瑞达期货 预计沪锡短期宽幅调整 铜冠金源期货：预计锡价延续调整，跌势或有放缓 整体来看，市场流动性收紧，锡价跟随贵金属剧烈波动。基本面亦不支持当前高价，下游焊料、电子制 造企业对高价原料接受度较低，维持按需采购，周度社会延续环比回升态势。同时原料供应端扰动降 温，且临近国内元旦假期，资金存落袋需求。短期市场情绪回落，预计锡价延续调整，跌势或有放缓。 12月30日盘中，沪锡期货主力合约遭遇一波急速下挫，最低下探至316730.00元。截止发稿，沪锡主力 合约报326910.00元，跌幅4.51%。 沪锡期货主力跌超4%，对于后市行情如何，相关机构该如何评价？ 机构 核心观点 铜冠金源期货 预计锡价延续调整，跌势或有放缓 瑞达期货（002961）：预计沪锡短期宽幅调整 宏观面，特朗普：正考虑以"严重失职"为由起诉鲍威尔，1月或公布下任美联储主席人选。基本面，供 应端，国内锡矿进口供应仍相对较紧，锡矿加工费维持低位。缅甸复产推进叠加雨季结束，提供了部分 锡矿供应增量；但其地地区供应仍具有较大不稳定性，整体锡矿进口量仍处于较低水平。冶炼端，当前 锡矿原料紧张，大部分企业原料库存还是偏低，对大多数企业来说处于亏本状况， ...

Core Viewpoint - The global precious metals market experienced extreme volatility on December 29, with gold prices plummeting by $195 per ounce, marking a 4.31% drop, primarily due to increased margin requirements by the CME [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - Gold prices fell sharply from a historical high of $4,549.69 per ounce, closing down 4.4% [1]. - Silver reached a new high of $83.94 per ounce before dropping 8.9% [1]. - Platinum and palladium also faced significant declines, with prices dropping by approximately 14% and nearly 16%, respectively [1]. Group 2: Market Drivers - The recent price correction is attributed to profit-taking after significant price increases earlier in the year, with silver showing a remarkable annual gain of 147% [2]. - Factors contributing to silver's performance include its critical role in key minerals, supply shortages, and rising industrial and investment demand [2]. - Despite the short-term adjustments, the long-term outlook for precious metals remains optimistic, particularly for silver due to supply constraints [2]. Group 3: Technical Analysis - For gold, the short-term top has been established, with key support levels at $4,300, $4,280, and $4,255-$4,250, while resistance levels are at $4,365-$4,370, $4,400, and $4,440-$4,435 [3]. - In silver, maintaining prices above the 5-day and 10-day moving averages is crucial for the bullish trend; however, a drop below these levels could lead to deeper corrections [4]. - Platinum is expected to enter a consolidation phase, with strong support at the $1,700 level and resistance at $2,160 and the $2,280-$2,320 range [5]. Group 4: Price Volatility - Palladium is known for its extreme volatility, with a recent drop of over $400 in a single day, reversing its previous strong trend [5]. - The short-term support for palladium is now at $1,500-$1,550, while resistance levels are identified at $1,750-$1,730, $1,820-$1,850, and near the recent high of $1,980 [5].

需求方面，瑞达期货（002961）分析称，华东、西北MTO企业负荷稍降，上周国内甲醇制烯烃行业开 工继续下降，短期华东、西北个别企业将延续降负荷状态，行业开工率预期窄幅下降。 库存方面，据金信期货介绍，截至2025年12月24日，中国甲醇港口库存总量在141.25万吨，较上一期数 据增加19.37万吨。其中，华东地区累库，库存增加20.77万吨；华南地区去库，库存减少1.40万吨。 12月30日，国内期市能化板块涨跌互现。其中，甲醇期货盘中高位震荡运行，截至发稿主力合约大幅上 涨2.73%，报2219.00元/吨。 后市来看，国投安信期货表示，甲醇盘面偏强运行。进口卸货速度加快，上周港口库存大幅增加。进入 1月后，进口到港量预计逐步缩减，且沿海MTO装置重启时间临近，中长期港口库存或进入去库周期。 内地以及港口行情分化，短期沿海卸货集中，港口呈现累库，中期来看行情或偏强运行，关注5-9月差 正套。 供应方面，华联期货指出，火电日耗持续低于往年同期水平，高库存与弱需求的核心矛盾持续发酵，煤 价呈现震荡下行态势；国内甲醇开工率与产量高位维持，国际甲醇开工率降至低位，明年1月进口压力 下降，供应压力减少。 ...

今日周二(12月30日)欧盘时段，国际白银目前交投于73.64一线上方，今日开盘于72.19美元/盎司，截至发稿，国际白银 暂报74.65美元/盎司，上涨3.47%，最高触及75.16美元/盎司，最低下探71.12美元/盎司，目前来看，国际白银盘内短线 偏向看涨走势。 【要闻速递】 美国总统特朗普周一表示，美国最近对委内瑞拉一处码头区域发动了袭击，该处是毒品被装上船只并贩运至国际水域的 地点，他声称那里发生了"大爆炸"。 【最新国际白银行情解析】 正接近位于74.00美元区域的21周期简单移动均线，该均线目前提供支撑，凸显了更广泛的看涨倾向。相对强弱指标 (RSI)在从超买区域回调后，目前位于54.79，接近中性水平；而异同移动均线(MACD)在近期高点后转而向下逼近零 线，表明上行动能正在减弱。 若跌破上述21周期均线，下一支撑位见于72.60美元(即12月24日受阻水平)，以及69.60美元至70.20美元区域(此处50周期 均线与12月24日低点及12月22日高点交汇)。 "他们把毒品装上船。所以我们打击了所有船只，现在我们打击了那个区域，"特朗普在其海湖庄园回答记者提问时 说，"那是他们的实施区域。他 ...

Moneyfarm的分析师Richard Flax在一份报告中说，美国经济预计将在2026年实现稳健增长。他说，对人 工智能行业的大量投资、美联储降低利率以及政府的支持可能会促进经济增长。 另外，市场对地缘局势的担忧情绪有所回升，也吸引避险买盘支撑银价。当地时间12月29日，央视记者 获悉，美国总统特朗普在采访中表示，美军在委内瑞拉行动中摧毁了一座"大型设施"。但他没有提供有 关此次行动的更多细节。 同日，俄罗斯指责乌克兰对俄罗斯总统府在俄罗斯北部的住宅发动无人机袭击，这促使莫斯科重新考虑 其在和平谈判中的立场。 日图来看，纸白银昨日暴跌，今日价格持续回温上涨，目前涨超4%，布林带向上开口，表明目前处于 上涨轨道，一小时DMI显示警惕回调风险，MACD向零线倾斜，表明目前上涨动能减弱，纸白银走势下 方关注14.50-15.50支撑，上方关注16.50-17.00阻力。 今日周二(12月30日)欧盘时段，纸白银目前交投于16.694一线上方，今日开盘于16.071元/克，截至发 稿，纸白银暂报16.809元/克，上涨4.38%，最高触及16.891元/克，最低下探15.947元/克，目前来看，纸 白银盘内短线偏 ...

Group 1 - Silver prices surged on December 29, approaching $84 per ounce, driven by a spike in Asian investment demand, but experienced a sharp reversal shortly after [2] - The premium for Shanghai spot silver exceeded $8 per ounce over the London benchmark, marking the largest recorded price difference [2] - The global silver market has been in a structural deficit for five consecutive years, with physical inventories rapidly depleting and significant declines in stock levels at major exchanges [2] Group 2 - Global silver demand reached 1.24 billion ounces, while supply was only 1.01 billion ounces, indicating a supply gap of 100 to 250 million ounces [2] - The core reason for the supply-demand imbalance is the rigidity of global mining supply, as silver is primarily a byproduct of copper and zinc mining, and new mines typically take over 10 years to develop [2] - The increase in recycling is insufficient to fill the supply gap, leaving the supply side weak in the face of rising demand [2] Group 3 - London silver prices rose during early trading, attempting to find a low point to gain bullish momentum for recovery, supported by dynamic support above the EMA50 [3] - Positive signals from the relative strength index indicate a dominant bullish trend, with signs of divergence beginning to emerge after reaching oversold levels [3]

今日周二（12月30日）亚盘时段，黄金期货目前交投于986.14附近，截至发稿，黄金期货暂986.14元/ 克，跌幅2.98%，最高触及1007.12元/克，最低下探970.02元/克。目前来看，黄金期货短线偏向震荡走 势。 打开APP，查看更多高清行情>> 【要闻速递】 市场最忌不确定性，联储主席换人前景已引发债市、汇市与股市波动。投资者须权衡多种情景——特朗 普或提名鸽派低利率支持者，亦可能选鹰派抗通胀者，不同选择将影响借贷成本与增长。 此时经济挑战叠加：多领域通胀仍高于2%目标，增长显露放缓迹象。联储须在就业与物价稳定间平 衡，两者常冲突。领导层更迭或改变优先序，在政策明朗前，企业投资与招聘或暂缓。 【最新黄金期货行情解析】 从日线结构看，沪金自前期低点启动后，整体沿稳步抬高的上升通道运行，沪金价格始终稳于中期均线 之上，趋势方向依旧偏多。 目前沪金价格在978一线附近横盘整理，属前一轮拉升后的正常技术性消化。K线形态上，高位未现放 量长阴或连续破位，显示抛压可控，多头并未撤离。 要点在于，中期技术优势仍未改变，短期需关注970–965区域支撑的有效性。 美联储依法独立运作，不受直接政治干预，这一原则历 ...

Group 1 - Gold prices showed a slight rebound, trading around $4361.46 per ounce, attempting to recover some of the previous losses amid oversold conditions indicated by the relative strength index [1] - Russia accused Ukraine of a drone attack on a presidential residence, prompting Moscow to reconsider its stance in peace negotiations, while Ukraine denied the allegations [1] - The CME raised margin requirements for gold, silver, and other metals, requiring traders to provide more cash to ensure contract fulfillment [1] - The National Association of Realtors reported a 3.3% month-over-month increase in pending home sales in the U.S. for November, surpassing expectations and marking the highest level since February 2023 [1] Group 2 - Technically, gold is trading positively, remaining above the key 100-day exponential moving average, with the Bollinger Bands expanding [2] - Immediate resistance is noted at the upper boundary of the Bollinger Bands at $4520, with a potential test of historical highs at $4550 and the psychological level of $4600 if broken [2] - Initial support for gold is found in the $4305-$4300 range, representing the low from December 29, with further selling pressure potentially targeting the December 16 low of $4271 if breached [2]

12月30日，国内期市有色金属板块有涨有跌。其中，沪镍期货主力合约开盘报126480.00元/吨，今日盘 中高位震荡运行；截至发稿，沪镍主力最高触及133330.00元，下方探低125710.00元，涨幅达3.71%。 五矿期货表示，目前镍过剩压力依旧较大，但受印尼宣称缩减RKAB配额以及拟对钴元素征税影响，市 场看空情绪衰竭，短期镍价底部或已经出现。操作方面，短期建议观望。沪镍价格运行区间参考11.0- 13.5万元/吨，伦镍3M合约运行区间参考1.30-1.60万美元/吨。 华联期货分析称，印尼国内矿业政策改变扰动仍在；印尼MHP产能释放压制价格，11月国内镍进口保 持高位，11月印尼镍铁供应维持高位；11月份电解镍产量高位小幅回落。精炼镍社库小幅走高；需求 端：不锈钢产量高位小幅回落；硫酸盐需求不足，有边际改善迹象；不锈钢库存出现降低；矿端有支 撑；技术上震荡反弹；预计镍价整体低位震荡加剧；操作上，短线偏多交易；期权方面：轻仓买入虚值 看涨、看跌期权。后期关注矿端、不锈钢产量、印尼镍元素政策的变化。临近元旦假期，注意控制仓位 或用期权保护。 徽商期货认为，作为低估值的品种，沪镍在消息的扰动下承接了板块内 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a significant decline in lithium carbonate futures, with the main contract dropping by 2.25% to 123,500 yuan per ton as of the report date [1][2] Group 2 - In terms of fundamentals, Hualian Futures reports a slight increase in lithium carbonate production last week, with domestic lithium salt plants maintaining high operating rates and new capacity from salt lake lithium extraction being continuously released [2] - Demand-side concerns have risen, as New Lake Futures notes that the secretary-general of the Passenger Car Association, Cui Dongshu, anticipates a year-on-year increase of 5% in new energy vehicle sales for Q1 2026, but a 36% decrease compared to the previous quarter [2] - On the inventory front, Everbright Futures indicates a weekly inventory decrease of 652 tons to 109,773 tons, with downstream inventory dropping by 1,593 tons to 39,892 tons, while other segments saw an increase of 1,180 tons to 52,030 tons, and upstream inventory decreased by 239 tons to 17,851 tons [2] Group 3 - Looking ahead, Zhongyuan Futures suggests that the actual trend of lithium carbonate has surpassed previous forecasts, indicating a reversal in market sentiment after a steep upward trend has ended. The strategy recommended is to remain cautious and watch for potential further price declines, with a support level around 117,400 yuan and a resistance level at the settlement price of 126,340 yuan [2]