2月3日，国内商品期货早盘开盘，沪银跌超18%，沪锡跌超8%，原油跌逾4%，短纤、PTA等跌超1%，豆油、菜籽油等小幅下跌；氧化铝涨超1%，玻璃、 焦炭等小幅上涨。 | 名称 | 现价 | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | | 沪银2604 | 21073.00 | -18.16% | | AG2604.SHF | | | | 沪锡2603 | 375710.00 | -8.56% | | SN2603.SHF | | | | 原油2603 | 452.00 | -4.38% | | SC2603.INE | | | | 燃油2603 | 2705.00 | -3.67% | | FU2603.SHF | | | | 低硫燃料油2604 | 3177.00 | -2.00% | | LU2604.INE | | | | 纯苯2603 | 6002.00 | -1.88% | | BZ2603.DCE | | | | 沪镍2603 | 134050.00 | -1.82% | | NI2603.SHF | | | | 沥青2603 | 3307.00 | -1.78% | | BU2603.S ...

Group 1 - The A-share market opened higher with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.7%, Shenzhen Component Index up 1.18%, and ChiNext Index up 1.65% [2][3] - The hardware industry chain related to computing power rebounded, with memory and CPO sectors leading the gains [1][3] - The semiconductor sector showed strength at the market open, with companies like Langke Technology and Purun Shares both rising over 7% [1][3] Group 2 - The Hong Kong stock market opened with the Hang Seng Index up 0.82% and the Hang Seng Tech Index up 0.68% [4][5] - Precious metals saw a significant increase, with spot silver rising 7% to $84.83 per ounce and gold increasing by 4% to $4844.07 per ounce [1][5]

SpaceX表示，收购xAI的目的是"打造最具雄心的垂直整合创新引擎，涵盖人工智能、火箭、太空互联 网、直连移动设备的通信以及世界领先的实时信息的平台"。 通过这起规模创纪录的交易，马斯克能将人工智能和太空雄心结合起来，缔造一个规模空前庞大的"太 空AI帝国"。 "这不仅标志着SpaceX和xAI使命的新篇章，更是新的一本书：我们将扩大规模，创造一个有感知能力 的'太阳'，以理解宇宙，并将意识之光延伸到星辰！"马斯克说道。 在人工智能领域，马斯克正在与谷歌、Meta、亚马逊以及OpenAI、Anthropic等公司竞争。这将是一场 持久的"烧钱大战"。xAI的成本主要由芯片、数据中心和能源构成。 马斯克表示，在未来两到三年内，在太空中进行人工智能计算将是最经济的方式。 当地时间2月2日，科技富豪马斯克宣布，SpaceX已收购人工智能初创公司xAI。两家公司合并后的估值 预计超过1万亿美元，其中SpaceX估值1万亿美元，xAI估值2500亿美元。 不过SpaceX没有正式披露此次交易的条款。马斯克在声明中解释了这笔交易的理由，他表示，在未来 两到三年内，在太空中进行人工智能计算将是最经济的方式。 他写道："仅 ...

Core Viewpoint - The release of Google's Project Genie has sparked discussions in the US stock market regarding the risks of AI disrupting game content creation, but the technology is still in its early stages and unlikely to have a substantial impact on game engines, developers' business models, or competitive landscape [1] Group 1: Project Genie and Market Impact - Project Genie is currently limited in aspects such as content generation time, internal consistency, adherence to physical laws, and repeatability of experience [1] - The fluctuations in stock prices of related companies are primarily driven by concerns over AI narrative capabilities, alongside the extreme trading style observed in the US stock market since the beginning of the year [1] Group 2: Company Performance and Investment Opportunities - The fundamentals of key related companies are still on an improving trajectory, suggesting a continued focus on their performance and progress [1] - Short-term stock price corrections present significant opportunities for accumulation [1]

博斯蒂克认为，美联储主席提名人想要说服FOMC短期内降息难度不小。 博斯蒂克称，当前美国经济表现强劲，劳动力市场也已趋于稳定，在此背景下降息，极有可能导致无法 将通胀率拉回目标水平，甚至无法让通胀走上向目标回落的轨道。"因此，我认为现在最该做的是保持 耐心。" 联邦基金利率期货定价显示，市场预期美联储年内降息窗口在6月和7月摇摆，并未因沃什获得提名大幅 提前，投资者普遍态度谨慎。富国银行投资研究所全球固定收益策略主管雷林（Brian Rehling）表示， 若想将利率降至中性水平以下，新任主席必须争取到足够的共识支持。"降息并非主席一人就能决定的 事，他需要获得更多美联储理事的投票支持。这将会是一种前所未有的特殊局面。" 推进缩表难度重重 在华尔街看来，沃什的另一潜在主张——缩表，即使最终能够实现，现实的金融环境也意味着其落地过 程将充满阻碍、推进缓慢。 当地时间周一，亚特兰大联储主席拉斐尔・博斯蒂克在出席活动时表示，沃什若执掌美联储将面临一项 "艰巨任务"，尤其是如果他想要说服政策制定委员会的成员在货币政策决策上与自己保持一致，这项挑 战会更为突出。 如何化解分歧 美联储上周以10票赞成、2票反对的结果，决 ...

Group 1 - The market is expected to enter a medium to long-term consolidation phase after a short-term momentum decline [10] - The Shanghai government has initiated a program to purchase second-hand housing for affordable rental housing projects, targeting new citizens, young people, and graduates [5] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has approved a new national standard for automotive door handles, set to be implemented in 2027, addressing safety and usability issues [5] Group 2 - The National Development and Reform Commission and other departments have released guidelines for the construction of a low-altitude economy standard system, aiming for over 300 standards by 2030 [3] - The Ministry of Finance has introduced a temporary method for long-term asset input tax deduction, allowing full deduction for mixed-use assets upon purchase [4] - The stock of Guokai Military Industry has experienced significant price fluctuations, with a recent announcement clarifying that its commercial aerospace projects are still in the R&D phase and have minimal impact on revenue [7]

近日，联合国秘书长古特雷斯在给成员国的致信中写道，若会员国未能及时足额缴纳会费，联合国可能 在7月面临现金流中断的风险。 据报道，联合国官员透露，美国目前拖欠的经常预算会费累计为21.9亿美元，拖欠维和行动经费约24.08 亿美元，拖欠国际法院和国际刑事法院等法庭费用0.44亿美元，共计约46.4亿美元。 当地时间2月2日，世卫组织（WHO）总干事谭德塞表示，由于美国和阿根廷相继宣布停止"缴费"， WHO正被迫大幅裁员。 在难以强制美国缴费的情况下，联合国在7月后是否确实可能无法正常运转？ 1月，美国正式完成退出WHO程序。WHO近期报告透露该机构将在2026年年中前裁减约25%员工。截 至2024年底，世卫共有9457名员工。 欠债本应还钱。 据新华社，美国总统特朗普2月1日接受美国媒体电话采访时称，他能"轻松"解决联合国财政危机，但他 绝口不提美国是否会支付拖欠的联合国会费。 朱杰进：联合国的财政与行政规则体系，包括会费分摊方式，需通过联合国大会第五委员会（联大五 委）进行修订。古特雷斯提及了一项现行规则，该规则要求联合国在未能执行预算时，须将特定项目的 未使用资金退还给成员国，类似于预算执行中"钱未花完 ...

Core Viewpoint - The "luwei" industry is undergoing significant differentiation and deep adjustment, with major players showing contrasting performance signals amid a backdrop of slowing growth, store reductions, and intensified competition [1] Performance Divergence - ST Juewei (603517.SH) has announced a projected revenue of 5.3 billion to 5.5 billion yuan for 2025, representing a year-on-year decline of 12.09% to 15.29%, and expects its first annual loss of 160 million to 220 million yuan [2] - In contrast, Huangshanghuang (002695.SZ) anticipates a net profit of 70 million to 90 million yuan for 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 73.57% to 123.16% [2][3] Store Count Reduction - Despite the increase in net profit for Huangshanghuang and Zhou Hei Ya (1458.HK), both companies are reducing their store counts. Zhou Hei Ya reported a decrease of 167 stores, bringing the total to 2,864 [4] - Huangshanghuang had 2,898 stores as of June 2025, down from 3,660 at the end of 2024 [5] - ST Juewei has seen a net reduction of over 4,000 stores in a year and a half, with approximately 10,713 stores remaining as of February 2026 [5] Industry Challenges - The "luwei" industry is facing severe operational pressures, with a significant slowdown in growth. The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) from 2018 to 2023 was 6.42%, with a market size of approximately 318 billion yuan in 2023 [6] - Key challenges include high prices, reduced consumer willingness, and competition from snacks and ready-to-eat meals, which are impacting the industry's growth [6] - The industry is also experiencing product homogeneity, with 80% of products from the top 10 brands overlapping, leading to concerns about value perception among consumers [6]

继日盘跌停后，2月2日夜盘沪银期货主力合约开盘后不久便下跌20%，触及跌停。日盘跌停的沪锡、原 油、燃油、沪镍等期货主力合约也大幅下跌。 上期所当日发布通知称："近期国际形势复杂多变，市场波动较大。请各有关单位关注市场动态，加强 风险管理，提示投资者进一步提高风险防范意识，理性参与，合规交易，共同维护市场平稳运行。" 国信期货首席分析师顾冯达对第一财经记者称，当前市场正经历一场由美国金融市场崩盘引发的"连锁 反应"冲击。在美联储下任主席提名"鹰派"人物凯文·沃什的消息刺激下，此前创出新高的贵金属金银出 现历史级暴跌，因美联储主席人选意外变化和"鹰派"表态，动摇了市场对"无约束宽松"的预期，导致海 外科技股及金银等高杠杆投机盘集中踩踏。 金瑞期货研究员吴梓杰也称，贵金属高位下市场风险逐步上升。在此背景下，上海期货交易所持续强化 市场监测与风险防范，多次发布公告提示市场风险，并推出一系列有针对性的风控措施，此举有助于引 导市场参与者以理性态度进行投资，进而保障市场的平稳有序运行。建议市场参与者保持理性，谨慎操 作，严格控制持仓比例，切实做好风险防控工作。 "交易所提高保证金水平还是有效果，白银期货以前的杠杆水平是 ...

国信期货首席分析师顾冯达对第一财经记者称，当前市场正经历一场由美国金融市场崩盘引发的"连锁 反应"冲击。在美联储下任主席提名"鹰派"人物凯文·沃什的消息刺激下，此前创出新高的贵金属金银出 现历史级暴跌，因美联储主席人选意外变化和"鹰派"表态，动摇了市场对"无约束宽松"的预期，导致海 外科技股及金银等高杠杆投机盘集中踩踏。 除了提示风险外，2月2日上期所还对部分客户采取限制开仓监管措施。 "此次下跌主因源自境外宏观情绪恶化与流动性扰动，并非国内基本面主导。"中信建投期货贵金属首席 分析师王彦青也认为，有色及贵金属市场出现极端波动，主要在于前期市场对"去美元"等长期逻辑进行 了短期的集中交易，市场积累的风险快速释放所致，从市场运行情况也可以看到，外盘白银出现了单日 30%以上的波动，从而导致国内白银期货价格跌停，并对部分有色金属及贵金属品种形成显著冲击。 这轮金银价格在1月29日见顶后大跌。其中，伦敦现货黄金价格在1月29日创出历史新高5598.75美元/盎 司后，大幅下跌，截至2月2日发稿时，每盎司跌到4600美元左右；伦敦现货白银价格也暴跌，从1月29 日的历史新高121.647美元/盎司，到2月2日发稿时每 ...