投资人此刻最想问的是，人工智能（AI）究竟是不是泡沫，会不会爆？财经评论员认为，这根本问错 问题，事实上，AI泡沫早已开始泄气了，只是不像当年达康泡沫那样猛烈爆开。 财经评论员杜莫维奇表示，此刻AI泡沫确实存在，但独立研究机构MacroStrategy Partnership估计，AI泡 沫比2000年爆掉的达康泡沫大17倍，绝对是误导人，那项分析衡量的是所有资产类别的总资本配置，并 不是针对AI而已。 更重要的是，众人都问错问题。这场辩论不应是"AI泡沫会不会爆"--事实上早已发生，只是泡沫慢慢泄 气，不像轰然大爆炸那般引人瞩目。然而，一连串慢动作泄气，正悄悄重塑整个AI市场生态。 杜莫维奇指出，伤亡数字正日积月累。2024年，新创公司关门家数暴增；2025年，有95%的企业AI试验 计划未能在推出六个月内，达成可评量的损益（P&L）目标；而且，今年来，募资失败率占所有创业投 资交易比率达到15.9%，是十年来最高。 但相较于2000年达康泡沫爆破，AI泡沫的威胁不是被夸大，就是被误解。AI泡沫并非达康泡沫翻版， 反倒更有趣且获利前景更可观，但必须押对宝。 超大规模云端服务业者（hyperscalers）指 ...

苟嘉章预估，DRAM在2026年将全年缺货，不过，随着三星、SK海力士及美光新厂逐步开出，预期 2027年缺货情况可望获缓解。至于NAND Flash方面，预估2026年NANDFlash市场也将缺货，预期三年 后市场版图将出现变化；除三星、SK海力士及铠侠外，长江存储在中国内需带动下，可望跻身全球前 四大厂之列。 人工智能（AI）应用带动存储器需求，外界关注缺货潮将持续多久。这股热潮不仅让研究机构预期 DDR5合约价看涨，获利有望于2026年超越新一代高频宽存储器HBM3e，存储器控制芯片厂商慧荣科技 总经理苟嘉章昨（1）日更预期，AI带动下，可能缺货一整年。 苟嘉章指出，此次存储器缺货潮并不是供应商减产带动，是结构性缺货。市场绝对会有重复下单情况， 实际情况难以掌握，只希望产业能够平衡发展。 TrendForce最新调查指出，由于伺服器需求维持强劲，预期DDR5合约价于2026全年均将呈上涨态势， 尤以上半年较显著。反观当前2026年HBM议价情况，随着三大原厂在HBM3e竞争激励，且买方有一定 库存水位，预计合约价转为年减。 TrendForce分析，今年第2季HBM3e和DDR5仍有四倍以上价差，前者 ...

Core Insights - TSMC has confirmed a price increase for advanced process foundry services starting from September, marking a continuous increase for four years, driven by global changes and the booming AI sector [1][2] - The price hike is expected to trigger a wave of chip price increases across the industry, as evidenced by MediaTek's announcement of raising chip prices due to rising costs [1] - TSMC's strategy includes focusing resources on advanced processes (5nm and below) while potentially reducing capacity for mature processes (7nm and above) to reallocate manufacturing resources [1][2] Group 1: Price Increase and Market Position - TSMC's price increase reflects its strong commitment to AI, servers, and high-performance computing applications, prioritizing the supply of the most advanced nodes [2] - TSMC's recent financial results show record high revenue and profit, with a global foundry market share of 70.2% in Q2, significantly surpassing Samsung, enhancing its pricing power [2] Group 2: Impact on Supply Chain and Customers - The price and capacity strategy changes present challenges for downstream customers, particularly those relying heavily on advanced process chips, who may need to adjust supply chain strategies or increase prices [2] - Companies dependent on mature nodes may face pressure to secure orders due to reduced capacity, while the price increase strategy could have long-term effects on consumer electronics, market competition, and technology update cycles [2]

业界说，尽管在新冠疫情期间，台积电也未任意涨价，多考量和客户群的长期合作关系。台积电曾在 2020、2021年两度取消年初的销货折让，2023年起恢复例行作业迄今。以台积电2023年报价涨幅来看， 相较同业、公司自身，涨幅亦属温和，当时主要是综合考量产能供不应求、通膨与生产成本提升，与客 户沟通调高报价，但也仅个位数百分比，预期2026年先进制程仍将持续反应生产成本。 台积电主要成长驱动力是先进制程，5纳米与3纳米家族占今年第2季营收达六成，第3季续占六成（3纳 米占23%，5纳米37%）。台积电先前曾多次强调，与客户密切合作规划产能，并投资先进和特殊制程 技术以支持客户需求，同时在客户信任之下，获取适当的报酬。 台积电在先进制程领域持续享有领先者红利，且无替代方案方案。法人看好，随着相关需求成长，有望 带动台积电营收获利成长，外资先前已上修台积电AI应用营收的中长期预测，原先2028年AI应用甚至 将达到台积电总收入的35%，目前可望提早在今年或明年达到。 先进制程因AI应用持续供不应求。TrendForce先前预测，晶圆厂受惠AI带动电源管理芯片需求，已规划 2026年全面上调代工价格，尽管涨价幅度尚待协 ...

我国高度重视农村人居环境改善，以农村生活垃圾治理推动宜居宜业和美乡村建设。而长期以来，农村 垃圾治理仍存在反复反弹、效果难持续的问题，根源在于某些地区缺乏稳定可行的长效支撑体系。 建立农村生活垃圾长效治理机制，"长效"二字是贯穿始终的关键主线，更是破解农村垃圾治理顽疾的核 心密码。此次山西出台的实施意见，从多个关键维度发力，为长效落地提供全方位保障。 体系适配是长效治理的基础前提。长效治理要与农村实际深度契合，才能实现持续运转。城市垃圾分类 模式虽成熟，但直接套用农村，往往会因生产生活习惯、基础设施条件的差异而出现"水土不服"。山西 明确提出健全符合农村特点的分类、收集、转运、处理体系，让治理措施更贴合乡村实际场景。这种本 土化的体系构建，避免了"一刀切"带来的执行困境，确保治理流程能顺畅推进，为长效治理从"治 标"到"治本"的跃升奠定坚实基础。 资金保障是长效治理的关键支撑。农村生活垃圾治理是一项长期投入的系统性工程，保洁员工资发放、 设施日常运维、垃圾终端处置等都需要稳定的资金支持。山西着力构建多元化资金保障机制，清晰划分 政府、企业、村集体、村民等各方的责任，形成多方协同投入的格局，确保常态化费用有着落 ...

晨曦初露，江西省抚州市资溪县石峡乡双斜村的竹林深处，伐竹声此起彼伏，十余位工人正有条不紊地 砍伐杂木，喷灌系统喷出的水雾弥漫四周，让这片笋竹两用林更显生机。"改造后亩产值达4000元，利 润是普通毛竹林的8倍。"经营者卢伙桂的话语里满是喜悦。这片曾效益低下的竹林，凭借"以林入股"模 式重焕活力，成为抚州林业改革的生动缩影。 自2021年5月被列为全国林业改革发展综合试点市以来，抚州市紧紧围绕六大方向、24项具体改革发展 任务，深入挖掘、高效利用林地林木资源，在全国首创10多项林业改革措施，在制度创新、资源盘活、 产业升级等方面取得突破性成果，让"千万林业资源"加速向"千亿产值"跨越，实现生态保护与经济发展 双赢。 在改革攻坚中，抚州率先破解林地经营周期难题。针对林地承包经营权不足一个林业生产周期的现状， 该市在全国率先开展林地承包经营权延期试点，让林农和经营者吃下"定心丸"。截至今年8月，全市已 完成林权延包合同3.12万余份，涉及面积41.23万亩。同时，创新权籍调查方法，协同自然资源部门完善 林权数据库，打通不动产登记管理系统与林权管理服务系统接口，实现林权审批、交易、登记信息实时 互通共享。2021年以 ...

Core Viewpoint - The 20th Central Committee's Fourth Plenary Session emphasizes the importance of "promoting innovative trade development," particularly focusing on "expanding intermediate goods trade and green trade," which is seen as a new driving force for China's foreign trade and a significant contribution to climate change response and green low-carbon transition [1][2]. Group 1: Definition and Importance of Green Trade - Green trade integrates environmental protection and sustainable development into the entire process of international trade, covering green products, technologies, services, and rules [2][3]. - The significance of developing green trade includes responding to international economic and trade rule adjustments, achieving carbon peak and carbon neutrality goals, and addressing traditional trade bottlenecks [4][5]. Group 2: Aspects of Green Trade - Green trade encompasses three main aspects: 1. The greening of trade objects, including environmentally friendly products like photovoltaic cells and electric vehicles [3]. 2. The greening of trade processes, focusing on minimizing environmental impacts throughout the supply chain [3]. 3. The inclusion of external environmental and social costs in trade accounting, such as carbon emissions and resource consumption [3]. Group 3: Current Trends and Achievements in Green Trade - China's green trade is experiencing robust growth, with significant increases in exports of green energy products, such as a 71.9% rise in wind turbine exports and over 200 billion yuan in photovoltaic product exports [5][9]. - The "new three items" (new energy vehicles, lithium batteries, and photovoltaic products) have seen a 2.6 times increase in export scale compared to 2020, marking a significant shift towards high-end, low-carbon products [9][10]. Group 4: Challenges and Future Directions - Despite the achievements, challenges remain, including the need for improved carbon management capabilities and the establishment of a unified green low-carbon product standard system [18][19]. - Future efforts should focus on enhancing international dialogue, improving carbon management capabilities, and participating in the development of global foundational carbon rules [18][19].

Core Insights - The ongoing tension between the US and India regarding India's purchase of Russian oil has intensified, with India asserting its need for energy security despite US pressure [1][3] - India is heavily reliant on oil imports, with approximately 85% of its crude oil needs met through imports, making it the world's third-largest oil importer [1][2] - The geopolitical landscape has allowed India to capitalize on discounted Russian oil, increasing its imports from Russia from less than 1% before the Ukraine crisis to 34% currently [3] Group 1: Energy Dependency - India’s energy sector has historically struggled with self-sufficiency, facing challenges such as monopolistic management and price controls that stifle market vitality [2] - The discovery of the Mumbai offshore oil field in 1974 was initially seen as a turning point, but regulatory constraints have limited its potential [2] Group 2: Strategic Purchasing - The Ukraine crisis has created an opportunity for India to purchase Russian oil at discounted rates, allowing it to shift its import focus from the Middle East to Russia [3] - India has also engaged in reselling some of this oil to Europe, profiting from the price difference, which has led to its characterization as a "second-hand dealer" in the oil market [3] Group 3: Currency and Trade Challenges - India's attempt to use the rupee for oil transactions has failed, as global suppliers are reluctant to accept it due to its low liquidity and high exchange rate risk [4] - Despite efforts to diversify its energy sources and invest in renewable energy, India faces significant hurdles in achieving a sustainable energy framework [4][5] Group 4: Future Outlook - The urgency for India to achieve energy independence is increasing, as reliance on imported oil remains high while the avenues for low-cost Russian oil are narrowing [5] - The challenges in transitioning to a diversified energy system highlight the complexities India faces in its pursuit of becoming a major global power [5]

Core Viewpoint - Addressing climate change is a pressing and long-term task, with the international community increasingly focusing on the coordination of trade and environmental development [1] Group 1: Trade and Environmental Initiatives - The WTO has been involved in trade and environment discussions since the Uruguay Round negotiations in 1986, leading to the establishment of the Committee on Trade and Environment [1] - The "Friends of Environmental Goods" group within the WTO initiated negotiations for the Environmental Goods Agreement in 2014, aiming to reduce or eliminate tariffs and non-tariff barriers on environmental products [1] - In 2024, Costa Rica, Iceland, New Zealand, and Switzerland signed a green trade agreement, indicating a shift from soft advocacy to hard constraints in green low-carbon rules within free trade agreements [1] Group 2: Growth of Green Trade - In 2024, global exports of "new green products" reached $617.05 billion, a 3.2-fold increase since 2020, with China, the EU, and Japan being the top three exporters [2] - China emerged as the world's largest green trade economy in 2024, with a green trade import-export scale of $1.17 trillion, a year-on-year growth of 3.2%, accounting for 16.1% of global green trade [2] - The annual growth rate of green trade in China from 2020 to 2024 was 6.7%, highlighting its role in meeting global demand for green low-carbon products and promoting the green transformation of the global consumption market [2] Group 3: Development Strategies for Green Trade - Emphasis on developing strategic emerging industries such as new energy and environmental protection, and supporting enterprises in transitioning to green design, production, and logistics [3] - Establishing a green trade evaluation index system and utilizing various policies to enhance the facilitation of green product trade [3] - Encouraging the establishment of carbon footprint databases for foreign trade products and reducing tariffs on certain green products to enhance the green development capabilities of foreign trade enterprises [3] Group 4: Enhancing Environmental Clauses in Free Trade Agreements - Upgrading bilateral free trade agreements with countries like Costa Rica, Iceland, New Zealand, and Switzerland to include enhanced environmental product chapters [4] - Strengthening technical assistance and cooperation in environmental protection and green development for developing countries [4] - Promoting international cooperation in policy communication, technical projects, and personnel training to contribute to global green development [4] Group 5: Climate Cooperation and Global Leadership - Advocating for multilateral climate governance and enhancing China's role in global climate governance [5] - Promoting high-level dialogues with major economies on climate change and coordinating policies for international cooperation [5] - Participating in the development of international green technology standards and rules to facilitate cooperation and mutual recognition of mechanisms [5]

近日，科技公司1X首款消费级家用人形机器人NEO开启预售，并计划首批产品于2026年交付美国市 场。这是否意味着"机器人保姆"即将从科幻场景走进现实？ NEO有不少创新之处，直击家用人形机器人的核心需求。 亲和力强，这有利于它融入家庭生活。这款身高1.68米、体重30公斤的智能设备，穿着柔软的针织外衣 和鞋子，消解了冷冰冰的"机械感"。运行时噪声低至22分贝，比冰箱还安静。内置大语言模型，支持语 音指令，可以直接对话。有记忆功能，能记住主人的习惯和需求，可以"越用越懂你"。 性能设计务实，满足基础家务需求。NEO采用类似人类肌腱的驱动系统，动作柔和，专为家庭环境设 计，不用太担心安全问题。单手22个自由度的精细操作、4个小时续航、防水手部设计等，让叠衣服、 浇花、扫地、洗碗等基础家务具备落地可能。 商业模式创新，降低使用门槛。NEO有两种获取方式，以2万美元售价买一台，或者每月付499美元订 阅款租用一台。2万美元的售价与我国宇树Unitree G1人形机器人在美国的售价相当，已具备市场竞争 力。499美元订阅制，更是大大降低了高端科技产品的获取门槛。 但NEO的短板同样不容忽视。从冰箱取瓶水要1分钟，往洗碗 ...