Core Viewpoint - The traditional consumption sector in China is expected to recover, and there is no need for excessive pessimism. The consumption market is showing significant differentiation, moving away from homogenization towards personalized choices driven by consumer characteristics [2][3]. Group 1: Industry Trends - The consumption industry is entering a new adjustment period post-2022, influenced by the AI wave, leading to the emergence of a "super consumer" and "super entrepreneur" era [3][31]. - The overall valuation of the food and beverage industry is currently at a reasonable low level, with historical and international comparisons indicating a moderate undervaluation [2][58]. - The consumer demand is becoming more personalized and segmented, moving away from the previous era of mass production [36][61]. Group 2: Investment Opportunities - Companies should focus on their second growth curve, exploring new demands and innovative business models to adapt to the changing market [10][22]. - There are four key directions for companies seeking sustainable growth: new product varieties and models, concentric diversification, international expansion, and comprehensive transformation [18][19][21]. - The consumer goods sector's core value lies in long-term, stable, and sustainable performance, with a significant portion of valuation based on long-term earnings rather than short-term fluctuations [65][66]. Group 3: Specific Sector Insights - The white liquor industry is expected to experience a cyclical downturn, but quality business models will still provide opportunities for market share recovery [43][45]. - The durable goods sector, including automotive and home appliances, is seeing a shift towards international markets, with companies leveraging their manufacturing capabilities in China while enhancing product design for overseas markets [59]. - The service consumption sector aligns well with the characteristics of the super consumer and super entrepreneur era, emphasizing consumer-centric product development and marketing strategies [60][62].

Core Viewpoints - The traditional consumption market in China is expected to recover, and there is no need for excessive pessimism [9] - The consumption market is showing significant differentiation, moving away from the homogenized phase of mass production to a stage where consumers choose products based on their individual characteristics [44] - The rise of AI is ushering in an era of super consumers and super entrepreneurs, where consumer power is increasingly shifting [38][46] Industry Analysis - The food and beverage industry is currently valued at a reasonable low level, with overall valuations being moderate to undervalued [70][78] - The consumption industry has entered a new adjustment period post-2022, driven by the AI wave, leading to the emergence of super consumers and super entrepreneurs [4][40] - The industry is experiencing a cyclical pattern that is closely related to its own development characteristics and is not significantly affected by economic growth rates [24][51] Investment Opportunities - Companies that can adapt to new consumer demands and innovate will find growth opportunities, particularly in new product varieties and business models [16][19] - Diversification strategies, such as concentric diversification, can help companies navigate challenging market conditions [19][20] - International expansion is becoming a clear strategy for many companies, with a focus on markets like Southeast Asia and Africa [22][73] Consumer Behavior - The shift in consumer power means that products must be designed around consumer needs, leading to a reversal of traditional business logic [75] - The demand for personalized and segmented products is increasing, reflecting a more individualized consumer landscape [44][76] Long-term Value - The core value of consumer goods lies in their long-term, stable, and sustainable performance rather than short-term fluctuations [78][80] - Companies with strong business models and the ability to adapt to market changes will continue to thrive, even in challenging economic conditions [53][59]

全球啤酒行业正经历从周期性波动到结构性转变的深刻变革 智通财经APP获悉，海通国际发布研报称，全球啤酒行业正经历从周期性波动到结构性转变的深刻变 革，健康意识觉醒与代际消费变迁成为核心驱动因素，酿啤酒与无酒精啤酒快速崛起，持续蚕食传统啤 酒市场份额。与此同时，软饮料销量保持稳健增长，对酒精饮料形成持续分流。中国企业国际化尚处初 级阶段，未来应采取稳健策略：先通过出口试水市场反应，优先布局"一带一路"国家；采用合资模式借 力本土资源，设定准入门槛，避免激进并购。全球啤酒龙头的发展经验表明，运营效率是当前中国酒企 最可行的突破点。 海通国际主要观点如下： 国际化：模式选择与风险管控 国际化是突破本土市场天花板的关键路径，且国际化程度高的企业估值显著溢价。百威英博四次关键并 购成为全球霸主，喜力在70个国家市场份额排名前二，海外收入占比达78%。朝日通过收购欧洲与澳洲 业务，实现55%的海外收入占比；麒麟则因本土化不足与政治风险评估缺失，在巴西、缅甸等地投资遭 遇重大损失。 中国企业国际化尚处初级阶段，2024年啤酒出口仅占产量2%。未来应采取稳健策略：先通过出口试水 市场反应，优先布局"一带一路"国家；采用合资模 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating to multiple companies in the Chinese staples sector, including Guizhou Moutai, Wuliangye, and Yanjing Beer among others [1]. Core Insights - The global beer industry is undergoing a profound transformation, shifting from cyclical fluctuations to structural changes, driven by health consciousness and generational shifts in consumption [3][10]. - In China, the beer market faces unique challenges, including a transition to value-driven consumption, the failure of traditional distribution models, and intensified cross-industry competition [17][18]. Summary by Sections Global Beer Industry Transformation - Global beer sales are projected to decline by 1% in 2024, remaining below pre-pandemic levels, with significant shifts in consumer behavior noted, particularly among younger generations [10][12]. - Health awareness is leading to a reduction in alcohol consumption, with 49% of American consumers planning to drink less, a trend that is even more pronounced among Generation Z [12][17]. Strategic Directions for Chinese Beer Companies - **Leadership and Efficiency**: Establishing a dominant position in the local market is crucial for global expansion. Companies should focus on high-end product quality, optimizing cost structures, and building strong regional brands before expanding nationally [4][19]. - **Diversification**: Successful diversification should focus on product synergy, channel reuse, and brand extension, with a high success rate in expanding into related categories like low-alcohol and soft drinks [5][37]. - **Internationalization**: Companies should adopt a cautious approach to internationalization, starting with exports and partnerships in Belt and Road countries to mitigate risks [6][7]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that Chinese beer companies should enhance operational efficiency, innovate product offerings tailored to local tastes, and pursue diversification and internationalization strategies that are risk-controlled [7][34]. - Key investment lines include operational improvements leading to value reassessment, beneficiaries of structural upgrades, and pioneers in emerging categories [7][34].

Asahi Group Holdings is to pay $2.3bn for Diageo’s business in Kenya, which includes the UK group’s majority stake in East African Breweries. The Super Dry brewer is buying Diageo’s 65% stake in East African Breweries (EABL) and its 53.7% shareholding in Kenyan spirits group UDVK. Earlier this year, it was reported Diageo had hired banking advisers to carry out a review of EABL, which markets beer brands including Tusker and Serengeti Lager. Asahi said the business “offers high growth potential and sta ...

Core Insights - Japan's largest brewer, Asahi Group Holdings Ltd., is facing significant operational challenges due to a cyberattack that has disrupted its supply chain and internal systems for over a month [1][2][3] Company Impact - The ransomware attack disabled Asahi's online order and shipment processing system, forcing the company to revert to manual processing methods, which has severely slowed operations to just 10% of normal shipment levels [2][3] - December, typically Asahi's strongest sales month, is particularly affected, with Super Dry accounting for 12% of annual sales volume [3] - Asahi has lost its position as the number one brewer in Japan's retail beer market to Kirin, which has seen strong sales growth following the attack [9] Competitor Dynamics - Competitors such as Kirin, Suntory, and Sapporo are capitalizing on Asahi's supply issues by replacing Asahi's dispensing units and branded glassware, making it difficult for bars to revert back to Asahi products once supply normalizes [7] - Kirin and Suntory are adjusting their shipments to meet surging demand, while Sapporo has increased production to capitalize on the situation [10] Market Conditions - The cyberattack is part of a broader trend of cyber incidents affecting Japanese companies, with other firms like Askul Corp. and Nikkei Inc. also experiencing disruptions [4] - Despite the challenges, some retail outlets still have Asahi products in stock, indicating a mixed supply situation across different sales channels [11] Financial Outlook - Analysts have cut Asahi's core operating profit forecast to a ¥15 billion loss for the fourth quarter due to the disruption and increased marketing costs to regain customers, with expectations of missing full-year guidance by 13% [13] - Asahi's recovery is hindered by outdated systems that were in the process of integration when the cyberattack occurred, highlighting vulnerabilities in its operational infrastructure [14] Industry Trends - Japan's beer market is evolving, with domestic consumption stagnating due to an aging population, prompting brewers to seek growth overseas [17] - The home market remains crucial, accounting for 46% of Asahi's total revenue last year, emphasizing the importance of on-premise sales for brand loyalty [17][18]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - Consumer confidence in Japan rebounded in August, with the consumer confidence index rising to 34.9, up from 33.7 in July, marking the highest level since January [1][7] - The beverage sector experienced a sluggish peak season due to extreme high temperatures, leading to significant declines in sales for soft drinks and beer [2][14] - The retail sector saw a return to positive growth after seven months, with department store sales increasing by 2.6% year-on-year [2][33] Summary by Sections Macroeconomic Overview - Inflationary pressures eased, with the core CPI rising by 2.7% year-on-year in August, down from 3.1% in July, the lowest since March [1][9] - Real wages fell by 0.2% year-on-year in July, marking the seventh consecutive month of decline, despite nominal wages reaching a yearly high due to summer bonuses [1][7] Beverage and Beer Industry - The beverage and beer sectors faced a "peak season not booming" scenario, with extreme heat suppressing outdoor consumption and previous price increases affecting sales [2][14] - Major companies like Suntory and Asahi reported significant declines in soft drink sales, with Suntory down 18% and Asahi down 8% year-on-year in August [3][21] Essential Consumer Goods - Essential retail sales for major players like Aeon and 7-Eleven showed modest growth, with Aeon reporting a 2.1% increase in same-store sales [3][15] - The overall retail environment was impacted by high temperatures, which shifted consumer preferences towards indoor products [3][15] Discretionary Consumer Goods - The restaurant sector saw strong performance, with companies like Saizeriya and McDonald's reporting year-on-year same-store sales growth of 19.3% and 5.3% respectively [4][26] - Clothing retailers like ABC-MART and Uniqlo also experienced positive sales growth, with same-store sales increasing by 8.5% and 5.3% respectively [4][30] Tourism and Hospitality - The tourism sector continued its robust recovery, with foreign visitors to Japan reaching 3.428 million in August, a 16.9% increase year-on-year [2][38] - Domestic travel demand surged during the Obon holiday, contributing to increased hotel revenues [2][38] Stock Market Performance - The consumer sector underperformed the broader market in August, with the food and beverage index rising by only 1.3% compared to the overall market [5] - Investment recommendations focus on companies with optimistic profit outlooks, such as Saizeriya and Asahi Group [5]

资料显示，朝日啤酒此前已在日本本土市场进行过多轮提价。下面，我们一起关注。 "较大压力" 小食代看到，这份9月10日发出、落款为朝日啤酒 (中国) 投资有限公司广州分公司（下称"朝日啤酒广州"）的价格调整通知显示，朝日啤酒广州向合作伙 伴及客户（即经销商）表示，决定自2025年9月25日起，对两款进口产品的供应价格进行调整。 连在"西餐界蜜雪冰城"萨莉亚都能买到的朝日啤酒，日前传来了新动向。 小食代从业内获悉，近日，朝日啤酒向国内渠道商发布通知称，由于各类成本上升对运营造成压力，自昨日（9月25日）起对面向经销商供应的两款进口 啤酒（朝日超爽啤酒135ml*24罐、朝日超爽啤酒2L*6罐）进行提价，每箱分别上调5元和20元。 根据该通知，涉及调价的产品包括：朝日超爽啤酒135ml*24罐（输入），每箱单价上调5元；朝日超爽啤酒2L*6罐（输入），每箱单价上调20元。通知 称，为了尽量降低此次价格调整给经销商带来的影响，9月24日前下单并付款的订单仍将按照原价格执行。 对于提价原因，上述通知解释称，"当前全球市场环境复杂多变，各类成本持续上升，给我们的运营带来了较大压力。"为此，通知表示，为确保能够持续 提供高 ...

Investment Rating - The report suggests a focus on Japanese consumer companies with optimistic profit growth prospects, including Asics, Pan Pacific International Holdings, Fast Retailing, and Asahi Group [4]. Core Insights - Domestic demand in Japan is stabilizing, while duty-free sales are under pressure due to a significant decline in tourist spending [2][12]. - The consumer confidence index in Japan rose from a two-year low of 31.2 in April to 32.8 in May, indicating a slight recovery in consumer sentiment [6]. - The core CPI in Japan increased by 3.7% year-on-year in May, remaining above the central bank's target for the 38th consecutive month, driven primarily by high food and energy prices [8]. Summary by Sections Macro - The consumer confidence index increased to 32.8 in May from 31.2 in April, with specific indicators showing improvements in overall living standards and income growth expectations [6]. - The nominal wage in April grew by 2.3% year-on-year, but real wages fell by 1.8% due to high inflation, impacting purchasing power [6][8]. Industry - Retail sales growth in essential goods is primarily driven by price increases, with a notable decline in beverage and beer sales [12]. - Duty-free sales in department stores dropped by 40% in May, contributing to a fourth consecutive month of year-on-year sales decline [2][12]. - The restaurant sector showed strong growth, particularly in low-cost dining, while clothing retail experienced an increase in foot traffic [12]. Essential Consumption - Drugstore same-store sales showed positive growth, with PPIH and 7-Eleven reporting increases of 7.7% and 3.1% respectively [14]. - Beverage sales continued to decline, with Asahi and Kirin reporting year-on-year revenue drops of 6% and 9% respectively [18]. Discretionary Consumption - The restaurant sector saw significant growth, with companies like Food&Life and McDonald's reporting same-store sales increases of 18.9% and 14.7% respectively [25]. - Clothing retailers such as Uniqlo and Workman also reported strong same-store sales growth of 13.1% and 11.4% respectively [27]. Stock Market - In May, the Tokyo Stock Exchange index for textiles and apparel rose by 6.3%, while the retail and food and beverage sectors saw increases of 3.0% and 0.4% respectively [4][40].