华源证券近日发布大能源行业2025年第52周周报：原煤产量回升同比仍降，供给偏紧但暖冬致需求阶段 性走弱。据国家统计局数据，2025年11月，全国原煤产量为42679万吨，同比-0.5%。11月下旬以来，煤 价高位回落，持续走低，核心在于季节性需求远逊同期。 以下为研究报告摘要： 投资要点： 电力设备：光热规模化发展意见出台十五五装机有望迎近10倍增长空间 本周，两部委印发《关于促进光热发电规模化发展的若干意见》（以下简称《意见》）。对于十五五的 光热装机规模提出明确目标：到2030年总装机规模力争达到1500万千瓦左右，这意味着十五五光热发电 装机有望迎来近10倍增长空间。 光热发电兼具可靠、灵活、清洁属性，有望在我国能源转型中发挥重要作用。《意见》中也重点提及了 要发挥光热的优势，包括：（1）在大型能源基地中配置光热；（2）积极探索技术经济可行的光热电站 在大基地中作为支撑调节电源发挥作用；（3）建设以光热发电为主的支撑型调节新能源电站；（4）建 设以光热为基础的源网荷储一体化系统；（5）光热与产业协同发展，包括与矿产资源开发冶炼、算力 中心、动力电池制造、盐湖提锂等。 当前光热发电成本较高，需技术降本和 ...

Market Performance - The steel sector increased by 3.42% this week, outperforming the broader market [1][2] - The special steel segment rose by 4.80%, long products by 1.27%, and flat products by 1.94% [1][2] - Iron ore segment surged by 10.15%, steel consumables by 2.94%, and trade circulation by 4.33% [1][2] Supply Situation - As of December 26, the capacity utilization rate of blast furnaces in sample steel enterprises was 84.9%, up by 0.01 percentage points week-on-week [2] - Electric furnace capacity utilization rate was 53.2%, down by 1.12 percentage points week-on-week [2] - The output of five major steel products was 6.92 million tons, an increase of 0.15 million tons week-on-week [2] - Daily average pig iron output was 2.2658 million tons, up by 0.03 million tons week-on-week, but down by 28,300 tons year-on-year [2][5] Demand Situation - Consumption of five major steel products was 8.336 million tons, down by 16,700 tons week-on-week [2] - Mainstream traders' sales volume of construction steel was 95,000 tons, down by 4.3% week-on-week [2] Inventory Situation - Social inventory of five major steel products was 8.726 million tons, down by 339,100 tons week-on-week [3] - Factory inventory was 3.854 million tons, down by 28,800 tons week-on-week [3] Price and Profit - The comprehensive index for ordinary steel was 3,439.2 yuan/ton, down by 9.57 yuan/ton week-on-week [3] - The comprehensive index for special steel was 6,571.8 yuan/ton, up by 1.81 yuan/ton week-on-week [3] - The profit for rebar from blast furnaces was 50 yuan/ton, up by 8.0 yuan/ton week-on-week [3] - The profit for electric furnace construction steel was -4 yuan/ton, up by 3.0 yuan/ton week-on-week [3] Raw Material Situation - The spot price index for Australian powder ore (62% Fe) was 800 yuan/ton, up by 2.0 yuan/ton week-on-week [4] - The price for main coking coal remained stable at 1,700 yuan/ton [4] - The average available days of iron ore for sample steel enterprises was 25.18 days, down by 0.2 days week-on-week [4] Investment Outlook - The steel industry is expected to maintain a stable supply-demand situation despite current challenges [6][7] - The demand for steel is anticipated to improve marginally due to government "stability growth" policies supporting real estate and infrastructure [6][7] - Companies with high gross margins and strong cost control are expected to see valuation recovery opportunities [7] - Recommended companies include regional leaders with advanced equipment and environmental standards, as well as those benefiting from the new energy cycle [7]

Core Insights - Nvidia has announced a non-exclusive licensing agreement to acquire core assets from Groq for $20 billion, marking its largest investment to date [3] - The acquisition focuses on Groq's LPU architecture, which offers advantages in inference processing, enabling high-speed token generation that surpasses traditional GPUs [3] - Nvidia plans to begin exporting H200 chips to China in mid-February 2024, with an expected initial shipment of 5,000 to 10,000 modules, totaling approximately 40,000 to 80,000 H200 chips [4] Industry Performance - The electronic sector has seen significant recovery, with the Shenwan Electronics Secondary Index showing year-to-date performance: Semiconductors (+46.46%), Other Electronics II (+53.70%), Components (+106.98%), Optical Electronics (+9.42%), Consumer Electronics (+47.50%), and Electronic Chemicals II (+53.90%) [1] - Weekly performance for the electronic sector includes: Semiconductors (+4.84%), Other Electronics II (+7.46%), Components (+7.40%), Optical Electronics (+0.86%), Consumer Electronics (+5.14%), and Electronic Chemicals II (+6.19%) [1] Stock Performance - Notable stock movements in North America include: Apple (-0.10%), Tesla (-1.25%), Broadcom (+3.46%), Qualcomm (-0.25%), TSMC (+4.81%), Micron (+7.10%), Intel (-1.68%), Marvell Technology (+2.68%), Nvidia (+5.27%), Amazon (+2.27%), Oracle (+3.14%), Applied Optoelectronics (+18.68%), Google A (+2.07%), Meta (+0.69%), Microsoft (+0.37%), and AMD (+0.73%) [2]

国信证券近日发布锂电产业链双周评：电池端，宁德时代与岚图签署十年深化合作协议；宁德时代与思 源电气签署3年50GWh储能合作备忘录。材料端，宁德时代与韩国Enchem签署35万吨电解液订单；华友 钴业与国际知名客户签署7.96万吨三元前驱体订单；海科星源与法恩莱特签署电解液溶剂及添加剂3年 27万吨订单。 固态电池产业化加速推进：材料端，欣旺达动力与中伟股份签署固态电池战略合作框架协议。电池端， 美国QuantumScape与全球前十汽车制造商签署联合开发固态电池协议；美国Factorial宣布，已与CGCT 达成最终业务合并协议，双方合并后Factorial将在纳斯达克挂牌上市；金龙羽拟设15亿元产业并购基 金，聚焦新能源固态电池产业链投资。 锂电产业链大单不断：电池端，宁德时代与岚图签署十年深化合作协议；宁德时代与思源电气签署3年 50GWh储能合作备忘录。材料端，宁德时代与韩国Enchem签署35万吨电解液订单；华友钴业与国际知 名客户签署7.96万吨三元前驱体订单；海科星源与法恩莱特签署电解液溶剂及添加剂3年27万吨订单。 多家磷酸铁锂企业公告进行部分产线检修：12月25日至26日，湖南裕能、万润新能 ...

2025年，作为"十四五"规划收官的关键一年，我国能源结构转型在政策引导、技术创新与市场驱动的协 同发力下，呈现"清洁替代提速、智能升级赋能、区域协同深化"的鲜明特征。从沿海城市的海上能源岛 建设到内陆地区的绿电园区崛起，从工业领域的能效革命到建筑交通的全面低碳，城市作为能源消费和 碳排放的核心载体，正通过多元路径破解"碳锁"制约，为新型能源体系建设筑牢坚实根基。 政策协同发力 筑牢绿色转型制度根基 能源转型的稳步推进，离不开顶层设计与地方实践的同频共振。今年《政府工作报告》明确提出"协同 推进降碳减污扩绿增长，加快经济社会发展全面绿色转型"，将城市能源结构调整纳入核心任务。7月召 开的中央城市工作会议，进一步把"着力建设绿色低碳的美丽城市"列为七大重点任务之一，为全年城市 能源发展锚定方向。 随后，一系列配套政策密集出台：《关于有序推动绿电直连发展有关事项的通知》规范绿电直接交易机 制，《关于完善省内天然气管道运输价格机制的指导意见》优化能源价格形成体系，《交通运输部等十 部门关于推动交通运输与能源融合发展的指导意见》推动跨领域绿色协同，从机制保障、价格调控、跨 域融合等多个维度，构建起全方位的政策支撑体系 ...

国金证券近日发布黑色金属周报：本周中信钢铁行业指数涨幅3.4%，跑赢上证综指1.5%。原料端，本 周铁矿价格小幅上涨，焦煤价格弱稳。据我们测算，本周国内长流程、短流程吨钢毛利分别环比-9.7 元、-7.4元，钢厂平均吨净利为-31.2元。据Mysteel统计，钢企盈利率在37.2%，钢铁行业基本面底部稳 定。 以下为研究报告摘要： 本周行情综述 行业概况：本周中信钢铁行业指数涨幅3.4%，跑赢上证综指1.5%。原料端，本周铁矿价格小幅上涨， 焦煤价格弱稳。据我们测算，本周国内长流程、短流程吨钢毛利分别环比-9.7元、-7.4元，钢厂平均吨 净利为-31.2元。据Mysteel统计，钢企盈利率在37.2%，钢铁行业基本面底部稳定。 钢铁：本周国内热轧板卷价格涨跌互现，本周国内热轧板卷价格涨跌互现，全国24个主要市场3.0mm热 轧板卷价格均价为3342元/吨，较上周下降8元/吨；4.75mm热轧板卷均价为3288元/吨，较上周下降8元/ 吨。本周京津冀价格弱势下跌，成交偏弱。基本面，据Mysteel，目前市场现货价格基本都是低价促成 交为主，现货价格也是出现了升水状态。市场投机情绪差，刚需逢低补库为主。从产业端 ...

Group 1 - Precious metals have seen a rapid increase this week, driven by a better-than-expected decline in the US CPI, opening up room for interest rate cuts in 2026, and improving the probability of a soft landing [1][2] - Domestic funds have gained pricing power in the absence of overseas markets, leading to historic price movements for silver, platinum, and palladium, while gold has underperformed in this period [1][2] - Short-term outlook remains positive for precious metals due to inflows from ETF allocations amid interest rate cut trades, with a long-term view favoring continued holding despite volatility [2] Group 2 - Copper prices are expected to rise again, with Shanghai copper increasing by 5.95% this week, surpassing the 100,000 yuan mark, influenced by improved market sentiment following the US CPI decline [2] - The anticipated supply-demand tightness in copper for 2026 is supported by downward adjustments in production forecasts from Freeport and Teck Resources, alongside expectations of increased fiscal spending from the US government [2] Group 3 - Aluminum prices increased by 0.99% this week, following copper price trends, with low inventory levels reported at 617,000 tons, indicating a slight increase from earlier in the week [3] - Despite being in a traditional off-season, demand from automotive, power, and electronics sectors remains resilient, suggesting a stable outlook for aluminum prices [3] Group 4 - Nickel prices have surged due to a shift in market expectations, with Indonesia planning to reduce nickel production quotas for 2026 by approximately 34% compared to 2025 levels [4] - The actual production in Indonesia is expected to be significantly lower than the approved quotas, which may lead to upward pressure on nickel prices in the long term [4] Group 5 - Tungsten prices have experienced fluctuations, remaining above 450,000 yuan per ton, but have recently declined due to profit-taking by suppliers and concerns over mining quotas at the beginning of the year [5] - The supply of tungsten is expected to continue declining in 2026, with limited large-scale substitution from high-speed steel products, indicating that tungsten prices may remain high [5] Group 6 - Investment recommendations include companies such as Shengda Resources, Xingye Silver Tin, Chifeng Gold, Shenhuo Co., and Zijin Mining [6]

①原油运价大幅回落，远洋航线运价上涨。原油运价大幅回落。12月25日，上海航运交易所发布的中国 进口原油综合指数（CTFI）报1354.35点，较12月18日下跌40.6%。本周VLCC市场进入圣诞假期，中东 航线货主持续控制出货节奏，且坚挺数周的高位运价与其他航线价差拉大，吸引大量运力集聚，而船东 期待的1月装期货量低于市场预期，挺价态度完全松动，运价高位大幅回调。西非、美湾航线也呈现量 价齐跌态势。欧线方面，本周运输需求相对稳定，即期市场订舱价格在签约季保持涨势。12月26日，上 海港出口至欧洲基本港市场运价为1690美元/TEU，较上期上涨10.2%。美线方面，本周运输需求表现良 好，推动市场运价继续上行。12月26日，上海港出口至美西和美东基本港市场运价分别为2188美 元/FEU和3033美元/FEU，分别较上期上涨9.8%、6.6%。②发改委印发《低空经济及其核心产业统计分 类（试行）》，亿航浙江中心与浙江之翼eVTOL中心启用。国家发展改革委印发《低空经济及其核心 产业统计分类（试行）》，核心目的为明确低空经济概念范畴与产业边界，适配行业阶段性发展特征， 为统计调查、产业链识别、政策制定提供核心 ...

Group 1 - The fluorochemical index increased by 7.76% this week, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 5.88% [2] - The fluorochemical index closed at 5333.59 points, marking a 7.76% increase, and surpassed the performance of the CSI 300 Index by 5.81% and the basic chemical index by 3.18% [2] - The average price of fluorite 97 wet powder remained stable at 3,290 CNY/ton as of December 26, with a December average of 3,300 CNY/ton, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 10.13% [3] Group 2 - The prices of refrigerants as of December 26 are as follows: R32 at 63,000 CNY/ton, R125 at 47,500 CNY/ton, R134a at 58,000 CNY/ton, R410a at 54,000 CNY/ton, and R22 at 16,000 CNY/ton, with various price changes noted [4] - There is a recovery in confidence among refrigerant companies and distributors regarding seasonal demand, leading to price increases for several refrigerant products [5] - The company Jinshi Resources plans to acquire a 15.7147% stake in Noah Fluorochemical for 257 million CNY, becoming the second-largest shareholder [6] Group 3 - Recommended stocks benefiting from the fluorochemical sector include Jinshi Resources, Juhua Co., Sanmei Co., and Haohua Technology, with other beneficiaries being Dongyangguang, Yonghe Co., Dongyue Group, and Xinzhoubang [7]

Core Viewpoint - The coal mining industry is experiencing a decline in capacity utilization for both thermal and coking coal, indicating potential shifts in supply and demand dynamics [1][3]. Group 1: Capacity Utilization - As of December 26, the capacity utilization rate for sample thermal coal mines is 86.4%, down 4.0 percentage points week-on-week [1][3]. - The capacity utilization rate for sample coking coal mines is 84.21%, down 2.4 percentage points week-on-week [1][3]. Group 2: Price Trends - Thermal coal prices at Qinhuangdao port (Q5500) are reported at 677 RMB/ton, a decrease of 34 RMB/ton week-on-week [2]. - The price of thermal coal in Shanxi (Q6000) is 765 RMB/ton, an increase of 5.0 RMB/ton week-on-week [2]. - International thermal coal prices have also seen declines, with Newcastle (NEWC5500) at 74.0 USD/ton, down 0.5 USD/ton week-on-week [2]. Group 3: Demand and Consumption - Daily coal consumption in coastal provinces has increased by 11.30 thousand tons/day, a rise of 5.53% week-on-week [4]. - Daily coal consumption in inland provinces has increased by 20.90 thousand tons/day, a rise of 5.56% week-on-week [4]. - Chemical coal consumption has decreased by 2.57 thousand tons/day, down 0.35% week-on-week [4]. Group 4: Investment Outlook - The current phase is viewed as the early stage of a new upward cycle in the coal economy, with a recommendation for low-cost allocation in the coal sector [5]. - The coal market is expected to maintain a weak operational trend due to high port inventories and above-average temperatures [5]. - The investment logic of coal capacity shortages remains unchanged, with expectations for price stabilization and potential valuation increases [6][7]. Group 5: Recommendations - Focus on stable and high-performing companies such as China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and China Coal Energy, as well as those with high elasticity like Yanzhou Coal and Guohua Energy [7]. - Attention should also be given to high-quality metallurgical coal companies due to their unique resource scarcity [7].