伦敦金属交易所（LME）三个月期铜上涨逾4%，升至每吨13,655美元，时隔半月再度创下历史新高。 铜价引领基本金属全面上涨。分析师指出，此轮基本金属涨势主要源于宏观头寸调整而非基本面支撑。 美元处于四年低点附近，亦为金属市场涨势提供助力。 （文华综合） ...

美元指数的持续走弱，是货币政策预期、政治风险与全球资本再配置多重因素共同作用的结果。美联储 政策走向成为市场核心焦点，本周四美联储将公布利率决议，市场普遍预期其将维持利率不变，这是此 前连续降息以来的首次暂停。当前市场核心分歧在于美联储后续降息时点，若主席鲍威尔在决议中明确 回击政治压力、捍卫央行独立性，或短暂提振美元；若表态倾向渐进式降息，则可能进一步打压美元走 势。 美国国内政治格局的不确定性加剧了美元抛压。丹麦银行高级分析师耶斯佩尔.菲耶施泰特指出，充满 变数的美国政治环境已推动市场重新计入政治风险溢价，叠加市场对美联储独立性遭受政治干预的担 忧，美元资产吸引力显著下降。此外，美国政府面临1月底部分"停摆"的风险，明尼苏达州相关事件导 致国土安全部拨款法案通过受阻，进一步加大了美元的下行压力。 全球资本配置逻辑的转变也对美元形成压制。受美元信用与流动性担忧影响，"抛售美国"交易再度升 温，全球资金加速流向新兴市场与欧洲资产。数据显示，欧洲股市持续获得资金净流入，日本股票基金 流入规模创下阶段性新高，新兴市场股票指数连续多周上涨，跑赢美股主要指数。 截至2026年1月28日，美元指数持续处于弱势震荡格局， ...

2025年，地缘政治事件将世界的注意力转向了采矿业，突显了该行业多年来一直忽视的持续供应链风 险。White & Case LLP表示，2026年，所有人的目光都将集中在政府如何应对日益加剧的全球紧张局势 并减轻这些风险上。 根据其2026年矿业与金属调查，围绕关键矿产的政策可能会处于前沿和中心。近一半的受访者（47%） 认为政策变量（包括政府支持）是经济活动的最大驱动力。 White & Case在其报告中表示，向政策驱动的交易周期的转变已经改变了投资格局，以美国为例，其政 府的支持引发了人们对关键矿产项目的兴趣。 约三分之一的受访者认为，这将是2026年的一个关键趋势，近40%的受访者预计国家支持的融资将是发 达市场最常见的政策处方。 关键地缘政治因素 White & Case表示，对新采矿项目前所未有的政策支持以及贸易政策的波动反映了确保关键矿产供应的 地缘政治紧迫性。 正如其调查所强调的那样，2025年已经出现的供应链中断仍然是今年最大的风险之一。大致相同数量的 受访者认为国家政策的碎片化是另一个关键问题。 尽管如此，调查结果显示，在经历了一年的贸易冲击后，许多投资者看到了活动的增加或潜在的上涨。 近 ...

Group 1: Industrial Producer Price Index - In October 2025, Estonia's industrial producer price index increased by 0.6% year-on-year and 0.3% month-on-month [1] - The mining industry saw a year-on-year price increase of 3.5%, while manufacturing prices rose by 0.6% [1] - Energy production prices decreased by 1% [1] Group 2: Manufacturing Sector Price Changes - Within manufacturing, the wood and wood products industry experienced a year-on-year price increase of 4.7% [1] - The food production sector saw a price increase of 2.9% year-on-year [1] - The machinery repair and installation sector's prices rose by 2.1% year-on-year [1] - Conversely, the coke and refined petroleum products sector experienced a significant price drop of 17.9% year-on-year [1] - Basic metals manufacturing prices decreased by 6.9% year-on-year [1] - The computer and electronic products manufacturing sector saw a price decline of 2.3% year-on-year [1] Group 3: Export and Import Price Indices - In October 2025, Estonia's export price index increased by 1% year-on-year [2] - The import price index also rose by 0.7% year-on-year [2]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a cautious investment stance due to ongoing geopolitical risks and economic uncertainties, particularly in the context of U.S.-China trade relations and domestic consumption trends [1][3]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the recent surge in gold and base metal prices is driven by increased geopolitical risks and the potential for U.S. government shutdowns, suggesting that these factors will continue to support commodity prices in the near future [4][17]. - It emphasizes the importance of monitoring Japan's political changes, which could lead to both short-term asset price volatility and long-term structural economic reforms [5][23]. - The report notes that consumer spending data during the holiday period was weaker than expected, reflecting broader economic challenges, and suggests that high-valuation sectors are experiencing significant corrections [6][29]. Summary by Sections U.S.-China Trade Relations - The report discusses the impact of renewed U.S.-China tariffs, which have led to significant market volatility, particularly affecting U.S. stocks and Chinese concept stocks [3][10]. - It suggests that market sentiment has adjusted to these developments, potentially limiting asset declines [3]. Commodity Market Outlook - The report identifies a new bull market cycle for colored resources, driven by global supply chain adjustments and rising demand from emerging industries [2][15]. - It specifically highlights the bullish outlook for precious metals, basic metals, and strategic minor metals, with gold expected to benefit from declining real interest rates and de-dollarization trends [17][18]. Japanese Political Landscape - The report outlines the implications of recent political changes in Japan, which are expected to influence stock market performance and monetary policy [5][23]. - It notes that the new leadership may not pursue aggressive fiscal expansion, which could stabilize the yen and impact market expectations [24][27]. Consumer Trends - The report indicates that consumer spending during the recent holiday period was below expectations, with a notable shift in consumer preferences towards experience-based spending [6][29]. - It highlights that structural changes in consumer behavior, particularly among younger demographics, are shaping the retail landscape [29]. Market Valuation and Performance - The report assesses current market valuations as high, with both U.S. and Chinese markets showing signs of inflated valuations compared to historical levels [7][8]. - It notes that U.S. stock performance has been primarily driven by earnings revisions, while Hong Kong stocks have relied more on valuation increases [9]. Future Market Dynamics - The report expresses uncertainty regarding future market trends due to escalating unexpected events and the complexities of trade negotiations [10][11]. - It suggests that the credit cycles in both the U.S. and China are approaching a phase of recovery, with potential implications for asset prices [12][14]. Specific Metal Outlook - The report provides a positive outlook for silver, driven by industrial demand recovery and its correlation with gold price movements [20]. - It also highlights the potential for basic metals to enter a bull market due to supply disruptions and increasing demand from new industries [21][22]. Strategic Resource Management - The report emphasizes the growing importance of strategic resource management, particularly for critical minerals like cobalt, lithium, and rare earths, which are expected to maintain bullish trends [22].

Core Insights - Resource security, corporate overseas expansion, and technological competition remain the most important structural market clues, corresponding to the industry allocation framework of resources, overseas expansion, and new productivity [1] Group 1: Resource Sector - Precious metals, base metals, and energy metal prices have risen across the board, indicating an increase in the heat of the resource security theme [1] Group 2: AI Sector - The trend of AI expanding from enterprise-level to consumer-level is becoming increasingly evident, with competition for user entry points potentially leading to a significant boom in edge hardware and applications [1] Group 3: Market Dynamics - Recent incremental liquidity continues to be dominated by absolute return funds, and the market is expected to gradually return to structural characteristics [1] - The frequency of trade disputes is increasing in October, necessitating a firm commitment to the trend of corporate overseas expansion while downplaying external disruptive factors [1]

Core Insights - South Africa's GDP grew by 0.8% year-on-year in Q2 2025, exceeding most economists' expectations [1] - The actual GDP reached nearly 1.2 trillion rand in Q2 2025 [1] Economic Performance - The growth in Q2 was primarily driven by a recovery in the mining sector and increased consumer spending [1] - In Q1 2025, the GDP growth rate remained unchanged at 0.1%, with an overall economic growth of 0.7% in the first half of 2025 [1] - Eight out of ten economic sectors experienced growth in Q2, compared to only four in Q1 [1] Sector Contributions - The mining sector rebounded with a growth of 3.7% in Q2 after contracting over 4% in Q1, marking the fastest growth in over four years, driven by platinum group metals, gold, and chrome ore [1] - Agriculture grew by 2.5%, while manufacturing saw a growth of 1.8% [1] Consumer Activity - Consumer activity remained robust, with household consumption increasing for the fifth consecutive quarter by 0.8% [1] - Significant increases were noted in spending on dining, hotels, clothing, and footwear [1] Trade Dynamics - Imports decreased by 2.1%, mainly due to reduced imports of chemical products, machinery and electrical equipment, minerals, and agricultural products [1] - Exports fell by 3.2%, primarily due to declines in basic metals, agricultural products, and vehicles and transport equipment (excluding large aircraft) [1]

Core Viewpoint - The UAE is a pioneer in economic diversification in the Gulf region, leveraging its resource and geographical advantages to benefit from globalization, with continuous economic growth driven by industrial upgrading, internal and external demand linkage, and financial market openness [1]. Group 1: Economic Development Models - The UAE's economic development showcases two models: the Abu Dhabi model, which focuses on manufacturing and industrial upgrading, and the Dubai model, which is a composite of re-export trade, real estate, high-end tourism, and finance, reflecting differentiated and complementary economic transformation paths [1]. - Abu Dhabi's economic transformation began in the 1980s with the establishment of the Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, utilizing oil revenues for financial investments and developing downstream industries [11]. - Dubai established itself as a trade hub through the development of ports and free trade zones, with the Dubai Economic Agenda D33 aiming to double GDP and annual FDI inflows over the next decade [12]. Group 2: Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) - The UAE has attracted significant foreign direct investment through its free trade zones and favorable tax policies, with FDI net inflows increasing by 35% to $30.6 billion in 2023, accounting for 47% of the total net inflows in the West Asia region [29]. - The UAE has relaxed foreign investment regulations since 2019, allowing 100% foreign ownership in certain sectors and eliminating the need for local partners in distribution businesses [28]. Group 3: Economic Structure and Growth - As of 2023, the UAE's nominal GDP reached $504.2 billion, with the non-oil sector contributing approximately 75% to the GDP, reflecting a successful transition from an oil-dependent economy [9][14]. - The non-oil sector's GDP grew by 6.2% in 2023, offsetting the negative impact of oil production cuts, with significant contributions from manufacturing, wholesale and retail, and financial services [15][17]. Group 4: Energy Transition - The UAE is a benchmark for energy transition in the Middle East, pursuing a dual-path strategy of "greening fossil fuels" and expanding renewable energy, with a goal of increasing the share of clean energy to 50% by 2050 [37][40]. - The UAE's National Energy Strategy 2050 aims to invest $163 billion to enhance clean energy's share and reduce carbon emissions, with significant investments in renewable energy projects [42]. Group 5: Trade and Logistics - The UAE has established itself as a major re-export trade center, with re-export trade accounting for over 40% of total imports, totaling $167.8 billion in 2023 [21][22]. - The UAE's strategic location and extensive port infrastructure, including Jebel Ali Port, position it as a key player in global trade, with container throughput growing by 5.8% in 2022 [49]. Group 6: Real Estate and Tourism - The UAE's real estate market has seen significant price increases, with Dubai's property prices rising by 46% from 2021 to 2023, driven by foreign investment and tourism recovery [51]. - The UAE's tourism sector is supported by strategic infrastructure investments, with a goal of attracting 40 million visitors by 2031, contributing significantly to GDP [56][57]. Group 7: Financial Market Development - The UAE is evolving into a global financial center, attracting international financial institutions due to its geopolitical neutrality, independent regulatory framework, and favorable tax environment [61].

Group 1: Market Sentiment and Economic Indicators - The market perceives a decrease in the likelihood of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in June, dropping from 73.7% four weeks ago to 30.2% last week [1] - U.S. non-farm payroll data for April exceeded expectations, leading to a rebound in gold prices [1] - If a recession occurs in the U.S. in the second half of the year (excluding stagflation), gold prices may be negatively impacted [1] Group 2: Investment Strategies - Recommended strategies include shorting base metals and U.S. stocks, going long on silver, holding gold, and maintaining cash positions during market stabilization or rebound [1] - The risk of interest rate cuts hinges on persistent inflation in April and May, which may force the Federal Reserve to prioritize the dollar over economic and employment concerns [1] Group 3: Global Gold Demand and Supply - Global gold demand increased by 1% year-on-year to 1,206 tons in Q1, with central bank demand at 244 tons, remaining at the three-year quarterly average [2] - Investment demand for gold, including ETFs, surged by 170% year-on-year to 552 tons [2] - Despite a 38% increase in gold prices over the past 12 months, global mine supply only rose by 0.3% or 2.3 tons, indicating a lag in supply response to high prices [2] Group 4: Geopolitical Risks and Economic Policies - The geopolitical risks are expected to escalate significantly over the next two years [3] - Trump's strategy of increasing tariffs aims to influence consumer behavior while simultaneously seeking interest rate cuts to alleviate public financial burdens [3] - The relationship between tariffs and inflation is complex, as tariffs increase costs without directly correlating to currency depreciation [3]