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政策分化商品支撑澳元
Jin Tou Wang· 2026-01-13 02:41
Core Viewpoint - The Australian dollar (AUD) is experiencing limited fluctuations against the US dollar (USD), with market participants awaiting key economic indicators and Federal Reserve guidance [1] Group 1: Monetary Policy Divergence - The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has maintained the cash rate at 3.6% for three consecutive meetings, indicating a cautious policy stance [2] - Despite a temporary rise in inflation in 2025, the RBA expects inflation to return to the target range of 2%-3% by mid-2025, providing a stable foundation for the AUD [2] - The Federal Reserve's hawkish stance is increasing volatility in the AUD/USD pair, with expectations of a 2.5%-2.75% GDP growth in the US for 2026 and a gradual decline in inflation [2] Group 2: Economic and Commodity Price Support - The Australian economy is projected to grow by 1.5% in the 2025-2026 fiscal year, driven by private consumption and investment, with a recovery in the real estate market [3] - As a commodity currency, the AUD is supported by rising prices of export goods, particularly coal, which is expected to increase by 5%-7% in 2026 [3] - Market sentiment remains mixed, with some institutions believing that the RBA's hawkish tilt and rising commodity prices will support the AUD, while others caution that the Fed's policies may limit AUD gains [3] Group 3: Technical Analysis and Key Data Indicators - The AUD/USD pair is currently in a short-term consolidation phase, trading within the 0.6700-0.6720 range, with no clear trend signals from the moving averages [4] - Key support levels are identified at 0.6700 and 0.6680, while resistance levels are at 0.6720 and 0.6750, with potential for further upward movement if these levels are breached [4] - Upcoming critical data includes the US NFIB Small Business Confidence Index and CPI, which are expected to influence the strength of the USD and the AUD's performance [4]
美元指数震荡蓄力冲击 美联储动向成关键指引
Jin Tou Wang· 2026-01-13 02:31
Core Viewpoint - The US dollar index is experiencing a slight rebound, supported by hawkish comments from Federal Reserve officials and a resilient US economy, despite political pressures on the Fed [1][2]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - The US unemployment rate for December was reported at 4.4%, slightly below expectations, alleviating concerns about the labor market [2]. - The Federal Reserve's stance indicates no immediate reason for interest rate cuts, with GDP growth projected between 2.5% and 2.75% for 2026 [1]. Group 2: Market Performance - The dollar index has shown a fluctuating upward trend since the beginning of January, rising from 97.905 to around 98.90, with a cumulative increase of over 1% [2]. - The dollar index is currently trading above the 5-day and 10-day moving averages, indicating a bullish trend [2]. Group 3: Support and Resistance Levels - Key support has shifted to 98.87, previously a resistance level, with additional strong support between 98.40 and 98.50 [3]. - The 99.00 level is identified as a critical short-term resistance, with potential upward movement towards 99.22 and further resistance at 99.50 and 100.00 [3].
博弈升级!加元关键区间震荡待政策油价指引
Jin Tou Wang· 2026-01-13 02:28
截至2026年1月13日亚洲早盘,美元兑加元报1.3879,较前一交易日收盘价1.3892小幅回落,日内波动温 和,市场在多重因素交织下保持谨慎观望态度。最新实时汇率显示,1美元可兑换1.3880加元,汇价延 续近期窄幅震荡格局,尚未出现明确方向突破信号。 加拿大央行方面,近期议息会议中维持基准利率不变,行长明确表态尽管面临美国关税冲击,但加拿大 经济总体具备韧性,政策将依据通胀与经济数据动态调整。市场普遍解读其降息周期已临近结尾,后续 大概率维持当前利率水平,甚至存在加息可能性,这一预期为加元提供了关键利差支撑。 美联储这边,市场普遍押注2026年将延续降息进程,但内部对宽松节奏分歧显著。叠加美国经济部分数 据表现亮眼,美元指数虽受降息预期拖累,但单边下跌态势受到限制,间接影响美元兑加元的下行节 奏,使得加元升值步伐更为平缓。 作为典型商品货币,加元走势深度绑定国际原油价格。近期地缘冲突升级与能源供应链紧张形成支撑, 推动原油价格持续企稳,直接提振加元资产吸引力,对美元兑加元形成压制。但需警惕的是,世界银行 预测未来全球石油市场将出现供应过剩,需求增长疲软叠加非OPEC国家产量上升,油价存在走弱压 力,将对 ...
特朗普威胁对伊加征关税 巩固黄金牛市基础
Jin Tou Wang· 2026-01-13 02:17
【最新黄金行情解析】 昨天黄金价格飙升至4630一线,涨势异常迅猛。然而,市场不可能永远保持如此疯狂的上涨态势,必然 会出现回落。因此,当前阶段不宜盲目追高。下方的关键支撑位仍然是4550,这是前期的高点所在,目 前该支撑位依然稳固有效。从整体趋势来看,黄金价格继续向北攀升是没有问题的,上方目标可看向 4700甚至5000,但实现这些目标需要时间。 摘要今日周二(1月13日)亚盘时段,国际黄金目前交投于1026元/克附近,截至发稿,国际黄金最新报 1027.84元/克,跌幅0.33%,最高上探至1033.24元/克,最低触及1026.22元/克。目前来看,国际黄金短 线偏向震荡走势。 今日周二(1月13日)亚盘时段,国际黄金目前交投于1026元/克附近,截至发稿,国际黄金最新报1027.84 元/克,跌幅0.33%,最高上探至1033.24元/克,最低触及1026.22元/克。目前来看,国际黄金短线偏向震 荡走势。 【要闻速递】 美国总统特朗普周一在社交媒体宣布,将对所有与伊朗"有生意往来"的国家加征25%关税,称此为"最 终决定",意图加大对德黑兰政权的压力。此举正值伊朗陷入1979年以来最大规模抗议浪潮— ...
苯乙烯:港口去库叠加流动性偏紧 苯乙烯短期偏强
Jin Tou Wang· 2026-01-13 02:17
Market Overview - On January 12, the styrene market in East China saw an overall increase, supported by limited port inventory and a quick recovery in industry profits, leading to stable operations of styrene units [1] - The spot price for styrene was reported at 7140-7220 CNY/ton for January, with a slight increase in the February and March contracts [1] Profitability - As of January 12, the profit for non-integrated styrene units expanded to approximately 634 CNY/ton [1] Supply and Demand - Styrene weekly production reached 355,700 tons as of January 8, with an operating rate of 70.92%, reflecting a slight increase [1] - As of January 12, the total port inventory of styrene in Jiangsu was 100,600 tons, a decrease of 31,700 tons from the previous period [1] - The operating rates for downstream products as of January 8 were 46.72% for EPS (up 3.08%), 58.9% for PS (down 1.5%), and 69.8% for ABS (down 0.1%) [1] Market Outlook - The short-term supply and demand for styrene remain tight, with port inventories continuing to decline and limited circulating goods, indicating strong price support [2] - However, there is significant resistance from downstream sectors due to losses, leading to a decline in EPS operating rates and reduced production focus for ABS and PS, with expectations of inventory accumulation around the Spring Festival [2] - The potential for a rebound in styrene prices is limited due to constrained cost support, and a cautious approach is recommended for short-term trading strategies [2]
白银期货价格今日行情(2026年1月13日)
Jin Tou Wang· 2026-01-13 02:13
金投白银网提供今日白银期货价格走势_今天白银期货价格走势(2026年1月13日) 今日白银期货价格查询(2026年1月13日) | 名称 | 最新价 | 最高价 | 最低价 | 昨收价 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪银主力 | 20878.00 | 21518.00 | 20600.00 | 20945.00 | 打开APP,查看更多高清行情》 金投白银网(http://ag.cngold.org)为您提供最新白银期货价格、白银期货合约、白银期货交易以及白银期 货走势,更多白银期货行情敬请关注:白银期货专栏 备注:以上白银的价格仅供参考,请以官方报价为准。如对白银投资有疑问可咨询本站客服。 ...
鲍威尔调查撼美联储 金价冲高回落技术面牛
Jin Tou Wang· 2026-01-13 02:11
Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in gold prices is primarily driven by concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve following a criminal investigation into Chairman Jerome Powell, leading investors to seek safe-haven assets like gold [2] Group 1: Market Reaction - Gold prices experienced a temporary spike, briefly surpassing $4600 before slightly retreating, influenced by the market's reaction to the investigation news [2] - The dollar saw significant selling pressure as investors shifted towards gold, contributing to the upward movement in gold prices [2] Group 2: Economic Indicators - Upcoming macroeconomic data, particularly CPI and retail sales, are expected to influence market sentiment; a CPI exceeding expectations could reignite dollar strength, while a modest core CPI increase may not alter the current trend [2] - The mixed employment report from the previous week had initially supported the dollar but subsequently led to a reversal in market sentiment [2] Group 3: Technical Analysis - The current upward trend in gold remains strong, characterized by higher highs and higher lows, making bearish positions illogical without clear reversal signals [3] - Momentum indicators suggest the market is overbought, but this alone is not a sufficient reason to sell [3] Group 4: Support and Resistance Levels - Key support for gold is identified between $4500 and $4550, a psychologically significant range due to its historical high in December [4] - If this support level is breached, the next potential support is around $4380, followed by a trendline support near $4350 [4] - The absence of clear resistance points suggests that the next targets for gold prices could be $4600 and $4700, with Fibonacci extension levels at $4625, $4687, and $4720 being critical for profit-taking strategies [4]
PVC:出口扰动放大盘面波动 短期交易重点已非供需
Jin Tou Wang· 2026-01-13 02:11
【PVC现货】 国内PVC市场盘中大幅震荡,受周五晚间发布PVC取消出口退税影响,市场担忧远期出口竞争优势减 弱,盘中一度探低,今日市场黑色等产业盘面持续上涨推动成本支撑增强,叠加市场对政策前出口的预 期向好,午后市场止跌回涨,现货市场成交重心调整有限,华东地区电石法五型现货库提在4580-4680 元/吨,乙烯法僵持在4700-4900元/吨。 【PVC开工、库存】 开工:截止1月9日PVC粉整体开工负荷率为78.85%,环比上周77.34%提升1.51个百分点;其中电石法 PVC粉开工负荷率为80.23%,环比上周78.23%提升2个百分点;乙烯法PVC粉开工负荷率为75.69%,环 比上周75.28%提升0.41个百分点。周内检修企业较少,本周检修损失量下降;除此之外,部分前期降负 荷企业近期开工逐步提升。 库存:截至1月8日本周PVC社会库存统计环比增加3.48%至111.41万吨,环比节前增加4.72%,同比增加 40.98%;其中华东地区在106.04万吨,环比增加3.68%,同比增加40.69%;华南地区在5.37万吨,环比 减少0.26%,同比增加47.06%。 【PVC行情展望】 周一PVC ...
早籼稻期货主力合约保持不变 后市会如何发展
Jin Tou Wang· 2026-01-13 02:05
市场资讯: 本周二(1月13日),国内期市谷物板块大面积飘红,其中,早籼稻期货主力合约保持不变,截止发 稿,早籼稻主力合约报2500.00元/吨。 美国玉米主产州未来6-10日66.67%地区有较高的把握认为气温将低于正常水平,67%地区有较高的把握 认为降水量将接近正常水平。 美国农业部数据显示,本月2025/26年度美国玉米前景显示,产量增加,饲料及损耗用量上升,食品、 种子和工业用量减少,期末库存增加。 截至2025年12月1日,美国玉米库存总量为133亿蒲式耳,同比增加10%。其中农场库存量为87亿蒲式 耳,同比增加14%;非农场库存量为45.8亿蒲式耳,同比增加4%。玉米消费量为52.9亿蒲式耳,去年同 期为45.8亿蒲式耳。 据巴西农业部下属的国家商品供应公司CONAB,截至1月10日,巴西一茬玉米播种率为89.9%,上周为 88.3%,去年同期为87.1%,五年均值为85.7%;巴西玉米收割率为2.4%,上周为0.7%,去年同期为 2.3%,五年均值为4.2%。 ...
不锈钢:原料支撑维持偏强震荡 成本和需求博弈
Jin Tou Wang· 2026-01-13 02:05
【供应】据Mysteel统计,12月国内43家不锈钢厂粗钢预估产量326.71万吨,月环比减少22.6万吨,减幅 6.47%,同比减少5.09%;300系176.33万吨,月环比增加0.16万吨,增幅0.09%,同比减少5%。1月不锈 钢粗钢预计排产332.7万吨,月环比增加1.83%,同比增加16.27%;300系171.93万吨,月环比减少 2.5%,同比增加9.78%。目前钢厂整体减产力度有限,年末钢厂检修增加,亏损压力可能迫使更多钢厂 主动减产。 【现货】据Mysteel,截至1月12日,无锡宏旺304冷轧价格13900元/吨,日环比上涨100元/吨;佛山宏旺 304冷轧价格13800元/吨,日环比上涨50元/吨;基差215元/吨,日环比上涨105元/吨。 【原料】镍矿方面,菲律宾Benguet矿山1.25镍矿招标落地至32.5美元,环比上涨;印尼下调镍矿配额预 期,印尼1月(一期)内贸基准价上涨0.05-0.08美元/湿吨,内贸升水方面,当前主流升水维持+25。在镍的 带动下,镍铁价格涨幅明显,镍铁市场主流报价抬高至980-1000元/镍(舱底含税),主流成交价格集中在 950元/镍附近;铬铁现货资 ...