如果2026年是库克担任苹果CEO的最后一年，他将华丽退场。《金融时报》此前报道称，苹果正在加紧 推进接班人计划。这似乎愈发表明，这家卓越的消费科技巨头很快将迎来新的掌舵人。 以下是文章全文： 凤凰网科技讯 北京时间11月21日，苹果公司CEO蒂姆·库克(Tim Cook)或在明年卸任。《金融时报》编 辑理查德·沃特斯(Richard Waters)发表观点文章称，苹果新任CEO不能安于现状，应该更具冒险精神， 大胆押注AI等新的技术潮流。 过去一个月，iPhone 17的强劲需求一度将苹果的市值推高至4万亿美元以上。加上库克上任之初推动的 大规模股票回购这一强劲助力，苹果股价自2011年他接任以来已上涨20倍。 但是，在AI革命中采取被动跟随姿态显然存在风险。若大语言模型成为创新核心，而苹果仅充当"收租 人"，将定义下一代数字体验的主导权拱手相让，必将使其陷入尴尬境地。 更关键的是，倘若大语言模型演变为实质性的新操作系统，它们将具有战略性重要性。OpenAI近期展 示的ChatGPT内直接调用应用功能，正是对iPhone应用商店模式的直接挑战。 然而，在AI正引发数十年来科技界最深刻变革的当下，库克的离任也 ...

Core Insights - The AI glasses market is experiencing rapid growth, with major tech companies like Google, Apple, and Meta accelerating their investments in this sector [1] Group 1: Meta's AI Glasses - Meta has launched its first AI glasses in collaboration with a traditional eyewear brand, priced at $799, featuring real-time conversation subtitles, translation, and photo/video capabilities [2] - The glasses utilize a wristband to detect muscle signals for gesture control, enhancing user interaction [2][4] Group 2: Amazon's AI Glasses - Amazon is developing AI glasses specifically for delivery personnel, designed to project navigation information directly into their field of vision, improving safety and efficiency [5][7] Group 3: Apple's AI Glasses Strategy - Apple is shifting its focus towards AI glasses, reportedly pausing the development of a budget version of the Vision Pro headset and planning to release at least two models by 2027-2028 [8] Group 4: Google's Open Platform Approach - Google is creating an open and scalable ecosystem for AI glasses through the "Android XR" platform, collaborating with multiple manufacturers, indicating a strategic focus on the potential of AI glasses as the next human-computer interaction interface [10] Group 5: Market Trends and Projections - The AI glasses market is evolving in two main directions: as smartphone accessories to enhance functionality and as standalone devices that may eventually replace smartphones [12] - According to IDC, global AI glasses shipments are expected to reach 4.065 million units by mid-2025, marking a 64.2% year-on-year increase, with projections of over 40 million units by 2029 [14]

Core Viewpoint - Apple is planning to launch a foldable iPhone and a new version of Siri based on Google's Gemini model in 2026, while also entering the smart home market. However, the company faces significant challenges, including being late to the smart home sector and regulatory pressures. The execution in 2026 will be crucial for Apple's dominance in the next decade [1][3][19]. Product Launches and Innovations - Apple is expected to release the long-awaited foldable iPhone in 2026, along with a new Siri voice assistant powered by Google's Gemini model. The company will also introduce its first smart display device and equip several products, including the MacBook Pro, with OLED technology [3][6]. - The product lineup for early 2026 includes the iPhone 17e, entry-level iPad with A18 chip, iPad Air with M4 processor, and new MacBook models [6][7]. Financial Performance and Projections - Apple management anticipates a holiday quarter revenue growth of 10% to 12%, reaching approximately $137 billion to $139 billion, which is about double Wall Street's expectations. This quarter is projected to be the highest in terms of revenue and iPhone sales in Apple's history [4][5]. Strategic Challenges - Apple is entering the smart home market late, needing to overcome the strong positions established by Google and Amazon over the past decade. The foldable iPhone will also be released years after competitors, raising questions about market acceptance [3][18]. - Regulatory and geopolitical risks are significant, with potential adjustments to the App Store business model that could impact revenue from developers. Tariff threats remain, with Apple having previously absorbed billions in losses due to trade policies [15][17]. AI Strategy and Brand Image - Apple is betting on a revamped Siri, which will utilize a custom model based on Google's Gemini, aiming to enhance its AI capabilities and user experience. However, there are uncertainties regarding user acceptance and the ability to restore Siri's brand image [8][10][9]. Conclusion on Future Dominance - Despite optimistic revenue forecasts, Apple must demonstrate its ability to not only launch new products but also achieve meaningful market success. The company's leadership in the next decade will hinge on its execution in 2026 [19].

Group 1 - Apple's CEO Tim Cook announced plans to integrate more third-party AI tools into its operating system ecosystem, setting an open tone for the company's future AI strategy [1] - Apple has already begun embedding OpenAI's ChatGPT into its voice assistant Siri, and there are ongoing rumors about collaborations with Google Gemini and emerging AI companies like Anthropic and Perplexity [2] - Cook revealed during a financial call that Siri is undergoing significant upgrades, with a complete overhaul planned for next year, addressing long-standing user criticisms [4] Group 2 - Apple reported fourth-quarter revenue of $102.5 billion, an 8% year-over-year increase, indicating strong performance despite the recent iPhone 17 launch [6] - There are indications that Apple and Google may collaborate on advanced AI search features for Siri, with Google CEO Sundar Pichai confirming development for iPhone [6] - The Mac product line generated $8.72 billion in revenue, while iPad revenue reached $6.95 billion, and the services sector, including Apple TV+ and Apple Music, saw subscription revenue grow to $28.8 billion [9]

Core Viewpoint - Apple predicts significant sales growth during the holiday season following the launch of the new iPhone, reinforcing the belief that its flagship product remains the core engine of the company's growth [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - In Q4, Apple reported a sales increase of 7.9% to $102.5 billion, slightly above analyst expectations of $102.2 billion [2] - Earnings per share were $1.85, exceeding the average analyst forecast of $1.77 [2] - The services segment showed strong growth, with revenue rising 15% to $28.8 billion, surpassing analyst expectations of $28.2 billion [3] Group 2: Regional Performance - Revenue from Greater China declined by 3.6% to $14.5 billion, significantly below the analyst forecast of $16.4 billion, due to intense competition from local smartphone manufacturers [2] - Despite the decline, the CEO expressed confidence in returning to growth in the region during the upcoming quarter [2] Group 3: Product Performance - iPhone revenue grew by 6.1% to $49 billion, benefiting from the new model launch, although it fell short of the expected $49.3 billion due to supply constraints [2] - The new iPhone 17 series saw strong initial demand, particularly for the higher-end iPhone 17 Pro model, which contributed to an increase in average selling price [3] - The Mac segment experienced a 13% revenue increase to $8.73 billion, exceeding analyst expectations of $8.6 billion [3] Group 4: Challenges and Future Outlook - The wearables, home, and accessories segment saw a slight revenue decline of less than 1% to $9.01 billion, which was less severe than analysts had feared [4] - The company faces regulatory pressures regarding App Store policies, which could impact software and subscription revenue, although it recently won a legal victory regarding its search partnership with Google [3][4] - New product launches, including smart glasses and next-generation smart home devices, are expected to reignite market interest in the wearables segment in the coming years [4]

Group 1 - Apple is planning a display technology upgrade across its mainstream product line, including iPad mini, iPad Air, and MacBook Air, following the successful implementation of OLED screens in the iPad Pro series [1][2] - The first OLED panel will be introduced in the iPad Pro in 2024, featuring a dual-layer structure and ProMotion adaptive refresh rate technology, achieving industry-leading specifications such as a 1,000,000:1 contrast ratio, 1,600 nits peak brightness, and 240Hz touch sampling rate [1] - Samsung Display and LG Display have received initial OLED orders from Apple, with Samsung exclusively supplying panels for the iPad mini and LG responsible for screens for the iPad Air and MacBook Air [1] Group 2 - The OLED rollout is not just a hardware upgrade but a crucial step in building a "spatial computing" ecosystem, aiming to redefine the interaction paradigm between humans, machines, and environments [2]

Group 1: Market Growth and Trends - The AI glasses market is experiencing unprecedented growth, with global shipments expected to reach 4.065 million units in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 64.2% [1] - By 2029, global shipments are projected to exceed 40 million units, with China leading the growth with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 55.6% from 2024 to 2029 [1] - AI glasses are seen as a key entry point for the next generation of human-computer interaction, revitalizing the consumer electronics market [1] Group 2: Industry Competition and Company Strategies - Major tech companies are entering the AI glasses market, with Meta's Ray-Ban Display smart glasses selling out in multiple locations and being priced at 15,000 yuan in China [3] - Apple has shifted its strategy from upgrading the Vision Pro headset to developing smart glasses to compete with Meta's offerings, indicating a focus on augmented reality (AR) glasses [3] - Market research indicates a decline in demand for VR headsets, while AR smart glasses are becoming the new focal point for innovation [3] Group 3: Financial Performance and Investment Trends - The enthusiasm for AI glasses has led to significant investment in related stocks, with over 1 billion yuan net bought in AI glasses concept stocks in the first three quarters of the year [4] - Companies like Luxshare Precision have reported substantial net buying amounts, indicating strong market interest [4] - Several companies, including SuoBeide and others, have seen their net profits increase significantly, with predictions of further profit growth for companies like Sanan Optoelectronics and TCL Technology by 2025 [4]

Group 1: Market Overview - The global smart glasses market is expected to reach 4.065 million units shipped in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 64.2% [1] - By 2029, the global smart glasses market is projected to exceed 40 million units, with China's market share steadily increasing and a five-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 55.6% from 2024 to 2029, the highest globally [1] Group 2: Company Developments - Meta has launched the Ray-Ban Display smart glasses at a starting price of $799, which has seen high consumer demand, with retail stores nearly sold out and trial appointments fully booked before November [2] - Apple is shifting focus from upgrading the Vision Pro headset to developing smart glasses to compete with Meta's products, as AR smart glasses become a new focal point amid declining VR headset demand [2] - Lixun Precision has reported a net buy amount of 5.007 billion yuan in the AI glasses sector, indicating a strong market position [3] Group 3: Financial Performance - In the first three quarters of 2023, Lixun Precision, Lingyi iTech, and Rockchip reported net profits exceeding 500 million yuan, with Lixun Precision leading at 11.117 billion yuan [4] - Several companies, including Suobede, have seen their net profits double year-on-year, with Suobede's growth rate reaching 1285.39% [4] - Analysts predict that 11 AI glasses concept stocks will see their net profits double in 2025, with Sanan Optoelectronics and TCL Technology leading the expected growth rates at 294.41% and 289.41%, respectively [4]

Core Insights - Apple CEO Tim Cook will turn 65 on November 1, and while he has not officially announced retirement, the company is reportedly preparing for a smooth leadership transition [1] - Hardware engineering senior vice president John Ternus is seen as the most likely successor to Cook, with the company actively promoting him [1][6] - Ternus has been given significant responsibilities and visibility, indicating a potential shift in leadership strategy [8] Group 1: Leadership Transition - Tim Cook has been CEO since 2011, succeeding Steve Jobs [1] - Speculation about the next CEO has been ongoing, with Ternus emerging as a central figure in succession plans [1][6] - Ternus has been featured prominently in recent product launches, suggesting a strategic push from Apple to prepare him for a leadership role [1] Group 2: John Ternus Profile - John Ternus, aged 50, is a mechanical engineer and has been with Apple since 2001, playing a key role in product design during a pivotal time for the company [3][5] - He has held various positions, including vice president of hardware engineering, and was promoted to senior vice president in January 2021 [5] - Ternus's background in hardware engineering and his experience with key products like AirPods and iPhones position him well for future leadership [5] Group 3: Reasons for Ternus's Favorability - The departure of COO Jeff Williams has elevated Ternus as the leading candidate for succession [6] - At 50, Ternus is the same age as Cook was when he took over, suggesting he could lead Apple for over a decade [6] - Ternus is well-regarded by Apple enthusiasts and has gained Cook's trust, indicating strong internal support for his potential leadership [8] Group 4: Strategic Implications - The choice of Ternus may reflect Apple's future strategic direction, particularly in emerging technologies like mixed reality and artificial intelligence [8] - Analysts suggest that the board may prefer a technically skilled leader to navigate the next chapter for Apple, especially given the challenges in cutting-edge technology areas [8] - There is speculation that Cook may remain involved with the company in some capacity after stepping down, similar to other tech leaders [8]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" [7][14] Core Insights - Trump announced an additional 100% tariff on all goods imported from China, effective November 1, 2025, leading to a total tariff rate exceeding 130% [2] - The impact of tariffs on fruit chain equipment companies should not be overestimated, as domestic suppliers are irreplaceable for Apple, which may shift resources towards cost-reducing automation and new product lines [2] - Apple is prioritizing the development of AI glasses over the low-cost Vision Pro headset, with plans to preview the product in 2025 and release it in 2027 [3] - The smart glasses market is experiencing significant growth, with global sales of AI glasses expected to reach 14.5 million units by 2025, and a compound annual growth rate exceeding 50% from 2025 to 2029 [4] Summary by Sections Tariff Impact - Trump’s new tariffs will add to existing tariffs, creating a challenging environment for imports from China, but the effect on key suppliers may be mitigated due to their essential role in Apple's supply chain [2] Product Development - Apple is shifting focus to AI glasses, which may not include a display and will be designed to work with iPhones, indicating a strategic pivot in product development [3] Market Trends - The smart glasses market is heating up, with Meta's smart glasses selling out in retail stores and significant growth projected in the coming years [4] Investment Recommendations - Suggested companies to watch include those involved in foldable screen hinges, panel equipment, liquid cooling pumps, automation assembly, and 3D printing applications [5]