机构：第一上海 研究员：李卓群 1H 业绩整体表现超预期：7 月15 日泡泡玛特发布1H 业绩预告，预计收入同比增长不低于200%（根据 测算对应收入不低于136.7 亿元，Q1/Q2 同比增速分别约为170%/230%，Q2 较Q1 增速进一步提升）， 净利润（不包括未完成统计的金融工具的公允价值变动损益）同比增长不低于350%（根据测算对应净 利润不低于43.4 亿元），超市场预期。公司业绩同比大幅增长主要由于：1）公司品牌及旗下IP 在全球 认可度进一步提升，多样化的产品品类促公司收入增长，各区域市场收入均实现持续高速增长；2）海 外收入占比持续提升，收入结构的变化对毛利、净利均产生积极影响。同时，规模效应使净利润显著增 加；3）持续优化产品成本，加强费用管控，提升盈利能力。 净利率创新高：基于1H 收入和净利润预期下限测算，公司上半年净利率约为32%，同比大幅提升约 10pct，创历史新高。公司盈利能力显着提升主要受益于同店业绩的快速增长优化了经营杠杆，也使规 模效应得到充分发挥。同时，高利润率的海外业务占比持续提升，其中北美市场表现尤为突出，在明星 效应和社交媒体传播的双重推动下实现爆发式增长。值得 ...

IP 生态全面升级，labubu 3.0 二手市场价格趋稳。头部IP 热销对公司其他IP形成辐射，带动星星人 （6.21 乐园线下演出、7.4 发布单曲）、Crybaby（爱神的眼泪系列毛绒）等IP 多点开花，有望复刻 Labubu 打法成功实现IP 势能提升。新品方面，搪胶品类仍有IP 扩张余力，例如6 月公司推出 HACIPUPU 小熊软糖、SP 光织园2 款搪胶毛绒挂件，市场反馈积极。二手价格方面，labubu3.0 成交均 价经过6 月中旬下跌后，7 月以来逐步企稳。 机构：华创证券 研究员：刘一怡 事项： 根据业绩预告，25H1 收入增速≥200%/对应收入≥136.7 亿元，集团溢利增速≥350%/对应利润≥43.4 亿 元，对应利润率约31.7%（同比+10.6pcts）。25Q2 增长（25Q1 收入增速165%-170%）继续提速。 评论： 风险提示：宏观消费需求弱，渠道拓展不及预期，市场竞争加剧；IP 生命周期存在自然衰减，需持续 注入新IP 等。 国内预计录得亮眼表现，海外市场继续开店。二季度以来公司密集推新，Labubu 怪味便利店系列、 DIMOO 自然系列、PINOJELLY 甜品 ...

机构：海通国际 研究员：胡佳璐/李一腾/刘坤钰 风险提示：经济下滑，行业竞争加剧，门店拓展不及预期，原材料价格上涨。 事件：泡泡玛特于7 月15 日发布1H 业绩预告。预计收入同比增长不低于200%（对应收入不低于136.7 亿元），净利润（除去金融工具的公允价值变动损益）同比增长不低于350%（对应净利润不低于43.4 亿元），业绩超预期。 ①LABUBU 补货预售火爆，全年收入增长可期：4 月24 日发售的THE MONSTERS 前方高能系列 （LABUBU 3.0）销售火爆，首批存货售罄后，公司于6 月18 日以预售方式重新上架系列产品，小程序 发货日期目前已排至9 月26 日，预计将对全年业绩贡献显著。此外，虽二手市场价格有一定程度下降， 但仍溢价明显，表明市场需求仍未被充分满足。②新IP 不断崛起，公司IP 孵化与运营能力持续验证： 除已经成为公司目前第一大IP 的THE MONSTERS 外，CRYBABY 和星星人今年也有明显增长，IP 势 能提升，有持续爆款潜力。其中CRYBABY 凭借在泰国市场的火爆有望提升至公司IP 销售贡献的第三 名（仅次于THE MONSTERS 和MOLLY）。③ ...

Core Viewpoint - The company is expected to achieve significant revenue and profit growth in the first half of 2025, driven by strong domestic and international sales, new product launches, and improved store efficiency [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Performance - The company forecasts over 200% year-on-year revenue growth for the first half of 2025, exceeding 13.67 billion RMB [1]. - Group profit (excluding unrealized gains from financial instruments) is projected to grow by over 350%, reaching at least 4.34 billion RMB [1]. - The profit margin for the first half of 2025 is expected to be 31.7%, an increase of 10.6 percentage points year-on-year, marking a historical high [1]. Group 2: Domestic Growth - The Labubu 3.0 series launched in April has generated high demand, leading to a temporary high premium in the second-hand market [2]. - The company has replenished stock in June to meet consumer demand, resulting in a slight price drop in the second-hand market while still maintaining a premium, indicating sustained IP popularity [2]. - The successful expansion of multiple IPs and the introduction of plush products are expected to enhance average transaction value [2]. Group 3: International Expansion - The company is experiencing rapid growth in Asia and is expanding quickly in Europe and North America, with significant results from its European expansion [2]. - The overseas revenue share is expected to increase in the first half of 2025, supported by strong consumer spending in these regions [2]. - A global organizational restructuring was initiated in April to enhance market operational efficiency and accelerate business development [2]. Group 4: Profit Forecast and Investment Rating - The company has established a competitive advantage through a diverse IP matrix, strong IP operation capabilities, and extensive online and offline channels [3]. - The projected net profits for 2025-2027 are 10.05 billion, 13.11 billion, and 17.02 billion RMB, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 33.8, 25.9, and 19.9 times [3]. - The company maintains a "recommended" rating based on its growth potential and competitive positioning [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Pop Mart International Group Limited [2][5] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve over 200% year-on-year revenue growth in the first half of 2025, exceeding 13.67 billion RMB, with net profit growth of over 350%, reaching at least 4.34 billion RMB [3] - The company's profit margin reached a historical high of 31.7%, an increase of 10.6 percentage points year-on-year, driven by strong sales, new product launches, and overseas expansion [3][4] - The company has established a competitive advantage through a diverse IP matrix, strong IP operation capabilities, and extensive online and offline channels [5] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Revenue for 2023 is projected at 6.30 billion RMB, with a growth rate of 36.46% - By 2025, revenue is expected to reach 31.80 billion RMB, with a growth rate of 143.93% - Net profit for 2023 is estimated at 1.08 billion RMB, with a growth rate of 127.55%, and is projected to reach 10.05 billion RMB by 2025, with a growth rate of 221.41% [6][10] Market Expansion - The company has seen strong domestic growth, particularly with the Labubu 3.0 series, which has generated high demand and maintained premium pricing in the secondary market [4] - Internationally, Pop Mart is expanding rapidly in Asia and making significant inroads in Europe and the Americas, with overseas revenue share increasing in the first half of 2025 [4][5] Future Outlook - The company is expected to continue its high growth trajectory in overseas markets, particularly in high-consumption regions like Europe and the Americas [5] - The financial forecasts for 2025-2027 indicate a steady increase in net profit, with projections of 10.05 billion RMB in 2025, 13.11 billion RMB in 2026, and 17.02 billion RMB in 2027 [6][10]

Group 1 - The stock price of Pop Mart (09992.HK) fell by 3.57% to 253.8 HKD despite a strong earnings forecast, with a market capitalization of 340.8 billion HKD [1] - Pop Mart expects its revenue for the six months ending June 30, 2025, to increase by no less than 200% compared to the same period in 2024, and profits to grow by no less than 350% [3] - For the first half of 2024, Pop Mart's revenue is projected to be approximately 45.6 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 62.0%, potentially exceeding 136 billion RMB [3] Group 2 - The significant revenue growth is attributed to the global recognition of Pop Mart's brand and IP, diverse product categories, and continuous high growth in all regional markets [3] - The overseas revenue proportion is increasing, positively impacting gross profit and net profit, alongside scale effects and improved cost management [3] - The LABUBU IP from the THE MONSTERS series generated 30.4 billion RMB in revenue in 2024, a remarkable year-on-year increase of 726.6% [5] Group 3 - Following a large-scale restock of the LABUBU 3.0 series, the secondary market prices for LABUBU products dropped significantly, leading to a sell-off by scalpers [6] - Pop Mart's stock price reached a historical high of 283.4 HKD on June 12, but subsequently fell by 17.7% over six trading days, resulting in a market value loss of nearly 40 billion HKD [6] - JPMorgan raised its net profit forecast for Pop Mart to 9.4 billion RMB, reaffirming its position as a preferred choice in the Chinese consumer sector with a target price of 340 HKD [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "OUTPERFORM" rating for Pop Mart International [1] Core Views - The company's performance in the first half of 2025 exceeded expectations, with revenue projected to grow by no less than 200% year-on-year, and net profit expected to increase by no less than 350% [12] - The growth is attributed to the global recognition of Pop Mart's IP, diversified product categories driving revenue growth across regions, and improved cost management enhancing profitability [2] Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are RMB 35.1 billion, RMB 53.5 billion, and RMB 69.1 billion, representing year-on-year growth of 169%, 53%, and 29% respectively [5] - Adjusted net profit estimates for the same period are RMB 11.2 billion, RMB 17.8 billion, and RMB 23.8 billion, with corresponding growth rates of 229%, 58%, and 34% [5] - The gross profit margin is expected to improve from 66.8% in 2024 to 74.9% by 2027 [11] Market Position and Strategy - The company has successfully expanded its IP portfolio, with new IPs like CRYBABY gaining traction, indicating a reduced reliance on a few key IPs [4] - The overseas business is growing rapidly, particularly in the U.S., where price increases are expected to enhance regional gross margins [4] - The launch of new product lines, including the independent accessory brand POPOP, aims to broaden the customer base and explore IP value [3]

Core Insights - The article highlights the rise of Chinese brands in the global market, indicating a shift in consumer preferences from Western brands to local alternatives [1][8] - It emphasizes that Chinese consumers are increasingly favoring domestic luxury brands, high-end cosmetics, and local food and beverage options, marking a significant change in consumption patterns [1][4] Group 1: Rise of Chinese Brands - The popularity of the LABUBU toy exemplifies the success of Chinese brands, with its demand leading to a surge in the stock price of its manufacturer, Pop Mart [1][3] - Chinese brands like Kudi and Luckin Coffee are gaining traction by offering quality comparable to international brands like Starbucks at significantly lower prices [3][4] - The jewelry brand Laopu Gold has seen rapid growth, with its average store sales exceeding those of many foreign competitors by at least 50% [4][6] Group 2: Changing Consumer Behavior - Consumers are now willing to pay prices comparable to imported goods for local products, as seen with the high-end tea brand Bawang Chaji, which positions itself as a premium option [4][6] - There is a notable shift in consumer awareness, with younger demographics researching products more thoroughly and seeking local alternatives that offer similar quality at lower prices [6][7] - The success of brands like Mao Geping in the high-end cosmetics market illustrates the changing landscape, as it becomes the only domestic player among the top ten luxury beauty groups in China [6][7] Group 3: Strategic Market Positioning - Many Chinese brands are expanding their presence in lower-tier cities, where consumer activity is reportedly stronger than in major urban centers [7][8] - The strategy of targeting smaller cities has proven effective for brands like Bawang Chaji and Mxue Ice City, which began in less affluent areas before moving to larger markets [7][8] - The article notes that the increasing recognition of these brands internationally will likely enhance their appeal domestically, signaling a potential end to the era where retail trends predominantly flowed from the West to China [8]

本文自南都·湾财社。 采写 | 南都·湾财社记者 黄驰波 邱康正 张海霞 王静娟 贝贝 当一只LABUBU 3.0玩偶成为全球年轻人疯抢的"社交货币"，背后正是情绪经济的强势崛起。从潮玩盲盒到电子宠物，从疗愈经济到户外运动，为情绪买 单已成为年青一代的核心消费逻辑——而这股浪潮正打开消费新空间。 社会大众如何认识情绪消费？哪些赛道、产品，被认为是典型的情绪经济？80后、90后、00后群体又有哪些不一样的情绪消费观？6月27日，在广州举行 的2025价值消费新势力盛典上，南都·湾财社发布《情绪经济社会认知度调研报告》，试图为这些问题寻找答案。 64%中国消费者将精神满足列为首需 今年政府工作报告将"提振消费"列为核心任务，情绪经济正在成为经济新引擎。淘宝天猫618战报显示潮玩、宠物、运动三大情绪赛道爆发，453个品牌成 交破亿，2400家潮玩店增速超100%。全球视野下，2025年日本治愈产业规模剑指7.5万亿日元，欧美疗愈体验消费年增17.5%，印证情绪消费的跨文化势 能。 超8成受访者过去一年有过情绪消费 当前，消费者关注哪种情绪消费？愿意为情绪消费支出多少？不同年龄段的消费者，在情绪消费中更关注哪些话题？ ...

Group 1 - The rise of emotional economy is reshaping consumer behavior, with 64% of Chinese consumers prioritizing emotional satisfaction as their primary need [3][5][11] - The emotional economy is becoming a new economic engine, with significant growth in sectors like trendy toys, pets, and sports, as evidenced by the explosive sales during events like the Tmall 618 shopping festival [3][30] - Over 80% of surveyed consumers reported engaging in emotional consumption in the past year, with preferences varying by age group [6][8][10] Group 2 - Emotional consumption is defined as purchasing behavior aimed at achieving psychological compensation, indicating a shift from functional to emotional-driven consumption [5][10] - The "谷子经济" (Goods economy) market is projected to reach 168.9 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a 40.63% increase from 2023, driven by the popularity of trendy toys and related products [30][34] - The pet industry is evolving into an emotional compensation system, with Gen Z spending an average of over 1,200 yuan per month on pet-related products and services [34][35] Group 3 - The silver economy is expected to reach a market size of 50 trillion yuan by 2050, driven by the new retired demographic who are financially stable and seeking quality experiences [35][36] - The healing economy is gaining traction, with a projected market value exceeding 240 billion yuan this year, fueled by rising demand for emotional wellness and immersive experiences [37][40] - Emotional marketing is widely accepted, with over 80% of respondents recognizing its influence on purchasing decisions, particularly among younger consumers [22][23]