Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) soybean oil futures prices are experiencing a continuous upward trend, with the current price at 50.56 cents per pound, reflecting a 0.42% increase [1] - On January 12, the opening price for soybean oil futures was 49.80 cents per pound, reaching a high of 50.89 cents and closing at 50.25 cents, marking an increase of 1.11% [2] - As of January 9, 2026, the commercial inventory of soybean oil in key regions of the country stands at 1.0251 million tons, which is a decrease of 55,900 tons or 5.17% compared to the previous week [2] Group 2 - On January 12, the number of soybean oil futures warehouse receipts at the Dalian Commodity Exchange was 29,197, a decrease of 229 from the previous trading day [2] - The national first-level soybean oil trading volume on January 12 was 19,500 tons, which is a decrease of 11.36% compared to the previous trading day [2]

【要闻速递】 匈牙利外长西雅尔多12日表示，若英国和法国向乌克兰派遣军队，将给北约带来与俄罗斯发生直接冲突 的严重风险。作为乌克兰的邻国，匈牙利存在被拖入战争的可能性。 欧盟负责防务的高级官员库比柳斯12日表示，如丹麦提出请求，欧盟可为格陵兰岛提供安全支持。他同 时警告，若美国以军事手段夺取格陵兰岛，将意味着北约"走向终结"。 今日周二(1月13日)亚盘时段，黄金期货目前交投于1035附近，截至发稿，黄金期货暂1027.68元/克，涨 幅1.06%，最高触及1035.34元/克，最低下探1025.10元/克。目前来看，黄金期货短线偏向看涨走势。 打开APP，查看更多高清行情>> 格陵兰岛自治政府12日发布声明，强调在任何情况下都无法接受美国接管。声明指出，格陵兰岛是丹麦 王国的一部分，也是北约的一部分，其防务应通过北约来实现。格陵兰岛自治政府将与丹麦一道，推动 在北约框架内开展防务事务。 【最新黄金期货行情解析】 沪金主力合约AU2602于2026年1月12日强势上行，日内最高触及1031.30元/克，收盘报1024.78元/克，涨 幅2.36%，创历史新高，受中东与俄乌地缘紧张及美联储降息预期升温（12月非 ...

摘要今日周二(1月13日)亚盘时段，现货黄金最新报价为1028.24元/克，较前一交易日下跌3.16美元，跌 幅0.31%，日内震荡。当日开盘价为1031.27元/克，最高价为1033.33元/克，最低价为1026.31元/克。 今日周二(1月13日)亚盘时段，现货黄金最新报价为1028.24元/克，较前一交易日下跌3.16美元，跌幅 0.31%，日内震荡。当日开盘价为1031.27元/克，最高价为1033.33元/克，最低价为1026.31元/克。 【要闻速递】 机构表示，黄金在2026年初挺过了税收亏损卖压、投资组合再平衡及波动逆风，已重回上行趋势并创三 项历史新高。频繁的地缘政治冲击推高风险溢价，利好黄金；特朗普政府对美联储的指控进一步推动现 货黄金至4600美元，强化"战略配置黄金有益投资组合"的观点。 黄金价格持续受地缘政治动荡提振。世界黄金协会(WGC)指出，即便当前金价已达每盎司4600美元，但 技术面显示，在突破每盎司4770美元前，尚未进入极度超买状态。 本周关键数据包括：周二美国12月CPI(核心月率或升至0.4%)、周四英国11月GDP(或显增长停滞)及德国 2025年全年GDP(或微增 ...

Group 1 - Precious metals experienced high volatility, with spot gold trading around $4,590 and silver retreating to below $85 on January 13, following news of Powell potentially facing criminal investigation, which drove prices to historical highs [1][2] - Spot gold briefly surpassed $4,600, closing up 1.97% at $4,597.94 per ounce, while silver reached a record high of $86 before closing up 6.51% at $85.16 per ounce [1] - Multiple exchanges globally announced enhanced risk control measures due to significant price fluctuations in precious metals, with the Chicago Mercantile Exchange changing margin requirements for gold and silver contracts to a percentage of nominal value [2] Group 2 - The Shanghai Gold Exchange issued a notice regarding the adjustment of the gold ETF's subscription and redemption processes, pausing these activities for one day on January 16, 2026, to ensure smooth operations [3] - Analysts from various futures companies noted that geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and the Americas, along with concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve, are driving precious metal prices upward [4][5] - The market is currently characterized by high volatility, with gold maintaining a strong position while silver may face increased risks in the short term [4][5]

相比之下，黄金资产规模有限：北美黄金ETF(如SPDR Gold Shares)总资产2900亿美元，白银基金约500 亿美元;实物黄金持有量稍多但仍有限，近期美国实物黄金净购买量仅为泰国的一半。 核心结论：此举或在金银圈内受青睐，但导致金融损失的风险远大于获益可能。 【最新黄金t+d行情解析】 摘要今日周二(1月13日)亚盘时段，黄金T+D目前交投于1030元附近，截至发稿，黄金T+D暂报1024.66 元/克，涨幅0.56%，最高触及1031.50元/克，最低下探1022.00元/克。目前来看，黄金T+D短线偏向看多 走势。 今日周二(1月13日)亚盘时段，黄金t+d目前交投于1030元附近，截至发稿，黄金t+d暂报1024.66元/克， 涨幅0.56%，最高触及1031.50元/克，最低下探1022.00元/克。目前来看，黄金t+d短线偏向看多走势。 【要闻速递】 美国选民持有的美国国债规模远超金银资产，是其金银持有总量的12倍以上。 截至去年第三季度末，美国家庭直接持有3万亿美元美国国债，通过传统共同基金持有1.6万亿美元，通 过ETF持有6750亿美元，总计国债敞口约4.3万亿美元(尚未计入价格受美 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Euro is experiencing a narrow fluctuation against the US Dollar, currently trading around 1.1659, reflecting market caution ahead of key inflation data [1] Group 1: Central Bank Policies - The European Central Bank (ECB) maintains a stable policy stance, keeping key interest rates unchanged at 2.00%, 2.15%, and 2.40% as of December 2025, with inflation in the Eurozone at 2.0%, aligning with the ECB's target [2] - The market anticipates that the ECB will likely keep rates stable in 2026, providing support for the Euro [2] - In contrast, the Federal Reserve's policy path shows divergence, with internal debates on the need for sustained inflation moderation before further rate cuts, which supports the Dollar's resilience [2] Group 2: Economic Fundamentals and Market Sentiment - The Eurozone economy shows moderate resilience, with a growth rate of 1.4% in 2025 and an expected 1.2% in 2026, bolstered by increased fiscal spending in Germany and lower energy costs [3] - However, the recovery within the Eurozone remains uneven, with some member states lacking economic vitality, and global trade uncertainties posing potential pressures on exports [3] - The Euro appreciated over 13.4% against the Dollar in 2025, primarily driven by a weaker Dollar rather than significant improvements in its own fundamentals [3] Group 3: Technical Analysis and Key Data Indicators - Technically, the Euro to Dollar exchange rate is in a weak consolidation phase, with resistance at the 20-day moving average and support levels at 1.1652 and 1.1640 [4] - Key upcoming data includes the US December NFIB Small Business Confidence Index and the December CPI, which could significantly impact market expectations and the Euro's performance [4] - A stronger-than-expected inflation report could bolster the Dollar and suppress the Euro, while weaker data may lead to a rebound in the Euro [5]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of the USD/CHF exchange rate, influenced by diverging monetary policies of the Swiss National Bank (SNB) and the Federal Reserve, as well as economic fundamentals and market sentiment [2][3][4]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Divergence - The Swiss National Bank has maintained a low inflation environment, with a 2025 inflation rate of only 0.2%, the lowest in five years, and a core inflation rate of just 0.5%, significantly below the central bank's implicit target [2]. - The SNB has cut interest rates six times since 2024, bringing the key rate to 0.0% in June 2025, and has kept rates unchanged in September and December [2]. - Market expectations suggest that the SNB may have room for further easing in 2026, with the March meeting potentially being a window for policy adjustment, which could exert downward pressure on the Swiss franc [2]. Group 2: Economic Fundamentals - The Swiss economy is characterized by low growth and low inflation, with 2025 economic growth expected to remain moderate and no significant recession risks, but insufficient recovery momentum [3]. - The traditional safe-haven appeal of the Swiss franc has been subdued due to stable global risk sentiment, reducing its demand as a safe-haven currency [3]. - The strong Swiss franc has led to a 1.6% decrease in import prices, further suppressing domestic inflation and creating a "low inflation-stable rate" cycle that limits the franc's volatility [3]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Technical Analysis - The USD/CHF exchange rate has been oscillating within the 0.87-0.88 range, with balanced bullish and bearish forces [3]. - Some institutions believe that the resilience of Federal Reserve policies will support an upward movement in the exchange rate, targeting 0.8850, while others argue that limited easing space from the SNB and insufficient rebound momentum for the USD may restrict significant upward movement [3]. - Technical indicators show a clear short-term oscillation pattern for USD/CHF, with key support levels at 0.8740 and 0.8700, and resistance levels at 0.8780 and 0.8820 [4].

Core Viewpoint - The GBP/USD exchange rate is experiencing narrow fluctuations, currently trading around 1.3469, with market participants awaiting key U.S. inflation data and the Federal Reserve's meeting minutes for further direction [1]. Group 1: Central Bank Policy Divergence - The Bank of England is facing a dilemma between persistent inflation and economic weakness, leading to constrained policy adjustments. In December 2025, it slightly lowered rates by 25 basis points to 3.75% with a 5-4 vote, indicating internal divisions on inflation risks [2]. - Despite a decline in the UK inflation rate to 3.2% in November, it remains above the 2% target, and the Bank of England anticipates stagnation in economic growth for Q4 2025, further limiting recovery potential [2]. - The Federal Reserve's policy uncertainty is providing temporary support for the GBP. Cumulatively, the Fed has lowered rates by 75 basis points to a range of 3.5%-3.75% in 2025, with expectations for further cuts in 2026, which diminishes the medium-term appeal of the USD [2]. Group 2: Economic Fundamentals and Market Sentiment - The UK economy is projected to grow at only 1%-1.5% in 2026, significantly lower than the U.S. Additionally, the UK government faces an estimated budget deficit of approximately £30 billion, impacting market expectations [3]. - The labor market slowdown and structural unemployment are further constraining consumption and investment, while persistent inflation limits the Bank of England's ability to ease monetary policy, creating an unfavorable "weak growth + high inflation" scenario [3]. - Market sentiment shows the GBP/USD maintaining a volatile pattern at the start of the year, with technical rebounds observed. Some institutions believe Fed rate cut expectations may support the exchange rate testing resistance at 1.3550, while others warn that economic weaknesses and fiscal risks will limit upward potential, forecasting a balanced level around 1.31 [3]. Group 3: Technical Analysis and Key Data Guidance - Technically, the GBP/USD is finding support in the 1.3450-1.3480 range, showing signs of a technical recovery. The short-term moving average's downward slope is flattening, indicating reduced downward momentum [4]. - Key support levels are identified at 1.3450 and 1.3400, while resistance is noted at 1.3550, with potential further testing of the 1.3600-1.3650 range upon a breakout [4]. - The short-term trajectory of GBP/USD is highly dependent on key data and events, including the U.S. December NFIB Small Business Confidence Index and the December CPI and Core CPI, which will influence Fed policy expectations [4].

Core Viewpoint - The Australian dollar (AUD) is experiencing a narrow range of fluctuations against the US dollar (USD), currently trading around 0.6709, reflecting market caution ahead of key inflation data releases [1] Group 1: Central Bank Policies - The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has maintained its benchmark interest rate at 3.6% as of December 2025, indicating a stable policy outlook with inflation expected to return to the target range of 2%-3% in 2026 [2] - The Federal Reserve (Fed) has seen increasing policy divergence, with a cumulative rate cut of 75 basis points to a range of 3.5%-3.75% in 2025, and significant dissent among policymakers regarding future rate cuts [2] Group 2: Economic Fundamentals and Commodity Influence - Australia's economy is showing signs of weak recovery, with a GDP growth of 0.2% quarter-on-quarter and 1.3% year-on-year in Q1 2025, aided by stable commodity prices such as iron ore and coal [3] - The Australian dollar has appreciated over 5% against the USD in 2025, primarily due to Fed rate cuts and commodity price rebounds, despite domestic economic challenges [3] Group 3: Technical Analysis and Key Data Indicators - The technical outlook for the AUD/USD pair indicates short-term fluctuations, with resistance at 0.6730 and support levels at 0.6680 and 0.6650 [4] - Key upcoming data releases include the US NFIB Small Business Confidence Index and the December CPI, which are expected to influence Fed policy and, consequently, the AUD/USD exchange rate [4]

Core Viewpoint - The USD/CAD exchange rate is experiencing narrow fluctuations, currently trading around 1.3873, with market participants awaiting key economic data for direction [1]. Group 1: Central Bank Policies - The Bank of Canada has cut its benchmark interest rate to 3% as of January 2025, marking six consecutive rate cuts, focusing on economic recovery and inflation stability [2]. - The market interprets the end of the rate-cutting cycle for the Bank of Canada, which is expected to provide support for the Canadian dollar and limit the upside potential of the USD/CAD pair [2]. - The Federal Reserve has reduced rates by a total of 75 basis points to a range of 3.5%-3.75% in 2025, with increasing uncertainty regarding future policy direction [2]. Group 2: Economic Fundamentals and Commodity Influence - The Canadian economy is characterized by a mix of resilience and pressure, with gold exports failing to reverse the trade deficit, and consumer and investment momentum remaining insufficient [3]. - As a commodity currency, the Canadian dollar's performance is closely tied to oil prices, which are expected to face downward pressure due to forecasts of oversupply in the global oil market [3]. - Market sentiment indicates limited bullish momentum for the USD/CAD pair, with institutions like CIBC identifying 1.35 as a strong support level, while bearish expectations regarding oil prices and Fed policy uncertainty complicate the outlook [3]. Group 3: Technical Analysis and Key Data Indicators - The technical outlook for USD/CAD shows a clear short-term consolidation pattern around the 1.3870 level, with key support levels at 1.3850 and 1.3800, and strong support at 1.3500 [4]. - Key resistance levels are identified at 1.3910 and 1.3950, with the exchange rate expected to be influenced by upcoming economic data releases, including the US NFIB Small Business Confidence Index and the December CPI [4]. - The focus remains on the US CPI and EIA energy report, as stronger inflation combined with weak oil prices could drive the exchange rate higher, while weak inflation and a rebound in oil prices may test lower support levels [4].