches - Various NEV manufacturers launched updated models in January to meet tax requirements and enhance product competitiveness, including BYD's long-range versions of the Qin and Sea models, Xiaopeng's new P7+ and G7 models, and AITO's M7 long-range version [2] Group 4: Increased Purchase Incentives - Tesla is offering significant purchase incentives, including an 8,000 yuan insurance subsidy and low-interest financing for its Model 3 and Model Y vehicles, with delivery timelines ranging from 1 to 6 weeks [3] - Li Auto has maintained short delivery timelines for several models and extended purchase subsidies into February, while NIO and Xiaopeng have also introduced low-interest financing options across their vehicle ranges [4]

Group 1 - The core strategy of automakers has shifted to offering 7-year ultra-low interest loans, marking a new phase in market competition [2][4] - Tesla initiated this trend with a unique 7-year loan plan, offering monthly payments as low as 1,800 yuan for the Model 3 and 2,200 yuan for the Model Y, significantly easing the financial burden on families [3][4] - Other automakers like Xiaomi, Li Auto, and Xpeng quickly followed suit, introducing similar financing options, which has intensified the competition in the market [4][5] Group 2 - Traditional brands are also participating in this financial strategy, with companies like Dongfeng and Geely launching their own 7-year low-interest plans to attract consumers [5][8] - The aggressive reduction of monthly payments aims to stimulate sales, although the effectiveness of this approach remains uncertain [5][8] - The financial strategies employed by leading automakers leverage their strong cash reserves and profitability, allowing them to offer such low-interest loans [7][8] Group 3 - The competitive landscape is shifting, with larger companies able to absorb the costs of low-interest loans, while smaller firms may struggle to keep up without incurring losses [8][9] - The financial tactics being used are seen as a response to market pressures and technological advancements, with a potential shift from price competition to a focus on technology [9][10] - The long-term implications of these financing strategies could lead to market saturation and affect the second-hand car market, as consumers perceive new cars as more affordable [8][9]

Group 1: Automotive Sector Overview - The automotive sector is currently experiencing weak performance during the off-season, but market pessimism regarding sales expectations is gradually stabilizing, indicating a potential bottoming out of negative sentiment [1] - Tesla's recent quarterly report shows a year-on-year increase in gross profit for Q4 2025, with gross margin reaching a two-year high, driven by higher sales prices in the Asia-Pacific region and an increase in FSD subscriptions [1] - Capital expenditures for Tesla in 2026 are expected to exceed $20 billion, focusing on computing infrastructure and new factory capacity expansion [1] Group 2: Autonomous Driving Developments - 2026 is anticipated to be a pivotal year for the commercialization of autonomous driving, with Tesla's FSD subscription rates increasing significantly throughout 2025 [2] - The FSD subscription model will shift to a monthly subscription starting in 2026, with a current fee of $99 per month [2] - As of the end of 2025, FSD has accumulated over 7 billion miles (approximately 11.5 billion kilometers) of driving distance, with ongoing localization efforts in China and Europe pending regulatory approval [2] Group 3: Humanoid Robotics Sector - The robotics sector is experiencing volatility, with recent adjustments in trading volumes and external rumors affecting market sentiment [3] - Key catalysts for the T-chain include the release of Gen3 in Q1 2025 and the commencement of overseas production capacity construction later in the year [3] - There is a positive outlook for specific investment targets within the robotics sector, focusing on high-probability Tesla supply chain participants and undervalued companies with growth potential [3] Group 4: Commercial Vehicle Outlook - The heavy-duty truck and bus segments are expected to benefit from policy support for domestic demand and ongoing export growth in 2026 [4] - Weichai Power is favored due to the recovery of domestic bidding and the pressing electricity shortages in North America, which are expected to boost market expectations for its products [4] - Recommended stocks include Jianghuai Automobile, Hengbo Technology, Longsheng Technology, Weichai Power, Yutong Bus, King Long Automobile, and Cao Cao Mobility, focusing on low-valuation leaders with strong performance [4]

Group 1: Automotive Sector Overview - The automotive sector is currently experiencing a weak performance during the off-season, but market pessimism regarding sales expectations is gradually stabilizing, indicating a potential bottoming out of negative sentiment [1] - Tesla's recent quarterly report shows a year-on-year increase in gross profit for Q4 2025, with gross margin reaching a two-year high, driven by higher sales prices in the Asia-Pacific region and an increase in FSD subscriptions [1] - Capital expenditures for Tesla in 2026 are expected to exceed $20 billion, focusing on computing infrastructure and new factory capacity expansion [1] Group 2: Autonomous Driving Developments - 2026 is anticipated to be a pivotal year for the commercialization of autonomous driving, with Tesla's FSD subscription rates increasing significantly throughout 2025 [2] - By the end of 2025, Tesla's FSD has accumulated over 7 billion miles (approximately 11.5 billion kilometers) of driving distance, with ongoing localization efforts in China and Europe pending regulatory approvals [2] - Tesla is shifting its strategic focus from hardware sales to physical AI, including FSD iterations, Robotaxi services, and the production of Cybercab models [2] Group 3: Humanoid Robots and Supply Chain Updates - The humanoid robot sector is experiencing volatility, with recent adjustments in trading volumes and external rumors affecting market sentiment [3] - Key catalysts for the T-chain include the release of Gen3 in Q1 2025 and the commencement of overseas production capacity and mass production later in the year [3] - There is a positive outlook for specific investment targets within the T-chain, including Tesla-related high-probability segments and undervalued companies with growth potential [3] Group 4: Commercial Vehicles Outlook - The heavy-duty truck and bus segments are expected to benefit from policy support for domestic demand and ongoing export growth in 2026 [4] - Weichai Power is favored in the heavy-duty truck sector due to increased domestic bidding and market expectations for product volume growth [4] - In the bus sector, Yutong and King Long are highlighted for their potential upside, driven by export growth and favorable valuation margins [4]

Core Viewpoint - Despite the current pain in the automotive market due to policy shifts, experts believe this is a phase of adjustment that will ultimately benefit the market's transition to high-quality development [1][12]. Group 1: Current Market Conditions - The automotive market is experiencing a significant downturn, with retail sales of passenger vehicles dropping to 679,000 units in early January 2026, a decrease of 28% year-on-year and 37% month-on-month [3]. - New energy vehicles (NEVs) have seen a rare and substantial decline, with retail sales at 312,000 units, down 16% year-on-year and 52% month-on-month, leading to a drop in NEV penetration rate from 59.1% in December to 45.9% in January [3][5]. Group 2: Policy Adjustments - The decline in the automotive market is largely attributed to policy adjustments, including a transitional period where local governments' subsidy policies were not yet in place, causing consumers to delay purchases [5]. - From January 1, 2026, the exemption from purchase tax for NEVs has ended, with a new 5% tax introduced, increasing the cost of purchasing NEVs significantly [5][6]. - The new subsidy policy has shifted from fixed amounts to a percentage of the new car price, resulting in reduced subsidies for certain models and further increasing purchase costs [6]. Group 3: Manufacturer Responses - In response to the policy changes, several automakers have introduced temporary subsidy measures to mitigate the impact on consumers, such as increasing discounts on specific models [9]. - Many manufacturers are offering purchase tax subsidies and trade-in incentives to help offset the increased costs for consumers [9]. Group 4: Future Market Outlook - Experts predict that the automotive market will see a shift towards higher-end models due to the new subsidy policies, which favor mid to high-end vehicles, while low-end models may face pressure [12]. - The overall sales volume for 2026 is expected to remain flat or see slight growth, with a projected retail volume of approximately 24 million units, and NEV sales expected to reach 14.6 million units, a 13% increase year-on-year [14].