图为美联储联邦基金有效利率 会后美联储发布的声明显示，当前美国经济前景不确定性上升，上半年经济增速放缓，但失业率仍处于低 位，就业市场状况依旧稳健，通胀也仍然略高。不过，声明对未来政策路径并未给出太多指引信号。整体来 看，7月利率声明与6月相比变动较小，主要变化为肯定经济增速放缓以及票委内部分歧加剧，然而无论是政 策声明还是随后的新闻发布会，均未对未来政策路径给出太多指引。这表明近期关税政策扰动、白宫方面的 威胁等因素并未动摇美联储的政策立场，美联储基本延续了过去几个月的观望态度。 在随后的新闻发布会上，鲍威尔重申，当前美联储"适度紧缩"的货币政策立场是恰当的，这允许央行在调整 政策前，进一步洞悉美国经济的潜在发展趋势以及所面临的风险。当被问及市场高度关注的9月降息前景时， 鲍威尔回应称，届时美联储会依据各类经济数据等信息来做出决策，但不会提前决定。 对通胀前景，鲍威尔态度谨慎。他表示，高关税已开始更明显地在美国商品价格上体现出来，不过其对经济 活动和通胀的整体影响仍有待观察。在"合理情境"下，关税对通胀的影响或许是暂时的，但他同时警告，关 税有可能引发更持久的通胀。鲍威尔强调："美联储的职责是确保长期通胀预 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Beijing futures industry is actively implementing the spirit of the Central Eight Regulations and strengthening the political ecology to ensure the completion of annual work tasks [1][6]. Group 1: Political Education and Learning - Futures companies in Beijing are prioritizing the study and implementation of the Central Eight Regulations, with organizations like COFCO Futures and Guoyuan Futures holding meetings to deploy educational initiatives [2][3]. - The Beijing Futures Association organized concentrated theoretical learning sessions for party branch leaders, providing over 200 sets of educational materials to help member units understand the regulations deeply [2][4]. Group 2: Focused Learning Approaches - Companies are adopting various learning methods, including interactive and immersive learning models, to enhance understanding of the importance of party conduct and the Central Eight Regulations [3][4]. - Special meetings and discussions are being held to share insights and lessons learned from past experiences related to party conduct, emphasizing the significance of adhering to the regulations [3][4]. Group 3: Problem-Oriented Approach and Rectification - The futures companies are focusing on identifying and addressing issues related to the implementation of the Central Eight Regulations, with macro and micro-level assessments being conducted [5]. - COFCO Futures and other companies are utilizing surveys and problem lists to comprehensively identify shortcomings in their adherence to the regulations, ensuring accountability among leadership [5]. Group 4: Commitment to Continuous Improvement - The Beijing futures industry is committed to enhancing its political stance and action consciousness, ensuring that the education on the Central Eight Regulations is integrated into all aspects of work [6].

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Group 1 - The main inflows in commodity futures (main contracts) yesterday were in polysilicon, coking coal, palm oil, gold, and lithium carbonate, with inflows of 533 million, 462 million, 397 million, 222 million, and 146 million respectively [1] - The main outflows were in soda ash, soybean meal, iron ore, copper, and industrial silicon, with outflows of 248 million, 168 million, 132 million, 124 million, and 102 million respectively [1] - Overall, commodity futures showed a slight inflow, with non-ferrous metals, black metals, and agricultural products experiencing inflows, while the chemical and financial futures sectors saw outflows [1] Group 2 - Key commodities with significant inflows include gold, silver, coking coal, and timber, while notable outflows were observed in soybean meal, iron ore, copper, and white sugar [1] - The chemical sector experienced substantial outflows, particularly in soda ash, rubber, and glass, while there were notable inflows in bottle sheets and LPG [1] - In the financial sector, attention is focused on the 30-year treasury bonds and the CSI 300 index futures [1]

Core Insights - The futures market in China experienced significant growth in July, with trading volume reaching 1.059 billion contracts and trading value at 7.131 trillion yuan, marking year-on-year increases of 48.89% and 36.03% respectively [1] - Cumulative trading volume for the first seven months of the year was 5.135 billion contracts, with a total trading value of 41.104 trillion yuan, both showing year-on-year growth of approximately 23% [1] - The total open interest in the futures market at the end of July increased by 3.98% compared to the previous month [1] Trading Performance by Exchange - Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) saw a year-on-year increase in trading volume and value of 13.23% and 2.19% respectively [1] - Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) reported a trading volume and value increase of 33.24% and 33.18% respectively [1] - Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange (ZCE) experienced a significant rise in trading volume and value, with increases of 58.46% and 23.26% respectively [1] - The China Financial Futures Exchange (CFFEX) had a notable increase in trading volume and value of 35.11% and 64.79% respectively [1] - Guangxi Futures Exchange (GFE) reported extraordinary growth, with trading volume and value increasing by 513.26% and 597.73% respectively [1] Leading Products by Trading Volume and Value - The top three products by trading volume on SHFE were rebar futures, silver futures, and hot-rolled coil futures [2] - ZCE's leading products included glass futures, soda ash futures, and PTA futures [2] - DCE's top products were coking coal futures, soybean meal futures, and PVC futures [2] - CFFEX's leading products by trading value were CSI 1000 index futures, 30-year treasury bond futures, and CSI 300 index futures [2] Market Trends and Future Outlook - The overall activity in the futures market increased in July, providing strong support for financial market stability and economic development [2] - Significant growth was observed in various sectors, particularly in black metals and building materials, which saw trading volume increase by 97.6% and trading value by 94.6% month-on-month [2] - Analysts expect continued high trading activity in August, with projected trading volume between 900 million to 1 billion contracts and trading value around 6 trillion yuan [3] - The "anti-involution" policy and expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September are anticipated to be key factors influencing commodity prices [3]

Core Insights - The Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) has adapted its training programs to meet the specific needs of various industries, focusing on practical applications of futures and options in risk management [1][2][6] - Customized training has become a key feature, allowing companies to request specific content that addresses their unique challenges and operational contexts [2][5] - The DCE has expanded its training reach significantly, serving over 5,000 enterprises in 2024, with a focus on tailored, one-on-one training sessions for large companies [3][4] Customization of Content - DCE has shifted from a standard training menu to a more tailored approach, incorporating specific case studies and examples relevant to the participants' procurement cycles [2][5] - Feedback from companies has led to the inclusion of topics such as hedging accounting and delivery rules for iron ore, enhancing the relevance of the training [2][3] - The training now covers a broader range of topics, including basis trading and regulatory policies, addressing the multifaceted needs of the industry [2][6] Diversification of Training Methods - The DCE has moved away from large group lectures to more personalized training formats, allowing companies to "order" specific content based on their needs [2][3] - This shift has resulted in a more engaging and effective learning environment, with participants reporting improved training outcomes [3][4] Expansion of Collaboration - The DCE has developed a collaborative training ecosystem, partnering with various stakeholders, including financial institutions, industry associations, and local governments [5][6] - This collaborative approach has enhanced the quality and effectiveness of training programs, creating a network that supports industry-wide knowledge sharing [5][6] Focus on Practical Application - The DCE's training programs have evolved from merely delivering knowledge to fostering practical skills and capabilities among participants [6] - The emphasis is now on addressing real-world challenges faced by enterprises, with training designed to enhance operational capabilities and risk management strategies [6] - The growth in the number of industry clients and their trading volumes indicates the effectiveness of these training initiatives [6]

本报讯为切实履行市场一线监管职责，规范期货交易行为，防范化解市场风险，保障市场参与者的合法 权益，大商所持续对异常和违规交易行为进行查处，7月处理异常交易行为6起。 据介绍，被处理的这些异常交易行为均系自成交超限。大商所已通过会员单位对上述达到异常交易处理 标准的客户进行电话提示。 此外，大商所7月调查处理违规交易线索8起，包括涉嫌约定交易转移资金类2起、自成交或约定交易影 响合约价格类6起，已对相关客户开展调查并采取相应措施。（齐宣） （文章来源：期货日报网） ...

Core Insights - The domestic futures market in China added 410,000 new clients in the first half of 2025, representing a 2.5% increase compared to the same period last year [1] - As of the end of June 2025, the total number of effective clients in the market reached 2.61 million, marking a historical high with a year-on-year growth of 12% [1] Client Structure Improvement - The number of institutional clients increased by 43% compared to the same period in 2022 [1] - The growth of overseas clients was even more pronounced, with a 63% increase compared to 2022 [1] - Traders from 39 countries or regions are currently participating in China's futures market, indicating a steady progress in the internationalization of the market [1] Market Influence and Development - The influence of China's futures market has been continuously rising, playing a unique role in serving national strategies and the real economy [1] - The number of futures account openings has maintained steady growth, and the effective client scale continues to expand, injecting new momentum into the stable and healthy development of the futures market [1]

（文章来源：期货日报网） 本报讯 8月5日，国家粮食和物资储备局发布通知，根据小麦和稻谷最低收购价执行预案等相关政策规 定，经研究，同意自2025年8月6日起在江苏省内符合条件的地区启动2025年小麦最低收购价执行预案。 ...

近日，国务院常务会议审议通过《关于深入实施"人工智能+"行动的意见》，提出发挥中国产业体系完 备、市场规模大、应用场景丰富等优势，推动人工智能在经济社会发展各领域加快普及、深度融合。 "目前，社会各界应用需求强烈，AI处在应用落地的关键窗口期。"国家发展改革委政策研究室主任、新 闻发言人蒋毅8月1日表示。 天勤量化核心成员李思恒在接受期货日报记者采访时表示，从期货公司的角度来看，人工智能在替代重 复性、批量化的程式化任务方面展现出显著优势。 尽管AI带来了巨大机遇，但其在期货行业的应用也面临一系列挑战。中山大学岭南学院教授韩乾认 为，数据质量参差不齐、算法可能存在偏见、复杂模型的"黑箱"问题导致可解释性不足、数据安全与隐 私保护的压力。另外，AI对现有员工岗位技能也提出了新的要求。 韩乾建议，期货公司在积极拥抱AI的同时，必须高度重视数据治理体系建设，加强模型风险管理与验 证，投入资源进行人才技能的转型升级培训，并建立健全AI应用的伦理规范和安全保障机制，确保技 术的健康可持续发展。 南华期货总经理贾晓龙认为，AI大模型迅猛发展，正深刻重塑全球衍生品行业生态格局，市场业态 从"经验驱动"转向"数据智能驱动"模 ...