Flash | 15 Oct 2025 02:07:14 ET │ 13 pages Ginlong Technologies (300763.SZ) 3Q25 Profit Cut Miss; Prefer Sungrow and Deye for Higher Sales Mix from ESS CITI'S TAKE Ginlong reported net profit of +29.4% yoy to Rmb865m in 9M25, including -16.8% yoy and -35.4% qoq to Rmb263m in 3Q25. Its quarterly profit cut was a miss vs. consensus (Bloomberg) forecasting its profit of up 68% yoy to Rmb1,158m in 2025E. We attribute Ginlong's earning miss likely to (i) low revenue growth of +3.4% yoy to Rmb1,869m in 3Q25 with ...

Summary of Ningbo Orient Wires & Cables Conference Call Company Overview - **Company Name**: Ningbo Orient Wires & Cables Co Ltd (NBO) - **Stock Code**: 603606.SS - **Industry**: Alternative Energy, specifically focusing on offshore wind and power cables - **Headquarters**: Ningbo City, Zhejiang Province, China - **Market Cap**: Approximately USD 6.72 billion [6][10] Key Points and Arguments Offshore Wind Market Dynamics - NBO is positioned to benefit from the resumption of offshore wind installations in China, expected to accelerate in 2025 after a two-year halt [1][2] - The cumulative offshore wind installation from 2021-2024 was 32.4GW, achieving only 60% of the targeted 54GW under the 14th Five-Year Plan [2][16] - Forecasts indicate new offshore wind installations of 12.2GW in 2025 and 16.8GW in 2026, representing year-on-year growth of 117% and 38% respectively [2][17] Financial Projections - Revenue and earnings are projected to grow at CAGRs of 22% and 40% respectively from 2024 to 2027 [1][75] - Target price set at CNY 83, implying a 19% upside from the current trading price [1][6] - By August 2025, NBO had an order backlog of approximately CNY 20 billion, indicating strong future revenue potential [1][24] Product and Market Position - NBO holds a leading market share of 44% in public cable tenders for offshore wind projects in 2024-2025 [22] - The company specializes in high-end products, including 500V high-voltage and direct current cables, which are expected to see increased demand due to deep-sea projects [3][22] - The content value of submarine cables is anticipated to rise due to the exploration of deeper offshore projects and higher voltage requirements [3][29] Risks and Challenges - Potential risks include longer-than-expected backlog delivery periods due to policy changes, fluctuations in metal prices, and intensified competition in the power cable sector [4][14][52] - The company faces challenges from the fragmented nature of the power cable market, particularly in the land cable segment [52] Financial Performance - NBO's revenue is projected to grow from CNY 9.1 billion in 2024 to CNY 16.5 billion by 2027, driven by strong order backlog deliveries [75] - The gross margin is expected to improve from 18.8% in 2024 to 25.7% by 2027, supported by a better sales mix and higher-margin products [75] - The company recorded a significant increase in contract liabilities, indicating strong future revenue growth potential [69] Strategic Developments - NBO is expanding its production capabilities with plans for a new base in Yantai, Shandong, to meet demand in coastal provinces [23] - The company has secured multiple contracts in Europe, indicating a growing international presence [43] Conclusion - NBO is well-positioned to capitalize on the anticipated growth in the offshore wind sector, supported by a robust order backlog and strategic market positioning. The financial outlook remains positive, with significant growth expected in both revenue and earnings over the next few years [1][75]

Summary of Yankershop Food Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Yankershop Food - **Industry**: Snacks Industry in China - **Coverage Initiation**: Buy rating with a price target of Rmb90.00, implying 27x/22x 2026E/2027E PE [2][5][10] Key Points Growth Projections - **Revenue Growth**: Forecasted revenue CAGR of 15% from 2024 to 2027, with specific YoY growth rates of 18% in 2025, 15% in 2026, and 13% in 2027 [3][10] - **Konjac Products**: Expected to be a major growth driver, with revenue projected to increase from over Rmb800 million in 2024 to more than Rmb3,000 million in 2027, representing a 54% CAGR [3][10][14] Product and Channel Strategy - **Product Focus**: Strategic transition towards core products, particularly konjac, spicy & braised snacks, and bakery products [3][26] - **Omnichannel Strategy**: Expansion into multiple channels, including snack discounters and distributors, to capture growth potential [2][16][50] - **Channel Growth**: Snack discounter channel sales are expected to grow at a CAGR of 14% from 2024 to 2027, increasing its contribution to total sales from 9.0% in 2024 to 12.5% in 2027 [10][50] Margin Improvement - **Net Profit Margin (NPM)**: Projected improvement from 10.7% in 2024 to 13.7% in 2027, driven by limited margin dilution from channel shifts and a more focused product strategy [4][18][69] - **Gross Profit Margin (GPM)**: Expected stabilization at 29-30% in 2025-27, with improvements due to favorable raw material prices and economies of scale [18][69] Financial Metrics - **Valuation**: Stock trading at 21x 12-month forward PE, below historical average of 25x since 2022, and slightly below peers [5][19] - **Revenue Forecast**: Projected revenues to grow from Rmb5,304 million in 2024 to Rmb8,085 million in 2027 [6][26] Market Position - **Competitive Landscape**: Yankershop is positioned as a leader in the Chinese snacks industry, with a diversified product portfolio and strong brand recognition [2][10][25] - **Consumer Trends**: Increasing popularity of modern snacks, including konjac, among consumers, with Yankershop gaining market share [39][49] Risks and Considerations - **Online Channel Performance**: Anticipated slowdown in online sales due to strategic cuts in offerings, leading to a projected decline of 40-50% YoY in online sales for 2025 [55][64] - **Debt Levels**: Net debt projected to increase, with a forecast of Rmb649 million in 2025 [6] Conclusion Yankershop Food is positioned for significant growth in the Chinese snacks market, driven by a clear product strategy focused on konjac products and an effective omnichannel approach. The company is expected to improve its margins and deliver strong revenue growth, making it an attractive investment opportunity.

Summary of China Telecom Sector Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: China Telecom Sector - **Recent Performance**: China telco operators' H shares have underperformed the Hang Seng Index (HSI) over the last three months, with declines of 1-5% compared to HSI's increase of 5% [1][5][6]. Core Insights - **Investment Recommendation**: Investors are encouraged to accumulate shares of China telco operators, viewed as quality laggards with attractive dividend yields [1][5]. - **Dividend Yields**: Projected 2025 dividend yields for major telcos are 6.3% for China Mobile-H (CM-H), 5.4% for China Telecom-H (CT-H), and 5.6% for China Unicom-H (CU-H), which are favorable compared to HSI's 3.0% yield and the China 10Y bond yield of 1.8% [1][6]. - **Revenue Growth Trends**: Traditional telecom revenue growth has slowed, with MIIT data indicating a deceleration in year-over-year growth from 1.3% in Q2 2025 to 0.2% in Q3 2025 [5][6]. This slowdown is attributed to a decline in average revenue per user (ARPU) and stable mobile subscriber numbers [5]. Key Arguments - **Market Dynamics**: The underperformance of telco operators is linked to a market preference for growth stocks over value stocks, as evidenced by HSTECH's 12% rise compared to HSI's 5% [5]. - **Cloud Revenue Concerns**: Cloud revenue growth for telco operators has slowed to 5-10% in the first half of 2025, compared to 22% for internet companies like Alibaba, raising concerns about market share loss [5][6]. - **AI Investment Commitment**: The big three telcos are committed to increasing AI investments, with China Mobile planning to double its AI investment by 2028 and China Unicom focusing on domestic suppliers for its server tenders [6]. Additional Insights - **Shareholder Returns**: All three major telcos are expected to enhance shareholder returns by increasing cash dividend payout ratios over the next 2-3 years, projecting a 9% average dividend per share (DPS) compound annual growth rate (CAGR) from 2025 to 2027 [6]. - **Long-term Growth Outlook**: The long-term growth outlook for AI and cloud services is positive, with expectations that increased state-owned enterprise (SOE) investment in AI/cloud will benefit the telcos' cloud and data center businesses in the coming years [6]. Conclusion - **Top Pick**: China Telecom-H (CT-H) is highlighted as the top pick due to its significant exposure to cloud services and resilient traditional mobile/broadband offerings [1].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the **AI and robotics sectors** in China, highlighting the robust demand for AI infrastructure and its impact on various industries, including automotive, consumer, technology, and industrial sectors [3][5][33]. Core Insights and Arguments - **AI Infrastructure Demand**: There is a significant growth driver from AI infrastructure, particularly in electricity generation engines, power management chips, PCB equipment, and inverters [3][5]. - **Sector Performance**: In September, capital goods, semiconductors, and technology hardware were the top sectors gaining investor interest, while materials saw the most significant decline in wallet share [5][10][15]. - **Investor Meetings**: The tech, auto, and consumer sectors led in investor meetings in Q3, with notable companies like BYD, Sinotruk, and Meituan attracting attention [3][5]. - **Company Visits**: A series of company visits revealed insights into operational efficiencies and market strategies, particularly in automation and AI integration [25][26][27][28][35]. Notable Company Insights - **Midea Group**: The company is leveraging advanced automation and AI inspection robots, which could lead to operational profit margin (OPM) expansion of 0.5-0.8 percentage points year-over-year in 2025 [25]. - **Anta Sports Products**: Sales showed volatility, with management indicating that the ANTA brand requires more effort to achieve growth targets due to tough year-over-year comparisons [26]. - **JD Health**: The company reaffirmed a full-year revenue growth guidance of 20%, driven by strong performance in drug e-commerce [28]. - **Inovance**: The company noted a recovery in traditional demand and launched new automation products, expecting to stabilize net profit margins in the EV sector [35]. - **Ubtech**: Anticipates stronger order inflow for humanoid robots in 2025, with a significant increase in production capacity planned [39]. Additional Important Insights - **Market Dynamics**: The competition in the supermarket sector remains intense, with a focus on high-quality differentiated products to attract consumer loyalty [27]. - **Healthcare Sector**: Companies like Yifeng Pharmacy Chain are experiencing challenges due to weak same-store sales growth but expect recovery in revenue growth in the second half of the year [30]. - **Risks**: The industrial sector faces risks from macroeconomic conditions, including potential demand shrinkage for industrial goods and the impact of competitive pressures [43]. Conclusion - The conference call provided a comprehensive overview of the current state and future outlook of the AI and robotics sectors in China, emphasizing the importance of technological advancements and market adaptability for sustained growth. The insights gathered from company visits and sector analyses highlight both opportunities and challenges within the market landscape.

Summary of Qingdao TGOOD Electric Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the electric vehicle (EV) charging industry in China, particularly focusing on the government's initiatives to enhance charging infrastructure. - The "Three-Year Action Plan to Doubling Electric Vehicle Charging Facility Service Capacity (2025-2027)" aims to increase the number of EV charging facilities from 12.82 million units by the end of 2024 to 28 million by the end of 2027, with a total power charging capacity of 30GW to support 80 million vehicles [1][2][6]. Key Points and Arguments - **Government Support**: The plan is backed by six PRC government departments, indicating strong governmental support for the expansion of EV charging infrastructure [1][2]. - **Market Growth**: In the first eight months of 2025, China added 4.53 million new charging facilities, representing an 88.5% year-over-year increase. The total public EV charging volume also grew by 51.7% year-over-year to 52,490 GWh [1][7]. - **TGOOD's Position**: Qingdao TGOOD Electric is positioned to benefit from this growth, being the top EV charging operator in China with a 47.0% year-over-year increase in charging volume to 12,065 GWh in the same period [1][7]. - **Expansion Opportunities**: TGOOD plans to expand its business into residential districts by providing centralized installation and operation services for residential charging facilities, as well as increasing vehicle-grid integration projects to generate additional income from power markets [1][2]. Financial Performance - **Earnings Summary**: - 2023A: Net Profit of RMB 491 million, Diluted EPS of RMB 0.469, EPS growth of 79.1% - 2024A: Net Profit of RMB 917 million, Diluted EPS of RMB 0.868, EPS growth of 85.3% - 2025E: Net Profit of RMB 1,234 million, Diluted EPS of RMB 1.169, EPS growth of 34.7% - 2026E: Net Profit of RMB 1,529 million, Diluted EPS of RMB 1.448, EPS growth of 23.8% - 2027E: Net Profit of RMB 1,778 million, Diluted EPS of RMB 1.684, EPS growth of 16.3% [2]. Valuation and Target Price - The target price for TGOOD is set at RMB 29.8, with an expected share price return of 5.3% and a total expected return of 6.0% [4][10]. Risks - Key risks that could affect TGOOD's share price include: - Slower-than-expected additions of EV charging capacity - Lower-than-expected utilization of EV charging due to competition - Less-than-expected demand for renewable electrical equipment [11]. Conclusion - The conference call highlights the significant growth potential in the EV charging sector in China, driven by government initiatives and increasing demand. TGOOD is well-positioned to capitalize on these trends, although it faces certain risks that could impact its performance.

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the **China Chemicals** industry, focusing on the implications of new U.S. port fees on ethane carriers for Chinese companies, particularly **Wanhua Chemical** [2][7]. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **New U.S. Port Fees**: Effective October 14, 2025, the U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) will impose a port service fee of **$50 per ton** on ethane carriers owned or operated by Chinese entities, escalating to **$80, $110, and $140** per ton in subsequent years [2][7]. 2. **Impact on Wanhua Chemical**: Wanhua, which imports U.S. ethane for its ethylene crackers, may face increased costs estimated at **Rmb1 billion** in 2026, rising to **Rmb2 billion** by 2028. This represents **6% to 7.6%** of the current consensus net profit for FY26/27 [2][7]. 3. **Mitigation Strategies**: Wanhua is reportedly working on strategies to mitigate these costs; however, failure to do so may lead to downward revisions in consensus earnings [2][7]. 4. **Geopolitical Tensions**: The combination of geopolitical tensions and China's anti-involution measures could lead to a significant slowdown in China's chemical capacity additions from **2026 to 2030** [2][7]. 5. **Stock Recommendations**: Preferred regional companies in light of these developments include **PetroChina, LG Chem, Hengli, PTTGC, and Reliance** [2][7]. Additional Important Points 1. **Limited Impact on Satellite Chemical**: Satellite Chemical operates a fleet of vessels that are largely unaffected by the new U.S. port fees, as most are owned by non-Chinese companies [11]. 2. **Delays in Satellite's ECC Phase 3**: Construction of Satellite Chemical's third ethylene cracker has been paused due to U.S.-China tensions, which may lead to downward revisions in consensus earnings for **2027-28** [11]. 3. **Wanhua's Ethylene Cracker Updates**: Wanhua's Yantai 2 ethylene cracker is fully operational, while the Yantai 1 cracker is undergoing feedstock conversion and is expected to restart in November 2025 [11]. 4. **Potential Benefits for Non-Chinese Projects**: The slowdown in Chinese ethane demand may benefit ethane cracking projects outside China, with companies like **Reliance** and **ONGC** planning to switch to ethane for better economics [11]. 5. **Market Dynamics**: A significant slowdown in Chinese net chemical capacity additions is anticipated, which may lead to a rebalancing of global supply and demand dynamics, positively impacting regional chemical companies [11]. Conclusion The conference call highlights significant challenges and potential shifts in the China Chemicals industry due to new U.S. port fees and geopolitical tensions. Companies like Wanhua Chemical may face increased costs, while other regional players could benefit from changing market dynamics.

Summary of Shenzhen Envicool Technology (002837.SZ) Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Shenzhen Envicool Technology - **Ticker**: 002837.SZ - **Industry**: Thermal management solutions for datacenters and energy storage systems - **Established**: 2005 in Shenzhen, China - **Market Presence**: Leading provider in China with global operations, primarily in the US and Southeast Asia [19][20] Key Financial Results - **3Q25 Revenue**: Rmb1.45 billion, a 25% year-over-year increase, but a decline of 11% quarter-over-quarter from 2Q25 [1] - **9M25 Revenue**: Rmb4.026 billion, a 40.2% year-over-year increase; attributed net profit rose 13% year-over-year to Rmb399 million [2] - **3Q25 Attributed Net Profit**: Rmb183 million, an 8.4% year-over-year increase, slightly below expectations [1] - **4Q25 Expectations**: Anticipated attributed net profit to double year-over-year to Rmb215 million, primarily due to a low base [1] Operational Insights - **Operating Cash Flow (OCF)**: Negative Rmb319 million in 9M25 compared to positive Rmb156 million the previous year, attributed to rising raw material and labor costs [2] - **Accounts Receivable (AR)**: Increased by 197% year-over-year to Rmb129.7 million, indicating delays in cash conversion [2] - **Inventory Growth**: Increased by 39% year-over-year to Rmb1.232 billion, suggesting a solid backlog but also indicating limited upside potential [3] Valuation and Market Position - **Current Valuation**: PE ratio of 90x for 2026E and >7x for 2027E, with a projected 3-year EPS CAGR of merely 30% until 2027E [3] - **Target Price**: Set at Rmb50, representing a potential downside of 32.7% from the current price of Rmb74.31 [5][9] - **Market Capitalization**: Rmb72.001 billion (approximately US$10.086 billion) [5] Investment Strategy - **Recommendation**: Sell, due to high valuation and soft 9M25 results [1][20] - **Competitors**: Preference for SYTECH over Shennan in the A-share AI-infra theme [1] Growth Drivers - **Nvidia Supply Chain**: Potential growth from partnerships with Nvidia, which has included Envicool among its datacenter infrastructure providers [21] - **Huawei Supply Chain**: Anticipated growth from Huawei's upcoming GPU launch, which may favor domestic players like Envicool [21] - **Gross Margin Outlook**: Expected improvement due to a better mix of overseas sales [21] Risks and Challenges - **Market Sentiment**: High risk rating for the stock, with potential upside risks including stronger-than-expected AI market sentiment and profit contributions from new GPU launches [23] - **Valuation Concerns**: Current valuation is seen as stretched given the company's growth outlook and market conditions [20][22] Conclusion Shenzhen Envicool Technology is positioned as a leader in the thermal management solutions sector, but faces challenges with high valuations and recent performance metrics. The company is expected to leverage growth opportunities from key partnerships while navigating operational cash flow issues and market expectations. The recommendation remains a cautious sell based on current financial performance and valuation concerns.

abc 2025 年 10 月 14 日 Global Research 环旭电子 新增长动能的可预见性提高，上调目标价 上调目标价并重申买入评级 我们将公司的2025-27年的EPS预测上调了2%/5%/6%，并将公司未来12个 月的目标价上调至25.40元并维持买入评级。我们对公司的盈利增长更为乐 观的原因是：1 ）由于近期多个海外云计算以及大模型厂商对于AI资本支出 有积极的反馈，我们对公司的云端和存储业务的收入增长更为乐观；2）公 司作为微小化模组的领先厂商以及Meta眼镜的主要供应商（基于我们预 测），我们认为公司的AI眼镜相关的SiP模组存在进一步的上行空间。中长期 来看，我们对于公司作为全球最大的封测厂商日月光的子公司，在全球AI基 础设施、端侧AI等领域形成的协同性保持积极的看法；且我们估计公司的盈 利增长将自2026年起保持加速增长。因此，我们将目标市盈率上调至24倍 （较起历史平均21倍略高0.3倍标准差，与公司在最近一轮高景气度期间的 平均估值[即2020年，受到公司进入Airpods SiP的带动]接近），并保持买入 评级不变。 云端计算业务存在进一步上行空间 我们估计环旭是北美某大型 ...

Accessible version We expect Ninebot's E2W sales to rise from 4.1mn units in 2025E to 6.3mn units in 2027E, indicating its market share in China high-end E2W to rise to 23% in 2027E. We anticipate China E2W industry to further consolidate following the implementation of New National Standards in Dec 2025, while China high-end E2W penetration could expand to 45% in 2026-27E. Compared to E2W peers Yadea & Aima, Ninebot (1) focuses on RMB4-6k price segment and features 30-50% higher prices; (2) stands out with ...